NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24

[agentofatlas]

This is Jokic man. The guy is just too good and more importantly too consistent. Even his bad games are good.

[The-Power]

It is just rare that a MVP is not from a Top 3 seed. Only happened 2x this century:
1. RWB - Discussed how it was an anomaly and I think a lot of writers regret it
2. Jokic in 2022 when Giannis (3rd) and Embiid (4th) missed a ton of games with no other really viable candidates.

Spoiler:

MVP Year Seed Wins
Embiid 2023 3rd 54
Jokic 2022 6th 48
Jokic 2021 3rd 47
Giannis 2020 1st 57
Giannis 2019 1st 60
James Harden 2018 1st 65
Russell Westbrook 2017 6th 47
Stephen Curry 2016 1st 73
Stephen Curry 2015 1st 67
Kevin Durant 2014 2nd 59
LeBron James 2013 1st 66
LeBron James 2012 2nd 46*
Derrick Rose 2011 1st 62
LeBron James 2010 1st 61
LeBron James 2009 1st 66
Kobe Bryant 2008 1st 57
Dirk Nowitzki 2007 1st 67
Steve Nash 2006 2nd 54
Steve Nash 2005 1st 62
Kevin Garnett 2004 1st 58
Tim Duncan 2003 1st 60
Tim Duncan 2002 2nd 58
Allen Iverson 2001 1st 56
Shaquille O'neal 2000 1st 67

Cool list, thanks for providing it!

It is indeed rare for lower seeds to have the MVP. But the list also shows a different trend you haven't mentioned. Between 2000 and 2016, the MVP has always had at least a top 2 (!) record, and most of them the best record. Since then, the MVP has been given to a player on a team without a top 2 record 4 out of 7 times, and three times straight now!

Perhaps that is an indication that in this era of greater parity in the NBA, or for some other reasons over the past years, voters feel much less bound to adhere to the unspoken rules regarding team seeding. You can, of course, always find reasons for why particular MVP choices were made and they would naturally differ from new emerging cases. But I wouldn't rule it out that the seal is now broken, so to speak, and voters are generally more willing to consider candidates from teams that finish outside the top 2. There certainly is precedent now.

That being said, I don't think this will matter for Haliburton's candidacy. I expect his raw numbers to drop a bit and Indiana to not be a higher seed (just making the playoffs would be a huge success), and ultimately that will likely tank any hint of a candidacy Haliburton may have right now in this moment.

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

It is just rare that a MVP is not from a Top 3 seed. Only happened 2x this century:
1. RWB - Discussed how it was an anomaly and I think a lot of writers regret it
2. Jokic in 2022 when Giannis (3rd) and Embiid (4th) missed a ton of games with no other really viable candidates.

Spoiler:

MVP Year Seed Wins
Embiid 2023 3rd 54
Jokic 2022 6th 48
Jokic 2021 3rd 47
Giannis 2020 1st 57
Giannis 2019 1st 60
James Harden 2018 1st 65
Russell Westbrook 2017 6th 47
Stephen Curry 2016 1st 73
Stephen Curry 2015 1st 67
Kevin Durant 2014 2nd 59
LeBron James 2013 1st 66
LeBron James 2012 2nd 46*
Derrick Rose 2011 1st 62
LeBron James 2010 1st 61
LeBron James 2009 1st 66
Kobe Bryant 2008 1st 57
Dirk Nowitzki 2007 1st 67
Steve Nash 2006 2nd 54
Steve Nash 2005 1st 62
Kevin Garnett 2004 1st 58
Tim Duncan 2003 1st 60
Tim Duncan 2002 2nd 58
Allen Iverson 2001 1st 56
Shaquille O'neal 2000 1st 67

Cool list, thanks for providing it!

It is indeed rare for lower seeds to have the MVP. But the list also shows a different trend you haven't mentioned. Between 2000 and 2016, the MVP has always had at least a top 2 (!) record, and most of them the best record. Since then, the MVP has been given to a player on a team without a top 2 record 4 out of 7 times, and three times straight now!

Perhaps that is an indication that in this era of greater parity in the NBA, or for some other reasons over the past years, voters feel much less bound to adhere to the unspoken rules regarding team seeding. You can, of course, always find reasons for why particular MVP choices were made and they would naturally differ from new emerging cases. But I wouldn't rule it out that the seal is now broken, so to speak, and voters are generally more willing to consider candidates from teams that finish outside the top 2. There certainly is precedent now.

That being said, I don't think this will matter for Haliburton's candidacy. I expect his raw numbers to drop a bit and Indiana to not be a higher seed (just making the playoffs would be a huge success), and ultimately that will likely tank any hint of a candidacy Haliburton may have right now in this moment.

Fair, I admit I was stubborn and stuck to my argument despite seeing what you saw. I still think they are outliers due to COVID, Player Empowerment/Load Management, Parity, etc. With top teams having MVP candidates, a clear game requirement, and other factors I think we shift back to expecting a MVP to carry his team to a Top 6 (#3 in conference) record. I admit I could be wrong and the seal has been broken... but I think we shift back to wanting MVP to actually win 66%+ of their games.

[CobraCommander]

it's pretty easy tho, if u compare him to someone like Kobe who has never been "statistically the best player in the world", no?

No- Kobe was the actual best player for a period of time...so was Shaq....

fair enough, i've heard it 20,000 times probably from those days onwards. Shaq? sure. as for Kobe, I personally disagree but like I said, most ppl seem to think so and that's fine by me

I’m just saying at the tippy top we need something to differentiate them - all of them talented. All of them were are the best in the world at some point. The league is damn near 80 years old. So to be in the top 20 you gotta be the best of an era or at least a period of time AnD win rings…. Cause other wise we debating Tmac and Narkely level guys.

