2023-2024 Regular Season Game 25: Orlando Magic (16-8) at Boston Celtics (19-5) - 3pm

[KillMonger]

These are the kind of games where we need Dell and kelle.... This team wins when paolo and Franz play well and the bench plays well.....on nights where either paolo or Franz isn't hitting it would be nice to have a Dell to help pick up some scoring slack..... Kelle to get some easy buckets at the rim... Goga and AB bolstering the bench helps, we got to find minutes for them..... Can't go back to zero when they come back

Sent from the phone in my hands

[RichCollab]

Does the team call about Donovan Mitchell and dangle a cache of picks?

Mitchell
Suggs
Wagner
Banchero
WCJ

Mitchell wants a big market team. No way he settles. Also, if you win based on team work and effort. Mitchell isn’t going to help a team that gets its success based on that.


I think he would have a similar effect on us as he did the Jazz and Cavs on us.

[Bensational]

I don’t understand why you’re giving Cole a free pass on everything whilst being prepared to be hyper critical of a rookie. Offense might be where our team struggles but defense is where our team succeeds, and Cole is becoming detrimental to what makes us successful if he continues to be such a high USG player.

What is "everything?" He has shot over 47% in all games but two this month, is at 40% from three, has only 1 turnover per game - if "everything" is defense, yes, I am not freaking out about a below average defender playing below average defense. I didn't mind if he was not in the lineup tonight because he clearly was not effective on offense, but the REALITY of it is that he's been very good, almost one of the best offensive players off of the bench in the entire NBA. Not someone who has to average 25 points per game to offset his defense - that is exaggeration.



I don't care about counting stats much - different usage rates and AB is a rookie, but there is something to be said that Cole only averages 5 minutes more and has that much more on court statistical impact.



Basically every advanced stat is in Cole's favor, negligible defensive stats at the moment, because once again, rookies are rookies and are not very efficient - AB will be a way better defender than Cole in his prime, but his negative offensive impact on court is actively hurting us (110 vs 118 Orating). This doesn't mean I think he shouldn't play or start in Fultz absence, it's that he is not this savant that unlocks this team offensively or defensively yet. There are flashes, especially in games where he helps with POA defense with Suggs, like the Cavs game.

Nobody is calling Black a savant. It was simply a fact that tonight he was playing better than Cole and the team was playing better with him in than with Cole in. I don’t mind Black sitting when he’s having a bad night, but the same should go for Cole. It was a bad matchup and he performed poorly.

I think you should check NBA.com’s stats because their advanced stats paint a different picture:

COLE
ortg = 113.5
drtg = 114.1
netrtg = -0.6

BLACK
ortg = 109.8
drtg = 105.0
netrtg = +4.7

Basically, Cole has the worst drtg on the team (followed by Moe), while Black and Goga have some of the best drting numbers of 105 and 106. Franz is 107, Suggs 109.9 and Paolo is 110. The bench have Harris at 108, Ingles at 110, and Isaac at an absurd 99. Since Black and Goga rarely share court time with Cole (and Moe), it becomes obvious which players are dragging down the drtg and which are propping it up. Isaac's defense is basically what keeps that 2nd unit alive, and without him you feel the worst of Cole's 114 drtg effect on the rest of the lineup.

I just don't think people appreciate how much defense is the reason why we're competitive and winning. It's what allows us to stay in games. If we start compromising that in order to put points on the board, it's gonna result in points on the board for the opposition too. We can win by grinding an opposing team down, but we can't win trying to trade baskets with them unless we load up on a lot more firepower or guys catch fire.

So a question I asked earlier Im going to ask you. Cole has been getting 6th man minutes all year. Our defense has been great most of the year. Is Cole a improved defender who had a bad day today or is he bad and the team defense is so great its hides his horric defensive play

By the individual advanced stats and lineup data, I'd say team defense (and Isaac in particular) covers Cole more than anything, but Cole definitely has improved. Also, I'd like to make it clear that I appreciate that Cole is giving it his all on defense - he's not slacking or anything. He's just simply unable to navigate screens and stick with his man and he is so short players can rise up over him too easily.

[zaymon]

We would have a chance if Franz was not atrocious. He is not having fun right now. He needs to gain more strength and finish through contact. Tough defense saps his confidence.
I didnt realize it before but Goga was bad defensively. Jumped at every shot, missed so many rebounds. Last game gave me Bamba vibes on defense. I dont know if it was the case before or not, but last game it was evident.

