Road to a Championship start here, 2022 Draft.

[Duke4life831]

2 wins but just think there is too much overlap with that starting lineup. Ingram just looks so lost and forces things when he's the 3rd guy. He's either way too passive or way too focused on getting a shot up. There just seems to be no rhythm to his game the last 2 games.

[Whole Truth]

2 wins but just think there is too much overlap with that starting lineup. Ingram just looks so lost and forces things when he's the 3rd guy. He's either way too passive or way too focused on getting a shot up. There just seems to be no rhythm to his game the last 2 games.

Beat me to it. I didn't post last night because it was the most upset I've ever been in a 15pt win. My posts would not have been nice. So I'm back this morning under a cooler head.

IMO it's more than just overlap. CJ has a habit since his Portland days of dominating the ball, shot attempts & he's doing it inefficiently with more efficient options on court who are not defensively adept, outside of Herb. Imagine losing minutes with Jonas having a hyper efficient start with Wemby out to the tune of 18pts on 9 shots & be losing to a 3 win team, without it's best player in these minutes. It upset me.

I didn't even have to look at the box score to see CJ dominated the shot attempts, again, where the apposing teams weakness was the gaping hole at centre, which upset me. Jonas & Zion combined for 36pts on 21 shots in the miss match, whereas CJ put up 19pts on 18 shots. My math is not great but I think that is a 17pt efficiency difference on 3 shot attempts. BI & CJ over lapping to find a rhythm went 11-36, which is why Pels could not put the bad team away until they did 4thQ, which upset me.

The call to start CJ for spacing. Imagine if Daniels had gone 1-8 from 3 ... reputation before blame. On off nights like this NO's lose all the positives Daniels brings to the table over CJ down to him not dominating the ball, where it moves better & finds it's way to higher efficiency. If it were Daniels shooting 1-8, with his defense over CJ, I can tell you Spurs don't put up a 31pt 1st Q start & shoot 50% from the field for the half. Which upsets me.

The undersized Spurs without Wenby had 46 total rebounds to Pels 46 because of the inefficient shooting night, with Jonas pulling down 12 boards, 2 offensive, the Pels were +6 on the offensive boards. Showing the Spurs rebounds came against poor shot selection & efficiency.

The only positives on the night were, Murphy's return, the +6 offensive boards & the 27-29 (93% FT shooting)

As in the first 6 games of the season with CJ starting (-16) with the starting unit. It was the bench winning those early games. Who needs the +28 Daniels starting unit, with good starts over a 9 game 70+ min sample against better competition ... when you can start out slow & in the negative with CJ's 1-8 spacing against a 3 win team without it's best player & not put away the game until he stops struggling 4th Q trying to shoot himself out of a funk, while Spurs were raining threes on his coverage. Which upset me.

Hey look, we stumbled ass backwards into a solution to a problem, nah, lets go back to what wasn't working type stupidity. That upsets me most.

How many more slow starts will it take ?

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Lets not overlook that Dyson had 2pts in 11mins with decreased playing time, strategically lol, paired with the offensively inept centre Zeller against a team that started Collins & unknown backup. Where Zellers only 2 pts in 14mins, was on the FT line. Don't you just love defensive lineups with teams zoning Zion. Zeller was ignored to the point of putting up 0 shots in 14 minutes paired with Daniels spacing on court.

Hey, here's a great idea. Lets send Daniels recent progression back to obscurity when it's his defense & offensive progression in reps & experience that will raise this teams ceiling come PO's.

Starting CJ & ignoring Dysons recent progression, is beyond short sighted

Instead of getting Daniels into high pressure situations for experiences to progress his offensive development, lets have CJ who's game you know, shoot himself out of cold streaks instead & when PO's come hope when you need Daniels defense, he can just figure it out.

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Welcome back Trey. Cold start in his first game back, he put up 18 on 13 shots. Still a hyper efficient floor spacer that has great chemistry with Zion. Doesn't take him 20 shots to put up 20pts.

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Jonas struggled to start this game offensively yet the starters got off to a good start regardless of the fact.

Zion is the only starter under +12 take a guess as to why = - bench minutes.

