Jordan and Pippen Plus/Minus Numbers in the 90s
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magicman1978 wrote:Any reason you always feel like being antagonistic in your posts?
Why does this always have to be a Jordan vs LeBron thing?
Your two comments are literally the two most antagonistic posts in this 4-post exchange. There are worse things in the world(even in this thread) than dry allusions.
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OhayoKD wrote:magicman1978 wrote:Any reason you always feel like being antagonistic in your posts?
Why does this always have to be a Jordan vs LeBron thing?
Your two comments are literally the two most antagonistic posts in this 4-post exchange. There are worse things in the world(even in this thread) than dry allusions.
You don't think using sarcasm in a mocking way is antagonistic, but my post is?
Anyways, I've learned my lesson. I'll just be a fly on the wall, read in the interested info and thoughts, and stay out of these discussions as most of this is over my head anyways.
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Re: Jordan and Pippen Plus/Minus Numbers in the 90s
Squared2020 wrote:Djoker wrote:Squared2020 wrote:Back to our regularly scheduled program. Some Scottie Pippen plus-minus numbers from the box score era: https://squared2020.com/2023/12/07/some-scottie-pippen-historical-plus-minus-numbers/
You read my mind. I was going to ask you to post Pippen's numbers.![]()
Regarding the MJ logs you posted the other night...
We have 63 Jordan games for 92-93 which is ~80% of his season of 78 games.
His 1993 numbers look very good. The team is +489 with him and -75 without him.
1992-93 Net Rating:
ON: +9.5
OFF: -9.9
ON-OFF: +19.4
We also have 78 Jordan games for 95-96 which is ~95% of his season of 82 games.
His 1996 numbers are obviously great. The team is +943 with him and +29 without him.
1995-96 Net Rating:
ON: +16.2
OFF: +2.2
ON-OFF: +14.0
The only thing I'd caution about with ratings here is that there are a handful of possessions that are double-counted, as substitutions can happen mid-possession due to dead balls with no transfer of possession. It happens on average ~4 times a game for each team. So if you get a weird Rating for a team in the OFF stage, that may be a symptom of a non-traditional substitution pattern.
But yeah... His 93 season is bonkers as far as differential goes. Even watching almost every game from that season back-to-back-to-back, it's crazy how the team goes into another level when he comes back onto the court. It wasn't as crazy in the 1996 season.
Well you have the exact possession count off the court. I just estimated.

What are your off ratings if you calculated them?
The 96 team was just so strong. The 93 team was really lacking by comparison looking beyond the top 4-5 guys.
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Re: Jordan and Pippen Plus/Minus Numbers in the 90s
magicman1978 wrote:OhayoKD wrote:magicman1978 wrote:Any reason you always feel like being antagonistic in your posts?
Why does this always have to be a Jordan vs LeBron thing?
Your two comments are literally the two most antagonistic posts in this 4-post exchange. There are worse things in the world(even in this thread) than dry allusions.
You don't think using sarcasm in a mocking way is antagonistic, but my post is?
It was tonally antagonistic, but my point was Jordan taking more when he makes more is not unique nor insightful on its own, so then the question becomes whether that qualifies him as a good shooter or as more of a Wade/Penny shooter (both of whom incidentally also shot threes more successfully in the postseason).
I do not mind hypothesising that Jordan could have been an adequate lower volume perimetre shooter in the modern league — although I would not assume so — but if the discussion is whether he was much of one in his time, then the answer is no.
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AEnigma wrote:magicman1978 wrote:OhayoKD wrote:Your two comments are literally the two most antagonistic posts in this 4-post exchange. There are worse things in the world(even in this thread) than dry allusions.
You don't think using sarcasm in a mocking way is antagonistic, but my post is?
It was tonally antagonistic, but my point was Jordan taking more when he makes more is not unique nor insightful on its own, so then the question becomes whether that qualifies him as a good shooter or as more of a Wade/Penny shooter (both of whom incidentally also shot threes more successfully in the postseason).
I think you're looking at it as me trying to prove he'd be a good shooter, I merely said he'd be at the very least average. He doesn't need to be much better than that to keep defenses honest. I was trying to show that If they're going to invite him to shoot, the numbers show that he can hit them.
