Road to a Championship start here, 2022 Draft.

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The negative, positive stat - NO's beat the best team in the league by 5, while leaving 10pts on the FT line.

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I have a lot to say about last night & I already have a tendency to be long winded, so I will try to keep it short.

Starting with the main matchup between Jonas & MVP Jokic.

Massive stat line for Jokic, However, look closer ... he was 10-20 from the field & 1-8 from 3 for 26 pts. Denver had to ride him through 3 Q's to prevent NO's from building too big of a lead into the 4th. What carved the Pels up was his court vision & ball IQ, (18 assists). Most of his 14 defensive boards came from the 2nd half NO's zoned brick fest with Green taking his floor spacers out for defense as he couldn't replace Jonas with Nance, lol.

Not ignoring Jonas offensively, He put up 22pts on 10 of 18 shooting matching Jokic's point production on slightly better efficiency as Jokic is no defender either. In forcing Jokic to work defensively there was a late 4th Q timely block on him along with his 1-8 fatigued 3pt shooting. Open looks, he was front rimming. Once again coming back to how I keep stating offense can play into defense & why Jonas who's not a good individual defender managed to be a part of three separate teams being top 5 defensively with him starting. (Offensive efficiency & rebounding).

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NO's 2 stars were night & day, half to half. Green is in part to blame as his propensity for thinking only defense to close allowed Denver to successfully shrink the court. However, all the blame doesn't fall on Green.

3rd Q Denver sagged off the defensive personnel Herb/Dyson & ignored Jonas on the 3 pt line as did BI lol.. Zion had 1 shot attempt with his porous defense & lack of spacing on court as BI went mid range ISO.. Jonas being the 40% shooter from 3 on floor, BI had him wide open on his strong side on more than 4 occasions from 3 but looked him off for a heavily contested mid range shot where you'd rather miss an open look from 3 than a contested look from mid range. Someone needed & needs to tell BI, Jonas is shooting better than 40% from 3. This type decision making along with the personnel on the floor contributed to Nuggets successfully shrinking the court 2nd half. BI made things more difficult for himself not trusting his teammate/s.

4th Q NO's once again failed to outplay Denver's bench with Zion on court & Jokic off.

The most encouraging thing for me was Zion not making but taking a 3 & a late Jumper for an & 1 in crunch time. Keep it up Z. That diversity is a must regardless of how many shooters on the floor. Keep the defense guessing as they did so well first half.

What's the main difference between Denver & NO's ?

Denver has the best overall player but I would argue NO's has more overall talent & depth. So what separates the 2 teams ?.. Their IQ & while Jokic single handily raises Denver's team IQ. NO's have 2 stars driving into heavy traffic while Jokic who shot 50% from the field, put up 18 assists, as someone by the name of Braun went off for 20 something points. Thinking the game, movement & trust. You can see the the Pelicans don't really think the game by the way they manage the late shot clock. In a couple possession game, Zion gambles defensively & gives up a quick basket followed by BI taking a quick shot & miss in the span of 10 secs, lol.

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NO's put up 70 pts first half with only 6 made 3's off diversity, movement & trust.

I have so much more to say lol but I'll leave it at that.

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In Pelicans first 12. The only teams they've faced with a losing record, are the Grizz on opening night & GS where Curry went supernova. They've gone through this rough stretch of games without a handful of key players. Most notably Herb, where the team is 6-2 with, 0-4 without. They've faced several teams with strong PG play, without their starting & backup PG.

Denver 2x (1-1) would be (10-2)
Mavs 2x (1-1) would be (10-2)
Minnesota 2x today (0-1) they're (9-3)
OKC (1-0) would be (9-3)
GS (0-1) they're (6-7) now without Curry & Green
Houston (0-1) they're (6-4)
Knicks (1-0) they're (7-3)
Atlanta (0-1) they're (6-6)
Memphis (1-0) they're (2-8)

Curry was hot in the GS loss. Houston, was a poor execution loss & if NO's beat Minnesota today they will have split games with the top half of the West. They don't poorly execute the Houston game. The only bad loss short handed during this tough stretch with up to 6 rotation players out, was really GS.

With more than 3 key rotation players still out, 5 of the 6 wins in 12 games are against PO teams/contenders. At some point healthy or not, NO's is going to go on a nice little winning streak.

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Lakers are 7-6 with 3 wins against Portland & Memphis. I have hope their 24 pick lands NO's their big man of the future, .Alex Sarr.

