Official Trade Thread Part XLV

[payitforward]

I know nothing of Ivey's off-court behavior, but he's improved in his second year, & as you point out he's still only 21.

Plus, it's obviously unfair to quote his career TS% the way you do, since it's at .582 this year. Especially as you go on to push for Cade Cunningham, who was terrible as a rookie, worse his second year, & even worse so far this year! Posting a .506 TS% -- far worse than Jaden Ivey!

OTOH, I grant you he's a better defender by far.

Don't get me wrong: I'm not suggesting we target Jaden Ivey, just that it's a little early to write him off. Hard to see why Cade has more "upside to become... efficient down the road," but Ivey doesn't.

TBH, I don't want either of them.

OTOH, I'd trade anybody but Bilal for Jalen Duren.

[NatP4]

His TS is at 55% this year, and it’s absolutely fair to cite his career TS% in almost 3000 minutes.

I also cited multiple reasons why Cunningham is a more intriguing prospect than Ivey, defense/playmaking. Significantly higher feel for the game+the shooting potential.

Bigger point here: This team needs a core initiating lead guard, Ivey is not that guy.

Topic is that guy. Cunningham could be that guy IMO. The guy that this board was calling a bust a few months ago: Jalen Suggs, is definitely that guy. Don’t get me started on Jalen Brunson.

[penbeast0]

I see that commentators are saying the Griz will be waiving Kenny Lofton Jr. when Ja Morant returns. He's a bit on the short, wide side but shows some scoring ability and was a G League standout last year. I'd like to pick him up to take some of our backup big minutes.

[payitforward]

Lofton... a very unusual player & one of my favorites! I'd love to have him.

[payitforward]

His TS is at 55% this year, and it’s absolutely fair to cite his career TS% in almost 3000 minutes....

But, somehow, it's not fair to cite Cunningham's career TS% in 3400 minutes? Namely, 50.5%

His TS% so far this year, 51.8%, is a good deal worse than Ivey's, but you're happy to call out his "shooting potential," while apparently Ivey, at 55.3%, has none.

I also cited multiple reasons why Cunningham is a more intriguing prospect than Ivey, defense/playmaking. Significantly higher feel for the game+the shooting potential....

No, you cited multiple personal opinions with no support from numbers.

& you're entitled to your personal opinions, btw -- why not? We all have players we like & others we dislike -- it's a fan's privilege.

In this particular case, however, I don't have any personal opinions at all! Not about Ivey & not about Cunningham. I don't particularly "like" either guy. I don't want either of them on the Wizards! I don't want Cade at $11m or Ivey at $7.5m.

To be sure, as you pointed out & I already granted, Cunningham's a far better defender than Ivey.

OTOH, he is an absolutely horrible player on offense. I mean really putrid! & it's not just the 51.8% TS% vs Ivey's 55.3% either. He also manages to turn the ball over 4.2 times every 36 minutes (compared to Ivey at 2.9) while managing only .6 offensive boards (Ivey: 1.1) & 1 steal (Ivey: 1.1).

Once again: it's not that Ivey is a "good" offensive player. He isn't. But, Cunningham is just altogether awful.

...Bigger point here: This team needs a core initiating lead guard....

This team is in the first year of a complete rebuild. We need everything. Literally. Goes without saying that we need young talent at every single position.

[NatP4]

I didn’t say it wasn’t fair to cite Cunningham’s TS. I simply corrected you for throwing out incorrect numbers.

[DCZards]

I think Cunningham has the potential to be a very good NBA player. Right now, they’re asking the 22 year old, who is basically in his second season since he was out injured most of last season, to be the best player and on court leader of a bad Detroit team.

Those awful offensive numbers he’s putting up are in large part a reflection of that responsibility. Personally, I don’t give a lot of weight to the efficiency #s of a young player with an oversized role.

[NatP4]

I think Cunningham has the potential to be a very good NBA player. Right now, they’re asking the 22 year old, who is basically in his second season since he was out injured most of last season, to be the best player and on court leader of a bad Detroit team.

Those awful offensive numbers he’s putting up are in large part a reflection of that responsibility. Personally, I don’t give a lot of weight to the efficiency #s of a young player with an oversized role.

