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2023-24 Regular Season

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toooskies
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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1501 » by toooskies » Thu Dec 7, 2023 8:29 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
toooskies wrote:In the same way that adding too many stars can be hard for teams like the Clippers, we may have a bit of an issue with Strus taking more usage than a guy like Okoro or Wade or a PJ Tucker type. You see stars have that problem all the time, it's not a question of being overrated. It has to do with Mitchell and Garland being off-ball more, but barely taking any catch-and-shoot 3s.


You have to be able to score against good defensive teams to advance in the playoffs. Unless your team has prime LBJ on it, that necessarily involves keeping the other team off-balance and moving on defense.

I've seen what happens when the other team loads up on Garland and/or Mitchell in ISO or PNR settings. I've seen what happens when Thibs brings in McBride to cool off Garland after Garland figured out Mitchell's drop coverage. This is long way of saying that I'm only half kidding when I say trade Garland and/or Mitchell if they can't play in an offense that puts the other team's defenders in motion. We don't have prime LBJ on the roster. We can't just play on cheat mode.


The stupid reality of the NBA is when something new isn't getting results, players and/or coaches will fall back on something they're comfortable with. It can take multiple years to implement a new system and really get it clicking and still you can run in to a team with an answer for it.

The thing is even even in the Orlando win, the +/- numbers don't reflect the box score performance and it's a red flag. As everyone gets healthy and used to playing together, we should see this change. Isaac Okoro barely dented the box score and yet led the team with a +16. If it doesn't mean anything, it should stop happening.

Well, here's what happened. Okoro got to play the end of the first and third quarters. The Cavs went on runs during both of those periods. (The Magic's bench defense hasn't been as good since Jonathan Isaac went down.)

At the end of the first quarter, it was mostly shooting luck-- and not Okoro's. Mitchell and Strus couldn't miss at the end of the first quarter.

With Suggs going down in addition to Fultz, Orlando's second unit had to turn to Caleb Houstan in their bench unit in the third quarter. And Orlando plays 4 bench guys with one of Paolo or Franz. Orlando played deep into their bench and struggled until Paolo and Franz both were on the court at the 9:45 mark to finish out the game.

https://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20231206&game=ORLCLE
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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1502 » by JonFromVA » Thu Dec 7, 2023 11:01 pm

toooskies wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
jbk1234 wrote:
You have to be able to score against good defensive teams to advance in the playoffs. Unless your team has prime LBJ on it, that necessarily involves keeping the other team off-balance and moving on defense.

I've seen what happens when the other team loads up on Garland and/or Mitchell in ISO or PNR settings. I've seen what happens when Thibs brings in McBride to cool off Garland after Garland figured out Mitchell's drop coverage. This is long way of saying that I'm only half kidding when I say trade Garland and/or Mitchell if they can't play in an offense that puts the other team's defenders in motion. We don't have prime LBJ on the roster. We can't just play on cheat mode.


The stupid reality of the NBA is when something new isn't getting results, players and/or coaches will fall back on something they're comfortable with. It can take multiple years to implement a new system and really get it clicking and still you can run in to a team with an answer for it.

The thing is even even in the Orlando win, the +/- numbers don't reflect the box score performance and it's a red flag. As everyone gets healthy and used to playing together, we should see this change. Isaac Okoro barely dented the box score and yet led the team with a +16. If it doesn't mean anything, it should stop happening.

Well, here's what happened. Okoro got to play the end of the first and third quarters. The Cavs went on runs during both of those periods. (The Magic's bench defense hasn't been as good since Jonathan Isaac went down.)

At the end of the first quarter, it was mostly shooting luck-- and not Okoro's. Mitchell and Strus couldn't miss at the end of the first quarter.

With Suggs going down in addition to Fultz, Orlando's second unit had to turn to Caleb Houstan in their bench unit in the third quarter. And Orlando plays 4 bench guys with one of Paolo or Franz. Orlando played deep into their bench and struggled until Paolo and Franz both were on the court at the 9:45 mark to finish out the game.

https://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20231206&game=ORLCLE


Small correction... at the end of the first quarter, we went on a 7-0 run while Mitchell and Strus were on the bench. Looks like Dean scored 5 and Evan scored 2. Isaac contributed an assist and a steal, but you don't build up a +/- unless you hold the other team to less and Orlando didn't score. Houstan wasn't in the game at that point, but it was 4 reserves + Franz.

We can dismiss this any number of ways, but Isaac has a solid track record with our Core-4. Caris too for that matter. If Strus is clearly a superior fit, we shouldn't have to wait too much longer for the evidence to start accumulating.
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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1503 » by Iwasawitness » Fri Dec 8, 2023 12:01 am

JonFromVA wrote:
Iwasawitness wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:For real, like he has a complete game. 3rd on the team in assists, rebounds, and blocks; 4th on the team in steals.

