2023-24 Regular Season

[JujitsuFlip]

Strus is part of the Cavs top 3, 5-man units, so idk how anyone is trying to spin any narrative contradictory of that.

1. +39.2 Strus/Garland/Mitchell/Mobley/Okoro
2. +35.8 Strus/Garland/Mitchell/Mobley/LeVert
3. +24.4 Strus/Mitchell/Mobley/Wade/LeVert

He is working flawlessly with 3 of the 4 guys within the "core 4" but just for context, i added in Allen's best 5-man unit too.

+19.4 Allen/Strus/Mitchell/Mobley/Okoro

Well, the first problem is those top-3 lineups do not have a lot of minutes, but Strus' overall On-Off is quite strong, so I think it's supported by data with more minutes.

The thing is this discussion has nothing to do with "spin" or "narrative", what it's been about is how Max fits with our core-4.

Nothing more, nothing less.

If we're +3.1 when he plays with the starting lineup, but +20 and up with other lineups; that suggests he may be better used in other lineups.

Simple as that.

Our starting unit is neither our best offensive oriented lineup nor our best defensive oriented lineup - it's a hybrid - and that may not be the optimal way to go. Pretend for a moment, you're an opposing coach: would you scheme to keep your best rim protector in the paint or have him following Allen or Mobley out to the 3pt line? Strus doesn't change that dynamic.

And it just so happens we have 41 minutes of Dean instead of Mitchell with the other starters, and they're at -2.3 at the moment.

What's the Cavs record in games where Dean has started? You guys have to stop being prisoners to data, especially when the sample sizes are this chaotic and small. If the +20 other lineups aren't competing against the opposing team's starters, then there's reason to question whether they would continue to be +20 when asked to do so.

The reality is that Wade plays very well against SFs with size and he's helped slowed down the opposing offenses when a SF with size is an offensive hub. He adds that third rebounder we've been missing since we traded Lauri.

As far Strus, most teams don't have three good perimeter defenders and Strus gives that third guy nowhere to hide. It matters, and against teams with only two good perimeter defenders, it matters a lot. Last season, we were taking the shot good teams wanted us taking in the last 5 minutes. The last 5 minutes are where most games between good teams are won or lost. I'm encouraged by what I see.

Cavs are 5-3 in Wade's starts this season.

[JonFromVA]

Strus is part of the Cavs top 3, 5-man units, so idk how anyone is trying to spin any narrative contradictory of that.

1. +39.2 Strus/Garland/Mitchell/Mobley/Okoro
2. +35.8 Strus/Garland/Mitchell/Mobley/LeVert
3. +24.4 Strus/Mitchell/Mobley/Wade/LeVert

He is working flawlessly with 3 of the 4 guys within the "core 4" but just for context, i added in Allen's best 5-man unit too.

+19.4 Allen/Strus/Mitchell/Mobley/Okoro

Well, the first problem is those top-3 lineups do not have a lot of minutes, but Strus' overall On-Off is quite strong, so I think it's supported by data with more minutes.

The thing is this discussion has nothing to do with "spin" or "narrative", what it's been about is how Max fits with our core-4.

Nothing more, nothing less.

If we're +3.1 when he plays with the starting lineup, but +20 and up with other lineups; that suggests he may be better used in other lineups.

Simple as that.

Our starting unit is neither our best offensive oriented lineup nor our best defensive oriented lineup - it's a hybrid - and that may not be the optimal way to go. Pretend for a moment, you're an opposing coach: would you scheme to keep your best rim protector in the paint or have him following Allen or Mobley out to the 3pt line? Strus doesn't change that dynamic.

And it just so happens we have 41 minutes of Dean instead of Mitchell with the other starters, and they're at -2.3 at the moment.

What's the Cavs record in games where Dean has started? You guys have to stop being prisoners to data, especially when the sample sizes are this chaotic and small. If the +20 other lineups aren't competing against the opposing team's starters, then there's reason to question whether they would continue to be +20 when asked to do so.

The reality is that Wade plays very well against SFs with size and he's helped slowed down the opposing offenses when a SF with size is an offensive hub. He adds that third rebounder we've been missing since we traded Lauri.

As far Strus, most teams don't have three good perimeter defenders and Strus gives that third guy nowhere to hide. It matters, and against teams with only two good perimeter defenders, it matters a lot. Last season, we were taking the shot good teams wanted us taking in the last 5 minutes. The last 5 minutes are where most games between good teams are won or lost. I'm encouraged by what I see.

We have a significant amount of lineup data from last year with Isaac and Caris in place of Strus. If you want to argue that's unfair for some reason, go right ahead.

Lineup data doesn't necessarily come down to one specific improvement, it's holistic and includes defensive impact and opportunity cost. For instance, right now Isaac is ahead of Max in TS%, so, even though Max is taking a lot more 3's and making 37.2% it isn't resulting in a higher overall efficiency - just volume. And as far as volume goes, if Isaac isn't taking shots, someone else is - so our overall efficiency is going to depend on who that is.

Side note ... Max's shooting numbers are pretty solid, so why isn't his TS% higher? He seems to be a bit low on his ability to score near the rim (perhaps due to the paint packing), but he still has a 2p% of 52.2% which is ok. It's mostly that he doesn't get to the line and his 3pt shooting is not elite (league average is 36.2%).

