Siakam is shooting the 3 at a historically bad rate, and has a chance to be one of the worst in NBA history.

[OakleyDokely]

I think it's mostly a sample size issue and it will normalize over time, like GTJ's FT %.

The 3 really hasn't been a big component of his game since the 19/20 season. His made 3s and attempts have gone down dramatically since that season as his focus on interior scoring has intensified. .

I'm sorry what? He had a singular year that was an outlier of 6.1 attempts and 2.2 makes. Every year following has been :

4.4 - 1.3
3.2 - 1.1
4.0 - 1.3
4.1 - 0.8

Those 4 years account for more than 50% of his entire careers worth of minutes played. 7196 (1st 4 years) vs 7922 (last 3+ this year).

As for saying it will normalize, I mean sure, most likely, but that doesn't change where he will end up, bottom 5 in NBA history.

ya, that's what I said. Since 19/20, his attempts and makes have gone down dramatically and his scoring focus has been inside. The 3 ball hasn't been a big part of his game except for 1 season. Even with the "historically" bad 3pt shooting, his overall efficiency isn't far off from what he's posted over the last couple years.

[Scase]

I think it's mostly a sample size issue and it will normalize over time, like GTJ's FT %.

The 3 really hasn't been a big component of his game since the 19/20 season. His made 3s and attempts have gone down dramatically since that season as his focus on interior scoring has intensified. .

I'm sorry what? He had a singular year that was an outlier of 6.1 attempts and 2.2 makes. Every year following has been :

4.4 - 1.3
3.2 - 1.1
4.0 - 1.3
4.1 - 0.8

Those 4 years account for more than 50% of his entire careers worth of minutes played. 7196 (1st 4 years) vs 7922 (last 3+ this year).

As for saying it will normalize, I mean sure, most likely, but that doesn't change where he will end up, bottom 5 in NBA history.

ya, that's what I said. Since 19/20, his attempts and makes have gone down dramatically and his scoring focus has been inside. The 3 ball hasn't been a big part of his game except for 1 season. Even with the "historically" bad 3pt shooting, his overall efficiency isn't far off from what he's posted over the last couple years.

You make it sound like it's fallen off a cliff. His 3PAr is going up, the last 3 years .181 >.219 >.251.

His overall efficiency isn't far off? This is the worst season of his career, unless you want to nitpick and use his rookie year as the only one worse. Just look at his stats, virtually everything is trending in the wrong direction. FTr down, DRB% down, AST% down, BL% WAY down, TOV% up, WS/48 way down, VORP and all BPM stats WAY down, TS% way down, PER way down, FT% down.

Hell, one of the only things that has gone up this year is his FG% in the 3-10ft range, everything else is either sideways or down.

This isn't reading tea leaves, they are objective numbers.

[TRik]

It's actually not that bad of thing. All it means is that he likely regresses to the mean, and shoots a better percentage which will lead to better offensive flow and probably a better winning percentage for the team. Sorry to all the frothing Siakam haters.

Sure he might get back to some level of bad average.

But also, you legitimately can’t find a 15 game sample this bad for a player going back to the early 80’s. IMO I think it is absolutely fair to say that’s terrible.

[Tortiglioni]

Moar shats.

[OakleyDokely]

I'm sorry what? He had a singular year that was an outlier of 6.1 attempts and 2.2 makes. Every year following has been :

4.4 - 1.3
3.2 - 1.1
4.0 - 1.3
4.1 - 0.8

Those 4 years account for more than 50% of his entire careers worth of minutes played. 7196 (1st 4 years) vs 7922 (last 3+ this year).

As for saying it will normalize, I mean sure, most likely, but that doesn't change where he will end up, bottom 5 in NBA history.

ya, that's what I said. Since 19/20, his attempts and makes have gone down dramatically and his scoring focus has been inside. The 3 ball hasn't been a big part of his game except for 1 season. Even with the "historically" bad 3pt shooting, his overall efficiency isn't far off from what he's posted over the last couple years.

You make it sound like it's fallen off a cliff. His 3PAr is going up, the last 3 years .181 >.219 >.251.

