Bears 2023 thread V

[JohnnyKILLroy]

How many of the best WRs in the league were top 5 picks? Or even top 10 for that matter?

Every player is different. Every Draft is different. But the consensus among lots of NFL talent evaluators is that MHJ is the single best player in the draft without regard to position. He probably has the lowest potential bust potential of any player I've seen in years. He is physically gifted and fundamentally almost flawless. And surprisingly modest for a WR with his reputation. I want the Bears to come out of this draft with MHJ. What they do with their other First Round pick is up to debate. But the addition of MHJ gives us a dynamic duo at WR, and it makes whoever the QB is that much better. Tom Brady himself could not have been successful without weapons.

Interesting you bring up the Patriots and Tom Brady. I wonder how and where he got those weapons? Correct me if I wrong but aren’t the Patriots and Belichick notorious for trading down in drafts? Isn’t that like their MO? I wonder where all their weapons over the years got drafted or how the were acquired, were they all studly prospects coming out of college?

[JohnnyKILLroy]

How many of the best WRs in the league were top 5 picks? Or even top 10 for that matter?

Most drafts dont have a WR picked in the top 5 so unexpectedly most of the top WRs arent top 5 picks. Here's a quick resource for highest drafted WR per draft- https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/the_highest_drafted_receivers_from_the_last_25_nfl_drafts/s1__33848729#slide_20

Quick list of top 5s though:
1996: Keyshawn Johnson - HOF
2000: Peter Warrick - Bust
2003: Charles Rogers - Bust
2004: Larry Fitzgerald - HOF
2005: Braylon Edwards - 1 Probowl season
2007: Megatron - HOF
2011: AJ Green - 7 Probowl seasons
2012: Justin Blackmon - Bust
2014: Sammy Watkins - Long journeyman career
2015: Amari Cooper - 5 Probowl seasons
2017: Corey Davis - Bust
2021: Jamarr Chase - 2 Probowl Seasons

Its not a sure thing as nothing in the draft is, but I would imagine it has to be one of the top hits % of any position in the top 5 - in the last 26 years you have a better chance of getting an AllPro than a bust with your top 5 draft pick WR.

Thanks. I appreciate the response. I’m not against taking MHJ at all. I was just wondering.

Poles needs to heavily invest in the trenches this off season. We gotta speed that up. No Velus draft picks over linemen.

[Almost Retired]

How many of the best WRs in the league were top 5 picks? Or even top 10 for that matter?

Most drafts dont have a WR picked in the top 5 so unexpectedly most of the top WRs arent top 5 picks. Here's a quick resource for highest drafted WR per draft- https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/the_highest_drafted_receivers_from_the_last_25_nfl_drafts/s1__33848729#slide_20

Quick list of top 5s though:
1996: Keyshawn Johnson - HOF
2000: Peter Warrick - Bust
2003: Charles Rogers - Bust
2004: Larry Fitzgerald - HOF
2005: Braylon Edwards - 1 Probowl season
2007: Megatron - HOF
2011: AJ Green - 7 Probowl seasons
2012: Justin Blackmon - Bust
2014: Sammy Watkins - Long journeyman career
2015: Amari Cooper - 5 Probowl seasons
2017: Corey Davis - Bust
2021: Jamarr Chase - 2 Probowl Seasons

Its not a sure thing as nothing in the draft is, but I would imagine it has to be one of the top hits % of any position in the top 5 - in the last 26 years you have a better chance of getting an AllPro than a bust with your top 5 draft pick WR.

Thanks. I appreciate the response. I’m not against taking MHJ at all. I was just wondering.

Poles needs to heavily invest in the trenches this off season. We gotta speed that up. No Velus draft picks over linemen.[/q

There is good depth for Defensive Lineman. For a 3 Technique I really like Byron Murphy II from Texas. He will be available in the 3rd Round. There will be others. And if we can't get Van Pran as our next center there are a couple others that will be available in the 3rd round. I really like Bryce Foster out of Texas A&M. Needs to improve on technique but at 6' 5" 330 pounds the dude is a mountain and can still run a sub 5 second 40. And he's barely 20 years old.

[fleet]

Can't coach expecting failure. Period. This line of reasoning doesn't make them look better nor does it answer the very specific question about the inconsistencies with the approach.

I am not trying to make them look better. I am pointing out that the fans are confused about the strategy. They probably weren’t trying to move the chains, and fans wanted chain moving calls. That strategy may make fans angry. Thats understandable. I am angry the coaches dont trust their players. And I am not sure who’s to blame that they dont.