Duncan Robinson is a good example of a shooter who looks a lot more valuable when he's shooting 41.7% on his 3's like this year (62.2 TS%) .vs. 32.8% (53.4 TS%) the year before .vs. a very Strus like 37.2% (57.3 TS%) the year before that.

Which is probably saying way too much about efficiency because the difference between shooting 10 3's at 30% .vs. 40% is just one make ... 3 pts. And there are a lot of ways a player can contribute to a 3pt difference.

The one big exception to all that is gravity, and that's where I suspect Strus simply cannot impact that greatly because of the composition of our starting lineup. With two terrific big man finishers and two terrific wing drives, only a fool of a coach would tell his team not to cheat in to the paint.

[jbk1234]

Well, the first problem is those top-3 lineups do not have a lot of minutes, but Strus' overall On-Off is quite strong, so I think it's supported by data with more minutes.

The thing is this discussion has nothing to do with "spin" or "narrative", what it's been about is how Max fits with our core-4.

Nothing more, nothing less.

If we're +3.1 when he plays with the starting lineup, but +20 and up with other lineups; that suggests he may be better used in other lineups.

Simple as that.

Our starting unit is neither our best offensive oriented lineup nor our best defensive oriented lineup - it's a hybrid - and that may not be the optimal way to go. Pretend for a moment, you're an opposing coach: would you scheme to keep your best rim protector in the paint or have him following Allen or Mobley out to the 3pt line? Strus doesn't change that dynamic.

And it just so happens we have 41 minutes of Dean instead of Mitchell with the other starters, and they're at -2.3 at the moment.

What's the Cavs record in games where Dean has started? You guys have to stop being prisoners to data, especially when the sample sizes are this chaotic and small. If the +20 other lineups aren't competing against the opposing team's starters, then there's reason to question whether they would continue to be +20 when asked to do so.

The reality is that Wade plays very well against SFs with size and he's helped slowed down the opposing offenses when a SF with size is an offensive hub. He adds that third rebounder we've been missing since we traded Lauri.

As far Strus, most teams don't have three good perimeter defenders and Strus gives that third guy nowhere to hide. It matters, and against teams with only two good perimeter defenders, it matters a lot. Last season, we were taking the shot good teams wanted us taking in the last 5 minutes. The last 5 minutes are where most games between good teams are won or lost. I'm encouraged by what I see.

We have a significant amount of lineup data from last year with Isaac and Caris in place of Strus. If you want to argue that's unfair for some reason, go right ahead.

Lineup data doesn't necessarily come down to one specific improvement, it's holistic and includes defensive impact and opportunity cost. For instance, right now Isaac is ahead of Max in TS%, so, even though Max is taking a lot more 3's and making 37.2% it isn't resulting in a higher overall efficiency - just volume. And as far as volume goes, if Isaac isn't taking shots, someone else is - so our overall efficiency is going to depend on who that is.

Side note ... Max's shooting numbers are pretty solid, so why isn't his TS% higher? He seems to be a bit low on his ability to score near the rim (perhaps due to the paint packing), but he still has a 2p% of 52.2% which is ok. It's mostly that he doesn't get to the line and his 3pt shooting is not elite (league average is 36.2%).

Duncan Robinson is a good example of a shooter who looks a lot more valuable when he's shooting 41.7% on his 3's like this year (62.2 TS%) .vs. 32.8% (53.4 TS%) the year before .vs. a very Strus like 37.2% (57.3 TS%) the year before that.

Which is probably saying way too much about efficiency because the difference between shooting 10 3's at 30% .vs. 40% is just one make ... 3 pts. And there are a lot of ways a player can contribute to a 3pt difference.

The one big exception to all that is gravity, and that's where I suspect Strus simply cannot impact that greatly because of the composition of our starting lineup. With two terrific big man finishers and two terrific wing drives, only a fool of a coach would tell his team not to cheat in to the paint.

Strus has started in all 22 games this season. Okoro in 5. LeVert in one. Any minutes Okoro or LeVert got this season as starters came with one of Garland or Mitchell out. Yes, I think using last year's data is unfair for any number of reasons. Who you're playing, and who you're out there with, matters.

If we're going forward with both Allen and Mobley, and we should, then throw out the games where one of them is out. The offense is going to have to function with both of them on the court. If we want solve for how to beat good defensive teams, throw out the games where we beat up on bad teams. We won't be playing them when it matters most. Finally, whoever we want to start is going to be playing the other team's starters so maybe a lineup that performs well against the other team's second unit, maybe that lineup is a good second unit.

We way underperformed our on-paper ratings against good teams last season. It wasn't a postseason phenomenon. There were plenty of warning signs. This year we've already beaten Denver, Philly, the Magic, the Heat, G.S. the Knicks, and the Nets. I'm not even including the Raptors and Hawks who had our number last season. But for injuries, I'm convinced we would've split with OKC and the Pacers. We're much closer to where we want to be this season despite having plenty of reasons to be worse than 13-9.

[toooskies]

Well, the first problem is those top-3 lineups do not have a lot of minutes, but Strus' overall On-Off is quite strong, so I think it's supported by data with more minutes.

