RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Ray Allen)

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RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Ray Allen) 

Post#1 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Dec 16, 2023 7:09 pm

Our system is now as follows:

1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.

2. Nomination vote now works the same way.

3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.

4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):

Spoiler:
AEnigma
Ambrose
ceilng raiser
ceoofkobefans
Clyde Frazier
Colbinii
cupcakesnake
Doctor MJ
Dooley
DQuinn1575
Dr Positivity
DraymondGold
Dutchball97
f4p
falcolombardi
Fundamentals21
Gibson22
HeartBreakKid
homecourtloss
iggymcfrack
LA Bird
JimmyFromNz
Joao Saraiva
lessthanjake
Lou Fan
Moonbeam
Narigo
OhayoKD
OldSchoolNoBull
penbeast0
Rishkar
rk2023
Samurai
ShaqAttac
Taj FTW
Tim Lehrbach
trelos6
trex_8063
ty 4191
WintaSoldier1
ZeppelinPage


Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):

Ray Allen
Image

Paul Arizin
Image

Joel Embiid
Image

George Gervin
Image

Nate Thurmond
Image

As requested, here's the current list so far along with the historical spreadsheet of previous projects:

Current List
Historical Spreadsheet
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/19/2023) 

Post#2 » by penbeast0 » Sat Dec 16, 2023 7:27 pm

Vote: Joel Embiid Best of the bigs on both ends and in a tougher era. Multiple MVP; main concern is limited games and a lack of a powerful playoff run.

Alternate vote: Nate Thurmond -- my trouble with Thurmond is that I think Bobby Jones was probably more impactful (less on defense but making it up on offense) and no one else is even thinking of him, but . . .from Arizin's era to Thurmond's is one of the NBA's big jumps and I think Nate just got unlucky being in the same era as Russ and Wilt to some degree. Ray Allen just wasn't that special an offensive player, more very good than great, and nothing to write home about on defense, Gervin was a great scorer for his day but had with little playmaking and little defensive effort. Convince me that either Allen or Gervin had stronger impact numbers rather than just being scorers and I'll switch my vote as I'm not a big Thurmond fan.


Nominate: Bobby Jones. More than a decade of straight 1st team All-Defense votes combined with high efficiency, though not high volume scoring, and good playmaking. Not a great rebounder for his position but could play 2-5 at either end. Probably the greatest glue guy in NBA history and in his time where he was the best player on his team (75 and 76 for example), his team was the best in the league both years though they came up short in the playoffs. The most 1st team All-Defense awards, best player on two Nugget teams that had the best record in the NBA (though both came up short in the playoffs), great efficiency without being just an inside scorer, excellent passer, decent offensive rebounder, defensively good at blocking out rather than getting the board, good shot blocker for a forward, good steals, could play up to the 5 or down to the 2, limited minutes because of a physical condition but probably the greatest glue guy in the history of the NBA.

Basically a more consistent version of Draymond Green defensively with efficient offense and a great attitude but in a weaker era. Another take from a previous project:

LA Bird wrote:....

Bobby Jones
Low minutes played is the main reason why Jones isn't ranked higher but I should point out Ginobili played pretty much the same amount of minutes and was voted in 15+ rounds ago. Jones leading Denver to the #1 record in his two ABA seasons (61 win rate) while averaging ~33 minutes a game is rarely mentioned as he seemed to be more remembered for his 6th man role in his later years. Offensively, he has one of the highest career TS% (60.7) and his assists (3.5 per 36), assist/turnover (~1.34) are both great for power forwards. Jones's scoring peaked at 19 ppg per 36 in 81 so it's not like his scoring efficiency was only high because of selective shots and extremely low usage like a DeAndre Jordan. Defensively, Jones is one of the best help defenders of all time and his 10 All-Defensive first team selections is a record that's likely to stand for a very long time. His raw plus minus stats are elite and will probably look even better if we had stats from his Nuggets seasons:

Net on-off
79: +3.4
80: +8.4
81: +10.8
82: +4.2
83: +11.0
84: +7.6
85: +10.4
86: +3.8


Alt: Pau Gasol: Even without international play, taking the Lakers to those titles with Kobe is impressive and a strong #2 which I prefer to a bad #1.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/19/2023) 

Post#3 » by WintaSoldier1 » Sat Dec 16, 2023 7:30 pm

I’d like to generate some serious Arizin and George Gervin support here!

Either one being on the list as this respective spot is fine, Gervin’s game is tantalizing by the way he just “counter-punches” the defense with amazing pace, confidence and selection. Arizin was flat out just ahead of his time and looked like a basketball player while everyone else was still just trying to get the ball in the Hoop.

Embidd is also a fine choice for me, no real complaints about him at this point even if I can refer back to some of my earlier posts about his game, but I also think he’s a victim of his environment in a negative way in some sorts.

I don’t see Thurmond or Ray Allen being competitive in respect to myself for this spot; I’m willing to go any of the 3, firstly Arizin then George then Embidd but it doesn’t truly matter.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/19/2023) 

Post#4 » by AEnigma » Sat Dec 16, 2023 7:32 pm

VOTE: Ray Allen
Alternate: George Gervin
NOMINATE: Dave Cowens
AltNom: Isiah Thomas

AEnigma wrote:I continue to be confused by the lack of support for Cowens. We have seen titles for Barry and Gilmore give them a relatively secure standing, and I think it is difficult to argue against Cowens as the top player on the 1976 Celtics even if people are split on him versus Havlicek in 1974. His impact is clear, consistently showcasing twenty-win lift on a Celtics team that otherwise looked mediocre (when contending) to bad (when not) without Cowens. And he is very much a sort of precursor to Draymond, nominated several rounds ago, in how he was a somewhat undersized defensive anchor frequently taking a lead playmaking role to make use of his team’s strong off-ball wings.

Those who read my posts toward the end of the Peaks Project have already seen me post this article, but for those who have not, this is one of my favourite accounts of him:
Spoiler:
Cort Reynolds wrote: He may not have been named MVP of the NBA Finals in 1974 or 1976, but undersized Hall of Fame Boston center Dave Cowens was the key force in winning both clinching games of those memorable championship series for the Celtics.

In the 1970's no one played harder for Boston, or anyone else for that matter, with apologies to Jerry Sloan, Norm Van Lier and Dave DeBusschere, than the fiery 6-8.5 redhead.

In game seven of the epic 1974 NBA Finals, the Celtics faced the tall task of beating Milwaukee on the road. Buck center Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was in his youthful prime and enjoyed nearly a six-inch height advantage - which was probably close to a foot when reach is included - over Cowens.



The Bucks had forced a seventh game by winning a double overtime classic in Boston just two days earlier, when Jabbar's long running baseline hook over Celtic backup center Hank Finkel gave Milwaukee a see-saw 102-101 victory.

Cowens had fouled out earlier in overtime, or the outcome may well have been different, with the Celtics likely celebrating title number 12 at home.

John Havlicek had traded baskets with the 7-2 Jabbar throughout the final extra session, scoring nine of his 36 points in the second OT, but Kareem got the last shot in.

Yet a hustling play by Cowens that came to epitomize his career happened late in that classic sixth contest. Dave switched off on a pick defensively to cover Robertson, then used his quick hands to poke the ball away from the Hall of Famer.

The speedy center then out-sprinted the 6-5 guard for the loose ball, which rolled into the backcourt. Cowens dove for the ball and slid with it near the sidelines while the loose leather bobbled in and out of his arms. Oscar trailed the play and never left his feet, almost in disbelief at the bigger man's reckless dive.

Cowens left a sweat streak about 10 feet long on the old Garden parquet, probably along with some skin. While the Bucks argued that he never had possession of the ball, the referees correctly ruled that the 24-second clock had nevertheless run out to give Boston the ball.

