RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #45 (Clyde Drexler)

Post #1 » by **Doctor MJ** » Thu Nov 16, 2023 5:39 pm

Our system is now as follows:

1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.

2. Nomination vote now works the same way.

3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.

4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):

Spoiler:

Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):

Clyde Drexler

Draymond Green

Dwight Howard

Kevin McHale

Russell Westbrook

As requested, here's the current list so far along with the historical spreadsheet of previous projects:

Current List
Historical Spreadsheet

Joao Saraiva · Post #2 » by **Joao Saraiva** » Thu Nov 16, 2023 5:41 pm

Vote Dwight Howard

He's underrated overall. He's probably one of the best defenders of the modern era. I have him #2 behind Hakeem.

His defense was so good Orlando was the #1 defense for several years even with kind of meh players surrounding him.

On offense his reportoire wasn't the best, but he put work on that end as well. Great on PnR as the roll player, ugly but with gravity in the post. He should have been MVP in 2011 the way I see it.

His prime was long enough and he was able to adapt to new roles as well, culminating with a ring in Los Angeles where he was more important than he's given credit. Old Dwight held his own against Joker.... that's not easy.

Alternate Kevin McHale

Nomination Joel Embiid

Post #3 » by **penbeast0** » Thu Nov 16, 2023 5:43 pm

Vote: Kevin McHale: Scoring, defense, rings, consistency, a willingness to play roles that may not maximize his own value in order to help his team win.

Alt: Draymond Green Seems way too early but if I want to win a title, I take him over Baylor, Westbrook, or the other high volume scorers. Also considered Dwight Howard but (possibly like Green) it seems he needs such a specific combination of people around him to be great.

Nominate: Bobby Jones. More than a decade of straight 1st team All-Defense votes combined with high efficiency, though not high volume scoring, and good playmaking. Not a great rebounder for his position but could play 2-5 at either end. Probably the greatest glue guy in NBA history and in his time where he was the best player on his team (75 and 76 for example), his team was the best in the league both years though they came up short in the playoffs. Probably too early but haven't been convinced of anyone else here.

Alt: Jimmy Butler Convince me why Paul Pierce was better other than a pure longevity argument and I will switch, he was next on my list.

AEnigma · Post #4 » by **AEnigma** » Thu Nov 16, 2023 6:49 pm

VOTE: Clyde Drexler
Alternate: Kevin McHale
NOMINATE: Paul Pierce
AltNom: Dave Cowens

Not loving my choices for voting here. Drexler has the worst peak of these five; I also reluctantly think he probably had the best total career to this point.
McHale never achieved anything of note without Bird and was frequently not even the clear second-best player on his teams. But he had a consistent career, was a core piece of the second best team of the 1980s, and had a nice outlier peak in 1987.
Dwight has the best peak of these options but I think he was finished as a top fifty player after 2015 (and then probably never again even a top hundred player).
Westbrook is pretty comparable to Dwight in my eyes but with a worst peak and no real success as a franchise centrepiece.
Draymond has the shortest career, and I am mixed on his peak in an absolute setting (probably comparable to Westbrook’s on average), but he does get credit for being the best defender of his generation and the locker-room leader (for better and worse…) of the most successful franchise of the past decade.

Nominations are more interesting. Pierce has outstanding longevity and I think was an outright better player (if for era/team reasons a less consistently relevant one) than Drexler. I would have voted him in several spots ago, and while I think he clearly merits similar status to Jason Kidd, I suppose Kidd leading two teams to the Finals and being a nominal MVP contender can justifiably create some amount of separation.

Cowens will be my other nomination as a guy I see as essential to the “story” of the 1970s to a degree not true of Lanier (although I think Lanier was better), and therefore a relatively “necessary” top 50 inclusion. Right now it does not appear as though he will make the top 50, but I do want to push hard for him as the centrepiece of the most successful team of the mid-1970s and a sort of progenitor to what Draymond has been for the Warriors. In his 1972-77 prime, the Celtics won over 70% (58-win pace) of games with him and only 50% when he was out, as part of a strong half decade in which the Celtics made at least the conference finals every year.

Those who read my posts toward the end of the Peaks Project have already seen me post this article, but for those who have not, this is one of my favourite accounts of him:

Spoiler:

Cort Reynolds wrote: He may not have been named MVP of the NBA Finals in 1974 or 1976, but undersized Hall of Fame Boston center Dave Cowens was the key force in winning both clinching games of those memorable championship series for the Celtics.

In the 1970's no one played harder for Boston, or anyone else for that matter, with apologies to Jerry Sloan, Norm Van Lier and Dave DeBusschere, than the fiery 6-8.5 redhead.

In game seven of the epic 1974 NBA Finals, the Celtics faced the tall task of beating Milwaukee on the road. Buck center Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was in his youthful prime and enjoyed nearly a six-inch height advantage - which was probably close to a foot when reach is included - over Cowens.

…

The Bucks had forced a seventh game by winning a double overtime classic in Boston just two days earlier, when Jabbar's long running baseline hook over Celtic backup center Hank Finkel gave Milwaukee a see-saw 102-101 victory.