Anyone who though Zeller is better than Nance, give your head a shake.

Up 8, Pels left 5 FT's on the line.

Now imagine Pels had 3 of their top shooters for these lost bench minutes.

[Whole Truth]

In an 8pt game with 5 FT's left on the line.

Starters

Jonas +18
Jones +17
Daniels +14
BI +12
Zion +5 (- bench minutes)

Zeller -10

The upgrade for the roster is as clear as day if NO's can rely on Nance being healthy.

[Whole Truth]

Hopefully undermanned on a B2B with Bulls looking to push pace, fatigue doesn't come into play.

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Cleanup those FT's

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Rough game for Jose.

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Jonas +13, Zeller -17, 6pt loss.

4th Q, after Pels tied the 7pt deficit, the Jonas sub for Zeller, led directly to a 6-0 run & momentum shift. Nothing in this game showed Zeller was going to be effective. The defense sub for the win, I mean loss.

[Whole Truth]

If Green was a little bit better down the stretch the team might have been able to pull this one out but he's not the reason they ultimately lost. The 4th Q Jonas sub after pulling the 7pt game even for an underperforming Zeller that led directly to a 6-0 run (It's possible Jonas could have been fatigued but with Colby on fire down the stretch, Daniels defense was on the bench in favor of Naji & that was a questionable decision. As with Daniels as an option, NO's might have been able to contain Coby better.

We saw the good start for the Pels with Daniels even though Jonas had a rough start to the game offensively.

The bench on the back end of a B2B, missing 3 rotation players were outscored (41-29) -12, the difference in the game & without all Greens shooters available outside of the rookie, I won't harp on him playing Zion with Zeller & Dyson with Bulls zoning. That could have been an availability issue, though it's been done when healthy. In part because CJ is starting over Daniels, which means that's Daniels bench minutes. What I've been arguing over rotations, minutes & development, a proper balance of everything.

Pels left another 7 free points on the line -7

The most accomplished shooters available with CJ, Trey & Ryan out. Jose & Hawkins, they went 4-12 from 3 on some open looks.

In a 6 point, 2 position loss.

The starters would have had to overcome that 17pt combined deficit from these 2 aspects of the game to win. NO's lost by 6. So considering Zion plays starters minutes with Jonas who was +13, Zion being -10 with Zeller -17, shows the bench difference in the game, outscored 41-29. How does a defensive unit give up 41pts? answer, they fail to put the ball in the basket. The none spacing Zion lineup which has been losing their minutes since Daniels got the start with CJ out. They need CJ. Which is what I've been arguing, overall, team balance, Not CJ's effectiveness as a player or starter. Daniels off the bench does not rectify a lack of spacing so as you saw against the 3 win Spurs, he had all of 2pt & 11mins off the bench because he was unplayable with it. However, his defensive acumen has shown to be effective with the offensive starters where he's been able to be effective on court for longer periods of time which will ultimately get him the experience he needs to grow his game. NO's have had strong starts with Daniels, so if you start the game by brining CJ off the bench. You keep what's working to start with Daniels where he gets valuable game experience & then CJ off the bench rectifies the offensive droughts & spacing bench minutes the team is currently losing badly. Then you close as necessary.



 

[Whole Truth]

Balanced team & minutes -

Jonas - Zion - Zeller
ZIon - Murphy
BI - Naji - Ryan
Herb - Hawkins
Daniels - CJ - Jose

Green can toggle between having Naji or Joas in the rotation. Then close as necessary.

[Whole Truth]

My last post for the day will be in defense of Green over the 3 of 4 recent losses coming against Utah & Bulls.

The first Utah loss even if healthy which the team wasn't would be considered a scheduled loss. After facing 6 contenders, PO teams in a row on the back end of 3 games in 4 nights, Pels had to play in Utah's altitude. Where even fully healthy, a loss, would have been understandable. Players were shorting their shots early in the game.

