Warriors EPM & other ratings for this season

[DonaldSanders]

https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

They just dropped the EPM ratings now that enough games have been played. Obviously still early and a small sample size, but I this is generally the best all-in-one metric, though none of them are perfect and flaws always exist. Feel free to bring up any metrics to discuss.

Steph +5.9 #5
CP3 +1.9 #41
Draymond +0.8 #74
Looney +0.7 #76
Saric +0.6 #89
Moody -0.8 #137
Klay -1.7 #185
GPII -1.8 #196
TJD -2.1 #237
Podz -2.8 #235
Kuminga -3.0 #244
Wiggins -3.6 #279

346 is the lowest player, -8.0.

Notable former Warriors:
Wiseman -4.2 #306
Poole -4.3 #309

Confirms a lot of what we've watched:

- Draymond and Looney have been good, but not quite up to their normal standards. With time they will be better I think, Loon had a nice game last night
- Wiggins pooped the bed big time this season, has been the biggest reason for us being bad as last year he was one of our best + players. Seeing him beast last night makes me think he's likely trending upwards as a lot of us thought he would
- Klay though terrible at times can still be a serviceable bench player
- Steph still good enough to lead a strong team to a chip
- Saric is a huge upgrade over JMG
- GPII has been a little inconsistent, but has had some great games. I think he will settle down at some point
- Rookie metrics are tough because of how much their minutes are in garbage time without real goals, so I don't put a ton of stock in them
- Kuminga minutes have been a lot rougher than most have thought, backing FNQ's view. I don't see him at Wiseman level of cratering but he definitely has been a big minus overall (despite the amazing highs he brings).

So on a positive note, Dray returning mixed with Wiggins potentially returning to form will definitely boost this team. Of course without a trade, say Klay + Kuminga that nets us a good wing we have a chance to be a contender still, but we all know loyalty will trump actual value unfortunately. But at least I don't think we'll be stuck looking like total dogwater like we have on this losing streak!

[HiRez]

With both Kuminga and Wiggins, D-EPM has them at league median, it’s their offense that’s pulling them down. Neither player has found their shot yet (maybe Wiggins just did but too soon to say), so once they start shooting the ball back at their normal rate, their O-EPM will come up and by extension, so will EPM. It’s a small sample size and really not quite that dire at this point. Having said that they both need to play better, no doubt.

[CDM_Stats]

Tend not to put too much weight in any metrics (I believe the most honest of them cop to the fact that they use static, public data for defense) but this one seems fairly accurate.. all metrics are going to weigh Wiggins down and have Klay much higher because they can't value actual importance/difficulty to defensive roles, especially switch heavy roles. This is why CP3/Klay are much higher than their actual impact, and why Wiggins/Dray are much lower. For example, Klay grades out as -0.9 DEPM, while Draymond grades out at -0.8, and Dario Saric at +0.6

Kuminga should be trending up recently, because of the offense.. I dont expect much movement defensively nor do I expect his fit to suddenly improve.. GP2 has been much more up and down this year, which is to be expected when we have less offensive options around him. Those are the 3 I'm worried about, in order: Klay, Kuminga and GP2. The rest are performing well or as expected

[SpreeS]

These numbers are b…s….

Curry isnt top5 in NBA. Bad defence, a lot of bad turnovers, less playmaking and more bad shots. He is hitting them now, but will fall to earth soon.

Eyes test started from the worst

Kerr

Klay
Draymond
Kuminga
Wiggs
Paul
Saric
Looney
Moody
Payton

[WarriorGM]

I'll go with the numbers. If there is a regression back to their career historical means Klay, Wiggins and CP3 can surprise on the upside in relation to the current doom and gloom talk. I'm more worried about Kuminga continuing to show no positive impact.

[Jester_]

These numbers are b…s….

Curry isnt top5 in NBA. Bad defence, a lot of bad turnovers, less playmaking and more bad shots. He is hitting them now, but will fall to earth soon

[CDM_Stats]

These numbers are b…s….

Curry isnt top5 in NBA. Bad defence, a lot of bad turnovers, less playmaking and more bad shots. He is hitting them now, but will fall to earth soon

These numbers, which aren't entirely accurate, are at leased based on whats actually happened. Those numbers are BS

Here is my opinion of who's been best so far this season: #1, Gary Payton

Not enough drugs on the planet to get me to that level

[SpreeS]

These numbers are b…s….

