Trade Talk (Part 14): 2023-24 Edition

[winforlose]

Defense:

New York’s defense finished the season exactly 12 points per 100 possessions better when Quickley was on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass. That was the largest differential for any qualifying NBA player — by far. And look at the company behind him. Second place (among players who ran for at least 1,500 minutes this season) was former NBA Defensive Player of the Year Draymond Green, who was more than two points per 100 behind Quickley. Third place was DPOY candidate Brook Lopez.

https://theathletic.com/4397150/2023/04/10/quentin-grimes-immanuel-quickley-knicks-thoughts/

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I believe they have pretty good draft capital to include.

Four FRPs in 2024, two in 2025. One should be protected by Stepien rule

https://fanspo.com/nba/teams/Knicks/20/draft-picks

A couple more things to add to NYK scenario:

1) if we trade Towns, we better trade him to East

2) NY is his hometown

3) IQ does not have much room and opportunities to grow behind Brunson, Hart, DDV

4) Fournier contract has team option for 2024-25 (deadline 6/29/2024)

Summary:

1) MIN has NO candidate for starting PG after Conley era. MIN has NO candidate for backup PG behind. This risk can not be fully mitigated. Conley plays every clutch, every game

2) while Towns combination of shooting, passing, size, slashing game can not be fully replaced, we have some options in Reid who continues to improve, Anderson (if we can re-sign him), Miller (probably still needs at least one full offseason to work on his skill and two full seasons to adapt to NBA game)

3) our financial situation will only limit our flexibility in trading, FA market, waivers activities

4) IQ looks like an ideal combination of skills at PG position: elite defense, elite PnR efficiency

To simplify Towns ===> IQ trade:

Towns' shooting, passing, rebound, slashing ===> elite perimeter defense, elite PnR efficiency

This is baseline. But we would get also assets from this trade, such as expiring contract (cap space) and FRP picks. This is investment that can add to baseline result. But it depends a lot on our organization ability to scout, develop and make good trades:

- can we resign Anderson and Conley?
- can we find a movement shooter?
- can we find a PF?
- can we find a backup PG?

Nice work to both you and Klomp. Rudy is 31 years old and under contract for this year, next year, then a player option. Mike Conley is 36 turning 37 by the start of next season. We don’t own our own first in 25, 27, or most likely in 29, and we owe a swap in 26. Grabbing a ton of NYK picks after handing them a 50/40/90 all NBA center is not enough compensation. You are talking about adding a potentially valuable non traditional PG (who still isn’t playing beside Brunson in the starting lineup,) in exchange for our most efficient scorer and our only safety net if Rudy gets hurt. This is a blow it up trade. This is what Utah should be trying to do with teams like the Warriors and Clippers when they can no longer afford their crazy roster. Bribe them with picks to start a rebuild. We have a narrow window now, and a second window after that that (Ant, MCD, Naz,) we shouldn’t slam the first one shut just when we are starting to get fresh air. You want to move KAT, have NYK get us Markkanen to replace him, and throw us a value guard in the bargain. We want to split KAT not limp on without him.

[winforlose]

I have been thinking about Atlanta as a possible trade partner. The Young/Murray duo has not worked for them. At least not the way they hoped. A swap of KAT for Murray and Okongwu gives both teams more balance. Plus we can move Okongwu again if we want to.

[MN7725]

New York’s defense finished the season exactly 12 points per 100 possessions better when Quickley was on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass. That was the largest differential for any qualifying NBA player — by far. And look at the company behind him. Second place (among players who ran for at least 1,500 minutes this season) was former NBA Defensive Player of the Year Draymond Green, who was more than two points per 100 behind Quickley. Third place was DPOY candidate Brook Lopez.

https://theathletic.com/4397150/2023/04/10/quentin-grimes-immanuel-quickley-knicks-thoughts/

I didn’t watch much basketball last year, but according to BB reference he only started 21 games. Bench players play against bench players and if he replaces a poor defender like Brunson that further skews the numbers. AST/TO was 3.4 to 1.2 which is good for a backup and bad for a starter. My questions about him relate to his shot profile, (catch and shoot vs off the dribble,) is he a willing passer, can he direct the flow of the offense or simply relay coaches instructions and run plays. If Mike gets hurt I don’t know that IQ can replace the structure and discipline Mike imposes on the offense.

I see him a lot like a Dejounte Murray. No he might not be a "true" PG, but that's never been his role either.

He profiles as a 3 and D starting PG, which I think is exactly what we should want next to Edwards.