I'm not sure what else Strus can honestly do. For the contract he was given, he is outperforming it by far.


His play, if he’s able to carry this into the playoffs, will be the key to us getting out of the first round, assuming our opponent doesn’t matchup well with us again.


If our core-4 isn't healthy and playing well, nothing else is going to matter.


I'm not convinced that we can't win with Mitchell injured and Garland taking the reigns with Strus going over to the two and Wade starting at SF.
LakerLegend wrote:LeBron was literally more athletic at 35 than he was at 20
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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1504 » by jbk1234 » Fri Dec 8, 2023 1:04 am

JonFromVA wrote:
toooskies wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
The stupid reality of the NBA is when something new isn't getting results, players and/or coaches will fall back on something they're comfortable with. It can take multiple years to implement a new system and really get it clicking and still you can run in to a team with an answer for it.

The thing is even even in the Orlando win, the +/- numbers don't reflect the box score performance and it's a red flag. As everyone gets healthy and used to playing together, we should see this change. Isaac Okoro barely dented the box score and yet led the team with a +16. If it doesn't mean anything, it should stop happening.

Well, here's what happened. Okoro got to play the end of the first and third quarters. The Cavs went on runs during both of those periods. (The Magic's bench defense hasn't been as good since Jonathan Isaac went down.)

At the end of the first quarter, it was mostly shooting luck-- and not Okoro's. Mitchell and Strus couldn't miss at the end of the first quarter.

With Suggs going down in addition to Fultz, Orlando's second unit had to turn to Caleb Houstan in their bench unit in the third quarter. And Orlando plays 4 bench guys with one of Paolo or Franz. Orlando played deep into their bench and struggled until Paolo and Franz both were on the court at the 9:45 mark to finish out the game.

https://popcornmachine.net/gf?date=20231206&game=ORLCLE


Small correction... at the end of the first quarter, we went on a 7-0 run while Mitchell and Strus were on the bench. Looks like Dean scored 5 and Evan scored 2. Isaac contributed an assist and a steal, but you don't build up a +/- unless you hold the other team to less and Orlando didn't score. Houstan wasn't in the game at that point, but it was 4 reserves + Franz.

We can dismiss this any number of ways, but Isaac has a solid track record with our Core-4. Caris too for that matter. If Strus is clearly a superior fit, we shouldn't have to wait too much longer for the evidence to start accumulating.


I mean we've played a much tougher strength of schedule to start the year, suffered through a half a dozen starting units as a result of injuries, and we're 3 games above 500. If we hadn't dropped th

I'm much more interested in how we perform against the Magic, twice, the Celtics, twice, and Heat. It's not a simple math equation, particularly when you're including data against bad or middling teams.
cbosh4mvp wrote:
Jarret Allen isn’t winning you anything. Garland won’t show up in the playoffs. Mobley is a glorified dunk man. Mitchell has some experience but is a liability on defense. To me, the Cavs are a treadmill team.
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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1505 » by JujitsuFlip » Fri Dec 8, 2023 2:58 am

JonFromVA wrote:We can dismiss this any number of ways, but Isaac has a solid track record with our Core-4. Caris too for that matter. If Strus is clearly a superior fit, we shouldn't have to wait too much longer for the evidence to start accumulating.

Strus is part of the Cavs top 3, 5-man units, so idk how anyone is trying to spin any narrative contradictory of that.

1. +39.2 Strus/Garland/Mitchell/Mobley/Okoro
2. +35.8 Strus/Garland/Mitchell/Mobley/LeVert
3. +24.4 Strus/Mitchell/Mobley/Wade/LeVert

He is working flawlessly with 3 of the 4 guys within the "core 4" but just for context, i added in Allen's best 5-man unit too.

+19.4 Allen/Strus/Mitchell/Mobley/Okoro
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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1506 » by JonFromVA » Fri Dec 8, 2023 2:48 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:We can dismiss this any number of ways, but Isaac has a solid track record with our Core-4. Caris too for that matter. If Strus is clearly a superior fit, we shouldn't have to wait too much longer for the evidence to start accumulating.

Strus is part of the Cavs top 3, 5-man units, so idk how anyone is trying to spin any narrative contradictory of that.

1. +39.2 Strus/Garland/Mitchell/Mobley/Okoro
2. +35.8 Strus/Garland/Mitchell/Mobley/LeVert
3. +24.4 Strus/Mitchell/Mobley/Wade/LeVert

He is working flawlessly with 3 of the 4 guys within the "core 4" but just for context, i added in Allen's best 5-man unit too.

+19.4 Allen/Strus/Mitchell/Mobley/Okoro


Well, the first problem is those top-3 lineups do not have a lot of minutes, but Strus' overall On-Off is quite strong, so I think it's supported by data with more minutes.

The thing is this discussion has nothing to do with "spin" or "narrative", what it's been about is how Max fits with our core-4.

