Wembanyama. I'm concerned

[durden_tyler]

He'll be fine. As long as he's healthy, he'd be among the Top 5 players in the league in Year 30-- with the Spurs battling for a playoff spot to boot.

[SNPA]

I don’t understand how anyone can watch his form, movement, body control, handles, defensive abilities, physical tools, and be concerned.

This. I don’t have any concerns at all, he’s actually more impressive than I could have imagined. It’s all there, he is just on a weird team with no pg and bunch of non passing wings.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

This is the correct take.

[165bows]

This is not supposed to be a reactionary thread. I understand that we are not even one quarter into the season but nonetheless there are quite a few concerning observations about Wemby's actual ceiling.
Let's look at his numbers over the last six games following his 38-point game against the Suns. 38/100 (38%) from the field, 9/35 (26%) from three. I understand that San Antonio has a bad team, a PG that is not a PG (i.e. Sochan), and overall his teammates don't give him the ball in good spots as much as they should.
However, I was told Wemby was a great shooter for his length but he demonstrately is not. While his three-point shot may look good, his percentages are just abysmal. I don t think he will ever become a great shooter if he can t shoot even 30% from the three-point line.
Second, from watching the game, I think his handles are very suspect. He gets stripped a lot and his movement with the ball is very clunky at times making it easy for good defenders to strip the ball away from.
I don t think Wemby will be a bust. He can become an elite defender but offensively right now he just looks like a taller Porzingis.
Please don t hate me.

Didn’t even mention his 27:43 A:T numbers.

[ForeverTFC]

Wasn't the 3 point line back then significantly closer to the basket than FIBA? Like 3 feet closer...

Yeah it was 2 feet closer and that's why college players struggled to hit 3s as rookies. They were adapted to a shorter distance.

I'm pretty sure it didn't move to 20' 9" in NCAA until after Durant. He was shooting threes in college from 19' 9". Seems odd to say we knew he could be a great three point shooter because he hit 40% from that range but we know Wemby won't be because he hit 27.5% from 22'. Not really an apples to apples comparison.

The percentage for NBA guys isn't that different from 20 feet compared to 23 feet. There is a range adjustment that's necessary but in general, you're going to hit a 20 footer at about the same percentage you'll hit a 23 footer (unless you're Demar DeRozan):


Now, FT % prior to the NBA (for NCAA guys) tends to be a better predictor of NBA 3pt shooting vs 3pt %, however, the combination of FT% and 3PT% as percentiles has shown to be an even better predictor. Durant was elite at both in college.


At the end of the day, the point is that coming from college to the NBA requires an adjustment in range which requires re-training muscle memory a bit while coming from Europe doesn't. KD had shown he could hit at 40% from 20 feet+ in college. Victor was in the .200s in Europe and wasn't particularly better a few feet in either. Doesn't mean Victor can't become a KD level 3pt threat, but the comp to KD just doesn't really work.

[zimpy27]

Yeah it was 2 feet closer and that's why college players struggled to hit 3s as rookies. They were adapted to a shorter distance.

I'm pretty sure it didn't move to 20' 9" in NCAA until after Durant. He was shooting threes in college from 19' 9". Seems odd to say we knew he could be a great three point shooter because he hit 40% from that range but we know Wemby won't be because he hit 27.5% from 22'. Not really an apples to apples comparison.

The percentage for NBA guys isn't that different from 20 feet compared to 23 feet. There is a range adjustment that's necessary but in general, you're going to hit a 20 footer at about the same percentage you'll hit a 23 footer (unless you're Demar DeRozan):


Now, FT % prior to the NBA (for NCAA guys) tends to be a better predictor of NBA 3pt shooting vs 3pt %, however, the combination of FT% and 3PT% as percentiles has shown to be an even better predictor. Durant was elite at both in college.


At the end of the day, the point is that coming from college to the NBA requires an adjustment in range which requires re-training muscle memory a bit while coming from Europe doesn't. KD had shown he could hit at 40% from 20 feet+ in college. Victor was in the .200s in Europe and wasn't particularly better a few feet in either. Doesn't mean Victor can't become a KD level 3pt threat, but the comp to KD just doesn't really work.

I want the Wemby can be KD narrative to die ASAP.

Be happy if Wemby can shoot like Joel Embiid.