Not long after, Cowens fouled out with just 13 points on five of 19 shooting, and his absence contributed to the series-tying Buck win. Determined to redeem himself, the proud Celtic star came out firing in game seven.

Boston came up with a new strategy to aid Dave. The Boston braintrust decided to pressure the aging Robertson hard with defensive ace Don Chaney while he brought the ball upcourt.

And then once Milwaukee was into its halfcourt offense, coach Tom Heinsohn had Paul Silas, Havlicek and others also double down and help while Cowens fronted and battled Jabbar for position.

After he was told about the change in defensive strategy, Dave would relate years later in an interview that he felt like saying, "Yes! I am finally going to get some help on this guy."

After having the redhead go one-on-one for six games with the much bigger man who was the total focal point of their offense, Jabbar had averaged almost 34 points per game, so the Celtic brass felt it had to try something.

By not having to expend as much energy defending the 7-2 Jabbar alone, it seemed as if Cowens had been unchained and energized for the decisive contest.

On offense, the muscular Cowens used his superior speed and quickness to take the slower Jabbar out on the floor and drive by him, taking advantage of Kareem's relative lack of lateral quickness.

The high-leaping, aggressive Cowens won the opening jump over Jabbar and tapped it it to Havlicek, who fed a cutting Chaney perfectly for a layup that set an immediate, positive tone in the contest for the Celtics.

As time ran out in the first period, Dave bombed a 25-footer from the right side at the buzzer that went straight in to give Boston a 22-20 lead.

The Celtics lengthened the lead late in the half as their defense stymied Jabbar and Robertson. Dave triggered the vaunted Celtic fast break with a defensive rebound and airborne outlet pass that led to a 16-footer by Don Nelson.

Shortly afterward, Cowens nailed consecutive foul line jumpers that gave the visitors a 53-40 intermission edge. Their defensive strategy, cooked up between games six and seven by Celtic patriarch Red Auerbach, Heinsohn and the legendary Bob Cousy, was working almost to perfection.

Robertson, who had played for Cousy in Cincinnati before their falling out led to the Big O's trade to Milwaukee, was hounded into perhaps the worst playoff game of his career at a very inopportune time.

If nothing else, the all-court pressure put on by the quicker Celtics rushed the Bucks and took vital seconds off the shot clock, forcing hurried decisions and field goal tries. With veteran leader and playmaker Robertson flustered, the Buck offense floundered.

As a result, scoring machine Jabbar was amazingly held without a single point in the entire second stanza and for half of the third period. This was a major drought when one realizes that Kareem came into game seven averaging his number per outing in the 1974 playoffs (33).



At the other end, Boston closed the door with a clever bit of body control and quick reactions. Cowens missed a half hook in the lane that richocheted off Jabbar's hands to a nearly-prone Westphal, who was just getting up off the hardwood after being floored while setting a screen.

Paul then hung in the air as he looked to shoot a short jumper over the looming 7-2 Buck center. But at the last second, he double-clutched and instead tossed a beautifully improvised short alley-oop pass to Cowens past Jabbar. Dave caught the ball in the air on the right side of the lane and cleverly kissed it in off glass before Kareem could recover. That was the final nail in the Milwaukee coffin.



Havlicek, who enjoyed a great series, was named Finals MVP even though he tallied a modest 16 points on six of 20 shooting in the decisive contest.

His second fourth quarter three-point play on a foul line jumper as he was hit in the stomach capped a decisive 11-0 spurt that put the game well out of reach, 98-79.

But the game seven MVP was definitely Big Red. The final box score showed Cowens with game-high totals of 28 points and 14 rebounds, compared to 26 and 13 for Jabbar.

Yet the considerable numbers did not show his great intangible contribution, as well. Or how much energy the fiery redhead had supplied his team. Nor how his defense had helped Kareem wear down and fade. He sank just six of 11 free throws in the game and went scoreless for over a third of the game in the crucial middle section when Boston took command.

Or how Cowens had ignited the deadly Celtic transition game with his defensive rebounding and quick outlet bullets, often firing his passes in midair while coming down with the carom.



Due in large part to the scrambling defensive strategy of Boston, Jabbar only took 21 shots in the decisive seventh contest, six below his series average for attempts to that point.

He also converted only 10 field goals after making 14.5 baskets per contest over the first six games - well below his 54 percent shooting accuracy to that point in the title series.



The grueling style of play that the speedy 1970's Celtics employed, in concert with a short bench and going deep into the playoffs each year (and thus having shorter off-seasons), had started to take a toll on the club. Plus, team captain Havlicek and sixth man Don Nelson were each 36.

In 1976, a grizzled Boston squad fought its way to the Finals despite a foot injury to Havlicek. It was the 13th Celtic championship series appearance in 20 years, and the last before the Larry Bird era.



It was Cowens who took over and scored seven points in a clutch 9-4 Celtic spurt that clinched the crown.

Despite being plagued with five fouls, the redhead gambled and came up with the biggest play of the game. As Adams drove along the right side of the lane, Dave dangerously reached in and poked the ball away from the Rookie of the Year, lunging to tip the loose sphere away from Adams.

He then snatched up the loose ball and dribbled, or more accurately roared, 80 feet upcourt at top speed on a 2 on 1 fast break, a runaway red-headed center locomotive.

As he approached the basket, the Celtic center crossed over to the right side and gave a slight head fake to freeze defender Heard. Dave then laid in a twisting backhanded layup over his shoulder while being fouled. He cashed in the free throw to give Boston a 71-67 lead and a huge momentum swing.

After a Phoenix score, Dave sealed Adams outside the low block and took a perfectly timed top-side feed from Charlie Scott before converting a right-handed layin for a 73-69 advantage.

Cowens then forced a bad miss by Adams by hotly contesting his 15-footer. Adams later canned two foul shots to cut the lead back to two. Yet Havlicek swished a clutch 18-footer from the left wing to make it 75-71.

After a Westphal miss, Dave took an entry pass and spun quickly along the right baseline with his trademark move past Adams for a pretty layup. The pet move gave Boston a little breathing room with a 77-71 margin at the 3:29 mark.

White banked in a tough right side runner and added a free throw to stretch the lead to nine, and it was all over but the shouting as Boston ultimately held on to win, 87-80.

After the final buzzer sounded, a tired Cowens hugged retiring teammate Nelson as they strode off the court as champions for the last time. For Nellie, it was a satisfying fifth ring after being released by the Lakers over a decade earlier.

With White struggling and Hondo hurt, it was clearly the clutch late offensive burst from Cowens that capped banner number 13. His aggressive, all-out defense also led to a drought of over five minutes without a basket for the Suns down the stretch.

Even though Dave scored 21 points in the decisive win, paced the defense and led all players in rebounds during the series while averaging 20.5 ppg, teammate JoJo White (21.7 ppg) was named Finals MVP.

Yet in true Cowens fashion, Dave probably didn't care that much, as long as Boston won. He was simply about winning, an undersized center who won on great athleticism (strength, speed, quickness and jumping ability), high basketball intelligence, skill, and a burning desire as bright as his red mane.

"There is no player with greater desire than Dave Cowens," said CBS commentator and fiery Hall of Famer Rick Barry during the 1976 Finals.

A powerful leaper, Cowens frequently won jump balls against much taller centers like Jabbar and an older Chamberlain, and used great positioning to frustrate Kareem and occasionally block his shots as well by forcing him to turn back to his right shoulder, away from his patented hook.

Back then a center jump ball was held at the start of each quarter, and if that rule seems antiquated, consider that the original rules up through the 1930's required that there be a center jump after every basket. So each quarter jump ball could be a key extra possession gained.

As Havlicek, who played the first seven seasons of his career with the great Bill Russell and then his final eight with Cowens, the 1970-71 co-Rookie of the Year, once said - "no one ever did more for the Celtics than Dave Cowens."

