NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24

[Doctor MJ]

Net On/Off Leaders Per 100 Possessions, 2023-2024, Among MVP Candidates

Jokic: +21.1
SGA: +12.5
Embiid: +3.7
Doncic: +0.3
Tatum: +4.7
Giannis: +2.3
Durant: +8.4
Haliburton: +7.7
Curry: -6.3
Booker: +12.0

So yeah, it's this type of data where Doncic has looked remarkably pedestrian his entire career - to the point where "noise" really doesn't seem like a realistic explanation any more.

In general I always try to emphasize that Doncic remains in my eyes remains a serious threat to prove effectively unstoppable in the playoffs in any series with the other 29 NBA teams, and that if he ends up getting there and staying there for years, his regular season +/- will not be a damning thing at all, but rather a fascinating quirk seemingly unlike anything we've ever seen before.

It would likely lead to a general conclusion that Doncic possessed a resilience to even the best defenses possible that allowed his team to outscore opponents as needed when the stakes are high.

But just taking the regular season numbers, it's illustrating a massive misalignment between production (box score) data and impact (plus minus) data. The type of fallacy is very much general phenomenon - the game has long been narrated as if box score stats are manufactured out of nothing by a player's force of will, but in actuality they are drastically shaped by the scheme the team uses, and so if you let one man dominate the ball, he's going to get big numbers while teammates often get small numbers, implying he's "doing it by himself", when in actuality you can run the team to similar regular seasons success without having a helio.

But I'll just go ahead and say:

I won't be taking Doncic as a serious MVP candidate unless either a) the +/- data starts looking better or b) the Mavs have such an outlier record I consider (a) to be moot. I don't think Doncic should be considered an MVP candidate simply for putting up big production numbers on non-elite teams, because to me, that's just not contributing extreme value.

But to be clear:

I'm more focused on how I evaluate players after the Finals, which leads to what I vote for in the PC board POY votes, and I won't hesitate to put Doncic at #1 if he beats all comers through the playoff gauntlet.

[bigboi]

Jokic ain’t winning Jack lmao. Nugs not even a shoe in to come out the west. The way they drop games with Jokic playing well is a tell tale sign

[CobraCommander]

Can you please show all the data that proves every year his impact is low, and explain why Luka is the most overrated player in the league?

Thanks, man.

He ain’t over rated but he clearly isn’t one the top 2 or 3 guys right now - He is doing crazy Luka things but people used to it now- he has to win like Giannis and Jokic or be compared to Embiid- yuckkkk


Btw I got KD at 3rd right now behind Jokic and Giannis.

KD shooting % are insane and sun’s winning

Durant is certainly in the mvp discussion and yes his efficiency has been incredible this season. He has also had to keep the team afloat without Beal and Booker missing 7 games, but Luka imo should be ranked higher because his numbers are better, he does more for the Mavs, and their team records are close.

Which numbers are better lol

Luka avg half a point more shooting a full 2 more shots and a full 2 more 3s a game. KDs efficiency this year is crazy and look at his defense...I’m sorry Luka not touching KD this year. I don’t expect KD to keep this up tho...that bald spot showing how old he is. KD playing a ton of minutes and he just too damn old to keep this up. Luka should catch him...but thus far...Luka been great KD been other worldly efficient from 2- 3 and the line...Luka ain’t been that even tho the 3 looking good...and if you take out that crazy 9 TO game Luka TO down too...I like Lukas chances but so far he ain’t touching KD

[CobraCommander]

Net On/Off Leaders Per 100 Possessions, 2023-2024, Among MVP Candidates

Jokic: +21.1
SGA: +12.5
Embiid: +3.7
Doncic: +0.3
Tatum: +4.7
Giannis: +2.3
Durant: +8.4
Haliburton: +7.7
Curry: -6.3
Booker: +12.0

So yeah, it's this type of data where Doncic has looked remarkably pedestrian his entire career - to the point where "noise" really doesn't seem like a realistic explanation any more.

In general I always try to emphasize that Doncic remains in my eyes remains a serious threat to prove effectively unstoppable in the playoffs in any series with the other 29 NBA teams, and that if he ends up getting there and staying there for years, his regular season +/- will not be a damning thing at all, but rather a fascinating quirk seemingly unlike anything we've ever seen before.

It would likely lead to a general conclusion that Doncic possessed a resilience to even the best defenses possible that allowed his team to outscore opponents as needed when the stakes are high.