[dsg2021]

- Cole felt like the worst player tonight if it wasn't Franz. Worth keeping an eye on Cole against exclusively the best teams. But both players have had too many fantastic games this year to overreact any time soon.
- Goga held the ball at the 3 a lot tonight. Wendell would take and make a couple of those. And threaten with his scoring more.
- Markelle, another player we need. Would be almost no defensive drop to Black, and trade someone in who can drive and pass better.
- Paolo had some misses by being 1-2 steps away from his hotter spots, like 1-2 steps beyond the 3 line. Paolo also does this frustrating thing where he sees a post-up against a smaller defender, or sees an open 3, and doesn't take it. He dribbles around and scans the floor for 5 seconds instead, and then does the post-up or open-ish 3 out of rhythm and the defender slightly more ready for it. Rest of it is still just driving and scoring without TO's, playing into contact without TO and grabbing FT's along the way. He was a complete monster player tonight, I nitpick because I can see a superstar, not a star. I love pretending every game that you have never seen any of these players before on either team, maybe only heard about them vaguely, and I swear in the first half you would have had to guess that whoever was this Jayson Tatum superstar was actually maybe #5 Paolo Banchero.

[pepe1991]

To me, personally, on this game, Cole didn't felt any worst than Franz, who was also abused on defensive end.

I think people here simply prefer "defending guards" so Cole isn't their cup of tea. Okey, that's fine. But not every player , especially at PG-SG position will be Tony Allen/Bruce Bowen. Matter of fact if you rank top 10 PGs in nba, hardly any of them is viewed as anything but okey defender.

In game where your rotation didn't crack 90 points in 44 min, you shouldn't really pay too much attention on who looked better on defense, given you couldn't score .


Like, as team, active rotation shot 38% overall

[basketballRob]

I don’t understand why you’re giving Cole a free pass on everything whilst being prepared to be hyper critical of a rookie. Offense might be where our team struggles but defense is where our team succeeds, and Cole is becoming detrimental to what makes us successful if he continues to be such a high USG player.

What is "everything?" He has shot over 47% in all games but two this month, is at 40% from three, has only 1 turnover per game - if "everything" is defense, yes, I am not freaking out about a below average defender playing below average defense. I didn't mind if he was not in the lineup tonight because he clearly was not effective on offense, but the REALITY of it is that he's been very good, almost one of the best offensive players off of the bench in the entire NBA. Not someone who has to average 25 points per game to offset his defense - that is exaggeration.



I don't care about counting stats much - different usage rates and AB is a rookie, but there is something to be said that Cole only averages 5 minutes more and has that much more on court statistical impact.



Basically every advanced stat is in Cole's favor, negligible defensive stats at the moment, because once again, rookies are rookies and are not very efficient - AB will be a way better defender than Cole in his prime, but his negative offensive impact on court is actively hurting us (110 vs 118 Orating). This doesn't mean I think he shouldn't play or start in Fultz absence, it's that he is not this savant that unlocks this team offensively or defensively yet. There are flashes, especially in games where he helps with POA defense with Suggs, like the Cavs game.

Black is actually around a +4 net rating with a defensive rating around 107, and Cole is around -1 with a defensive rating around 114. Cole has been garbage defensively because he's small.

AB will pass Cole soon on the depth chart.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

[drsd]

Boxscore thoughts:

Orlando lost the FG% battle and lost the game.

The Magic was smoked on the glass and went -12 in rebounds.
But, the Magic was glimmering excellent in TO differential with only 8 on the blue end of the court.
And FT differential. In the end the Magic had 11 more made FTs.

[drsd]

I would expect the Celts coaches and players to be losing their mind about "unfair" ref'ing. If so, Look: you won the game. Shut up about FT disparity.

In the end, the Magic had one excellent starter, one OK starter, and three starters that did not show up. THe Magic win this game only if the bench shins. And they also sucked; actually so did Bostin's bench.

For me this loss is on F-Wagner, Anthony, and G-Harris: basically in equal thirds. But we must accept that Black cannot continue to start. He is simply not good enough.

[Skybox]

Boxscore thoughts:

Orlando lost the FG% battle and lost the game.

The Magic was smoked on the glass and went -12 in rebounds.
But, the Magic was glimmering excellent in TO differential with only 8 on the blue end of the court.
And FT differential. In the end the Magic had 11 more made FTs.

If we’re combing the box scores for conclusions, it’s certainly reasonable to come up with…

3pts made are > fts made

3>1

[drsd]

Boxscore thoughts:

Orlando lost the FG% battle and lost the game.

The Magic was smoked on the glass and went -12 in rebounds.
But, the Magic was glimmering excellent in TO differential with only 8 on the blue end of the court.
And FT differential. In the end the Magic had 11 more made FTs.

