Siakam is shooting the 3 at a historically bad rate, and has a chance to be one of the worst in NBA history.

[HumbleRen]

This whole thread reminds me of the whole Demar discourse lol.

[YogurtProducer]

He'll probably shoot it at .320 for the rest of the year; headline number will look ugly but taking out the cold start will brings us back to who Siakam has always been, a .310 to .330 3pt shooter on 3-4 attempts a game - a subpar 3pt threat. Conversely, he's shooting better inside the arc this season than ever in his career. It's somewhat surprising given the complete lack of spacing, though would also again point to Thorpe's comment that Scottie's hot start shifted some attention away from Pascal which has coincided with Scottie's numbers going down and Pascal getting more opportunities.

On a micro level, given his TS%, the bad 3pt shot is not as devastating as the headline suggests. But given how starved this team is for any space, it really sucks that this is the season he is shooting the 3 so bad.

Siakam could shoot anywhere from 25-40% for the year and it would not surprise me.

The fact he has shot so poorly so far does not necessarily mean he is going to rebound and shoot above those averages going forward, but just because he has shot 19% this year also does not mean he is going to shoot 19% all year.

If Siakam gets back to 32ish% on the season though it is gonna take shooting like 36-38% here on out, which is unlikely.

It's just as unlikely that he shoots it at .360 going forward as he continues shooting sub .300. The headline will look ugly as he just doesn't put up enough volume to correct the .200 he's at right now at the end of the season but odds are he'll shoot in that .320 range for the rest of the year going forward.

Yep sorry misunderstood what you were saying. I thought you meant he would get to 32%.

[YogurtProducer]

This whole thread reminds me of the whole Demar discourse lol.

Know whats crazy about Demar?

In Toronto he shot 42.7% from 10-16ft and 38.1% from 16ft-3P.

Siakam? He has shot 43.2% and 37.2% respectively on those shots (and since he really became "the guy" has shot 452% and 38.1%).

Crazy how Demar got this reputation for being a mid range assassin when he was really not

[TheAlchemist23]

What's strange is that Otto Porter and Boucher have been shooting very well from 3 but don't play that much.

Seems to me Darko is under a mandate to play Precious come hell or high water

[pingpongrac]

He'll probably shoot it at .320 for the rest of the year; headline number will look ugly but taking out the cold start will brings us back to who Siakam has always been, a .310 to .330 3pt shooter on 3-4 attempts a game - a subpar 3pt threat. Conversely, he's shooting better inside the arc this season than ever in his career. It's somewhat surprising given the complete lack of spacing, though would also again point to Thorpe's comment that Scottie's hot start shifted some attention away from Pascal which has coincided with Scottie's numbers going down and Pascal getting more opportunities.

On a micro level, given his TS%, the bad 3pt shot is not as devastating as the headline suggests. But given how starved this team is for any space, it really sucks that this is the season he is shooting the 3 so bad.

Pretty much exactly this. His three-point shooting has been absolutely abysmal (outside of the first few games when he was pretty abysmal everywhere else but defensively), but everything else is pretty much in line with what you'd expect/want to see from Siakam; his per36 and per100 possessions numbers are very close to what he was putting up the previous 4 seasons despite a slightly lower USG% and he is finishing inside more frequently (60% of his shots are coming within 10 feet and he's converting them at 61% VS 48% of shots coming within 10 feet last season at a 58% conversion rate) while his midrange shooting has still been solid despite much fewer attempts (0.7 makes at 40% VS 1.5 makes at 41% last season).

His three-point shooting (or lack thereof) has tanked his numbers a bit and it's disappointing that our already poor spacing of the starters has been affected even more, but it's also not unreasonable to think he can/will get back to 30-32% by the end of the season. As already mentioned by a few posters, Siakam has always been a pretty streaky three-point shooter where he'll shoot 20% one month then 40% the next. Because he doesn't shoot a very high volume, a few good games can turn things right around; for example, last season he had a 25-game stretch where he hit ~35% of his threes, but it was almost entirely buoyed by a few great nights where he hit a combined 19 of 27 3FGA (70%) whereas he hit a combined 21 of 86 3FGA (24%) in the other 20 games.

[hyper316]

Siakam started the season first 5 games around .400 3pt%, then it took a nose dive.