Cowens had fouled out earlier in overtime, or the outcome may well have been different, with the Celtics likely celebrating title number 12 at home.

John Havlicek had traded baskets with the 7-2 Jabbar throughout the final extra session, scoring nine of his 36 points in the second OT, but Kareem got the last shot in.

Yet a hustling play by Cowens that came to epitomize his career happened late in that classic sixth contest. Dave switched off on a pick defensively to cover Robertson, then used his quick hands to poke the ball away from the Hall of Famer.

The speedy center then out-sprinted the 6-5 guard for the loose ball, which rolled into the backcourt. Cowens dove for the ball and slid with it near the sidelines while the loose leather bobbled in and out of his arms. Oscar trailed the play and never left his feet, almost in disbelief at the bigger man's reckless dive.

Cowens left a sweat streak about 10 feet long on the old Garden parquet, probably along with some skin. While the Bucks argued that he never had possession of the ball, the referees correctly ruled that the 24-second clock had nevertheless run out to give Boston the ball.

Not long after, Cowens fouled out with just 13 points on five of 19 shooting, and his absence contributed to the series-tying Buck win. Determined to redeem himself, the proud Celtic star came out firing in game seven.

Boston came up with a new strategy to aid Dave. The Boston braintrust decided to pressure the aging Robertson hard with defensive ace Don Chaney while he brought the ball upcourt.

And then once Milwaukee was into its halfcourt offense, coach Tom Heinsohn had Paul Silas, Havlicek and others also double down and help while Cowens fronted and battled Jabbar for position.

After he was told about the change in defensive strategy, Dave would relate years later in an interview that he felt like saying, "Yes! I am finally going to get some help on this guy."

After having the redhead go one-on-one for six games with the much bigger man who was the total focal point of their offense, Jabbar had averaged almost 34 points per game, so the Celtic brass felt it had to try something.

By not having to expend as much energy defending the 7-2 Jabbar alone, it seemed as if Cowens had been unchained and energized for the decisive contest.

On offense, the muscular Cowens used his superior speed and quickness to take the slower Jabbar out on the floor and drive by him, taking advantage of Kareem's relative lack of lateral quickness.

The high-leaping, aggressive Cowens won the opening jump over Jabbar and tapped it it to Havlicek, who fed a cutting Chaney perfectly for a layup that set an immediate, positive tone in the contest for the Celtics.

As time ran out in the first period, Dave bombed a 25-footer from the right side at the buzzer that went straight in to give Boston a 22-20 lead.

The Celtics lengthened the lead late in the half as their defense stymied Jabbar and Robertson. Dave triggered the vaunted Celtic fast break with a defensive rebound and airborne outlet pass that led to a 16-footer by Don Nelson.

Shortly afterward, Cowens nailed consecutive foul line jumpers that gave the visitors a 53-40 intermission edge. Their defensive strategy, cooked up between games six and seven by Celtic patriarch Red Auerbach, Heinsohn and the legendary Bob Cousy, was working almost to perfection.

Robertson, who had played for Cousy in Cincinnati before their falling out led to the Big O's trade to Milwaukee, was hounded into perhaps the worst playoff game of his career at a very inopportune time.

If nothing else, the all-court pressure put on by the quicker Celtics rushed the Bucks and took vital seconds off the shot clock, forcing hurried decisions and field goal tries. With veteran leader and playmaker Robertson flustered, the Buck offense floundered.

As a result, scoring machine Jabbar was amazingly held without a single point in the entire second stanza and for half of the third period. This was a major drought when one realizes that Kareem came into game seven averaging his number per outing in the 1974 playoffs (33).

…

At the other end, Boston closed the door with a clever bit of body control and quick reactions. Cowens missed a half hook in the lane that richocheted off Jabbar's hands to a nearly-prone Westphal, who was just getting up off the hardwood after being floored while setting a screen.

Paul then hung in the air as he looked to shoot a short jumper over the looming 7-2 Buck center. But at the last second, he double-clutched and instead tossed a beautifully improvised short alley-oop pass to Cowens past Jabbar. Dave caught the ball in the air on the right side of the lane and cleverly kissed it in off glass before Kareem could recover. That was the final nail in the Milwaukee coffin.

…

Havlicek, who enjoyed a great series, was named Finals MVP even though he tallied a modest 16 points on six of 20 shooting in the decisive contest.

His second fourth quarter three-point play on a foul line jumper as he was hit in the stomach capped a decisive 11-0 spurt that put the game well out of reach, 98-79.

But the game seven MVP was definitely Big Red. The final box score showed Cowens with game-high totals of 28 points and 14 rebounds, compared to 26 and 13 for Jabbar.

Yet the considerable numbers did not show his great intangible contribution, as well. Or how much energy the fiery redhead had supplied his team. Nor how his defense had helped Kareem wear down and fade. He sank just six of 11 free throws in the game and went scoreless for over a third of the game in the crucial middle section when Boston took command.

Or how Cowens had ignited the deadly Celtic transition game with his defensive rebounding and quick outlet bullets, often firing his passes in midair while coming down with the carom.