Utah revenge game. Pels were still without 3 of their spacing options against a team that has a lengthy shot blocker playing in a successful zone, where Daniels & Herb couldn't step up offensively to answer. With the shot blocker at the rim with closed lanes, neither player had it going from range. I don't blame Green or Daniels for the fact all their spacing options were sidelined. The starters, like in this Bulls loss, won their minutes with a depleted team.

The Bulls are not as effective as Utah in containing NO's offense minus their shooters because they don't have the shot blocking addition to their zone defense. However, with Nance & CJ out. Both Zeller & Jose had negative impact for an already weak bench unit. Which has been the case since Daniels got the call to start. Short 3 of their shooters & Nance, teams are successfully zoning Zion off the bench as Bulls were also +12 outscoring NO's bench 41-29 & as hard as it is to believe Zeller is a worse offensive option to Nance. Which is part reason pairing Daniels with Zeller while teams as bad as Spurs zone Zion, Daniels had only 2pts & 11mins against a 3 win team, after showing in over 9 games & 70mins worth of PT, he can help NO's beat the top half of the West pairing his defense with the starters offense. It helps both Jonas & BI are 3 level threats. BI however has faded back away from the 3pt line in recent games.

So in summary, not having all their shooting outside of a rookie Hawkins. Team zones have destroyed NO's bench with Zion. 2 of the 3 losses short handed have come on the back end of a B2B where teams desperate for wins were pushing pace. 2 games in which NO's could have won if they just made their necessary FT's a good clip.

Greens subs & rotation balance in my opinion could use some work but all in all. NO's current 500 situation is more based in health & scheduling than Greens potential missteps.

The 2 games that I questioned Green most was the 1pt Wolves loss & this Bulls loss. Both instances a Jonas 4th Q sub for a defensive option both instances led to a significant offensive drought & apposing team run, though I know to myself, defensive coaches prefer defensive big men, I lived through it with Casey already, he was utilizing Jonas offensive skills set as if he still had Tyson Chandler from his time with the Mavs... To close the Bulls game, I question why he didn't have Daniels man defense on Colby who went off late & Until I have his reasoning (Fatigue) among other factors etc... these are more questions, than blame.

[Whole Truth]

Got up early this morning & saw the topic of trading BI in part for the ramifications of his upcoming contract. The trade suggestion I had this past offseason for Brandon Miller, expiring Hayward & pick/s, would have been the optimal trade but this organization had it's eyes on Scoot instead. They like their PG's that can't shoot don't they... bullet dodged. As I've been saying, no move it's without it's risk & trading BI could backfire especially in making judgements where the rotations are not optimal.

I'm going to break my next topic into 3 parts - Which of the 3 max contracts to trade, pros & cons. I will start with Zion & end with CJ.

[Whole Truth]

Zion - pros & cons for keeping or trading.

The highest ceiling talent on the team. The youngest of the 3 max contracts & with BI's incoming contract, the better financial contract of the 2. The team has put up a better record with Zion & no BI but have yet to make the PO's with the injury riddled player. The issue with Zion outside of remaining healthy, is the versatility in his game as a #1 option. Off the bench, you can see how easy it is to game plan for him without the optimal spacing & even then it's an issue. I've made reference to Raptors successfully shutting down Giannis using the box 1 in their PO run. Which stopped the #1 Bucks seed dead in it's tracks, though they had optimal spacing & shooters around Giannis. Who is taller, longer & brings more to the table, than efficient scoring, like his defensive acumen & rebounding. To shut the Bucks down, all Raptors had to do was give Giannis the 3 point line. Here's the upside of this issue. Zion at a younger age has already shown more ability from range than Giannis currently, that it might not be out of the realm of a development question for him. The down side, is his will to take them. He's only taken 6 shots from 3 this yr & made 3. That will need to increase for this team with Zion at it's leader, to reach it's potential ceiling. If he can't & doesn't diversify his game, as I've mentioned, he doesn't have the defense, height, length, rebounding ability or health of Giannis.