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AEnigma wrote:Squared2020 wrote:AEnigma wrote:None of that happened. Please get in the habit of quoting people properly rather than inventing your own read on what they said.
Alright, this is the last time. Heej said he was a subpar shooter. That's a person. He played a career. He said nothing else until I pointed out data. Then it changed to specific years.
… The data that identified him as an objectively subpar shooter, yes.
He was doing you a favour by focusing on the shortened line. Excising the shortened line years is not necessary to correctly say he was below average for his career, although it is necessary when we want to talk about him as a shooter today, and it is weird that you keep insisting otherwise while also accusing others of “moving goalposts”.You said that I was lying. That's calling me a liar.
What do you want to call it when you claim people said words they did not actually say.In a post a year ago, you stated that I should never have released data and that it would be better if I was never around.
This was the comment (seeing as you continue to disregard correct representation):AEnigma wrote:I respect Squared’s work in trying to put that together, but I wish he had held back on sharing any data that was far short of usual sample standards, because this scattering of games has so far pretty much only worsened discourse.
Again, would be nice if you could show some interest in honest characterisation.I asked you what I did to you to deserve to be told that I should not exist. You sent me a long PM apologizing when you realized the magnitude of your words.
Since you're keeping this up and continuing this charade, you're done for good.
I am not the one maintaining a charade.
Here is the verbatim PM I sent:AEnigma wrote:Sorry for not being clear
Sent: Tue Dec 6, 2022 3:40 am
From: AEnigma
Recipient: Squared2020
Hey, just wanted to privately reiterate that I did not intend for those comments to be a slight at you. They were a specifically targeted slight to someone I felt was basically using your work to make bad faith arguments, and because that had been happening quite a bit recently, I really went hard at that misuse. Apologies again for causing offence; I never meant for any of that to ricochet back to you.
I will never understand why people act like none of what we write here is recorded. We can read what is said and what is not said. This is not a matter of memory.You no longer exist to me.
This “you” in your mind never existed to begin with. You are trying to character assassinate a fiction.
This is such a random beef
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magicman1978 wrote:OhayoKD wrote:magicman1978 wrote:Any reason you always feel like being antagonistic in your posts?
Why does this always have to be a Jordan vs LeBron thing?
Your two comments are literally the two most antagonistic posts in this 4-post exchange. There are worse things in the world(even in this thread) than dry allusions.
You don't think using sarcasm in a mocking way is antagonistic, but my post is?
Anyways, I've learned my lesson. I'll just be a fly on the wall, read in the interested info and thoughts, and stay out of these discussions as most of this is over my head anyways.
I think accusing a poster of always doing something is more antagonistic than sarcastically mocking a point, yes.
There has been lots of thoughts and info posted since you last posted fwiw
If you're curious, the larger context of this conversation was whether Jordan would fit better than Lebron next to ball-dominant players which seems to have come into question for some after this post:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=109473292#p109473292
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magicman1978 wrote:AEnigma wrote:magicman1978 wrote:You don't think using sarcasm in a mocking way is antagonistic, but my post is?
It was tonally antagonistic, but my point was Jordan taking more when he makes more is not unique nor insightful on its own, so then the question becomes whether that qualifies him as a good shooter or as more of a Wade/Penny shooter (both of whom incidentally also shot threes more successfully in the postseason).
I think you're looking at it as me trying to prove he'd be a good shooter, I merely said he'd be at the very least average. He doesn't need to be much better than that to keep defenses honest. I was trying to show that If they're going to invite him to shoot, the numbers show that he can hit them.
Then I guess it depends on the bar. I would say Wade and Penny and Jordan are not average shooters that far out, but they can definitely hit enough to keep defences honest, yes. Players like Barkley and Giannis are where I would say, no, defences should pretty much ignore you out there.
There is a positional element to this too of course. A centre shooting below average from 3 can still exert a good and valuable spacing effect — and this was true even before the line was established or popularised. In contrast, a point guard shooting below average from 3 is likely to be a bit of a problem: not in isolation, but in the frequency with which we would expect them to be paired with other limited spacers.
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OhayoKD wrote:magicman1978 wrote:OhayoKD wrote:Your two comments are literally the two most antagonistic posts in this 4-post exchange. There are worse things in the world(even in this thread) than dry allusions.
You don't think using sarcasm in a mocking way is antagonistic, but my post is?
