Trade Talk (Part 14): 2023-24 Edition

[Klomp]

I have been stressing lately how important it is for our team to not exceed the lux threshold this season to start the repeater, and how difficult it is to make a 2-for-1 deal because we’d have to add the salary of a vet min player to get back to our 14 man minimum roster limit. However, for those other bean counters, this isn’t quite accurate.

The rule of thumb for contending teams is to fill the end of the bench with vet min players, because you can add usable players to the roster that can help in case of emergencies. Even a ten year vet only costs a team what a two year vet would cost. But for our team, where every dollar is important to stay under the lux, you can fill those spots with cheaper players, with one or even no NBA experience.

Years of Experience 0 $1,119,563
Years of Experience 1 $1,801,769
Years of Experience 2 $2,019,706

If we sign some bum off the street with no NBA experience, we could use his pro-rated salary for the newly created roster spot.

I think it's also worth pointing out that Jaylen Clark could easily be that guy. Garza could be "promoted" too, but he would be a little more expensive.

[andyhop]

Since a bulk of the trade talks are centering around the tax implications, I think it's worth considering that we do with Kyle Anderson what we did with D'Angelo Russell.....split him up. I know it's a little more difficult because of his smaller number, but it can absolutely be done. If we are thinking Kyle would otherwise be back, start penciling him in at $10M for that roster spot. So if you can replace him for a couple of guys around $4M this year and maybe only one of them is on the books next year, that's a way to save money going forward. There's around $6M off the potential books.

Milton (and even Brown) can be added in if we need a few more dollars to make a deal like this happen.

I think Anderson is almost certainly gone next year, so adding any salary by trading him is going to be unlikely

[Klomp]

Since a bulk of the trade talks are centering around the tax implications, I think it's worth considering that we do with Kyle Anderson what we did with D'Angelo Russell.....split him up. I know it's a little more difficult because of his smaller number, but it can absolutely be done. If we are thinking Kyle would otherwise be back, start penciling him in at $10M for that roster spot. So if you can replace him for a couple of guys around $4M this year and maybe only one of them is on the books next year, that's a way to save money going forward. There's around $6M off the potential books.

Milton (and even Brown) can be added in if we need a few more dollars to make a deal like this happen.

I think Anderson is almost certainly gone next year, so adding any salary by trading him is going to be unlikely

I think he's only gone because of what is a likely $10M price tag (MLE still seems reasonable). So coming in less than that and/or with multiple players instead of one is a plus.

[Klomp]

I have been stressing lately how important it is for our team to not exceed the lux threshold this season to start the repeater, and how difficult it is to make a 2-for-1 deal because we’d have to add the salary of a vet min player to get back to our 14 man minimum roster limit. However, for those other bean counters, this isn’t quite accurate.

The rule of thumb for contending teams is to fill the end of the bench with vet min players, because you can add usable players to the roster that can help in case of emergencies. Even a ten year vet only costs a team what a two year vet would cost. But for our team, where every dollar is important to stay under the lux, you can fill those spots with cheaper players, with one or even no NBA experience.

Years of Experience 0 $1,119,563
Years of Experience 1 $1,801,769
Years of Experience 2 $2,019,706

If we sign some bum off the street with no NBA experience, we could use his pro-rated salary for the newly created roster spot.

Maybe it’s easier to show an example:

Milton $5 + Brown $4 for Tre Jones $9.9 + 0 Yr Min Player $0.9 = MIN ADDS $1.8 mil salary.

This trade needs more value to the Spurs, but I wanted to demonstrate a financially legal example. The 0 YR MIN player is only $0.9 because he’s only being paid for 75% of the season, and that number will decline further, the longer we wait.


Lastly, we can generate $1 mil more under the lux by trading Wendell Moore Jr to a team with cap space, and then signing a Zero Year Minimum guy as well.

Another example:

Kyle Anderson ($9,219,512)
Shake Milton ($5,000,000)
Troy Brown ($4,000,000)
for
Tyus Jones ($14,000,000)

Sign:
Rookie Minimum ($1,119,563) *Jaylen Clark
Two-year Minimum ($2,019,706) *Luka Garza

Outgoing Total: $18,219,512
Incoming Total: $17,139,269

[winforlose]

1. I am not advocating overpaying for Tyus. I feel like he would fit well with the starting lineup when Mike is unavailable/resting. Anderson, Shake, and a 2nd is more than fair (not a high one from this year, a future one. If they say no, so be it. But, Tyus would want to be here, and could promise not to resign with any other team to scuttle other trades.

2. Garza makes a ton of sense on our roster. If KAT or Naz is hurt he can play backup C and the other one can play starting PF with Miller as their backup. The rotation would be Mike, Ant, MCD, KAT, Rudy, second line TBD, NAW, TBJ, Miller, and Naz. 3rd string JMAC, Moore, Minott, and Garza.

