Trade Talk (Part 14): 2023-24 Edition

[winforlose]

Oh, the full MLE? Lovely, I'm sure we'll be able to replace their contributions with just that.


Buddy, the Timberwolves can get Lebron and stay under the tax. What's your point?

Put simply, Arod and Lore will make the decision. I cannot see them being capable of affording the repeater tax, which means we get two years in the luxury tax. If you think this should be one of them, that is your opinion. I would however suggest that whatever move puts us into the tax had better be a blockbuster/game changer. Trading for a marginal upgrade or a 3 point sharpshooter who doesn’t play defense is not worth a whole year of having KAT, Rudy, Ant, and Jaden, because that is literally what we are talking about.

Well now we need to define "blockbuster" and "marginal upgrade".

I would argue a "game changer" could be as simple as getting a competent backup PG, given how weak we are in that area. I would agree that we shouldn't trade Shake just to get "Shake + 1".

And again, I'm not arguing that we have to go into the lux this year. If you go back to the post Colbinii quoted but apparently didn't read I explicitly stated that it's not a requirement. We can, for example, trade Shake and Moore for Delon Wright while staying under the tax (and that includes the bonus Conley gets for a Finals appearance) which I believe would be a "game changer". I just hate the idea that if someone offered us a great rotational piece that could inch us ahead of our competition for a championship, with the only cost being that we're going into the lux, that we'd flat out deny it on future money reasons.

I get that. But the longer we keep this core together the better. It will also help us attract the kind of cheap talent that the Warriors and others get (ring chasers.) I agree that we have room to make moves, and hopefully TC has a few in mind.

[Klomp]

Put simply, Arod and Lore will make the decision. I cannot see them being capable of affording the repeater tax, which means we get two years in the luxury tax. If you think this should be one of them, that is your opinion. I would however suggest that whatever move puts us into the tax had better be a blockbuster/game changer. Trading for a marginal upgrade or a 3 point sharpshooter who doesn’t play defense is not worth a whole year of having KAT, Rudy, Ant, and Jaden, because that is literally what we are talking about.

Well now we need to define "blockbuster" and "marginal upgrade".

I would argue a "game changer" could be as simple as getting a competent backup PG, given how weak we are in that area. I would agree that we shouldn't trade Shake just to get "Shake + 1".

And again, I'm not arguing that we have to go into the lux this year. If you go back to the post Colbinii quoted but apparently didn't read I explicitly stated that it's not a requirement. We can, for example, trade Shake and Moore for Delon Wright while staying under the tax (and that includes the bonus Conley gets for a Finals appearance) which I believe would be a "game changer". I just hate the idea that if someone offered us a great rotational piece that could inch us ahead of our competition for a championship, with the only cost being that we're going into the lux, that we'd flat out deny it on future money reasons.

I get that. But the longer we keep this core together the better. It will also help us attract the kind of cheap talent that the Warriors and others get (ring chasers.) I agree that we have room to make moves, and hopefully TC has a few in mind.

If we’re only on the fringe of the tax, it won’t cost us one of the big players. More likely, it’s downgrading from the guys in the $5-9M range.

[winforlose]

Well now we need to define "blockbuster" and "marginal upgrade".

I would argue a "game changer" could be as simple as getting a competent backup PG, given how weak we are in that area. I would agree that we shouldn't trade Shake just to get "Shake + 1".

And again, I'm not arguing that we have to go into the lux this year. If you go back to the post Colbinii quoted but apparently didn't read I explicitly stated that it's not a requirement. We can, for example, trade Shake and Moore for Delon Wright while staying under the tax (and that includes the bonus Conley gets for a Finals appearance) which I believe would be a "game changer". I just hate the idea that if someone offered us a great rotational piece that could inch us ahead of our competition for a championship, with the only cost being that we're going into the lux, that we'd flat out deny it on future money reasons.

I get that. But the longer we keep this core together the better. It will also help us attract the kind of cheap talent that the Warriors and others get (ring chasers.) I agree that we have room to make moves, and hopefully TC has a few in mind.

