Inaugural In Season Tournament 2023-24

[UCFJayBird]

Thinking about the wildcard, six teams have 1 loss or less. One of those will win their group.

Bucks 2-0; vs was, @mia
Knicks 2-1; vs cha
Heat 2-1; vs mil
Nets 2-1; vs tor
Cavs 2-1; vs atl
Celtics 2-1; vs chi

The path where we rely on the wildcard has the Nets defeating the Raptors and the Celtics losing to the Bulls, or the Nets or Bulls just blowing the heck out of the Bulls or Raptors. The wildcard race will be tough.

I don't feel too good about making wild card to be honest. Particularly because of Group B (Group A, so long as the Cavs don't beat the Hawks by 15+ no one will pass us there, could happen of course though).

Bucks play the Heat
Knicks play the Hornets

If the Bucks beat the Heat they win the group. Knicks would only need to beat the Hornets by 5 to pass us in PD. Obviously if Knicks lose that wouldn't matter. If the Bucks lose to the Heat and Knicks win, we wind up with a 3-way tie there. The Bucks have a huge PD, so they'd still win the division, and again the Knicks only need to beat the Hornets by 5 to pass us. If Knicks lose and Heat beat the Bucks to win group, Bucks probably still beat us on PD unless they lose by 18.

To me, odds seem to favor the wild card coming from Group B.

Let's just root for Brooklyn to blow it against Toronto (unfortunately the game is in Brooklyn).

[eyriq]

Thinking about the wildcard, six teams have 1 loss or less. One of those will win their group.

Bucks 2-0; vs was, @mia
Knicks 2-1; vs cha
Heat 2-1; vs mil
Nets 2-1; vs tor
Cavs 2-1; vs atl
Celtics 2-1; vs chi

The path where we rely on the wildcard has the Nets defeating the Raptors and the Celtics losing to the Bulls, or the Nets or Bulls just blowing the heck out of the Bulls or Raptors. The wildcard race will be tough.

I don't feel too good about making wild card to be honest. Particularly because of Group B (Group A, so long as the Cavs don't beat the Hawks by 15+ no one will pass us there, could happen of course though).

Bucks play the Heat
Knicks play the Hornets

If the Bucks beat the Heat they win the group. Knicks would only need to beat the Hornets by 5 to pass us in PD. Obviously if Knicks lose that wouldn't matter. If the Bucks lose to the Heat and Knicks win, we wind up with a 3-way tie there. The Bucks have a huge PD, so they'd still win the division, and again the Knicks only need to beat the Hornets by 5 to pass us. If Knicks lose and Heat beat the Bucks to win group, Bucks probably still beat us on PD unless they lose by 18.

To me, odds seem to favor the wild card coming from Group B.

Let's just root for Brooklyn to blow it against Toronto (unfortunately the game is in Brooklyn).

Yeah, I'm with you

[nymets1]

Or maybe get the Celtics and Nets to both lose.

[UCFJayBird]

Or maybe get the Celtics and Nets to both lose.

Just the Nets losing would be enough, though obviously i'd pleased with both as it'd give us a chance to catch BOS in the standings as well. But I don't want to be greedy here, let's just root for a Brooklyn loss

[eyriq]

One underrated benefit of the IST is going to be the increased exposure top teams get to each other. I think it increases the potential for the development of fun and engaging rivalries, in the spirit of the 80's.

[drsd]

I don't feel too good about making wild card to be honest.

Knicks beat the Heat close meaning is is still mathematically possible for Orlando to be the wild card even if New York beats Charlotte.

The Magic is 4 points up over New York in the tie-breaker, and has the third tie breaker locked (total points scored: Orlando has won their games with high scoring and New has won with low scoring).

So:

1) Orlando needs the Nets to lose
or
2) Orlando needs the Celts to win
or
3) Orlando needs the Knicks to either lose or win by 4 or less *

There are other low-chance scenarios to get in (a big loss by the Bucks, etc.), but if any of the above things comes true, Orlando is a near lock to be in the in-season tourney. The biggest threat here for Orlando is the Heat beating the Bucks by more than 11 points. Possible but improbable.

If #1 or #2 happen, Orlando IS the 3-seed. If Orlando is in on #3, the Magic would be the 4-seed. Points 1 and 2 mean Orlando is in the tourney no matter what happens in other games. Point 3 means it is highly-likely the Magic is in, but not mathematically certain.



* = this season the median margin of victor has been 10 points; close wins are rare this season. Indeed average margin of victory has been a staggering 11.8 points given the quite high number of 20+ and 30+ wins. Something like 20% of games has been won by more than 20 points this season

[drsd]

One underrated benefit of the IST is going to be the increased exposure top teams get to each other. I think it increases the potential for the development of fun and engaging rivalries, in the spirit of the 80's.

