2024 NBA Draft Thread

[FarBeyondDriven]

lots of games today. Watched a 1/2 dozen. I'm continually impressed by Castle and Carrington. NBA size, play the right way, excellent passers and most importantly, they actually defend. Castle isn't even looking full strength yet but he just so obviously moves and plays different than everyone else. Same with Carrington, who had a brutal shooting game but still found ways to control the flow, defend and set up the offense.

Watching these guards at Duke and Kentucky trade high usage games still has me shaking my head. I think kids have to wake up and stop choosing schools based on names if there's any chance their minutes will be impacted.

Mara is moving better and he actually played. The announcers mentioned that the UCLA coach Cronin doesn't allow his centers to shoot threes and Mara is apparently a knock down three point shooter from what they saw in workouts. I'm still baffled that he chose UCLA and that coach especially given that. NIL must be something else

Speaking about Mara, he's obviously got lottery talent but he's years away from having an adequate body. So he's probably either returning or he's going later than he'd like. The guy labors up and down the court. Once there, he's got a lot of Jokic in his game. The upside is there. But NBA centers would run laps around him and make him unplayable for a couple of years at minimum. Any team drafting him has to consider him a multi-year lottery project. At what point do you take him given that? Giannis lasted until pick 13. Jokic went in the 2nd round.

Would you rather take a center with great skill and size/length that will take 3 years to even see the floor but who has a high ceiling, or would you rather take a long athletic wing with low basketball IQ, a bad handle, and that can't shoot and hope he can improve skills wise but who can actually get on the floor? I think that's what it comes down to with lots of these guys in the late 1st or 2nd round.

Knecht is Klay 2.0. The resemblance, both physically and the way they play is uncanny. I know he's old but he's the same age as most of the old-timers were from the 1990s and before that played 3-4 seasons in college. He does the one thing that every NBA team needs desperately. I think he could be someone that goes higher than people think, kinda like Agbaji. Not sure it's in teens but I seriously doubt he makes it into the 2nd round.

That's got me thinking about this returning class and how good it is. This class just seems to be getting stronger and stronger because of it. I think almost the entire back half of the first round will be returning players since most of the freshmen talent is concentrated in the top half and any that fall out of the lottery may just decide to return themselves.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Man, I would love it if Isaiah Collier decided to ever start playing well so this draft could be less terrible.

Facing down the possibility of getting the #1 pick and having to pick a guy who is probably Mudiay is very uncomfortable.

[MemphisX]

Man, I would love it if Isaiah Collier decided to ever start playing well so this draft could be less terrible.

Facing down the possibility of getting the #1 pick and having to pick a guy who is probably Mudiay is very uncomfortable.

There is a zero percent chance Collier is going #1.

[clyde21]

hard to make a case for Collier #1, if he's being looked at as a pure point that 1:1 A/TO ratio is bad, 73% from line might mean that 40% from 3 is also not sustainable thru the year, also no real outlier physical tools or skill traits, more of a one way combo guard than anything else so its a dime a dozen archetype...meh

top 10 in this class most likely by default but top 3 or top 5 range i'd probably rather aim higher in terms of archetype even with a lower baseline player.

[HadAnEffectHere]

The game today dropped Collier's 3P% to 32%, lol.

[clyde21]

The game today dropped Collier's 3P% to 32%, lol.

and FT% down to 67%

the curse of small sample sizes

[EMG518]

I haven't been following much, is this looking like a bad draft right now?

[HadAnEffectHere]

I haven't been following much, is this looking like a bad draft right now?

The current #1 on every draft board is a 6'2" PG with a questionable jumpshot, as many turnovers as assists, little athleticism, a poor handle, and a not great motor.

The current #2 has a ceiling of Nic Claxton.

[EMG518]

I haven't been following much, is this looking like a bad draft right now?

The current #1 on every draft board is a 6'2" PG with a questionable jumpshot, as many turnovers as assists, little athleticism, a poor handle, and a not great motor.

The current #2 has a ceiling of Nic Claxton.

Outside of injury, why isn't Stephon Castle ahead of him?

Granted I haven't seen much but he looks like he has it.

[HadAnEffectHere]

I haven't been following much, is this looking like a bad draft right now?

The current #1 on every draft board is a 6'2" PG with a questionable jumpshot, as many turnovers as assists, little athleticism, a poor handle, and a not great motor.

The current #2 has a ceiling of Nic Claxton.

Outside of injury, why isn't Stephon Castle ahead of him?

Granted I haven't seen much but he looks like he has it.

He's a PG who has to start offense from the high post because he's so uncomfortable dribbling.

[Catchall]

I think if Ron Holland were playing in the NCAA, he'd look fairly similar to Jaylen Brown at Cal. Not saying he's a super prospect, his shooting touch is worrisome, but I'd expect him to go top 5 when it's said and done. His athleticism and measurables give him a platform to build upon.

At this stage, I'd expect that Topic and Sarr will go #1 and #2 in some order.

[CptCrunch]

Isaiah Collier is a confusing prospect.

Good size like Ant, solid build like Bledsoe, questionable playmaking like Cade.