The thing is this discussion has nothing to do with "spin" or "narrative", what it's been about is how Max fits with our core-4.

Nothing more, nothing less.

If we're +3.1 when he plays with the starting lineup, but +20 and up with other lineups; that suggests he may be better used in other lineups.

Simple as that.

Our starting unit is neither our best offensive oriented lineup nor our best defensive oriented lineup - it's a hybrid - and that may not be the optimal way to go. Pretend for a moment, you're an opposing coach: would you scheme to keep your best rim protector in the paint or have him following Allen or Mobley out to the 3pt line? Strus doesn't change that dynamic.

And it just so happens we have 41 minutes of Dean instead of Mitchell with the other starters, and they're at -2.3 at the moment.

What's the Cavs record in games where Dean has started? You guys have to stop being prisoners to data, especially when the sample sizes are this chaotic and small. If the +20 other lineups aren't competing against the opposing team's starters, then there's reason to question whether they would continue to be +20 when asked to do so.

The reality is that Wade plays very well against SFs with size and he's helped slowed down the opposing offenses when a SF with size is an offensive hub. He adds that third rebounder we've been missing since we traded Lauri.

As far Strus, most teams don't have three good perimeter defenders and Strus gives that third guy nowhere to hide. It matters, and against teams with only two good perimeter defenders, it matters a lot. Last season, we were taking the shot good teams wanted us taking in the last 5 minutes. The last 5 minutes are where most games between good teams are won or lost. I'm encouraged by what I see.

We have a significant amount of lineup data from last year with Isaac and Caris in place of Strus. If you want to argue that's unfair for some reason, go right ahead.

Lineup data doesn't necessarily come down to one specific improvement, it's holistic and includes defensive impact and opportunity cost. For instance, right now Isaac is ahead of Max in TS%, so, even though Max is taking a lot more 3's and making 37.2% it isn't resulting in a higher overall efficiency - just volume. And as far as volume goes, if Isaac isn't taking shots, someone else is - so our overall efficiency is going to depend on who that is.

Side note ... Max's shooting numbers are pretty solid, so why isn't his TS% higher? He seems to be a bit low on his ability to score near the rim (perhaps due to the paint packing), but he still has a 2p% of 52.2% which is ok. It's mostly that he doesn't get to the line and his 3pt shooting is not elite (league average is 36.2%).

Duncan Robinson is a good example of a shooter who looks a lot more valuable when he's shooting 41.7% on his 3's like this year (62.2 TS%) .vs. 32.8% (53.4 TS%) the year before .vs. a very Strus like 37.2% (57.3 TS%) the year before that.

Which is probably saying way too much about efficiency because the difference between shooting 10 3's at 30% .vs. 40% is just one make ... 3 pts. And there are a lot of ways a player can contribute to a 3pt difference.

The one big exception to all that is gravity, and that's where I suspect Strus simply cannot impact that greatly because of the composition of our starting lineup. With two terrific big man finishers and two terrific wing drives, only a fool of a coach would tell his team not to cheat in to the paint.

It's hard for a 3-point shooter, even a good one, to hit the 60% TS mark. Shots at the rim are almost always better than shots from three, even when you're prime Stephen Curry (2015-16 FG% from 0-3 feet of 69.6% so .696 points per shot, while on a three-point attempt at 45.4% would get you .681 points per shot. That's all before you consider free throws.)

[JonFromVA]

What's the Cavs record in games where Dean has started? You guys have to stop being prisoners to data, especially when the sample sizes are this chaotic and small. If the +20 other lineups aren't competing against the opposing team's starters, then there's reason to question whether they would continue to be +20 when asked to do so.

The reality is that Wade plays very well against SFs with size and he's helped slowed down the opposing offenses when a SF with size is an offensive hub. He adds that third rebounder we've been missing since we traded Lauri.

As far Strus, most teams don't have three good perimeter defenders and Strus gives that third guy nowhere to hide. It matters, and against teams with only two good perimeter defenders, it matters a lot. Last season, we were taking the shot good teams wanted us taking in the last 5 minutes. The last 5 minutes are where most games between good teams are won or lost. I'm encouraged by what I see.

We have a significant amount of lineup data from last year with Isaac and Caris in place of Strus. If you want to argue that's unfair for some reason, go right ahead.

Lineup data doesn't necessarily come down to one specific improvement, it's holistic and includes defensive impact and opportunity cost. For instance, right now Isaac is ahead of Max in TS%, so, even though Max is taking a lot more 3's and making 37.2% it isn't resulting in a higher overall efficiency - just volume. And as far as volume goes, if Isaac isn't taking shots, someone else is - so our overall efficiency is going to depend on who that is.

Side note ... Max's shooting numbers are pretty solid, so why isn't his TS% higher? He seems to be a bit low on his ability to score near the rim (perhaps due to the paint packing), but he still has a 2p% of 52.2% which is ok. It's mostly that he doesn't get to the line and his 3pt shooting is not elite (league average is 36.2%).

Duncan Robinson is a good example of a shooter who looks a lot more valuable when he's shooting 41.7% on his 3's like this year (62.2 TS%) .vs. 32.8% (53.4 TS%) the year before .vs. a very Strus like 37.2% (57.3 TS%) the year before that.

