Game 18: Bucks at Heat - 11/28/23 - 6:30 - TNT/BSWI

Post #1 » by **MickeyDavis** » Mon Nov 27, 2023 9:57 pm

Nothing cures a hangover like a night in South Beach.

Win and we advance in the tourney. Lose and I believe we still advance.

We beat them by 8 last month at home. Almost squandered a 25 point lead. Herro had a great game. Bam did not play. Herro is close to returning but is out for this game. Bam missed their last game with a hip but practiced fully today and could play tomorrow night. The Heat have no released their initial injury report.

Khris is listed as questionable on the Bucks initial injury report. I don't expect him to play but it looks like he's "progressing".

Go Bucks.

Ryan5UW · Post #2 » by **Ryan5UW** » Mon Nov 27, 2023 10:05 pm

I’m a little confused on the what happens if we lose. On the broadcast during the Portland game they made it seem like point differential would come into play, but the first tiebreaker is head to head, right? If Miami wins, they have the head to head tiebreaker, right?

MVP2110 · Post #3 » by **MVP2110** » Mon Nov 27, 2023 10:11 pm

Ryan5UW wrote:I’m a little confused on the what happens if we lose. On the broadcast during the Portland game they made it seem like point differential would come into play, but the first tiebreaker is head to head, right? If Miami wins, they have the head to head tiebreaker, right?

If the Knicks beat Charlotte then there is a 3 way tie and PD comes into play

PhoenixMilwauke · Post #4 » by **PhoenixMilwauke** » Mon Nov 27, 2023 10:39 pm

MVP2110 wrote:
Ryan5UW wrote:I’m a little confused on the what happens if we lose. On the broadcast during the Portland game they made it seem like point differential would come into play, but the first tiebreaker is head to head, right? If Miami wins, they have the head to head tiebreaker, right?

If the Knicks beat Charlotte then there is a 3 way tie and PD comes into play

If the Knicks do end up ahead of us on PD, how do they decide who is 2nd? Based on the PD from the 3 way tie or does it then go to H2H between Miami and us for the 2nd spot? I'm not seeing any clarity on this anywhere. So, I'm leaning towards the PD but would be nice to be sure. Just hope the Bucks win and make the entire thing moot.... would be nice to see a home Knock-Out game.

MVP2110 · Post #5 » by **MVP2110** » Mon Nov 27, 2023 10:44 pm

PhoenixMilwauke wrote:
MVP2110 wrote:
Ryan5UW wrote:I’m a little confused on the what happens if we lose. On the broadcast during the Portland game they made it seem like point differential would come into play, but the first tiebreaker is head to head, right? If Miami wins, they have the head to head tiebreaker, right?

If the Knicks beat Charlotte then there is a 3 way tie and PD comes into play

If the Knicks do end up ahead of us on PD, how do they decide who is 2nd? Based on the PD from the 3 way tie or does it then go to H2H between Miami and us for the 2nd spot? I'm not seeing any clarity on this anywhere. So, I'm leaning towards the PD but would be nice to be sure. Just hope the Bucks win and make the entire thing moot.... would be nice to see a home Knock-Out game.

If there are multiple teams tied for the Wildcard spot it would go to PD I believe. If somehow it ended up as only 2 teams from the same group then I'm not sure but that seems unlikely

HKPackFan · Post #6 » by **HKPackFan** » Mon Nov 27, 2023 10:54 pm

Welp. My nephew is a big basketball fan here in Miami, and it's his bday.

I'm taking him to the game he's excited (obviously a heat fan but that's OK) . Looking for tix now.

Bucks usually don't win in Miami, I hope the trend of winning in Miami continues. (I've seen too many bucks losses when I lived here).

For me this is now a MUST WIN!

Hoping for 140-124

Post #7 » by **MickeyDavis** » Mon Nov 27, 2023 11:08 pm

Bam is probable, Jimmy is questionable (ankle)

Frank Nova · Post #8 » by **Frank Nova** » Mon Nov 27, 2023 11:12 pm

HKPackFan wrote:Welp. My nephew is a big basketball fan here in Miami, and it's his bday.

I'm taking him to the game he's excited (obviously a heat fan but that's OK) . Looking for tix now.

Bucks usually don't win in Miami, I hope the trend of winning in Miami continues. (I've seen too many bucks losses when I lived here).

For me this is now a MUST WIN!

Hoping for 140-124

Dame could really do a number on the entire Heat culture by going nuclear tomorrow night. This will likely be a high scoring game, I like 140-124 being the new 120-104. It’s fitting. Go Bucks!

Frank Nova · Post #9 » by **Frank Nova** » Mon Nov 27, 2023 11:24 pm

MickeyDavis wrote:Bam is probable, Jimmy is questionable (ankle)

Duncan Robinson is probable as well. Not as important as Bam and Jimmy but somewhat important still none the less.

skbucks1985 · Post #10 » by **skbucks1985** » Mon Nov 27, 2023 11:40 pm

Frank Nova wrote:
MickeyDavis wrote:Bam is probable, Jimmy is questionable (ankle)

Duncan Robinson is probable as well. Not as important as Bam and Jimmy but somewhat important still none the less.

