Trade Talk (Part 14): 2023-24 Edition

[Colbinii]

3. We are hoping for a finals run and winning a chip. Are you comfortable with Kyle or JMAC as your playoff PG if Mike gets hurt? That is what we are really talking about. If Mike goes down what is our backup plan. Does Jordan or Kyle beat the Nuggets in the WCF, or the Celtics in the finals? We both know Playoff basketball is very different from regular season.

Eh, it's a bit more nuanced than that.

ANT/NAW slide to the 1 and you run ANT/NAW/McDaniels/KAT/Gobert.

You let ANT/KAT increase their usage offensively.

4. @Klomp. Kyle is a great player in certain situations. But so was V8 and JO. In the playoffs it is really hard to play one way players. If Kyle turns into bargain Ben Simmons (the path he is on now,) is that better than a Tyus Jones?

Yeah, because Tyus is a huge negative defensively in the playoffs.

I think you also need to realize that no team is bullet proof from an injury. If a key player gets injured, then the odds of winning drop drastically.

The Nuggets were healthy in 2023 and won. They wouldn't have won if they weren't healthy.

The 2022 Warriors beat a Nuggets team without Jamal Murray. The Nuggets win the next year when healthy.

The 2021 Bucks won because they played against injured teams like the Nets and the Clippers got unlucky with Kawhi getting injured.

Finch talks about the importance of an actual PG late game. We lost against the Griz because of hero ball. Ant is not and will never be a true PG. NAW is a solid wing defender but clearly not great at running the offense. Tyus might not be an A+ defender, but he is more than good enough to be the backup PG on a playoff team. More importantly he can spell Mike for a number of games this year so we have Mike fresh and healthy for the playoffs. Going forward he is a nice no mistakes facilitator who can play with Ant, KAT, Jaden, and Rudy. Lastly, how much better is Mike than Tyus at defense?

I think in the Regular Season, you just let players like McDaniels/Towns/NAW/ANT get more reps running sets if you want to rest Mike, while giving McLaughlin some run and you can also just run through SlowMo/Reid more.

Mike is better than Tyus. Quicker and Better Anticipation/Rotations are the biggest differences. But, you are right that our defense can hide Tyus.

[Klomp]

Finch talks about the importance of an actual PG late game. We lost against the Griz because of hero ball. Ant is not and will never be a true PG. NAW is a solid wing defender but clearly not great at running the offense. Tyus might not be an A+ defender, but he is more than good enough to be the backup PG on a playoff team. More importantly he can spell Mike for a number of games this year so we have Mike fresh and healthy for the playoffs. Going forward he is a nice no mistakes facilitator who can play with Ant, KAT, Jaden, and Rudy. Lastly, how much better is Mike than Tyus at defense?

The Memphis series was two years ago. Ant has made significant strides in late-game situational offense. NAW is better than you give him credit for. Kyle is better than you give him credit for.

[Klomp]

At this point, when I look at the players we can trade Shake Milton for, and the limited assets we can add in, I rarely see a guy that I think is a better than simply doing nothing, retain chemistry, and hope Milton can return even to his historic averages. Boring.

This is pretty much where I'm at in terms of trades. Milton hasn't given the team much yet, but when you look at guys that we could get for him I just haven't seen anything that makes me think the team would be better after a trade. I believe any Anderson deal would be similar. If I had to guess on what the Wolves do before the trade deadline, it would be a very small trade of Moore (and maybe a 2nd or two) for a fringe rotation guard like Hyland or Dunn.

Right. I’ve been so desperate to find a back up PG that I think I was losing sight of the reality of the situation. For example, take Jordan MacLaughlin. On our team right now, we don’t play him at all. If he was on another team, I’d make him a top (cheap) trade target, since he can run an offense and already knows how to play with the team.

The reality is, we are so locked up financially and asset-wise, any more we make needs to be something that makes a difference, and doesn’t disrupt our chemistry. Right now, Finch plays Kyle Anderson and NAW as “back up point guards,” with additional playmaking from Ant and KAT. And yes, none of them are true PG’s like Conley, but we don’t struggle from a lack of offensive cohesion when these guys are on the floor.

