Wembanyama. I'm concerned

[mpoo_sin]

Everybody was losing their minds after he scored against a team where his main defender under the rim was Eric freaking Gordon.
Seriously watch the game again. Over half of his points are right at the rim while being guarded by a 6’5ish player.
Let s hope that the hypetrain is not putting too much pressure on the guy. Cs always need 1 or 2 seasons to really get going.

Signs were there early that he would not be the destroyer of worlds. He wasn t even the best rookie in his very first game. Lively II clearly outplayed him in game 1 of the season.

[Bornstellar]

I'm not. He has great shooting form. Give the kid more than a handful of games before you start judging him. And keep in mind he is not only anchoring the entire defense by himself he is also tasked with being the focus of the other teams defense at 19 and has no PG or any real system around him to get him easy looks. He's also gone up against much better defensive bigs lately (Gobert, Poeltl/OG, M. Robinson, Bam, etc) so it's not surprising they're giving him a tougher time

I'm more worried about the rest of the team. I have zero doubts Victor will be an MVP level player within 5 seasons

[Richard Miller]

He has shown some insane flashes for a rookie. He is going to be very good for a long time.

I am surprised he doesn't rebound more consistently though

I don’t know why a guy that tall is constantly bombing threes instead of being under the basket scoring and grabbing rebounds. It’s really odd that Pop allows it.

Is he even going to be/play a center or more like a wing or what? Not sure I understood

[zimpy27]

The comparisons to Durant are silly.. He's very unlikely going to be as good of a shooter Durant. He's very unlikely to shoot as well as Dirk either.

Durant had a poor rookie season but he shot 40% from 3 in college. Wemby shot 27.5% from 3 last year.

Wemby has being playing professional leagues like Luka did before he entered the NBA, he's more prepared for this rookie season than Durant was. Victor will likely be a career 30-34% 3 shooter.

This whole focus on his offense is taking away from his elite defense. And I feel like he's already going to be a disappointment to many of you because of ridiculous expectations.

[DCasey91]

Just quickly did a 2man lineup:

Wemby, Sochan: 92 Ortg/117 Drtg
Wemby, Vassell: 100 Ortg/102 Drtg
Wemby, Johnson: 106 Ortg/117 Drtg
Wemby, Jones: 121 Ortg/102 Drtg

Jones also basically has the best net with Vassell (123/102) and really good with Sochan (118/108)

Am I surprised? No. Spurs really have only one PG.

I do think there’s some in house stuff that’s not being mentioned. Whether on purpose I’d say so.

They should be better. If you wanted strictly objectively best results stagger Jones with Wemby always.

On Wemby sooner rather than later he has to nail a couple of spots wherever it is that doesn’t matter. I thought from the euro stuff until now there’d be more polish/better shot selection.

But personally it isn’t helping his development by not putting on at least a blinker on him.

[tamaraw08]

To be fair, Paolo also shot only 42% and 31% from 3 last season. He's already up to 45% and 40% in just his second season. It takes time for rookies. Wemby should be fine as he matures and evolves as a player.

But is Paolo Banchero the measuring stick for Wemby? Shouldn t the greatest rookie of all time be better than Paola Banchero in his first season?

It's a fair point but measuring potential is very tricky. You also factor in the Hype being generated by the league as a marketing tool to build excitement. Having said that, I remember wanting to puke watching the horrible games of Brandon Ingram his first year in LA. Then year 3, boom, the guy looked so different and vastly improve. Not saying he'll be a Superstar but the difference here is the 19 year old is a freaking 7'4", He develops decent handles and shooting form, he'll just be impossible to guard even from taking 15 footers or cutting hard and get lobs.

[JustLucky]

im way more concerned with him getting a foot injury

[WestGOAT]

He still adjusting to the NBA game and from the games I've seen hasn't found a way to consistently use his physical traits to consistently dominate the game. He's operating like a 7'4 SG out there as opposed to the unicorn he was hyped up to be coming into the league. Compared to some of the most hyped prospects, hiss numbers are comparable outside of Luka who still efficient coming into the league.