I wouldn't discount Duncan Robinson's importance to this team. He's been their 3rd or 4th best player this season (depending on how much you discount Herro because of his absence). He's playing significantly better than he was a year ago and is a major reason they haven't really felt the absence of Strus and Vincent.

Frank Nova · Post #11 » by **Frank Nova** » Tue Nov 28, 2023 12:31 am

Yeah Duncan Robinson is definitely a very good role player for that roster construction and Spo knows how to use him. Also Tyler Herro is out for tomorrow night, still won’t see a full strength Heat team yet. Must win.

neiLz · Post #12 » by **neiLz** » Tue Nov 28, 2023 12:56 am

Must win. Schedule loss

blazza18 · Post #13 » by **blazza18** » Tue Nov 28, 2023 12:57 am

Here we go again

PhoenixMilwauke · Post #14 » by **PhoenixMilwauke** » Tue Nov 28, 2023 1:28 am

MVP2110 wrote:
PhoenixMilwauke wrote:
MVP2110 wrote:
If the Knicks beat Charlotte then there is a 3 way tie and PD comes into play

If the Knicks do end up ahead of us on PD, how do they decide who is 2nd? Based on the PD from the 3 way tie or does it then go to H2H between Miami and us for the 2nd spot? I'm not seeing any clarity on this anywhere. So, I'm leaning towards the PD but would be nice to be sure. Just hope the Bucks win and make the entire thing moot.... would be nice to see a home Knock-Out game.

If there are multiple teams tied for the Wildcard spot it would go to PD I believe. If somehow it ended up as only 2 teams from the same group then I'm not sure but that seems unlikely

The 2nd rank team with the best PD from the 3 groups will be the wild card. How do they decide who is 2nd in a 3 team tie within the same group? I'm assuming they decide 1-2-3 based on PD. But, if they say #1 based on PD and then #2 is between the other 2 teams, we would lose out because of the H2H. Hopefully, we don't have to find out.

MartyConlonOnTheRun · Post #15 » by **MartyConlonOnTheRun** » Tue Nov 28, 2023 1:38 am

neiLz wrote:Must win. Schedule loss

Ehhh more of a classic "Must Not Lose By More than 22 Points" game

GoldenAntlers · Post #16 » by **GoldenAntlers** » Tue Nov 28, 2023 2:29 am

Looking forward to the final five and a half minutes.

mediocrityrules · Post #17 » by **mediocrityrules** » Tue Nov 28, 2023 6:55 am

GoldenAntlers wrote:Looking forward to the final five and a half minutes.

One thing's for sure, there's no point putting the game on until after the first quarter has finished at least.

pifhluk23 · Post #18 » by **pifhluk23** » Tue Nov 28, 2023 1:33 pm

PhoenixMilwauke wrote:
MVP2110 wrote:
PhoenixMilwauke wrote:
If the Knicks do end up ahead of us on PD, how do they decide who is 2nd? Based on the PD from the 3 way tie or does it then go to H2H between Miami and us for the 2nd spot? I'm not seeing any clarity on this anywhere. So, I'm leaning towards the PD but would be nice to be sure. Just hope the Bucks win and make the entire thing moot.... would be nice to see a home Knock-Out game.

If there are multiple teams tied for the Wildcard spot it would go to PD I believe. If somehow it ended up as only 2 teams from the same group then I'm not sure but that seems unlikely

The 2nd rank team with the best PD from the 3 groups will be the wild card. How do they decide who is 2nd in a 3 team tie within the same group? I'm assuming they decide 1-2-3 based on PD. But, if they say #1 based on PD and then #2 is between the other 2 teams, we would lose out because of the H2H. Hopefully, we don't have to find out.

Tie Breakers in order:

1. Head to Head
2. Point Diff
3. Total Points

skbucks1985 · Post #19 » by **skbucks1985** » Tue Nov 28, 2023 2:29 pm

The likelihood of the Bucks missing the play-in is very slim. The simplest way would be a blowout win by the Heat (29+ points) and a blowout win by the Knicks (22+ points) and the Bucks finish 3rd in the 3-way. But because the Bucks are 20+ points ahead on point differential versus the other teams that haven't been eliminated, it makes it very difficult to see it happening.

sidney lanier · Post #20 » by **sidney lanier** » Tue Nov 28, 2023 2:41 pm

Seems like winning the first quarter would be a good thing. And since the Heat are far from an offensive juggernaut, I'm comfortable retaining the good old score prediction despite league trends. Nice that we catch them first game back after a 5-game road trip. I don't track it, but I suspect there is something to the belief that this first home game often produces a poor effort. Probably the wife asking about that stripper glitter on your dirty shirt.

120-104.