The guy was shooting okay playing offball. When he got more touches and his efficiency cratered.

[Scase]

He'll probably shoot it at .320 for the rest of the year; headline number will look ugly but taking out the cold start will brings us back to who Siakam has always been, a .310 to .330 3pt shooter on 3-4 attempts a game - a subpar 3pt threat. Conversely, he's shooting better inside the arc this season than ever in his career. It's somewhat surprising given the complete lack of spacing, though would also again point to Thorpe's comment that Scottie's hot start shifted some attention away from Pascal which has coincided with Scottie's numbers going down and Pascal getting more opportunities.

On a micro level, given his TS%, the bad 3pt shot is not as devastating as the headline suggests. But given how starved this team is for any space, it really sucks that this is the season he is shooting the 3 so bad.

Pretty much exactly this. His three-point shooting has been absolutely abysmal (outside of the first few games when he was pretty abysmal everywhere else but defensively), but everything else is pretty much in line with what you'd expect/want to see from Siakam; his per36 and per100 possessions numbers are very close to what he was putting up the previous 4 seasons despite a slightly lower USG% and he is finishing inside more frequently (60% of his shots are coming within 10 feet and he's converting them at 61% VS 48% of shots coming within 10 feet last season at a 58% conversion rate) while his midrange shooting has still been solid despite much fewer attempts (0.7 makes at 40% VS 1.5 makes at 41% last season).

His three-point shooting (or lack thereof) has tanked his numbers a bit and it's disappointing that our already poor spacing of the starters has been affected even more, but it's also not unreasonable to think he can/will get back to 30-32% by the end of the season. As already mentioned by a few posters, Siakam has always been a pretty streaky three-point shooter where he'll shoot 20% one month then 40% the next. Because he doesn't shoot a very high volume, a few good games can turn things right around; for example, last season he had a 25-game stretch where he hit ~35% of his threes, but it was almost entirely buoyed by a few great nights where he hit a combined 19 of 27 3FGA (70%) whereas he hit a combined 21 of 86 3FGA (24%) in the other 20 games.

I hope to god you mean he will shoot 30-32% for the rest of the season, and not end with a season average of 30-32%. Cause if it's the latter, you might want to go re-read the OP.

[bluerap23]

I think it's mostly a sample size issue and it will normalize over time, like GTJ's FT %.

The 3 really hasn't been a big component of his game since the 19/20 season. His made 3s and attempts have gone down dramatically since that season as his focus on interior scoring has intensified. .

I'm more concerned about GTJ FTs. That is mental.

[ItsDanger]

His road stats are putrid 3/34.

That's 8.8%.

[ForeverTFC]

He'll probably shoot it at .320 for the rest of the year; headline number will look ugly but taking out the cold start will brings us back to who Siakam has always been, a .310 to .330 3pt shooter on 3-4 attempts a game - a subpar 3pt threat. Conversely, he's shooting better inside the arc this season than ever in his career. It's somewhat surprising given the complete lack of spacing, though would also again point to Thorpe's comment that Scottie's hot start shifted some attention away from Pascal which has coincided with Scottie's numbers going down and Pascal getting more opportunities.

On a micro level, given his TS%, the bad 3pt shot is not as devastating as the headline suggests. But given how starved this team is for any space, it really sucks that this is the season he is shooting the 3 so bad.

Pretty much exactly this. His three-point shooting has been absolutely abysmal (outside of the first few games when he was pretty abysmal everywhere else but defensively), but everything else is pretty much in line with what you'd expect/want to see from Siakam; his per36 and per100 possessions numbers are very close to what he was putting up the previous 4 seasons despite a slightly lower USG% and he is finishing inside more frequently (60% of his shots are coming within 10 feet and he's converting them at 61% VS 48% of shots coming within 10 feet last season at a 58% conversion rate) while his midrange shooting has still been solid despite much fewer attempts (0.7 makes at 40% VS 1.5 makes at 41% last season).