If we’re combing the box scores for conclusions, it’s certainly reasonable to come up with…

3pts made are > fts made

3>1

And-1

It is actually quite an achievement that the Magic kept the game close so long, given the shooting disparities. The "Moral" vitory here i) that Orlando never gave up until very late (specifically at the 2:27 mark) and b) that a lot of "intangibles" were positive.

In the end, the Magic has 16 wins because of dominant bench scoring, FT disparities and strong rebounding. Orlando did have 2 of those 3 things in this game.

Revisionist history: let's say that Anthony and G-Harris each had 4 points more than points scored (by hitting missed shots), this game would have been a 50/50 game then.

In conclusion: I feel OK about this loss. The better team, at home, won the game. Did anyone in the world expect a different result?
Orlando's character shone in this game.

[drsd]

3pts made are > fts made

3>1

Well: And-1's are better plays than made 3-balls. But for that, the initiating FG needed to go inside a metal ring.

[ORLMagicGirl15]

Hey, Paolo had some of his best scoring against great defensive teams. That is a positive.

[Furinkazan]

[Bergmaniac]

This is what we are going to see a lot in the playoffs if we don't get more shooting. When teams are disciplined and focused on forcing us to make outside shots, we usually struggle. Especially when Harris is in a slump. When Franz started bricking threes despite the Celtics basically daring him to shoot by going under on the pick and rolls I knew we will probably lose by a lot. Ingles being out didn't help either, the second unit offense is so much more organised and plain better when he is running the pick and roll. And when Cole is bad offensively, we lose almost every time.

Black should have played more, Mosley is too rigid with his rotations in regards to him. Harris and Cole were terrible, Caleb didn't do much either.

[eyriq]

This is what we are going to see a lot in the playoffs if we don't get more shooting. When teams are disciplined and focused on forcing us to make outside shots, we usually struggle. Especially when Harris is in a slump. When Franz started bricking threes despite the Celtics basically daring him to shoot by going under on the pick and rolls I knew we will probably lose by a lot. Ingles being out didn't help either, the second unit offense is so much more organised and plain better when he is running the pick and roll. And when Cole is bad offensively, we lose almost every time.

Black should have played more, Mosley is too rigid with his rotations in regards to him. Harris and Cole were terrible, Caleb didn't do much either.

The rigid Black usage is frustrating beyond belief.

Someone needs to ask coach about it. His answer would be "I spent all my political capital just to get Black into the starting lineup over Cole. I sold Cole on this by highlighting that Cole is our #1 PG and our bench MVP and we can't afford to hurt that bench chemistry, and that for all other stints Cole would be considered our top PG option. I can't push Cole further on this, he'll have a huge tantrum. My hands are tied."

[pepe1991]

Cole's performances are our swing between loses and wins. We can keep defense at ok level, but on some nights we simply don't provide enough offense to win games.

Games like this is execlly how our playoff games will look like. We can't fix issue of lack of shooting by just playing harder defense.

[eyriq]

Cole's performances are our swing between loses and wins. We can keep defense at ok level, but on some nights we simply don't provide enough offense to win games.

Games like this is execlly how our playoff games will look like. We can't fix issue of lack of shooting by just playing harder defense.

This is so fascinating. The same trend in terms of splits was visible last season as well. Seems to be clear evidence that he's a critical contributor to wins and his performance is the most highly correlated with team performance.

Why?

[jezzerinho]

I thought the Magic looked incredible early on in attack. They were so patient and composed, they just waited for the opening and took their chances.

As the game wore on, Orl got sped up further and further, they got desperate, players like Cole and Franz tried to taken responsibility on themselves to arrest the slide, but itnjust wasn't falling for them against a top, very disciplined defence like Boston's.

Had they continued to stay patient and probe, I think they could have snuck it.

[pepe1991]

Cole's performances are our swing between loses and wins. We can keep defense at ok level, but on some nights we simply don't provide enough offense to win games.

Games like this is execlly how our playoff games will look like. We can't fix issue of lack of shooting by just playing harder defense.

This is so fascinating. The same trend in terms of splits was visible last season as well. Seems to be clear evidence that he's a critical contributor to wins and his performance is the most highly correlated with team performance.

Why?

I assume because any nba team needs potent scoring from guards to open floor for other position, and when Cole is 15 -5-5 on 60% TS player ( wins) he provides that and opens floor for everybody and makes us less predictable.
When he is off, we don't have many guard options left to create havoc for defense of other teams.