But just taking the regular season numbers, it's illustrating a massive misalignment between production (box score) data and impact (plus minus) data. The type of fallacy is very much general phenomenon - the game has long been narrated as if box score stats are manufactured out of nothing by a player's force of will, but in actuality they are drastically shaped by the scheme the team uses, and so if you let one man dominate the ball, he's going to get big numbers while teammates often get small numbers, implying he's "doing it by himself", when in actuality you can run the team to similar regular seasons success without having a helio.

But I'll just go ahead and say:

I won't be taking Doncic as a serious MVP candidate unless either a) the +/- data starts looking better or b) the Mavs have such an outlier record I consider (a) to be moot. I don't think Doncic should be considered an MVP candidate simply for putting up big production numbers on non-elite teams, because to me, that's just not contributing extreme value.

But to be clear:

I'm more focused on how I evaluate players after the Finals, which leads to what I vote for in the PC board POY votes, and I won't hesitate to put Doncic at #1 if he beats all comers through the playoff gauntlet.

Uhhhh what he said.


I would still take Luka and Kyrie to win a 7 game series against anyone IF they can get there, they are a threat. If either gets hot they can win a game or a series - if both hot it’s pretty much a wrap


Look at Book and and SGA doing that thing

[ty 4191]

Uhhhh what he said.

I don't think someone can fluke their way to a net neutral on/off per 100 over 6 seasons/348 games. I agree with Doctor MJ, in that respect, and he knows 100x more about the NBA, and basketball stats, than I do.

That said:

Some superstars (Net) On/Off Per 100 possessions since 2018-2019:

Luka: +1.1

Jokic: +11.3
Embiid: +8.9
Giannis: +9.0
Curry: +9.9
Butler: +5.8
Tatum: +8.0
Harden: +4.1
LeBron: +8.6
Gobert: +8.0

"Which one of these things is not like the other?" -Sesame Street

Doncic scores a ton, he's super exciting to watch, he's a great passer, BUT........is he extremely valuable and impactful to wins and losses?

[MavsDirk41]

He ain’t over rated but he clearly isn’t one the top 2 or 3 guys right now - He is doing crazy Luka things but people used to it now- he has to win like Giannis and Jokic or be compared to Embiid- yuckkkk


Btw I got KD at 3rd right now behind Jokic and Giannis.

KD shooting % are insane and sun’s winning

Durant is certainly in the mvp discussion and yes his efficiency has been incredible this season. He has also had to keep the team afloat without Beal and Booker missing 7 games, but Luka imo should be ranked higher because his numbers are better, he does more for the Mavs, and their team records are close.

Which numbers are better lol

Luka avg half a point more shooting a full 2 more shots and a full 2 more 3s a game. KDs efficiency this year is crazy and look at his defense...I’m sorry Luka not touching KD this year. I don’t expect KD to keep this up tho...that bald spot showing how old he is. KD playing a ton of minutes and he just too damn old to keep this up. Luka should catch him...but thus far...Luka been great KD been other worldly efficient from 2- 3 and the line...Luka ain’t been that even tho the 3 looking good...and if you take out that crazy 9 TO game Luka TO down too...I like Lukas chances but so far he ain’t touching KD

Luka 31/8/8 on 49/39/76 shooting
Durant 31/6/6 on 51/49/90 shooting
Both average about 4 TOs a game

Yea you are right, Durants efficiency is crazy. He is automatic at the line and always shoots about 50% from the 3. He will always be a better 3 point shooter. He has such a smooth stroke. Durant is a goat level offensive player. Luka gives you more boards and is a better playmaker but yea Durant is better defensively too. Its close.

[MavsDirk41]

He ain’t over rated but he clearly isn’t one the top 2 or 3 guys right now - He is doing crazy Luka things but people used to it now- he has to win like Giannis and Jokic or be compared to Embiid- yuckkkk


Btw I got KD at 3rd right now behind Jokic and Giannis.

KD shooting % are insane and sun’s winning

Durant is certainly in the mvp discussion and yes his efficiency has been incredible this season. He has also had to keep the team afloat without Beal and Booker missing 7 games, but Luka imo should be ranked higher because his numbers are better, he does more for the Mavs, and their team records are close.

