Hal14 wrote:FarBeyondDriven wrote:well, the no elite guys in this draft class is officially dead. Holland is special. He can pretty much do it all. He showed off: catch and shoot, off the dribble pull up jumpers, three point shooting, dunking on guys, chase down block, running the pick n roll, running the floor, finishing in traffic, taking guys off the dribble, finishing with his left, and defense with multiple steals and blocks.
But what does he do at an elite level? Sounds like he can do lots of things at the G league level but perhaps he's a jack of a all trades, master of none. Can do lots of things but isn't awesome at any of them.
Top 5 pick? Yes. Top 3? Probably. But let's not get carried away here..
Let's take a step back here and think practically about what you need to have to be a really good wing in the NBA that a team would build a franchise around (or at least be the #2 guy that a franchise builds around).
NBA level size and athleticism? Sure, Holland has that..but that's basically table stakes. But you need more than that to be a wing that an NBA team can justify taking with a top 2 pick and build the franchise around. Ideally you're a prospect who projects as a top 2 scoring option on playoff team. Or you're a guy who is really exceptional as a passer and defender..
I don't see Holland as that right now. His shooting is really bad. His ability to pressure the rim is good, but the combination of shooting struggles with not being a great passer makes it tough. On offense, I suppose he is somewhat similar to like Jaylen Brown as a prospect. And obviously he turned out to be a really good scorer in the NBA. So it's possible..But it's not a sure thing. Jaylen Brown showed some outlier development..
and there just aren't many cases where a guy had low TS%, low 3 pt%, not elite at passing or defense as a prospect yet turned out to be a star player worthy of a number 1 pick.
well, he's doing all of the above at 18 years old playing with kids against grown men. He' shooting from NBA three point range. If I was to say what is his defining trait I'd say it's his motor and competitiveness. His coaches said they have to sideline him during scrimmages sometimes when they're trying to work on certain things because he goes too hard all the time. You might scoff at that being a noteworthy trait but that is what helped make Westbrook and Rodman Hall of Famers.
He's doing more at this age than most current elite wings were. 20-7-3 with two steals and a block per game. He's maybe not an elite defender but he's a well above average one and has elite upside. Someone brought up the fact that you can't use his last 4 game sample size of good shooting because it's too small. But oddly enough, people were quick to use his first handful of poor shooting games to determine he can't shoot. Can't have it both ways. Seven games in Novemeber he shot 23% from three and 44% FT. Fives games in December he's shooting 33% from three and 90% FT. People would rather run with the "struggling to shoot" narrative based on the first seven games while he's playing professional basketball for the first time trying to carry the team instead of the last five games after he's settled down and Buzelis has returned helping to lessen the load. Wonder why that is. Probably to justify their earlier takes and further the narrative they're married to.
Plenty of wings have had lower TS%, poor to average three point shooting (from college line in fact) with "not elite" passing and defense and became great players. Guys like Tatum, Butler, George, Kawhi, Brown, Banchero, Edwards, DeRozan, Barnes, Wiggins and OG to name of few all lacked in some or in most of these categories. It actually seems like it's the norm. So what we should be focused on when evaluating wings is if they have NBA bodies with NBA athleticism and an all-around skillset that will allow them to get on the floor. They all showed that and so hasn't Holland.
I guess I just don't understand how some on this board arrive at their conclusions if it's not just following the popular narrative found in publications. Look at Tatum. He won some National High School Player of the Year by Gatorade. He was deemed an elite prospect and went to Duke. At Duke however, he was underwhelming. He had more turnovers than assists, was a decent not great defender, shot only 34% from the college three point line, had a tendency to jack up long contested two-pointers putting his IQ in question and he didn't display elite athleticism. How was that met by scouts and this board? Well, I spent time looking through past threads and none of it mattered! He was still considered an elite prospect and someone you could potentially build around.
Holland on the other hand, wasn't given the elite moniker despite also getting a National High School Player of the Year nod from SBLive. Publications didn't consider him an elite prospect though, therefore, nobody on this board considered him elite. And despite him showing out in the G-League he still has to fight for any respect. He's likely a top 3-5 lock and all I'm saying is he belongs in that elite category of top of the draft type talents. If Tatum was, Holland should be as well.