His overall efficiency isn't far off? This is the worst season of his career, unless you want to nitpick and use his rookie year as the only one worse. Just look at his stats, virtually everything is trending in the wrong direction. FTr down, DRB% down, AST% down, BL% WAY down, TOV% up, WS/48 way down, VORP and all BPM stats WAY down, TS% way down, PER way down, FT% down.

Hell, one of the only things that has gone up this year is his FG% in the 3-10ft range, everything else is either sideways or down.

This isn't reading tea leaves, they are objective numbers.

3pt attempts per 36 (not very difficult to spot the outlier season):

17/18: 2.8
18/19: 3.0
19/20: 6.2
20/21: 4.4
21/22: 3.0
22/23: 3.9
23/24: 4.3


TS%:

19/20: .554
20/21: .547
21/22: .565
22/23: .565
23/24: .544

He's never been a highly efficient player even when he had the 3pt shot going that one season, but he has been pretty consistent from year to year. Yes, if he somehow continues to shoot under 20% from 3, he will finish slightly below his typical efficiency level.

[Raps in 4]

Never seen a player's touch alternate between good and bad as it does with Siakam. He goes through stretches where he's banking in shots from all angles and splashing stepback 3s. And then he completely loses confidence for stretches where he misses point blank layups, his bank shots turn into missiles that careen off the glass and miss the rim, he can't buy a jumpshot, and his free throws become shaky.

He's never been a mechanically sound player, which lends itself to inconsistency.

[YogurtProducer]

His overall efficiency isn't far off? This is the worst season of his career, unless you want to nitpick and use his rookie year as the only one worse. Just look at his stats, virtually everything is trending in the wrong direction. FTr down, DRB% down, AST% down, BL% WAY down, TOV% up, WS/48 way down, VORP and all BPM stats WAY down, TS% way down, PER way down, FT% down.

FTR down - outside 2022-23 at .361, his current FTr (.316) would be the 3rd highest of his career.

DRB% down - Outside 2021-22, and 2022-23, in which he played a lot of small ball C and therefore increases his rebounding opportunities, his current rate (17.9%) is in line with his career average of 17.5%-18.6% outside his rookie year (16%) or the small ball C years (20%).

AST% down - Pretty much directly coorelated to his increase of his FG attempts being assisted (30ish% last 2 year, up to 49% this year). Pretty much a result of a changed role where he initiates less and finishes more. Hard to have the same AST% when your role changes from starting a play to ending it.

BL% down - Yep. But we are talking a difference of 0.8% here. Aka one good game away from being right back in line with career averages.

TOV% up - Career average of 11.2%, and currently sitting at 12.6%. That is literally 3-4 less turnovers over the span of the entire season thus far.

WS/48 way down - this is a team cumulative stats, and as far as I know extremely box score based. It is pretty much a catch all of the above ^ items.

VORP / BPM - again, correct me if I am wrong, but see WS/48 above.

TS% way down- way down? really? Outside of his rookie and championship year, it has been between 54.7-56.5% his entire career. He is at 54.4% despite the previously mentioned horrible 3 point shooting. The fact it is that high despite shooting this bad is actually surprising to me.

PER - come on lmao

FT% - A career 77% shooter shooting 75% from the line.

Can I just go out on a limb here and say there is a lot of key context and/or exaggeration going on?

[Scase]

ya, that's what I said. Since 19/20, his attempts and makes have gone down dramatically and his scoring focus has been inside. The 3 ball hasn't been a big part of his game except for 1 season. Even with the "historically" bad 3pt shooting, his overall efficiency isn't far off from what he's posted over the last couple years.

You make it sound like it's fallen off a cliff. His 3PAr is going up, the last 3 years .181 >.219 >.251.

His overall efficiency isn't far off? This is the worst season of his career, unless you want to nitpick and use his rookie year as the only one worse. Just look at his stats, virtually everything is trending in the wrong direction. FTr down, DRB% down, AST% down, BL% WAY down, TOV% up, WS/48 way down, VORP and all BPM stats WAY down, TS% way down, PER way down, FT% down.

Hell, one of the only things that has gone up this year is his FG% in the 3-10ft range, everything else is either sideways or down.

This isn't reading tea leaves, they are objective numbers.