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11:03 - Jonas blks Milton
10:51 - Jonas makes 2pt shot
10:01 - Jonas make 2pt jump shot
8:55 - Jonas makes 12 foot jump shot
7:30 - Jonas is subbed

(108 - 96) NO's, 3 possession, 8pt lead

From 7:30 to 4:30 when Jonas is subbed back in to help a stalled offense.. NO's had made only one FG over that 3 min span. Scoring 4pts total. Green effectively iced his hot hand for defense, so the wolves didn't have to.

(112 - 108) NO's, 1 possession lead

Money, Green was telling himself with the 8pt, 3 possession lead he would sub Jonas who was hot to protect it but instead he stalled the offense subbing his hot hand for a 3 min momentum shift based off that decision. Wolves had no answer for Dyson & Jonas 2 man game, till Green sat him. The play after his sub, was a Dyson TO.

Jonas 25pts (10-15) 11 boards, 3 assists was getting easy looks 4th Q till coach iced him.

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Dyson is making progress. He had a good game overall but he needs to stop picking up his dribble.

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BI had a good first 3Q's. He was trusting his teammates despite their failures to convert. BI was making the correct reads.. 4th Q ISO ball... not so much.

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Under a cooler head. I want to reference the officiating from the Wolves loss.

Early in the game refs called a lot of soft fouls to muck up & slow down the game. The reduced flow, preventing the home team & crowd from building momentum on their early lead.

Having mentioned that, what I really want to talk about is the Gobert's blatant moving screen late in the game to set up Kat's jumper. Do they make that call if that were Jonas & not Gobert ?, NO's & not Wolves ? Tell me NBA what constitutes a moving screen?. Seems your refs have a wide range of subjectivity on what they will, won't allow & for who. In the Houston game, Jonas barely moving in relation to the type screens Gobert sets, Brooks is awarded for flopping on the screen instead of receiving the tech flop to aid Houston's late run. Now facing the Wolves with the game on the line, they let Gobert set a blatant moving screen for Kats late go ahead jumper. Got to love their wide ranging subjectivity. Their "inconsistency" of their rule, has cost NO's 2 close games.

Funny enough, Zion got more FT's as a rookie because there was more hype behind him than there is now. He's constantly driving into a lot of contact with no fouls being committed, apparently.

Jonas, who's set many screens over his long career over multiple teams, has suddenly forgotten how to in NO's, lol. He's been hit with more moving screens in NO's than his entire career outside of it. Funny that.. Also, funny how these calls are usually momentum builders for the other team & not the odd variety... (If no one else does, I see your **** NBA).

If the NBA called the moving screen with the same standard for Gobert as they do Jonas. He'd foul out before the half & Wolves would have committed an offensive TO on Kat's late go ahead shot that ultimately won them the game ...

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NO's went down 4 to start the 2nd Q when Jonas was subbed in. NO's went on to a 22-4 run for a 13pt half time lead.

Yeah but can he play defense. Sorry couldn't resist.

Jonas 8pts / 7rebs / 6 assist +20 in a 13pt game (13 mins)

The difference when he's not being ignored offensively

This is a 15m contract not a Vucevic 30m contract. Bulls can only wish

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Pels fans saying, Jonas defense has been better the last 4 games against the cream of the West. Why is that ?

Simple & straight forward answer, Daniels over CJ defensively, better ball denial & Herb no longer cleaning up for 4 offensive players by himself giving the slow footed big less space to close & defend in. Watch & see what happens to Jonas D when CJ is reinserted into the starting rotation.

Reason Jokic had 18 assists is because (I won't name, names). Gordon kept losing his primary defender.

If not for Green pulling Jonas 4th Q vs Wolves with no Zion playing. NO's would be 4-0 against the best the West currently have to offer while still missing 3 key players..

If NO's believe in Dyson they need to leave him starting. Bring CJ off the bench as needed, Green can choose from there whether to close with him or not.

It becomes an issue because you don't want Hawkins to lose minutes either with Jose back being a fan favorite.

With Jonas - Zion - BI - Herb & Daniels proving to be an effective starting 5. With Nance, Murphy & CJ back. NO's could have Jose/CJ - Hawkins - Naji/Murphy - Nance/Zeller lighting up bench units. With Murphy being the more interchangeable defensive piece for spacing with the starters replacing any of BI, Herb or Dyson without losing defensive length. I'd love to see a rotation with (Jonas/Zion), Murphy, BI, Herb & Daniels. Big & small ball options

The deadline upgrade target with the remaining depth & possible pick capital, is a defensive rim runner/shotblocker who can preferably hit an open 3 in a best case scenario - (Jonathan Issac)

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NO fans might not like my words so I'll use a depth chart to say it.