No one is confused. It was stupid. One first down on either of the 2 drives and the game is likely over.

Subjectively. Kurt Warner called it “smart football”.

‘Be smart, take points, put it on the defense’

[madvillian]

I am not trying to make them look better. I am pointing out that the fans are confused about the strategy. They probably weren’t trying to move the chains, and fans wanted chain moving calls. That strategy may make fans angry. Thats understandable. I am angry the coaches dont trust their players. And I am not sure who’s to blame that they dont.

No one is confused. It was stupid. One first down on either of the 2 drives and the game is likely over.

Subjectively. Kurt Warner called it “smart football”.

‘Be smart, take points, put it on the defense’

These guys are dinos that played in a different era. Surely of all people the guy that led that Rams offense should realize how "putting it on the defense" in today's game isn't smart. They were in a dome, Detroit had all their playmakers healthy, their o line was a bit banged up but it's not like Chicago was stopping them -- Goff was stopping them. Once Goff reverted back to his near MVP form they marched right down and put the game away.

Odds of converting a 4th and 1 are like 2/3, probably quite a bit higher (like 80%) if it's tush push close. It was certainly a short yard both times from what I could tell. So we'll guestimate a 70% chance to just end the game and force Detroit to burn TOs and clock. That seems like pretty good odds to me. And at that point if you didn't get it, at least you would likely have time to get another possession if needed, with more than 29 seconds.

Bears played not to lose instead of playing to win, and it burned them.

[panthermark]

No one is confused. It was stupid. One first down on either of the 2 drives and the game is likely over.

Subjectively. Kurt Warner called it “smart football”.

‘Be smart, take points, put it on the defense’

These guys are dinos that played in a different era. Surely of all people the guy that led that Rams offense should realize how "putting it on the defense" in today's game isn't smart. They were in a dome, Detroit had all their playmakers healthy, their o line was a bit banged up but it's not like Chicago was stopping them -- Goff was stopping them. Once Goff reverted back to his near MVP form they marched right down and put the game away.

Odds of converting a 4th and 1 are like 2/3, probably quite a bit higher (like 80%) if it's tush push close. It was certainly a short yard both times from what I could tell. So we'll guestimate a 70% chance to just end the game and force Detroit to burn TOs and clock. That seems like pretty good odds to me. And at that point if you didn't get it, at least you would likely have time to get another possession if needed, with more than 29 seconds.

Bears played not to lose instead of playing to win, and it burned them.

Question on the short yardage that failed (and maybe it played into a skipped attempt). Do you think that it could be because Tev is on the left and not the right anymore? I've been wondering about that.

[madvillian]

Subjectively. Kurt Warner called it “smart football”.

‘Be smart, take points, put it on the defense’

These guys are dinos that played in a different era. Surely of all people the guy that led that Rams offense should realize how "putting it on the defense" in today's game isn't smart. They were in a dome, Detroit had all their playmakers healthy, their o line was a bit banged up but it's not like Chicago was stopping them -- Goff was stopping them. Once Goff reverted back to his near MVP form they marched right down and put the game away.

Odds of converting a 4th and 1 are like 2/3, probably quite a bit higher (like 80%) if it's tush push close. It was certainly a short yard both times from what I could tell. So we'll guestimate a 70% chance to just end the game and force Detroit to burn TOs and clock. That seems like pretty good odds to me. And at that point if you didn't get it, at least you would likely have time to get another possession if needed, with more than 29 seconds.

Bears played not to lose instead of playing to win, and it burned them.

Question on the short yardage that failed (and maybe it played into a skipped attempt). Do you think that it could be because Tev is on the left and not the right anymore? I've been wondering about that.

I don't know the Bears' specific personnel but just in general I think running (especially when the other team knows you want to) is a mindset as much as a skill and Chicago doesn't have that mindset. It's why they let Monty go and Detroit coveted him.

Dan Campbell put that into the team when he became head coach. It took three years, but they've got it now.

[Dresden]

No one is confused. It was stupid. One first down on either of the 2 drives and the game is likely over.

Subjectively. Kurt Warner called it “smart football”.

‘Be smart, take points, put it on the defense’

These guys are dinos that played in a different era. Surely of all people the guy that led that Rams offense should realize how "putting it on the defense" in today's game isn't smart. They were in a dome, Detroit had all their playmakers healthy, their o line was a bit banged up but it's not like Chicago was stopping them -- Goff was stopping them. Once Goff reverted back to his near MVP form they marched right down and put the game away.