3pt attempts per 36 (not very difficult to spot the outlier season):

17/18: 2.8
18/19: 3.0
19/20: 6.2
20/21: 4.4
21/22: 3.0
22/23: 3.9
23/24: 4.3


TS%:

19/20: .554
20/21: .547
21/22: .565
22/23: .565
23/24: .544

He's never been a highly efficient player even when he had the 3pt shot going that one season, but he has been pretty consistent from year to year. Yes, if he somehow continues to shoot under 20% from 3, he will finish slightly below his typical efficiency level.

Who cares about per 36? He has played 35.8, 37.9, 37.4, 34.3 MPG the last 4 seasons. You don't need per 36, when the player already plays those minutes, you can just use season averages. Additionally, Per 36 is a way more flawed version of Per 100 possessions.

And again, I showed you his 3PAr, it is going up, that is independent of minutes played, and is strictly based on the % of his shots that are 3's.

Why cherry pick some random per 36 stat, when you can just use raw stats for a player who actually plays 36mpg.

[OakleyDokely]

It's actually a very positive sign that Siakam's TS% is nearly at 55 despite shooting 19% from 3. If his 3pt shot normalizes, he has the chance of posting his top TS% in years.

[OakleyDokely]

You make it sound like it's fallen off a cliff. His 3PAr is going up, the last 3 years .181 >.219 >.251.

His overall efficiency isn't far off? This is the worst season of his career, unless you want to nitpick and use his rookie year as the only one worse. Just look at his stats, virtually everything is trending in the wrong direction. FTr down, DRB% down, AST% down, BL% WAY down, TOV% up, WS/48 way down, VORP and all BPM stats WAY down, TS% way down, PER way down, FT% down.

Hell, one of the only things that has gone up this year is his FG% in the 3-10ft range, everything else is either sideways or down.

This isn't reading tea leaves, they are objective numbers.

3pt attempts per 36 (not very difficult to spot the outlier season):

17/18: 2.8
18/19: 3.0
19/20: 6.2
20/21: 4.4
21/22: 3.0
22/23: 3.9
23/24: 4.3


TS%:

19/20: .554
20/21: .547
21/22: .565
22/23: .565
23/24: .544

He's never been a highly efficient player even when he had the 3pt shot going that one season, but he has been pretty consistent from year to year. Yes, if he somehow continues to shoot under 20% from 3, he will finish slightly below his typical efficiency level.

Who cares about per 36? He has played 35.8, 37.9, 37.4, 34.3 MPG the last 4 seasons. You don't need per 36, when the player already plays those minutes, you can just use season averages. Additionally, Per 36 is a way more flawed version of Per 100 possessions.

And again, I showed you his 3PAr, it is going up, that is independent of minutes played, and is strictly based on the % of his shots that are 3's.

Why cherry pick some random per 36 stat, when you can just use raw stats for a player who actually plays 36mpg.

I don't even know what you're arguing.

He had 1 outlier season when he shot the 3 on volume and even when he shot it well from 3 that season, it really had no impact on his overall efficiency compared to other seasons.

Other than for that 1 season, the 3pt shot hasn't been a big part of his overall shot chart.

[YogurtProducer]

You make it sound like it's fallen off a cliff. His 3PAr is going up, the last 3 years .181 >.219 >.251.

His overall efficiency isn't far off? This is the worst season of his career, unless you want to nitpick and use his rookie year as the only one worse. Just look at his stats, virtually everything is trending in the wrong direction. FTr down, DRB% down, AST% down, BL% WAY down, TOV% up, WS/48 way down, VORP and all BPM stats WAY down, TS% way down, PER way down, FT% down.

Hell, one of the only things that has gone up this year is his FG% in the 3-10ft range, everything else is either sideways or down.

This isn't reading tea leaves, they are objective numbers.

3pt attempts per 36 (not very difficult to spot the outlier season):

17/18: 2.8
18/19: 3.0
19/20: 6.2
20/21: 4.4
21/22: 3.0
22/23: 3.9
23/24: 4.3


TS%:

19/20: .554
20/21: .547
21/22: .565
22/23: .565
23/24: .544

He's never been a highly efficient player even when he had the 3pt shot going that one season, but he has been pretty consistent from year to year. Yes, if he somehow continues to shoot under 20% from 3, he will finish slightly below his typical efficiency level.