An 11 game sample is super small but just for your reference:

Durant: 19.7pts, 4.4reb, 1.7ast, 1.5stl, 1blk, 3.5tov on 47.8%TS (38/28/84) in 34.1.mpg with 18.5FGA (5.5 3PA & 5 FTA)

Wemby: 18.6pts, 9.3reb, 2.5ast, 1stl, 2.4blk, 3.9tov on 52.1%TS (43/28/77) in 30mpg with 16 FGA (5.5 3PA & 4.3 FTA)

LeBron 16.5pts, 6.5reb, 6.5ast, 1.3stl, 0.8blk, 3.6tov on 48%TS (43/33/60) in 40.9mpg with 15.5 FGA (2.5 3PA & 3.8 FTA)

Luka: 20.2pts, 6.5reb, 4.2ast, 0.8stl, 0.3blk, 4.2tov on 60%TS (48/40/76) in 34.7mpg with 15 FGA (6.5 3PA & 4.2 FTA)

What stands out his he's playing less minutes to start than the other 3 listed and these numbers don't even showcase his defensive impact when out there. I think he's doing fine, if he had made 1 more 3pter his percentage would have been right at 30%

On- ,Off-court and net-DRtg for other notebale rookies below.

Pts per 100 Possessions - Defense: On, Off, On-Off per https://www.pbpstats.com/

Durant (Full Regular Season):
112.172 | 103.257 | 8.9

Wemby (11 Games):
116.017 | 127.500 | -11.48

LeBron (Full Regular Season):
104.825 | 100.778 | 4.05

Luka (Full Regular Season):
113.028 | 109.371 | 3.66

AD (Full Regular Season)
110.611 | 109.543 | 1.07

Pts per 100 Possessions - Defense: On, Off, On-Off per https://www.basketball-reference.com/
Tim Duncan (Full Regular Season)
97.4 | 98.2 | -0.8

Two things:
- Remains to be seen if Wemby can maintain this on/off impact on defence
- Even if that's the case, and more importantly, what does it really mean if the Spurs defence are still "meh" at best even when he is on the floor: 116.017 DRtg is still near bottom-5 of the league

[Bornstellar]

Again, it's been 11 games. Spurs have had 3 blowout losses where Wemby played like a 19 year old rookie that are heavily influencing some of these numbers. He's had games where he's looked dominant on both ends, games where he hasnt shot well but still put together a nice all-around game, and a couple of games where he (and the entire team) looked really bad.

For all the talk of him being a terrible shooter - If you look at individual games, he's had 4 games where he's hit multiple three pointers at above 40% clip, including two games with 3 made threes on 5 and 6 attempts, respectively. He's also had 4 games where he's missed all of his attempts. The other two games he shot 33% and 22% on 6 and 9 attempts, respectively. I know a couple of these have also been end of quarter heaves including one from half court in the last game. He is inconsistent as you would expect from a rookie. But his form is good and he has already had games where he has shot lights out. Calling him a bad shooter after his first 11 games is silly. As someone else pointed out earlier, plenty of other guys known for being knockdown shooters have started the year well below their typical percentages. It's normal, as the sample size grows it will level out

Let's see how he looks mid-January before we start jumping to conclusions

[dockingsched]

I don’t understand how anyone can watch his form, movement, body control, handles, defensive abilities, physical tools, and be concerned.

Basketball is about more than just physical tools. If Wemby is a bad shooter, as the numbers suggest, he’s going to fall way short of expectations.

You think the shooting numbers for a 19 year old in his first 10 games has long term predictive value?

[Vampirate]

To be fair, Paolo also shot only 42% and 31% from 3 last season. He's already up to 45% and 40% in just his second season. It takes time for rookies. Wemby should be fine as he matures and evolves as a player.

But is Paolo Banchero the measuring stick for Wemby? Shouldn t the greatest rookie of all time be better than Paola Banchero in his first season?

Tbf Wemby hasn't played a full season yet.

The peaks and valley's are going to be huge.

[Vampirate]

Agreed. Wemby obviously has all the talent and physical tools but I just don t see superstar. Part of his initilal appeal was that he is Kevin Durant but 7 4 insted of 6 10. But Wemby can t shoot which severely limits his upside. Now you might say Giannis can t shoot and he is dominating the league. But Giannis is 6 11 and part of the reason he is so dominant is because he bulked up. Wemby can t bulk up, he is too tall and added weight will significantly increase his risk of injury.

Gonna regret these posts.

Maybe. Still this is my opinion. Again I m not saying Wemby will become a bad player. Just don t see him become an upper echelon superstar player.

There's quite a lot of Superstar-Generational players that weren't putting up eye popping stats in their first year.

Giannis
Jokic
Kawhi
KD
Lebron
Steph
Tatum

It's almost like rookies are far from an unfinished product

[NO-KG-AI]

I wish I could find my post about people going into full panic if and when Victor’s fg% was poor because of body strength issues and that his shooting runs kinda hot and cold, but he still takes them.