Nothing more, nothing less.

If we're +3.1 when he plays with the starting lineup, but +20 and up with other lineups; that suggests he may be better used in other lineups.

Simple as that.

Our starting unit is neither our best offensive oriented lineup nor our best defensive oriented lineup - it's a hybrid - and that may not be the optimal way to go. Pretend for a moment, you're an opposing coach: would you scheme to keep your best rim protector in the paint or have him following Allen or Mobley out to the 3pt line? Strus doesn't change that dynamic.

And it just so happens we have 41 minutes of Dean instead of Mitchell with the other starters, and they're at -2.3 at the moment.
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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1507 » by toooskies » Fri Dec 8, 2023 3:35 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:We can dismiss this any number of ways, but Isaac has a solid track record with our Core-4. Caris too for that matter. If Strus is clearly a superior fit, we shouldn't have to wait too much longer for the evidence to start accumulating.

Strus is part of the Cavs top 3, 5-man units, so idk how anyone is trying to spin any narrative contradictory of that.

1. +39.2 Strus/Garland/Mitchell/Mobley/Okoro
2. +35.8 Strus/Garland/Mitchell/Mobley/LeVert
3. +24.4 Strus/Mitchell/Mobley/Wade/LeVert

He is working flawlessly with 3 of the 4 guys within the "core 4" but just for context, i added in Allen's best 5-man unit too.

+19.4 Allen/Strus/Mitchell/Mobley/Okoro

If you dig a little deeper and look at how those lineups have been successful, you'll notice that the first two lineups were our best two lineups (of our 20 most played) in terms of steals. The third lineup was our best rebounding lineup. And after that, we shot a lot better than the other team in those lineups.

But the sample sizes here are small enough that it may not have been the lineup itself but just a particular matchup or lucky night can skew things significantly. 20 minutes can be a one-game sample size for a particular starting lineup.
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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1508 » by JujitsuFlip » Fri Dec 8, 2023 5:28 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:We can dismiss this any number of ways, but Isaac has a solid track record with our Core-4. Caris too for that matter. If Strus is clearly a superior fit, we shouldn't have to wait too much longer for the evidence to start accumulating.

Strus is part of the Cavs top 3, 5-man units, so idk how anyone is trying to spin any narrative contradictory of that.

1. +39.2 Strus/Garland/Mitchell/Mobley/Okoro
2. +35.8 Strus/Garland/Mitchell/Mobley/LeVert
3. +24.4 Strus/Mitchell/Mobley/Wade/LeVert

He is working flawlessly with 3 of the 4 guys within the "core 4" but just for context, i added in Allen's best 5-man unit too.

+19.4 Allen/Strus/Mitchell/Mobley/Okoro


Well, the first problem is those top-3 lineups do not have a lot of minutes, but Strus' overall On-Off is quite strong, so I think it's supported by data with more minutes.

The thing is this discussion has nothing to do with "spin" or "narrative", what it's been about is how Max fits with our core-4.

Nothing more, nothing less.

If we're +3.1 when he plays with the starting lineup, but +20 and up with other lineups; that suggests he may be better used in other lineups.

Simple as that.

Our starting unit is neither our best offensive oriented lineup nor our best defensive oriented lineup - it's a hybrid - and that may not be the optimal way to go. Pretend for a moment, you're an opposing coach: would you scheme to keep your best rim protector in the paint or have him following Allen or Mobley out to the 3pt line? Strus doesn't change that dynamic.

And it just so happens we have 41 minutes of Dean instead of Mitchell with the other starters, and they're at -2.3 at the moment.
One of the lineups is in the top 4 for mins this season the other top 8, and the last one top 12. Fact of the matter is outside of 1 line-up all these lineups don't have many minutes together, you can discredit the #s however you want.

Also, i'd say our 3 best lineups on the season including Strus and 75% of the core 4 show that he can play with the core 4 lol

Nothing about the data says remove Strus from the starting 5, ik people who didn't want to sign him want that to be the case but it's just not what the data shows.
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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1509 » by JonFromVA » Fri Dec 8, 2023 6:41 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:Strus is part of the Cavs top 3, 5-man units, so idk how anyone is trying to spin any narrative contradictory of that.

1. +39.2 Strus/Garland/Mitchell/Mobley/Okoro
2. +35.8 Strus/Garland/Mitchell/Mobley/LeVert
3. +24.4 Strus/Mitchell/Mobley/Wade/LeVert

He is working flawlessly with 3 of the 4 guys within the "core 4" but just for context, i added in Allen's best 5-man unit too.

+19.4 Allen/Strus/Mitchell/Mobley/Okoro


Well, the first problem is those top-3 lineups do not have a lot of minutes, but Strus' overall On-Off is quite strong, so I think it's supported by data with more minutes.

The thing is this discussion has nothing to do with "spin" or "narrative", what it's been about is how Max fits with our core-4.