This is something about him from another writeup from last year that I absolutely love (if you subscribe to The Athletic, I recommend reading the entire thing):
The greatest compliment a player can give Quickley is that he won’t shut up.

The third-year guard guides teammates through complicated switches, like the one above. He is the Knicks’ most vocal defender in transition, pointing and twisting to make sure the group picks up assignments properly — or at least stops the ball. He’s able to direct the defense from the top of the key, a job normally reserved for centers who stand as the last line of protection and thus can see the whole floor.

Quickley doesn’t have eyes in the back of his head, but he can sense what’s happening behind him.

“(It’s) kind of a feel. And also as you see games, you see the same patterns,” Quickley said. “Pretty much everybody in the league runs the same stuff.”

Quickley has become obsessed with basketball minutiae. He’s able to recognize other teams’ plays just from the actions he’s defending, which then allows him to direct the defenders behind him. He scrutinizes game film — and not just to memorize opposing offenses. He also studies his favorite defender, Milwaukee Bucks extraordinaire Jrue Holiday.

https://theathletic.com/4143386/2023/02/01/knicks-immanuel-quickley-defense/

To me Quickley is the most likely guard to blow up if/'when he gets a chance, sort of like Halliburton/Maxey, or Goran Dragic when he was behind Steve Nash

He just had the bad luck of playing for Thibs that tends to favor vets (Burks, Kemba) over younger guys, than Knicks signed Brunson.

IQ hasn't perfomed well in playoffs, but again, would be the guard out there I would bet on

[winforlose]

I didn’t watch much basketball last year, but according to BB reference he only started 21 games. Bench players play against bench players and if he replaces a poor defender like Brunson that further skews the numbers. AST/TO was 3.4 to 1.2 which is good for a backup and bad for a starter. My questions about him relate to his shot profile, (catch and shoot vs off the dribble,) is he a willing passer, can he direct the flow of the offense or simply relay coaches instructions and run plays. If Mike gets hurt I don’t know that IQ can replace the structure and discipline Mike imposes on the offense.

I see him a lot like a Dejounte Murray. No he might not be a "true" PG, but that's never been his role either.

He profiles as a 3 and D starting PG, which I think is exactly what we should want next to Edwards.

This is something about him from another writeup from last year that I absolutely love (if you subscribe to The Athletic, I recommend reading the entire thing):
The greatest compliment a player can give Quickley is that he won’t shut up.

The third-year guard guides teammates through complicated switches, like the one above. He is the Knicks’ most vocal defender in transition, pointing and twisting to make sure the group picks up assignments properly — or at least stops the ball. He’s able to direct the defense from the top of the key, a job normally reserved for centers who stand as the last line of protection and thus can see the whole floor.

Quickley doesn’t have eyes in the back of his head, but he can sense what’s happening behind him.

“(It’s) kind of a feel. And also as you see games, you see the same patterns,” Quickley said. “Pretty much everybody in the league runs the same stuff.”

Quickley has become obsessed with basketball minutiae. He’s able to recognize other teams’ plays just from the actions he’s defending, which then allows him to direct the defenders behind him. He scrutinizes game film — and not just to memorize opposing offenses. He also studies his favorite defender, Milwaukee Bucks extraordinaire Jrue Holiday.

https://theathletic.com/4143386/2023/02/01/knicks-immanuel-quickley-defense/

To me Quickley is the most likely guard to blow up if/'when he gets a chance, sort of like Halliburton/Maxey, or Goran Dragic when he was behind Steve Nash

He just had the bad luck of playing for Thibs that tends to favor vets (Burks, Kemba) over younger guys, than Knicks signed Brunson.

IQ hasn't perfomed well in playoffs, but again, would be the guard out there I would bet on

Maybe so, really want to trade away KAT to find out?

[BlacJacMac]

New York’s defense finished the season exactly 12 points per 100 possessions better when Quickley was on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass. That was the largest differential for any qualifying NBA player — by far. And look at the company behind him. Second place (among players who ran for at least 1,500 minutes this season) was former NBA Defensive Player of the Year Draymond Green, who was more than two points per 100 behind Quickley. Third place was DPOY candidate Brook Lopez.

https://theathletic.com/4397150/2023/04/10/quentin-grimes-immanuel-quickley-knicks-thoughts/

I didn’t watch much basketball last year, but according to BB reference he only started 21 games. Bench players play against bench players and if he replaces a poor defender like Brunson that further skews the numbers. AST/TO was 3.4 to 1.2 which is good for a backup and bad for a starter. My questions about him relate to his shot profile, (catch and shoot vs off the dribble,) is he a willing passer, can he direct the flow of the offense or simply relay coaches instructions and run plays. If Mike gets hurt I don’t know that IQ can replace the structure and discipline Mike imposes on the offense.

