Siakam is shooting the 3 at a historically bad rate, and has a chance to be one of the worst in NBA history.

[pingpongrac]

I hope to god you mean he will shoot 30-32% for the rest of the season, and not end with a season average of 30-32%. Cause if it's the latter, you might want to go re-read the OP.

Unless his volume picks up, will be very hard for him to hit .320 for the season; he just doesn't shoot enough to climb out of this hole. But the flipside is, because he doesn't shoot that many 3s, long as he hits .320-.330 going forward, if he keeps his 2pt % similar to today's level, he'll have one of his best TS% year most likely. Crazy that he can end his season at .300 from 3 and put up the 2nd best TS% of his career.

Yeah the volume definitely isn't going to happen, that would be doubling down to an insane degree. And him putting up 36% on current volume for 62 games also definitely isn't going to happen.

As for his TS%, if we expect his 3pt to slowly go back to averages, we should expect the same for his 2p% to go down. Siakam is what he is, an inefficient player, I can't see any way that he ends up anything higher than 55-56% TS%.

Siakam's 2FG% is the highest it has been since 18/19 because he is taking more shots in close and he's finishing more plays rather than being the main creator. Why should we expect his 2FG% to drop a noticeable amount when he is taking better/easier shots inside the paint while also taking less midrange shots?

As for his 3FG%, he is quite literally just missing open shots; as you yourself have already pointed out, he is shooting 22% on shots deemed as open/wide open while also shooting just 24% from the corners and 25% on C&S threes altogether. Those are statistically the most efficient threes – and ones that Siakam has typically hit at a respectable level as he hit them at 34%, 37% and 35% respectively since 19/20 – so it's more than reasonable to expect a climb to the low-to-mid 30s by the end of the season.

It's awfully ironic how you're going through so much work to push this narrative that Siakam is on course to becoming one of the worst three-point shooters in NBA history because of his past averages (where he was just a below average shooter at 33% the past 4 seasons but also had similar stretches of terrible shooting...yet still typically finished around 34%) while completely discounting any slightly negative remark when it comes to Scottie's three-point shooting in other threads (like how he's probably not going to maintain his ~40% shooting behind the arc and he'll likely fall back to the mid 30s by the end of the season...which would still be amazing).

[ForeverTFC]

Unless his volume picks up, will be very hard for him to hit .320 for the season; he just doesn't shoot enough to climb out of this hole. But the flipside is, because he doesn't shoot that many 3s, long as he hits .320-.330 going forward, if he keeps his 2pt % similar to today's level, he'll have one of his best TS% year most likely. Crazy that he can end his season at .300 from 3 and put up the 2nd best TS% of his career.

Yeah the volume definitely isn't going to happen, that would be doubling down to an insane degree. And him putting up 36% on current volume for 62 games also definitely isn't going to happen.

As for his TS%, if we expect his 3pt to slowly go back to averages, we should expect the same for his 2p% to go down. Siakam is what he is, an inefficient player, I can't see any way that he ends up anything higher than 55-56% TS%.

Siakam's 2FG% is the highest it has been since 18/19 because he is taking more shots in close and he's finishing more plays rather than being the main creator. Why should we expect his 2FG% to drop a noticeable amount when he is taking better/easier shots inside the paint while also taking less midrange shots?

As for his 3FG%, he is quite literally just missing open shots; as you yourself have already pointed out, he is shooting 22% on shots deemed as open/wide open while also shooting just 24% from the corners and 25% on C&S threes altogether. Those are statistically the most efficient threes – and ones that Siakam has typically hit at a respectable level as he hit them at 34%, 37% and 35% respectively since 19/20 – so it's more than reasonable to expect a climb to the low-to-mid 30s by the end of the season.

It's awfully ironic how you're going through so much work to push this narrative that Siakam is on course to becoming one of the worst three-point shooters in NBA history because of his past averages (where he was just a below average shooter at 33% the past 4 seasons but also had similar stretches of terrible shooting...yet still typically finished around 34%) while completely discounting any slightly negative remark when it comes to Scottie's three-point shooting in other threads (like how he's probably not going to maintain his ~40% shooting behind the arc and he'll likely fall back to the mid 30s by the end of the season...which would still be amazing).