His three-point shooting (or lack thereof) has tanked his numbers a bit and it's disappointing that our already poor spacing of the starters has been affected even more, but it's also not unreasonable to think he can/will get back to 30-32% by the end of the season. As already mentioned by a few posters, Siakam has always been a pretty streaky three-point shooter where he'll shoot 20% one month then 40% the next. Because he doesn't shoot a very high volume, a few good games can turn things right around; for example, last season he had a 25-game stretch where he hit ~35% of his threes, but it was almost entirely buoyed by a few great nights where he hit a combined 19 of 27 3FGA (70%) whereas he hit a combined 21 of 86 3FGA (24%) in the other 20 games.

I hope to god you mean he will shoot 30-32% for the rest of the season, and not end with a season average of 30-32%. Cause if it's the latter, you might want to go re-read the OP.

Unless his volume picks up, will be very hard for him to hit .320 for the season; he just doesn't shoot enough to climb out of this hole. But the flipside is, because he doesn't shoot that many 3s, long as he hits .320-.330 going forward, if he keeps his 2pt % similar to today's level, he'll have one of his best TS% year most likely. Crazy that he can end his season at .300 from 3 and put up the 2nd best TS% of his career.

[Scase]

Pretty much exactly this. His three-point shooting has been absolutely abysmal (outside of the first few games when he was pretty abysmal everywhere else but defensively), but everything else is pretty much in line with what you'd expect/want to see from Siakam; his per36 and per100 possessions numbers are very close to what he was putting up the previous 4 seasons despite a slightly lower USG% and he is finishing inside more frequently (60% of his shots are coming within 10 feet and he's converting them at 61% VS 48% of shots coming within 10 feet last season at a 58% conversion rate) while his midrange shooting has still been solid despite much fewer attempts (0.7 makes at 40% VS 1.5 makes at 41% last season).

His three-point shooting (or lack thereof) has tanked his numbers a bit and it's disappointing that our already poor spacing of the starters has been affected even more, but it's also not unreasonable to think he can/will get back to 30-32% by the end of the season. As already mentioned by a few posters, Siakam has always been a pretty streaky three-point shooter where he'll shoot 20% one month then 40% the next. Because he doesn't shoot a very high volume, a few good games can turn things right around; for example, last season he had a 25-game stretch where he hit ~35% of his threes, but it was almost entirely buoyed by a few great nights where he hit a combined 19 of 27 3FGA (70%) whereas he hit a combined 21 of 86 3FGA (24%) in the other 20 games.

I hope to god you mean he will shoot 30-32% for the rest of the season, and not end with a season average of 30-32%. Cause if it's the latter, you might want to go re-read the OP.

Unless his volume picks up, will be very hard for him to hit .320 for the season; he just doesn't shoot enough to climb out of this hole. But the flipside is, because he doesn't shoot that many 3s, long as he hits .320-.330 going forward, if he keeps his 2pt % similar to today's level, he'll have one of his best TS% year most likely. Crazy that he can end his season at .300 from 3 and put up the 2nd best TS% of his career.

Yeah the volume definitely isn't going to happen, that would be doubling down to an insane degree. And him putting up 36% on current volume for 62 games also definitely isn't going to happen.

As for his TS%, if we expect his 3pt to slowly go back to averages, we should expect the same for his 2p% to go down. Siakam is what he is, an inefficient player, I can't see any way that he ends up anything higher than 55-56% TS%.

[YogurtProducer]

I hope to god you mean he will shoot 30-32% for the rest of the season, and not end with a season average of 30-32%. Cause if it's the latter, you might want to go re-read the OP.

Unless his volume picks up, will be very hard for him to hit .320 for the season; he just doesn't shoot enough to climb out of this hole. But the flipside is, because he doesn't shoot that many 3s, long as he hits .320-.330 going forward, if he keeps his 2pt % similar to today's level, he'll have one of his best TS% year most likely. Crazy that he can end his season at .300 from 3 and put up the 2nd best TS% of his career.

Yeah the volume definitely isn't going to happen, that would be doubling down to an insane degree. And him putting up 36% on current volume for 62 games also definitely isn't going to happen.

As for his TS%, if we expect his 3pt to slowly go back to averages, we should expect the same for his 2p% to go down. Siakam is what he is, an inefficient player, I can't see any way that he ends up anything higher than 55-56% TS%.