Which is probably saying way too much about efficiency because the difference between shooting 10 3's at 30% .vs. 40% is just one make ... 3 pts. And there are a lot of ways a player can contribute to a 3pt difference.

The one big exception to all that is gravity, and that's where I suspect Strus simply cannot impact that greatly because of the composition of our starting lineup. With two terrific big man finishers and two terrific wing drives, only a fool of a coach would tell his team not to cheat in to the paint.

Strus has started in all 22 games this season. Okoro in 5. LeVert in one. Any minutes Okoro or LeVert got this season as starters came with one of Garland or Mitchell out. Yes, I think using last year's data is unfair for any number of reasons. Who you're playing, and who you're out there with, matters.

If we're going forward with both Allen and Mobley, and we should, then throw out the games where one of them is out. The offense is going to have to function with both of them on the court. If we want solve for how to beat good defensive teams, throw out the games where we beat up on bad teams. We won't be playing them when it matters most. Finally, whoever we want to start is going to be playing the other team's starters so maybe a lineup that performs well against the other team's second unit, maybe that lineup is a good second unit.

We way underperformed our on-paper ratings against good teams last season. It wasn't a postseason phenomenon. There were plenty of warning signs. This year we've already beaten Denver, Philly, the Magic, the Heat, G.S. the Knicks, and the Nets. I'm not even including the Raptors and Hawks who had our number last season. But for injuries, I'm convinced we would've split with OKC and the Pacers. We're much closer to where we want to be this season despite having plenty of reasons to be worse than 13-9.

I'm not looking at starting lineup data per se, but the 5 man groups where only the 5th man varies between LeVert, Okoro, and Strus. These lineups all have lots of minutes and different opponents over the past two seasons Mitchell has been on the team.

Also don't be too quick to grant our new lineup too much credit for those wins:

For instance, Dean Wade started .vs. Denver and Philly and Denver was missing Murray. Niang started for Allen .vs. the Knicks.

We had our full starting 5 .vs. the Warriors, but that lineup gave up leads in both the 1st and 3rd quarters. It was rotations with Wade and LeVert that pummeled the Dubs hockey shifted backups.

And whatever reasons we care to employ work both ways. Mitchell was new with the team last year, and we got hit hard by injuries then too. The difference is we can track forward, so, when those reason no longer hold, we can re-evaluate.

[JonFromVA]

What's the Cavs record in games where Dean has started? You guys have to stop being prisoners to data, especially when the sample sizes are this chaotic and small. If the +20 other lineups aren't competing against the opposing team's starters, then there's reason to question whether they would continue to be +20 when asked to do so.

The reality is that Wade plays very well against SFs with size and he's helped slowed down the opposing offenses when a SF with size is an offensive hub. He adds that third rebounder we've been missing since we traded Lauri.

As far Strus, most teams don't have three good perimeter defenders and Strus gives that third guy nowhere to hide. It matters, and against teams with only two good perimeter defenders, it matters a lot. Last season, we were taking the shot good teams wanted us taking in the last 5 minutes. The last 5 minutes are where most games between good teams are won or lost. I'm encouraged by what I see.

We have a significant amount of lineup data from last year with Isaac and Caris in place of Strus. If you want to argue that's unfair for some reason, go right ahead.

Lineup data doesn't necessarily come down to one specific improvement, it's holistic and includes defensive impact and opportunity cost. For instance, right now Isaac is ahead of Max in TS%, so, even though Max is taking a lot more 3's and making 37.2% it isn't resulting in a higher overall efficiency - just volume. And as far as volume goes, if Isaac isn't taking shots, someone else is - so our overall efficiency is going to depend on who that is.

Side note ... Max's shooting numbers are pretty solid, so why isn't his TS% higher? He seems to be a bit low on his ability to score near the rim (perhaps due to the paint packing), but he still has a 2p% of 52.2% which is ok. It's mostly that he doesn't get to the line and his 3pt shooting is not elite (league average is 36.2%).

Duncan Robinson is a good example of a shooter who looks a lot more valuable when he's shooting 41.7% on his 3's like this year (62.2 TS%) .vs. 32.8% (53.4 TS%) the year before .vs. a very Strus like 37.2% (57.3 TS%) the year before that.

Which is probably saying way too much about efficiency because the difference between shooting 10 3's at 30% .vs. 40% is just one make ... 3 pts. And there are a lot of ways a player can contribute to a 3pt difference.

The one big exception to all that is gravity, and that's where I suspect Strus simply cannot impact that greatly because of the composition of our starting lineup. With two terrific big man finishers and two terrific wing drives, only a fool of a coach would tell his team not to cheat in to the paint.

It's hard for a 3-point shooter, even a good one, to hit the 60% TS mark. Shots at the rim are almost always better than shots from three, even when you're prime Stephen Curry (2015-16 FG% from 0-3 feet of 69.6% so .696 points per shot, while on a three-point attempt at 45.4% would get you .681 points per shot. That's all before you consider free throws.)

Steph is a little too unique given his game is all about sustaining the idea that if you leave him open just a little bit he's going to kill you and exploiting the double teams that results in. I mean, he can get away with taking some dumb shots if it means opponents are extending their defenses to half court.