The notion that Siakam can't be a 2nd option / finisher in an offense needs to go tbh. He had his best season in that role and if the 3 normalizes this year, he will have one of his more efficient seasons this year as well in that role.

Pascal needs to be moved, but not because he can't be a complementary piece on a roster. He's one of only 3 players on the roster with real trade value, his age, and the fact that neither he or Scottie thrive when the defense zeros in on them. Both guys need a true number 1 option to take the defensive attention and I'm becoming convinced this is the reason they rarely have high scoring games at the same time - the defense will take one of them out most times.

[Scase]

Unless his volume picks up, will be very hard for him to hit .320 for the season; he just doesn't shoot enough to climb out of this hole. But the flipside is, because he doesn't shoot that many 3s, long as he hits .320-.330 going forward, if he keeps his 2pt % similar to today's level, he'll have one of his best TS% year most likely. Crazy that he can end his season at .300 from 3 and put up the 2nd best TS% of his career.

Yeah the volume definitely isn't going to happen, that would be doubling down to an insane degree. And him putting up 36% on current volume for 62 games also definitely isn't going to happen.

As for his TS%, if we expect his 3pt to slowly go back to averages, we should expect the same for his 2p% to go down. Siakam is what he is, an inefficient player, I can't see any way that he ends up anything higher than 55-56% TS%.

Siakam's 2FG% is the highest it has been since 18/19 because he is taking more shots in close and he's finishing more plays rather than being the main creator. Why should we expect his 2FG% to drop a noticeable amount when he is taking better/easier shots inside the paint while also taking less midrange shots?

As for his 3FG%, he is quite literally just missing open shots; as you yourself have already pointed out, he is shooting 22% on shots deemed as open/wide open while also shooting just 24% from the corners and 25% on C&S threes altogether. Those are statistically the most efficient threes – and ones that Siakam has typically hit at a respectable level as he hit them at 34%, 37% and 35% respectively since 19/20 – so it's more than reasonable to expect a climb to the low-to-mid 30s by the end of the season.

It's awfully ironic how you're going through so much work to push this narrative that Siakam is on course to becoming one of the worst three-point shooters in NBA history because of his past averages (where he was just a below average shooter at 33% the past 4 seasons but also had similar stretches of terrible shooting...yet still typically finished around 34%) while completely discounting any slightly negative remark when it comes to Scottie's three-point shooting in other threads (like how he's probably not going to maintain his ~40% shooting behind the arc and he'll likely fall back to the mid 30s by the end of the season...which would still be amazing).

Go find a single post of mine where I have said that Scottie will maintain a 38-40% 3p%, since there are so many of them I'm sure it should be easy.

[Scase]

Unless his volume picks up, will be very hard for him to hit .320 for the season; he just doesn't shoot enough to climb out of this hole. But the flipside is, because he doesn't shoot that many 3s, long as he hits .320-.330 going forward, if he keeps his 2pt % similar to today's level, he'll have one of his best TS% year most likely. Crazy that he can end his season at .300 from 3 and put up the 2nd best TS% of his career.

Yeah the volume definitely isn't going to happen, that would be doubling down to an insane degree. And him putting up 36% on current volume for 62 games also definitely isn't going to happen.

As for his TS%, if we expect his 3pt to slowly go back to averages, we should expect the same for his 2p% to go down. Siakam is what he is, an inefficient player, I can't see any way that he ends up anything higher than 55-56% TS%.

I'm not sure about that. If you look at his shot chart, the main thing that's changed is 1) the volume 0-3 feet in has gone up and 2) his % 0-3 feet in has also gone up: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/siakapa01.html

Then, if you drill into his shot profile, you notice 2 significant changes since last year: 1) we've significantly decreased how long he holds the ball (touch time) before a shot and 2) we've cut down on his dribbles per shot: https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1627783/shots-dash?Season=2023-24

We've essentially turned him into a finisher more than a creator and it's resulting in him shooting a better percentage inside the paint. The increase in 2pt % can be explained by our new offense. The 3 point distribution on the other hand looks a lot like last season. So he can definitely bring up his 3pt % while keeping the 2pt % consistent.