Anyways, I've learned my lesson. I'll just be a fly on the wall, read in the interested info and thoughts, and stay out of these discussions as most of this is over my head anyways.
I think accusing a poster of always doing something is more antagonistic than sarcastically mocking a point, yes.
There has been lots of thoughts and info posted since you last posted fwiw
If you're curious, the larger context of this conversation was whether Jordan would fit better than Lebron next to ball-dominant players which seems to have come into question for some after this post:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=109473292#p109473292
Are you like a referee coming in and flagging me for the second offense? I guess I did get caught throwing a punch after getting a push out of bounds...
I did miss all of that discussion - was more so focused on how teams could scheme against MJ because he was a subpar 3pt shooter.
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Re: Jordan and Pippen Plus/Minus Numbers in the 90s
magicman1978 wrote:OhayoKD wrote:magicman1978 wrote:
You don't think using sarcasm in a mocking way is antagonistic, but my post is?
Anyways, I've learned my lesson. I'll just be a fly on the wall, read in the interested info and thoughts, and stay out of these discussions as most of this is over my head anyways.
I think accusing a poster of always doing something is more antagonistic than sarcastically mocking a point, yes.
There has been lots of thoughts and info posted since you last posted fwiw
If you're curious, the larger context of this conversation was whether Jordan would fit better than Lebron next to ball-dominant players which seems to have come into question for some after this post:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=109473292#p109473292
Are you like a referee coming in and flagging me for the second offense? I guess I did get caught throwing a punch after getting a push out of bounds...
I am a nuetral commenter making nuetral comments nuetrally. But also yes

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Re: Jordan and Pippen Plus/Minus Numbers in the 90s
AEnigma wrote:magicman1978 wrote:AEnigma wrote:It was tonally antagonistic, but my point was Jordan taking more when he makes more is not unique nor insightful on its own, so then the question becomes whether that qualifies him as a good shooter or as more of a Wade/Penny shooter (both of whom incidentally also shot threes more successfully in the postseason).
I think you're looking at it as me trying to prove he'd be a good shooter, I merely said he'd be at the very least average. He doesn't need to be much better than that to keep defenses honest. I was trying to show that If they're going to invite him to shoot, the numbers show that he can hit them.
Then I guess it depends on the bar. I would say Wade and Penny and Jordan are not average shooters that far out, but they can definitely hit enough to keep defences honest, yes. Players like Barkley and Giannis are where I would say, no, defences should pretty much ignore you out there.
There is a positional element to this too of course. A centre shooting below average from 3 can still exert a good and valuable spacing effect — and this was true even before the line was established or popularised. In contrast, a point guard shooting below average from 3 is likely to be a bit of a problem: not in isolation, but in the frequency with which we would expect them to be paired with other limited spacers.
Isn't the bar just keeping defenses honest? I guess I don't know what ways you can scheme against him to take advantage of his 3pt shooting. I think he'd be better than both Penny and Wade. Wade, even 15-20 years later didn't shoot the 3 more than MJ did from 90-93. Jordan has two seasons in his prime shooting more than 1.3 3pa a game - he took 3 in 1990, hitting 37.6% a game and 2.9 in 93 hitting 35.2% a game. Wade peaked at 31.7% in 2009. Pretty drastic difference from long mid range too. Jordan was probably close to 10% better from long mid-range than Penny and Wade too.
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I do not disagree, I am saying those are the analogies which come to mind when discussing a player who did not really take threes but tended to take them more in the postseason and did reasonably well in games where he did.
If your bar is keeping defences honest then yeah I would say most of these names qualify at least at a base level.
If your bar is keeping defences honest then yeah I would say most of these names qualify at least at a base level.
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Re: Jordan and Pippen Plus/Minus Numbers in the 90s
Djoker wrote:Squared2020 wrote:Back to our regularly scheduled program. Some Scottie Pippen plus-minus numbers from the box score era: https://squared2020.com/2023/12/07/some-scottie-pippen-historical-plus-minus-numbers/
You read my mind. I was going to ask you to post Pippen's numbers.![]()
Regarding the MJ logs you posted the other night...
We have 63 Jordan games for 92-93 which is ~80% of his season of 78 games.
His 1993 numbers look very good. The team is +489 with him and -75 without him.