Centre - Jonas 15m - Zeller 743,000 = 15,7m
PF - Zion 34m - Nance 11m = 45m
SF - BI 35m - Murphy 3m set to ext - Naji 1.7m = 39.7m, set to increase
SG - Herb 14m - Hawkins 7m - 21m
PG - CJ 35m - Daniels 7m - Jose 2m - Kira 5m = 49m

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This is how I would attempt to refine the minutes & cap issue

C - Jonas - (Issac/Nance) - Zeller = 30 (resign Jonas draft future replacement)
PF - Zion - Murphy - Ryan = 40m (with Murphy extension looming)
SF - BI - Naji = 36m (With BI extension looming)
SG - Herb - Hawkins = 20m (With Herb extended & Hakins 1st yr of rookie scale SG is set)
PG - Daniels - CJ/Jose - Kira - Seabfon = 50m (A decisions needs to be made on CJ, Jose & Kira)

CJ brings veteran leadership & makes the Pels more talented now but creates a cap issue later with his age & max contract, considering the emergence of cheaper options in Hawkins & Daniels.

Jose is a fan favorite & appropriately priced backup but not as talented as CJ, Daniels & Hawkins.

Kira doesn't have a home here to develop properly.

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I see people saying CJ is better than Dyson so there's no way he should start over CJ. While true the veteran is a more proven scorer/player than Dyson. Causation is not correlation. The starting unit benefits far more from the defensive upgrade than offensive one. Where Green was pulling Jonas for Nance, he should have been subbing CJ for Dyson.

Last 4 games vs the top of the West still short handed without key players including CJ is proof in the pudding.

When CJ was starting & Daniels was coming off the bench, not injured as CJ is now, the team wasn't as effective.

The only thing some fans r right about is CJ is a vet Green won't replace with Dyson even if it's to a benefit. Main reason I was apposed to the initial trade.. This team would be far more effective with CJ coming in for Daniels to prop the offense & give a change of pace. Daniels helping Herb set a defensive tone for a stacked offensive roster who's main weakness is defense, is just common sense. Jonas can't effectively guard in space, Zion ball watches & Ingram is a passable defender at best & while CJ has been better defensively than I originally gave him credit for, he doesn't have the ball denial capability that Daniel does.

Last night for example, Pels scored their first 8 buckets with defense & good ball movement. Does that situation require an offensive upgrade to a defensive one ? lol Pels main issue early was weak TO's & poor rebounding. Once the rebounding issue was rectified, they buried Sacramento because what they were doing offensively was very sustainable despite shooting 60%.

As I've repeated many times here. Jonas has been apart of 3 teams being top 5 defensively because of his own efficiency (60% career) as well as the fact that the lineups he plays in also score efficiently with him on court.

Let me elaborate the point. Jonas was subbed in 2nd Q down 4 with momentum in Sacramento's favor. NO's went on a 22-4 run to end the half with a 13 pt lead... Offensive momentum shifted. Jonas was +22 in his first 13mins in a 13pt lead. CJ is a better scorer but Jonas is more efficient & he impacts his teammate efficiency. You stat guys out there, tell me. What's Herb's/Daniels offensive #''s look like with Jonas & without. Derozan made a career playing off of Jonas screens n rolls & ability to create 2nd chance opportunity..

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Against the Wolves, Daniels 2 man game late 4th with Jonas scored the first 4 buckets of the Q. After Jonas was subbed, Dyson's first possession was a TO & NO's scored one FG for the following 3mins of play till Jonas was subbed back in.

When a team is scoring efficiently it puts a pressure on an apposing team offense to score.

Sacramento's high powered offense is what fuels their defense. If they were as good defensively without the offensive pressure NO's would not have scored 8 straight from the tip.

Watch the offensive regression as Kings could not contain NO's offense

Kings by the Q - 31 / 22 / 16

NO's by the Q - 29 / 31 / 34

Was NO's scoring because they were getting stops with the non defensive big men Jonas/Zion or was their offensive efficiency fueling their defense ?

Was it tired legs behind the Kings forced 3's or the fact they had marginal room for error with NO's scoring efficiently ?. or both ?

I've said it before, Griff's Cavs that beat the peak Warriors for a championship had the worse post defense of any PO team that year but Love opened the paint for James & they effectively traded 2's for 3's.

When Jonas Raptors met that Cavs team, they used the 3ball to play Jonas out the game who was dominating the paint & boards. That would not have happened if Raptors had better perimeter defenders than Derozan but it happened because Derozan was the teams offensive star. Reason Raptors traded for Ibaka, who ultimately as a defensive small ball 5 made no difference to the Raptors weak perimeter defense. As a matter of fact, Raptors ended up getting blown out with Ibaka starting in place of Jonas. They had their only 2 wins vs Cavs with Bizz because he was strong enough & quick enough to deny James dribble penetration.