If a 20 game sample size isn't enough to determine his 3p%, then it isn't enough to determine his 2p%. While I don't discount his shot diet has changed, there's nothing saying that defences won't just adjust to that as well.

Also are you sure you're looking at the right numbers? His 0-3ft rate has gone up, but his efficiency has gone down, and he's right at career averages. 2022-23 he was shooting 75% from 0-3, this year he's shooting 71.1%. If anything this is evidence that it will continue to go down, 20 games in he's at around career averages, but typically more volume = lower efficiency.

So while it's completely realistic and very plausible that he maintains that, it's also a possibility it dips.

It's only his 3-10ft shot that has gone up 47.4 > 50.5, while maintaining the exact same rate.

[ItsDanger]

If you believe his 3 pt shooting would "normalize", then why wouldn't his 2 pt % also "normalize"? Interesting justification for a player's struggles by team calculator.

[YogurtProducer]

If you believe his 3 pt shooting would "normalize", then why wouldn't his 2 pt % also "normalize"? Interesting justification for a player's struggles by team calculator.

Read the thread and peoples responses. You might just find out.

[YogurtProducer]

Yeah the volume definitely isn't going to happen, that would be doubling down to an insane degree. And him putting up 36% on current volume for 62 games also definitely isn't going to happen.

As for his TS%, if we expect his 3pt to slowly go back to averages, we should expect the same for his 2p% to go down. Siakam is what he is, an inefficient player, I can't see any way that he ends up anything higher than 55-56% TS%.

Siakam's 2FG% is the highest it has been since 18/19 because he is taking more shots in close and he's finishing more plays rather than being the main creator. Why should we expect his 2FG% to drop a noticeable amount when he is taking better/easier shots inside the paint while also taking less midrange shots?

As for his 3FG%, he is quite literally just missing open shots; as you yourself have already pointed out, he is shooting 22% on shots deemed as open/wide open while also shooting just 24% from the corners and 25% on C&S threes altogether. Those are statistically the most efficient threes – and ones that Siakam has typically hit at a respectable level as he hit them at 34%, 37% and 35% respectively since 19/20 – so it's more than reasonable to expect a climb to the low-to-mid 30s by the end of the season.

It's awfully ironic how you're going through so much work to push this narrative that Siakam is on course to becoming one of the worst three-point shooters in NBA history because of his past averages (where he was just a below average shooter at 33% the past 4 seasons but also had similar stretches of terrible shooting...yet still typically finished around 34%) while completely discounting any slightly negative remark when it comes to Scottie's three-point shooting in other threads (like how he's probably not going to maintain his ~40% shooting behind the arc and he'll likely fall back to the mid 30s by the end of the season...which would still be amazing).

Go find a single post of mine where I have said that Scottie will maintain a 38-40% 3p%, since there are so many of them I'm sure it should be easy.

Here you go! Two seconds of looking through 1 thread.

Scottie definitely only has the 20 game sample, but as I've mentioned before, Scottie is shooting completely differently from the previous season, which is why I'm inclined to believe this is way more sustainable. No to mention, Scottie is 22 and making leaps, that's pretty normal

Honestly, if he had the same shooting mechanics as last year, i would happily say it's a hot streak, but it's markedly different which is why I think it's much more sustainable.

So Scotties 20 game sample of 38% is "sustainable" (based on nothing but 20 SSS games) but it is outlandish for people to suggest Siakam will probably end up shooting the 3 at a similar rate he has for 5 years and 1500ish shots. Make this make sense.

[Scase]

Siakam's 2FG% is the highest it has been since 18/19 because he is taking more shots in close and he's finishing more plays rather than being the main creator. Why should we expect his 2FG% to drop a noticeable amount when he is taking better/easier shots inside the paint while also taking less midrange shots?

As for his 3FG%, he is quite literally just missing open shots; as you yourself have already pointed out, he is shooting 22% on shots deemed as open/wide open while also shooting just 24% from the corners and 25% on C&S threes altogether. Those are statistically the most efficient threes – and ones that Siakam has typically hit at a respectable level as he hit them at 34%, 37% and 35% respectively since 19/20 – so it's more than reasonable to expect a climb to the low-to-mid 30s by the end of the season.