If we’re only on the fringe of the tax, it won’t cost us one of the big players. More likely, it’s downgrading from the guys in the $5-9M range.

Repeater tax penalties can easily top 100 million. GSW is paying 193 in tax this year.

[winforlose]

We have been talking about Tyus potentially. What about Tre Jones? I thought he was a bad 3 point shooter, but last night the ESPN crew made a comment that he can really get going from deep. He is bigger and longer than Tyus, his AST/TO numbers are good, his contract is high but doable and he is under team control next year. Is he a legit trade target?

[MN7725]

We have been talking about Tyus potentially. What about Tre Jones? I thought he was a bad 3 point shooter, but last night the ESPN crew made a comment that he can really get going from deep. He is bigger and longer than Tyus, his AST/TO numbers are good, his contract is high but doable and he is under team control next year. Is he a legit trade target?

Wolves have some expirings or non-guaranteed players for teams that might want to get off some money next year, don't really see Spurs wanting to get off Tre's $$ though ($9.1 mil '24-'25)

[winforlose]

We have been talking about Tyus potentially. What about Tre Jones? I thought he was a bad 3 point shooter, but last night the ESPN crew made a comment that he can really get going from deep. He is bigger and longer than Tyus, his AST/TO numbers are good, his contract is high but doable and he is under team control next year. Is he a legit trade target?

Wolves have some expirings or non-guaranteed players for teams that might want to get off some money next year, don't really see Spurs wanting to get off Tre's $$ though ($9.1 mil '24-'25)

Spurs haven’t been using him. They are trying to convert Sochan to starting PG for next year. Tre might want off. Shake has value to them, and Moore is a free look at a young player. Now the money is a problem. We would need to make a second move probably for Kyle, or just trade Kyle for Tre. The question is whether Tre is worth it?

[BlacJacMac]

We have been talking about Tyus potentially. What about Tre Jones? I thought he was a bad 3 point shooter, but last night the ESPN crew made a comment that he can really get going from deep. He is bigger and longer than Tyus, his AST/TO numbers are good, his contract is high but doable and he is under team control next year. Is he a legit trade target?

He's shooting 26% on the year and has not made more than 2 in a game this year (3x). He has 10 makes in 17 games.

He shot 29% last year on a much larger sample and still only made 3 one time and 2 six times. He made 45 in 68 games (65 starts).

Not sure how any of that is "really getting going". He's a terrible 3pt shooter.

[MN7725]

We have been talking about Tyus potentially. What about Tre Jones? I thought he was a bad 3 point shooter, but last night the ESPN crew made a comment that he can really get going from deep. He is bigger and longer than Tyus, his AST/TO numbers are good, his contract is high but doable and he is under team control next year. Is he a legit trade target?

Wolves have some expirings or non-guaranteed players for teams that might want to get off some money next year, don't really see Spurs wanting to get off Tre's $$ though ($9.1 mil '24-'25)

Spurs haven’t been using him. They are trying to convert Sochan to starting PG for next year. Tre might want off. Shake has value to them, and Moore is a free look at a young player. Now the money is a problem. We would need to make a second move probably for Kyle, or just trade Kyle for Tre. The question is whether Tre is worth it?

he's still playing 24 mpg, he's just not starting since the Spurs are prioritizing development instead of trying to win as many games as possible

so yeah, he's not really a core player for the spurs, but again, doubtful he's someone they are looking to essentially salary dump

but to answer your question, I wouldn't move KA for Tre if that was possible
and I say that as someone who would move KA for a more capable guard/wing

but they need to be someone who would be pretty likely to play in a tighter playoff rotation (8th or 9th man)
I don't think Tre would be

[winforlose]

We have been talking about Tyus potentially. What about Tre Jones? I thought he was a bad 3 point shooter, but last night the ESPN crew made a comment that he can really get going from deep. He is bigger and longer than Tyus, his AST/TO numbers are good, his contract is high but doable and he is under team control next year. Is he a legit trade target?

