Trade Talk (Part 14): 2023-24 Edition

[KGdaBom]

Out of curiosity I looked up what the Wolves luxury tax might look like in 2024-25 if we largely run it back. My assumptions are Milton isn't brought back, Anderson isn't re-signed, and we keep our 1st round pick which would result in 11 roster spots filled. For this I didn't account for Ant making All-NBA and increasing his new contract.

Here are some scenarios:
- The cap goes up 4.4% and the team adds 3 vet minimum deals for $189M payroll -> $33.6M luxury tax (under 2nd apron)
- The cap goes up 10% and the team adds 3 vet minimum deals for $189M payroll -> $11.3M luxury tax (under 2nd apron)
- The cap goes up 4.4% we re-sign Conley for $13M and add 2 vet min deals for $200M payroll -> $73.9M luxury tax (over 2nd apron)
- The cap goes up 10% we re-sign Conley for $13M and add 2 vet min deals for $200M payroll -> $39.2M luxury tax (right at 2nd apron)

Thanks.

[BlacJacMac]

Not this year. So Rudy is under contract for 24-25 and presumably 25-26 (player option.) In 25-26 Ant, MCD, KAT, Rudy, and Naz are all under contract. To say nothing of the guys we put around them (like a starting PG.) So at this point the difference in tax might be 100 million because it is our 3rd year in the tax, instead of our second. Does that make sense?

I think there are a lot of assumptions being made there. Maybe they'll come true. But I want to focus more on enjoying every day of what we're seeing.

I think it's important to note too...once you get to that level as potentially an NBA champion, it's easier to get away with inserting younger, cheaper talent into the rotation. That's what Denver is doing right now

Denver seems to be paying a price for that choice. Not looking nearly as good this year.

Their 2nd best player has only played in 9 games.

They're 7-2 with him, 7-6 without.

[KGdaBom]

I think there are a lot of assumptions being made there. Maybe they'll come true. But I want to focus more on enjoying every day of what we're seeing.

I think it's important to note too...once you get to that level as potentially an NBA champion, it's easier to get away with inserting younger, cheaper talent into the rotation. That's what Denver is doing right now

Denver seems to be paying a price for that choice. Not looking nearly as good this year.

Their 2nd best player has only played in 9 games.

They're 7-2 with him, 7-6 without.

Interesting.

[Klomp]

I think there are a lot of assumptions being made there. Maybe they'll come true. But I want to focus more on enjoying every day of what we're seeing.

I think it's important to note too...once you get to that level as potentially an NBA champion, it's easier to get away with inserting younger, cheaper talent into the rotation. That's what Denver is doing right now

Denver seems to be paying a price for that choice. Not looking nearly as good this year.

Their 2nd best player has only played in 9 games.

They're 7-2 with him, 7-6 without.

And along with that, people have been critiquing our roster without the services of Jaden McDaniels at full capacity for most of the year.

McDaniels played 30+ minutes in 49 of 89 total games last year (10 DNPs).
This year? Played 30+ minutes in 3 of 20 total games in 2023-24 (9 DNPs)

[Klomp]

BTW, Tyus Jones dropped 20 on 8-11, 2-4 from deep with 8 assists and only 1 TO against the 76ers. If this is his upside I can see him playing with Ant, MCD, NAZ and others for years to come. Leaning more and more into Kyle and Shake for Tyus if you can secure a commitment to resign. Pay both he and Mike go into the second apron for the next two years and then adjust after that.

For whatever it's worth, Doogie has said recently that he believes the asking price for Tyus would require a young guy, possibly even Leonard Miller.

Personally, I am just looking at the best player(s) I can get with Milton, Anderson, Moore, maybe Minott, and dangling our two 2nds (I don't think we can feasibly trade our 1st at the deadline).

[winforlose]

BTW, Tyus Jones dropped 20 on 8-11, 2-4 from deep with 8 assists and only 1 TO against the 76ers. If this is his upside I can see him playing with Ant, MCD, NAZ and others for years to come. Leaning more and more into Kyle and Shake for Tyus if you can secure a commitment to resign. Pay both he and Mike go into the second apron for the next two years and then adjust after that.

For whatever it's worth, Doogie has said recently that he believes the asking price for Tyus would require a young guy, possibly even Leonard Miller.

Personally, I am just looking at the best player(s) I can get with Milton, Anderson, Moore, maybe Minott, and dangling our two 2nds (I don't think we can feasibly trade our 1st at the deadline).

Not allowed to trade our first until after we make the selection. Then we can move him on draft night or anytime after. We cannot afford to include any young player other than Garza without going into the tax. Anderson, Milton, and Garza is doable, but then we must sign a two way player to a contract 13 days later. We would poach the best G league player and then convert them. Probably a PF.

[Klomp]

Who is at a crossroads? What middling team could potentially start a fire sale midseason, or at least try to shake things up? Those are the assets we need to be honing in on if we are taking these trade discussions seriously as a fan base.

