PG Wizards - Bucks Escape

[LUKE23]

We knew the defense was going to drop off a decent amount trading Jrue. However, being bottom 25% of the league bad so far is on coaching more than personnel.

With the team currently as constructed, AJJ or Marjon should be starting for Beasley. Additionally, we don't really have the personnel to shut down the paint AND shut down the 3-point line if we are starting Midds and Dame on the perimeter. Move GA closer to the rim, start dominating the glass again while shutting down the paint, and let teams try and outscore you from the perimeter.

We saw the start of this season with Brook trying to play out on guys, it doesn't work. GA is a much better athlete but his biggest defensive impact is also at the rim and cleaning up the defensive glass so we can get out and run.

Griffin is a bad coach. It's pretty damn clear so far. We just have to hope it improves.

[Bucksmaniac]

A little late on this but great game last night for Brook, I may be 2nd occupant behind PP on Brook Island but love me some BroLo. May end up a super underrated performance if we go far in the in-season tournament given the implications. We needed that win and every one of his 10-10 inside the arc and 7-7 on free throws. I’m not as down on the defensive performance given the high degree of difficulty of a lot of their makes last night, Kuzma was well defended on several of his 3s and some tough drives they converted as well.

I’m wondering if acquiring Caruso could be a huge help in getting Giannis back inside defensively to tag team with Brook. He can cover so much space on the perimeter and raise other’s intensity perhaps.

[rilamann]

Bucks haven't even come close to playing their best basketball yet and they're a 3pt loss on the road vs Boston from having the best record in the league through 16 games.

You guys who are still obsessed with Bud are memes at this point.

you dont have to play mental gymnastics about maybe winning a game and/or best records and all this other made up nonsense about how good we are or how were gonna maybe be if this or that had happened or does happen in the future because you believe it will

16 games in all you have to do is keep an eye on SRS.... were at 2.82 thats 10th in the league.

our expected win-loss of 9-7 is another decent projection but not as good as srs. that has us 13th which i believe is a bit low considering it dosnt have SOS involved. its is interesting that our point diff would have us as a playin team right now tho. thats where were actually at in that neighborhood thru 16 games.

so bottom line if you want to be real...if wed picked up this or that or whatever else youre going on about it doesnt mean ****. were still a 1st or second round exit team at this point just like the last two years by all best available metrics

So your logic is that because currently in November (Despite being 3pts away from having the best record in the league) we look like a team that might get bounced in the 1st round, we should have never fired the coach who actually did get us bounced (by a #9 seed) in the 1st round.

This is why I said you Bud guys are memes at this point, it's almost hard to believe you guys are actually being serious. Some of the pro Bud posts read as someone sarcastically mocking the pro Bud guys. But it's actually the pro Bud guys being serious.

And in no way have the Bucks with Dame & Giannis in the 4th quarter looked like a team that would get bounced in the 1st round.

It's still November with a new coach and new superstar and we haven't even begun to play our best basketball. Bucks look like a work in progress, I am not saying we're firing on all cylinders by any means,

Yet we're a 3pt loss on the road in Boston from owning the best record in the league. And probably the front runner to win the season tournament.

I feel like there is a lot to be optimistic about. Talk to me in mid January and if we haven't made any progress between now and then, maybe I 'll start to see it your way a bit more.

[emunney]

Full season SRS is moderately predictive but certainly not dispositive. You can't cite SRS as a reason to believe we'd lose to the Heat. Anybody know what the Heat SRS was last year?

the heat last year were a generational outlier

The league has changed.

[Frank Nova]

Wiz fans insisting last night was Poole and Tyus Jones best games of the season so far. I’d say that’s more of a testament to how bad we’ve been all year vs opposing guards than Poole/Jones turning any sort of corner. Poole might be the most overrated player now, he’s a 6th man at best. We need to figure out the defense at some point…

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

Full season SRS is moderately predictive but certainly not dispositive. You can't cite SRS as a reason to believe we'd lose to the Heat. Anybody know what the Heat SRS was last year?

the heat last year were a generational outlier

The league has changed.

i question this too but im not going to punt however decades in a row it held true for what happened one single wonky year just because it was the last.

denvers numbers werent all that impressive either regular season i will acknowledge that as well. mostly probably just their unique home court situation and an easy path in the playoffs is my take.

i still want to see us in the 5.00s or above. thats the money hole. thats all im saying

well that and since i was a bitch all summer with the changes and basically called this **** i wont ignore that either. there is some of that going on

[sidney lanier]

i will agree the last 12 games have been very encouraging after the start we had. of course the start we had made us the early laughing stock of the league so thank god

I think you underestimate the volatility of your statistical metrics and of trends in general. OK, we were the laughingstock after a few games.

We're a long way from knowing who will get the last laugh, but trying to project a dynamical system full of future in-course corrections from a few early season outcomes is statistical folly.

but then why discuss it at all? certainly youd agree that using the most tried and true measures of how a team is doing.... regardless of the sample size....is less problematic then the simple venting vs homer posts that result from eyetests as the alternative

much of the optimism that remains on the board revolves on basic giannis/dame reputational hype. im kinda over that after 3 months.

I'm not saying don't discuss results and performance or the metrics that purport to track them, albeit with a heavy dose of reduction and simplification. But I AM saying listen to Bruce Lee and pay attention to the real thing.