In the post-game six locker room TV interviews with CBS, Havlicek reinforced this claim. "We were able to keep Dave on the floor (not foul out), and that made the difference," said Hondo.

Unfortunately, Dave's all-out style and annual deep playoff runs eventually contributed to his body breaking down by the time he reached his early 30's.



Heinsohn, who after the death of Red Auerbach assumed the mantel of Mr. Celtic after 50-plus years as star player, championship coach and team announcer, called his 1970's Boston teams "the quickest of all Celtic clubs."

As such he designed a revolutionary point center/forward type of up-tempo offense to take advantage of the extraordinary blend of skills, athleticism and desire of his speedy red-headed center and Havlicek, as well as the sharpshooting White.

Those Celtics did not have a true point guard. White, Chaney and Havlicek shared the ballhandling duties, while Cowens often directed the offense from the top of the key with his passing, driving and shooting ability.
Ray has been my top wing on the board since Pierce was admitted. High impact, long prime and career, compared favourably well to Reggie in his prime and then to useful career roleplayers like Kyle Korver when he exited his prime. Better ballhandler and playmaker than most other off-ball shooting guard contemporaries or predecessors. Okay with Gervin as an alternate, but I think Ray was more dynamic in an absolute sense, was more valuable in an impact sense, and lacked the team disappointments Gervin had when assessing their status relative to their respective eras.

After Cowens, the next three names on my board are Isiah, Hayes, and Mourning. Isiah seems like the easiest case right now. His passing gets overshadowed by Magic, but I think he has a strong argument as a top three on-ball creator of the 20th century. Captained consistently potent postseason offences, with something like an average +5 relative mark throughout his entire postseason prime. With his overall significance to the sport, I am very comfortable trying to induct him into the top 60 — and for my personal list, he has been a mainstay at #50.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/19/2023) 

Post#5 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Dec 16, 2023 7:54 pm

WintaSoldier1 wrote:I’d like to generate some serious Arizin and George Gervin support here!

Either one being on the list as this respective spot is fine, Gervin’s game is tantalizing by the way he just “counter-punches” the defense with amazing pace, confidence and selection. Arizin was flat out just ahead of his time and looked like a basketball player while everyone else was still just trying to get the ball in the Hoop.

Embidd is also a fine choice for me, no real complaints about him at this point even if I can refer back to some of my earlier posts about his game, but I also think he’s a victim of his environment in a negative way in some sorts.

I don’t see Thurmond or Ray Allen being competitive in respect to myself for this spot; I’m willing to go any of the 3, firstly Arizin then George then Embidd but it doesn’t truly matter.


I think I'll be deciding between Gervin & Allen for my 2nd vote here.

ftr, I don't think it's a given that Allen is "too low" given that he hasn't been voted in just yet, but I do wonder if circumstances have conspired to make people not realize how good Allen was:

1. In Milwaukee, he wasn't supposed to be the franchise player - Glenn Robinson was - so he was never really hyped like he could have been.

2. The league as a whole didn't yet realize that 3>2, and so they didn't fully appreciate what Allen was doing as they focused on taking shots worth less. Included in "the league" would be the Bucks...

3. who thought they would be better if they got traded away Allen for Payton. (The coach, George Karl, was a big factor here I believe. Karl and Allen didn't see eye to eye, and Payton was Karl's guy from Seattle. Karl was fired at season's end.)

4. I think there's a bit of a Kareem-thing going on where Allen's ability to remain an outstanding tertiary star for a long time caused people to think that what he did in those later years was all he could do.

So yeah, I think Allen's got a good case against any of the remaining guys, including my guy Arizin. He lacks the "best player in the world" type of peak that Arizin had, but era strength aside, Ray's longevity is quite nice.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/19/2023) 

Post#6 » by WintaSoldier1 » Sat Dec 16, 2023 8:06 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
WintaSoldier1 wrote:I’d like to generate some serious Arizin and George Gervin support here!

Either one being on the list as this respective spot is fine, Gervin’s game is tantalizing by the way he just “counter-punches” the defense with amazing pace, confidence and selection. Arizin was flat out just ahead of his time and looked like a basketball player while everyone else was still just trying to get the ball in the Hoop.

Embidd is also a fine choice for me, no real complaints about him at this point even if I can refer back to some of my earlier posts about his game, but I also think he’s a victim of his environment in a negative way in some sorts.

I don’t see Thurmond or Ray Allen being competitive in respect to myself for this spot; I’m willing to go any of the 3, firstly Arizin then George then Embidd but it doesn’t truly matter.


I think I'll be deciding between Gervin & Allen for my 2nd vote here.

ftr, I don't think it's a given that Allen is "too low" given that he hasn't been voted in just yet, but I do wonder if circumstances have conspired to make people not realize how good Allen was:

1. In Milwaukee, he wasn't supposed to be the franchise player - Glenn Robinson was - so he was never really hyped like he could have been.

2. The league as a whole didn't yet realize that 3>2, and so they didn't fully appreciate what Allen was doing as they focused on taking shots worth less. Included in "the league" would be the Bucks...

3. who thought they would be better if they got traded away Allen for Payton. (The coach, George Karl, was a big factor here I believe. Karl and Allen didn't see eye to eye, and Payton was Karl's guy from Seattle. Karl was fired at season's end.)

4. I think there's a bit of a Kareem-thing going on where Allen's ability to remain an outstanding tertiary star for a long time caused people to think that what he did in those later years was all he could do.

So yeah, I think Allen's got a good case against any of the remaining guys, including my guy Arizin. He lacks the "best player in the world" type of peak that Arizin had, but era strength aside, Ray's longevity is quite nice.


1. I’m relatively young so the only Ray I bore witness to was the 2010 Celtics and Beyond… How does the burden of expectations affect your analysis of a player.? I think basketball along with many sports is a largely psychological/mental sport and secondly physical. Since Ray never reached the finals as the first option, do you believe because was never forced to carry the same expectations as the players were comparing to he has a competitive edge as we may look at him in a better light?

2. I’m unsure of this is fair to Ray. As in while it’s important to consider environmental factors( lack of 3>2 rhetoric) at the end of the day… I still believe you can only focus on self. And explanation does not warrant absence of identify it an excuse it only offers a remedy to the problem.

3. This is also back to the burden of expectations, it’s similar to one for me in rhetoric so I won’t spend too much space on it, but I wanted to acknowledge the fact I did consider it.

4. So the burden of expectation working in reverse, in some sense? I mean I can understand the lack of appreciation for his game based on the lack of opportunity he was given( because playing with the talent around him); But capacity does not equate to execution. Since Ray was able to capture success with the Celtics taking a lesser role, even if he was able to do things outside of his usual role, if he didn’t do them I won’t give him extra-credit for phenomena he could do. But if you’re arguing we didn’t see the actions because we were so focused on what his role was, instead of what he was actually doing I could buy that: As usual I have to watch his tape anyways.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/19/2023) 

Post#7 » by penbeast0 » Sat Dec 16, 2023 8:17 pm

AEnigma wrote:VOTE: Ray Allen
Alternate: George Gervin
NOMINATE: Dave Cowens
AltNom: Isiah Thomas
...


We have had some posters show strong on/off numbers for Thurmond, if Ray Allen and George Gervin are equally high impact, how do their WOWY numbers (or any better impact measures if they exist) compare. It would seem Thurmond impacts both defensively (man and rim) and rebounding; I don't see anything outside of scoring that makes either Allen or Gervin special.

Gervin, I believe, is the player that was quoted as saying that defense is for those who can't score which tells you something about his approach to the game. On the other hand, he was both prolific and efficient, unlike a Dominique Wilkens type wing.

Although, if that's what you seek, neither Gervin nor Allen was as prolific or efficient as Adrian Dantley and, unlike Gervin, Dantley had a coach in Detroit in Chuck Daly who publicly complemented his defense and work ethic (though he also had one in Utah in Frank Layden who publicly slammed them).