You keep saying it "definitely is not going to happen" but ignore that he has literally shot 37% and 36% over two whole seasons before, and even in the last 2 years was shooting 33.3% over the course of the two years. It really is not crazy to think he could turn it around and shoot the hell out of the ball for a few months. The fact that his mid-range #'s are still in line with his career makes me believe this is more of a weird small sample dip than anything else. In the grand scheme of thing 81 shots is next to nothing and you could find almost any shooter have an 81 shot sample in which their %'s dip (or exceed) their average by 10-15%.

Edit: for example, Siakam himself had a 21 for 45 month last year. Add that to his current stats and he is already up to 29.3% on the season. And that is not just a 1-mont thing. 17-41 or 23-54 in two different months in 2021-22, 66-170 (39%) over a 3-month span in 2019-20. It is really not that crazy to think he has a crazy month or two shooting as he has had these highs and lows before in prior years.

And no, the 2pt% is kind of a different scenario. His assist rate on two point shots has skyrocketed from 30ish% the last 3 years all the way up to 50% this year, which is in line with his 2019 championship year in which he shot 60% from 2 (higher than what he is doing right now). He is getting just better shots this year, and even his 3-balls are almost all assisted and there is next to no pull-up 3's which again is more suggestive that his %'s should increase vs prior years.

[Scase]

Unless his volume picks up, will be very hard for him to hit .320 for the season; he just doesn't shoot enough to climb out of this hole. But the flipside is, because he doesn't shoot that many 3s, long as he hits .320-.330 going forward, if he keeps his 2pt % similar to today's level, he'll have one of his best TS% year most likely. Crazy that he can end his season at .300 from 3 and put up the 2nd best TS% of his career.

Yeah the volume definitely isn't going to happen, that would be doubling down to an insane degree. And him putting up 36% on current volume for 62 games also definitely isn't going to happen.

As for his TS%, if we expect his 3pt to slowly go back to averages, we should expect the same for his 2p% to go down. Siakam is what he is, an inefficient player, I can't see any way that he ends up anything higher than 55-56% TS%.

You keep saying it "definitely is not going to happen" but ignore that he has literally shot 37% and 36% over two whole seasons before, and even in the last 2 years was shooting 33.3% over the course of the two years. It really is not crazy to think he could turn it around and shoot the hell out of the ball for a few months. The fact that his mid-range #'s are still in line with his career makes me believe this is more of a weird small sample dip than anything else. In the grand scheme of thing 81 shots is next to nothing and you could find almost any shooter have an 81 shot sample in which their %'s dip (or exceed) their average by 10-15%.

And no, the 2pt% is kind of a different scenario. His assist rate on two point shots has skyrocketed from 30ish% the last 3 years all the way up to 50% this year, which is in line with his 2019 championship year in which he shot 60% from 2 (higher than what he is doing right now). He is getting just better shots this year, and even his 3-balls are almost all assisted and there is next to no pull-up 3's which again is more suggestive that his %'s should increase vs prior years.

He has done it once in his entire career on any actual level of volume. And the last 4 years has been a constant down trend, and a pretty significant one at that.

But according to you his much higher 2pt% is totally sustainable and not a small sample size, but his 3pt shooting and his history as a 3p shooter is

That's about as selective as it gets. I would happily put money on him not even sniffing 36% let alone finishing the season at it.

[pingpongrac]

He'll probably shoot it at .320 for the rest of the year; headline number will look ugly but taking out the cold start will brings us back to who Siakam has always been, a .310 to .330 3pt shooter on 3-4 attempts a game - a subpar 3pt threat. Conversely, he's shooting better inside the arc this season than ever in his career. It's somewhat surprising given the complete lack of spacing, though would also again point to Thorpe's comment that Scottie's hot start shifted some attention away from Pascal which has coincided with Scottie's numbers going down and Pascal getting more opportunities.

On a micro level, given his TS%, the bad 3pt shot is not as devastating as the headline suggests. But given how starved this team is for any space, it really sucks that this is the season he is shooting the 3 so bad.

Pretty much exactly this. His three-point shooting has been absolutely abysmal (outside of the first few games when he was pretty abysmal everywhere else but defensively), but everything else is pretty much in line with what you'd expect/want to see from Siakam; his per36 and per100 possessions numbers are very close to what he was putting up the previous 4 seasons despite a slightly lower USG% and he is finishing inside more frequently (60% of his shots are coming within 10 feet and he's converting them at 61% VS 48% of shots coming within 10 feet last season at a 58% conversion rate) while his midrange shooting has still been solid despite much fewer attempts (0.7 makes at 40% VS 1.5 makes at 41% last season).

