PG Wizards - Bucks Escape

[jschligs]

Marjon, AJJ, AJG and the rest of our bench played like complete ass on both ends. They were getting blown by off the dribble it was gross.

[tedbrogen]

i'm one of the most staunch Andre backers on this board, but he's a rookie and it's still pretty early. give it time.

What five players would you have had out there with the Wiz inbounding and the Bucks up three with 16 seconds left?

You have a timeout so you don’t have to worry about offensive skill at all.

5 guys who i know are not going to foul anyone. if it goes to overtime, whatever. we played with our food that whole game but i would have felt extremely comfortable going to OT.

Please name those five. Please keep in mind Beas and Giannis both just had very dumb reach fouls for And1s on drives right before this which was a factor as to why it got to be a one possession game.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

It's still November.

Our SRS is 2.82.
The Rockets, Knicks and Magic have 4.60-4.70 right now. Clear contenders.
The Hawks have 3.26 and are 7-7.
Minnessota and OKC dominate the West right now while the Suns have 0.44, Dallas have 0.83 and the Kings have 0.35. The Warriors who have 2.34 are 8-9.

Stop using advanced stats in November to prove your point.

We are clearly disjointed right now but we will be contenders. We have Giannis who is the 2nd best player in the league at worst and Dame who is the most clutch guard in the league.
They played just over 10 games together and we already look unstoppable on offense and especially in the 4th quarter and clutch time.
All we need to do is to improve our defense to a good enough level until the playoffs.

I rather have this problem to solve than pray to God we finally hit some 3s in the playoffs to punish an elite wall defense or fix our half court problems without a single PG in the roster or Bud to make adjustments in a playoff series.

we havent had a championship caliber SRS in 3 years. stop using hyperbole to discredit the stat if youre going to use the stat.

its the absolute best number to determine longterm outcome and our number completely fits the eyetest to boot.... for years now. some of us even called that wed be worse with Bud gone so this shouldnt be a surprise either.

and the idea were going to "put it all together" because... giannis.... because....dame....is not a given in any way shape or form with virtually anything weve seen this year using any advanced numbers individually or as a team and thats let alone SRS

maybe we "put it all together"... maybe we dont. right now were not even remotely close. thats what the discussion is and thats where it should remain

FINALLY... the idea that some of us are discussing this like this...... DOES NOT MEAN WERE ROOTING FOR FAILURE..... to me thats a punk response to the discussion. give me a freaking break in fact

[tedbrogen]

Driving home listening to the radio post game broadcast, Justin Garcia was touting the Bucks stats in "clutch" situations (games with a margin of 5 points or less in the the last 5 minutes of regulation). The Bucks have the 2nd best clutch time record in the NBA at 6-2. Only the Mavs are better at 7-1, with their sole loss at Milwaukee. The Bucks offensive rating is 127.6, third best in the NBA behind Indiana and Dallas. Their defensive rating is 96.1, fourth best in the NBA behind OKC, Toronto and the Lakers.

If Griffin deserves blame for the ugly stats the Bucks have posted to date, he should get some of the credit for their play in the "clutch".

While their overall play has been a cause for concern if not alarm, their play at the end of close games should provide some hope for the future.

Clutch time stuff is entirely due to how good Dame and Giannis are. Dame might be the best clutch time offensive player in the entire league. And somehow in clutch time he goes from defensive liability to guy who doesn’t get beat. (That steal when he got switched onto KP was Jrue level D)

And we know from 21 what Giannis can do in clutch time on both ends.

Besides that, they’ve gotten a bit of luck in some situations, for instance Shamet rushing that wide open corner three last night.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

dame is really good individually.

giannis is really good individually

brook is good.

middleton is good.

the suns have similar talent and that means ****.

it means **** for us too

[sidney lanier]

Griffin's postgame pressers are refreshingly positive. I'm not a fan of a coach or manager who tells you someone played well when you can see yourself that he didn't (Brewers fans will recall the days of "Soup pitched great" comments from Ned Yost as a washed-up Jeff Suppan was lobbing meatballs to opposing hitters), but with Griffin you sense a level of sincerity and respect for his players and their talents.

Still a few burrs to be ground off this machine, but as I've observed before we're further along at this stage than I thought we would be.

[tedbrogen]

It's still November.

Our SRS is 2.82.
The Rockets, Knicks and Magic have 4.60-4.70 right now. Clear contenders.
The Hawks have 3.26 and are 7-7.
Minnessota and OKC dominate the West right now while the Suns have 0.44, Dallas have 0.83 and the Kings have 0.35. The Warriors who have 2.34 are 8-9.

Stop using advanced stats in November to prove your point.

We are clearly disjointed right now but we will be contenders. We have Giannis who is the 2nd best player in the league at worst and Dame who is the most clutch guard in the league.
They played just over 10 games together and we already look unstoppable on offense and especially in the 4th quarter and clutch time.
All we need to do is to improve our defense to a good enough level until the playoffs.