P.S. Towns is way more valuable than IQ. Even with picks the Wolves would need a lot more to balance the equation.

If his defensive numbers are boosted by playing against back-ups, wouldn't his assist numbers be suppressed playing with backups?

[winforlose]

New York’s defense finished the season exactly 12 points per 100 possessions better when Quickley was on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass. That was the largest differential for any qualifying NBA player — by far. And look at the company behind him. Second place (among players who ran for at least 1,500 minutes this season) was former NBA Defensive Player of the Year Draymond Green, who was more than two points per 100 behind Quickley. Third place was DPOY candidate Brook Lopez.

https://theathletic.com/4397150/2023/04/10/quentin-grimes-immanuel-quickley-knicks-thoughts/

I didn’t watch much basketball last year, but according to BB reference he only started 21 games. Bench players play against bench players and if he replaces a poor defender like Brunson that further skews the numbers. AST/TO was 3.4 to 1.2 which is good for a backup and bad for a starter. My questions about him relate to his shot profile, (catch and shoot vs off the dribble,) is he a willing passer, can he direct the flow of the offense or simply relay coaches instructions and run plays. If Mike gets hurt I don’t know that IQ can replace the structure and discipline Mike imposes on the offense.

P.S. Towns is way more valuable than IQ. Even with picks the Wolves would need a lot more to balance the equation.

If his defensive numbers are boosted by playing against back-ups, wouldn't his assist numbers be suppressed playing with backups?

Only to the extent they need to make their shots. In fact there is a strong argument it should go the other way. If he is great in PNR with a backup against backups then the C should be hitting high percentage shots, or he he should. It’s only when you are passing to the perimeter player that having inferior bench shooters should truly hurt you. In the midrange it could but should probably wash more at this level.

[MN7725]

I see him a lot like a Dejounte Murray. No he might not be a "true" PG, but that's never been his role either.

He profiles as a 3 and D starting PG, which I think is exactly what we should want next to Edwards.

This is something about him from another writeup from last year that I absolutely love (if you subscribe to The Athletic, I recommend reading the entire thing):
The greatest compliment a player can give Quickley is that he won’t shut up.

The third-year guard guides teammates through complicated switches, like the one above. He is the Knicks’ most vocal defender in transition, pointing and twisting to make sure the group picks up assignments properly — or at least stops the ball. He’s able to direct the defense from the top of the key, a job normally reserved for centers who stand as the last line of protection and thus can see the whole floor.

Quickley doesn’t have eyes in the back of his head, but he can sense what’s happening behind him.

“(It’s) kind of a feel. And also as you see games, you see the same patterns,” Quickley said. “Pretty much everybody in the league runs the same stuff.”

Quickley has become obsessed with basketball minutiae. He’s able to recognize other teams’ plays just from the actions he’s defending, which then allows him to direct the defenders behind him. He scrutinizes game film — and not just to memorize opposing offenses. He also studies his favorite defender, Milwaukee Bucks extraordinaire Jrue Holiday.

https://theathletic.com/4143386/2023/02/01/knicks-immanuel-quickley-defense/

To me Quickley is the most likely guard to blow up if/'when he gets a chance, sort of like Halliburton/Maxey, or Goran Dragic when he was behind Steve Nash

He just had the bad luck of playing for Thibs that tends to favor vets (Burks, Kemba) over younger guys, than Knicks signed Brunson.

IQ hasn't perfomed well in playoffs, but again, would be the guard out there I would bet on

Maybe so, really want to trade away KAT to find out?

no

but if Wolves trade KAT it will likely be a money based move, historically those kind of moves have talent gap

[winforlose]

To me Quickley is the most likely guard to blow up if/'when he gets a chance, sort of like Halliburton/Maxey, or Goran Dragic when he was behind Steve Nash

He just had the bad luck of playing for Thibs that tends to favor vets (Burks, Kemba) over younger guys, than Knicks signed Brunson.

IQ hasn't perfomed well in playoffs, but again, would be the guard out there I would bet on

Maybe so, really want to trade away KAT to find out?

no

but if Wolves trade KAT it will likely be a money based move, historically those kind of moves have talent gap since the one team is getting essentially bailed out financially

Perhaps, but that is not what we should be talking about now. The team is 16 and 4, not 4 and 16. The only years in which we can win the lottery are this year and 2028 unless we get someone else's unprotected firsts. We made this gamble to win a title, not to bail out after one year of mostly injured failure. If we trade KAT this year is should be for an All star level guard and another rotation worthy big. KAT isn’t just good, he is top 5 in the league at this position good.

