Daffy wrote:old skool wrote:KingDavid wrote:That's not the only determining stat for performance, especially one that has more to do with who you're lined up with in game and how you do as a group. Bam was our best player tonight. Don't take much stock in this game. We'll see what happens when we have Jimmy and Herro in the lineup.
I agree about not putting too much stock in this game.
My point about Adebayo and Antetokounmpo was that Bam did not pretty much go head to toe. Milwaukee's starters were outscoring the Heat starters throughout the game; Milwaukee starters all finished with a healthy +/. Miami was winning the bench battle. When both teams played their starters in the 4th, Milwaukee won somewhat comfortably, outscoring the Heat 27-18 to close the game.
Miami will be better with Herro and Butler available. Adebayo looked tired in the 4th Q playing 42 minutes. Milwaukee will be better if they stay healthy and develop cohesion with their new schemes.
Bucks might get better offensively, but unfortunately not defensively. Their defense guys are poor offensive players, so playing them actually hurts their offense as well. I don't see the Bucks hitting another level outside of the 2 man game between Giannis and Dame.
The Bucks are an interesting study in committing to a top heavy roster, with obvious concessions to poor depth and limited capability mid-roster.
While there is folly trying to draw definitive conclusions from small sample early season results, Milwaukee is getting improved results on both end of the court, especially at the end of tight games.
After 18 games, Milwaukee has the NBA's 4th best Ortg, the 21st Drtg, and the 11th Net Rating. But over the last 9 of those 18 games, Milwaukee has the 3rd Ortg, the 14th Drtg and the 2nd best Net Rating. Improvements in every area, with the biggest improvement coming on defense. (For comparative purposes, Milwaukee's Defensive Rating in the last 9 games is 114.6, compared to Miami's 113.1 - not a huge gulf.)
Per NBA.com the results have been even better in "clutch" situations this season. In the last 5 minutes of games with the teams within 5 points or less of each other, Milwaukee has the 1st Ortg, the 3rd Drtg and the 1st Net Rating. That explains their 8-2 record in those "clutch" games and belies your narrative that the Bucks best defenders hurt their offense. Milwaukee's Drtg in 42 minutes of "clutch" situations is a 3rd best 95.8, compared to Miami's 23rd best Drtg of 116.9 in the clutch and a 5-5 record in those games.
Those results mirror the flow of the game last night. Milwaukee led big early with their starters, fell back when they played a lot of reserves, and surged ahead again at the end with the starters back together on the court. Milwaukee will be vulnerable any time their top players are not fully available. Their roster is top heavy. But that top heavy roster has improved significantly in defense performance, especially in the clutch where it is winning games by dominating.