…

Due in large part to the scrambling defensive strategy of Boston, Jabbar only took 21 shots in the decisive seventh contest, six below his series average for attempts to that point.

He also converted only 10 field goals after making 14.5 baskets per contest over the first six games - well below his 54 percent shooting accuracy to that point in the title series.

…

The grueling style of play that the speedy 1970's Celtics employed, in concert with a short bench and going deep into the playoffs each year (and thus having shorter off-seasons), had started to take a toll on the club. Plus, team captain Havlicek and sixth man Don Nelson were each 36.

In 1976, a grizzled Boston squad fought its way to the Finals despite a foot injury to Havlicek. It was the 13th Celtic championship series appearance in 20 years, and the last before the Larry Bird era.

…

It was Cowens who took over and scored seven points in a clutch 9-4 Celtic spurt that clinched the crown.

Despite being plagued with five fouls, the redhead gambled and came up with the biggest play of the game. As Adams drove along the right side of the lane, Dave dangerously reached in and poked the ball away from the Rookie of the Year, lunging to tip the loose sphere away from Adams.

He then snatched up the loose ball and dribbled, or more accurately roared, 80 feet upcourt at top speed on a 2 on 1 fast break, a runaway red-headed center locomotive.

As he approached the basket, the Celtic center crossed over to the right side and gave a slight head fake to freeze defender Heard. Dave then laid in a twisting backhanded layup over his shoulder while being fouled. He cashed in the free throw to give Boston a 71-67 lead and a huge momentum swing.

After a Phoenix score, Dave sealed Adams outside the low block and took a perfectly timed top-side feed from Charlie Scott before converting a right-handed layin for a 73-69 advantage.

Cowens then forced a bad miss by Adams by hotly contesting his 15-footer. Adams later canned two foul shots to cut the lead back to two. Yet Havlicek swished a clutch 18-footer from the left wing to make it 75-71.

After a Westphal miss, Dave took an entry pass and spun quickly along the right baseline with his trademark move past Adams for a pretty layup. The pet move gave Boston a little breathing room with a 77-71 margin at the 3:29 mark.

White banked in a tough right side runner and added a free throw to stretch the lead to nine, and it was all over but the shouting as Boston ultimately held on to win, 87-80.

After the final buzzer sounded, a tired Cowens hugged retiring teammate Nelson as they strode off the court as champions for the last time. For Nellie, it was a satisfying fifth ring after being released by the Lakers over a decade earlier.

With White struggling and Hondo hurt, it was clearly the clutch late offensive burst from Cowens that capped banner number 13. His aggressive, all-out defense also led to a drought of over five minutes without a basket for the Suns down the stretch.

Even though Dave scored 21 points in the decisive win, paced the defense and led all players in rebounds during the series while averaging 20.5 ppg, teammate JoJo White (21.7 ppg) was named Finals MVP.

Yet in true Cowens fashion, Dave probably didn't care that much, as long as Boston won. He was simply about winning, an undersized center who won on great athleticism (strength, speed, quickness and jumping ability), high basketball intelligence, skill, and a burning desire as bright as his red mane.

"There is no player with greater desire than Dave Cowens," said CBS commentator and fiery Hall of Famer Rick Barry during the 1976 Finals.

A powerful leaper, Cowens frequently won jump balls against much taller centers like Jabbar and an older Chamberlain, and used great positioning to frustrate Kareem and occasionally block his shots as well by forcing him to turn back to his right shoulder, away from his patented hook.

Back then a center jump ball was held at the start of each quarter, and if that rule seems antiquated, consider that the original rules up through the 1930's required that there be a center jump after every basket. So each quarter jump ball could be a key extra possession gained.

As Havlicek, who played the first seven seasons of his career with the great Bill Russell and then his final eight with Cowens, the 1970-71 co-Rookie of the Year, once said - "no one ever did more for the Celtics than Dave Cowens."

In the post-game six locker room TV interviews with CBS, Havlicek reinforced this claim. "We were able to keep Dave on the floor (not foul out), and that made the difference," said Hondo.

Unfortunately, Dave's all-out style and annual deep playoff runs eventually contributed to his body breaking down by the time he reached his early 30's.

…

Heinsohn, who after the death of Red Auerbach assumed the mantel of Mr. Celtic after 50-plus years as star player, championship coach and team announcer, called his 1970's Boston teams "the quickest of all Celtic clubs."

As such he designed a revolutionary point center/forward type of up-tempo offense to take advantage of the extraordinary blend of skills, athleticism and desire of his speedy red-headed center and Havlicek, as well as the sharpshooting White.

Those Celtics did not have a true point guard. White, Chaney and Havlicek shared the ballhandling duties, while Cowens often directed the offense from the top of the key with his passing, driving and shooting ability.

Joao Saraiva · Post #5 » by **Joao Saraiva** » Thu Nov 16, 2023 6:56 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Vote: Kevin McHale: Scoring, defense, rings, consistency, a willingness to play roles that may not maximize his own value in order to help his team win.