I rather have this problem to solve than pray to God we finally hit some 3s in the playoffs to punish an elite wall defense or fix our half court problems without a single PG in the roster or Bud to make adjustments in a playoff series.

we havent had a championship caliber SRS in 3 years. stop using hyperbole to discredit the stat if youre going to use the stat.

its the absolute best number to determine longterm outcome and our number completely fits the eyetest to boot.... for years now. some of us even called that wed be worse with Bud gone so this shouldnt be a surprise either.

and the idea were going to "put it all together" because... giannis.... because....dame....is not a given in any way shape or form with virtually anything weve seen this year using any advanced numbers individually or as a team and thats let alone SRS

maybe we "put it all together"... maybe we dont. right now were not even remotely close. thats what the discussion is and thats where it should remain

FINALLY... the idea that some of us are discussing this like this...... DOES NOT MEAN WERE ROOTING FOR FAILURE..... to me thats a punk response to the discussion. give me a freaking break in fact

I have to give credit to GoS here. I’m pretty sure GoS was one of the main people beating the SRS drum last season saying it meant the Bucks weren’t really true contenders and lo and behold, the were not (Giannis injury in the first round will be brought up as an excuse but in 21 they also lost Giannis for two games and instead of wilting, they won the ECF without him).

I’m certain all of us want the Bucks to win a title this year but some of us don’t see the current version of the defense and/or the head coach as being anything near championship level. And it doesn’t look like one small adjustment will move the bottom third defense to top third defense which you usually need to be to win a championship (outside of three outlier teams in the past 40+ years).

[tedbrogen]

Griffin's postgame pressers are refreshingly positive. I'm not a fan of a coach or manager who tells you someone played well when you can see yourself that he didn't (Brewers fans will recall the days of "Soup pitched great" comments from Ned Yost as a washed-up Jeff Suppan was lobbing meatballs to opposing hitters), but with Griffin you sense a level of sincerity and respect for his players and their talents.

Still a few burrs to be ground off this machine, but as I've observed before we're further along at this stage than I thought we would be.

Did you honestly think they’d fall to bottom third in drtg? 21st currently, not sure if that counts last night.

I didn’t because I was told AG is a defensive coach.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

double post

[PhoenixMilwauke]

We are 11-5, one game behind Boston, on pace for 56 wins. That's not all that different than the previous few years. All this with a gimp Middleton and while playing all the young guys which Bud never did. We are getting the best out of Brook, blooding the youngsters and Giannis/Dame are probably about 50% of where they will be in 5 months.

On top of all this, we are in pole position for the NBA Cup even as the other major contenders like Boston, Denver, Philly falter. I suspect we will complain all the way to the NBA Championship (and Cup) just because we aren't winning games by 10+ points.

Please compare this year’s net rating to prior years.

We are 20% into the season with a new coach and a ball dominant superstar that Giannis isn't used to. We also don't have Middleton playing more than 22 mins. And we are getting better.

They were -8.8 after the 1st 4 games. They went back to the drop for the Knicks game and since then, they have a +5.5 rating. In those 12 games, we lost 3 games - One in Boston and two away games that Dame didn't play in. I don't think we have peaked yet and the trend is upwards. There will be more scheme changes and personnel changes before the playoffs. Unless we plateau at this level, I won't be pessimistic.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

It's still November.

Our SRS is 2.82.
The Rockets, Knicks and Magic have 4.60-4.70 right now. Clear contenders.
The Hawks have 3.26 and are 7-7.
Minnessota and OKC dominate the West right now while the Suns have 0.44, Dallas have 0.83 and the Kings have 0.35. The Warriors who have 2.34 are 8-9.

Stop using advanced stats in November to prove your point.

We are clearly disjointed right now but we will be contenders. We have Giannis who is the 2nd best player in the league at worst and Dame who is the most clutch guard in the league.
They played just over 10 games together and we already look unstoppable on offense and especially in the 4th quarter and clutch time.
All we need to do is to improve our defense to a good enough level until the playoffs.

I rather have this problem to solve than pray to God we finally hit some 3s in the playoffs to punish an elite wall defense or fix our half court problems without a single PG in the roster or Bud to make adjustments in a playoff series.

we havent had a championship caliber SRS in 3 years. stop using hyperbole to discredit the stat if youre going to use the stat.

its the absolute best number to determine longterm outcome and our number completely fits the eyetest to boot.... for years now. some of us even called that wed be worse with Bud gone so this shouldnt be a surprise either.

and the idea were going to "put it all together" because... giannis.... because....dame....is not a given in any way shape or form with virtually anything weve seen this year using any advanced numbers individually or as a team and thats let alone SRS

maybe we "put it all together"... maybe we dont. right now were not even remotely close. thats what the discussion is and thats where it should remain

FINALLY... the idea that some of us are discussing this like this...... DOES NOT MEAN WERE ROOTING FOR FAILURE..... to me thats a punk response to the discussion. give me a freaking break in fact

I have to give credit to GoS here. I’m pretty sure GoS was one of the main people beating the SRS drum last season saying it meant the Bucks weren’t really true contenders and lo and behold, the were not (Giannis injury in the first round will be brought up as an excuse but in 21 they also lost Giannis for two games and instead of wilting, they won the ECF without him).