He's shooting 26% on the year and has not made more than 2 in a game this year (3x). He has 10 makes in 17 games.

He shot 29% last year on a much larger sample and still only made 3 one time and 2 six times. He made 45 in 68 games (65 starts).

Not sure how any of that is "really getting going". He's a terrible 3pt shooter.

That is what I thought. I know some guys look worse on paper, but this didn’t seem like that. The ESPN guy threw me. Whoever we eventually draft/sign/trade for needs to be able to floor space.

[BlacJacMac]

We have been talking about Tyus potentially. What about Tre Jones? I thought he was a bad 3 point shooter, but last night the ESPN crew made a comment that he can really get going from deep. He is bigger and longer than Tyus, his AST/TO numbers are good, his contract is high but doable and he is under team control next year. Is he a legit trade target?

He's shooting 26% on the year and has not made more than 2 in a game this year (3x). He has 10 makes in 17 games.

He shot 29% last year on a much larger sample and still only made 3 one time and 2 six times. He made 45 in 68 games (65 starts).

Not sure how any of that is "really getting going". He's a terrible 3pt shooter.

That is what I thought. I know some guys look worse on paper, but this didn’t seem like that. The ESPN guy threw me. Whoever we eventually draft/sign/trade for needs to be able to floor space.

The national media guys do so little work/research, that my guess is he either was pulling stuff out of his @ss, or he was confusing him with Tyus.

[winforlose]

He's shooting 26% on the year and has not made more than 2 in a game this year (3x). He has 10 makes in 17 games.

He shot 29% last year on a much larger sample and still only made 3 one time and 2 six times. He made 45 in 68 games (65 starts).

Not sure how any of that is "really getting going". He's a terrible 3pt shooter.

That is what I thought. I know some guys look worse on paper, but this didn’t seem like that. The ESPN guy threw me. Whoever we eventually draft/sign/trade for needs to be able to floor space.

The national media guys do so little work/research, that my guess is he either was pulling stuff out of his @ss, or he was confusing him with Tyus.

Very true. I got a kick out of the comment that KAT knew he needed to learn to shoot 3s AFTER the Rudy trade. Nevermind the fact that he already won the prior years 3 point shooting contest. Although, I do give them credit for that Slo-Mo line. In fast motion is a classic line for him.

[winforlose]

BTW, Tyus Jones dropped 20 on 8-11, 2-4 from deep with 8 assists and only 1 TO against the 76ers. If this is his upside I can see him playing with Ant, MCD, NAZ and others for years to come. Leaning more and more into Kyle and Shake for Tyus if you can secure a commitment to resign. Pay both he and Mike go into the second apron for the next two years and then adjust after that.

[BlacJacMac]

That is what I thought. I know some guys look worse on paper, but this didn’t seem like that. The ESPN guy threw me. Whoever we eventually draft/sign/trade for needs to be able to floor space.

The national media guys do so little work/research, that my guess is he either was pulling stuff out of his @ss, or he was confusing him with Tyus.

Very true. I got a kick out of the comment that KAT knew he needed to learn to shoot 3s AFTER the Rudy trade. Nevermind the fact that he already won the prior years 3 point shooting contest. Although, I do give them credit for that Slo-Mo line. In fast motion is a classic line for him.

My favorite is there are still announcers that continually refer to KAT as "Anthony-Towns" as if he has a hyphenated last name...

[winforlose]

Does anyone know how much it costs against the tax to convert Luka Garza at the trade deadline? Assuming of course Naz and Minott rookie deal of 4 years minimum.

[Klomp]

I get that. But the longer we keep this core together the better. It will also help us attract the kind of cheap talent that the Warriors and others get (ring chasers.) I agree that we have room to make moves, and hopefully TC has a few in mind.

If we’re only on the fringe of the tax, it won’t cost us one of the big players. More likely, it’s downgrading from the guys in the $5-9M range.

Repeater tax penalties can easily top 100 million. GSW is paying 193 in tax this year.

And not a single person has talked about going that deep into the tax.