Do I know somebody like Delon Wright is going to be better than Shake for the rest of the season? Do I even know he’d be better than MacLaughlin? I don’t want us to chase a questionable deal because of fear. No team has everything - the CBA prevents a team from affording that. But the Wolves have lots of strengths, and those strengths - even without a high caliber back up PG, have done pretty well this season.

That's why with any deal I'm looking not only at what can they give us this year, but can they give us something next year. We need to be looking ahead at next year, and not just have no replacement plan for Kyle and Mike because we were too focused on this playoff run.

[TimberKat]

This is pretty much where I'm at in terms of trades. Milton hasn't given the team much yet, but when you look at guys that we could get for him I just haven't seen anything that makes me think the team would be better after a trade. I believe any Anderson deal would be similar. If I had to guess on what the Wolves do before the trade deadline, it would be a very small trade of Moore (and maybe a 2nd or two) for a fringe rotation guard like Hyland or Dunn.

Right. I’ve been so desperate to find a back up PG that I think I was losing sight of the reality of the situation. For example, take Jordan MacLaughlin. On our team right now, we don’t play him at all. If he was on another team, I’d make him a top (cheap) trade target, since he can run an offense and already knows how to play with the team.

The reality is, we are so locked up financially and asset-wise, any more we make needs to be something that makes a difference, and doesn’t disrupt our chemistry. Right now, Finch plays Kyle Anderson and NAW as “back up point guards,” with additional playmaking from Ant and KAT. And yes, none of them are true PG’s like Conley, but we don’t struggle from a lack of offensive cohesion when these guys are on the floor.

Do I know somebody like Delon Wright is going to be better than Shake for the rest of the season? Do I even know he’d be better than MacLaughlin? I don’t want us to chase a questionable deal because of fear. No team has everything - the CBA prevents a team from affording that. But the Wolves have lots of strengths, and those strengths - even without a high caliber back up PG, have done pretty well this season.

That's why with any deal I'm looking not only at what can they give us this year, but can they give us something next year. We need to be looking ahead at next year, and not just have no replacement plan for Kyle and Mike because we were too focused on this playoff run.

I think we should just focus on looking at this year. How far we go will impact how much owner will be willing to go over 2nd apron for a year or two. In addition, Ant gets All NBA or not is worth 5Mil of cap space. How well NAW develops and how much can TBJ plays will impact what we want to do. I am assuming by now Connelly already know what Conley is looking for to re-sign here but he is going to say the same - let's see how this year play out. By trading deadline, we will have a much better idea what we need. I am already giving up on Milton to be a factor this year.

[winforlose]

Right. I’ve been so desperate to find a back up PG that I think I was losing sight of the reality of the situation. For example, take Jordan MacLaughlin. On our team right now, we don’t play him at all. If he was on another team, I’d make him a top (cheap) trade target, since he can run an offense and already knows how to play with the team.

The reality is, we are so locked up financially and asset-wise, any more we make needs to be something that makes a difference, and doesn’t disrupt our chemistry. Right now, Finch plays Kyle Anderson and NAW as “back up point guards,” with additional playmaking from Ant and KAT. And yes, none of them are true PG’s like Conley, but we don’t struggle from a lack of offensive cohesion when these guys are on the floor.

Do I know somebody like Delon Wright is going to be better than Shake for the rest of the season? Do I even know he’d be better than MacLaughlin? I don’t want us to chase a questionable deal because of fear. No team has everything - the CBA prevents a team from affording that. But the Wolves have lots of strengths, and those strengths - even without a high caliber back up PG, have done pretty well this season.

That's why with any deal I'm looking not only at what can they give us this year, but can they give us something next year. We need to be looking ahead at next year, and not just have no replacement plan for Kyle and Mike because we were too focused on this playoff run.

I think we should just focus on looking at this year. How far we go will impact how much owner will be willing to go over 2nd apron for a year or two. In addition, Ant gets All NBA or not is worth 5Mil of cap space. How well NAW develops and how much can TBJ plays will impact what we want to do. I am assuming by now Connelly already know what Conley is looking for to re-sign here but he is going to say the same - let's see how this year play out. By trading deadline, we will have a much better idea what we need. I am already giving up on Milton to be a factor this year.

I wish it was that simple. With Mike and Kyle expiring and so much money tied up in starting 4 plus Naz, we cannot afford to focus only on this year. Also, we have a 36 year old starting PG, if he goes down we are hosed. I think we need do something, the what is up for debate.