I can see him becoming really good, but there is a huge chance that he becomes a less talented Cade, who is already not that talented from a point guard half court perspective. Prospects with huge turnover red flags scare me so much. Collier here is throwing the ball away up to 7 times in college! Negative assist to turnover ratio like Cade in college.

[eminence]

Just watching a few college games as I've been able to catch them so far, along with some Ignite.

Honestly, not sure I've liked a single guy so far (maybe Walter?, but looking just at box-scores I may have caught his very best game).

Sarr I liked in earlier international competitions, but don't have time to follow regularly, any other internationals to look out for?

[TheSuzerain]

Just watching a few college games as I've been able to catch them so far, along with some Ignite.

Honestly, not sure I've liked a single guy so far (maybe Walter?, but looking just at box-scores I may have caught his very best game).

Sarr I liked in earlier international competitions, but don't have time to follow regularly, any other internationals to look out for?

Nikola Topic is worth a look.

[Hal14]

The current #1 on every draft board is a 6'2" PG with a questionable jumpshot, as many turnovers as assists, little athleticism, a poor handle, and a not great motor.

The current #2 has a ceiling of Nic Claxton.

Collier isn't #1 on my draft board. He's no. 8. No Ceilings has Sarr no. 1. Someone else I was talking to has Collier no. 11.

Also, most of this statement is hyperbole. I wouldn't say he has a poor handle It's not elite or anything but calling it poor is hyperbole. His motor is actually really high sometimes. Sometimes the effort on D could be better but I wouldn't really say motor is a weakness for him. "Little athleticism" is extremely hyperbolic. While his vertical explosiveness could be better and lateral quickness could also be better, his burst is insanely high - almost Ja or Amen Thompson level burst - I'd probably put it in the category with like Jaden Ivey.

And he's listed on the USC website at 6'5". While nobody really believes he's 6'5", I wouldn't just label him 6'2" as if it's some type of fact. I think he's 6'3", perhaps 6'2" with a small chance of being 6'4". We won't know for sure till later on..

The current #2 has a ceiling of Nic Claxton.

I mean, that's probably Sarr's ceiling *defensively* which is not a bad thing at all. Lots of people were saying Claxton had a case to be DPOY last season. And Claxton is 6'11" with a 7'2.5" wingspan. Sarr meanwhile is 7'1" with a 7'5" wingspan..and Sarr has also shown more flashes of being able to defend quick guards/wings out on the perimeter than Claxton did when he was only 18..so I'd say Sarr's defensive ceiling is even higher.

Offensively, there's not much comparison. Sarr has much more playmaking feel as an 18 year old prospect than Claxton showed. And Sarr has also shown way more shooting potential and off the dribble shot creation potential too. I'm not saying Sarr is elite is any of those 3 areas but he's at least pretty good (or at least has shown enough flashes to let us think he has the potential to be pretty good) in all 3 areas. Claxton showed nothing in any of those 3 areas as a prospect.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I haven't been following much, is this looking like a bad draft right now?

The current #1 on every draft board is a 6'2" PG with a questionable jumpshot, as many turnovers as assists, little athleticism, a poor handle, and a not great motor.

The current #2 has a ceiling of Nic Claxton.

except a) Collier is 6'4" b) he's #1 on only one fairly outdated (two weeks is a few games worth and a lot in the ever changing scouting landscape) mock from CBS that I've seen c) he has fairly high athleticism d) he has a good handle

https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2024-nba-mock-draft/

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10099402-2024-nba-mock-draft-full-two-round-predictions-biggest-risers-and-fallers

https://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/

https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/2024_nba_first_round_mock_draft_121223/s1__39633499#slide_1

I'm seeing some rather awful takes regarding Collier though that is to expected on here. He's got good PG size, he is in fact an NBA point guard, he has a damn quick first step, he's powerful and fast and the athleticism will play very well at the next level, he can pass and run an offense as well. I will admit he shows frustration and it gets him in trouble with his motor. But he's young and not a finished product. More spacing and one on one in the NBA will play to his strengths. Very few will be able to contain him. He's a very good NBA PG prospect.

How is Sarr's upside Claxton when he's a much better offensive player with an actual shot? Shouldn't it be Mobley? They're essentially identical prospects. And not for nothing but every team in the league would love Claxton as he's a DPOY candidate with a high motor and has some offensive potential. It's not really the insult you think it is. Sarr's floor is somewhere between Claxton and Mobley. His ceiling is perhaps higher than Mobley because he can actually shoot.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I haven't been following much, is this looking like a bad draft right now?

The current #1 on every draft board is a 6'2" PG with a questionable jumpshot, as many turnovers as assists, little athleticism, a poor handle, and a not great motor.

The current #2 has a ceiling of Nic Claxton.

Outside of injury, why isn't Stephon Castle ahead of him?

Granted I haven't seen much but he looks like he has it.

he very well might be. I have moved Castle ahead of him slightly. I don't even think Castle is at full strength but his feel for the game is more advanced than Collier. I need to see him running the offense more and hitting shots before he's solidified as the #2 guy

[TheDraftGuy]

The way I see it right now, could change later....