1992-93 Net Rating:
ON: +9.5
OFF: -9.9
ON-OFF: +19.4
We also have 78 Jordan games for 95-96 which is ~95% of his season of 82 games.
His 1996 numbers are obviously great. The team is +943 with him and +29 without him.
1995-96 Net Rating:
ON: +16.2
OFF: +2.2
ON-OFF: +14.0
I didn’t realize until seeing this post that Squared had put up so much more data on the 1992-1993 season! I’ll need to eventually update that on my thread on Jordan’s on-off numbers, since there were only 12 games for that season back when I did that thread.
Squared2020 wrote:.
Kudos to you for adding so much to the data we have! As I noted above, I didn’t realize you’ve now done so much more on 1992-1993 than you had done even just a few months ago. Very time-intensive work I’m sure, so I really appreciate it. And, given some of what I’ve seen in this thread and elsewhere, I also want to emphasize that I think there’s a lot of people who greatly appreciate your work (including me), and that the minority of deeply unpleasant people you’ve encountered here probably discourage engaging in the forums at all, but they definitely do not represent most people’s attitude to your fantastic (and extremely time-intensive) contributions.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Also, on the substance, I guess I’ve never really bought the notion of judging three-point percentages from years where people barely shot threes as being particularly meaningful. It just wasn’t a big part of the game, so guys didn’t practice it even remotely as much. Some guys did it more than others, and of course some had higher percentages than others, but proficiency at three-point shots back in the 1980s or 1990s doesn’t really tell us a whole lot about how well someone would shoot the three-point shot if they practiced it as a major part of their game all the time. Even for guys whose percentages when they did shoot it back then were not very good, we don’t really know what it’d be like in an environment like today, because we don’t know how much they’d improve with more practice. People have very different returns on practice time than each other, so someone can definitely be worse at something when both have very little practice but better once they do practice a lot—indeed, that’s the sort of thing we’d expect from really top players, who often have a superior mental approach to practicing and learning things and therefore are able to improve themselves more than others (that’s part of why they become great in the first place!).
So, what would Michael Jordan have been like as a three-point shooter if it were emphasized more? Who knows! We obviously have seen enough to know he’s not Shaq or Ben Simmons, and I think we’ve seen enough to know he couldn’t have been Steph Curry either. But we don’t know much more. Maybe with more practice of the three he doesn’t improve at all, and he would’ve still only been a 30-33% three-point shooter. Or maybe in today’s era he’d have taken an intense and effective approach to practicing and improving on the three (as he did with most things) and have made himself a legitimately elite three-point shooter. Or maybe it’s something in the middle. We have little idea, so I don’t really see much point in fashioning an argument about an assumption on this.
The other related thing I’d note is that we don’t know if practicing the three more would have made Jordan a better player overall. Maybe he practices it a lot and improves at it and becomes an elite three-point shooter. That’d be great! But does that mean he’s practicing and improving other skills less? Maybe! Would that be better overall? Hard to say. And this is part of why making portability arguments about today’s three-heavy NBA strikes me as not very helpful. We really don’t have a great idea how good past players would be at the three-ball in an era where it was really emphasized, nor do we know how much an emphasis on the three would’ve ended up lessening their other skills that we saw back then.
So, what would Michael Jordan have been like as a three-point shooter if it were emphasized more? Who knows! We obviously have seen enough to know he’s not Shaq or Ben Simmons, and I think we’ve seen enough to know he couldn’t have been Steph Curry either. But we don’t know much more. Maybe with more practice of the three he doesn’t improve at all, and he would’ve still only been a 30-33% three-point shooter. Or maybe in today’s era he’d have taken an intense and effective approach to practicing and improving on the three (as he did with most things) and have made himself a legitimately elite three-point shooter. Or maybe it’s something in the middle. We have little idea, so I don’t really see much point in fashioning an argument about an assumption on this.