[tamaraw08]

I'm pretty sure it didn't move to 20' 9" in NCAA until after Durant. He was shooting threes in college from 19' 9". Seems odd to say we knew he could be a great three point shooter because he hit 40% from that range but we know Wemby won't be because he hit 27.5% from 22'. Not really an apples to apples comparison.

The percentage for NBA guys isn't that different from 20 feet compared to 23 feet. There is a range adjustment that's necessary but in general, you're going to hit a 20 footer at about the same percentage you'll hit a 23 footer (unless you're Demar DeRozan):


Now, FT % prior to the NBA (for NCAA guys) tends to be a better predictor of NBA 3pt shooting vs 3pt %, however, the combination of FT% and 3PT% as percentiles has shown to be an even better predictor. Durant was elite at both in college.


At the end of the day, the point is that coming from college to the NBA requires an adjustment in range which requires re-training muscle memory a bit while coming from Europe doesn't. KD had shown he could hit at 40% from 20 feet+ in college. Victor was in the .200s in Europe and wasn't particularly better a few feet in either. Doesn't mean Victor can't become a KD level 3pt threat, but the comp to KD just doesn't really work.

I want the Wemby can be KD narrative to die ASAP.

Be happy if Wemby can shoot like Joel Embiid.

Shooting is very important but also having the handles and aggression to attack the basket. I remember the 6-11 Jonathan Bender unable or choosing not to penetrate even when can’t even shoot good from the perimeter.

[zimpy27]

The percentage for NBA guys isn't that different from 20 feet compared to 23 feet. There is a range adjustment that's necessary but in general, you're going to hit a 20 footer at about the same percentage you'll hit a 23 footer (unless you're Demar DeRozan):


Now, FT % prior to the NBA (for NCAA guys) tends to be a better predictor of NBA 3pt shooting vs 3pt %, however, the combination of FT% and 3PT% as percentiles has shown to be an even better predictor. Durant was elite at both in college.


At the end of the day, the point is that coming from college to the NBA requires an adjustment in range which requires re-training muscle memory a bit while coming from Europe doesn't. KD had shown he could hit at 40% from 20 feet+ in college. Victor was in the .200s in Europe and wasn't particularly better a few feet in either. Doesn't mean Victor can't become a KD level 3pt threat, but the comp to KD just doesn't really work.

I want the Wemby can be KD narrative to die ASAP.

Be happy if Wemby can shoot like Joel Embiid.

Shooting is very important but also having the handles and aggression to attack the basket. I remember the 6-11 Jonathan Bender unable or choosing not to penetrate even when can’t even shoot good from the perimeter.

That's a good point and I think it highlights a couple things:

- Wemby's aggression to score and confidence is probably the most underrated part of his game.
- Embiid has similar handles to Wemby, prone to TOs. That will probably be always the case.

Embiid is probably the best realistic high-side of Wemby on offense. I don't think Wemby gets there without the strength of Embiid but he's good to model off:
- both have a loose handle and aren't playmaker bigs
- both have confidence to score and be aggressive
- both shoot at a similar %
- both are 7' +

[uconn83]

Spurs for god's sake attempt some alley oop passes and actually use wemby's verticality as a weapon pops

[BruttoNostra]

Too many serious posts. Everyone is supposed to post ridiculous takes so we can bump this in 4 years.

I"m volunteering:

(Lakers): Spurs should just cut him, maybe someone, wink-wink, will sign him
(Toronto): Too bad he isn't 6'8
(Lakers): Not talking about you!
Clippers entered the chat
(Lakers): And not you!
(Hornets): Talk to us after he gets caught with DUI or sonething
(RealGM General Board): He should start learning Chinese

[Drakeem]

You guys over hyped Wemby.

He's not a generational player. LeBron was generational. Shaq was generational.


Look at those guys in their rookie season they dominated from jump. Wemby is more of a project if surrounded by talent he could be special.

Agreed. Wemby obviously has all the talent and physical tools but I just don t see superstar. Part of his initilal appeal was that he is Kevin Durant but 7 4 insted of 6 10. But Wemby can t shoot which severely limits his upside. Now you might say Giannis can t shoot and he is dominating the league. But Giannis is 6 11 and part of the reason he is so dominant is because he bulked up. Wemby can t bulk up, he is too tall and added weight will significantly increase his risk of injury.