Stars: Castle, Topic, Williams

Shot creation, well rounded skillsets, ball handling capability, good first steps, good use of body control, good shooting relative to their player SG/SF archetype.

50% chance of being Star but starter potential at minimum: Collier, Sarr

If we're going by pure 50/50, my pick here is Collier but I'm not sure he'll ever be more than a 2-3x All Star. Anything can happen, of course, but he seems more like a Baron Davis. Maybe more talented but limited in the way he approaches the game but with no dominant traits as a PG. In today's league, with its plethora of talented PGs/the game catered towards PGs, maybe that means All-Star only on a good team.

Sarr is like Ayton but with playmaking and less defensive capability. Doesn't really make contact and has no strong shot creation. A few reliable go-to moves and the ability to catch lobs. Emeka Okafor with playmaking is another comparison I like to use. They move similarly and had reputations as shot blockers. Maybe this will make him more of a borderline All-Star, at best.

20-30%: Clingan, Buzelis, Holland

Really like Clingan and Buzelis. See them as high quality starters. Clingan reminds me of Daughterty, honestly, but with some Ewing type strength.

Buzelis is Chandler Parsons/Batum mix.....some ball handling, shooting, and playmaking but not really able to make it to the next level unless they improve. If he improves, could be like a defensive Gordon Hayward.

Holland, I'm not sold on but his ability to attack may make him like Gerald Wallace or Kelly Oubre.

10-20%: Risacher, Wagner, Edey

Good roleplaying/starter talent that you find in every draft. Really sold on Edey here.

I'm sure more will be added to this pool and one above it as I evaluate more. Guys like Mara, Bradshaw, Edwards. By that, I also want to say that it'll be a very normal and average draft due to 4-5 All Stars. It won't be the worst draft ever. Too many international players nowadays prevents as such

[babyjax13]

I loved McCullar last year and had him at the tail end of the first round for quite a while before dropping him to be more consistent with the consensus. Ultimately, I think that was the right call. He's having an awesome start to the year, but my fear is that he ends up being a lottery pick. It's my fear because I don't think he is the caliber of player that should be a lottery pick. Could I see him playing into the first round? Absolutely. Lottery? Absolutely not. Although I also felt that way about Agbaji and I think he was actually a reasonably good choice given how he has played for us.

[FarBeyondDriven]

The way I see it right now, could change later....

Stars: Castle, Topic, Williams

Shot creation, well rounded skillsets, ball handling capability, good first steps, good use of body control, good shooting relative to their player SG/SF archetype.

50% chance of being Star but starter potential at minimum: Collier, Sarr

If we're going by pure 50/50, my pick here is Collier but I'm not sure he'll ever be more than a 2-3x All Star. Anything can happen, of course, but he seems more like a Baron Davis. Maybe more talented but limited in the way he approaches the game but with no dominant traits as a PG. In today's league, with its plethora of talented PGs/the game catered towards PGs, maybe that means All-Star only on a good team.

Sarr is like Ayton but with playmaking and less defensive capability. Doesn't really make contact and has no strong shot creation. A few reliable go-to moves and the ability to catch lobs. Emeka Okafor with playmaking is another comparison I like to use. They move similarly and had reputations as shot blockers. Maybe this will make him more of a borderline All-Star, at best.

20-30%: Clingan, Buzelis, Holland

Really like Clingan and Buzelis. See them as high quality starters. Clingan reminds me of Daughterty, honestly, but with some Ewing type strength.

Buzelis is Chandler Parsons/Batum mix.....some ball handling, shooting, and playmaking but not really able to make it to the next level unless they improve. If he improves, could be like a defensive Gordon Hayward.

Holland, I'm not sold on but his ability to attack may make him like Gerald Wallace or Kelly Oubre.

10-20%: Risacher, Wagner, Edey

Good roleplaying/starter talent that you find in every draft. Really sold on Edey here.

I'm sure more will be added to this pool and one above it as I evaluate more. Guys like Mara, Bradshaw, Edwards. By that, I also want to say that it'll be a very normal and average draft due to 4-5 All Stars. It won't be the worst draft ever. Too many international players nowadays prevents as such

Nice breakdown. I'm sure there'll be some all-stars that are taken in the lottery. I wonder if there'll be some found later in the draft people aren't considering. Most drafts only have about 4 all-stars.

Experts said the 2016 class was weak but it has 7 all-stars plus Brogdon, Jamal Murray, Hield, Zubac and Levert. 7 all-stars rivals the best classes ever. But besides them and the 5 other guys I mentioned it's dog crap. So is it strong, average or weak? I think it's pretty strong and was underrated at the time.

The 2017 class has 6 all-stars plus OG, White, Collins, Brooks, Monk, Kennard, Kuzma and Hart. That was considered very strong and it is but time has shown it's not all that much better than the "weaker" 2016 class.

The 2018 class was thought to be generational yet it only has 4 all-stars. But it's got a slew of well above average starters and is deeper than the others.

Point is, drafts come in all shapes and sizes. And you can't really know until 3-4 years in whether the experts got it wrong or right. Some are obvious calls like 2017 and 2018. Some like 2016 and 2024 aren't.