Which numbers are better lol

Luka avg half a point more shooting a full 2 more shots and a full 2 more 3s a game. KDs efficiency this year is crazy and look at his defense...I’m sorry Luka not touching KD this year. I don’t expect KD to keep this up tho...that bald spot showing how old he is. KD playing a ton of minutes and he just too damn old to keep this up. Luka should catch him...but thus far...Luka been great KD been other worldly efficient from 2- 3 and the line...Luka ain’t been that even tho the 3 looking good...and if you take out that crazy 9 TO game Luka TO down too...I like Lukas chances but so far he ain’t touching KD

My bad, i meant Durant always shoots about 50% from the field, not from 3

[baksuzz]

Uhhhh what he said.

I don't think someone can fluke their way to a net neutral on/off per 100 over 6 seasons/348 games. I agree with Doctor MJ, in that respect, and he knows 100x more about the NBA, and basketball stats, than I do.

That said:

Some superstars (Net) On/Off Per 100 possessions since 2018-2019:

Luka: +1.1

Jokic: +11.3
Embiid: +8.9
Giannis: +9.0
Curry: +9.9
Butler: +5.8
Tatum: +8.0
Harden: +4.1
LeBron: +8.6
Gobert: +8.0

"Which one of these things is not like the other?" -Sesame Street

Doncic scores a ton, he's super exciting to watch, he's a great passer, BUT........is he extremely valuable and impactful to wins and losses?

i also think Doncic is overrated, but to be fair he had the worst teammates out of all the guys above. by far

[Doctor MJ]

Uhhhh what he said.

I don't think someone can fluke their way to a net neutral on/off per 100 over 6 seasons/348 games. I agree with Doctor MJ, in that respect, and he knows 100x more about the NBA, and basketball stats, than I do.

That said:

Some superstars (Net) On/Off Per 100 possessions since 2018-2019:

Luka: +1.1

Jokic: +11.3
Embiid: +8.9
Giannis: +9.0
Curry: +9.9
Butler: +5.8
Tatum: +8.0
Harden: +4.1
LeBron: +8.6
Gobert: +8.0

"Which one of these things is not like the other?" -Sesame Street

Doncic scores a ton, he's super exciting to watch, he's a great passer, BUT........is he extremely valuable and impactful to wins and losses?

i also think Doncic is overrated, but to be fair he had the worst teammates out of all the guys above. by far

To be clear: That right there is On/Off data. If you are amazing and you have terrible teammates, you should have a massive number here. So the data is essentially disproving the factor you're bringing up in response to it.

The question with Doncic has remained for many years now:

Why is it his team can do almost as well without him as they can with him? You cannot blame teammates for not being good enough as the reason why they do unexpectedly well without you.

[AleksandarN]

Jokic ain’t winning Jack lmao. Nugs not even a shoe in to come out the west. The way they drop games with Jokic playing well is a tell tale sign

Not like he isn’t the best player in the world and dominated the playoffs with a healthy team last postseason. Also context matters. I know you want to troll and get a reaction but there is an intelligent way to go about it. This unfortunately falls short. Your reply just illustrates your lack insight and knowledge. Please do better next time when you decide to troll for a reaction. Let’s have an intelligent discourse instead of this. Am I asking too much of you? If I am truly sorry.

[ty 4191]

The question with Doncic has remained for many years now:

Why is it his team can do almost as well without him as they can with him? You cannot blame teammates for not being good enough as the reason why they do unexpectedly well without you.

Why IS his team almost as good without him than versus with him? (I'm actually asking you; this is non rhetorical).

All stats include the playoffs, and, complete careers. Just a few examples:

--Mavs are 29-38 all time (.433) without Doncic. They are .543 with him playing.

--The Nuggets are 17-25 all time (.405) without Jokic. They are .596 with him playing.

--The Sixers are 77-95 (.448) without Embiid, career. They are .637 with him playing.

--Warriors are 90-147 (.380) without Curry. They are .652 with him playing.

[Exp0sed]

Jokic ain’t winning Jack lmao. Nugs not even a shoe in to come out the west. The way they drop games with Jokic playing well is a tell tale sign

do ppl actually think this, that finishing 3rd or whatever would stop voters from voting for the Joker? huh..