3. If not Tyus there are other guards. But be honest, do you trust Kyle in a playoff rotation if he won’t shoot the 3? Especially with his reduced paint efficiency and inconsistent free throwing?

[winforlose]

Since a bulk of the trade talks are centering around the tax implications, I think it's worth considering that we do with Kyle Anderson what we did with D'Angelo Russell.....split him up. I know it's a little more difficult because of his smaller number, but it can absolutely be done. If we are thinking Kyle would otherwise be back, start penciling him in at $10M for that roster spot. So if you can replace him for a couple of guys around $4M this year and maybe only one of them is on the books next year, that's a way to save money going forward. There's around $6M off the potential books.

Milton (and even Brown) can be added in if we need a few more dollars to make a deal like this happen.

I think Anderson is almost certainly gone next year, so adding any salary by trading him is going to be unlikely

I think he's only gone because of what is a likely $10M price tag (MLE still seems reasonable). So coming in less than that and/or with multiple players instead of one is a plus.

Anderson has underperformed and next year I doubt he would have a rotation spot. Miller should be ready to replace him, if he isn’t already. Kyle was doomed with the us the moment he decided to stop shooting 3s. We need floor spacing, especially when he is sharing the floor with Rudy.

[Neeva]

1. I am not advocating overpaying for Tyus. I feel like he would fit well with the starting lineup when Mike is unavailable/resting. Anderson, Shake, and a 2nd is more than fair (not a high one from this year, a future one. If they say no, so be it. But, Tyus would want to be here, and could promise not to resign with any other team to scuttle other trades.

2. Garza makes a ton of sense on our roster. If KAT or Naz is hurt he can play backup C and the other one can play starting PF with Miller as their backup. The rotation would be Mike, Ant, MCD, KAT, Rudy, second line TBD, NAW, TBJ, Miller, and Naz. 3rd string JMAC, Moore, Minott, and Garza.

3. If not Tyus there are other guards. But be honest, do you trust Kyle in a playoff rotation if he won’t shoot the 3? Especially with his reduced paint efficiency and inconsistent free throwing?

Kyle was a non entity in playoffs against Nuggets. I expect pretty much the same this season and I am okay with Connelly trading him at the deadline.

[Klomp]

By the way, I'd be lying if I said I didn't still have one eye on the Knicks for future trades...I don't know that I want to break up the band midseason though.

But here's a question...could we still get that deal done in the summer? It's more tricky, but I think it's actually possible.

1. Roster holds go away, making it easier to negotiate blockbuster trades.
2. Immanuel Quickley is a RFA, but the Timberwolves should be the most attractive option for any young point guard if we're not talking about cap restraints...especially a PG that can be a good scoring option and plays defense. I will always bet on Kentucky guards.
3. The worry around matching salaries due to Towns' salary jumping $13 million somewhat negated by the coming contract jump for Quickley.
4. Evan Fournier's team option is a sneaky salary filler. We talk about it before the deadline as an ending contract, but we can still work with it if we wait until the summer. He shouldn't be disgruntled here, playing with Gobert.
5. I believe they have pretty good draft capital to include.
6. Clear up just enough room to maybe bring back Kyle and/or Mike, while also getting away from the second apron.

[Neeva]

I think Connelly only trades Kat if he underperforms in the playoffs again. Hopefully wolves win the title with Ant and Jaden (and Rudy) leading the way anyway.

[Klomp]

Random side-note: The draft pick used to select Immanuel Quickley was originally owned by Denver. Connelly traded it to OKC the previous summer in the sign-and-trade for Jerami Grant...the Knicks got him in the draft night three-way convoluted mess that sent Ricky Rubio, Jaden McDaniels and Leandro Bolmaro to Minnesota and sent Aleksej Pokusevski to Oklahoma City.

[winforlose]

By the way, I'd be lying if I said I didn't still have one eye on the Knicks for future trades...I don't know that I want to break up the band midseason though.

But here's a question...could we still get that deal done in the summer? It's more tricky, but I think it's actually possible.

1. Roster holds go away, making it easier to negotiate blockbuster trades.
2. Immanuel Quickley is a RFA, but the Timberwolves should be the most attractive option for any young point guard if we're not talking about cap restraints...especially a PG that can be a good scoring option and plays defense. I will always bet on Kentucky guards.
3. The worry around matching salaries due to Towns' salary jumping $13 million somewhat negated by the coming contract jump for Quickley.
4. Evan Fournier's team option is a sneaky salary filler. We talk about it before the deadline as an ending contract, but we can still work with it if we wait until the summer. He shouldn't be disgruntled here, playing with Gobert.
5. I believe they have pretty good draft capital to include.
6. Clear up just enough room to maybe bring back Kyle and/or Mike, while also getting away from the second apron.