Odds of converting a 4th and 1 are like 2/3, probably quite a bit higher (like 80%) if it's tush push close. It was certainly a short yard both times from what I could tell. So we'll guestimate a 70% chance to just end the game and force Detroit to burn TOs and clock. That seems like pretty good odds to me. And at that point if you didn't get it, at least you would likely have time to get another possession if needed, with more than 29 seconds.

Bears played not to lose instead of playing to win, and it burned them.

Speaking of %'s, with about 2:40 to go in the game, the odds of Bears winning were something like 95.8%, according to Yahoo. So what Detroit did happens about 1 in every 25 situations.

Also read that teams that are +3 in turnovers for a game, are 27-3 this season, with this game being one of the 3.

[fleet]

No one is confused. It was stupid. One first down on either of the 2 drives and the game is likely over.

Subjectively. Kurt Warner called it “smart football”.

‘Be smart, take points, put it on the defense’

These guys are dinos that played in a different era. Surely of all people the guy that led that Rams offense should realize how "putting it on the defense" in today's game isn't smart. They were in a dome, Detroit had all their playmakers healthy, their o line was a bit banged up but it's not like Chicago was stopping them -- Goff was stopping them. Once Goff reverted back to his near MVP form they marched right down and put the game away.

Odds of converting a 4th and 1 are like 2/3, probably quite a bit higher (like 80%) if it's tush push close. It was certainly a short yard both times from what I could tell. So we'll guestimate a 70% chance to just end the game and force Detroit to burn TOs and clock. That seems like pretty good odds to me. And at that point if you didn't get it, at least you would likely have time to get another possession if needed, with more than 29 seconds.

Bears played not to lose instead of playing to win, and it burned them.

Oh, the 4th down series call. ya.

Maybe what to do is to take the deep shot on first down, and then shut the series down with runs. At least then the clock keeps running instead of what the Bears did, which is stop the clock with an incomplete pass cop.

Hard to say. I suspect there is more sympathy for the Bears strategy among coaches than there is among fans and the pundit class. Eberflus has been watching the Bears **** up 4th quarter’s all year shooting themselves in the foot. Yes, the strategy didn’t matter as you say in hindsight. Counterpoint, a rested Bears defense, with the odds of winning that game were exceedingly high. Something like 90ish percent IIRC, although what specific point that occurred I don’t know. The Bears featured a quarterback with poor clutch play history, and a propensity to lose the ball and take hits in the backfield in bad spots. Maybe you actually do want to play not to lose given the circumstances. Maybe there should be a separate oddsmaker for the Bears.

[HearshotKDS]

No one is confused. It was stupid. One first down on either of the 2 drives and the game is likely over.

Subjectively. Kurt Warner called it “smart football”.

‘Be smart, take points, put it on the defense’

These guys are dinos that played in a different era. Surely of all people the guy that led that Rams offense should realize how "putting it on the defense" in today's game isn't smart. They were in a dome, Detroit had all their playmakers healthy, their o line was a bit banged up but it's not like Chicago was stopping them -- Goff was stopping them. Once Goff reverted back to his near MVP form they marched right down and put the game away.

Odds of converting a 4th and 1 are like 2/3, probably quite a bit higher (like 80%) if it's tush push close. It was certainly a short yard both times from what I could tell. So we'll guestimate a 70% chance to just end the game and force Detroit to burn TOs and clock. That seems like pretty good odds to me. And at that point if you didn't get it, at least you would likely have time to get another possession if needed, with more than 29 seconds.

Bears played not to lose instead of playing to win, and it burned them.

Yale says QB sneak on 4th and 1 has an 82.8% success rate - https://sports.sites.yale.edu/success-short-yardage-play-types-fourth-down - but this article is from before the tushpush era so its probably higher in todays NFL.

[panthermark]

The whole thing was a mess down the stretch. The play-calling, the personnel...all of it.
I'm wondering if Foreman getting hurt played a part in Herbert getting the rock. Why not Johnson? Herbert is NOT a between the tackles, power runner.
I wonder what audibles were available?
Can Davis play LG so we can get back to a dominant right side?
Did have a 3rd string center playing impact things (along with swapping Tev)?

[kyrv]

Question for the audience, how many incoming QBs do you think will be elite franchise QBs? How many better than Fields (they will be on rookie deals of course which is a big deal)?

Let's be generous and say 2 elite QBs, could we pick them out of a lineup? It's just as the season winds down not sure the QB class will be as good as advertised months ago.