Jokic was phenomenal vs. the Kings. It was a back to back (and te Nuggets eeked out a tough one in PHX the night before), they also played 9 games since November 20th, that's like 9 games in two weeks, most of which without Murray and AG and most of those were away from Denver, really brutal stretch even at full strength and they were missing their #2 and AG whose honestly their 3rd most important player

Jokic played in all but one of these iirc

If it were Joe L you can bet he'd be sitting out. instead Jokic actually showed up and played a monster game
they were up pretty big in the 1st when he went to the bench and instantly fell behind in just a few mins (as always)

he fueled a comback but alas those mins of rest in the 2nd half hurt them as well and the Kings at home is a tough game for anyone let alone on a b2b, he was +11 in a 6 points loss. Jokic and KCP were the only Nuggets with positive +- among starters or bench players

they are def not a shoe-in to win the West and personally I think they'd end up being 2nd or even 3rd
regardless what Jokic is doing is just bonkers, and after the fiasco of last season, if he'll keep this up he'll win it for sure (and rightfully so) even if they'd be 2nd, 3rd or whatever

I honestly don't think i'd take any floor general in history over this version of peak Jokic and that would have been unthinkable about any Center until Jokic came around

[Exp0sed]

Has the “most points, rebounds and assists” ever been mentioned in the regular season before? I know they’ve all played a different amount of games, but I can’t recall this being brought up for any player in the past.

not that I can recall (ever) but as you know, Jokic became the first player in history to do it for an entire playoff run, so I guess that put this particular tidbit on the map?

[Exp0sed]

Read on Twitter

fwiw, he def had one turnover in the Kings game. Idk why he wasn't credited with it but he had one haha

[Exp0sed]

not a peep here from the Embiid stans about Joel "Duck" Embiid, ducking another game?

Minny away and then Boston away a few days ago, gotta protect those stats and conserve what little stamina he has, I guess
now comes the toughest part of the schedule (:P), Philly is playing the Wizards twice and the Pistons Twice in their next 5 games with one Hawks game at home sandwiched in the middle

and then Charlotte and the Bulls lmfao

so...he finna be healthy soon enough, dropping monster stat lines on tanking hapless winless teams

when the going gets tough he's nowhere to be found
it was shameful before but now that he's actually the reigning MVP (fake as it may be) - it's a real disgrace imo.

[jokeboy86]

Jokic ain’t winning Jack lmao. Nugs not even a shoe in to come out the west. The way they drop games with Jokic playing well is a tell tale sign

do ppl actually think this, that finishing 3rd or whatever would stop voters from voting for the Joker? huh..

It shouldn't but the bottom line is this, Jokic isn't Lebron, Curry, Durant or even Giannis in terms of image/marketability and most importantly money to the national talking heads or TV partners of the NBA. Him being the best player in the league on a winning team in a small market does nothing for the modern NBA from a money making standpoint. Jokic winning his 3rd MVP is boring for them. Now why does this matter? Because the NBA and the media that covers it more than any other sports league would prefer their league's best player be someone either in a large market or marketable/exciting(or both if possible). A lot of times that thinking and also taking head discussion points also influences the voters. No one can tell me that if Lebron/KD/Curry were putting up the stats that Jokic were putting up that heads wouldn't be screaming for them to be MVP as long as their teams were playoff teams in the standings.

[Exp0sed]

Jokic ain’t winning Jack lmao. Nugs not even a shoe in to come out the west. The way they drop games with Jokic playing well is a tell tale sign

do ppl actually think this, that finishing 3rd or whatever would stop voters from voting for the Joker? huh..

It shouldn't but the bottom line is this, Jokic isn't Lebron, Curry, Durant or even Giannis in terms of image/marketability and most importantly money to the national talking heads or TV partners of the NBA. Him being the best player in the league on a winning team in a small market does nothing for the modern NBA from a money making standpoint. Jokic winning his 3rd MVP is boring for them. Now why does this matter? Because the NBA and the media that covers it more than any other sports league would prefer their league's best player be someone either in a large market or marketable/exciting(or both if possible). A lot of times that thinking and also taking head discussion points also influences the voters. No one can tell me that if Lebron/KD/Curry were putting up the stats that Jokic were putting up that heads wouldn't be screaming for them to be MVP as long as their teams were playoff teams in the standings.

tbh, I don't think that it's about Jokic "marketability" at all.
Yes, he doesn't have social media and he's foreign with a language barrier but the lack of talk from the "talking heads" has nothing to do with that and alot to do with him being in Denver. if he's be putting this up for the Lakers, that's all they'd be talking about

I can accept that perhaps the relative lack of buzz could influence a few voters but certainly not most of them.
the season's still young obviously but if he keeps this up he's gonna win his 3rd MVP (and rightfully so)

[bigboi]

Jokic ain’t winning Jack lmao. Nugs not even a shoe in to come out the west. The way they drop games with Jokic playing well is a tell tale sign

do ppl actually think this, that finishing 3rd or whatever would stop voters from voting for the Joker? huh..