Strus is fine shooting 60% close to the rim, it's just that he needs to shoot 40% from 3pt just to match that. Anything from the line is going to help, and anything mid-range is probably going to hurt.

I wonder what Kyle Korver is doing? Somehow he broke the code and for the most part he was knocking down 3's with movement at a ridiculous rate with high efficiency for a good chunk of his career. Even led the league with a 69.9 TS% one year which is just unheard of for a wing. Jokic barely topped that last season.

I'm not greedy, though, getting Strus's TS% back up in to the 60's like it was a couple of years ago would be terrific.

[JujitsuFlip]

What's the Cavs record in games where Dean has started? You guys have to stop being prisoners to data, especially when the sample sizes are this chaotic and small. If the +20 other lineups aren't competing against the opposing team's starters, then there's reason to question whether they would continue to be +20 when asked to do so.

The reality is that Wade plays very well against SFs with size and he's helped slowed down the opposing offenses when a SF with size is an offensive hub. He adds that third rebounder we've been missing since we traded Lauri.

As far Strus, most teams don't have three good perimeter defenders and Strus gives that third guy nowhere to hide. It matters, and against teams with only two good perimeter defenders, it matters a lot. Last season, we were taking the shot good teams wanted us taking in the last 5 minutes. The last 5 minutes are where most games between good teams are won or lost. I'm encouraged by what I see.

We have a significant amount of lineup data from last year with Isaac and Caris in place of Strus. If you want to argue that's unfair for some reason, go right ahead.

Lineup data doesn't necessarily come down to one specific improvement, it's holistic and includes defensive impact and opportunity cost. For instance, right now Isaac is ahead of Max in TS%, so, even though Max is taking a lot more 3's and making 37.2% it isn't resulting in a higher overall efficiency - just volume. And as far as volume goes, if Isaac isn't taking shots, someone else is - so our overall efficiency is going to depend on who that is.

Side note ... Max's shooting numbers are pretty solid, so why isn't his TS% higher? He seems to be a bit low on his ability to score near the rim (perhaps due to the paint packing), but he still has a 2p% of 52.2% which is ok. It's mostly that he doesn't get to the line and his 3pt shooting is not elite (league average is 36.2%).

Duncan Robinson is a good example of a shooter who looks a lot more valuable when he's shooting 41.7% on his 3's like this year (62.2 TS%) .vs. 32.8% (53.4 TS%) the year before .vs. a very Strus like 37.2% (57.3 TS%) the year before that.

Which is probably saying way too much about efficiency because the difference between shooting 10 3's at 30% .vs. 40% is just one make ... 3 pts. And there are a lot of ways a player can contribute to a 3pt difference.

The one big exception to all that is gravity, and that's where I suspect Strus simply cannot impact that greatly because of the composition of our starting lineup. With two terrific big man finishers and two terrific wing drives, only a fool of a coach would tell his team not to cheat in to the paint.

Strus has started in all 22 games this season. Okoro in 5. LeVert in one. Any minutes Okoro or LeVert got this season as starters came with one of Garland or Mitchell out. Yes, I think using last year's data is unfair for any number of reasons. Who you're playing, and who you're out there with, matters.

If we're going forward with both Allen and Mobley, and we should, then throw out the games where one of them is out. The offense is going to have to function with both of them on the court. If we want solve for how to beat good defensive teams, throw out the games where we beat up on bad teams. We won't be playing them when it matters most. Finally, whoever we want to start is going to be playing the other team's starters so maybe a lineup that performs well against the other team's second unit, maybe that lineup is a good second unit.

We way underperformed our on-paper ratings against good teams last season. It wasn't a postseason phenomenon. There were plenty of warning signs. This year we've already beaten Denver, Philly, the Magic, the Heat, G.S. the Knicks, and the Nets. I'm not even including the Raptors and Hawks who had our number last season. But for injuries, I'm convinced we would've split with OKC and the Pacers. We're much closer to where we want to be this season despite having plenty of reasons to be worse than 13-9.

I'm with you, trying to look backwards to last season is a futile exercise, when compared to what this season "should be", it removes all context.

[jbk1234]

We have a significant amount of lineup data from last year with Isaac and Caris in place of Strus. If you want to argue that's unfair for some reason, go right ahead.

Lineup data doesn't necessarily come down to one specific improvement, it's holistic and includes defensive impact and opportunity cost. For instance, right now Isaac is ahead of Max in TS%, so, even though Max is taking a lot more 3's and making 37.2% it isn't resulting in a higher overall efficiency - just volume. And as far as volume goes, if Isaac isn't taking shots, someone else is - so our overall efficiency is going to depend on who that is.

Side note ... Max's shooting numbers are pretty solid, so why isn't his TS% higher? He seems to be a bit low on his ability to score near the rim (perhaps due to the paint packing), but he still has a 2p% of 52.2% which is ok. It's mostly that he doesn't get to the line and his 3pt shooting is not elite (league average is 36.2%).

Duncan Robinson is a good example of a shooter who looks a lot more valuable when he's shooting 41.7% on his 3's like this year (62.2 TS%) .vs. 32.8% (53.4 TS%) the year before .vs. a very Strus like 37.2% (57.3 TS%) the year before that.