Same goes for Isiah. Where is the evidence that he was the engine that made Detroit a powerhouse in the championship years (his numbers are much stronger earlier) or was he like Allen Iverson being carried by a great defense and coaching job.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/19/2023) 

Post#8 » by AEnigma » Sat Dec 16, 2023 8:38 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
AEnigma wrote:VOTE: Ray Allen
Alternate: George Gervin
NOMINATE: Dave Cowens
AltNom: Isiah Thomas
...

We have had some posters show strong on/off numbers for Thurmond, if Ray Allen and George Gervin are equally high impact, how do their WOWY numbers (or any better impact measures if they exist) compare. It would seem Thurmond impacts both defensively (man and rim) and rebounding; I don't see anything outside of scoring that makes either Allen or Gervin special.

Well we have that data for Allen and it is indeed very good, but these are career votes more than anything. I have repeatedly said Thurmond’s missed postseasons because of injury weigh against him for me. Healthy prime Thurmond, sure, no question.

Gervin, I believe, is the player that was quoted as saying that defense is for those who can't score which tells you something about his approach to the game. On the other hand, he was both prolific and efficient, unlike a Dominique Wilkens type wing.

Although, if that's what you seek, neither Gervin nor Allen was as prolific or efficient as Adrian Dantley and, unlike Gervin, Dantley had a coach in Detroit in Chuck Daly who publicly complemented his defense and work ethic (though he also had one in Utah in Frank Layden who publicly slammed them).

I think Gervin fit on teams more naturally than Dantley did and again from a career lens I think he provided more value. What Gervin produced at his postseason peak also impressed me more, and while we can criticise Gervin for never being good enough to break through with the teams he did have, he was still a much more successful lead player than Dantley was.

Same goes for Isiah. Where is the evidence that he was the engine that made Detroit a powerhouse in the championship years (his numbers are much stronger earlier) or was he like Allen Iverson being carried by a great defense and coaching job.

Well trex covered some of the impact considerations (thank you for the unintentional reminder to edit in a link to his post), and aside from the purer WOWY data, I think it says quite a bit that the Pistons kind-of collapsed as a truly relevant postseason presence as soon as he fell off (as opposed to suffering from an outright absence). The Pistons were a good enough team to make the playoffs even when he struggled, but I see little to suggest that other point guards would have brought the Pistons to those heights. There is no point guard in that era other than Magic whom I would trust more than Isiah in a postseason series.

Being better earlier is not too significant to me either. Most titles are not won at a player’s absolute peak, and Isiah did at least improve as a defender to offset some of the loss in his quickness.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/19/2023) 

Post#9 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Dec 16, 2023 8:44 pm

WintaSoldier1 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
WintaSoldier1 wrote:I’d like to generate some serious Arizin and George Gervin support here!

Either one being on the list as this respective spot is fine, Gervin’s game is tantalizing by the way he just “counter-punches” the defense with amazing pace, confidence and selection. Arizin was flat out just ahead of his time and looked like a basketball player while everyone else was still just trying to get the ball in the Hoop.

Embidd is also a fine choice for me, no real complaints about him at this point even if I can refer back to some of my earlier posts about his game, but I also think he’s a victim of his environment in a negative way in some sorts.

I don’t see Thurmond or Ray Allen being competitive in respect to myself for this spot; I’m willing to go any of the 3, firstly Arizin then George then Embidd but it doesn’t truly matter.


I think I'll be deciding between Gervin & Allen for my 2nd vote here.

ftr, I don't think it's a given that Allen is "too low" given that he hasn't been voted in just yet, but I do wonder if circumstances have conspired to make people not realize how good Allen was:

1. In Milwaukee, he wasn't supposed to be the franchise player - Glenn Robinson was - so he was never really hyped like he could have been.

2. The league as a whole didn't yet realize that 3>2, and so they didn't fully appreciate what Allen was doing as they focused on taking shots worth less. Included in "the league" would be the Bucks...

3. who thought they would be better if they got traded away Allen for Payton. (The coach, George Karl, was a big factor here I believe. Karl and Allen didn't see eye to eye, and Payton was Karl's guy from Seattle. Karl was fired at season's end.)

4. I think there's a bit of a Kareem-thing going on where Allen's ability to remain an outstanding tertiary star for a long time caused people to think that what he did in those later years was all he could do.

So yeah, I think Allen's got a good case against any of the remaining guys, including my guy Arizin. He lacks the "best player in the world" type of peak that Arizin had, but era strength aside, Ray's longevity is quite nice.


1. I’m relatively young so the only Ray I bore witness to was the 2010 Celtics and Beyond… How does the burden of expectations affect your analysis of a player.? I think basketball along with many sports is a largely psychological/mental sport and secondly physical. Since Ray never reached the finals as the first option, do you believe because was never forced to carry the same expectations as the players were comparing to he has a competitive edge as we may look at him in a better light?

2. I’m unsure of this is fair to Ray. As in while it’s important to consider environmental factors( lack of 3>2 rhetoric) at the end of the day… I still believe you can only focus on self. And explanation does not warrant absence an excuse it only offers a remedy to the problem.

3. This is also back to the burden of expectations, it’s similar to one for me in rhetoric so I won’t spend too much space on it, but I wanted to acknowledge the fact I did consider it.

4. So the burden of expectation working in reverse, in some sense? I mean I can understand the lack of appreciation for his game based on the lack of opportunity he was given( because playing with the talent around him); But capacity does not equate to execution. Since Ray was able to capture success with the Celtics taking a lesser role, even if he was able to do things outside of his usual role, if he didn’t do them I won’t give him extra-credit for phenomena he can do. But if you’re arguing we didn’t see the actions because we were so focused on what his role was, instead of what he was actually doing I could buy that: As usual I have to watch his tape anyways.


1. Hmm. I'm not entirely sure what you mean here. It sounds like you're asking whether I believe in "rounding down" my assessment of a player's achievement because he had less pressure on him, and my answer there would be No. I think it's worthwhile to talk about the effect that expectation can have on a player's maturation, but in the end, he achieves what he achieves.

To go on a slight tangent here, something I'm wont to point out is that most NBA players are forced to take on a significantly different and lower primacy role than what they played that got them into the NBA.

Some players have no capacity for doing this and thus you can have a phenomenon where the better college teammate is the worse NBA player. An interesting example of this are the core players on the '08-09 North Carolina college team where Danny Green was the 4th scoring option, and shot less efficiently than each of the 3 guys (Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington) ahead of him in the pecking order, yet in the pros Green had the best career of the bunch by a wide margin. So Green goes from being a college role player to a pro role player, and it all goes swimmingly...while his college teammates fall by the wayside. (Caveat: Lawson's alcoholism was a factor here too.)

More interesting though are the situations where a guy seems like he ought to have the talent to play a variety of roles, but he begins with an expectation of being a superstar and doesn't seem to ever accept that he isn't that guy - and thus should focus on applying his gifts in other places. OJ Mayo is a guy like this. It's possible he really couldn't have made it as a role player, but after being hyped as "the next LeBron", he really seemed to approach his entire NBA career focused on proving that he was indeed a superstar talent. After his first team decided he wasn't that guy he "bet on himself" taking a cheap one-year deal on another team when he probably could have gotten more money per year on a long-term deal, and then after that eventually got a 2-year ban after repeated violations of NBA drug policy - which granted, the final one I don't think they said what it was, but he was banned previously for steroid use - and he never made it back in the league.

I'll stop there on that point and you can respond to clarify further if you so choose.

2. I'm confused about the idea of being "unfair to Ray". I'm saying he was more valuable than people then realized. I'm worrying that we're talking past each other.