Curry isnt top5 in NBA. Bad defence, a lot of bad turnovers, less playmaking and more bad shots. He is hitting them now, but will fall to earth soon

These numbers, which aren't entirely accurate, are at leased based on whats actually happened. Those numbers are BS

Here is my opinion of who's been best so far this season: #1, Gary Payton

Not enough drugs on the planet to get me to that level

Sould be undestandable for everyone that the best player is Curry. I didn't even mention him, but I see that it was necessary, because not everyone understands. Payton is second best player at own role. Green failed again as a leader with all these ejections and suspension. Also to have the highest drtg on the team for the best def player has something to do with my assessment.

[CDM_Stats]

These numbers, which aren't entirely accurate, are at leased based on whats actually happened. Those numbers are BS

Here is my opinion of who's been best so far this season: #1, Gary Payton

Not enough drugs on the planet to get me to that level

Sould be undestandable for everyone that the best player is Curry. I didn't even mention him, but I see that it was necessary, because not everyone understands. Payton is second best player at own role. Green failed again as a leader with all these ejections and suspension. Also to have the highest drtg on the team for the best def player has something to do with my assessment.

Yes, #2 makes it way more realistic, and Draymond being worse than Kuminga now makes sense. This doesn't preclude drugs, just precludes that you're getting the good stuff

I thought it was an eye test.. sounds like your eye test directed you to a more general, less accurate metric instead of just watching the game, which is usually what that means

[SpreeS]

These numbers, which aren't entirely accurate, are at leased based on whats actually happened. Those numbers are BS

Here is my opinion of who's been best so far this season: #1, Gary Payton

Not enough drugs on the planet to get me to that level

Sould be undestandable for everyone that the best player is Curry. I didn't even mention him, but I see that it was necessary, because not everyone understands. Payton is second best player at own role. Green failed again as a leader with all these ejections and suspension. Also to have the highest drtg on the team for the best def player has something to do with my assessment.

Yes, #2 makes it way more realistic, and Draymond being worse than Kuminga now makes sense. This doesn't preclude drugs, just precludes that you're getting the good stuff

I thought it was an eye test.. sounds like your eye test directed you to a more general, less accurate metric instead of just watching the game, which is usually what that means

You are no stranger to sarcasm, I appreciate that. Every player has own role. Kuminga failed to do things at his role, but he is bench player. Green must be second best player and one of the most important. So where is he now? Yes he is sitting at home and fail big time again. And what about his 120.7 drtg? What about to have the lowest career DRB%, STL% and BLK%? What about to have the lowest career DFGA 8.4 and its only 8th result on our team? Diff% -0.4 - also the worst in his career...He is out of shape and out of control.

[cpower]

these stats are pretty good. GP2 probably should be a bit higher but he left games twice and those are small sample.

[CDM_Stats]

Sould be undestandable for everyone that the best player is Curry. I didn't even mention him, but I see that it was necessary, because not everyone understands. Payton is second best player at own role. Green failed again as a leader with all these ejections and suspension. Also to have the highest drtg on the team for the best def player has something to do with my assessment.

Yes, #2 makes it way more realistic, and Draymond being worse than Kuminga now makes sense. This doesn't preclude drugs, just precludes that you're getting the good stuff

I thought it was an eye test.. sounds like your eye test directed you to a more general, less accurate metric instead of just watching the game, which is usually what that means

You are no stranger to sarcasm, I appreciate that. Every player has own role. Kuminga failed to do things at his role, but he is bench player. Green must be second best player and one of the most important. So where is he now? Yes he is sitting at home and fail big time again. And what about his 120.7 drtg? What about to have the lowest career DRB%, STL% and BLK%? What about to have the lowest career DFGA 8.4 and its only 8th result on our team? Diff% -0.4 - also the worst in his career...He is out of shape and out of control.

Kinda showing why I hate metrics.. not only are they an incomplete story, people will cherry pick them to land on the answer they want, not use them to determine what actually is

Dray's impact remains at a high level, the only legitimate criticism is about his availability. There's no stand-alone statistic that quantifies help defense, and ORtg/DRtg is a stat that was designed for teams and was jerry-rigged, poorly, to look at individuals

[Impuniti]

Yes, #2 makes it way more realistic, and Draymond being worse than Kuminga now makes sense. This doesn't preclude drugs, just precludes that you're getting the good stuff

I thought it was an eye test.. sounds like your eye test directed you to a more general, less accurate metric instead of just watching the game, which is usually what that means

You are no stranger to sarcasm, I appreciate that. Every player has own role. Kuminga failed to do things at his role, but he is bench player. Green must be second best player and one of the most important. So where is he now? Yes he is sitting at home and fail big time again. And what about his 120.7 drtg? What about to have the lowest career DRB%, STL% and BLK%? What about to have the lowest career DFGA 8.4 and its only 8th result on our team? Diff% -0.4 - also the worst in his career...He is out of shape and out of control.