Who cares about per 36? He has played 35.8, 37.9, 37.4, 34.3 MPG the last 4 seasons. You don't need per 36, when the player already plays those minutes, you can just use season averages. Additionally, Per 36 is a way more flawed version of Per 100 possessions.

And again, I showed you his 3PAr, it is going up, that is independent of minutes played, and is strictly based on the % of his shots that are 3's.

Why cherry pick some random per 36 stat, when you can just use raw stats for a player who actually plays 36mpg.

Because when you have stats with a little bit different of minutes played it makes for a nice "apples to apples" comparison to normalize the minutes and per minute production.

His 3 point rate has only gone up because his 2 point attempts have gone down, namely his mid range and long twos.

Mid range shots made up 28ish% of his shot selection last year. It is down to 16% this year. He has not replaced those shots with anything, so on a % of his shots basis his 3 point rate is up, but he actually is not taking more 3 point shots.

[YogurtProducer]

I don't even know what you're arguing.

For the sake of it

[YogurtProducer]

It's actually a very positive sign that Siakam's TS% is nearly at 55 despite shooting 19% from 3. If his 3pt shot normalizes, he has the chance of posting his top TS% in years.

Yeah. There have been a lot of positives in terms of his offense this year, and if he was shooting his career average from 3 this year his TS% would be 58.44% this season.

Obviously that is not happening, but there is good reason to believe the 3 point %'s will creep back up to normal, whereas his other stuff is pretty sustainable as he simply is just not shooting the bad shots anymore (the long 2's)

[OakleyDokely]

It's actually a very positive sign that Siakam's TS% is nearly at 55 despite shooting 19% from 3. If his 3pt shot normalizes, he has the chance of posting his top TS% in years.

Yeah. There have been a lot of positives in terms of his offense this year, and if he was shooting his career average from 3 this year his TS% would be 58.44% this season.

Obviously that is not happening, but there is good reason to believe the 3 point %'s will creep back up to normal, whereas his other stuff is pretty sustainable as he simply is just not shooting the bad shots anymore (the long 2's)

Not that Siakam is Giannis, but if you look at Giannis over the last few years, as his 3pt attempts and makes have declined, his efficiency has stabilized or even gone up. Sometimes it's better to focus on what you excel at instead of trying to play the type of game expected from modern wings.

[ItsDanger]

It always seemed like he had side spin on his shots.

[Madvillainy2004]

It's actually a very positive sign that Siakam's TS% is nearly at 55 despite shooting 19% from 3. If his 3pt shot normalizes, he has the chance of posting his top TS% in years.

Yeah. There have been a lot of positives in terms of his offense this year, and if he was shooting his career average from 3 this year his TS% would be 58.44% this season.

Obviously that is not happening, but there is good reason to believe the 3 point %'s will creep back up to normal, whereas his other stuff is pretty sustainable as he simply is just not shooting the bad shots anymore (the long 2's)

I'm worried about his 3 from a anecdotal sense of man some of his shots look not even close. The misses have been pretty wild/erratic. But I think the numbers even out in the end.

[YogurtProducer]

It's actually a very positive sign that Siakam's TS% is nearly at 55 despite shooting 19% from 3. If his 3pt shot normalizes, he has the chance of posting his top TS% in years.

Yeah. There have been a lot of positives in terms of his offense this year, and if he was shooting his career average from 3 this year his TS% would be 58.44% this season.

Obviously that is not happening, but there is good reason to believe the 3 point %'s will creep back up to normal, whereas his other stuff is pretty sustainable as he simply is just not shooting the bad shots anymore (the long 2's)

I'm worried about his 3 from a anecdotal sense of man some of his shots look not even close. The misses have been pretty wild/erratic. But I think the numbers even out in the end.

I think he has always been like that though. 33ish% is by no means good and kind of shows he has always been inconsistent. 19% is obviously dreadful and a 10/56 month is bad. But even last season he shot:

21-45 47% in Feb and then followed it up with 14-54 and 26% in March.