It's awfully ironic how you're going through so much work to push this narrative that Siakam is on course to becoming one of the worst three-point shooters in NBA history because of his past averages (where he was just a below average shooter at 33% the past 4 seasons but also had similar stretches of terrible shooting...yet still typically finished around 34%) while completely discounting any slightly negative remark when it comes to Scottie's three-point shooting in other threads (like how he's probably not going to maintain his ~40% shooting behind the arc and he'll likely fall back to the mid 30s by the end of the season...which would still be amazing).

Go find a single post of mine where I have said that Scottie will maintain a 38-40% 3p%, since there are so many of them I'm sure it should be easy.

Here you go! Two seconds of looking through 1 thread.

Scottie definitely only has the 20 game sample, but as I've mentioned before, Scottie is shooting completely differently from the previous season, which is why I'm inclined to believe this is way more sustainable. No to mention, Scottie is 22 and making leaps, that's pretty normal

Honestly, if he had the same shooting mechanics as last year, i would happily say it's a hot streak, but it's markedly different which is why I think it's much more sustainable.

So Scotties 20 game sample of 38% is "sustainable" (based on nothing but 20 SSS games) but it is outlandish for people to suggest Siakam will probably end up shooting the 3 at a similar rate he has for 5 years and 1500ish shots. Make this make sense.

Cool, zero reference to me saying 38% is going to be his end of year average, and definitely nowhere me saying that due to mechanics changing it is more sustainable.

Maybe instead of taking two seconds looking, you should take two seconds reading.

It's almost like words, and how you use them actually mean things.

Not to mention countless times I said I would expect Siakams 3pt% to get closer to his career averages for the remainder of the season, not his average at the END of the season, just read the words instead of skimming them and getting all giddy because you think you caught me.

[God Squad]

I ain't gon lie. I wake up, read the forums and then then get sad. Especially because I believe we should be better, but I know why we're not.

"the whole is greater than the sum of its parts"

[YogurtProducer]

Go find a single post of mine where I have said that Scottie will maintain a 38-40% 3p%, since there are so many of them I'm sure it should be easy.

Here you go! Two seconds of looking through 1 thread.

Scottie definitely only has the 20 game sample, but as I've mentioned before, Scottie is shooting completely differently from the previous season, which is why I'm inclined to believe this is way more sustainable. No to mention, Scottie is 22 and making leaps, that's pretty normal

Honestly, if he had the same shooting mechanics as last year, i would happily say it's a hot streak, but it's markedly different which is why I think it's much more sustainable.

So Scotties 20 game sample of 38% is "sustainable" (based on nothing but 20 SSS games) but it is outlandish for people to suggest Siakam will probably end up shooting the 3 at a similar rate he has for 5 years and 1500ish shots. Make this make sense.

Cool, zero reference to me saying 38% is going to be his end of year average, and definitely nowhere me saying that due to mechanics changing it is more sustainable.

Maybe instead of taking two seconds looking, you should take two seconds reading.

It's almost like words, and how you use them actually mean things.

You have argued with me multiple times when I have said he is gonna settle in somewhere around 32-36%. So you "never" said you think it will be 38-40%, and you argue with me when I say its likely gonna fall into 32-36%. So you must obviously think he is what, a 37% shooter? We all know that is a load of crap.

You got called out, you are wrong, and now you are trying to save face with technicalities. Anyone who says something is "sustainable" does not actually mean they think it sustainable at a lower level than what is currently happening.

The word "more" does not change the meaning of "sustainable". You were arguing with people all the way back to when Scottie was averaging 42% from 3 and it has fallen 4% since then.

Not to mention countless times I said I would expect Siakams 3pt% to get closer to his career averages for the remainder of the season, not his average at the END of the season, just read the words instead of skimming them and getting all giddy because you think you caught me.

Then stop arguing with everyone pointing out reasons for why this will happen and why you are overreacting.

Either way - pretty much done here before the blue text comes in telling us to shut the **** up

[ItsDanger]

If you believe his 3 pt shooting would "normalize", then why wouldn't his 2 pt % also "normalize"? Interesting justification for a player's struggles by team calculator.

Read the thread and peoples responses. You might just find out.