Nothing more, nothing less.

If we're +3.1 when he plays with the starting lineup, but +20 and up with other lineups; that suggests he may be better used in other lineups.

Simple as that.

Our starting unit is neither our best offensive oriented lineup nor our best defensive oriented lineup - it's a hybrid - and that may not be the optimal way to go. Pretend for a moment, you're an opposing coach: would you scheme to keep your best rim protector in the paint or have him following Allen or Mobley out to the 3pt line? Strus doesn't change that dynamic.

And it just so happens we have 41 minutes of Dean instead of Mitchell with the other starters, and they're at -2.3 at the moment.
One of the lineups is in the top 4 for mins this season the other top 8, and the last one top 12. Fact of the matter is outside of 1 line-up all these lineups don't have many minutes together, you can discredit the #s however you want.

Also, i'd say our 3 best lineups on the season including Strus and 75% of the core 4 show that he can play with the core 4 lol

Nothing about the data says remove Strus from the starting 5, ik people who didn't want to sign him want that to be the case but it's just not what the data shows.


There's nothing magic about being "top-4" ... IMO, 100+ minutes deserves looking at and anything under that is dubious; but I'm going to suggest you try reading what I actually wrote.

You know what lineup qualifies for 100+ minutes?

The one with Strus and the Core-4 which we can directly compare to last years 100+ lineups with either Okoro or LeVert.

Again, this isn't agenda, it's not wish casting. It's called tracking actual performance with our Core-4 on the floor.
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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1510 » by JujitsuFlip » Fri Dec 8, 2023 7:14 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
Well, the first problem is those top-3 lineups do not have a lot of minutes, but Strus' overall On-Off is quite strong, so I think it's supported by data with more minutes.

The thing is this discussion has nothing to do with "spin" or "narrative", what it's been about is how Max fits with our core-4.

Nothing more, nothing less.

If we're +3.1 when he plays with the starting lineup, but +20 and up with other lineups; that suggests he may be better used in other lineups.

Simple as that.

Our starting unit is neither our best offensive oriented lineup nor our best defensive oriented lineup - it's a hybrid - and that may not be the optimal way to go. Pretend for a moment, you're an opposing coach: would you scheme to keep your best rim protector in the paint or have him following Allen or Mobley out to the 3pt line? Strus doesn't change that dynamic.

And it just so happens we have 41 minutes of Dean instead of Mitchell with the other starters, and they're at -2.3 at the moment.
One of the lineups is in the top 4 for mins this season the other top 8, and the last one top 12. Fact of the matter is outside of 1 line-up all these lineups don't have many minutes together, you can discredit the #s however you want.

Also, i'd say our 3 best lineups on the season including Strus and 75% of the core 4 show that he can play with the core 4 lol

Nothing about the data says remove Strus from the starting 5, ik people who didn't want to sign him want that to be the case but it's just not what the data shows.


There's nothing magic about being "top-4" ... IMO, 100+ minutes deserves looking at and anything under that is dubious; but I'm going to suggest you try reading what I actually wrote.

You know what lineup qualifies for 100+ minutes?

The one with Strus and the Core-4 which we can directly compare to last years 100+ lineups with either Okoro or LeVert.

Again, this isn't agenda, it's not wish casting. It's called tracking actual performance with our Core-4 on the floor.

It is the only line-up with 100+ mins this season, Jon.

It's not a direct comparison at all, it doesn't take into account the minutes restrictions from medical and injuries this season.

And this is 100% people trying to poo-poo Strus lol if ya wanna use 100 minutes as your static variable for this season, cool wait until Okoro gets 100 minutes with the core 4 then you can compare apples to apples.

Until then, no, nothing about you or anyone else suggesting the lineups should be shaken up is genuine. You're not looking at matchup/SoS or anything. You're saying in 398 regular season minutes Okoro is a better fit, cool, irrelevant. Regular season isn't the issue, can this team reach the 2nd round or maybe even the ECF? That's the goal, not winning 66 regular season games.
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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1511 » by JonFromVA » Fri Dec 8, 2023 8:36 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:One of the lineups is in the top 4 for mins this season the other top 8, and the last one top 12. Fact of the matter is outside of 1 line-up all these lineups don't have many minutes together, you can discredit the #s however you want.

Also, i'd say our 3 best lineups on the season including Strus and 75% of the core 4 show that he can play with the core 4 lol

Nothing about the data says remove Strus from the starting 5, ik people who didn't want to sign him want that to be the case but it's just not what the data shows.


There's nothing magic about being "top-4" ... IMO, 100+ minutes deserves looking at and anything under that is dubious; but I'm going to suggest you try reading what I actually wrote.

You know what lineup qualifies for 100+ minutes?

The one with Strus and the Core-4 which we can directly compare to last years 100+ lineups with either Okoro or LeVert.