Are you talking about trading KAT? If so we can do so much better. He is a 50/40/90 and playing the best defense of his career. NYK doesn’t have the player talent we would need back. I would need the specifics of the deal you have in mind, but I would want at least 2 starter level players plus a ton of draft capital.

[KGdaBom]

By the way, I'd be lying if I said I didn't still have one eye on the Knicks for future trades...I don't know that I want to break up the band midseason though.

But here's a question...could we still get that deal done in the summer? It's more tricky, but I think it's actually possible.

1. Roster holds go away, making it easier to negotiate blockbuster trades.
2. Immanuel Quickley is a RFA, but the Timberwolves should be the most attractive option for any young point guard if we're not talking about cap restraints...especially a PG that can be a good scoring option and plays defense. I will always bet on Kentucky guards.
3. The worry around matching salaries due to Towns' salary jumping $13 million somewhat negated by the coming contract jump for Quickley.
4. Evan Fournier's team option is a sneaky salary filler. We talk about it before the deadline as an ending contract, but we can still work with it if we wait until the summer. He shouldn't be disgruntled here, playing with Gobert.
5. I believe they have pretty good draft capital to include.
6. Clear up just enough room to maybe bring back Kyle and/or Mike, while also getting away from the second apron.

If you're proposing trading KAT with the primary player coming back being Quickley I hate it. I mean really hate it. IF IF IF we were going to trade KAT to the Knicks Brunson would have to be the primary piece coming here.

[winforlose]

By the way, I'd be lying if I said I didn't still have one eye on the Knicks for future trades...I don't know that I want to break up the band midseason though.

But here's a question...could we still get that deal done in the summer? It's more tricky, but I think it's actually possible.

1. Roster holds go away, making it easier to negotiate blockbuster trades.
2. Immanuel Quickley is a RFA, but the Timberwolves should be the most attractive option for any young point guard if we're not talking about cap restraints...especially a PG that can be a good scoring option and plays defense. I will always bet on Kentucky guards.
3. The worry around matching salaries due to Towns' salary jumping $13 million somewhat negated by the coming contract jump for Quickley.
4. Evan Fournier's team option is a sneaky salary filler. We talk about it before the deadline as an ending contract, but we can still work with it if we wait until the summer. He shouldn't be disgruntled here, playing with Gobert.
5. I believe they have pretty good draft capital to include.
6. Clear up just enough room to maybe bring back Kyle and/or Mike, while also getting away from the second apron.

If you're proposing trading KAT with the primary player coming back being Quickley I hate it. I mean really hate it. IF IF IF we were going to trade KAT to the Knicks Brunson would have to be the primary piece coming here.

Plus 3 picks and more. He is a legit all NBA center.

[winforlose]

This is raw and not fully developed, but what about a 3 team deal that sends us Markkanen and Brunson for KAT?

[Domejandro]

This is raw and not fully developed, but what about a 3 team deal that sends us Markkanen and Brunson for KAT?

I don't see any reasonable way that Minnesota can bridge the gap on value without giving up another premier player.

[winforlose]

This is raw and not fully developed, but what about a 3 team deal that sends us Markkanen and Brunson for KAT?

I don't see any reasonable way that Minnesota can bridge the gap on value without giving up another premier player.

You’re probably right. I haven’t had much luck making it work for all 3 teams.

[Klomp]

New York’s defense finished the season exactly 12 points per 100 possessions better when Quickley was on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass. That was the largest differential for any qualifying NBA player — by far. And look at the company behind him. Second place (among players who ran for at least 1,500 minutes this season) was former NBA Defensive Player of the Year Draymond Green, who was more than two points per 100 behind Quickley. Third place was DPOY candidate Brook Lopez.

https://theathletic.com/4397150/2023/04/10/quentin-grimes-immanuel-quickley-knicks-thoughts/

[winforlose]

New York’s defense finished the season exactly 12 points per 100 possessions better when Quickley was on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass. That was the largest differential for any qualifying NBA player — by far. And look at the company behind him. Second place (among players who ran for at least 1,500 minutes this season) was former NBA Defensive Player of the Year Draymond Green, who was more than two points per 100 behind Quickley. Third place was DPOY candidate Brook Lopez.

https://theathletic.com/4397150/2023/04/10/quentin-grimes-immanuel-quickley-knicks-thoughts/

I didn’t watch much basketball last year, but according to BB reference he only started 21 games. Bench players play against bench players and if he replaces a poor defender like Brunson that further skews the numbers. AST/TO was 3.4 to 1.2 which is good for a backup and bad for a starter. My questions about him relate to his shot profile, (catch and shoot vs off the dribble,) is he a willing passer, can he direct the flow of the offense or simply relay coaches instructions and run plays. If Mike gets hurt I don’t know that IQ can replace the structure and discipline Mike imposes on the offense.