I think you're looking at it the wrong way. He's not a generational player because he's an offensive savant. He's a guy who might be one of the best defenders ever if developed properly with his length and agility at his size, who could also drop 20+ points a game.

Imagine Gobert with a real offensive game. Now imagine that player being more agile, and even taller. That's a top 5 player in the league.

[turnaroundJ]

What the hell are the spurs and pop thinking putting out that terrible product on the floor. No legit point guard? It’s terrible for the fans and for Wembanyama.

[zimpy27]

You guys over hyped Wemby.

He's not a generational player. LeBron was generational. Shaq was generational.


Look at those guys in their rookie season they dominated from jump. Wemby is more of a project if surrounded by talent he could be special.

Agreed. Wemby obviously has all the talent and physical tools but I just don t see superstar. Part of his initilal appeal was that he is Kevin Durant but 7 4 insted of 6 10. But Wemby can t shoot which severely limits his upside. Now you might say Giannis can t shoot and he is dominating the league. But Giannis is 6 11 and part of the reason he is so dominant is because he bulked up. Wemby can t bulk up, he is too tall and added weight will significantly increase his risk of injury.

I think you're looking at it the wrong way. He's not a generational player because he's an offensive savant. He's a guy who might be one of the best defenders ever if developed properly with his length and agility at his size, who could also drop 20+ points a game.

Imagine Gobert with a real offensive game. Now imagine that player being more agile, and even taller. That's a top 5 player in the league.

Yep.

Hakeem or Russell

Both are top 10 all time on most lists.

[HotRocks34]

Wemby is good but will likely never be what was hoped. Porzingis and Ralph Sampson may be good comparisons.

Sampson was unbelievably strong but could not put on bulk. Porzingis has been in the league for years and is not appreciably bigger than he used to be.

Wemby is thin and probably will stay that way. That would limit his offensive potential because he then would not be an effective post up player.

Being slim would likely also hamper his ability to defend the post.

Porz and Sampson had the same challenges. Limited capacity to back defenders down and getting easily moved around when they play defense.

Anthony Davis likes to bully Porz when they play. Davis just shoves Porz around as Davis posts up. Wemby will probably have to deal with the same kind of thing.

Wemby can still be a great player, as Sampson was early in his career. 20/10 and 2+ blocks per game. All-Star, etc.

I'm not sure he'll ever get past that level, to like one of the top players in the game.

Ralph was never Hakeem and never could have been. Porzingis is not on the level of Luka, and so on.

Porz had the Unicorn hype for awhile and then people began to see and realize his limits.

My guess is that Wemby will have that same kind of trajectory, even though I think he may have more potential than Porz.

[G R E Y]

Bookmarked

[art_tatum]

if only bol bol had free reign like wemby. the it would be
bol bol. im concerned.

[ConstableChaos]

wemby is the best defensive rookie ive ever seen. i dont think its close

[Miami_Lux]

Wemby is good but will likely never be what was hoped. Porzingis and Ralph Sampson may be good comparisons.

Sampson was unbelievably strong but could not put on bulk. Porzingis has been in the league for years and is not appreciably bigger than he used to be.

Wemby is thin and probably will stay that way. That would limit his offensive potential because he then would not be an effective post up player.

Being slim would likely also hamper his ability to defend the post.

Porz and Sampson had the same challenges. Limited capacity to back defenders down and getting easily moved around when they play defense.

Anthony Davis likes to bully Porz when they play. Davis just shoves Porz around as Davis posts up. Wemby will probably have to deal with the same kind of thing.

Wemby can still be a great player, as Sampson was early in his career. 20/10 and 2+ blocks per game. All-Star, etc.

I'm not sure he'll ever get past that level, to like one of the top players in the game.

Ralph was never Hakeem and never could have been. Porzingis is not on the level of Luka, and so on.

Porz had the Unicorn hype for awhile and then people began to see and realize his limits.

My guess is that Wemby will have that same kind of trajectory, even though I think he may have more potential than Porz.

This. 100%.

[Heat_team02]

My concern for him is his long thin frame diving for loose balls or falling down when he gets stripped. I would not post him up against Draymond Green's or have him bringing the ball up the floor.

[hauntedcomputer]

He's an ambidextrous sky hook away from 50,000 career points

[pilkoids]

He's 19. Plenty of players come into the league at that age and gradually improve their shooting/handles.