[Wolfgang630]

Watch on YouTube

First player in NBA HISTORY with this stat line. Just insane

[OverAndOut]

Watch on YouTube

First player in NBA HISTORY with this stat line. Just insane

Can’t wait for certain posters to get on him for losing.

26/16/18 and a +5. Loss isn’t on him that’s for sure

[Infinite Llamas]

Watch on YouTube

First player in NBA HISTORY with this stat line. Just insane

Can’t wait for certain posters to get on him for losing.

26/16/18 and a +5. Loss isn’t on him that’s for sure

They were down 3 and Reggie, KCP and Gordon all brick 3’s on the same possession. Couldn’t believe that Jokic never touched the ball in the middle of that Chuck-a-thon.

[LoneyROY]

Joker is basically averaging a 30-point triple double on 65+ TS shooting percentage. No biggie.

Oh and this is coming off...yup, averaging a 30-point triple double in the playoffs en route to a chip and a finals MVP.



Should be going for his 4th straight MVP, but 3 will have to do.

[-Luke-]

An "off night" for Jokic (not last night, just in general) would be a "career night" for > 80% of all players in NBA history.

[ty 4191]

Watch on YouTube

First player in NBA HISTORY with this stat line. Just insane

Amazing. He's a unicorn.

FWIW, most games with 15+ assists by a center, NBA history, including playoffs:



Most games with 10+ assists, centers, NBA history, including playoffs:



Jokic has done this playing in 34 MPG in an <100 possessions per game environment. Wilt did this playing 46 MPG in 120+ possessions per game. He also played 1205 career games to Jokic's 676.

In fairness, Wilt played when the assist rules were far less liberal, and, didn't really pass the ball until Hannum told him to in 1966.

[ty 4191]

Joker is basically averaging a 30-point triple double on 65+ TS shooting percentage. No biggie.

Oh and this is coming off...yup, averaging a 30-point triple double in the playoffs en route to a chip and a finals MVP.



Should be going for his 4th straight MVP, but 3 will have to do.

Best post of this entire thread. His production is hilarious. Impossible, really.

[ty 4191]

An "off night" for Jokic (not last night, just in general) would be a "career night" for > 80% of all players in NBA history.

Posted 11/15/23:

He's the most consistently outstanding player of the past 40 years, alongside Michael Jordan himself.

Here's proof:

Including the playoffs, last 4 seasons:

Jokic basically NEVER has a bad game! Game Score of 10 is league average, 20 is great, 30 is outstanding, 40 is ATG.

https://www.omnicalculator.com/sports/game-score

Last 4 seasons, including playoffs:

1. Jokic: 82 games Game Score 30+, 3 games with a Game Score 10 or less!! 27:1 ratio of outstanding games to bad games.

2. Embiid: 62 games Game Score 30+, 13 games 10 or less. 4.8:1 ratio of outstanding games to bad games.

3. Doncic: 55 games Game Score 30+, 16 games 10 or less. 3.4:1 ratio of outstanding games to bad games.

4. Giannis: 59 games Game Score 30+, 11 games 10 or less. 5.4:1 ratio of outstanding games to bad games.

Not exactly a small sample size, 4 seasons including playoffs.

Jokic is one of the greatest few players of the past 45 years, and, one of the top few most skilled and valuable, also.

Comparing this to other peak 4 season spans of superstars of the past (Game Score calculable and sortable back to 1983-1984):

1. LeBron James (2007-2008 through 2010-2011): 79 games Game Score 30+, 11 games 10 or less. 7.2:1 ratio of outstanding games to bad games.

2. Michael Jordan (87'-88' through 90'-91'): 152 games Game Score 30+, 5 games 10 or less. 30:1 ratio.

3. Larry Bird (84'-85' through 87'-88'): 63 games Game Score 30+, 10 games 10 or less. 6.3:1 ratio.

4. Magic Johnson (86'-87' through 89'-90'): 62 games 30+, 17 games 10 or less. 3.6:1 ratio.

5. Shaquille O'Neal (98'-99 through 01'-02'): 55 games 30+, 10 games 10 or less. 5.5:1 ratio.

[Sgt Major]

Read on Twitter

?t=smPE7DzD12-_2wAgaj3NKA&s=19

[Wolfgang630]

[x]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=XO0PgrZjS-uU8MmGKL8grQ[/x]

How do we judge TPA and what’s good?

[Special_Puppy]

[x]

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=XO0PgrZjS-uU8MmGKL8grQ[/x]

How do we judge TPA and what’s good?

TPA is just BPM dressed up. No reason to use TPA instead of BPM+VORP

[VFX]

It’s Jokic.

Unless Kendrick Perkins has something to say about it and the voters don’t want to look “racist”.

[damanick10]

It's always been Jokic. If we voted only on results and not worry about having him win it too much, this would be his 4th in a row.

[bigboi]

It’s easily Jokic rn. But if Giannis keeps heating up and Dame finally gets into sync, wouldn’t be surprised if Giannis made it close

[Infinite Llamas]

It’s easily Jokic rn. But if Giannis keeps heating up and Dame finally gets into sync, wouldn’t be surprised if Giannis made it close

But does Dame cancel out some potential votes for Giannis? Having a superstar teammate sometimes has that effect.

[Wargreymon]

It's either Jokic or Doncic. They both have the individual stats and winning team records to back it up.