We are talking about really, really small samples here. 50 shots in the grand scheme of things is really next to nothing, and if history tells us anything (not just for Siakam, but for any low-mid volume meh shooters), he is gonna have a 40% month to offset to 20% month and we are right back at his carerer 30%.

[Scase]

His overall efficiency isn't far off? This is the worst season of his career, unless you want to nitpick and use his rookie year as the only one worse. Just look at his stats, virtually everything is trending in the wrong direction. FTr down, DRB% down, AST% down, BL% WAY down, TOV% up, WS/48 way down, VORP and all BPM stats WAY down, TS% way down, PER way down, FT% down.

FTR down - outside 2022-23 at .361, his current FTr (.316) would be the 3rd highest of his career.

DRB% down - Outside 2021-22, and 2022-23, in which he played a lot of small ball C and therefore increases his rebounding opportunities, his current rate (17.9%) is in line with his career average of 17.5%-18.6% outside his rookie year (16%) or the small ball C years (20%).

AST% down - Pretty much directly coorelated to his increase of his FG attempts being assisted (30ish% last 2 year, up to 49% this year). Pretty much a result of a changed role where he initiates less and finishes more. Hard to have the same AST% when your role changes from starting a play to ending it.

BL% down - Yep. But we are talking a difference of 0.8% here. Aka one good game away from being right back in line with career averages.

TOV% up - Career average of 11.2%, and currently sitting at 12.6%. That is literally 3-4 less turnovers over the span of the entire season thus far.

WS/48 way down - this is a team cumulative stats, and as far as I know extremely box score based. It is pretty much a catch all of the above ^ items.

VORP / BPM - again, correct me if I am wrong, but see WS/48 above.

TS% way down- way down? really? Outside of his rookie and championship year, it has been between 54.7-56.5% his entire career. He is at 54.4% despite the previously mentioned horrible 3 point shooting. The fact it is that high despite shooting this bad is actually surprising to me.

PER - come on lmao

FT% - A career 77% shooter shooting 75% from the line.

Can I just go out on a limb here and say there is a lot of key context and/or exaggeration going on?

Ah yes, context now conveniently matters to you.

All the stats I listed, are all down from last year.

You seem to lack a fundamental grasp about what most of these stats actually are calculating, and pretty confidently coming up with excuses for each one.

AST% - Scotties 2/3's have increased by 2 and 3% respectively, yet his AST% has jumped 4% from last year. Siakams USG% is down a whopping 1.3% so yeah, I hardly doubt it's his shots being assisted on making a difference.

BL% - I'm sorry, one good game? He's averaging 0.2 BPG, he averaged 0.5 last year, but sure 1 good game might help with that. All that would require is him making 6 blocks in a game. Good thing only 14 players have done it this season, and every single one of them that has, is averaging close to 2 a game this year.

TOV% - No, that would be 6.5 TOs and that equates to 12.3% of his total turnovers this season. So yeah, if a player managed 12% less turnovers, that would be good.

WS/48 - It is way more complex, WS/48 requires multiple calculations to get DWS and OWS, combined, and then adjusted per 48.

TS% - Yes a 2.1% drop is massive, as is a 2.1% gain. His career average is 56.6%, I seem to recall you harping on Scotties TS% quite a bit, but now it is an exaggeration, that's convenient.

PER - Take it or leave it, it is still a measurable stat at which he is declining.

[Scase]

This thread : Siakam having historically terrible 3p shooting
The usual suspects : Yeah but imagine how high his TS% would be if he wasn't, no no guys trust, this is actually a positive.

My god you people are delusional.

[OakleyDokely]

Giannis is averaging his lowest attempts from 3 since the 2017 season. His current 3pt% of 22% is his lowest average since his second season in the NBA. Despite this, he's currently posting his highest TS% of his career (.641).

Ideally Darko leans into Siakam's ability inside even more. Siakam isn't a 3pt shooter, he's never going to be a 3pt point shooter. Siakam's shot chart should be almost entirely inside the paint. The big problem with this is the spacing issues the Raps have and teams pack the paint against the Raps leaving little space for Siakam to operate.