Trade Talk (Part 14): 2023-24 Edition

[winforlose]

One thing about this conversation puzzles me. I thought the media rights deal is going to significantly raise the cap. This in turn raises the tax and the aprons. So isn’t it just one expensive year with tax?

In 2016, a new tv deal was about to spike the salary cap. The league suggested cap smoothing, so that the cap would only go up a smaller amount each year for the next few years, and additional money would be put in escrow. The Players Union rejected it. The results were players that happened to be eligible for new contracts that year got huge deals since every team had cap space. The most memorable event was the 73-9 Warriors suddenly had the cap space to add Kevin Durant.

This time around, the Players Union agreed to cap smoothing, and regardless of how profitable the new tv deal is, the cap will only go up 10%. It will continue to go up 10% for the next few years (even if that year is below), until the new influx of money balances back out. This tells us what the maximum salary cap will be, and more importantly to us, where the second apron will settle.

One more question. Is the repeater tax still a thing?

[shrink]

One thing about this conversation puzzles me. I thought the media rights deal is going to significantly raise the cap. This in turn raises the tax and the aprons. So isn’t it just one expensive year with tax?

In 2016, a new tv deal was about to spike the salary cap. The league suggested cap smoothing, so that the cap would only go up a smaller amount each year for the next few years, and additional money would be put in escrow. The Players Union rejected it. The results were players that happened to be eligible for new contracts that year got huge deals since every team had cap space. The most memorable event was the 73-9 Warriors suddenly had the cap space to add Kevin Durant.

This time around, the Players Union agreed to cap smoothing, and regardless of how profitable the new tv deal is, the cap will only go up 10%. It will continue to go up 10% for the next few years (even if that year is below), until the new influx of money balances back out. This tells us what the maximum salary cap will be, and more importantly to us, where the second apron will settle.

One more question. Is the repeater tax still a thing?

Yes, the repeater tax is still there, but the new CBA has changed some of its rules on luxury taxes. The league decided to lessen the penalties for teams that just barely go over the lux, but make it far more painful to go way over it. They created the second apron, where there are not only extreme lux taxes, but difficulties to tie up GM’s, like removing access to the MLE, more difficult trade restrictions, and even penalties applied to future picks. Unfortunately, the Wolves will be struggling to stay under the second apron when the extensions kick in next year for Towns, Jaden, and Ant (who’s max could go up even further if he makes All NBA).

But yes, the new CBA still contains the repeater tax, and the effect on us is that Conley won’t go one dollar over the luxury threshold THIS year, and start the repeater clock ticking a year early.

[winforlose]

In 2016, a new tv deal was about to spike the salary cap. The league suggested cap smoothing, so that the cap would only go up a smaller amount each year for the next few years, and additional money would be put in escrow. The Players Union rejected it. The results were players that happened to be eligible for new contracts that year got huge deals since every team had cap space. The most memorable event was the 73-9 Warriors suddenly had the cap space to add Kevin Durant.

This time around, the Players Union agreed to cap smoothing, and regardless of how profitable the new tv deal is, the cap will only go up 10%. It will continue to go up 10% for the next few years (even if that year is below), until the new influx of money balances back out. This tells us what the maximum salary cap will be, and more importantly to us, where the second apron will settle.

One more question. Is the repeater tax still a thing?

Yes, the repeater tax is still there, but the new CBA has changed some of its rules on luxury taxes. The league decided to lessen the penalties for teams that just barely go over the lux, but make it far more painful to go way over it. They created the second apron, where there are not only extreme lux taxes, but difficulties to tie up GM’s, like removing access to the MLE, more difficult trade restrictions, and even penalties applied to future picks. Unfortunately, the Wolves will be struggling to stay under the second apron when the extensions kick in next year for Towns, Jaden, and Ant (who’s max could go up even further if he makes All NBA).

But yes, the new CBA still contains the repeater tax, and the effect on us is that Conley won’t go one dollar over the luxury threshold THIS year, and start the repeater clock ticking a year early.

Makes sense. I hadn’t heard about draft pick penalties. I need to read more about this.

[Danimals]

I’d like to see a trade like Shake and Moore, maybe a 2nd for a vet guard. Can Nix be added for more salary? If so I like Morris, Burks, or Wright. Vets who will play there role with no commitment past this year.