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Like I read other forums, I know the people making these posts have also read my posts here. I don't have an account but want to respond.

Poster says "If you want a young team that is growing & doesn't care about going far, you can play Dyson over CJ".

lol Pretty sure NO's would be 4-0 against the top teams in the West even with Zion sitting the Wolves game if Green was a little better 4th Q without CJ even playing. Does 4 wins against the best teams in the West sound like pure development to you, lol. Me neither.

Whereas, give CJ credit he was playing well before injury (mostly against bench units in a 2 man game with Jonas & floor spacers). If NO's had a defensive rim runner they could pull Jonas early to play with CJ off the bench. Then Grenn can choose to close appropriately.

Some food for thought. With CJ playing well, Nance was Greens go to defensive solution to the starters, Jonas efficiency & rebounding being off court Whereas Nance has offensive limitations as a replacement along with NO's suffering on the boards. Dyson is starting to show playmaking & a steady shot from 3 To go with his ball denial, switch ability, defensive length, & added rebounding presence. So I'd argue you lose more going from Jonas to Nance as a defensive solution, than CJ to Dyson.

Return argument... Yeah but CJ is a max veteran...

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Sports illustrated suggesting Magic could/should make a play for Lavine in the Bulls fire sale. They state Pablo & Wagner need better spacing. I have 2 trade suggestions

1 - a direct trade with Magic as an alternative to their interest in Lavine for spacing.

(CJ 34m) for (Issac 17m 2y, Harris 13m 1yr)

Issac is under contract for one more yr & Harris is expiring. The deal adds a defensive PF/C to roster while shedding 18m considering the small 5m TE.

2 - a indirect trade with Bulls to net Issac considering he only has a yr left on his control for a rebuild trade.

(Nance, Kira, pick) for (Issac)

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The response is out to defend CJ starting & it's an easy one to counter. His leadership & offense.

Lets start with the record of the starting guards.

With CJ/Herb = 4 wins (Memphis, NY, OKC, Detroit) - 2 losses (GS, Atlanta)
With Herb/Hawkins = 1 loss (Denver)
With Daniels/Hawkins = 3 losses (Wolves, Houston, Mavs)
With Herb/Daniels = 3 wins (Maves, Denver, Kings) - 1 loss (Wolves) 1pt last possession choke

Notice, Herb & Daniels separated have sub 500 records but together they crush the toughest teams faced in the schedule. Herb or Daniels with an offensive guard for spacing CJ or Hawkins are 4-6 against the weaker part of the schedule apposed to what should have been 4-0 against the top 4 teams in the West in the stronger part, when playing together.

What that is saying to me is, that 1 defender alone with the starters ------- is not enough & where Green was turning to Nance, he should have been turning to Daniels as the team losses suffered with CJ, GS & Atlanta have what ? strong PG play, where Daniels has shut down Luka, Conley & Fox for the recent wins..

Lets be honest leadership is a BS argument. CJ's leadership while injured, helped NO's in their last 4 games.

Down to the nitty gritty of the argument for CJ. The offense.

With Herb & Daniels starting, Pels starters have an offensive rating of 147.7 against the top 4 teams in the West including the #1 ranked defensive team, the Wolves. Tell me how CJ will bolster that ?

The argument for Daniels. The defense.

With Herb & Daniels starting. Pels starters have a defensive rating of 105.7 which would be ranked #1, having faced the Mavs #2 offence, The Nuggets #5 offence, The Wolves #10 offence, The Kings #11 offence. Kings 113.8 ORTG the lowest of the teams faced.

If NO's don't ride this trend, it would be a big mistake. If this group regresses then consideration for CJ to start back can be made. Don't break, what's not broken.

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As an additional note... During this 4 game Herb/Daniels stretch, the Pels bench with Zion have lost some of their minutes, where CJ would be impactful as a primary scorer. With Daniels defense starting. NO's offensive bench would hunt lesser comp...

NO's potential bench keeping Daniels as a starter.

(Zeller/Nance)
Murphy
Naji
Hakins
CJ

This lineup would ignite most benches with Herb & Daniels setting the defensive tone for the game. If the unit is struggling against the zone. Murphy is an option to come in, Hawkins is an option to come in & CJ is an option to come in.

Then from there, Green would/should. appropriately close according to performance. 

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What defense has over offense, is it's consistency in effort. What I know & what you should know is what this team will get from Herb & Daniels starting.

Is there any surprise that all of Jonas, BI & Zion have looked more competent with the defensive boost of not playing 1 but both defenders together.

I can say more but I feel I've said more than enough.