P.S. Towns is way more valuable than IQ. Even with picks the Wolves would need a lot more to balance the equation.

[Klomp]

New York’s defense finished the season exactly 12 points per 100 possessions better when Quickley was on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass. That was the largest differential for any qualifying NBA player — by far. And look at the company behind him. Second place (among players who ran for at least 1,500 minutes this season) was former NBA Defensive Player of the Year Draymond Green, who was more than two points per 100 behind Quickley. Third place was DPOY candidate Brook Lopez.

https://theathletic.com/4397150/2023/04/10/quentin-grimes-immanuel-quickley-knicks-thoughts/

I didn’t watch much basketball last year, but according to BB reference he only started 21 games. Bench players play against bench players and if he replaces a poor defender like Brunson that further skews the numbers. AST/TO was 3.4 to 1.2 which is good for a backup and bad for a starter. My questions about him relate to his shot profile, (catch and shoot vs off the dribble,) is he a willing passer, can he direct the flow of the offense or simply relay coaches instructions and run plays. If Mike gets hurt I don’t know that IQ can replace the structure and discipline Mike imposes on the offense.

I see him a lot like a Dejounte Murray. No he might not be a "true" PG, but that's never been his role either.

He profiles as a 3 and D starting PG, which I think is exactly what we should want next to Edwards.

This is something about him from another writeup from last year that I absolutely love (if you subscribe to The Athletic, I recommend reading the entire thing):
The greatest compliment a player can give Quickley is that he won’t shut up.

The third-year guard guides teammates through complicated switches, like the one above. He is the Knicks’ most vocal defender in transition, pointing and twisting to make sure the group picks up assignments properly — or at least stops the ball. He’s able to direct the defense from the top of the key, a job normally reserved for centers who stand as the last line of protection and thus can see the whole floor.

Quickley doesn’t have eyes in the back of his head, but he can sense what’s happening behind him.

“(It’s) kind of a feel. And also as you see games, you see the same patterns,” Quickley said. “Pretty much everybody in the league runs the same stuff.”

Quickley has become obsessed with basketball minutiae. He’s able to recognize other teams’ plays just from the actions he’s defending, which then allows him to direct the defenders behind him. He scrutinizes game film — and not just to memorize opposing offenses. He also studies his favorite defender, Milwaukee Bucks extraordinaire Jrue Holiday.

https://theathletic.com/4143386/2023/02/01/knicks-immanuel-quickley-defense/

[minimus]

Defense:

New York’s defense finished the season exactly 12 points per 100 possessions better when Quickley was on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass. That was the largest differential for any qualifying NBA player — by far. And look at the company behind him. Second place (among players who ran for at least 1,500 minutes this season) was former NBA Defensive Player of the Year Draymond Green, who was more than two points per 100 behind Quickley. Third place was DPOY candidate Brook Lopez.

https://theathletic.com/4397150/2023/04/10/quentin-grimes-immanuel-quickley-knicks-thoughts/

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I believe they have pretty good draft capital to include.

Four FRPs in 2024, two in 2025. One should be protected by Stepien rule

https://fanspo.com/nba/teams/Knicks/20/draft-picks

A couple more things to add to NYK scenario:

1) if we trade Towns, we better trade him to East

2) NY is his hometown

3) IQ does not have much room and opportunities to grow behind Brunson, Hart, DDV

4) Fournier contract has team option for 2024-25 (deadline 6/29/2024)

Summary:

1) MIN has NO candidate for starting PG after Conley era. MIN has NO candidate for backup PG behind. This risk can not be fully mitigated. Conley plays every clutch, every game

2) while Towns combination of shooting, passing, size, slashing game can not be fully replaced, we have some options in Reid who continues to improve, Anderson (if we can re-sign him), Miller (probably still needs at least one full offseason to work on his skill and two full seasons to adapt to NBA game)

3) our financial situation will only limit our flexibility in trading, FA market, waivers activities

4) IQ looks like an ideal combination of skills at PG position: elite defense, elite PnR efficiency

To simplify Towns ===> IQ trade:

Towns' shooting, passing, rebound, slashing ===> elite perimeter defense, elite PnR efficiency

This is baseline. But we would get also assets from this trade, such as expiring contract (cap space) and FRP picks. This is investment that can add to baseline result. But it depends a lot on our organization ability to scout, develop and make good trades:

- can we resign Anderson and Conley?
- can we find a movement shooter?
- can we find a PF?
- can we find a backup PG?