3. Not sure what to say. To be clear I'm saying the Bucks were incredibly foolish to trade away the best franchise player prospect they arguably ever had in the time between Kareem & Giannis. (There are other candidates here like Marques, Moncrief & Bogut that we could consider, but Allen has a case.)

4. Okay so I'm literally not talking about what Allen could have done at all in my post. I'm talking about people seeing Allen as a lower tier player than he actually was for a variety of reasons - with my 4th point being about people thinking that old Allen was all Allen ever was.

Let me end by pointing to a particular stat here.

TS Add is what basketball-reference calls their stat that estimates how many points a player added with the shots he took relative to what we'd expect if he had league average efficiency - so it factors in both volume & efficiency.

In '00-01, here's the leaderboard, along with with the player's team's ORtg ranking (that is ranking of the most effective offenses in the league) in parentheses:

1. Ray Allen (1st)
2. Dirk Nowitzki (4th)
3. Shaquille O'Neal (2nd)
4. Karl Malone (3rd)
5. Paul Pierce (17th)

I'd say a general rule is that if a player is on the best offense in the league and has the highest TS Add in the league, you should strongly consider whether he was the most valuable offensive player in the league that season. Hence, I don't think the issue here is that Allen was held back, but that people at the time didn't realize how much of an outlier Allen's performance was.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/19/2023) 

Post#10 » by penbeast0 » Sat Dec 16, 2023 11:48 pm

Does Ray Allen and the team's performance hold up over multiple years?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/19/2023) 

Post#11 » by trelos6 » Sat Dec 16, 2023 11:54 pm

Vote: Joel Embiid

Yes, he's still in his prime, but what he's accomplished over the last 5 seasons surpasses the careers of many. I love Ray Allen as a player, but he was basically a 12 year all star, with a couple of all NBA level seasons. Embiid has been in the MVP discussion for a few seasons and playing at an extremely high level on both ends.

Alt: Arizin

Terrific scorer in the 50's. Was basically very good his entire career. 26 pp75 on +5rTS% for 3 year PS peak. He was a big playoff riser in '56.

Nomination: Mutombo

Dikembe was a top 5-10 all time defender with a few seasons of passable production offensively.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/19/2023) 

Post#12 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Dec 17, 2023 12:48 am

penbeast0 wrote:Does Ray Allen and the team's performance hold up over multiple years?


Well, better than some, not as good as some others.

He's generally a great and efficient scorer and he's on a lot of quite good offenses and great teams in general.

I only have him in my Top 5 POY that one year, and only have him in my Top 3 OPOY twice - and he only makes these on the Bucks. Guys like Arizin & Gervin fair considerably better in that kind of rare air for me, and as I've said I really don't have serious concerns about Arizin beyond longevity.

On Allen vs Gervin, I think the big thing I'm trying to chew on is whether there's something problematic about Gervin's game for deep playoff contenders relative to Allen, or this just winning bias?

Definitely not saying I think the difference in team performances here was primarily about the two guys here, but I do think Allen's game aged more gracefully than Gervin's did, and this relates to why contenders sought after him for a long time.

Now, I'd say I'm not the biggest longevity guy so I don't want to miss talking about peak and prime. Here the essence of the situation is this:

I'm not prepared to say that Allen had a higher peak than Gervin, but I'll say Allen was good enough that I'm not certain that the answer was Gervin, and that makes me look back toward the longevity.

Back to your question of the hold-up of Ray's peak, Gervin's holds up better. Depending on one's criteria, I could see that sway things.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/19/2023) 

Post#13 » by HeartBreakKid » Sun Dec 17, 2023 7:39 am

My vote is for Joel Embiid - God like regular season player but hasn't quite put it together in the post season yet. Hard to say if his game is legitimately not transferable or if injuries are playing a factor in his decline. Either way, it seems like as a scorer he is on another level from nearly everyone left while still being a versatile player.

My alternate vote is for Paul Arizin - I'm not as high on Paul as I used to be but he still was more or less the best player in the league at one point. He won the title as "the guy" and did so playing very well. Paul was alright as an older player, ups and downs for sure. Very impressive player to look at film compared to his competition, seems like he was way ahead of his time. I'd favor him over the defensive specialist like Thurmond/Payton.

Enigma made a lot of good points with Thurmond which reinstated my faith in voting for him. I'll likely switch back to Nate if Paul gets in.

Finally got around to reading some Butler arguments. I'm boosting him up my ranks but not to the point where I'd vote for him yet.


Ray Allen - He's a case of a player who was good for a very long time but not truly great. This type of player doesn't score well on my criteria. I'm almost always going to favor a guy who is best in the world over someone who was not in that tier. Arizin and Embiid fit that description, Ray Allen was more of a borderline top ten guy, albeit his skill set was under utilized.

Gervin - I've never been convinced that Gervin was a great player, so hopefully this time around is when it happens. Just seems like such a one dimensional player, and I don't know if his scoring is enough to overcome all those negatives AND be placed above the top 60 best players. I'm incline to think that he likely gave up a lot on defense - I know someone is gonna be like "ACTUALLY HE WASNT THAT BAD and it's like come on...he literally said he doesn't play defense lol.


My nomination is for Willis Reed

My alternate nomination is for Bill Walton
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/19/2023) 

Post#14 » by penbeast0 » Sun Dec 17, 2023 1:48 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:My vote is for Joel Embiid - God like regular season player but hasn't quite put it together in the post season yet. Hard to say if his game is legitimately not transferable or if injuries are playing a factor in his decline. Either way, it seems like as a scorer he is on another level from nearly everyone left while still being a versatile player.

My alternate vote is for Paul Arizin - I'm not as high on Paul as I used to be but he still was more or less the best player in the league at one point. He won the title as "the guy" and did so playing very well. Paul was alright as an older player, ups and downs for sure. Very impressive player to look at film compared to his competition, seems like he was way ahead of his time. I'd favor him over the defensive specialist like Thurmond/Payton.

Enigma made a lot of good points with Thurmond which reinstated my faith in voting for him. I'll likely switch back to Nate if Paul gets in.

Finally got around to reading some Butler arguments. I'm boosting him up my ranks but not to the point where I'd vote for him yet.


Ray Allen - He's a case of a player who was good for a very long time but not truly great. This type of player doesn't score well on my criteria. I'm almost always going to favor a guy who is best in the world over someone who was not in that tier. Arizin and Embiid fit that description, Ray Allen was more of a borderline top ten guy, albeit his skill set was under utilized.

Gervin - I've never been convinced that Gervin was a great player, so hopefully this time around is when it happens. Just seems like such a one dimensional player, and I don't know if his scoring is enough to overcome all those negatives AND be placed above the top 60 best players. I'm incline to think that he likely gave up a lot on defense - I know someone is gonna be like "ACTUALLY HE WASNT THAT BAD and it's like come on...he literally said he doesn't play defense lol.


My nomination is for Willis Reed

My alternate nomination is for Bill Walton


To be fair to Gervin, it was probably self-deprecating humor when he said it. Barkley got in and he made a comment about how there was no more competition for himself as worst defender in the league when Larry Bird retired.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/19/2023) 

Post#15 » by iggymcfrack » Sun Dec 17, 2023 4:41 pm

Pretty sure I’m going to be voting for Ray Allen here. I was looking at his pre-Boston playoff numbers the other day and they’re absolutely insane. 7.5 BPM with a +23.0 on/off across his time in Milwaukee and Seattle. Because he had more team success in Boston and Miami we tend to remember the diminished version more, but he was a top level superduperstar in his prime who had tremendous longevity as well.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/19/2023) 

Post#16 » by homecourtloss » Sun Dec 17, 2023 5:01 pm

Some relevant player 5 year WoWY windows from @Moonbeam.