Again, this isn't agenda, it's not wish casting. It's called tracking actual performance with our Core-4 on the floor.

It is the only line-up with 100+ mins this season, Jon.

It's not a direct comparison at all, it doesn't take into account the minutes restrictions from medical and injuries this season.

And this is 100% people trying to poo-poo Strus lol if ya wanna use 100 minutes as your static variable for this season, cool wait until Okoro gets 100 minutes with the core 4 then you can compare apples to apples.

Until then, no, nothing about you or anyone else suggesting the lineups should be shaken up is genuine. You're not looking at matchup/SoS or anything. You're saying in 398 regular season minutes Okoro is a better fit, cool, irrelevant. Regular season isn't the issue, can this team reach the 2nd round or maybe even the ECF? That's the goal, not winning 66 regular season games.


Since one of these times you might actually read what I wrote, let me repeat exactly what I'm saying:

If Strus is a clear upgrade with our Core-4 over our past options like Isaac and Caris, it will show up in the numbers.

This is about tracking and conjecture about why it hasn't or when it will happen.
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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1512 » by JujitsuFlip » Fri Dec 8, 2023 8:47 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
There's nothing magic about being "top-4" ... IMO, 100+ minutes deserves looking at and anything under that is dubious; but I'm going to suggest you try reading what I actually wrote.

You know what lineup qualifies for 100+ minutes?

The one with Strus and the Core-4 which we can directly compare to last years 100+ lineups with either Okoro or LeVert.

Again, this isn't agenda, it's not wish casting. It's called tracking actual performance with our Core-4 on the floor.

It is the only line-up with 100+ mins this season, Jon.

It's not a direct comparison at all, it doesn't take into account the minutes restrictions from medical and injuries this season.

And this is 100% people trying to poo-poo Strus lol if ya wanna use 100 minutes as your static variable for this season, cool wait until Okoro gets 100 minutes with the core 4 then you can compare apples to apples.

Until then, no, nothing about you or anyone else suggesting the lineups should be shaken up is genuine. You're not looking at matchup/SoS or anything. You're saying in 398 regular season minutes Okoro is a better fit, cool, irrelevant. Regular season isn't the issue, can this team reach the 2nd round or maybe even the ECF? That's the goal, not winning 66 regular season games.


Since one of these times you might actually read what I wrote, let me repeat exactly what I'm saying:

If Strus is a clear upgrade with our Core-4 over our past options like Isaac and Caris, it will show up in the numbers.

This is about tracking and conjecture about why it hasn't or when it will happen.
It's already happened Jon, Strus is in our top 3 units as a team, top 2 include Garland, Mitchell, and Mobley. The only guy missing is Allen and guess what, his best line-up also includes Strus.

We don't have to play mental gymnastics here.

I get it, you want it to be strictly the core 4 + Strus to prove some arbitrary point. I'm just explaining to you we are not forced to look through a pinhole.

The proof is right in front of you, if you want it. If not, hell yeah brother, hold your breath waiting on 1 specific lineup to reach or exceed a +/- put up last season with a different guy, lmao
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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1513 » by toooskies » Fri Dec 8, 2023 9:11 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:One of the lineups is in the top 4 for mins this season the other top 8, and the last one top 12. Fact of the matter is outside of 1 line-up all these lineups don't have many minutes together, you can discredit the #s however you want.

Also, i'd say our 3 best lineups on the season including Strus and 75% of the core 4 show that he can play with the core 4 lol

Nothing about the data says remove Strus from the starting 5, ik people who didn't want to sign him want that to be the case but it's just not what the data shows.


There's nothing magic about being "top-4" ... IMO, 100+ minutes deserves looking at and anything under that is dubious; but I'm going to suggest you try reading what I actually wrote.

You know what lineup qualifies for 100+ minutes?

The one with Strus and the Core-4 which we can directly compare to last years 100+ lineups with either Okoro or LeVert.

Again, this isn't agenda, it's not wish casting. It's called tracking actual performance with our Core-4 on the floor.

It is the only line-up with 100+ mins this season, Jon.

It's not a direct comparison at all, it doesn't take into account the minutes restrictions from medical and injuries this season.

And this is 100% people trying to poo-poo Strus lol if ya wanna use 100 minutes as your static variable for this season, cool wait until Okoro gets 100 minutes with the core 4 then you can compare apples to apples.

Until then, no, nothing about you or anyone else suggesting the lineups should be shaken up is genuine. You're not looking at matchup/SoS or anything. You're saying in 398 regular season minutes Okoro is a better fit, cool, irrelevant. Regular season isn't the issue, can this team reach the 2nd round or maybe even the ECF? That's the goal, not winning 66 regular season games.

I'm not sure anyone has said anything negative about Strus. He's been awesome this year by pretty much any measure.

Whether I've put it into words or not I've considered the idea of moving him to the bench with comparisons of Manu Ginobili coming off the bench. It wouldn't be because Strus's play isn't starting-quality.