[fleet]

Read on Twitter

[dice]

Odds of converting a 4th and 1 are like 2/3, probably quite a bit higher (like 80%) if it's tush push close. It was certainly a short yard both times from what I could tell. So we'll guestimate a 70% chance to just end the game and force Detroit to burn TOs and clock. That seems like pretty good odds to me. And at that point if you didn't get it, at least you would likely have time to get another possession if needed, with more than 29 seconds.

Bears played not to lose instead of playing to win, and it burned them.

on the flip side, it is a substantially lower success rate to score 2 TDs than 1 TD and a FG with a few minutes remaining

play to win, play not to lose...that's all gobbledygook to me. by and large you should be playing the percentages. and when you have a 98% chance of winning, "playing not to lose" might be the right call. i.e. passing on the 70% chance to end the game on 4th and short

i suspect that the analytics would lean toward going for it to ice the game, but it's certainly not an egregious decision to take 3

actually, see the first tiny downtick from peak:



i think that's the FG. then the lions gained a modest 8 yards in 2 plays and it ticked back up a hair before the bottom falling out

[dice]

How many of the best WRs in the league were top 5 picks? Or even top 10 for that matter?

Most drafts dont have a WR picked in the top 5 so unexpectedly most of the top WRs arent top 5 picks. Here's a quick resource for highest drafted WR per draft- https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/the_highest_drafted_receivers_from_the_last_25_nfl_drafts/s1__33848729#slide_20

Quick list of top 5s though:
1996: Keyshawn Johnson - HOF
2000: Peter Warrick - Bust
2003: Charles Rogers - Bust
2004: Larry Fitzgerald - HOF
2005: Braylon Edwards - 1 Probowl season
2007: Megatron - HOF
2011: AJ Green - 7 Probowl seasons
2012: Justin Blackmon - Bust
2014: Sammy Watkins - Long journeyman career
2015: Amari Cooper - 5 Probowl seasons
2017: Corey Davis - Bust
2021: Jamarr Chase - 2 Probowl Seasons

Its not a sure thing as nothing in the draft is, but I would imagine it has to be one of the top hits % of any position in the top 5 - in the last 26 years you have a better chance of getting an AllPro than a bust with your top 5 draft pick WR.

if we think that harrison on a rookie contract (thru 2028) will help justin fields on a BIG contract make the bears consistent contenders, it's a reasonable consideration to take him even #1 overall. if not...maybe it's another wasted career like megatron

[Chi town]

Fields needs to learn the push toosh from Jalen and the Eagles. Fields sucks at it.

[MAQ]

Fields needs to learn the push toosh from Jalen and the Eagles. Fields sucks at it.

It was tough to see the ball, but I thought the one QB sneak the Bears did run on late down (can't remember if it was 3rd or 4th...think it was 3rd) and 1 was given a bad spot by the refs. Looking at the replay, Fields never gave up on the play and had a late push. Again, don't know exactly where the ball was...but whatevs.

It's been rare for them to run a QB sneak with Fields. Ran plenty with Baegent. Keep running the Tush Push with Kmet getting a direct snap whenever Fields is in there.

[Chi town]

https://youtu.be/X9Nf-erIkrU?si=B6GeeOaIft_jCSOA

JT hates a lot on then play calls and execution.

Fields played well but he also left a lot out there. Watch and see the guys he had wide open that he didn’t throw to. He still doesn’t anticipate. He has to see it before he throw. Doesn’t anticipate and throw.

[CjayC]

This dude isn't real, and this is all a simulation. I refuse to believe it.

Read on Twitter

[1985Bear]

Question for the audience, how many incoming QBs do you think will be elite franchise QBs? How many better than Fields (they will be on rookie deals of course which is a big deal)?

Let's be generous and say 2 elite QBs, could we pick them out of a lineup? It's just as the season winds down not sure the QB class will be as good as advertised months ago.

History says the best QB drafts yield 3 good QBs. Typically 1-2 good ones come out each year but it’s harder than you think. From 2013-2015, America produced ZERO NFL QBs!! (Carr JimmyG 2nd rounders)

Caleb is getting a lot of bad press, but he will be the top pick. For now, if Bears get pick 1, just draft Williams. Don’t even trade Fields, he can be your vet While Caleb learns and if CW is elite, bench Fields and move on.

If Bears get pick 2 or 3, I am not moving off Fields for Maye, And go with Marvin and LT Alt/ Fashanu.


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