For Paul Arizin:

Moonbeam wrote:- Philadelphia Warriors
Key players: Paul Arizin, Neil Johnston, Jack George, Tom Gola, Wilt Chamberlain

Image


Nate Thurmond looks really strong:

Image
Image

The Iceman doesn’t really have much off samples as he pretty much played every game; he only shows up once in the top 100 in moonbeam’s Ridge set:

Image

Then we have Dave Cowens:

Moonbeam wrote:- Boston Celtics
Key players: John Havlicek, Dave Cowens, Jo Jo White, Paul Silas, Don Chaney, Don Nelson

Image
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/19/2023) 

Post#17 » by homecourtloss » Sun Dec 17, 2023 5:24 pm

Vote: Nate Thurmond
Alt vote: Joel Embiid
Nomination: Dave Cowens

Nate Thurmond

When you watch Thurmond play, you can see his seemingly innate ability to read the game and anticipate opponents' moves/movement. The offensive schemes at the time that he played called for a certain type of defense, but I think that he would’ve also been great defensively in an open space and pace game because of his high basketball, IQ and understanding of opponents’ strategies that allow him to disrupt offensive actions opponent offensive actions. His strength and agility allowed him to guard players across multiple positions, making him a versatile defensive force. Then there was his relentless motor and as has been discussed before, any player with the motor like that combined with talent is a massive plus player, which the data that we have seems to bear out:

Image

Joel Embiid

I think by the time we do this again, Embiid will have shot up the rankings as a two-way impact player, who is getting better as a playmaker, and can completely dominate a game with 30 minutes worth of play. Imagine a player who can draw fouls at the rate that Shaquille O’Neal did, but shoot those free throws better than Michael Jordan did. But for now, I still have to put Nate Thurmond ahead of him. We obviously have concerns about playoffs efficacy, but you’re going to have a person here who overall looks to be in the top eight after this season in JE’s set.

Image

Dave Cowens:

Cowens played a modern game back on the ‘70s—a highly skilled, high motor, unselfish player who did things all over the court.

—He could challenge on guards on the perimeter
—He had endless motor that would be even more effective when playing shorter minutes (pace in his day was fast so he was running up down the court all game while playing heavy minutes)
—Ran in transition extremely well
—Was really strong and could defend inside even when young and looked more wiry than solid
—Great hands
—Great positioner for rebounds, had great rebound instincts
—Not the greatest rim protector but did contest shots well and had good length
—Could dribble and position himself for that beautiful lefty jumpshot
—Was a very good free throw shooter and midrange shooter who, I think, could develop a three point shot for today’s game
—Had tremendous upcourt instincts perfect for the game at the time. I love watching highlights of him grab rebounds and turn his head to look upcourt before he even lands with the ball
—Very good passer, great outlet passer

Image
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/19/2023) 

Post#18 » by WintaSoldier1 » Sun Dec 17, 2023 5:55 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
WintaSoldier1 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
I think I'll be deciding between Gervin & Allen for my 2nd vote here.

ftr, I don't think it's a given that Allen is "too low" given that he hasn't been voted in just yet, but I do wonder if circumstances have conspired to make people not realize how good Allen was:

1. In Milwaukee, he wasn't supposed to be the franchise player - Glenn Robinson was - so he was never really hyped like he could have been.

2. The league as a whole didn't yet realize that 3>2, and so they didn't fully appreciate what Allen was doing as they focused on taking shots worth less. Included in "the league" would be the Bucks...

3. who thought they would be better if they got traded away Allen for Payton. (The coach, George Karl, was a big factor here I believe. Karl and Allen didn't see eye to eye, and Payton was Karl's guy from Seattle. Karl was fired at season's end.)

4. I think there's a bit of a Kareem-thing going on where Allen's ability to remain an outstanding tertiary star for a long time caused people to think that what he did in those later years was all he could do.

So yeah, I think Allen's got a good case against any of the remaining guys, including my guy Arizin. He lacks the "best player in the world" type of peak that Arizin had, but era strength aside, Ray's longevity is quite nice.


1. I’m relatively young so the only Ray I bore witness to was the 2010 Celtics and Beyond… How does the burden of expectations affect your analysis of a player.? I think basketball along with many sports is a largely psychological/mental sport and secondly physical. Since Ray never reached the finals as the first option, do you believe because was never forced to carry the same expectations as the players were comparing to he has a competitive edge as we may look at him in a better light?

2. I’m unsure of this is fair to Ray. As in while it’s important to consider environmental factors( lack of 3>2 rhetoric) at the end of the day… I still believe you can only focus on self. And explanation does not warrant absence an excuse it only offers a remedy to the problem.

3. This is also back to the burden of expectations, it’s similar to one for me in rhetoric so I won’t spend too much space on it, but I wanted to acknowledge the fact I did consider it.

4. So the burden of expectation working in reverse, in some sense? I mean I can understand the lack of appreciation for his game based on the lack of opportunity he was given( because playing with the talent around him); But capacity does not equate to execution. Since Ray was able to capture success with the Celtics taking a lesser role, even if he was able to do things outside of his usual role, if he didn’t do them I won’t give him extra-credit for phenomena he can do. But if you’re arguing we didn’t see the actions because we were so focused on what his role was, instead of what he was actually doing I could buy that: As usual I have to watch his tape anyways.


1. Hmm. I'm not entirely sure what you mean here. It sounds like you're asking whether I believe in "rounding down" my assessment of a player's achievement because he had less pressure on him, and my answer there would be No. I think it's worthwhile to talk about the effect that expectation can have on a player's maturation, but in the end, he achieves what he achieves.

To go on a slight tangent here, something I'm wont to point out is that most NBA players are forced to take on a significantly different and lower primacy role than what they played that got them into the NBA.

Some players have no capacity for doing this and thus you can have a phenomenon where the better college teammate is the worse NBA player. An interesting example of this are the core players on the '08-09 North Carolina college team where Danny Green was the 4th scoring option, and shot less efficiently than each of the 3 guys (Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington) ahead of him in the pecking order, yet in the pros Green had the best career of the bunch by a wide margin. So Green goes from being a college role player to a pro role player, and it all goes swimmingly...while his college teammates fall by the wayside. (Caveat: Lawson's alcoholism was a factor here too.)

More interesting though are the situations where a guy seems like he ought to have the talent to play a variety of roles, but he begins with an expectation of being a superstar and doesn't seem to ever accept that he isn't that guy - and thus should focus on applying his gifts in other places. OJ Mayo is a guy like this. It's possible he really couldn't have made it as a role player, but after being hyped as "the next LeBron", he really seemed to approach his entire NBA career focused on proving that he was indeed a superstar talent. After his first team decided he wasn't that guy he "bet on himself" taking a cheap one-year deal on another team when he probably could have gotten more money per year on a long-term deal, and then after that eventually got a 2-year ban after repeated violations of NBA drug policy - which granted, the final one I don't think they said what it was, but he was banned previously for steroid use - and he never made it back in the league.

I'll stop there on that point and you can respond to clarify further if you so choose.

2. I'm confused about the idea of being "unfair to Ray". I'm saying he was more valuable than people then realized. I'm worrying that we're talking past each other.

3. Not sure what to say. To be clear I'm saying the Bucks were incredibly foolish to trade away the best franchise player prospect they arguably ever had in the time between Kareem & Giannis. (There are other candidates here like Marques, Moncrief & Bogut that we could consider, but Allen has a case.)

4. Okay so I'm literally not talking about what Allen could have done at all in my post. I'm talking about people seeing Allen as a lower tier player than he actually was for a variety of reasons - with my 4th point being about people thinking that old Allen was all Allen ever was.

Let me end by pointing to a particular stat here.

TS Add is what basketball-reference calls their stat that estimates how many points a player added with the shots he took relative to what we'd expect if he had league average efficiency - so it factors in both volume & efficiency.