His three-point shooting (or lack thereof) has tanked his numbers a bit and it's disappointing that our already poor spacing of the starters has been affected even more, but it's also not unreasonable to think he can/will get back to 30-32% by the end of the season. As already mentioned by a few posters, Siakam has always been a pretty streaky three-point shooter where he'll shoot 20% one month then 40% the next. Because he doesn't shoot a very high volume, a few good games can turn things right around; for example, last season he had a 25-game stretch where he hit ~35% of his threes, but it was almost entirely buoyed by a few great nights where he hit a combined 19 of 27 3FGA (70%) whereas he hit a combined 21 of 86 3FGA (24%) in the other 20 games.

I hope to god you mean he will shoot 30-32% for the rest of the season, and not end with a season average of 30-32%. Cause if it's the latter, you might want to go re-read the OP.

Yeah, I read the OP (and everything else that followed), but I understand that isn't how averages work. You can't just say "well, Siakam has only shot 36% twice for an entire season, so that means he probably won't shoot 36% for a prolonged period this season because he is only shooting 20% now". You seem to be glossing over the fact that three-point shooting is very high variance and Siakam has had numerous very bad (and good) stretches in his career thus far while discounting the possibility that he could shoot a respectable percentage in the remaining 3/4 of the season bringing his 3FG% back up to the low end of his career (30%). That is what I think will happen. He is far more likely to shoot 33-35% the rest of the season (which he has typically done since increasing his three-point volume in 19/20) which would likely find him in the low 30s.

If you read my post highlighting a time where he shot pretty well behind the arc for a 25-game stretch last season, my counterpoint would become more clear. And if you want more evidence that this is what Siakam has generally been when it comes to three-point shooting, he had a somewhat similar stretch in 19/20 – his best three-point shooting season considering volume/efficiency/role – where his 3FG% over 25 games was 32% but it was almost entirely buoyed by 5 games (again); he hit a combined 26 of 46 (57%) in 5 games whereas he hit a combined 20 of 98 (20%) in the other 20 games. He has never been a guy that consistently gives you 1-2 threes on 4-5 attempts per game. He has always had a bunch of brutal games as well as a handful of hot shooting nights mixed in with the average; from 19/20 to last season, he had 15 games with 5+ 3FGM (where he hit 78 of 130 attempts for 60%) while he went 0-for in 60 games (in which he attempted 191 threes) yet he still wound up shooting 33.3% over those 4 years.

We're 20 games into the season. ~80 3FGA is nothing – even for someone like Siakam who is a relatively low-volume three-point shooter. He just had a month where he hit 18% of his threes (which is similar to the 20% he hit in January 2021 and the 22% he hit in December 2022), but he could just as easily have a good-to-great month of December (like the 47% he hit in February earlier this year, the 43% and 42% he hit in March and January of 2022, the 42% he hit in December of 2019, etc.). The issue (like others have said) is this brutal stretch is coming at the beginning of the season so we have nothing else to equalize his streaky shooting yet.

[YogurtProducer]

He has done it once in his entire career on any actual level of volume. And the last 4 years has been a constant down trend, and a pretty significant one at that.

Once?

2018-19 - 36.9% on 2.7 a game
2019-20 - 35.9% on 6.1 a game
2020-21 - 29.7% on 4.4 a game
2021-22 - 34.4% on 3.2 a game
2022-23 - 32.4% on 4.0 a game
2023-24 - 19.8% on 4.1 a game

IDK man - you tell me what is the outlier... the 4 32-36% seasons or the 1 20% season

But according to you his much higher 2pt% is totally sustainable and not a small sample size, but his 3pt shooting and his history as a 3p shooter is

Considering his role is similar to 2019 where he playing more off-ball, picking his spots, and decreasing the amount of mid-range shots he is taking, it seems completely reasonable to assume his 2pt% will stay higher unless he reverts back to taking 26-30% of his shots from the mid-range again (opposed to 15% this season). There is very easy to follow, logical reasoning as to why his 2 point percentage is up.

1) An increase of 18% of his buckets are now being assisted in a new system
2) He is not shooting the mid range

Meanwhile his decrease in 3 point percentage is due to.