Here's some teams that stick out to me:
-Chicago Bulls
-Detroit Pistons
-Los Angeles Clippers
-Memphis Grizzlies
-Portland Trail Blazers
-San Antonio Spurs
-Utah Jazz
-Washington Wizards

[Klomp]

We cannot afford to include any young player other than Garza without going into the tax.

This is patently and unequivocally false. You are painting the salary picture with broad strokes, when a finer look is what's important in order to maximize our cap space.

For example, we cannot afford to trade away Wendell Moore Jr ($2,421,720) and get Bones Hyland ($2,306,400) in return, that's what you are saying.

[Klomp]

Not allowed to trade our first until after we make the selection.

While the general idea is correct, there is an exception. We could trade our 1st away at the deadline if we got another unprotected 2024 1st in return. The Stepien rule is not tied to our own 1st.

[winforlose]

We cannot afford to include any young player other than Garza without going into the tax.

This is patently and unequivocally false. You are painting the salary picture with broad strokes, when a finer look is what's important in order to maximize our cap space.

For example, we cannot afford to trade away Wendell Moore Jr ($2,421,720) and get Bones Hyland ($2,306,400) in return, that's what you are saying.

I meant in a Tyus trade. You need 14 roster guys. If we go down to 12 we need to resign two. The young guys are cheaper than vet minimums. Thus we spend too much on the replacement. Garza is the exception because he doesn’t count against the cap or tax.

[Neeva]

BTW, Tyus Jones dropped 20 on 8-11, 2-4 from deep with 8 assists and only 1 TO against the 76ers. If this is his upside I can see him playing with Ant, MCD, NAZ and others for years to come. Leaning more and more into Kyle and Shake for Tyus if you can secure a commitment to resign. Pay both he and Mike go into the second apron for the next two years and then adjust after that.

For whatever it's worth, Doogie has said recently that he believes the asking price for Tyus would require a young guy, possibly even Leonard Miller.

Personally, I am just looking at the best player(s) I can get with Milton, Anderson, Moore, maybe Minott, and dangling our two 2nds (I don't think we can feasibly trade our 1st at the deadline).

Zero chance I gave up Leonard Miller for Tyus. have people seen Tyus play lately? Wizards fans are ready to trade him away just like Memphis fans before with his play in the playoff series against the Lakers.

We need a cheap player with big potential more than an overpaid role player that may or may not show up at playoff time.

[KGdaBom]

Denver seems to be paying a price for that choice. Not looking nearly as good this year.

Their 2nd best player has only played in 9 games.

They're 7-2 with him, 7-6 without.

And along with that, people have been critiquing our roster without the services of Jaden McDaniels at full capacity for most of the year.

McDaniels played 30+ minutes in 49 of 89 total games last year (10 DNPs).
This year? Played 30+ minutes in 3 of 20 total games in 2023-24 (9 DNPs)

Great point. We should have him back soon.

[KGdaBom]

BTW, Tyus Jones dropped 20 on 8-11, 2-4 from deep with 8 assists and only 1 TO against the 76ers. If this is his upside I can see him playing with Ant, MCD, NAZ and others for years to come. Leaning more and more into Kyle and Shake for Tyus if you can secure a commitment to resign. Pay both he and Mike go into the second apron for the next two years and then adjust after that.

For whatever it's worth, Doogie has said recently that he believes the asking price for Tyus would require a young guy, possibly even Leonard Miller.

Personally, I am just looking at the best player(s) I can get with Milton, Anderson, Moore, maybe Minott, and dangling our two 2nds (I don't think we can feasibly trade our 1st at the deadline).

I consider Miller almost untouchable. That is how good I think he is. An established star that we could somehow fit in considering salary certainly, but nothing less.

[KGdaBom]

Who is at a crossroads? What middling team could potentially start a fire sale midseason, or at least try to shake things up? Those are the assets we need to be honing in on if we are taking these trade discussions seriously as a fan base.

Here's some teams that stick out to me:
-Chicago Bulls
-Detroit Pistons
-Los Angeles Clippers
-Memphis Grizzlies
-Portland Trail Blazers
-San Antonio Spurs
-Utah Jazz
-Washington Wizards

Clippers are looking real good lately. James Harden has returned to form. They don't stick out to me unless you know something I don't and you probably do. Please enlighten me. Or is it just a vibe you have?

[shrink]

Does anyone know how much it costs against the tax to convert Luka Garza at the trade deadline? Assuming of course Naz and Minott rookie deal of 4 years minimum.

It would be the pro-rated cost of the contract he’s offered, which I assume would be the vet min. Since he is on the third year of his NBA service, the cost to us would be the standard vet min ($2,019,706). The Trade Deadline comes with only about 30% of the season remaining, so 30% of $2 mil is about $600,000.

I suspect that with shortened playoff rosters, it’s pretty unlikely we convert him to make him eligible for the playoffs. More likely (this is my supposition), we’d do it to use him because we felt he had value as a trade chip if we put him on a Hinkie Special. He doesn’t have great trade value, but maybe a team would give us a 2nd.