The shine wears off the greatest prospects ever so fast on this board. I remember when Kevin Durant went from 7’ Tracy McGrady who is the best prospect to the black Adam Morrison within a year

Victor has a ton of growing to do physically and skill wise. Way too early to panic.

[ForeverTFC]

Who said Victor was a great shooter coming in? I feel like this is just a lack of knowledge clouding your judgement. Here are his numbers last season, he took a lot of bad shots then and he's taking a lot of bad shots now: https://www.basketball-reference.com/international/players/victor-wembanyama-1.html

Victor is a prospect. His generational skill is his mobility at his size. He has a nice shooting form and decent handles for a guy that large, but neither have been hyped to be generational. I suspect you'll see a pretty big change in efficiency once Pop starts giving him a shot profile to be held accountable to. This season is just for them to find out what that profile could be and develop in that direction.

[ropjhk]

He rushes his shots for no reason. Part of the advantage of being so tall is that nobody can bother his shot. He'll often rush shots when instead he should focus more on getting to his spot on the floor and taking his time as his shot is near unblockable. He still plays like a nervous rookie (because he is).

He has really bad shot selection. That's something that can be corrected with experience. The good things he has demonstrated make it obvious that he's going to be a dominant force once he finally figures out how to put it all together.

[zero rings]

I don’t understand how anyone can watch his form, movement, body control, handles, defensive abilities, physical tools, and be concerned.

Basketball is about more than just physical tools. If Wemby is a bad shooter, as the numbers suggest, he’s going to fall way short of expectations.

You think the shooting numbers for a 19 year old in his first 10 games has long term predictive value?

That and his poor shooting numbers in the French league, yes. It’s literally all the data we have and the only thing we can use to make predictions.

[ropjhk]

Basketball is about more than just physical tools. If Wemby is a bad shooter, as the numbers suggest, he’s going to fall way short of expectations.

You think the shooting numbers for a 19 year old in his first 10 games has long term predictive value?

That and his poor shooting numbers in the French league, yes. It’s literally all the data we have and the only thing we can use to make predictions.

We also have game footage to make predictions and the way he moves on the court, leverages his size and plays defense is more than enough to predict that he's going to be a great player.

[zero rings]

You think the shooting numbers for a 19 year old in his first 10 games has long term predictive value?

That and his poor shooting numbers in the French league, yes. It’s literally all the data we have and the only thing we can use to make predictions.

We also have game footage to make predictions and the way he moves on the court, leverages his size and plays defense is more than enough to predict that he's going to be a great player.

I never said he won’t be a great player. But this is supposedly the greatest prospect of all time, and if he can’t shoot he’s not going to live up to that hype.

Javale McGee moves extremely well on the court, too. But without elite skill it doesn’t amount to much.

[TimDunkin]

The comparisons to Durant are silly.. He's very unlikely going to be as good of a shooter Durant. He's very unlikely to shoot as well as Dirk either.

Durant had a poor rookie season but he shot 40% from 3 in college. Wemby shot 27.5% from 3 last year.

Wemby has being playing professional leagues like Luka did before he entered the NBA, he's more prepared for this rookie season than Durant was. Victor will likely be a career 30-34% 3 shooter.

This whole focus on his offense is taking away from his elite defense. And I feel like he's already going to be a disappointment to many of you because of ridiculous expectations.

Wasn't the 3 point line back then significantly closer to the basket than FIBA? Like 3 feet closer...

[jfs1000d]

This is not supposed to be a reactionary thread. I understand that we are not even one quarter into the season but nonetheless there are quite a few concerning observations about Wemby's actual ceiling.
Let's look at his numbers over the last six games following his 38-point game against the Suns. 38/100 (38%) from the field, 9/35 (26%) from three. I understand that San Antonio has a bad team, a PG that is not a PG (i.e. Sochan), and overall his teammates don't give him the ball in good spots as much as they should.
However, I was told Wemby was a great shooter for his length but he demonstrately is not. While his three-point shot may look good, his percentages are just abysmal. I don t think he will ever become a great shooter if he can t shoot even 30% from the three-point line.
Second, from watching the game, I think his handles are very suspect. He gets stripped a lot and his movement with the ball is very clunky at times making it easy for good defenders to strip the ball away from.
I don t think Wemby will be a bust. He can become an elite defender but offensively right now he just looks like a taller Porzingis.
Please don t hate me.

LOL.

Wemby shot will get better because, of all the skills in the nba that can be improved dramatically it is shooting.

Wemby going to be fine. All star.


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