1) Missing them, despite getting arguably better looks than he got the last 2 years.

That's about as selective as it gets. I would happily put money on him not even sniffing 36% let alone finishing the season at it.

Good thing absolutely no one said he was going to finish the season at 36% so you are making up arguments in your head. People just stated it is possible he can shoot a percentage that high, or even a few points below, over the last 62 games of the year and bring his %'s right back in line with his career.

[Scase]

Pretty much exactly this. His three-point shooting has been absolutely abysmal (outside of the first few games when he was pretty abysmal everywhere else but defensively), but everything else is pretty much in line with what you'd expect/want to see from Siakam; his per36 and per100 possessions numbers are very close to what he was putting up the previous 4 seasons despite a slightly lower USG% and he is finishing inside more frequently (60% of his shots are coming within 10 feet and he's converting them at 61% VS 48% of shots coming within 10 feet last season at a 58% conversion rate) while his midrange shooting has still been solid despite much fewer attempts (0.7 makes at 40% VS 1.5 makes at 41% last season).

His three-point shooting (or lack thereof) has tanked his numbers a bit and it's disappointing that our already poor spacing of the starters has been affected even more, but it's also not unreasonable to think he can/will get back to 30-32% by the end of the season. As already mentioned by a few posters, Siakam has always been a pretty streaky three-point shooter where he'll shoot 20% one month then 40% the next. Because he doesn't shoot a very high volume, a few good games can turn things right around; for example, last season he had a 25-game stretch where he hit ~35% of his threes, but it was almost entirely buoyed by a few great nights where he hit a combined 19 of 27 3FGA (70%) whereas he hit a combined 21 of 86 3FGA (24%) in the other 20 games.

I hope to god you mean he will shoot 30-32% for the rest of the season, and not end with a season average of 30-32%. Cause if it's the latter, you might want to go re-read the OP.

Yeah, I read the OP (and everything else that followed), but I understand that isn't how averages work. You can't just say "well, Siakam has only shot 36% twice for an entire season, so that means he probably won't shoot 36% for a prolonged period this season because he is only shooting 20% now". You seem to be glossing over the fact that three-point shooting is very high variance and Siakam has had numerous very bad (and good) stretches in his career thus far while discounting the possibility that he could shoot a respectable percentage in the remaining 3/4 of the season bringing his 3FG% back up to the low end of his career (30%). That is what I think will happen. He is far more likely to shoot 33-35% the rest of the season (which he has typically done since increasing his three-point volume in 19/20) which would likely find him in the low 30s.

If you read my post highlighting a time where he shot pretty well behind the arc for a 25-game stretch last season, my counterpoint would become more clear. And if you want more evidence that this is what Siakam has generally been when it comes to three-point shooting, he had a somewhat similar stretch in 19/20 – his best three-point shooting season considering volume/efficiency/role – where his 3FG% over 25 games was 32% but it was almost entirely buoyed by 5 games (again); he hit a combined 26 of 46 (57%) in 5 games whereas he hit a combined 20 of 98 (20%) in the other 20 games. He has never been a guy that consistently gives you 1-2 threes on 4-5 attempts per game. He has always had a bunch of brutal games as well as a handful of hot shooting nights mixed in with the average; from 19/20 to last season, he had 15 games with 5+ 3FGM (where he hit 78 of 130 attempts for 60%) while he went 0-for in 60 games (in which he attempted 191 threes) yet he still wound up shooting 33.3% over those 4 years.

We're 20 games into the season. ~80 3FGA is nothing – even for someone like Siakam who is a relatively low-volume three-point shooter. He just had a month where he hit 18% of his threes (which is similar to the 20% he hit in January 2021 and the 22% he hit in December 2022), but he could just as easily have a good-to-great month of December (like the 47% he hit in February earlier this year, the 43% and 42% he hit in March and January of 2022, the 42% he hit in December of 2019, etc.). The issue (like others have said) is this brutal stretch is coming at the beginning of the season so we have nothing else to equalize his streaky shooting yet.

First and foremost, just cause he shot 36% on high volume for a single season on a team stacked with shooters is absolutely zero indication that he can replicate that 5 years later.

Second just because he's had stretches of 20 games where he shot well doesn't change the fact that he needs to shoot well for the next 62 games.