[wolves_89]

A few thoughts on a KAT trade.

When a star player gets traded there are a few typical reasons:
1 - The player is unhappy and is trying to force a move
2 - The player has off court issues that need a change of scenery
3 - The player is near the end of his contract with a reasonable chance of signing elsewhere
4 - The team has peaked below a contending level with few avenues for improvement

None of these really apply to KAT. He seems fairly happy. There aren't off court problems. He is signed long term and the team looks like it has a contending window opening. Basically if KAT gets moved, it's going to be because ownership isn't willing to pay the required luxury tax. I'm still hopeful that won't be the case, but we'll have to wait and see.

[MN7725]

Maybe so, really want to trade away KAT to find out?

no

but if Wolves trade KAT it will likely be a money based move, historically those kind of moves have talent gap since the one team is getting essentially bailed out financially

Perhaps, but that is not what we should be talking about now. The team is 16 and 4, not 4 and 16. The only years in which we can win the lottery are this year and 2028 unless we get someone else's unprotected firsts. We made this gamble to win a title, not to bail out after one year of mostly injured failure. If we trade KAT this year is should be for an All star level guard and another rotation worthy big. KAT isn’t just good, he is top 5 in the league at this position good.

yeah, i don't see Wolves doing a move with core guys until financially "necessary"

Quickley, again, would be someone I would bet on blowing up, a la SGA, Halliburton, etc

[Klomp]

Perhaps, but that is not what we should be talking about now. The team is 16 and 4, not 4 and 16. The only years in which we can win the lottery are this year and 2028 unless we get someone else's unprotected firsts. We made this gamble to win a title, not to bail out after one year of mostly injured failure. If we trade KAT this year is should be for an All star level guard and another rotation worthy big. KAT isn’t just good, he is top 5 in the league at this position good.

Just because we're talking about it today doesn't mean the trade would happen today.

There has been a growing concern that it will be more difficult financially to trade him after the season, because it will become more difficult to match his higher salary and still make whatever talent differential work. My original point around the new contract for Quickley and the team option for Fournier is a way to make it easier.

[winforlose]

Perhaps, but that is not what we should be talking about now. The team is 16 and 4, not 4 and 16. The only years in which we can win the lottery are this year and 2028 unless we get someone else's unprotected firsts. We made this gamble to win a title, not to bail out after one year of mostly injured failure. If we trade KAT this year is should be for an All star level guard and another rotation worthy big. KAT isn’t just good, he is top 5 in the league at this position good.

Just because we're talking about it today doesn't mean the trade would happen today.

There has been a growing concern that it will be more difficult financially to trade him after the season, because it will become more difficult to match his higher salary and still make whatever talent differential work. My original point around the new contract for Quickley and the team option for Fournier is a way to make it easier.

Klomp, if IQ doesn’t blow up (Dlo for example,) then all we did was sell low on KAT to buy low end draft picks. Meanwhile we sabotaged the next two seasons. We would still be weak at PG but now weaker at PF and C as well. Paper thin in depth, and without our own picks. It is beyond counter productive, it is all out surrender. For better or worse we are championship or bust since the Rudy trade.

[winforlose]

A few thoughts on a KAT trade.

When a star player gets traded there are a few typical reasons:
1 - The player is unhappy and is trying to force a move
2 - The player has off court issues that need a change of scenery
3 - The player is near the end of his contract with a reasonable chance of signing elsewhere
4 - The team has peaked below a contending level with few avenues for improvement

None of these really apply to KAT. He seems fairly happy. There aren't off court problems. He is signed long term and the team looks like it has a contending window opening. Basically if KAT gets moved, it's going to be because ownership isn't willing to pay the required luxury tax. I'm still hopeful that won't be the case, but we'll have to wait and see.

5. A team has a weakness in a position (for us PG,) and a strength in a position (C for us,) so they move a successful player for another successful player in the area of need. Moreover, when the successful player is an all NBA level, you can demand back an All Star and a rotation player. The key is getting an All Star PG and a rotational big. Example being Dejounte Murray and Okongwu for KAT. Murray fits the Gobert timeline, and Okongwu fits Ants.

[TimberKat]

A few thoughts on a KAT trade.