In '00-01, here's the leaderboard, along with with the player's team's ORtg ranking (that is ranking of the most effective offenses in the league) in parentheses:

1. Ray Allen (1st)
2. Dirk Nowitzki (4th)
3. Shaquille O'Neal (2nd)
4. Karl Malone (3rd)
5. Paul Pierce (17th)

I'd say a general rule is that if a player is on the best offense in the league and has the highest TS Add in the league, you should strongly consider whether he was the most valuable offensive player in the league that season. Hence, I don't think the issue here is that Allen was held back, but that people at the time didn't realize how much of an outlier Allen's performance was.


1. Your post gives me insight to the way you're voting and why you vote a particular way[ This same reasoning can be applied to Jimmy B], Personally I consider the burden and weight of expectations when evaluating a player's ability. It's much easier to preform closer to your max capacity when you have nothing to lose when compared to carrying the burden of responsibility on your back; And I think when it comes to assessing players and the amount of load/production they can handle this is a integral aspect of game. Jimmy B is hardly any different in the RS v PS the only difference is he's more facilitatory and passive in he RS and looks to "assert his will" more in the PS.

2. No I understand you! You were saying Ray was more valuable then what was anticipated at the time, but I feel like that's revisionist history at some level(This phenomena applies to Reggie as well), Because of the lack information about 3>2 and other efficiency based metrics; I still like to think I account for those things and I as I will be referring to later they're still resonate with me but at the same time it's a bit unjust to be like "Yeah this guy was more valuable than what was assumed previously, because the team wasn't using him at a higher peak", I think the difference between our understanding at basketball from the mental perspective (how his tms and others on the court described and treated him) and you're taking a more "analytical" approach(as in quantitative data backed by evidence on the value of a player). Really good stuff right there

4. Your point about TS and leading the number one offense was really good, That's nothing something I think about often when analyzing a player. It may do me lots of good when referencing how "valuable" a player is to consider things you're referring to. I watched Ray highlights just before typing up this post, and he reminds me of Iverson without the extreme quickness and shiftyness but 8 inches taller and with a nice 3.

I think it's fair to believe Ray Allen was better than Iverson, Iverson had o do a lot of extra things to basically bully the opposing team mentally into giving him attention(and respecting his ability as a player) thus creating his "value", where as in Ray it feels so natural and benevolent. Really Ray feels like such a prototype( a very refined one) for the way the game would be played in modern day with his 3 level scoring, and spot hunting.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/19/2023) 

Post#19 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Dec 17, 2023 8:45 pm

WintaSoldier1 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
WintaSoldier1 wrote:
1. I’m relatively young so the only Ray I bore witness to was the 2010 Celtics and Beyond… How does the burden of expectations affect your analysis of a player.? I think basketball along with many sports is a largely psychological/mental sport and secondly physical. Since Ray never reached the finals as the first option, do you believe because was never forced to carry the same expectations as the players were comparing to he has a competitive edge as we may look at him in a better light?

2. I’m unsure of this is fair to Ray. As in while it’s important to consider environmental factors( lack of 3>2 rhetoric) at the end of the day… I still believe you can only focus on self. And explanation does not warrant absence an excuse it only offers a remedy to the problem.

3. This is also back to the burden of expectations, it’s similar to one for me in rhetoric so I won’t spend too much space on it, but I wanted to acknowledge the fact I did consider it.

4. So the burden of expectation working in reverse, in some sense? I mean I can understand the lack of appreciation for his game based on the lack of opportunity he was given( because playing with the talent around him); But capacity does not equate to execution. Since Ray was able to capture success with the Celtics taking a lesser role, even if he was able to do things outside of his usual role, if he didn’t do them I won’t give him extra-credit for phenomena he can do. But if you’re arguing we didn’t see the actions because we were so focused on what his role was, instead of what he was actually doing I could buy that: As usual I have to watch his tape anyways.


1. Hmm. I'm not entirely sure what you mean here. It sounds like you're asking whether I believe in "rounding down" my assessment of a player's achievement because he had less pressure on him, and my answer there would be No. I think it's worthwhile to talk about the effect that expectation can have on a player's maturation, but in the end, he achieves what he achieves.

To go on a slight tangent here, something I'm wont to point out is that most NBA players are forced to take on a significantly different and lower primacy role than what they played that got them into the NBA.

Some players have no capacity for doing this and thus you can have a phenomenon where the better college teammate is the worse NBA player. An interesting example of this are the core players on the '08-09 North Carolina college team where Danny Green was the 4th scoring option, and shot less efficiently than each of the 3 guys (Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington) ahead of him in the pecking order, yet in the pros Green had the best career of the bunch by a wide margin. So Green goes from being a college role player to a pro role player, and it all goes swimmingly...while his college teammates fall by the wayside. (Caveat: Lawson's alcoholism was a factor here too.)

More interesting though are the situations where a guy seems like he ought to have the talent to play a variety of roles, but he begins with an expectation of being a superstar and doesn't seem to ever accept that he isn't that guy - and thus should focus on applying his gifts in other places. OJ Mayo is a guy like this. It's possible he really couldn't have made it as a role player, but after being hyped as "the next LeBron", he really seemed to approach his entire NBA career focused on proving that he was indeed a superstar talent. After his first team decided he wasn't that guy he "bet on himself" taking a cheap one-year deal on another team when he probably could have gotten more money per year on a long-term deal, and then after that eventually got a 2-year ban after repeated violations of NBA drug policy - which granted, the final one I don't think they said what it was, but he was banned previously for steroid use - and he never made it back in the league.

I'll stop there on that point and you can respond to clarify further if you so choose.

2. I'm confused about the idea of being "unfair to Ray". I'm saying he was more valuable than people then realized. I'm worrying that we're talking past each other.

3. Not sure what to say. To be clear I'm saying the Bucks were incredibly foolish to trade away the best franchise player prospect they arguably ever had in the time between Kareem & Giannis. (There are other candidates here like Marques, Moncrief & Bogut that we could consider, but Allen has a case.)

4. Okay so I'm literally not talking about what Allen could have done at all in my post. I'm talking about people seeing Allen as a lower tier player than he actually was for a variety of reasons - with my 4th point being about people thinking that old Allen was all Allen ever was.

Let me end by pointing to a particular stat here.

TS Add is what basketball-reference calls their stat that estimates how many points a player added with the shots he took relative to what we'd expect if he had league average efficiency - so it factors in both volume & efficiency.

In '00-01, here's the leaderboard, along with with the player's team's ORtg ranking (that is ranking of the most effective offenses in the league) in parentheses:

1. Ray Allen (1st)
2. Dirk Nowitzki (4th)
3. Shaquille O'Neal (2nd)
4. Karl Malone (3rd)
5. Paul Pierce (17th)

I'd say a general rule is that if a player is on the best offense in the league and has the highest TS Add in the league, you should strongly consider whether he was the most valuable offensive player in the league that season. Hence, I don't think the issue here is that Allen was held back, but that people at the time didn't realize how much of an outlier Allen's performance was.


1. Your post gives me insight to the way you're voting and why you vote a particular way[ This same reasoning can be applied to Jimmy B], Personally I consider the burden and weight of expectations when evaluating a player's ability. It's much easier to preform closer to your max capacity when you have nothing to lose when compared to carrying the burden of responsibility on your back; And I think when it comes to assessing players and the amount of load/production they can handle this is a integral aspect of game. Jimmy B is hardly any different in the RS v PS the only difference is he's more facilitatory and passive in he RS and looks to "assert his will" more in the PS.