Alt: Draymond Green Seems way too early but if I want to win a title, I take him over Baylor, Westbrook, or the other high volume scorers. Also considered Dwight Howard but (possibly like Green) it seems he needs such a specific combination of people around him to be great.

Nominate: Bobby Jones. More than a decade of straight 1st team All-Defense votes combined with high efficiency, though not high volume scoring, and good playmaking. Not a great rebounder for his position but could play 2-5 at either end. Probably the greatest glue guy in NBA history and in his time where he was the best player on his team (75 and 76 for example), his team was the best in the league both years though they came up short in the playoffs. Probably too early but haven't been convinced of anyone else here.

Alt: Jimmy Butler Convince me why Paul Pierce was better other than a pure longevity argument and I will switch, he was next on my list.

Well I understand what you say about Green but... At his peak I believe Dwight could be the best player of the team. I don't see that with Draymond.

I also think Dwight's rim protection and ability to cover a ton of ground make him a better defender than Draymond.

On offense I trust Green to make a ton of good decisions, but I trust Howard's gravity a lot more.

What are your thoughts on these 3 points?

Post #6 » by **penbeast0** » Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:43 pm

I don't see Dwight as covering more ground in a halfcourt sense than Draymond; Dray is quicker even if Dwight is longer and stronger.

In his preferred 4 out team built around him Dwight certainly has an offensive gravity that Draymond will never have. The trouble is that Dwight seems to struggle in other settings and I am not sure that that is all because of age. Dwight never developed his offensive game much beyond the interior scoring and great athleticism he came into the league with. Top 100 player, sure. But I think Draymond could thrive in a variety of settings (much like Bobby Jones who I am nominating).

As for best player on a team, I believe that Dray could. Not the best offensive player, not if your team is any good, but the best overall player. Again, comparing to Bobby Jones (who I realize is a much more efficient scorer, for his day or any day, than Draymond has or will ever be), Bobby Jones was the best player on his Denver ABA teams. The best scorers were Mack Calvin, Ralph Simpson, then rookie David Thompson replacing Calvin, Bobby Jones was the 3rd option. But his game of quickness and ability to help and return fueled Larry Brown's jump and switch defense and the turnovers caused fueled the offense. And that team was the best RS team in the ABA for both the years they had Jones. Dray's impact could be similar on a team with good shooting where his defense and playmaking could have the kind of impact it had in GS. Think of the Splash Brothers teams but where Curry was merely a very good shooter with Curry's on/off ball skills rather than the GOAT shooter.

OldSchoolNoBull · Post #7 » by **OldSchoolNoBull** » Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:49 pm

I am having trouble feeling strongly about anyone this go-round. Everyone has issues(which I guess is to be expected at this point in the project):

Kevin McHale
I think McHale has always been somewhat underrated/underappreciated around here in relation to other PFs of his era - Barkley, Malone, etc - and I think the reason why that's the case must be the same reason I'm being cautious with him: he was never #1. Barkley was #1 for a long stretch of his career(and has a Finals appearance to show for it), and Malone was #1 or at least #1A for his whole career with Utah and has two Finals appearances to show for it.

McHale was always #2, and in the one season that Bird missed all but six games of, when McHale was the de facto #1, the Celtics dropped from 57 wins, 6.15 SRS, and +6.0 Net Rtg in 1987-88 to 42 wins, 1.26 SRS, and +1.2 Net Rtg in 1988-89, and they got swept in the first round(by the Bad Boys who would win the title). Now, I know that's post-foot-injury McHale, but his individual box numbers still look good, except that Parish had a higher WS/48 and BPM in the regular season(though not by a large margin, they were close).

In short, McHale's lack of floor-raising ability is a concern.

Dwight Howard
Nothing new to say here, his issues have been discussed ad nauseam - questionable on/off in the playoffs, poor leadership skills, the lack of accomplishment and seeming to wear out his welcome everywhere he went after Orlando, etc.

Draymond Green
Draymond has been at the center of a lot of discussion the past couple threads. It basically boils down to two questions:

1. Do his sparkling impact metrics overstate his actual impact or are they an accurate representation? This question is asked because he has never had to play without Steph except for that one tank season.

and

2. To what degree should his dirty play, antics, poor leadership be a detriment to his case? The 2016 suspension, the Jordan Poole incident, the incidents during the Kings playoff series this past Spring, and now he's suspended five games for what he did to Gobert? And I'm sure there are others. It's a pattern of behavior and it's up to the voter to decide how much it should matter.

Russell Westbrook
It is remarkable that he averaged a triple double four times, but his rTS in those seasons was +0.2, -3.2, -5.9, and -6.3 - three big negatives and one barely positive. And people have long suggested the big men in OKC were letting him get rebounds.

What sticks out to me is that, in those three years in OKC after KD left, the Westbrook-led Thunder lost in the first round all three times(even with Paul George and Melo onboard), and Westbrook's RAPM dropped from the 4.81, 4.54, and 5.78 he had recorded in his last three years with KD(when he wasn't averaging a triple double) to 2.91, 2.54, and 2.3 in the following three seasons without KD when he was averaging a triple double.