In college, Cunningham shot 40% from 3 on 6.5 attempts per40 (mostly difficult contested off the dribble 3s). His team was flat out terrible around him. 84.6% from the free throw line.

Ivey, in 2 full college seasons (was a year older than Cunningham entering the draft), shot 32% from 3 on the same 6.5 attempts per40. 74% from the free throw line. On a loaded Purdue team with Zach Edey, Trevion Williams, Stefanovic, Gillis, Hunter, tons of spacing. They went 29-8 and finished ranked in the top 10.

It’s pretty obvious as to why a person would be optimistic about Cunningham’s ability to improve his shooting efficiency moreso than Jaden Ivey.

The early career struggles are the reason he *might* be available via trade.

[Silvie Lysandra]

Thoughts on selling high on Kuzma to OKC? They have a lot of assets they won't be able to keep and really need to consolidate, Kuzma has been an above average player this season and is scoring fairly efficiently on high volume (his stat line and efficiency is essentially the same as Siakam atm).

If so, what assets would they be willing to trade, and which ones would be want that we can feasibly get?

I see the argument for keeping him, at least through this year (his contract only gets better asssuming he maintains this play, he's not exactly hurting the tank, he's a leader for the young guys), but this is more of an exploratory question.

[NatP4]

This might be asking too much, but I would ask for Giddey+21(from LAC)+Bertans.

Great time to buy low on Giddey and add another 1st round pick.

[nate33]

Thoughts on selling high on Kuzma to OKC? They have a lot of assets they won't be able to keep and really need to consolidate, Kuzma has been an above average player this season and is scoring fairly efficiently on high volume (his stat line and efficiency is essentially the same as Siakam atm).

If so, what assets would they be willing to trade, and which ones would be want that we can feasibly get?

I see the argument for keeping him, at least through this year (his contract only gets better asssuming he maintains this play, he's not exactly hurting the tank, he's a leader for the young guys), but this is more of an exploratory question.

I like Kuzma on the roster as a guy who can bear a high usage so that everyone else can play a lower usage role that is more suitable for their current skillset. Obviously, at his age, he is unlikely to be a key player when the team finally acquires and develops enough talent to compete, so at some point, the Wizards should trade him for picks/prospects.

The question is, when should that trade be made? And the answer is, whenever his trade value is highest.

The next question is, when will his trade value be highest? And that's where his unique contract comes into play. Kuzma's deal declines in size by almost 10% each season at a time when the the salary cap is jumping 20% each season, so he effectively becomes 30% cheaper each year. It's possible that teams will value him more next year than this year as his contract gets cheaper.

There's no way to know for sure if he will get more valuable going forward, but because the possibility is high, I'd demand a pretty good return if I was to trade him right now. From OKC, I'd want two future 1sts, with one of them being the top 4 protected Houston 2024 pick.

[Silvie Lysandra]

My counter to that: what if the Kuzma we're seeing is an outlier? Right now he has very similar production to Pascal Siakam, which is great, but he's never been this productive at this level of efficiency. How much value does he lose if he returns to his historical values versus how much does he gain as the contract takes up less and less of the cap?

[Silvie Lysandra]

This might be asking too much, but I would ask for Giddey+21(from LAC)+Bertans.

Great time to buy low on Giddey and add another 1st round pick.

I would actually stop watching the team if we traded for Giddey, and he's not even that good anyway (a lot like Michael Carter-Williams, except with worse defense)

[pcbothwel]

The ability for teams to have their 3rd/4th pieces on cheap contracts is key in the new CBA. Part of me wants to wait and watch as guys like Siakam and Tobias Harris get almost 2X what Kuz gets and then gauge the market.

As for OKC, the conversation starts with the 2024 1st. They have their own, Houston, and LAC... The lowest pick goes to the pacers (Probably the OKC pick), and then OKC gets the other 2.
I would ask for the lower of the LAC or Houston pick (Probably in the 22-25 range), but I also want that 2026 LAC 1st and Dieng. They can have any of the expiring vets such as Gallo, Shamet, or Muscala

[nate33]

My counter to that: what if the Kuzma we're seeing is an outlier? Right now he has very similar production to Pascal Siakam, which is great, but he's never been this productive at this level of efficiency. How much value does he lose if he returns to his historical values versus how much does he gain as the contract takes up less and less of the cap?