No, Nix couldn’t be included for extra salary. Unfortunately if Minnesota is doing a two for one type trade they would basically have to match the salary or receive less. They’re so close to the lux tax and more or less only have a vet min’s worth of wiggle room. In the event of a two for one they’d need to sign someone to a standard contract to get to the league roster minimum and that’d take up the wiggle room of a vet min.


Troy Brown and Shake made more sense as a set of matching salary but TBJ has been awesome and has potentially taken himself off of the potential market.

I was forgetting about minimum roster size and vet mins. So if we sent out Milton and Moore, what is the max amount we can take back? While also picking up a vet min and staying under the luxury tax this year? Do we have any contract incentives that we need to consider as well?

[shrink]

I’d like to see a trade like Shake and Moore, maybe a 2nd for a vet guard. Can Nix be added for more salary? If so I like Morris, Burks, or Wright. Vets who will play there role with no commitment past this year.

No, Nix couldn’t be included for extra salary. Unfortunately if Minnesota is doing a two for one type trade they would basically have to match the salary or receive less. They’re so close to the lux tax and more or less only have a vet min’s worth of wiggle room. In the event of a two for one they’d need to sign someone to a standard contract to get to the league roster minimum and that’d take up the wiggle room of a vet min.


Troy Brown and Shake made more sense as a set of matching salary but TBJ has been awesome and has potentially taken himself off of the potential market.

I was forgetting about minimum roster size and vet mins. So if we sent out Milton and Moore, what is the max amount we can take back? While also picking up a vet min and staying under the luxury tax this year? Do we have any contract incentives that we need to consider as well?

Here’s the broad terms. Mike Conley has an unlikely bonus that he only gets if the Wolves reach the NBA Finals, and suddenly that doesn’t seem impossible. The amount of that bonus would take us almost right up to the lux threshold, which we won’t cross this year. So the way I see it, if we trade anyone, we can’t take back more money.

And since Wendell Moore makes less than the vet min, if we pair him in a two for one with Milton, we’d need to trade for someone who makes less than Milton, to fill the other spot with a vet min guy to get back up to our 14 man roster minimum.

[Mamba4Goat]

No, Nix couldn’t be included for extra salary. Unfortunately if Minnesota is doing a two for one type trade they would basically have to match the salary or receive less. They’re so close to the lux tax and more or less only have a vet min’s worth of wiggle room. In the event of a two for one they’d need to sign someone to a standard contract to get to the league roster minimum and that’d take up the wiggle room of a vet min.


Troy Brown and Shake made more sense as a set of matching salary but TBJ has been awesome and has potentially taken himself off of the potential market.

I was forgetting about minimum roster size and vet mins. So if we sent out Milton and Moore, what is the max amount we can take back? While also picking up a vet min and staying under the luxury tax this year? Do we have any contract incentives that we need to consider as well?

Here’s the broad terms. Mike Conley has an unlikely bonus that he only gets if the Wolves reach the NBA Finals, and suddenly that doesn’t seem impossible. The amount of that bonus would take us almost right up to the lux threshold, which we won’t cross this year. So the way I see it, if we trade anyone, we can’t take back more money.

And since Wendell Moore makes less than the vet min, if we pair him in a two for one with Milton, we’d need to trade for someone who makes less than Milton, to fill the other spot with a vet min guy to get back up to our 14 man roster minimum.

Forgot about Conley’s incentive!

[shrink]

Forgot about Conley’s incentive!

Lol! I bet Luka Garza thinks about it every day. That’s a big reason he’s still on a two-way.

[winforlose]

Forgot about Conley’s incentive!

Lol! I bet Luka Garza thinks about it every day. That’s a big reason he’s still on a two-way.

We have 862,588 to play with. We could convert him at the end of the season (with pro-rated salary) if we want him playoff eligible. That said I am not sure we want another big on the playoff roster. If healthy we have 3 centers with Kyle available as emergency small ball center. We would probably want a PG or PF depending on how Miller and JMAC look during the year.

[Danimals]

So it needs to be an equal trade salary wise no matter what we do. It will be very interesting to see how it plays out. I believe we need another point guard.