If NO's were to entertain a trade - (A defensive PF/C who can shoot 3's, expiring value, pick/s)

What I would consider trading ZIon for if Pels were to trade him - (a draft trade for Alex Sarr, expiring value, pick/s)

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BI - pros & cons of keeping or trading

Also not a pillar of healt,h a defender or willing 3 point shooter. BI unlike Zion has 3 level diversity scoring which is easier to build with. He's set to be the most expensive of the 3 max contracts however in 2yrs with cap set to become an issue in retaining the teams quality depth. The team had made the PO's with BI & no Zion from a slow start to a season where acclimation of new coach & players was needed before finding chemistry. Like Zion, there's a need to be a more willing 3pt shooter, especially paired with Zion but BI is more comfortable & gravitates to mid range. Advanced stats say the mid range game is dead, BI showed that in the PO's vs Suns, it is not & his ability to make tough shots is being overlooked, even if those shots are less efficient, their will be a need for them. Issue with BI's affinity for the mid range is that it's affected by the way teams game plan for Zion, as is Jonas post game & the fact Daniel is not consistent from range. The lack of diversity in Zion's game turns his strength of gravity into a team weakness in a non optimal spacing environment, which makes the 3 level scoring ability of BI easier to build around or with. The problem with BI, is usage. The problem for BI, is that Murphy can potentially effectively replace him at a better price point. Murphy being an efficient floor spacer that already has great chemistry with Zion. If NO's were to choose to trade BI, they already have a potential in house replacement for his position who is more than willing to let the 3 ball fly. Problem with this solution becomes age of CJ & health of Zion as the teams top 2 remaining creators. Without them, Murphy cannot replace what BI brings to the table, which is a 3 level scorer, shot creator & playmaker. Murphy will be effective as a floor spacer but he doesn't have that level potential to his offensive game. If BI can effectively upgrade the centre position (Alex Sarr) with Murphy filling his spot in the rotation, it might not be an individual upgrade but it would be an overall team upgrade while addressing his upcoming contract situation & cap issue.

If NO's were to entertain a trade of BI - (A defensive PC/C or guard/wing who can create & space, expiring value, pick/s)

What I would consider trading BI for if Pels were to trade him - (a draft trade of Alex Sarr, expiring value, draft pick/s)

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Having done a quick trade evaluation of the 2 young Pelican stars, the max contract I would trade long before the 2, is CJ.

Recently a poster was trying to throw shade on those of us calling for CJ to come off the bench where he would be an expensive option with the cap ramifications. He threw out the teams 6-2 record with him vs the 5-8 record without. Here's some context to that miss leading post..

NO's with CJ & having Daniels available to come off the bench
CJ/Herb (6-2) losses to Atlanta, GS

4 of those 6 wins coming to bottom feeders Memphis, Detroit, Spurs & Sixers (without Embiid). The best 2 wins coming against NY & OKC with a big 2nd half come back run. Murphy was also available for a depth option against the Spurs putting up an efficient 18pts off the bench where CJ as a starter struggled the first 3 Q's. He was the most inefficient starter for the game with BI also struggling to find his rhythm as a result of CJ dominating the ball & taking the most shots of any starter/player as per usual ball & shot dominance. Main reason Pels didn't put the 3 win team without it's best talent away till the 4th Q.

Without CJ
Herb & rookie Hawkins (0-1) loss to Denver

Daniels starting, without having CJ available
Daniels & rookie Hawkins (0-3) losses to Wolves, Mavs, Houston
Daniels & Herb (5-4) losses to Wolves, Utah 2x, Bulls

5 wins coming against Mavs, Denver, Kings 2x, Clippers. In non B2B's being short 3 key rotation players & floor spacers with the bench play struggling.