Post-OKC, the Wizards lost in the first round, and his tenures with the Rockets and the Lakers were both pretty bad.

In J.E.'s 1997-2022 RAPM - which I don't like to rely on too much, but the gap seems worth mention here - Westbrook comes in at #168(2.3 O, 0.3 D, 2.0 Total), the lowest of anyone on this ballot(McHale isn't part of that spreadsheet, of course).

I just don't see a lot of evidence of actual impact on winning.

Clyde Drexler
The main knock against Drexler is what penbeast pointed out two threads ago:

penbeast0 wrote:Drexler -- long consistent career gives him a total TS Add of 420.2 but with only 1 season barely above 100 (100.8). I think he gets overrated by the "2nd best SG to MJ" thought process. If you are going to talk about what wings bring more outside of scoring, I'm voting Jimmy Butler over Drexler as the scoring is similar and Butler brings significantly more defense.

Further, by my calculations, his career average TS Add is just 28. This really surprised me, as I always thought of him as better scorer than that.

Just for context, here is how the five players on the current ballot stack up in career average TS Add:

147.7 McHale
107.6 Dwight
28 Drexler
-13.9 Draymond
-73.2 Westbrook

It doesn't look very good for Drexler, but I'm going to push back just a little bit and do some friendly finessing of the data.

If you remove his first three seasons(when he was 21-23 years old) and his last two seasons in Portland(when that team was falling apart), his career average TS Add bumps up to 60.3 over ten seasons, 1986-1992 POR and 1994-1998 HOU.

If you narrow it further and look just at his six year prime in Portland, it bumps up to 74.4 over six seasons, 1986-1992 POR.

Those numbers still aren't that great, but not they're also not quite as damning.

Given his good-but-not-great offense based on those numbers, his decent playmaking skills, above average rebounding skills for his position, and the fact that he went two Finals as the #1 option, I am leaning towards him for this round, but my mind is not made up and I am open to counter-arguments.

Post #8 » by **trex_8063** » Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:59 pm

Induction vote: Clyde Drexler
Clyde provides a high-level distributor from the wing position with decent volume scoring, excellent offensive rebounding, and a certain degree of defensive disruption via coming up with steals (I could be mistaken, but I don't recall excessive stupid gambles; he was just long and athletic, and thus able to interrupt some passing lanes without cheating too far out of position).

His longevity of effectiveness is probably the single-best of all the players currently eligible, too: he was a substantially good [arguably borderline/fringe All-Star] by his second season; and he was still more or less a fringe All-Star in his 15th and final season, and he was generally durable, too. He didn't miss as many as 10 games in any season until his 10th year in the league. He NEVER missed as much as half the year; his 10th and 13th seasons ['93 and '96] are the only times he missed as much as a quarter of it.

While I think the reputation/narrative around him in '92 exceeded his actual quality as a player, I DO think he was a fringe top-5 player in the league that year. I think he was fringe top-5 in '88, too. And he has at least a few other seasons as a top-10 player, imo (I would say all of '89-'91, plus '95, maybe '87 as well), several additional seasons of All-Star quality or nearly so.

There has been some nay-saying regarding his quality as a teammate and/or leader, mostly by way of him just not being the vocal [or whatever] leader type, though at times it felt like this criticism was being dealt with the same severity as one being a team cancer (which I certainly never heard anything of the sort about Clyde Drexler).
Short any type of SERIOUS toxicity issues, I'm not sure how relevant it is vs the current line-up of candidates (save maybe McHale, and to a lesser degree Westbrook).

Alternate induction vote: Russell Westbrook
idk, he just feels like the best of what's left. I've been disappointed with his inability to adapt his playing style as he ages and/or recognize that he just can't shoot (there's a reason your defender is giving you a 5-foot cushion).
However, his ability to co-anchor some contender-level teams [or nearly so] with Durant (and often not a lot of other help), as well as his remarkable volume production (I must admit there is a part of me that is impressed by that; just not TOO impressed [else I would have been championing him ~10 spots ago]).......it's worth serious consideration.

He's played 15 seasons [like Drexler], and also like Drexler they've been mostly injury-free, and he was decent by his second season. Somewhere in that '15-'17 range [arguably ALL THREE seasons] I think he peaked higher a little than Drexler.......but he just hasn't maintained value late in his career (for reasons alluded to above) the way Drexler was able to. I also don't think his impact ever quite matched his box/volume production. Those factors keep him below Clyde for me, despite the historical relevance of being an MVP and having an historic statistical season to his credit.

Overall, I feel like he's deserving somewhere around here, and I tentatively have him ranked above all candidates except Drexler.

Nomination: Paul Pierce
Alt Nomination: Pau Gasol

As per prior discussions, I think Pierce is very close with Drexler. Similar overall [though more highly variable] team success in their respective careers, a better team defender with similar [arguably marginally better] longevity of effectiveness, slightly better scorer overall (though clearly worse turnover economy gives me some reservation in saying that with any force).......though substantially lesser passer/playmaker, imo, and feels slightly less historically relevant wrt accolades [for whatever that's worth].
But obviously very very close to Drexler, imo. Were he on the ballot, he'd likely be my alternate. Hell, I could even be talked into making him my primary pick.