It’s also possible we reach a point financially where we know we aren’t making any moves, and we bump him up to an NBA contract to reward him for his hard work, and always being the first man off the bench to slap hands with his teammates. Teams can sign players on the final day of the season, and this gives them some team control over the summer.

[shrink]

Who is at a crossroads? What middling team could potentially start a fire sale midseason, or at least try to shake things up? Those are the assets we need to be honing in on if we are taking these trade discussions seriously as a fan base.

Here's some teams that stick out to me:
-Chicago Bulls
-Detroit Pistons
-Los Angeles Clippers
-Memphis Grizzlies
-Portland Trail Blazers
-San Antonio Spurs
-Utah Jazz
-Washington Wizards

Clippers are looking real good lately. James Harden has returned to form. They don't stick out to me unless you know something I don't and you probably do. Please enlighten me. Or is it just a vibe you have?

The Clippers owner, Steve Ballmer, has been very willing to spend the last few years, but the team is $34 mil over the lux, and this year the lux tax penalty alone would be $142 mil. This is the effect of the repeater tax.

For comparison, we are paying $163 mil for our team, but Ballmer paying over $340 mil if he doesn’t cut salary. Maybe money means nothing to him, but it’s quite possible that to keep this team together at this price, he has to see a higher level of success.

[Klomp]

Who is at a crossroads? What middling team could potentially start a fire sale midseason, or at least try to shake things up? Those are the assets we need to be honing in on if we are taking these trade discussions seriously as a fan base.

Here's some teams that stick out to me:
-Chicago Bulls
-Detroit Pistons
-Los Angeles Clippers
-Memphis Grizzlies
-Portland Trail Blazers
-San Antonio Spurs
-Utah Jazz
-Washington Wizards

Clippers are looking real good lately. James Harden has returned to form. They don't stick out to me unless you know something I don't and you probably do. Please enlighten me. Or is it just a vibe you have?

It's largely a vibe. I can't escape the feeling about Bones, and I feel like they could have interest in any of Milton, Moore, McLaughlin or Anderson (don't worry, Anderson would not be for just Hyland).

[Klomp]

BTW, Tyus Jones dropped 20 on 8-11, 2-4 from deep with 8 assists and only 1 TO against the 76ers. If this is his upside I can see him playing with Ant, MCD, NAZ and others for years to come. Leaning more and more into Kyle and Shake for Tyus if you can secure a commitment to resign. Pay both he and Mike go into the second apron for the next two years and then adjust after that.

For whatever it's worth, Doogie has said recently that he believes the asking price for Tyus would require a young guy, possibly even Leonard Miller.

Personally, I am just looking at the best player(s) I can get with Milton, Anderson, Moore, maybe Minott, and dangling our two 2nds (I don't think we can feasibly trade our 1st at the deadline).

I consider Miller almost untouchable. That is how good I think he is. An established star that we could somehow fit in considering salary certainly, but nothing less.

I agree. I was simply passing along what I heard. Ultimately, if it's true, I think it's a negotiating ploy that they would eventually back away from, but I think it's important to note where we are starting from.

[shrink]

I have been stressing lately how important it is for our team to not exceed the lux threshold this season to start the repeater, and how difficult it is to make a 2-for-1 deal because we’d have to add the salary of a vet min player to get back to our 14 man minimum roster limit. However, for those other bean counters, this isn’t quite accurate.

The rule of thumb for contending teams is to fill the end of the bench with vet min players, because you can add usable players to the roster that can help in case of emergencies. Even a ten year vet only costs a team what a two year vet would cost. But for our team, where every dollar is important to stay under the lux, you can fill those spots with cheaper players, with one or even no NBA experience.

Years of Experience 0 $1,119,563
Years of Experience 1 $1,801,769
Years of Experience 2 $2,019,706

If we sign some bum off the street with no NBA experience, we could use his pro-rated salary for the newly created roster spot.

Maybe it’s easier to show an example:

Milton $5 + Brown $4 for Tre Jones $9.9 + 0 Yr Min Player $0.9 = MIN ADDS $1.8 mil salary.

This trade needs more value to the Spurs, but I wanted to demonstrate a financially legal example. The 0 YR MIN player is only $0.9 because he’s only being paid for 75% of the season, and that number will decline further, the longer we wait.


Lastly, we can generate $1 mil more under the lux by trading Wendell Moore Jr to a team with cap space, and then signing a Zero Year Minimum guy as well.

[Klomp]

Since a bulk of the trade talks are centering around the tax implications, I think it's worth considering that we do with Kyle Anderson what we did with D'Angelo Russell.....split him up. I know it's a little more difficult because of his smaller number, but it can absolutely be done. If we are thinking Kyle would otherwise be back, start penciling him in at $10M for that roster spot. So if you can replace him for a couple of guys around $4M this year and maybe only one of them is on the books next year, that's a way to save money going forward. There's around $6M off the potential books.

Milton (and even Brown) can be added in if we need a few more dollars to make a deal like this happen.