It's more that whenever Strus makes a great play in the starting lineup, that's usage taken away from the other starters who are also capable of making plays. Niang, Okoro, and Wade are generally not playmakers-- which means the offense gets ineffective pretty fast when they're the bench units. (Niang has been doing well attacking the basket and getting that little floater lately, but I think that's more of him catching defenses by surprise rather than some innate talent he just discovered.)

But since you're taking any comment about moving Strus to the bench as slander, it's impossible to have that kind of conversation.

But I will concede that I may be misguided-- the 3-man lineup combination of Garland/Mitchell/Strus is +8.2, exceeding any of their individual stat lines.
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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1514 » by JonFromVA » Fri Dec 8, 2023 10:29 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:It is the only line-up with 100+ mins this season, Jon.

It's not a direct comparison at all, it doesn't take into account the minutes restrictions from medical and injuries this season.

And this is 100% people trying to poo-poo Strus lol if ya wanna use 100 minutes as your static variable for this season, cool wait until Okoro gets 100 minutes with the core 4 then you can compare apples to apples.

Until then, no, nothing about you or anyone else suggesting the lineups should be shaken up is genuine. You're not looking at matchup/SoS or anything. You're saying in 398 regular season minutes Okoro is a better fit, cool, irrelevant. Regular season isn't the issue, can this team reach the 2nd round or maybe even the ECF? That's the goal, not winning 66 regular season games.


Since one of these times you might actually read what I wrote, let me repeat exactly what I'm saying:

If Strus is a clear upgrade with our Core-4 over our past options like Isaac and Caris, it will show up in the numbers.

This is about tracking and conjecture about why it hasn't or when it will happen.
It's already happened Jon, Strus is in our top 3 units as a team, top 2 include Garland, Mitchell, and Mobley. The only guy missing is Allen and guess what, his best line-up also includes Strus.

We don't have to play mental gymnastics here.

I get it, you want it to be strictly the core 4 + Strus to prove some arbitrary point. I'm just explaining to you we are not forced to look through a pinhole.

The proof is right in front of you, if you want it. If not, hell yeah brother, hold your breath waiting on 1 specific lineup to reach or exceed a +/- put up last season with a different guy, lmao


Dude the new starting lineup is the topic I brought up. You can discuss it, or you can go off on something else, but stop pretending your replies are somehow relevant.
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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1515 » by JonFromVA » Fri Dec 8, 2023 10:39 pm

toooskies wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
There's nothing magic about being "top-4" ... IMO, 100+ minutes deserves looking at and anything under that is dubious; but I'm going to suggest you try reading what I actually wrote.

You know what lineup qualifies for 100+ minutes?

The one with Strus and the Core-4 which we can directly compare to last years 100+ lineups with either Okoro or LeVert.

Again, this isn't agenda, it's not wish casting. It's called tracking actual performance with our Core-4 on the floor.

It is the only line-up with 100+ mins this season, Jon.

It's not a direct comparison at all, it doesn't take into account the minutes restrictions from medical and injuries this season.

And this is 100% people trying to poo-poo Strus lol if ya wanna use 100 minutes as your static variable for this season, cool wait until Okoro gets 100 minutes with the core 4 then you can compare apples to apples.

Until then, no, nothing about you or anyone else suggesting the lineups should be shaken up is genuine. You're not looking at matchup/SoS or anything. You're saying in 398 regular season minutes Okoro is a better fit, cool, irrelevant. Regular season isn't the issue, can this team reach the 2nd round or maybe even the ECF? That's the goal, not winning 66 regular season games.

I'm not sure anyone has said anything negative about Strus. He's been awesome this year by pretty much any measure.

Whether I've put it into words or not I've considered the idea of moving him to the bench with comparisons of Manu Ginobili coming off the bench. It wouldn't be because Strus's play isn't starting-quality.

It's more that whenever Strus makes a great play in the starting lineup, that's usage taken away from the other starters who are also capable of making plays. Niang, Okoro, and Wade are generally not playmakers-- which means the offense gets ineffective pretty fast when they're the bench units. (Niang has been doing well attacking the basket and getting that little floater lately, but I think that's more of him catching defenses by surprise rather than some innate talent he just discovered.)

But since you're taking any comment about moving Strus to the bench as slander, it's impossible to have that kind of conversation.

But I will concede that I may be misguided-- the 3-man lineup combination of Garland/Mitchell/Strus is +8.2, exceeding any of their individual stat lines.


Not misguided, that's the root of the issue. If adding Allen and Mobley to that trio causes a drop of 5, then maybe Strus shouldn't be playing with Garland, Mitchell, Allen and Mobley ... or else what?

They need more time? We're playing our starters against other team's bench? The numbers are being dragged down by an outlier?