And Pau is a guy I'm sort of surprised we're not talking about yet. How is his career notably lacking in comparison to Kevin McHale's, for example?

Post #9 » by **Clyde Frazier** » Thu Nov 16, 2023 8:12 pm

Vote 1 - Clyde Drexler
Vote 2 - Dwight Howard
Nomination 1 - George Gervin
Nomination 2 - Willis Reed

Drexler was a uniquely talented player at the SG position, using his combination of size and athleticism to his advantage on both ends of the floor. Combine that with an excellent basketball IQ, and he was one of the more complete and versatile players we've seen in this league.

I've heard drexler get criticized here and there for not being able to get over the hump in his first 2 finals appearances. However, he went up against the defensive juggernaut pistons and all time great bulls, holding his own in both series. When he went on the improbable championship run with no HCA in houston, he played a major role in their success. It was even more impressive to see him perform at that level toward the end of his prime (year 12). See finals production here:

'90 (5 games) - 26.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 6.2 APG, 1.8 SPG, 59.8% TS, 118 ORtg

'92 (6 games) - 24.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 5.3 APG, 1.3 SPG, 52.2% TS, 113 ORtg

'95 (4 games) - 21.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 6.8 APG, 1 SPG, 56% TS, 126 ORtg

Post #10 » by **trex_8063** » Thu Nov 16, 2023 8:32 pm

Clyde Frazier wrote:
I've heard drexler get criticized here and there for not being able to get over the hump in his first 2 finals appearances. However, he went up against the defensive juggernaut pistons and all time great bulls, holding his own in both series. When he went on the improbable championship run with no HCA in houston, he played a major role in their success. It was even more impressive to see him perform at that level toward the end of his prime (year 12). See finals production here:

'90 (5 games) - 26.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 6.2 APG, 1.8 SPG, 59.8% TS, 118 ORtg

'92 (6 games) - 24.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 5.3 APG, 1.3 SPG, 52.2% TS, 113 ORtg

'95 (4 games) - 21.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 6.8 APG, 1 SPG, 56% TS, 126 ORtg

Yeah, I was actually just looking this up and found that---despite "only" three Finals appearances---he's actually 45th all-time in points scored in the NBA Finals, 40th in assists, and tied for 44th in steals.

And in addition to that statline in the '95 Finals, it's worth noting some other performances deserving of praise in that playoff run.....

For instance, the Rockets likely don't even make the Finals [or even the WCF] if Drexler doesn't go off in game 7 of the WCSF for 29 [@ 65.7% TS]/8/4 with 0 turnovers in this 1-pt victory on a night where Hakeem sort of struggled.

Or perhaps they don't even advance past Utah in the 1st round if Drexler isn't absolutely singing the Jazz to the tune of 25.2 ppg @ 72.1% TS (31/10/3 [although 4 turnovers] @ 73.3% TS in narrow game 5 win).

trelos6 · Post #11 » by **trelos6** » Thu Nov 16, 2023 10:25 pm

Vote: Dwight Howard

One of the best defensive players of all time. His peak was arguably a top 3 player in the league. Offensively,he was limited, but what he did was effective. Great catch radius. Some monster dunks. 20.7 pp75 on +8.7% rTS. In the playoffs, he was still 23.2 pp75 on +10.7% for his 3 year peak. He was a monster down low.

I have him with 3 weak MVP seasons, 8 All NBA, 9 All Star, and 12 All D.

Alternate vote: Westbrook

See nomination description below.

Nomination: Joel Embiid

Alt. Nom: Gary Payton

It comes down to Westbrook v Embiid. Guys like Pierce, McHale, Payton, Isiah, didn’t reach the heights of Westbrook or Embiid. One was a high octane play creator, the other a fantastic defensive presence. Both were force of will scorers. I think I’ll give the nod to Jojo. Although I can appreciate the Westbrook argument.

It was between Pierce and Payton. I’ll give it to Gary this round.

WintaSoldier1 · Post #12 » by **WintaSoldier1** » Fri Nov 17, 2023 12:25 am

Winning Bias is quite the force

Post #13 » by **penbeast0** » Fri Nov 17, 2023 3:39 am

WintaSoldier1 wrote:Winning Bias is quite the force

It depends why you are winning, why you are losing. Why was Kobe/Pau/Odom successful when I believed they didn't have the talent? Why were Lanier/Bing unsuccessful when they were classy guys who won their matchups most nights? Is it just defense or is there more? You have to look at why teams are winning and losing so you should have some degree of winning bias. There is more to basketball than just a box score.

Samurai · Post #14 » by **Samurai** » Fri Nov 17, 2023 3:48 am

Vote for #45: Russell Westbrook. Not a fan and I wouldn't necessarily want him on my team if I were picking from scratch. But I'm having trouble continuing to not nominate him based on my personal playstyle preferences. MVP in 2017 and 9-time All NBA Team member (2 first team, 5 second team and 2 third team selections). Led the league twice in points/game and three times in assists/game. I don't highly value his triple doubles since I tend to think he was a stat padder, particularly his rebounding, but he was still a very good defensive rebounder for a guard.