And no, if he shoots 33-35% that doesn't put him " in the low 30's.
33% puts him at 29.8%
34% puts him at 30.4%
35% puts him at 31.3%

Most people would classify that as 30% not "low 30's".

You seem to keep bringing up 19-20, the outlier from his entire career as if it is some sort of proof of what he is likely to achieve, instead of you know, the more relevant 3 prior years where he averaged 32%. Also ignoring that the team he shot 36% on had :
KL at 35%
FVV at 39%
OG at 39%
Norm at 40%
Serge at 38.5%
Gasol at 38.5%
Terrence Davis at 39%.

Which is insane from a spacing perspective, while this team doesn't even have a third of that. But sure, keep thinking that the singular year is indicative of the outcome vs the other 4-5 years. Claim 80 3pa is "nothing" despite it being 30% of his entire attempts last year.

[Scase]

He has done it once in his entire career on any actual level of volume. And the last 4 years has been a constant down trend, and a pretty significant one at that.

Once?

2018-19 - 36.9% on 2.7 a game
2019-20 - 35.9% on 6.1 a game
2020-21 - 29.7% on 4.4 a game
2021-22 - 34.4% on 3.2 a game
2022-23 - 32.4% on 4.0 a game
2023-24 - 19.8% on 4.1 a game

IDK man - you tell me what is the outlier... the 4 32-36% seasons or the 1 20% season

But according to you his much higher 2pt% is totally sustainable and not a small sample size, but his 3pt shooting and his history as a 3p shooter is

Considering his role is similar to 2019 where he playing more off-ball, picking his spots, and decreasing the amount of mid-range shots he is taking, it seems completely reasonable to assume his 2pt% will stay higher unless he reverts back to taking 26-30% of his shots from the mid-range again (opposed to 15% this season). There is very easy to follow, logical reasoning as to why his 2 point percentage is up.

1) An increase of 18% of his buckets are now being assisted in a new system
2) He is not shooting the mid range

Meanwhile his decrease in 3 point percentage is due to.

1) Missing them, despite getting arguably better looks than he got the last 2 years.

That's about as selective as it gets. I would happily put money on him not even sniffing 36% let alone finishing the season at it.

Good thing absolutely no one said he was going to finish the season at 36% so you are making up arguments in your head. People just stated it is possible he can shoot a percentage that high, or even a few points below, over the last 62 games of the year and bring his %'s right back in line with his career.

2.7 is low volume.
So he's had a singular season of high volume, and good shooting.

I'll put my money on him repeating the last 3 years over an outlier season on a team with a stacked shooting roster creating space. I don't know how you can look at 3 years in a row of below average to just straight up bad shooting, and claim a season from 5 years ago is more valid than the current reality we live in.

Putting out some real dumb and dumber vibes here.

[YogurtProducer]

He has done it once in his entire career on any actual level of volume. And the last 4 years has been a constant down trend, and a pretty significant one at that.

Once?

2018-19 - 36.9% on 2.7 a game
2019-20 - 35.9% on 6.1 a game
2020-21 - 29.7% on 4.4 a game
2021-22 - 34.4% on 3.2 a game
2022-23 - 32.4% on 4.0 a game
2023-24 - 19.8% on 4.1 a game

IDK man - you tell me what is the outlier... the 4 32-36% seasons or the 1 20% season

But according to you his much higher 2pt% is totally sustainable and not a small sample size, but his 3pt shooting and his history as a 3p shooter is

Considering his role is similar to 2019 where he playing more off-ball, picking his spots, and decreasing the amount of mid-range shots he is taking, it seems completely reasonable to assume his 2pt% will stay higher unless he reverts back to taking 26-30% of his shots from the mid-range again (opposed to 15% this season). There is very easy to follow, logical reasoning as to why his 2 point percentage is up.

1) An increase of 18% of his buckets are now being assisted in a new system
2) He is not shooting the mid range

Meanwhile his decrease in 3 point percentage is due to.

1) Missing them, despite getting arguably better looks than he got the last 2 years.

That's about as selective as it gets. I would happily put money on him not even sniffing 36% let alone finishing the season at it.