The repeater tax won't turn going $5 million over into a $150 million payment. That's not what this is. The repeater tax is to deincentivize teams from going way deep into the tax, not to stop them from going into the tax at all.

[winforlose]

If we’re only on the fringe of the tax, it won’t cost us one of the big players. More likely, it’s downgrading from the guys in the $5-9M range.

Repeater tax penalties can easily top 100 million. GSW is paying 193 in tax this year.

And not a single person has talked about going that deep into the tax.

The repeater tax won't turn going $5 million over into a $150 million payment. That's not what this is. The repeater tax is to deincentivize teams from going way deep into the tax, not to stop them from going into the tax at all.

Not this year. So Rudy is under contract for 24-25 and presumably 25-26 (player option.) In 25-26 Ant, MCD, KAT, Rudy, and Naz are all under contract. To say nothing of the guys we put around them (like a starting PG.) So at this point the difference in tax might be 100 million because it is our 3rd year in the tax, instead of our second. Does that make sense?

[wolves_89]

If we’re only on the fringe of the tax, it won’t cost us one of the big players. More likely, it’s downgrading from the guys in the $5-9M range.

Repeater tax penalties can easily top 100 million. GSW is paying 193 in tax this year.

And not a single person has talked about going that deep into the tax.

The repeater tax won't turn going $5 million over into a $150 million payment. That's not what this is. The repeater tax is to deincentivize teams from going way deep into the tax, not to stop them from going into the tax at all.

It should also be noted that the repeater tax doesn't kick in until a team's been over the luxury tax line in 3 out of 4 seasons. If we avoid the luxury tax this season, then with Rudy expiring after 2025-26 it should be fairly easy to avoid the repeater tax even if we keep the core together through Gobert's contract.

[Klomp]

Not this year. So Rudy is under contract for 24-25 and presumably 25-26 (player option.) In 25-26 Ant, MCD, KAT, Rudy, and Naz are all under contract. To say nothing of the guys we put around them (like a starting PG.) So at this point the difference in tax might be 100 million because it is our 3rd year in the tax, instead of our second. Does that make sense?

I think there are a lot of assumptions being made there. Maybe they'll come true. But I want to focus more on enjoying every day of what we're seeing.

I think it's important to note too...once you get to that level as potentially an NBA champion, it's easier to get away with inserting younger, cheaper talent into the rotation. That's what Denver is doing right now

[KGdaBom]

Not this year. So Rudy is under contract for 24-25 and presumably 25-26 (player option.) In 25-26 Ant, MCD, KAT, Rudy, and Naz are all under contract. To say nothing of the guys we put around them (like a starting PG.) So at this point the difference in tax might be 100 million because it is our 3rd year in the tax, instead of our second. Does that make sense?

I think there are a lot of assumptions being made there. Maybe they'll come true. But I want to focus more on enjoying every day of what we're seeing.

I think it's important to note too...once you get to that level as potentially an NBA champion, it's easier to get away with inserting younger, cheaper talent into the rotation. That's what Denver is doing right now

Denver seems to be paying a price for that choice. Not looking nearly as good this year.

[wolves_89]

Out of curiosity I looked up what the Wolves luxury tax might look like in 2024-25 if we largely run it back. My assumptions are Milton isn't brought back, Anderson isn't re-signed, and we keep our 1st round pick which would result in 11 roster spots filled. For this I didn't account for Ant making All-NBA and increasing his new contract.

Here are some scenarios:
- The cap goes up 4.4% and the team adds 3 vet minimum deals for $189M payroll -> $33.6M luxury tax (under 2nd apron)
- The cap goes up 10% and the team adds 3 vet minimum deals for $189M payroll -> $11.3M luxury tax (under 2nd apron)
- The cap goes up 4.4% we re-sign Conley for $13M and add 2 vet min deals for $200M payroll -> $73.9M luxury tax (over 2nd apron)
- The cap goes up 10% we re-sign Conley for $13M and add 2 vet min deals for $200M payroll -> $39.2M luxury tax (right at 2nd apron)