It's pretty unlikely to be an outlier. Kuzma's production has steadily improved in each of his seasons as a Wizard. He has taken on higher and higher usage with no decline in efficiency. Indeed, his efficiency has improved a bit as well.

[Frichuela]

I'd ask Oklahoma for the highest pick of the HOU/LAC plus Cason Wallace (and whatever fodder). I was very high on Cason pre-draft and still am. Great defensive guard.

[nate33]

I'd ask Oklahoma for the highest pick of the HOU/LAC plus Cason Wallace (and whatever fodder). I was very high on Cason pre-draft and still am. Great defensive guard.

I think Giddey is likely to be more available than Wallace. Wallace seems like the perfect low-usage, high-efficiency, defensive-minded guard to pair with SGA.

[tontoz]

I've watched OKC several times and I have no interest in giddey. Even before his off court issues he was just bad. Not very athletic and can't shoot, not a great combo.

[payitforward]

I didn’t say it wasn’t fair to cite Cunningham’s TS. I simply corrected you for throwing out incorrect numbers.

Fair enough on the incorrect numbers for Ivey's TS% this year -- I forgot to reload a page. He'd been at .58 earlier.

*

Unfortunately, like many disputes of this kind, this one has devolved into complete uselessness. As I stated, I'm not a fan of Jaden Ivey. Not a fan of Cade Cunningham either.

I wish either of them had shown more, quite a bit more, in 3000+ minutes.

Surely you cannot dispute the fact that in the almost 3400 NBA minutes he's played so far, Cunningham has been just awful overall -- I don't see how anyone could think otherwise.

Of course, he may turn out to be terrific, & I hope he does! I have no interest in seeing young people, in any arena of life, fail to achieve their dreams.

Ditto Ivey.

In fact, I hope they both travel the path Jalen Suggs has traveled. He was terrible as a rookie, significantly better his second year, & so far this year he's been outstanding.

[payitforward]

Thoughts on selling high on Kuzma to OKC? They have a lot of assets they won't be able to keep and really need to consolidate, Kuzma has been an above average player this season and is scoring fairly efficiently on high volume (his stat line and efficiency is essentially the same as Siakam atm).

If so, what assets would they be willing to trade, and which ones would be want that we can feasibly get?

I see the argument for keeping him, at least through this year (his contract only gets better asssuming he maintains this play, he's not exactly hurting the tank, he's a leader for the young guys), but this is more of an exploratory question.

I like Kuzma on the roster as a guy who can bear a high usage so that everyone else can play a lower usage role that is more suitable for their current skillset. Obviously, at his age, he is unlikely to be a key player when the team finally acquires and develops enough talent to compete, so at some point, the Wizards should trade him for picks/prospects.

The question is, when should that trade be made? And the answer is, whenever his trade value is highest.

The next question is, when will his trade value be highest? And that's where his unique contract comes into play. Kuzma's deal declines in size by almost 10% each season at a time when the the salary cap is jumping 20% each season, so he effectively becomes 30% cheaper each year. It's possible that teams will value him more next year than this year as his contract gets cheaper.

There's no way to know for sure if he will get more valuable going forward, but because the possibility is high, I'd demand a pretty good return if I was to trade him right now. From OKC, I'd want two future 1sts, with one of them being the top 4 protected Houston 2024 pick.

Makes perfect sense. We should trade Kuzma when we can get the most back for him. In the meantime, how good he really is right now -- as a player -- is almost irrelevant. We aren't going to win many games with him, & we aren't going to lose many more without him.

What definitely is relevant, OTOH, is the kind of a presence he is on the team -- as a leader, as a model for attitude, as a person. &, from what we can tell, he seems to be an extremely positive presence. We need that from him.

Now... if someone offers us two R1 picks for Kuz... ok, that's another matter! To tell the truth, however, I don't think that's very likely.