The other related thing I’d note is that we don’t know if practicing the three more would have made Jordan a better player overall. Maybe he practices it a lot and improves at it and becomes an elite three-point shooter. That’d be great! But does that mean he’s practicing and improving other skills less? Maybe! Would that be better overall? Hard to say. And this is part of why making portability arguments about today’s three-heavy NBA strikes me as not very helpful. We really don’t have a great idea how good past players would be at the three-ball in an era where it was really emphasized, nor do we know how much an emphasis on the three would’ve ended up lessening their other skills that we saw back then.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Sorry things got heated with (yet another!) LeBron//Jordan debate. It's funny how people get so invested they chose to be disrespectful
I
It would be interesting to see how those teams would perform with the Jordans switched. My impression is that Jordan became more midrange oriented in 96 than 93 and his defensive gambling matured a bit, though I haven't looked too closely at any 93 vs 96 film recently. I wonder, does a more midrange oriented game help with the spacing of the 96 team, which might otherwise be a little more spacing challenged? I'm mostly just spitballing here -- the added value from a 3-year-younger Jordan would probably be worth taking anyway -- but it is interesting to consider how the evolution of a player might influence their fit with their team.
Re: On-off, I just want to add that there would absolutely be at least one more RealGM member after Djoker interested in seeing the ON-Off data.
We can definitely do the sort of thing Djoker did by estimating the team's possessions with the player off, but it would of course be more accurate to use the actual possession data. If you do end up writing a script for the On-Off, I would definitely be interested in seeing ON-Off as a new column in either your 'Some X Historical Plus Minus Numbers' articles or in your '19XX NBA RAPM' articles. If we did have the ON-OFF, we should have all the data to start estimating Augmented Plus Minus (although I haven't been able to successfully reproduce Thinking Basketball's numbers from the formula yet... there's a bit of ambiguity for what units he used as the inputs). Presumably finding the script would take a fair amount of work though, so no worries if not!
Edit:

I would probably expect 93 Jordan to have a better On/Off than 96 Jordan anyway, but I would bet some of this can be attributed to diminishing returns on better teams. Like you say, 96 had ~7 solid guys instead of 5 for 93. And me personally, I'd probably take a lot of the 96 guys (96 Pippen > 93 Pippen. 96 Rodman > 93 Grant. 96 Kukoc is a better 6th man IMO than anyone 93 had, and perhaps like Iguodala for the Warriors, I'd probably have Kukoc as one of their 5 most valuable players even though he was coming off the bench. etc.).Squared2020 wrote:Djoker wrote:
Well you have the exact possession count off the court. I just estimated.![]()
What are your off ratings if you calculated them?
The 96 team was just so strong. The 93 team was really lacking by comparison looking beyond the top 4-5 guys.
Argh, I do have them, but I'd have to get back to where I have the data available and write a script for that.
But you're right, the 93 team was much more lacking than the 96 team in terms of teammate strength. That said, Scott Williams did a serviceable job as the team's sixth man in 93. Bill was already starting to fade into the end of his career and had a good game every so often. Williams was such as "you never know what you're going to get." At one point in February/March, the team kept rotating Perdue, King, and Williams as the sixth man. Stacey King had a couple really good games late in the season. If I recall correctly, Perdue had one monster game as far as points scored and disrupting the opponent on defense. But nothing was consistent for those three.
BJ's shooting was a pleasant surprise for the 93 season. His eFG+ took a big jump that season as he increased his 3PT volume by ~10% over expectation (expected 115 attempts, took 139) and maintained it at 45%. Read that as he didn't have as many open jumpers as previous seasons as a bench player and started getting targeted on defensive rotations (this put more strain on Horace Grant as a midrange shooter), but maintained his FG%. That's impressive.
The 96 team was much tougher. They had 7 solid guys instead of 5. Wennington was a bit of struggle with that team, but could be viewed as on-par with Will Perdue/Stacey King of 93.
It would be interesting to see how those teams would perform with the Jordans switched. My impression is that Jordan became more midrange oriented in 96 than 93 and his defensive gambling matured a bit, though I haven't looked too closely at any 93 vs 96 film recently. I wonder, does a more midrange oriented game help with the spacing of the 96 team, which might otherwise be a little more spacing challenged? I'm mostly just spitballing here -- the added value from a 3-year-younger Jordan would probably be worth taking anyway -- but it is interesting to consider how the evolution of a player might influence their fit with their team.
Re: On-off, I just want to add that there would absolutely be at least one more RealGM member after Djoker interested in seeing the ON-Off data.

Edit:
That's almost a full season for 93 and 96 -- seriously exciting stuff!!Squared2020 wrote:1992: 71 games
1993: 79 games
1995: Don't have off hand
1996: 81 games