As you can see, take into account SOS & the fact Daniels is starting with all the Shooters sidelined, Including CJ, in these 9 games, it's not just a role reversal lol, there's no CJ at all for depth & bench spacing. Where it has been the bench play that has been losing their minutes during these games without the team top 3 floor spacers. Wolves were a 1pt loss you could put on some poor decisions down the stretch. 1st Utah loss was the back end of a B2B of 3 games in 4 nights after a stretch where they played 6 contending teams in a row short handed & then had to play in Utah's altitude. The return game in Utah, they lost by one possession leaving 8pts on the FT line with their shooters still not available, as Utah played a successful zone with a lengthy shot blocker in the middle. The Bulls bench once again short handed outscored NO's 41-29 (12pts) in a 6 pt loss. Not sure how anyone can ignore with Daniels starting, Pels have had only the rookie Hawkins available for spacing the floor as teams benches successfully zone ZIon. Some of this is on Greens affinity for defense but availability is the main issue. Pels should have been & could have been 9-0 in a stretch they played 6 contenders & a team 2x that has had their number because of how their big man deptj matches up with stretching Jonas & zoning Zion with a lengthy shot blocker with NO's missing 3 of their top 3, 3pt shooters to bust their zone. It should be noted during this 8 game span the reason the starters with Daniels is +28 is because they are winning their minutes in these losses. So if you can follow it's the bench that needs the 3pt shooting boost where teams benches have successfully zoned Zion. Zeller & Daniels in this rotation makes zero sense outside of a lack of availability or a pension for defense.

Now from my POV with Daniels starting & none of the floor spacers even available for successful bench minutes. If NO's had Murphy alone more less both with CJ, in some of these matches, they beat the Wolves, they beat Utah both times & the Bulls. So if Daniels play can allow NO's to run CJ off the bench as a luxury, they could also turn his contract into a cheaper alternative & a solution at centre while shedding the necessary salary for the upcoming extensions.

CJ is a luxury asset. All NO's really needed during this 9 game stretch to go 9-0 without him, is 3pt shooting off the bench, which they had none outside the rookie Hawkins. IMO Having Murphy available alone in this stretch would have shown NO's how little they needed CJ to potentially go 9-0. All NO's have to do is look at the bench minutes lost during these 9 games without ANY of their spacing available outside of a rookie, not just CJ. You will come to the same conclusion. Not that CJ is not needed at all or can't be effective but that's what IMO he is, a luxury asset & it's for this reason I would not risk trading Zion or BI over keeping him.

If NO's entertain trading CJ - (A defensive rim runner/PG, maybe a pick depending on value)

What I would do if NO's were to entertain trading CJ - I'm not sure of the pick value but this would be my frame work of the trade.

NO's trade - (CJ, pick) for (Jonathan Isaac, Tyus Jonas)
Magic trade - (Isaac, Fultz) for (CJ, pick?)
Washington trade - (Jones) for (Fultz, pick?)


Jonas - Isaac - Nance - Zeller = injury depth insurance
Zion - Murphy
Bi - Naji
Herb - Hawkins
Daniels - Jones - Jose

Jones is a starter level PG who's one of the best in the league at taking care of the ball, which NO's as a team has struggled with. Isaac has 1-5 defensive switch ability at 6'11 & can hit the occasional 3. Jones is expiring & Isaac is expiring in 25 which gives NO's some contract/cap flexibility in breaking down CJ's max to 2 starting caliber backups. NO's get both a quality replacement guard who can start/finish games & an upgrade at centre.

Spacing -
Jones is shooting 35% on the yr & is a career 35% shooter. You're getting consistency & ball security with him. CJ is shooting 34.8% on the yr but is a career 39% shooter, law of averages. What you're giving up in shooting & shot creation with CJ, doesn't out weight the gain of defensive big man with 1-5 switch ability, a consistent steady PG who's one of the best in ball security & the cap flexibility that comes with it to retain the teams quality depth & the younger BI.

[Whole Truth]

Portland is heading for a top 5 pick. They would have interest in BI with their guard rotation - If for whatever reason BI is not the answer here in NO's. This is the trade I have lined up for (Alex Sarr). Maybe my draft projections are off as there will be a lot of time for change.

NO's trade - (BI) for (Portland's top 5 pick (Alex Sarr), expiring value, pick/s>)

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I guess I'm going to have to just accept starting games down 15.

Nice to have Murphy back, 13pts 5-8 shooting. The one man zone buster. Bench finally wining their minutes. Now if there was something Pels can do start games better.

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Refs seeing what Pels are doing defensively & Kings getting to the line frequently.

Refs not seeing what Kings are doing defensively & NO's can't buy FT's

but if they did Kings wouldn't be able to keep the game close.