Which is probably saying way too much about efficiency because the difference between shooting 10 3's at 30% .vs. 40% is just one make ... 3 pts. And there are a lot of ways a player can contribute to a 3pt difference.

The one big exception to all that is gravity, and that's where I suspect Strus simply cannot impact that greatly because of the composition of our starting lineup. With two terrific big man finishers and two terrific wing drives, only a fool of a coach would tell his team not to cheat in to the paint.

Strus has started in all 22 games this season. Okoro in 5. LeVert in one. Any minutes Okoro or LeVert got this season as starters came with one of Garland or Mitchell out. Yes, I think using last year's data is unfair for any number of reasons. Who you're playing, and who you're out there with, matters.

If we're going forward with both Allen and Mobley, and we should, then throw out the games where one of them is out. The offense is going to have to function with both of them on the court. If we want solve for how to beat good defensive teams, throw out the games where we beat up on bad teams. We won't be playing them when it matters most. Finally, whoever we want to start is going to be playing the other team's starters so maybe a lineup that performs well against the other team's second unit, maybe that lineup is a good second unit.

We way underperformed our on-paper ratings against good teams last season. It wasn't a postseason phenomenon. There were plenty of warning signs. This year we've already beaten Denver, Philly, the Magic, the Heat, G.S. the Knicks, and the Nets. I'm not even including the Raptors and Hawks who had our number last season. But for injuries, I'm convinced we would've split with OKC and the Pacers. We're much closer to where we want to be this season despite having plenty of reasons to be worse than 13-9.

I'm with you, trying to look backwards to last season is a futile exercise, when compared to what this season "should be", it removes all context.

I just think that justifying personnel decisions based on averages against the NBA as a whole, when our offense really struggled to score against good defensive teams, isn't going to help us advance the playoffs.

[ijspeelman]

Lineup data doesn't necessarily come down to one specific improvement, it's holistic and includes defensive impact and opportunity cost. For instance, right now Isaac is ahead of Max in TS%, so, even though Max is taking a lot more 3's and making 37.2% it isn't resulting in a higher overall efficiency - just volume. And as far as volume goes, if Isaac isn't taking shots, someone else is - so our overall efficiency is going to depend on who that is.

IDK if this is the right take.

Okoro On/Off


Strus On/Off


The question here is how much are the other guys around Okoro and Strus affecting their On/Off. Well, as we know the rotation has been fairly short meaning most minutes are going to be played with a different set of 7ish different guys.

Okoro has played more than half of his 318 minutes with Strus next to him



There is probably still noise, but I think there is legitimate evidence that Strus' presence is providing higher overall efficiency than Okoro despite what TS% says

Edit: I went and found Okoro's top 5 line-ups for minutes played without Strus and found Strus' line-ups with the same players and compared the numbers



The sample is still not huge (I mean let three-ish three pointers change from makes to misses or vice versa and it becomes a wash), but I think it shows even more evidence that Strus' presence is providing higher offensive efficiency than Okoro's

[toooskies]

We have a significant amount of lineup data from last year with Isaac and Caris in place of Strus. If you want to argue that's unfair for some reason, go right ahead.

Lineup data doesn't necessarily come down to one specific improvement, it's holistic and includes defensive impact and opportunity cost. For instance, right now Isaac is ahead of Max in TS%, so, even though Max is taking a lot more 3's and making 37.2% it isn't resulting in a higher overall efficiency - just volume. And as far as volume goes, if Isaac isn't taking shots, someone else is - so our overall efficiency is going to depend on who that is.

Side note ... Max's shooting numbers are pretty solid, so why isn't his TS% higher? He seems to be a bit low on his ability to score near the rim (perhaps due to the paint packing), but he still has a 2p% of 52.2% which is ok. It's mostly that he doesn't get to the line and his 3pt shooting is not elite (league average is 36.2%).

Duncan Robinson is a good example of a shooter who looks a lot more valuable when he's shooting 41.7% on his 3's like this year (62.2 TS%) .vs. 32.8% (53.4 TS%) the year before .vs. a very Strus like 37.2% (57.3 TS%) the year before that.

Which is probably saying way too much about efficiency because the difference between shooting 10 3's at 30% .vs. 40% is just one make ... 3 pts. And there are a lot of ways a player can contribute to a 3pt difference.

The one big exception to all that is gravity, and that's where I suspect Strus simply cannot impact that greatly because of the composition of our starting lineup. With two terrific big man finishers and two terrific wing drives, only a fool of a coach would tell his team not to cheat in to the paint.

It's hard for a 3-point shooter, even a good one, to hit the 60% TS mark. Shots at the rim are almost always better than shots from three, even when you're prime Stephen Curry (2015-16 FG% from 0-3 feet of 69.6% so .696 points per shot, while on a three-point attempt at 45.4% would get you .681 points per shot. That's all before you consider free throws.)

Steph is a little too unique given his game is all about sustaining the idea that if you leave him open just a little bit he's going to kill you and exploiting the double teams that results in. I mean, he can get away with taking some dumb shots if it means opponents are extending their defenses to half court.

Strus is fine shooting 60% close to the rim, it's just that he needs to shoot 40% from 3pt just to match that. Anything from the line is going to help, and anything mid-range is probably going to hurt.