Lots of room for actual incite, discussion, and further tracking here.
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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1516 » by JujitsuFlip » Fri Dec 8, 2023 11:24 pm

toooskies wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:
There's nothing magic about being "top-4" ... IMO, 100+ minutes deserves looking at and anything under that is dubious; but I'm going to suggest you try reading what I actually wrote.

You know what lineup qualifies for 100+ minutes?

The one with Strus and the Core-4 which we can directly compare to last years 100+ lineups with either Okoro or LeVert.

Again, this isn't agenda, it's not wish casting. It's called tracking actual performance with our Core-4 on the floor.

It is the only line-up with 100+ mins this season, Jon.

It's not a direct comparison at all, it doesn't take into account the minutes restrictions from medical and injuries this season.

And this is 100% people trying to poo-poo Strus lol if ya wanna use 100 minutes as your static variable for this season, cool wait until Okoro gets 100 minutes with the core 4 then you can compare apples to apples.

Until then, no, nothing about you or anyone else suggesting the lineups should be shaken up is genuine. You're not looking at matchup/SoS or anything. You're saying in 398 regular season minutes Okoro is a better fit, cool, irrelevant. Regular season isn't the issue, can this team reach the 2nd round or maybe even the ECF? That's the goal, not winning 66 regular season games.

I'm not sure anyone has said anything negative about Strus. He's been awesome this year by pretty much any measure.

Whether I've put it into words or not I've considered the idea of moving him to the bench with comparisons of Manu Ginobili coming off the bench. It wouldn't be because Strus's play isn't starting-quality.

It's more that whenever Strus makes a great play in the starting lineup, that's usage taken away from the other starters who are also capable of making plays. Niang, Okoro, and Wade are generally not playmakers-- which means the offense gets ineffective pretty fast when they're the bench units. (Niang has been doing well attacking the basket and getting that little floater lately, but I think that's more of him catching defenses by surprise rather than some innate talent he just discovered.)

But since you're taking any comment about moving Strus to the bench as slander, it's impossible to have that kind of conversation.

But I will concede that I may be misguided-- the 3-man lineup combination of Garland/Mitchell/Strus is +8.2, exceeding any of their individual stat lines.
I just don't agree with that notion. Strus is the leading guy on our team in MPG tied with Mitchell and played in every game tied with Mobley and Niang.

Moving Strus to the bench means he's gonna for sure have his minutes cut and since JB only knows how to play 8 guys per night means that Strus would be in jeopardy of being a healthy DNP.

I'm good on that, let's stay with the guy who attempts almost 8 threes per game and connects on almost 40% of them.
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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1517 » by toooskies » Fri Dec 8, 2023 11:50 pm

JujitsuFlip wrote:
toooskies wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:It is the only line-up with 100+ mins this season, Jon.

It's not a direct comparison at all, it doesn't take into account the minutes restrictions from medical and injuries this season.

And this is 100% people trying to poo-poo Strus lol if ya wanna use 100 minutes as your static variable for this season, cool wait until Okoro gets 100 minutes with the core 4 then you can compare apples to apples.

Until then, no, nothing about you or anyone else suggesting the lineups should be shaken up is genuine. You're not looking at matchup/SoS or anything. You're saying in 398 regular season minutes Okoro is a better fit, cool, irrelevant. Regular season isn't the issue, can this team reach the 2nd round or maybe even the ECF? That's the goal, not winning 66 regular season games.

I'm not sure anyone has said anything negative about Strus. He's been awesome this year by pretty much any measure.

Whether I've put it into words or not I've considered the idea of moving him to the bench with comparisons of Manu Ginobili coming off the bench. It wouldn't be because Strus's play isn't starting-quality.

It's more that whenever Strus makes a great play in the starting lineup, that's usage taken away from the other starters who are also capable of making plays. Niang, Okoro, and Wade are generally not playmakers-- which means the offense gets ineffective pretty fast when they're the bench units. (Niang has been doing well attacking the basket and getting that little floater lately, but I think that's more of him catching defenses by surprise rather than some innate talent he just discovered.)

But since you're taking any comment about moving Strus to the bench as slander, it's impossible to have that kind of conversation.

But I will concede that I may be misguided-- the 3-man lineup combination of Garland/Mitchell/Strus is +8.2, exceeding any of their individual stat lines.
I just don't agree with that notion. Strus is the leading guy on our team in MPG tied with Mitchell and played in every game tied with Mobley and Niang.

Moving Strus to the bench means he's gonna for sure have his minutes cut and since JB only knows how to play 8 guys per night means that Strus would be in jeopardy of being a healthy DNP.

I'm good on that, let's stay with the guy who attempts almost 8 threes per game and connects on almost 40% of them.

If JBB ever played more than 8 guys you can bet that those minutes will come at Strus's expense most nights. If you're worried someone is going to get tired legs mid-season from playing too many minutes it's Strus who runs more than anyone else during games.
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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1518 » by JonFromVA » Sat Dec 9, 2023 4:25 pm

toooskies wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
toooskies wrote:I'm not sure anyone has said anything negative about Strus. He's been awesome this year by pretty much any measure.