I’m certain all of us want the Bucks to win a title this year but some of us don’t see the current version of the defense and/or the head coach as being anything near championship level. And it doesn’t look like one small adjustment will move the bottom third defense to top third defense which you usually need to be to win a championship (outside of three outlier teams in the past 40+ years).

thanks for acknowledging.

i also flat out called that our championship era ended the day bud got fired. id warrant i was the biggest biotch on the board over it.

the trade for dame theoretically may help... but its possible based on early returns that whatever we gain on the one end we'll lose on the other AND overall team chemistry along with it.

i was also probably allens biggest fan boy here too and the idea jrue AND allen going out wasnt going to dramatically harm us defensively even WITH bud was something many here simply ignored. allens metrics had him as one of the best team defenders in the league for his position and jrue had the best on/offs and net rating on the team. you dont lose BOTH of them and not have some serious wariness of what happens next.

so yeah... not just crap SRS.... but losing bud, losing grayson allen as a throw in, and like it or not maybe even the jrue for dame straight up swap itself.... none of these were givens that we were getting better.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

We are 11-5, one game behind Boston, on pace for 56 wins. That's not all that different than the previous few years. All this with a gimp Middleton and while playing all the young guys which Bud never did. We are getting the best out of Brook, blooding the youngsters and Giannis/Dame are probably about 50% of where they will be in 5 months.

On top of all this, we are in pole position for the NBA Cup even as the other major contenders like Boston, Denver, Philly falter. I suspect we will complain all the way to the NBA Championship (and Cup) just because we aren't winning games by 10+ points.

Please compare this year’s net rating to prior years.

We are 20% into the season with a new coach and a ball dominant superstar that Giannis isn't used to. We also don't have Middleton playing more than 22 mins. And we are getting better.

They were -8.8 after the 1st 4 games. They went back to the drop for the Knicks game and since then, they have a +5.5 rating. In those 12 games, we lost 3 games - One in Boston and two away games that Dame didn't play in. I don't think we have peaked yet and the trend is upwards. There will be more scheme changes and personnel changes before the playoffs. Unless we plateau at this level, I won't be pessimistic.

i will agree the last 12 games have been very encouraging after the start we had. of course the start we had made us the early laughing stock of the league so thank god

[sidney lanier]

i will agree the last 12 games have been very encouraging after the start we had. of course the start we had made us the early laughing stock of the league so thank god

I think you underestimate the volatility of your statistical metrics and of trends in general. OK, we were the laughingstock after a few games.

We're a long way from knowing who will get the last laugh, but trying to project a dynamical system full of future in-course corrections from a few early season outcomes is statistical folly.

[buckboy]

A win is a win, but damn. Praying Middleton will be fine. I wanna see Griff grab the mic one of these times ala Pop and say "we need you lazy motherf*ckers to start making some g-damn noise".

Yeah it was the crowd's fault.

Jesus Christ.

[buckboy]

Middleton is quickly becoming by far the worst contract in the nba


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Ah, no.

[BigO]

There's this idea that AJJ is an elite defender. He is far from it. He continues to let his guy get by him. He did it repeatedly in the summer league, but because of his elite athleticism was able to block their shots from behind.

Nonetheless, I think he needs to keep getting minutes. He can be a very good defender if he realizes he is in the pros and needs to keep guys in front of him. But mainly he needs to be played, because he is already one of the smarter players on the team. His bball IQ is needed.

[emunney]

Full season SRS is moderately predictive but certainly not dispositive. You can't cite SRS as a reason to believe we'd lose to the Heat. Anybody know what the Heat SRS was last year?

[crowhead76]

Full season SRS is moderately predictive but certainly not dispositive. You can't cite SRS as a reason to believe we'd lose to the Heat. Anybody know what the Heat SRS was last year?

Is that a negative .13 I see.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

i will agree the last 12 games have been very encouraging after the start we had. of course the start we had made us the early laughing stock of the league so thank god

I think you underestimate the volatility of your statistical metrics and of trends in general. OK, we were the laughingstock after a few games.

We're a long way from knowing who will get the last laugh, but trying to project a dynamical system full of future in-course corrections from a few early season outcomes is statistical folly.

but then why discuss it at all? certainly youd agree that using the most tried and true measures of how a team is doing.... regardless of the sample size....is less problematic then the simple venting vs homer posts that result from eyetests as the alternative

much of the optimism that remains on the board revolves on basic giannis/dame reputational hype. im kinda over that after 3 months.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

Full season SRS is moderately predictive but certainly not dispositive. You can't cite SRS as a reason to believe we'd lose to the Heat. Anybody know what the Heat SRS was last year?

the heat last year were a generational outlier