[emunney]

the heat last year were a generational outlier

The league has changed.

i question this too but im not going to punt however decades in a row it held true for what happened one single wonky year just because it was the last.

denvers numbers werent all that impressive either regular season i will acknowledge that as well. mostly probably just their unique home court situation and an easy path in the playoffs is my take.

i still want to see us in the 5.00s or above. thats the money hole. thats all im saying

well that and since i was a bitch all summer with the changes and basically called this **** i wont ignore that either. there is some of that going on

I agree with you that I'd rather it was higher than lower, for sure. And I think we've mostly played badly, particularly defensively, and we're going to have to get better to win 4 series in a row. I just don't think it means much of anything right now, and even for a full season, teams are a lot closer together than they've been, to the extent that 'upsets' are going to happen almost as much as they don't.

[tedbrogen]

For those asking if anyone thinks this team could lose in the first round, I most certainly do. If Dame or Giannis miss anytime in any series, the team as currently constructed is in a lot of trouble because they can’t string together stops.

There are ways to fix it such as inserting the youngsters into the starting lineup in place of Beas or trading for a good defender like Caruso, as well as figuring out how to keep Giannis inside the arc on D so they can get back to dominating the rim and glass (which also would get them back to scoring in transition since Giannis gets the board and goes instead of someone else looking to find Giannis (or worse yet Beas starting the fast break then throwing the ball over Portis’ head). Maybe that means they go back to the bottom of the league in steals and give up some above the break threes, but so be it. The currently plan is giving up everything.

[Dick Tate]

much of the optimism that remains on the board revolves on basic giannis/dame reputational hype. im kinda over that after 3 months.

It’s November 25th. When did you start the clock?

[MickeyDavis]

much of the optimism that remains on the board revolves on basic giannis/dame reputational hype. im kinda over that after 3 months.

It’s November 25th. When did you start the clock?

I guess we'll see GOS next season. Which apparently starts in August.

[Jez2983]

We have some really interesting points made by some posters that get lost in having an extreme interpretation of them. Stats can definitely show things other than 'we are really bad' or 'we are actually very good'.

[HKPackFan]

I gave myself 20 games to think this team will need to gel, but the concern has been how much worse the defense looks compared to prior years.

Not somewhat worse without jrue but from a good D to a total **** show.


Again. There's some growing pains, but some of it looks like a scheme that doesn't fit the players or a gimmick D like we had with kidd.

Hopefully things turn around or the light bulb goes on with the coaches and the scheme is abandoned or tweaked.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

much of the optimism that remains on the board revolves on basic giannis/dame reputational hype. im kinda over that after 3 months.

It’s November 25th. When did you start the clock?

practically probably its the day bud got fired but when other teams with more turnover have come roaring out of the gate then us....then just like the national media, not the homer local guys...its time to turn the volume up

[VooDoo7]

A win is a win, but damn. Praying Middleton will be fine. I wanna see Griff grab the mic one of these times ala Pop and say "we need you lazy motherf*ckers to start making some g-damn noise".

Yeah it was the crowd's fault.

Jesus Christ.

Use your brain.

[GHOSTofSIKMA]

much of the optimism that remains on the board revolves on basic giannis/dame reputational hype. im kinda over that after 3 months.

It’s November 25th. When did you start the clock?

I guess we'll see GOS next season. Which apparently starts in August.

nah i'll still watch every game i can just like all but maybe 1.5 so far.... eagerly, with massive optimism. that said im also more interested in whatever criticism i get from pp as to whether im crossing a line with my negativity

i do love your optimism tho MD i used to be that way to a fault too. and i mean that seriously.

it was just too punishing to always expect the best and be the eternal apologist for crappy basketball with how it turned out every year the championship not withstanding

[-Jragon-]

Most of us weren't surprised about the D being bad; we called it.

As soon as Beasley was labeled our defensive stopper and before that even we realized early that DPOY candidate Brook wasn't best at the AG trapping style. All the threads leading up to the season were how can our 1-3 be matadors and it will somehow work.

[jimmybones]

If Khris is ok, it would be really great if this aggressive defense designed to force turnovers or whatever, is changed asap. Is bad for his knees and probably Achilles; could also be bad for our other veterans in a similar way also. I hope someone from the coaching staff reads our forum, and at least begins to think about these possibilities.

The darkly comical irony is that Bud’s conservative style and priority to protect paint scoring would probably be perfect for a group of our offensive firepower and would be better suited for our personnel. With Dame we’d have the math in our favor. We don’t need to force turnovers, we can out score anyone when we aren’t opening the rim to easy scoring when the pressure is inevitably penetrated.

[Bucksmaniac]

If Khris is ok, it would be really great if this aggressive defense designed to force turnovers or whatever, is changed asap. Is bad for his knees and probably Achilles; could also be bad for our other veterans in a similar way also. I hope someone from the coaching staff reads our forum, and at least begins to think about these possibilities.

The darkly comical irony is that Bud’s conservative style and priority to protect paint scoring would probably be perfect for a group of our offensive firepower and would be better suited for our personnel. With Dame we’d have the math in our favor. We don’t need to force turnovers, we can out score anyone when we aren’t opening the rim to easy scoring when the pressure is inevitably penetrated.

Plus with an older roster in general among our core the less energy we have to spend running around and trapping the better.

[paulpressey25]

The darkly comical irony is that Bud’s conservative style and priority to protect paint scoring would probably be perfect for a group of our offensive firepower and would be better suited for our personnel. With Dame we’d have the math in our favor.

Yep. The only thing I've seen Griff do better is allow Brook to be Net's interior scoring Brook in the post. That's huge against certain teams, and something Bud was too stubborn to make happen.

Just hoping Brook's health can hold. With Middleton in bad shape, we're going to ride Brook's low post scoring a lot here.