Whether I've put it into words or not I've considered the idea of moving him to the bench with comparisons of Manu Ginobili coming off the bench. It wouldn't be because Strus's play isn't starting-quality.

It's more that whenever Strus makes a great play in the starting lineup, that's usage taken away from the other starters who are also capable of making plays. Niang, Okoro, and Wade are generally not playmakers-- which means the offense gets ineffective pretty fast when they're the bench units. (Niang has been doing well attacking the basket and getting that little floater lately, but I think that's more of him catching defenses by surprise rather than some innate talent he just discovered.)

But since you're taking any comment about moving Strus to the bench as slander, it's impossible to have that kind of conversation.

But I will concede that I may be misguided-- the 3-man lineup combination of Garland/Mitchell/Strus is +8.2, exceeding any of their individual stat lines.
I just don't agree with that notion. Strus is the leading guy on our team in MPG tied with Mitchell and played in every game tied with Mobley and Niang.

Moving Strus to the bench means he's gonna for sure have his minutes cut and since JB only knows how to play 8 guys per night means that Strus would be in jeopardy of being a healthy DNP.

I'm good on that, let's stay with the guy who attempts almost 8 threes per game and connects on almost 40% of them.

If JBB ever played more than 8 guys you can bet that those minutes will come at Strus's expense most nights. If you're worried someone is going to get tired legs mid-season from playing too many minutes it's Strus who runs more than anyone else during games.


Yep, and the goal here is to get functional rotations - which doesn't necessarily mean Max goes to the bench, it's just the easier decision than benching one of our "Core 4".

If the starters are getting off to a good start and the bench comes in and builds the lead, everyone is going to be playing a lot less minutes because we'll be blowing teams out by the 4th.

Figuring out what if anything is holding back the Max + the Core 4 lineups works for me too.
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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1519 » by JujitsuFlip » Sun Dec 10, 2023 5:41 am

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Re: 2023-24 Regular Season 

Post#1520 » by jbk1234 » Mon Dec 11, 2023 6:54 pm

JonFromVA wrote:
JujitsuFlip wrote:
JonFromVA wrote:We can dismiss this any number of ways, but Isaac has a solid track record with our Core-4. Caris too for that matter. If Strus is clearly a superior fit, we shouldn't have to wait too much longer for the evidence to start accumulating.

Strus is part of the Cavs top 3, 5-man units, so idk how anyone is trying to spin any narrative contradictory of that.

1. +39.2 Strus/Garland/Mitchell/Mobley/Okoro
2. +35.8 Strus/Garland/Mitchell/Mobley/LeVert
3. +24.4 Strus/Mitchell/Mobley/Wade/LeVert

He is working flawlessly with 3 of the 4 guys within the "core 4" but just for context, i added in Allen's best 5-man unit too.

+19.4 Allen/Strus/Mitchell/Mobley/Okoro


Well, the first problem is those top-3 lineups do not have a lot of minutes, but Strus' overall On-Off is quite strong, so I think it's supported by data with more minutes.

The thing is this discussion has nothing to do with "spin" or "narrative", what it's been about is how Max fits with our core-4.

Nothing more, nothing less.

If we're +3.1 when he plays with the starting lineup, but +20 and up with other lineups; that suggests he may be better used in other lineups.

Simple as that.

Our starting unit is neither our best offensive oriented lineup nor our best defensive oriented lineup - it's a hybrid - and that may not be the optimal way to go. Pretend for a moment, you're an opposing coach: would you scheme to keep your best rim protector in the paint or have him following Allen or Mobley out to the 3pt line? Strus doesn't change that dynamic.

And it just so happens we have 41 minutes of Dean instead of Mitchell with the other starters, and they're at -2.3 at the moment.


What's the Cavs record in games where Dean has started? You guys have to stop being prisoners to data, especially when the sample sizes are this chaotic and small. If the +20 other lineups aren't competing against the opposing team's starters, then there's reason to question whether they would continue to be +20 when asked to do so.

The reality is that Wade plays very well against SFs with size and he's helped slowed down the opposing offenses when a SF with size is an offensive hub. He adds that third rebounder we've been missing since we traded Lauri.

As far Strus, most teams don't have three good perimeter defenders and Strus gives that third guy nowhere to hide. It matters, and against teams with only two good perimeter defenders, it matters a lot. Last season, we were taking the shot good teams wanted us taking in the last 5 minutes. The last 5 minutes are where most games between good teams are won or lost. I'm encouraged by what I see.
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Jarret Allen isn’t winning you anything. Garland won’t show up in the playoffs. Mobley is a glorified dunk man. Mitchell has some experience but is a liability on defense. To me, the Cavs are a treadmill team.

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