When a star player gets traded there are a few typical reasons:
1 - The player is unhappy and is trying to force a move
2 - The player has off court issues that need a change of scenery
3 - The player is near the end of his contract with a reasonable chance of signing elsewhere
4 - The team has peaked below a contending level with few avenues for improvement

None of these really apply to KAT. He seems fairly happy. There aren't off court problems. He is signed long term and the team looks like it has a contending window opening. Basically if KAT gets moved, it's going to be because ownership isn't willing to pay the required luxury tax. I'm still hopeful that won't be the case, but we'll have to wait and see.

5. A team has a weakness in a position (for us PG,) and a strength in a position (C for us,) so they move a successful player for another successful player in the area of need. Moreover, when the successful player is an all NBA level, you can demand back an All Star and a rotation player. The key is getting an All Star PG and a rotational big. Example being Dejounte Murray and Okongwu for KAT. Murray fits the Gobert timeline, and Okongwu fits Ants.

Given we are in buyer mode, I won't even do that. Maybe Naz or JMcD for Murray. I want a proven top 20 talent back for Towns.

[winforlose]

A few thoughts on a KAT trade.

When a star player gets traded there are a few typical reasons:
1 - The player is unhappy and is trying to force a move
2 - The player has off court issues that need a change of scenery
3 - The player is near the end of his contract with a reasonable chance of signing elsewhere
4 - The team has peaked below a contending level with few avenues for improvement

None of these really apply to KAT. He seems fairly happy. There aren't off court problems. He is signed long term and the team looks like it has a contending window opening. Basically if KAT gets moved, it's going to be because ownership isn't willing to pay the required luxury tax. I'm still hopeful that won't be the case, but we'll have to wait and see.

5. A team has a weakness in a position (for us PG,) and a strength in a position (C for us,) so they move a successful player for another successful player in the area of need. Moreover, when the successful player is an all NBA level, you can demand back an All Star and a rotation player. The key is getting an All Star PG and a rotational big. Example being Dejounte Murray and Okongwu for KAT. Murray fits the Gobert timeline, and Okongwu fits Ants.

Given we are in buyer mode, I won't even do that. Maybe Naz or JMcD for Murray. I want a proven top 20 talent back for Towns.

1. I doubt they give an all-star for Naz and Dejounte Murray is an All-Star level talent (injury replacement, but still.) Also Naz money doesn’t let us afford him. MCD literally doesn’t work because of the money. If they would take Naz and Kyle for Murray of course we do it, but they would need a more talented player.

[younggunsmn]

Dejounte Murray is on one of the best bargain contracts in the league.

If we ended up needing to move KAT because of $, a Murray/KAT swap is one of the few scenarios that might actually allow us to keep a championship window open. KAT for Murray/Okongwu is a even deal.

I wouldn't do that now though, I think KAT and his floor spacing is too important to what we do, and his improvement and role on defense is something flying below the radar with our hot start.
Unless the season totally fizzles out or KAT regresses big time from where he is at now, I just don't see us trading him in the forseeable future.
And certainly not for the garbage the Knicks have to offer.

[Neeva]

Dejounte Murray and Okongwu are so overrated it’s not funny.

Okongwu’s has zero offensive game and his defense isn’t that good and is about to be overpaid for a bench big ( similar contract to Naz but not nearly as impactful) you can find a similar vet center to Okongwu for much cheaper.
Murray is way too streaky and NOT a true pg. Most Hawks fans are not happy with either of those guys and Hunter.
Wolves can do much better for Kat if he ever gets traded.

[younggunsmn]

Okongwu is efficient on offense, 85% at the line and good in the mid range.
Not good from 3 yet but I wouldn't count out a guy who shoots 85% from the line from developing an outside shot.
That contract is a bargain if he's your starting center, even if he's playing 20 minutes a night.

If Conley isn't back next year, we couldn't realistically do any better than Murray as a replacement.

[Neeva]

Like I said Hawks fans , who watch him play all the time. Are done with Okongwu, he still can’t beat out Capela for a the starting spot and they think he’s regressing and think he’s like barely 6’7. You can’t have a 6’7 starting center, they want real size.

And Murray he can’t play pg in half court at all. he would be a horrible backcourt partner with Ant IMO. His defense is bad and he does too much iso on offense. Hawks fans think he’s average and never leads their offense well when Trae Young is out and his one all star appearance was probably a fluke.

[Klomp]

And Murray he can’t play pg in half court at all. he would be a horrible backcourt partner with Ant IMO. His defense is bad and he does too much iso on offense. Hawks fans think he’s average and never leads their offense well when Trae Young is out and his one all star appearance was probably a fluke.

Which is why I want Quickley. I truly believe he's Murray with a jump shot. And he'll likely be on a similar contract.