2. No I understand you! You were saying Ray was more valuable then what was anticipated at the time, but I feel like that's revisionist history at some level(This phenomena applies to Reggie as well), Because of the lack information about 3>2 and other efficiency based metrics; I still like to think I account for those things and I as I will be referring to later they're still resonate with me but at the same time it's a bit unjust to be like "Yeah this guy was more valuable than what was assumed previously, because the team wasn't using him at a higher peak", I think the difference between our understanding at basketball from the mental perspective (how his tms and others on the court described and treated him) and you're taking a more "analytical" approach(as in quantitative data backed by evidence on the value of a player). Really good stuff right there

4. Your point about TS and leading the number one offense was really good, That's nothing something I think about often when analyzing a player. It may do me lots of good when referencing how "valuable" a player is to consider things you're referring to. I watched Ray highlights just before typing up this post, and he reminds me of Iverson without the extreme quickness and shiftyness but 8 inches taller and with a nice 3.

I think it's fair to believe Ray Allen was better than Iverson, Iverson had o do a lot of extra things to basically bully the opposing team mentally into giving him attention(and respecting his ability as a player) thus creating his "value", where as in Ray it feels so natural and benevolent. Really Ray feels like such a prototype( a very refined one) for the way the game would be played in modern day with his 3 level scoring, and spot hunting.


1. Good! I think it's super-useful for us to understand each other well enough that "agree to disagree" isn't just about making peace, but of understanding a larger landscape of possible approaches.

Something I will say about "burden of expectation": I think the player's under the most pressure are typically not the high primacy guys, but the end of rotation guys. When you can get bench with one bad shot and cut at the drop of a hat, you're constantly dealing with your basketball mortality.

I also believe Butler is a great example of someone incredible at handling pressure, but I would point to how he clawed his way up to primacy from low expectations rather than him being willing to jack at volume when that's what he's expected to do.

2. "revisionist history" is an interesting term. The connotation of the term nowadays is one of crafting narrative after the fact to fit with what you want to believe, but that's an indictment of execution rather than concept.

In basketball we have data and it's allowed us to under go rapid innovation in the last couple decades. And so when I, using this newly available data, say that people back then underrated a guy's value, while this can accurately be called revisionist history, it's not reasonable to carry in connotations from fumbling-about social scientists.

People then really did overrate and underrate guys in ways we can see clearly now. We can cut them slack because they don't have the same access we do now, but it doesn't mean they were anything other than wrong, and we should take care not to incorporate their wrongness into our own notion of what is right.

4. Appreciate the kind words, and your open-minded attitude.

Re: Ray & Iverson. The harsh truth about Iverson - speaking as a guy who had AI as his favorite player for a time, and would consider him to be one of the astonishing physical marvels in athletic history - is that he just wasn't good enough of a shooter to live on the diet of shots he did and have it be an optimal approach. It's not that no one like this could possibly exist - there's nothing inherently wrong about what he did - it's just that he needed to make more of those shots and miss less in order to be as valuable as some other guys.

With Ray, the thing is that the epicenter of his game - 3-point shooting - was just plain a lot more valuable than folks recognized at the time.

I think a reasonable person could still plausibly argue that Iverson was more valuable at peak, but what simply has to be recognized is that contemporary observers (which included me) overrated Iverson to some degree and underrated Allen to some degree.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #54 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/19/2023) 

Post#20 » by trex_8063 » Mon Dec 18, 2023 2:37 am

Induction Vote: Ray Allen
I'll try to write up a proper argument later, but he's comfortably my top pick among the available candidates. Doctor MJ already summed up part of what I intended to argue, so I'll start there:

Spoiler:
Doctor MJ wrote:
1. Hmm. I'm not entirely sure what you mean here. It sounds like you're asking whether I believe in "rounding down" my assessment of a player's achievement because he had less pressure on him, and my answer there would be No. I think it's worthwhile to talk about the effect that expectation can have on a player's maturation, but in the end, he achieves what he achieves.

To go on a slight tangent here, something I'm wont to point out is that most NBA players are forced to take on a significantly different and lower primacy role than what they played that got them into the NBA.

Some players have no capacity for doing this and thus you can have a phenomenon where the better college teammate is the worse NBA player. An interesting example of this are the core players on the '08-09 North Carolina college team where Danny Green was the 4th scoring option, and shot less efficiently than each of the 3 guys (Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington) ahead of him in the pecking order, yet in the pros Green had the best career of the bunch by a wide margin. So Green goes from being a college role player to a pro role player, and it all goes swimmingly...while his college teammates fall by the wayside. (Caveat: Lawson's alcoholism was a factor here too.)

More interesting though are the situations where a guy seems like he ought to have the talent to play a variety of roles, but he begins with an expectation of being a superstar and doesn't seem to ever accept that he isn't that guy - and thus should focus on applying his gifts in other places. OJ Mayo is a guy like this. It's possible he really couldn't have made it as a role player, but after being hyped as "the next LeBron", he really seemed to approach his entire NBA career focused on proving that he was indeed a superstar talent. After his first team decided he wasn't that guy he "bet on himself" taking a cheap one-year deal on another team when he probably could have gotten more money per year on a long-term deal, and then after that eventually got a 2-year ban after repeated violations of NBA drug policy - which granted, the final one I don't think they said what it was, but he was banned previously for steroid use - and he never made it back in the league.

I'll stop there on that point and you can respond to clarify further if you so choose.

2. I'm confused about the idea of being "unfair to Ray". I'm saying he was more valuable than people then realized. I'm worrying that we're talking past each other.

3. Not sure what to say. To be clear I'm saying the Bucks were incredibly foolish to trade away the best franchise player prospect they arguably ever had in the time between Kareem & Giannis. (There are other candidates here like Marques, Moncrief & Bogut that we could consider, but Allen has a case.)

4. Okay so I'm literally not talking about what Allen could have done at all in my post. I'm talking about people seeing Allen as a lower tier player than he actually was for a variety of reasons - with my 4th point being about people thinking that old Allen was all Allen ever was.

Let me end by pointing to a particular stat here.

TS Add is what basketball-reference calls their stat that estimates how many points a player added with the shots he took relative to what we'd expect if he had league average efficiency - so it factors in both volume & efficiency.

In '00-01, here's the leaderboard, along with with the player's team's ORtg ranking (that is ranking of the most effective offenses in the league) in parentheses:

1. Ray Allen (1st)
2. Dirk Nowitzki (4th)
3. Shaquille O'Neal (2nd)
4. Karl Malone (3rd)
5. Paul Pierce (17th)

I'd say a general rule is that if a player is on the best offense in the league and has the highest TS Add in the league, you should strongly consider whether he was the most valuable offensive player in the league that season. Hence, I don't think the issue here is that Allen was held back, but that people at the time didn't realize how much of an outlier Allen's performance was.



Alternate vote: Joel Embiid (I guess; considering Gervin, too, though will stay with Gervin and his higher peak for now)



For purposes of any potential run-off, I rank them Allen > (Embiid > Gervin) > Thurmond > Arizin. Could see flip-flopping Gervin and Embiid, though. Will make a decision there if needed.



NOMINATION: Pau Gasol
I think we're way overdue to not at least have him eligible.

I find it hard to believe that a guy who:
*had a mostly-durable 18-year career (ALL 18 years at least fair/useful/playable), peaking as an All-NBA level player;
**was probably at least a borderline or fringe All-Star level player (like at least top 25-30 in the league) for literally 15 seasons;
***was Robin on 2 title teams (3-4 contenders);
****is 32nd all-time in career rs WS (tied for 43rd all-time in playoffs), and 30th since 1973 in rs VORP (38th in playoffs).....

.....is having difficulty even making it on to the list of eligible candidates way out here at #54?!?

McHale's inducted at #48, iirc, though I have a hard time making the case [to myself] for McHale > Pau, given Pau's superior passing, turnover economy, rebounding, and meaningful longevity (all occurring in what is likely a marginally better league, too). Similar individual accolades and team accomplishments to McHale, as well.
Inching closer to astounded that I don't even have the option of voting for this guy yet.


Alternate nomination: Robert Parish
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire

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