I wonder what Kyle Korver is doing? Somehow he broke the code and for the most part he was knocking down 3's with movement at a ridiculous rate with high efficiency for a good chunk of his career. Even led the league with a 69.9 TS% one year which is just unheard of for a wing. Jokic barely topped that last season.

I'm not greedy, though, getting Strus's TS% back up in to the 60's like it was a couple of years ago would be terrific.

Strus is taking a very difficult shot profile, his 3-point attempts are less often wide open shots than last year, and last year he was something like 4th percentile in shot quality?

He's shooting 48% on wide open threes, though. He just needs to get more of those.

[JonFromVA]

Lineup data doesn't necessarily come down to one specific improvement, it's holistic and includes defensive impact and opportunity cost. For instance, right now Isaac is ahead of Max in TS%, so, even though Max is taking a lot more 3's and making 37.2% it isn't resulting in a higher overall efficiency - just volume. And as far as volume goes, if Isaac isn't taking shots, someone else is - so our overall efficiency is going to depend on who that is.

IDK if this is the right take.

Okoro On/Off


Strus On/Off


The question here is how much are the other guys around Okoro and Strus affecting their On/Off. Well, as we know the rotation has been fairly short meaning most minutes are going to be played with a different set of 7ish different guys.

Okoro has played more than half of his 318 minutes with Strus next to him



There is probably still noise, but I think there is legitimate evidence that Strus' presence is providing higher overall efficiency than Okoro despite what TS% says

Edit: I went and found Okoro's top 5 line-ups for minutes played without Strus and found Strus' line-ups with the same players and compared the numbers



The sample is still not huge (I mean let three-ish three pointers change from makes to misses or vice versa and it becomes a wash), but I think it shows even more evidence that Strus' presence is providing higher offensive efficiency than Okoro's

Again, I'm solely focused on who should be playing with our Core-4, every other lineup is going to have different needs than our self-imposed klunky lineup with 2 non-shooting bigs and 2 undersized do it all guards.

Isaac can most certainly be a train wreck in a lot of other lineups, but if he works better in the starting lineup that's where he belongs. Which is not to ignore Caris who was even better in the role last year, or even Dean with his immaculate +16.2 last season, but alas just 42 minutes.

[JonFromVA]

It's hard for a 3-point shooter, even a good one, to hit the 60% TS mark. Shots at the rim are almost always better than shots from three, even when you're prime Stephen Curry (2015-16 FG% from 0-3 feet of 69.6% so .696 points per shot, while on a three-point attempt at 45.4% would get you .681 points per shot. That's all before you consider free throws.)

Steph is a little too unique given his game is all about sustaining the idea that if you leave him open just a little bit he's going to kill you and exploiting the double teams that results in. I mean, he can get away with taking some dumb shots if it means opponents are extending their defenses to half court.

Strus is fine shooting 60% close to the rim, it's just that he needs to shoot 40% from 3pt just to match that. Anything from the line is going to help, and anything mid-range is probably going to hurt.

I wonder what Kyle Korver is doing? Somehow he broke the code and for the most part he was knocking down 3's with movement at a ridiculous rate with high efficiency for a good chunk of his career. Even led the league with a 69.9 TS% one year which is just unheard of for a wing. Jokic barely topped that last season.

I'm not greedy, though, getting Strus's TS% back up in to the 60's like it was a couple of years ago would be terrific.

Strus is taking a very difficult shot profile, his 3-point attempts are less often wide open shots than last year, and last year he was something like 4th percentile in shot quality?

He's shooting 48% on wide open threes, though. He just needs to get more of those.

Wasn't that the dream to have someone who could shoot really well on open 3's take those shots from Isaac/Stevens/etc?

From what I see, defenses are probably playing just a step or two farther from the paint on Strus. They're happy to run out on him and those probably get registered as "contested" even though it's dubious whether a hand actually gets up in time to matter.

Seems like Niang is more feared and it might not even be him. I think it's just how we've been scouted when our Core 4 is in the game. The first priority is to pack the paint and prevent the easy dunks/lobs, and try to get Mitchell and Garland to launch mid-range garbage rather than get to the rim. If they drive & kick, try to get in the passing lanes, late contest, and hope the shooter misses.

[ijspeelman]

Lineup data doesn't necessarily come down to one specific improvement, it's holistic and includes defensive impact and opportunity cost. For instance, right now Isaac is ahead of Max in TS%, so, even though Max is taking a lot more 3's and making 37.2% it isn't resulting in a higher overall efficiency - just volume. And as far as volume goes, if Isaac isn't taking shots, someone else is - so our overall efficiency is going to depend on who that is.

IDK if this is the right take.

Okoro On/Off


Strus On/Off


The question here is how much are the other guys around Okoro and Strus affecting their On/Off. Well, as we know the rotation has been fairly short meaning most minutes are going to be played with a different set of 7ish different guys.