Kinda showing why I hate metrics.. not only are they an incomplete story, people will cherry pick them to land on the answer they want, not use them to determine what actually is

Dray's impact remains at a high level, the only legitimate criticism is about his availability. There's no stand-alone statistic that quantifies help defense, and ORtg/DRtg is a stat that was designed for teams and was jerry-rigged, poorly, to look at individuals

Help defense isn't doing all much work this season when the defensive rating of the team is so much better with him off the floor so far into the season. The difference should not be this big. I feel like he'll get back to a better level but I don't see how he's played well so far outside of his 3 going in which isn't going to last for much longer.

[SpreeS]

Yes, #2 makes it way more realistic, and Draymond being worse than Kuminga now makes sense. This doesn't preclude drugs, just precludes that you're getting the good stuff

I thought it was an eye test.. sounds like your eye test directed you to a more general, less accurate metric instead of just watching the game, which is usually what that means

You are no stranger to sarcasm, I appreciate that. Every player has own role. Kuminga failed to do things at his role, but he is bench player. Green must be second best player and one of the most important. So where is he now? Yes he is sitting at home and fail big time again. And what about his 120.7 drtg? What about to have the lowest career DRB%, STL% and BLK%? What about to have the lowest career DFGA 8.4 and its only 8th result on our team? Diff% -0.4 - also the worst in his career...He is out of shape and out of control.

Kinda showing why I hate metrics.. not only are they an incomplete story, people will cherry pick them to land on the answer they want, not use them to determine what actually is

Dray's impact remains at a high level, the only legitimate criticism is about his availability. There's no stand-alone statistic that quantifies help defense, and ORtg/DRtg is a stat that was designed for teams and was jerry-rigged, poorly, to look at individuals

No it isn't. His impact on the lowest level of his career and all various numbers indicate it. There are plenty numbers designed for ind player.

[CDM_Stats]

You are no stranger to sarcasm, I appreciate that. Every player has own role. Kuminga failed to do things at his role, but he is bench player. Green must be second best player and one of the most important. So where is he now? Yes he is sitting at home and fail big time again. And what about his 120.7 drtg? What about to have the lowest career DRB%, STL% and BLK%? What about to have the lowest career DFGA 8.4 and its only 8th result on our team? Diff% -0.4 - also the worst in his career...He is out of shape and out of control.

Kinda showing why I hate metrics.. not only are they an incomplete story, people will cherry pick them to land on the answer they want, not use them to determine what actually is

Dray's impact remains at a high level, the only legitimate criticism is about his availability. There's no stand-alone statistic that quantifies help defense, and ORtg/DRtg is a stat that was designed for teams and was jerry-rigged, poorly, to look at individuals

Help defense isn't doing all much work this season when the defensive rating of the team is so much better with him off the floor so far into the season. The difference should not be this big. I feel like he'll get back to a better level but I don't see how he's played well so far outside of his 3 going in which isn't going to last for much longer.

He's been playing in a house-of-cards system that has Klay playing PF and being responsible for a lot of switches. Not unlike Oubre or Wiseman, a single bad player can cause the whole thing to crumble. Metrics cant handle that kind of complex thought

[CDM_Stats]

You are no stranger to sarcasm, I appreciate that. Every player has own role. Kuminga failed to do things at his role, but he is bench player. Green must be second best player and one of the most important. So where is he now? Yes he is sitting at home and fail big time again. And what about his 120.7 drtg? What about to have the lowest career DRB%, STL% and BLK%? What about to have the lowest career DFGA 8.4 and its only 8th result on our team? Diff% -0.4 - also the worst in his career...He is out of shape and out of control.

Kinda showing why I hate metrics.. not only are they an incomplete story, people will cherry pick them to land on the answer they want, not use them to determine what actually is

Dray's impact remains at a high level, the only legitimate criticism is about his availability. There's no stand-alone statistic that quantifies help defense, and ORtg/DRtg is a stat that was designed for teams and was jerry-rigged, poorly, to look at individuals

No it isn't. His impact on the lowest level of his career and all various numbers indicate it. There are plenty numbers designed for ind player.

They absolutely do not.