Alternate vote: Kevin McHale. Six-time All Defensive Team member , three of them on the first team. Was also an excellent low post shooter with an unstoppable plethora of moves. I may be in the minority on this but I also think he could have been a decent 3-point shooter if he had been raised in today's game; he made 36% in 90-91 on over 100 attempts and was a career 80% FT shooter. Not the quickest defender on the perimeter but he made up for it with his freakish wingspan.

Nomination: George Gervin. Outstanding scorer who led the league in scoring 4 times (only Jordan, Wilt and KD have more scoring titles and tied with Kobe and Harden). Named All NBA/ABA nine times (5 of them to the First Team), played in 12 straight All Star games, and scored double figures in 407 consecutive games. Not a very good defender although he was a very good defensive rebounder and shot blocker for a guard. And the eye test tells me that he had the best floating finger roll off a drive that I've ever seen (Wilt's was off a post-up, not a drive!).

Alternate nomination: Joel Embiid. Lack of longevity/durability has been my biggest reservation about nominating him. But his accomplishments when healthy are getting too hard for me to ignore. MVP, six-time all star, three consecutive years leading the league in scoring, six-times top ten in rebounds/game, and three times All Defensive Second Team.

HeartBreakKid · Post #15 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Fri Nov 17, 2023 8:13 am

Vote is for Dwight Howard - Defensively dominant for 3-4 years in a row. He was quite good his first couple years in Houston as well. Short prime, but I feel that his scoring around the rim put some serious double, even triple team pressure that made him a more reliable scorer than Westbrook, Green, and in my opinion, even Drexler.

Alternate vote is for Kevin McHale - I actually have Kevin two spots higher than Dwight Howard on my list from 2020 but I can't remember why. Feel like Dwight is just a more proven force and is quite a bit ahead of Kevin as a defensive player, to the point where I'm suspecting that people are drastically overstating Dwight's "lack of portability" (I'm not even sure if that is true).

As for Drexler, has nothing to do with him losing in the finals (isn't going to the finals in his favor?), he wasn't a great half court player. Yes, he has high totals but he wasn't incredibly efficient as a scorer, had high assist but wasn't some guy who was orchestrating offenses (that was Porter), he played good defense but wasn't anchoring any (never even made an all-defense team). Drexler benefits a LOT from aesthetics and narrative way more than it hurts him.

Green is interesting - when I compare him to Kevin I can see an argument, but when I compare him to Howard it feels like I am reaching and playing off of narratives.

Westbrook - Similar harshness I had with Drexler except I think Westbrook actually is an underrated engine. He can control the tempo and did become a legitimately great playmaker.

My nomination is for Willis Reed - Arguably just as good as Frazier albeit his career feels even shorter.

My alternate nomination is fur Joel Embiid - I just saw Samurai nominate him and I'm trying to think "why not"? Hasn't had a great post season yet that I can recall, but seems in rank with the guys here, if not better because he seems a step above most of them in the RS.

trelos6 · Post #16 » by **trelos6** » Fri Nov 17, 2023 9:17 am

penbeast0 wrote:
[b]Nominate: Bobby Jones. More than a decade of straight 1st team All-Defense votes combined with high efficiency, though not high volume scoring, and good playmaking. Not a great rebounder for his position but could play 2-5 at either end. Probably the greatest glue guy in NBA history and in his time where he was the best player on his team (75 and 76 for example), his team was the best in the league both years though they came up short in the playoffs. Probably too early but haven't been convinced of anyone else here.

Love Bobby Jones. He’s a bit tricky as he was limited by minutes, but amazing impact.

I had him in the 80’s, but you could throw a blanket over 50-100. It’s that close.

Post #17 » by **trex_8063** » Fri Nov 17, 2023 4:47 pm

trelos6 wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
[b]Nominate: Bobby Jones. More than a decade of straight 1st team All-Defense votes combined with high efficiency, though not high volume scoring, and good playmaking. Not a great rebounder for his position but could play 2-5 at either end. Probably the greatest glue guy in NBA history and in his time where he was the best player on his team (75 and 76 for example), his team was the best in the league both years though they came up short in the playoffs. Probably too early but haven't been convinced of anyone else here.

Love Bobby Jones. He’s a bit tricky as he was limited by minutes, but amazing impact.

Don't know where you stand on Draymond now, or where you stood on Manu a couple weeks back [he went #39], but.....

Jones averaged only about a minute-and-a-half fewer per game than Draymond, and nearly 2 mpg MORE than Manu. He played nearly 400 MORE career minutes than Draymond, and about 1100 fewer minutes than Manu.

That said, I was/am of the opinion that we've gone too soon on Manu and Draymond. But merely pointing out that minutes would seem to be a notable issue among this cohort of voters.