Okoro has played more than half of his 318 minutes with Strus next to him



There is probably still noise, but I think there is legitimate evidence that Strus' presence is providing higher overall efficiency than Okoro despite what TS% says

Edit: I went and found Okoro's top 5 line-ups for minutes played without Strus and found Strus' line-ups with the same players and compared the numbers



The sample is still not huge (I mean let three-ish three pointers change from makes to misses or vice versa and it becomes a wash), but I think it shows even more evidence that Strus' presence is providing higher offensive efficiency than Okoro's

Again, I'm solely focused on who should be playing with our Core-4, every other lineup is going to have different needs than our self-imposed klunky lineup with 2 non-shooting bigs and 2 undersized do it all guards.

Isaac can most certainly be a train wreck in a lot of other lineups, but if he works better in the starting lineup that's where he belongs. Which is not to ignore Caris who was even better in the role last year, or even Dean with his immaculate +16.2 last season, but alas just 42 minutes.

And oddly... Okoro has not played a single minute together this year with Garland, Mitchell, Mobley, and Allen. At least according to NBA.com

[JujitsuFlip]

Isaac can most certainly be a train wreck in a lot of other lineups, but if he works better in the starting lineup that's where he belongs.

Not gonna happen, Strus is ballin' a fixture in the starting 5.

[JujitsuFlip]

Just for fun, after 25 games.

2020-21: 10-15
2021-22: 13-12
2022-23: 16-9
2023-24: 13-12

[ijspeelman]

Just for fun, after 25 games.

2020-21: 10-15
2021-22: 13-12
2022-23: 16-9
2023-24: 13-12

What’s been annoying is we’ve had moments this year where we’ve felt like we were stepping on the gas to get back to top 4 form (Nuggets and 6ers wins come to mind), but we either get injured or disappoint

There are still 57 more games for us to turn it around (or not) so I’m obvi not writing us off, but it’s been odd that I think this roster is more talents than lasts and we’ve looked noticeably worse

[JujitsuFlip]

Just for fun, after 25 games.

2020-21: 10-15
2021-22: 13-12
2022-23: 16-9
2023-24: 13-12

What’s been annoying is we’ve had moments this year where we’ve felt like we were stepping on the gas to get back to top 4 form (Nuggets and 6ers wins come to mind), but we either get injured or disappoint

There are still 57 more games for us to turn it around (or not) so I’m obvi not writing us off, but it’s been odd that I think this roster is more talents than lasts and we’ve looked noticeably worse

They are probably at minimum a play-in team, which given where the aspirations for this season started, that would be disappointing, especially if they got eliminated.

But as you say, still 70% of the season left for them to secure one of the top 6 seeds and avoid the play-in, which would be ideal.

I know I keep harping on it but I really feel like cleaning up the back half of the roster sooner than later would go along way. Need clarification on who can actually get consistent minutes in the rotation.

[jasonxxx102]

Just for fun, after 25 games.

2020-21: 10-15
2021-22: 13-12
2022-23: 16-9
2023-24: 13-12

What’s been annoying is we’ve had moments this year where we’ve felt like we were stepping on the gas to get back to top 4 form (Nuggets and 6ers wins come to mind), but we either get injured or disappoint

There are still 57 more games for us to turn it around (or not) so I’m obvi not writing us off, but it’s been odd that I think this roster is more talents than lasts and we’ve looked noticeably worse

What will it take, or how long before you’re ready to write them off?

I have already. This team isn’t good. Talent on paper is meaningless without a coach who can put it together. It should be clear to everyone who’s watched this team JB is just not a good coach.

I haven’t even been watching the games anymore because there are too many other fun teams to watch and there’s nothing interesting about these guys.

There’s no chance the Cavs could beat any of the top 4 seeds in a series (I’d go as far as saying they won’t even make it out of the playin) so what are we even hoping for?

Teams don’t turn it on. Outside of the Heat and LeBron teams

[JujitsuFlip]

It should be clear to everyone who’s watched this team JB is just not a good coach.

Unfortunately there are Cavs fans who still "want to see more" from Jb. The guy has coached 272 regular season games as the Cavs HC, anything he could've showed you by now, he already has.

The guy isn't all of a sudden in his 5th season gonna flip a switch and actually learn how to run a diversified offense or a deep regular season rotation.

[JonFromVA]

Just for fun, after 25 games.

2020-21: 10-15
2021-22: 13-12
2022-23: 16-9
2023-24: 13-12

What’s been annoying is we’ve had moments this year where we’ve felt like we were stepping on the gas to get back to top 4 form (Nuggets and 6ers wins come to mind), but we either get injured or disappoint

There are still 57 more games for us to turn it around (or not) so I’m obvi not writing us off, but it’s been odd that I think this roster is more talents than lasts and we’ve looked noticeably worse

What will it take, or how long before you’re ready to write them off?

I have already. This team isn’t good. Talent on paper is meaningless without a coach who can put it together. It should be clear to everyone who’s watched this team JB is just not a good coach.

I haven’t even been watching the games anymore because there are too many other fun teams to watch and there’s nothing interesting about these guys.

There’s no chance the Cavs could beat any of the top 4 seeds in a series (I’d go as far as saying they won’t even make it out of the playin) so what are we even hoping for?

Teams don’t turn it on. Outside of the Heat and LeBron teams

Do you watch Pro Wrestling? I don't.

I'm here to see how it plays out, not to know it in advance.

btw, Cavs fans used to give up on LeBron teams too.