I did, the logic is inherently flawed like usual.

[YogurtProducer]

If you believe his 3 pt shooting would "normalize", then why wouldn't his 2 pt % also "normalize"? Interesting justification for a player's struggles by team calculator.

Read the thread and peoples responses. You might just find out.

I did, the logic is inherently flawed like usual.

Care to elaborate where it is flawed?

[ThatClockWork]

He is taking shots that really should be coming from others on the floor (Trent, GD, Denis, etc.). His volume from 3 should be lower considering his midrange shot is not broken.

This one is on the coaching staff (and him for continuing to take those shots .. will not magically end up at a 35+% clip by forcing the issue .. this does nothing to help us with our spacing issues that continue to persist).

[ItsDanger]

Read the thread and peoples responses. You might just find out.

I did, the logic is inherently flawed like usual.

Care to elaborate where it is flawed?

Sure, when you present a sound argument including normalization of all factors.

[Scase]

Here you go! Two seconds of looking through 1 thread.





So Scotties 20 game sample of 38% is "sustainable" (based on nothing but 20 SSS games) but it is outlandish for people to suggest Siakam will probably end up shooting the 3 at a similar rate he has for 5 years and 1500ish shots. Make this make sense.

Cool, zero reference to me saying 38% is going to be his end of year average, and definitely nowhere me saying that due to mechanics changing it is more sustainable.

Maybe instead of taking two seconds looking, you should take two seconds reading.

It's almost like words, and how you use them actually mean things.

You have argued with me multiple times when I have said he is gonna settle in somewhere around 32-36%. So you "never" said you think it will be 38-40%, and you argue with me when I say its likely gonna fall into 32-36%. So you must obviously think he is what, a 37% shooter? We all know that is a load of crap.

You got called out, you are wrong, and now you are trying to save face with technicalities. Anyone who says something is "sustainable" does not actually mean they think it sustainable at a lower level than what is currently happening.

The word "more" does not change the meaning of "sustainable". You were arguing with people all the way back to when Scottie was averaging 42% from 3 and it has fallen 4% since then.

Not to mention countless times I said I would expect Siakams 3pt% to get closer to his career averages for the remainder of the season, not his average at the END of the season, just read the words instead of skimming them and getting all giddy because you think you caught me.

Then stop arguing with everyone pointing out reasons for why this will happen and why you are overreacting.

Either way - pretty much done here before the blue text comes in telling us to shut the **** up

I think what Scottie needs is :
Mid range to be automatic.
Handle needs to be tightened up, he dribbles too high and lost control of the ball bouncing way above his head like 2x in the pistons game alone.
If the 3pt is real, then it's perfect for now, solid 35% is great for his size.

Scottie shooting 40% from 3 after 2 years of 30 and 28% is not a realistic expectation of year to year growth

I would be utterly shocked to see him not rest around the mid 30's for 3p% by year end.

What he is doing isn't sustainable, and no one should be surprised when he cools off

My hope is that the inevitable return to realistic efficiency is a reasonable descent, and not a precipitous fall lol. Scottie on league average efficiency would be an insane year 2->3 jump.

His mechanics just look night and day from last year, I'd be genuinely shocked if he wasnt at the 34-35% mark by end of season.

I'm always a big fan of you telling me what I mean when I say it. I would continue spending more time proving you wrong again, but I know you'll just hand wave it away somehow and tell me what I meant when I said I expect it to settle around mid 30's.

[ItsDanger]

[x]

Read on Twitter

[/x]

I'm sure the analytics crowd could explain the PPP advantage of chucking at this horrible rate but I just don't see it. Maybe take less 3s?

[YogurtProducer]

I did, the logic is inherently flawed like usual.

Care to elaborate where it is flawed?

Sure, when you present a sound argument including normalization of all factors.

Sure. You could read the thread to get that information, but if you need it presented in a clear and concise way I can do that for you.

The argument being: Siakams 2pt% has risen in 2023-24 as a result in a change in shot selection and NOT due to some noisy variance we can expect to fall. Most notably, a decrease in the amount of mid range shots he is taking.