[twolves31]

No, Nix couldn’t be included for extra salary. Unfortunately if Minnesota is doing a two for one type trade they would basically have to match the salary or receive less. They’re so close to the lux tax and more or less only have a vet min’s worth of wiggle room. In the event of a two for one they’d need to sign someone to a standard contract to get to the league roster minimum and that’d take up the wiggle room of a vet min.


Troy Brown and Shake made more sense as a set of matching salary but TBJ has been awesome and has potentially taken himself off of the potential market.

I was forgetting about minimum roster size and vet mins. So if we sent out Milton and Moore, what is the max amount we can take back? While also picking up a vet min and staying under the luxury tax this year? Do we have any contract incentives that we need to consider as well?

Here’s the broad terms. Mike Conley has an unlikely bonus that he only gets if the Wolves reach the NBA Finals, and suddenly that doesn’t seem impossible. The amount of that bonus would take us almost right up to the lux threshold, which we won’t cross this year. So the way I see it, if we trade anyone, we can’t take back more money.

And since Wendell Moore makes less than the vet min, if we pair him in a two for one with Milton, we’d need to trade for someone who makes less than Milton, to fill the other spot with a vet min guy to get back up to our 14 man roster minimum.

I don't think we should worry about Conley's unlikely bonus, if the wolves make the NBA Finals I'm sure the owners will say hey that was worth it to get the Wolves to the Final for the first time ever. If his bonus would bump us into the 2nd tax apron I could see more worry, but the first tax level is what it is if you make the finals.

[Mamba4Goat]

I was forgetting about minimum roster size and vet mins. So if we sent out Milton and Moore, what is the max amount we can take back? While also picking up a vet min and staying under the luxury tax this year? Do we have any contract incentives that we need to consider as well?

Here’s the broad terms. Mike Conley has an unlikely bonus that he only gets if the Wolves reach the NBA Finals, and suddenly that doesn’t seem impossible. The amount of that bonus would take us almost right up to the lux threshold, which we won’t cross this year. So the way I see it, if we trade anyone, we can’t take back more money.

And since Wendell Moore makes less than the vet min, if we pair him in a two for one with Milton, we’d need to trade for someone who makes less than Milton, to fill the other spot with a vet min guy to get back up to our 14 man roster minimum.

I don't think we should worry about Conley's unlikely bonus, if the wolves make the NBA Finals I'm sure the owners will say hey that was worth it to get the Wolves to the Final for the first time ever. If his bonus would bump us into the 2nd tax apron I could see more worry, but the first tax level is what it is if you make the finals.

Normally I’d agree but they have to worry about the repeater tax. They’re likely planning on be a tax team for a bit and an extra year outside of the repeater tax would be very important.

[winforlose]

Here’s the broad terms. Mike Conley has an unlikely bonus that he only gets if the Wolves reach the NBA Finals, and suddenly that doesn’t seem impossible. The amount of that bonus would take us almost right up to the lux threshold, which we won’t cross this year. So the way I see it, if we trade anyone, we can’t take back more money.

And since Wendell Moore makes less than the vet min, if we pair him in a two for one with Milton, we’d need to trade for someone who makes less than Milton, to fill the other spot with a vet min guy to get back up to our 14 man roster minimum.

I don't think we should worry about Conley's unlikely bonus, if the wolves make the NBA Finals I'm sure the owners will say hey that was worth it to get the Wolves to the Final for the first time ever. If his bonus would bump us into the 2nd tax apron I could see more worry, but the first tax level is what it is if you make the finals.

Normally I’d agree but they have to worry about the repeater tax. They’re likely planning on be a tax team for a bit and an extra year outside of the repeater tax would be very important.

This, plus there is a real question about how deep the pockets of the new owners are. GSW is paying almost 400 million after tax this year. I am not sure that the new owners could afford to spend that much In consecutive years.

[Domejandro]

Minnesota absolutely will not risk going into the Luxury-Tax this year, that would nuke the team's ability to dip into the Luxury-Tax in future years.

They have just over $800k to play with, it is what it is.

[minimus]

Minnesota absolutely will not risk going into the Luxury-Tax this year, that would nuke the team's ability to dip into the Luxury-Tax in future years.

They have just over $800k to play with, it is what it is.

Let say DET waives Monte Morris, does signing him as waived player puts us over luxury line?

[shrink]

Minnesota absolutely will not risk going into the Luxury-Tax this year, that would nuke the team's ability to dip into the Luxury-Tax in future years.