Metrics, especially public facing metrics, are not how decisions should be made. Free metrics are practically garbage even in the metric world. For example, Wiggins hasnt been the worst player on the team, but metrics say he is. Because he, and the rest of the starting lineup, absorb a lot of the damage done that starts with one single player

[cpower]

Kinda showing why I hate metrics.. not only are they an incomplete story, people will cherry pick them to land on the answer they want, not use them to determine what actually is

Dray's impact remains at a high level, the only legitimate criticism is about his availability. There's no stand-alone statistic that quantifies help defense, and ORtg/DRtg is a stat that was designed for teams and was jerry-rigged, poorly, to look at individuals

No it isn't. His impact on the lowest level of his career and all various numbers indicate it. There are plenty numbers designed for ind player.

They absolutely do not.

Metrics, especially public facing metrics, are not how decisions should be made. Free metrics are practically garbage even in the metric world. For example, Wiggins hasnt been the worst player on the team, but metrics say he is. Because he, and the rest of the starting lineup, absorb a lot of the damage done that starts with one single player

how do you tell? If every time a player enters the game both our offense and defense collapse, regardless of lineup or component..then the metric is capturing what is happening here.

[CDM_Stats]

No it isn't. His impact on the lowest level of his career and all various numbers indicate it. There are plenty numbers designed for ind player.

They absolutely do not.

Metrics, especially public facing metrics, are not how decisions should be made. Free metrics are practically garbage even in the metric world. For example, Wiggins hasnt been the worst player on the team, but metrics say he is. Because he, and the rest of the starting lineup, absorb a lot of the damage done that starts with one single player

how do you tell? If every time a player enters the game both our offense and defense collapse, regardless of lineup or component..then the metric is capturing what is happening here.

As I said in the other thread, the "what" has a limited value without the "why". Metrics struggle to understand the Warriors system because it is switch heavy and responsibility isnt limited to just the person who's guarding the handler. Missed rotations/late rotations, that are part of the system working, do not generate negative feedback.. so someone who's not involved in the play, metric-wise, can actually be entirely responsible for a play breaking down.

Does anyone disagree that Klay is the worst defender in the starting lineup? If they don't, why is Klay's defensive metric not the worst?

[SpreeS]

Kinda showing why I hate metrics.. not only are they an incomplete story, people will cherry pick them to land on the answer they want, not use them to determine what actually is

Dray's impact remains at a high level, the only legitimate criticism is about his availability. There's no stand-alone statistic that quantifies help defense, and ORtg/DRtg is a stat that was designed for teams and was jerry-rigged, poorly, to look at individuals

No it isn't. His impact on the lowest level of his career and all various numbers indicate it. There are plenty numbers designed for ind player.

They absolutely do not.

Metrics, especially public facing metrics, are not how decisions should be made. Free metrics are practically garbage even in the metric world. For example, Wiggins hasnt been the worst player on the team, but metrics say he is. Because he, and the rest of the starting lineup, absorb a lot of the damage done that starts with one single player

2021 Looney/Green/Wiggs/Poole/Curry 347min 104.0 drtg
2022 Looney/Green/Wiggs/Klay/Curry 331min 106.1 drtg
2023 Looney/Green/Wiggs/Klay/Curry 87min 126.6 drtg

Tell me about damage of one player to whole unit. 20 point diff isn't about one player, its more about the most important player.

[CDM_Stats]

No it isn't. His impact on the lowest level of his career and all various numbers indicate it. There are plenty numbers designed for ind player.

They absolutely do not.

Metrics, especially public facing metrics, are not how decisions should be made. Free metrics are practically garbage even in the metric world. For example, Wiggins hasnt been the worst player on the team, but metrics say he is. Because he, and the rest of the starting lineup, absorb a lot of the damage done that starts with one single player

2021 Looney/Green/Wiggs/Poole/Curry 347min 104.0 drtg
2022 Looney/Green/Wiggs/Klay/Curry 331min 106.1 drtg
2023 Looney/Green/Wiggs/Klay/Curry 87min 126.6 drtg

Tell me about damage of one player to whole unit. 20 point diff isn't about one player, its more about the most important player.

As I've been saying all along, and if history is any indicator, you all will be saying it 3 months later while arguing with me about the next thing that tracking has been saying all along.. putting Klay in a position to be a low-post help defender is destroying the team because we no longer have someone who can challenge down there. In '21 and '22, Klay stayed on the perimeter and was capable enough there. This year he is in the corner and towards the rim, a position that used to be for Andrew Wiggins who thrived in it

See? Context that metrics cant grab - their roles have changed. Does the metric say anything about that? Or are you denying that Klay is playing closer to the rim and Wiggins further from it? Do you want data on that too?