zero rings wrote:NoDopeOnSundays wrote:zero rings wrote:
Jokic was an awesome rookie and an all-nba caliber player by his second year (26.3 PER, 7.3 BPM). If it's true that nobody on this board could see what was coming, then it's an indictment on this board, not on young Jokic.
The deficiencies I'm alluding to are his poor shooting, poor decision making, and his lack of strength. As I said, things like shooting and decision making are more innate than people want to admit, and while he can make marginal improvements it's unlikely those skills will ever be strengths.
As for his physical strength, he can add plenty of muscle and still get pushed around due to his high center of gravity. Porzingis has put on a lot of weight since his rookie year and still lives primarily as a jump shooter. In 5 years' time I expect Wemby to be very much the same. It's one of the limitations of being a lanky 7'4 alien.
The Nuggets themselves didn't see this coming, or else they would have traded Nurkic during his rookie year. Nobody after his rookie year saw 2x MVP and generational player coming, you didn't either
Poor decision making isn't a talent deficiency, it's just a young player making mistakes, neither is strength. He has to get better as a shooter, which is really the only talent deficiency but his FT% leads me to believe he'll be solid in the future especially if he gets his shot selection more disciplined.
Kristaps had an injury that derailed his career and got top heavy, even with that in mind he was 89th percentile in post ups last year and is in the 100th percentile this year. They aren't the same either, he's longer and better around the basket right now than Kristaps was as a rookie, Kristaps was an awful finisher for how big he was, Victor is shooting almost 20% higher at the rim than Kristaps rookie year.
There's a difference between putting on weight with a body builder trainer like Kristaps did and what Victor and his camp have talked about, their model for him is Giannis. I don't expect Victor to be like Kristaps, he's a better athlete and more fluid, if he ends up putting on mass like Giannis did then a higher center of gravity won't mean too much, much the way it hasn't meant much for Giannis who is almost always significantly taller than the guy guarding him.
I couldn't have predicted that Jokic would be a generational player, but all-NBA and MVP candidate were real possibilities after his rookie year. The Nuggets were only slow to realize it because of internal politics. When a flabby second rounder starts outplaying everyone on the team, dudes are going to catch feelings when he starts taking their minutes and touches. He had to earn his spot more than probably any superstar in history.
Victor may be a better finisher around the rim than KP, but he's going to struggle to get there against a set defense for the same reasons. He's easily knocked off balance and I don't see that changing too much as he adds muscle. You can't compare him to Giannis, who is 5 inches shorter and not nearly as lanky.
Again, this isn't to say he can't be a great player. But there are serious red flags with his offensive game, and some of the more bullish pre-draft predictions are looking silly right now. Woj actually said he was going to be the best defensive and offensive player in the world by year 3. That's not happening.
If the Nuggets knew he was going to be an MVP caliber player there would never have been any discussion on the future between them. The Cavs traded all their dead weight LeBrons rookie year. The point is as great as he was not even his own team saw it right away, nobody did, bigs take longer to develop which is why it's also been 22 yrs since a 7 footer won rookie of the year.
He's easily knocked off his path now, if he develops his body right then that will be harder to do in the future. If he were similar to KP he'd be shooting under 60% at the rim like he was as a rookie, instead he's at 74%, KP didn't 73% at the rim until his 4th season which was at 24 and his 5th year in the NBA.
We can definitely compare, height is relative in terms of position, Giannis is + for his position and is defended by guys who are several inches shorter than himself. They have a lower center of gravity than him but it really doesn't matter as long as he gets within 6 feet of the rim. When Victor is older he'll be playing C where he's taller than guys but not 6-8" taller than the guy guarding him, the height difference between him and most Cs will be similar to Giannis and most PFs. I'll start judging him when he's strong enough to play center full time, which I would think is next year.
Two of your talent deficiencies were strength and decision making, those are correctable things without too much hassle. The only real concern is his shooting and health. He's going to be an all-star very soon, and if his body develops correctly he's going to be the best player in the league in short order.