Djoker · Post #18 » by **Djoker** » Fri Nov 17, 2023 7:22 pm

Reading the last few threads, I'm actually a bit more impressed with Drexler now. His all-around game has always gone under the radar but his scoring efficiency is quite a bit better than I thought particularly in the Finals which is a big deal.

Post #19 » by **Doctor MJ** » Fri Nov 17, 2023 7:23 pm

So I'm going to bring up a guy who I've been pondering for a few years now as someone whose +/- data makes him seem better than anyone - including myself - seems to see him as. I'm not bringing him up with the expectation of championing him right now, but I feel like discussion on him is important:

Jayson Tatum.

It's not controversial that Tatum has been the best player on his team, and his team has been one of the best from this era. Aside from the fact that the team hasn't won the big one yet though, I don't think the scale of his success to this point is something many have really grappled with.

If I list out the top players by total +/- for both RS & PS beginning from Tatum's rookie year, here's what I get:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo 2973
2. Jayson Tatum 2955
3. Nikola Jokic 2650
4. Steph Curry 2583
5. Joel Embiid 2528

And if I focus just on guys who played a lot with Tatum in this time frame:

1. Jayson Tatum 2955
2. Jaylen Brown 1644
3. Al Horford 1587
4. Marcus Smart 1510

Notice how huge that gave is.

Note also that Tatum has a massive leader over everyone else in the league this season:

1. Jayson Tatum 180
2. Jrue Holiday 132
3. Nikola Jokic 120
4. KCP 117
5. Kristaps Porzingis 114

so likely Tatum will have the lead on the first list soon enough.

So all of this leads to the big question:

Is there an explanation for this other than that Tatum has been among the most valuable players in the league all through this time?

And then the practical question for us:

Should more active players be voted in before Tatum?

For reference, here are active players who made the list last time that are not yet voted in:

Russell Westbrook
Damian Lillard
Draymond Green

And here are some other active players that seem like they'll be stronger candidates this time around:

Jimmy Butler
Rudy Gobert
Joel Embiid
Luka Doncic

Curious how y'all are seeing him.

OldSchoolNoBull · Post #20 » by **OldSchoolNoBull** » Fri Nov 17, 2023 8:12 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:So I'm going to bring up a guy who I've been pondering for a few years now as someone whose +/- data makes him seem better than anyone - including myself - seems to see him as. I'm not bringing him up with the expectation of championing him right now, but I feel like discussion on him is important:

Jayson Tatum.

It's not controversial that Tatum has been the best player on his team, and his team has been one of the best from this era. Aside from the fact that the team hasn't won the big one yet though, I don't think the scale of his success to this point is something many have really grappled with.

If I list out the top players by total +/- for both RS & PS beginning from Tatum's rookie year, here's what I get:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo 2973
2. Jayson Tatum 2955
3. Nikola Jokic 2650
4. Steph Curry 2583
5. Joel Embiid 2528

And if I focus just on guys who played a lot with Tatum in this time frame:

1. Jayson Tatum 2955
2. Jaylen Brown 1644
3. Al Horford 1587
4. Marcus Smart 1510

Notice how huge that gave is.

Note also that Tatum has a massive leader over everyone else in the league this season:

1. Jayson Tatum 180
2. Jrue Holiday 132
3. Nikola Jokic 120
4. KCP 117
5. Kristaps Porzingis 114

so likely Tatum will have the lead on the first list soon enough.

So all of this leads to the big question:

Is there an explanation for this other than that Tatum has been among the most valuable players in the league all through this time?

And then the practical question for us:

Should more active players be voted in before Tatum?

For reference, here are active players who made the list last time that are not yet voted in:

Russell Westbrook
Damian Lillard
Draymond Green

And here are some other active players that seem like they'll be stronger candidates this time around:

Jimmy Butler
Rudy Gobert
Joel Embiid
Luka Doncic

Curious how y'all are seeing him.

So, the Tatum/Brown Celtics have been one of my favorite teams in the NBA over the last couple seasons, so I have no bias against here.

But while I appreciate all of your statistical arguments - Tatum has been impressive - I think it is considerably too early for him for a couple of reasons.

1. I am generally very cautious about active players making the list who haven't before, or making big jumps, especially when they haven't been playing for that long, which brings me to...

2. He's only just started his seventh season. I'm not a big longevity guy, but it just doesn't seem like enough. I'm somewhat ok with Jokic getting in as early as he did despite only playing eight seasons, and I voted for Kawhi multiple times despite his durability issues, because of what they managed to accomplish in that time. Kawhi won two championships and two Finals MVPs, Jokic won multiple MVPs and a championship. Tatum hasn't done these things yet.

3. In the biggest playoff series of his career thus far - the 2022 Finals - Tatum laid an egg. At 21.5ppg - despite playing 40.7mpg - it was his lowest scoring volume in a playoff series since 2020. But the volume wasn't really the issue, it came on a very inefficient 48.1% TS. Contrast this to a guy on the current ballot, Drexler - whose good play in Finals series(or at least two out of three of them) may end up being a factor in getting him in soon. It's probably not fair to hold one series against a guy like that, but it was one of the first things I thought of.