Jokic was phenomenal vs. the Kings. It was a back to back (and te Nuggets eeked out a tough one in PHX the night before), they also played 9 games since November 20th, that's like 9 games in two weeks, most of which without Murray and AG and most of those were away from Denver, really brutal stretch even at full strength and they were missing their #2 and AG whose honestly their 3rd most important player

Jokic played in all but one of these iirc

If it were Joe L you can bet he'd be sitting out. instead Jokic actually showed up and played a monster game
they were up pretty big in the 1st when he went to the bench and instantly fell behind in just a few mins (as always)

he fueled a comback but alas those mins of rest in the 2nd half hurt them as well and the Kings at home is a tough game for anyone let alone on a b2b, he was +11 in a 6 points loss. Jokic and KCP were the only Nuggets with positive +- among starters or bench players

they are def not a shoe-in to win the West and personally I think they'd end up being 2nd or even 3rd
regardless what Jokic is doing is just bonkers, and after the fiasco of last season, if he'll keep this up he'll win it for sure (and rightfully so) even if they'd be 2nd, 3rd or whatever

I honestly don't think i'd take any floor general in history over this version of peak Jokic and that would have been unthinkable about any Center until Jokic came around

Again, the nuggets are easily dropping games. They can easily and I think they will end up in the bottom half of the western conference for standings when it’s all said and done.

So you wouldn’t take Magic Johnson who has won multiple finals MVPs, multiple rings over Jokic who has won 1? You’re just flat out silly then.

Again, Giannis will be mvp when it’s all said and done.

[bigboi]

Jokic ain’t winning Jack lmao. Nugs not even a shoe in to come out the west. The way they drop games with Jokic playing well is a tell tale sign

Not like he isn’t the best player in the world and dominated the playoffs with a healthy team last postseason. Also context matters. I know you want to troll and get a reaction but there is an intelligent way to go about it. This unfortunately falls short. Your reply just illustrates your lack insight and knowledge. Please do better next time when you decide to troll for a reaction. Let’s have an intelligent discourse instead of this. Am I asking too much of you? If I am truly sorry.

Buddy, miss me with your garbage. Jokic has dominated for 1 season and has NEVER lead a team to 60+ wins. Do I think he’s the best player? Possibly. Do I think he’s by far and away the best player? Not a chance. Does being the best player mean that you’re MVP? Lmao no. Tons of players put up gaudy stats, it doesn’t matter lmao. We play to win the game. If Giannis or Embiid end up with a better record while Jokic is dropping games then they will win MVP simple as that. By mid season, Bucks’ chemistry will be sorted and I predict Giannis will run away with the MVP.

[jokeboy86]

do ppl actually think this, that finishing 3rd or whatever would stop voters from voting for the Joker? huh..

It shouldn't but the bottom line is this, Jokic isn't Lebron, Curry, Durant or even Giannis in terms of image/marketability and most importantly money to the national talking heads or TV partners of the NBA. Him being the best player in the league on a winning team in a small market does nothing for the modern NBA from a money making standpoint. Jokic winning his 3rd MVP is boring for them. Now why does this matter? Because the NBA and the media that covers it more than any other sports league would prefer their league's best player be someone either in a large market or marketable/exciting(or both if possible). A lot of times that thinking and also taking head discussion points also influences the voters. No one can tell me that if Lebron/KD/Curry were putting up the stats that Jokic were putting up that heads wouldn't be screaming for them to be MVP as long as their teams were playoff teams in the standings.

tbh, I don't think that it's about Jokic "marketability" at all.
Yes, he doesn't have social media and he's foreign with a language barrier but the lack of talk from the "talking heads" has nothing to do with that and alot to do with him being in Denver. if he's be putting this up for the Lakers, that's all they'd be talking about

I can accept that perhaps the relative lack of buzz could influence a few voters but certainly not most of them.
the season's still young obviously but if he keeps this up he's gonna win his 3rd MVP (and rightfully so)

Carmelo got attention in Denver(and basically every team he's on) even when his teams were just 1st rd and out every year. Now to be fair to Melo he did have a lot hype(justifably so) coming off a national title and being hyped with Lebron. But the small market is a obviously a key factor. They were forced to talk about Duncan because he won titles and rings but also because he was the Lakers main rival in the 00s. What would help Jokic is a couple more playoff series against the Lakers. If you routinely beat the Lakers, Cowboys, or Yankees you'll get acknowledged in this country.