Good thing absolutely no one said he was going to finish the season at 36% so you are making up arguments in your head. People just stated it is possible he can shoot a percentage that high, or even a few points below, over the last 62 games of the year and bring his %'s right back in line with his career.

2.7 is low volume.
So he's had a singular season of high volume, and good shooting.

I'll put my money on him repeating the last 3 years over an outlier season on a team with a stacked shooting roster creating space. I don't know how you can look at 3 years in a row of below average to just straight up bad shooting, and claim a season from 5 years ago is more valid than the current reality we live in.

Putting out some real dumb and dumber vibes here.

Nice personal attack.

Go back and read what people are saying, because you are obviously not reading posts and are just coming up with retorts that are fake arguments you’ve made up that no one has said.

Good night man - do better tomorrow.

[Scase]

Once?

2018-19 - 36.9% on 2.7 a game
2019-20 - 35.9% on 6.1 a game
2020-21 - 29.7% on 4.4 a game
2021-22 - 34.4% on 3.2 a game
2022-23 - 32.4% on 4.0 a game
2023-24 - 19.8% on 4.1 a game

IDK man - you tell me what is the outlier... the 4 32-36% seasons or the 1 20% season



Considering his role is similar to 2019 where he playing more off-ball, picking his spots, and decreasing the amount of mid-range shots he is taking, it seems completely reasonable to assume his 2pt% will stay higher unless he reverts back to taking 26-30% of his shots from the mid-range again (opposed to 15% this season). There is very easy to follow, logical reasoning as to why his 2 point percentage is up.

1) An increase of 18% of his buckets are now being assisted in a new system
2) He is not shooting the mid range

Meanwhile his decrease in 3 point percentage is due to.

1) Missing them, despite getting arguably better looks than he got the last 2 years.


Good thing absolutely no one said he was going to finish the season at 36% so you are making up arguments in your head. People just stated it is possible he can shoot a percentage that high, or even a few points below, over the last 62 games of the year and bring his %'s right back in line with his career.

2.7 is low volume.
So he's had a singular season of high volume, and good shooting.

I'll put my money on him repeating the last 3 years over an outlier season on a team with a stacked shooting roster creating space. I don't know how you can look at 3 years in a row of below average to just straight up bad shooting, and claim a season from 5 years ago is more valid than the current reality we live in.

Putting out some real dumb and dumber vibes here.

Nice personal attack.

Go back and read what people are saying, because you are obviously not reading posts and are just coming up with retorts that are fake arguments you’ve made up that no one has said.

Good night man - do better tomorrow.

How the hell is that a personal attack? I'm not calling you dumb, I'm referencing the "So youre telling me there's a chance" quote, jesus, stop playing the victim card.

[ForeverTFC]

I hope to god you mean he will shoot 30-32% for the rest of the season, and not end with a season average of 30-32%. Cause if it's the latter, you might want to go re-read the OP.

Unless his volume picks up, will be very hard for him to hit .320 for the season; he just doesn't shoot enough to climb out of this hole. But the flipside is, because he doesn't shoot that many 3s, long as he hits .320-.330 going forward, if he keeps his 2pt % similar to today's level, he'll have one of his best TS% year most likely. Crazy that he can end his season at .300 from 3 and put up the 2nd best TS% of his career.

Yeah the volume definitely isn't going to happen, that would be doubling down to an insane degree. And him putting up 36% on current volume for 62 games also definitely isn't going to happen.

As for his TS%, if we expect his 3pt to slowly go back to averages, we should expect the same for his 2p% to go down. Siakam is what he is, an inefficient player, I can't see any way that he ends up anything higher than 55-56% TS%.

I'm not sure about that. If you look at his shot chart, the main thing that's changed is 1) the volume 0-3 feet in has gone up and 2) his % 0-3 feet in has also gone up: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/siakapa01.html

Then, if you drill into his shot profile, you notice 2 significant changes since last year: 1) we've significantly decreased how long he holds the ball (touch time) before a shot and 2) we've cut down on his dribbles per shot: https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1627783/shots-dash?Season=2023-24

We've essentially turned him into a finisher more than a creator and it's resulting in him shooting a better percentage inside the paint. The increase in 2pt % can be explained by our new offense. The 3 point distribution on the other hand looks a lot like last season. So he can definitely bring up his 3pt % while keeping the 2pt % consistent.