The process being: I took his 2023-24 shot diet (aka, the % of shots from different areas inside the 3 point line), and multiplied his shot selection this year to his shooting %'s from prior years to see what his 2 point % would have been if he had taken these shots in prior years.

The conclusion being:

2023-24 - 57.0% (the same, for obvious reasons)
2022-23 - 57.7%
2021-22 - 57.0%
2020-21 - 53.0%
2019-20 - 49.8%
2018-19 - 57.0%
2017-18 - 54.4%
2016-17 - 50.5%
Carerer - 55.0%

Therefore - it it reasonable to assume that this 2pt% is sustainable, as he is not shooting over his head from any areas of the floor and is line in his career averages for all intensive purposes (his career averages are really dragged down by the first half of his career)

Counter-arguments
Teams will start to defend him differently and force him away from those spots and his efficiency will fall. You could maybe suggest that, however we saw in 2018-19 when he took on less usage his efficiency stayed high (even higher than today)

Another consideration - his assisted 2 point % (as since you have read the thread you would know) has increased from 31% to 49% this year. This means he is taking easier shots, less isolation (which likely correlates to the decrease in mid range shots), and usually is a recipe for increased efficiency.


So please, grace me with your infinite knowledge and explain my flaws in my logic.

[Scase]

[x]

Read on Twitter

[/x]

I'm sure the analytics crowd could explain the PPP advantage of chucking at this horrible rate but I just don't see it. Maybe take less 3s?

There's way too much variance in scenarios to definitively say the 3 is more PPP than a 2. Because it all depends on the 2 taken.

Typically speaking a 3 > mid range/long 2. But a close 2, say in the paint > a 3.

This is due to a wide level of variance on hitting a 3, which is usually 35-36% vs hitting a 2 in the paint which is around 60ish % + the likelihood of drawing a foul to convert a 3 pt play.

For Siakam based on his FTr and much much much higher efficiency in the paint, a 3 is a horrific shot for him to take from a PPP perspective. He's currently shooting 22.4% on wide open 3's and 20.8% on open 3s. Taking a 3 this season is probably the worst thing he can do.

[ItsDanger]

Care to elaborate where it is flawed?

Sure, when you present a sound argument including normalization of all factors.

Sure. You could read the thread to get that information, but if you need it presented in a clear and concise way I can do that for you.

The argument being: Siakams 2pt% has risen in 2023-24 as a result in a change in shot selection and NOT due to some noisy variance we can expect to fall. Most notably, a decrease in the amount of mid range shots he is taking.

The process being: I took his 2023-24 shot diet (aka, the % of shots from different areas inside the 3 point line), and multiplied his shot selection this year to his shooting %'s from prior years to see what his 2 point % would have been if he had taken these shots in prior years.

The conclusion being:

2023-24 - 57.0% (the same, for obvious reasons)
2022-23 - 57.7%
2021-22 - 57.0%
2020-21 - 53.0%
2019-20 - 49.8%
2018-19 - 57.0%
2017-18 - 54.4%
2016-17 - 50.5%
Carerer - 55.0%

Therefore - it it reasonable to assume that this 2pt% is sustainable, as he is not shooting over his head from any areas of the floor and is line in his career averages for all intensive purposes (his career averages are really dragged down by the first half of his career)

Counter-arguments
Teams will start to defend him differently and force him away from those spots and his efficiency will fall. You could maybe suggest that, however we saw in 2018-19 when he took on less usage his efficiency stayed high (even higher than today)

Another consideration - his assisted 2 point % (as since you have read the thread you would know) has increased from 31% to 49% this year. This means he is taking easier shots, less isolation (which likely correlates to the decrease in mid range shots), and usually is a recipe for increased efficiency.


So please, grace me with your infinite knowledge and explain my flaws in my logic.

So you think his current 2 pt shots won't normalize and will remain at current rate while his 3 pt will improve/normalize to historical averages? Interesting theory.

[MiamiSPX]

His 3pt shot is completely broken but as abysmal as it has been the last 4-5 games, I can't think of many he took that could be considered a bad shot. They were all within the flow of the offense and in most cases he was wide open (for a reason, I know). Not sure what the solution is but he can't simply pass them up. Our offense needs his 3s to start dropping, as does he for contract purposes.