I also like that teams aren't giving up with 90 seconds left. Every point matters meaning teams are playing hard all 48 minutes!

[drsd]

Raptors at Nets: Brooklyn will be playing on a day's rest (not a BtB) and has not traveled in a long time. The Nets will be well rested and the computers has this at a Brooklyn loss of at a 36.3%

Bulls at Celts: Boston is playing on two-days rest, and will not have traveled (at home game before). The Bulls is currently 0-3 in their in-season games. The computers love the Celts here at 80.4%

So: if the odds above are true, the Odds the Magic win their group C is currently at 87.5%. Add to this the "some chance" odds at the wild card, the Magic is much, much more likely than not to be in the IST.

[basketballRob]

Tomorrow is the big day to find out who we play.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

[tooler]

It's weird that the group games are so spread out. I guess they have to be to drive engagement.

[drsd]

Today's the day to be either a Celts or a Raptors fan (or a Hornets fan for a wild card bid).

Celts on a 79.1% and Raptors on 37.1%, meaning a cumulative 86.2% chance the Magic will be the 3 seed.

and p.s. we do want the Nets to win by less than 15: Brooklyn would win a tie breaker with a crushing win.


In conclusion: we all must be a Raptor's superfan today:

[DiplomaticMagic]

I dont get this at all.

I heard if Brookyln loses, we win the group. But wouldnt it be possible for the Celtics to win group if they won by 23+?

Either way, from what I understand, we have a good chance of moving on

[magik9113]

I dont get this at all.

I heard if Brookyln loses, we win the group. But wouldnt it be possible for the Celtics to win group if they won by 23+?

Either way, from what I understand, we have a good chance of moving on

we have them due to head-to-head

[D J C]

The perfect next two days would be the Bulls upsetting the Celtics (without KP and possibly Jrue) tonight, the Raptors taking care of the Nets, Bucks beat the Heat, and us not blowing it against the Wizards

We'd be 13-5, tied for 1st in the East, and playing Indy again next week to start the knockout round of the Tourney

[UCFJayBird]

I dont get this at all.

I heard if Brookyln loses, we win the group. But wouldnt it be possible for the Celtics to win group if they won by 23+?

Either way, from what I understand, we have a good chance of moving on

Point Differential only matters in a 3+ team tie. I.e. if Celtics & Nets win tonight, all three of us are 3-1 and it comes down to Point Differential (thus we would need Boston to win by less than 22 and Brooklyn to lose by less than 14). If Brooklyn loses, we win because we beat Boston. If Boston loses, Brooklyn wins because they beat us.

The Wild Card for each conference will come down to the teams with the best record outside the group winners. If there's a tie (likely to have multiple teams at 3-1) it will come down Point Differential there, even if it's only two teams (since they would not have played each other in a tournament game).

Wild card scenarios that eliminate us if we don't win the group:

1. Miami beats Milwaukee by less than 17 and New York loses (Miami wins group, Milwaukee beats us on PD).
2. Miami beats Milwaukee, New York wins by 5 or more (three way tie in their group, one of them wins group, another beats us on PD).
3. Cleveland beats the Hawks by 17 or more.

There may be other scenarios i'm missing as well, lol.

[drsd]

I dont get this at all.

I heard if Brookyln loses, we win the group. But wouldnt it be possible for the Celtics to win group if they won by 23+?

Either way, from what I understand, we have a good chance of moving on

To add to the above, only if Brooklyn wins would a 23 point win get Boston in.

[drsd]

Wild card scenarios that eliminate us if we don't win the group:


2. Miami beats Milwaukee, New York wins by 5 or more (three way tie in their group, one of them wins group, another beats us on PD).

As I see this, if Orlando does not win their group, a New York 5-point eliminates Orlando. Am I missing something?

[UCFJayBird]

Wild card scenarios that eliminate us if we don't win the group:


2. Miami beats Milwaukee, New York wins by 5 or more (three way tie in their group, one of them wins group, another beats us on PD).

As I see this, if Orlando does not win their group, a New York 5-point eliminates Orlando. Am I missing something?

I think that's correct. I guess regardless of Miami/Milwaukee result, a NYK win by 5+ either gets them the outright group win, or gets them the wild card since they'd be above us in PD.

[Message Boar]

So what I'm taking from the above post is that we're rooting for Boston to win, actually?

[D J C]

So what I'm taking from the above post is that we're rooting for Boston to win, actually?

Yes, if Nets win we need Boston to win to force the tie breaker to go to points differential, as h2h is tied up at 1-1 between ORL/BKN/BOS