They have just over $800k to play with, it is what it is.

Let say DET waives Monte Morris, does signing him as waived player puts us over luxury line?

Just to be clear on the language, if we signed him as a waived player, we’d inherit his $9.8 mil contract.

If no team picked him up and he cleared waivers, then he is a free agent and can sign for whoever makes the best offer. For us, that would be the DLo exception ($3.7), since the CBA now allows TPE’s to be used to sign Free Agents. The best case scenario though is that he’d sign for the vet min. Since we are about 25% through the season, that would roughly cost about $1.5 mil.

This scenario would be a bargain for Morris, but it isn’t unrealistic. He may be offered more elsewhere, but at age 28, he is likely less concerned with this contract as he is for his next contract. Minnesota gives him the chance to show he’s healthy, a contender where he will get plenty of minutes and get a public spotlight in the playoffs, and the chance to audition for a team that has a need for him next year. You could see Connelly sign him, then trade away a player like Wendell Moore Jr to a team with cap space.

[minimus]

Read on Twitter

IND could use a PF. MIN needs backup PG. Would you trade Moore, Miller, Milton, 2nd round pick for Nembhard and Nwora?

Gobert/Town + Garza
Anderson/Reid/Minott
McDaniels/Brown + Nwora
Edwards/NAW/Nembhard
Conley/Nembhard/McLauglin + Nix

[shrink]

Nembhard is much more valuable that that.

[winforlose]

Minnesota absolutely will not risk going into the Luxury-Tax this year, that would nuke the team's ability to dip into the Luxury-Tax in future years.

They have just over $800k to play with, it is what it is.

Let say DET waives Monte Morris, does signing him as waived player puts us over luxury line?

Just to be clear on the language, if we signed him as a waived player, we’d inherit his $9.8 mil contract.

If no team picked him up and he cleared waivers, then he is a free agent and can sign for whoever makes the best offer. For us, that would be the DLo exception ($3.7), since the CBA now allows TPE’s to be used to sign Free Agents. The best case scenario though is that he’d sign for the vet min. Since we are about 25% through the season, that would roughly cost about $1.5 mil.

This scenario would be a bargain for Morris, but it isn’t unrealistic. He may be offered more elsewhere, but at age 28, he is likely less concerned with this contract as he is for his next contract. Minnesota gives him the chance to show he’s healthy, a contender where he will get plenty of minutes and get a public spotlight in the playoffs, and the chance to audition for a team that has a need for him next year. You could see Connelly sign him, then trade away a player like Wendell Moore Jr to a team with cap space.

Correct me if I am wrong, but if signed as free agent his bird rights disappear. This means next year if we are over the 2nd apron all we can offer him is the vet minimum?

[shrink]

Correct me if I am wrong, but if signed as free agent his bird rights disappear. This means next year if we are over the 2nd apron all we can offer him is the vet minimum?

Good point. Yes, he loses his Bird rights.

As to what we can offer him next summer, it would depend on where our payroll ended up (taxpayer MLE), and if we’d see other moves to create an exception for the summer. For example, you might see Connelly trade the expiring Kyle Anderson for a late pick and cap space, to create a $9.2 mil exception. Now, signing Morris and Conley would certainly put us over the second apron without some other type of maneuvers.

[winforlose]

Correct me if I am wrong, but if signed as free agent his bird rights disappear. This means next year if we are over the 2nd apron all we can offer him is the vet minimum?

Good point. Yes, he loses his Bird rights.

As to what we can offer him next summer, it would depend on where our payroll ended up (taxpayer MLE), and if we’d see other moves to create an exception for the summer. For example, you might see Connelly trade the expiring Kyle Anderson for a late pick and cap space, to create a $9.2 mil exception. Now, signing Morris and Conley would certainly put us over the second apron without some other type of maneuvers.

I am a little confused. Trading Kyle creates a trade exception. To my knowledge you cannot sign a free agent or resign a vet minimum with a trade exception, am I wrong? Assuming I am correct, we are somewhere around 156 mil guaranteed, (give or take 7 million with Ant making all NBA,) You are saying we use the MLE to sign Morris, but isn’t that retroactively taken away if we cross the 2nd apron? Or does it exist until after we do go over. So sign Morris first, then do everything else?