[shrink]

I agree that when you have a chance for a ring, that should be your primary aim. Those windows slam shut fast.

But we are in the same CBA trap with Mike Conley that we were with DLo last year. MIN needs Bird rights to pay our starting PG next season, the tax-payer MLE (and I’m not sure we even have that) is not enough money to bring in a new starting PG from free agency. That means either being very sure that we can retain Mike at a reasonable number, not having a starting PG at all and using Ant and NAW, or bringing in a potential starting PG before the trade deadline. All three look like difficult roads.

[winforlose]

I agree that when you have a chance for a ring, that should be your primary aim.

But we are in the same CBA trap with Mike Conley that we were with DLo last year. MIN needs Bird rights to pay our starting PG next season, the tax-payer MLE (and I’m not sure we even have that) is not enough money to bring in a new starting PG from free agency. That means either being very sure that we can retain Mike at a reasonable number, not having a starting PG at all and using Ant and NAW, or bringing in a potential starting PG before the trade deadline. All three look like difficult roads.

This begs the question, is Tyus Jones the starting PG of 24-25 or 25-26?

[frankenwolf]

Question for capologists out there: Hypothetically, can we sign MC to a 3 year deal @ $45M total and then defer $30M, similar to the Ohteni or the Mets/Bobby Bonilla deal, so that his actual number is $5M/year?

Thanks, I'll hang up and listen

[Klomp]

Question for capologists out there: Hypothetically, can we sign MC to a 3 year deal @ $45M total and then defer $30M, similar to the Ohteni or the Mets/Bobby Bonilla deal, so that his actual number is $5M/year?

Thanks, I'll hang up and listen

Nice try...

EDIT: Actually, hold on...we may have the Over 38 Rule come into play.

[BlacJacMac]

Question for capologists out there: Hypothetically, can we sign MC to a 3 year deal @ $45M total and then defer $30M, similar to the Ohteni or the Mets/Bobby Bonilla deal, so that his actual number is $5M/year?

Thanks, I'll hang up and listen

Nope. Because basketball has a salary cap.

Ohtani's contract is deferred as to when he gets his money, but really what it does for the team is lessens how much he counts towards the luxury tax each year. So while he collects only 2M/year, he still counts as 70M in payroll numbers. But only about 65% of his salary counts towards the luxury tax. So since the Dodgers have basically unlimited money and no salary cap to restrict them, they can sign more players and still stay under the tax threshold.

Ohtani's cost toward the Dodgers' competitive balance tax payroll -- which typically uses the average annual value of contracts, in this case $70 million, but discounts deferred money -- will be about $46 million after each season.

And just to cover everything, the deferred compensation rule is already baked into the MLB CBA:

Read on Twitter

[winforlose]

Question for capologists out there: Hypothetically, can we sign MC to a 3 year deal @ $45M total and then defer $30M, similar to the Ohteni or the Mets/Bobby Bonilla deal, so that his actual number is $5M/year?

Thanks, I'll hang up and listen

Nice try...

EDIT: Actually, hold on...we may have the Over 38 Rule come into play.

Posting my source below. According to the source because Mike’s birthday is after October 1, (October 11 is his actual birthday,) a 2 year extension does not trigger the rule. A 3 year extension would.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2018/06/hoops-rumors-glossary-over-38-rule.html

[wolves_89]

I agree that when you have a chance for a ring, that should be your primary aim. Those windows slam shut fast.

But we are in the same CBA trap with Mike Conley that we were with DLo last year. MIN needs Bird rights to pay our starting PG next season, the tax-payer MLE (and I’m not sure we even have that) is not enough money to bring in a new starting PG from free agency. That means either being very sure that we can retain Mike at a reasonable number, not having a starting PG at all and using Ant and NAW, or bringing in a potential starting PG before the trade deadline. All three look like difficult roads.

One thing I'll be watching for before the trade deadline is a Conley extension. He's played well enough that it seems worth the risk for the team and I'm hoping he's happy with the situation and willing to extend at a reasonable rate.

[MN7725]

I wonder if Jevon Carter would be available if Bulls start changing the team

they just signed him during offseason to 2+1 deal so doesn't seem likely they would move him but he's only playing 14 mpg and they have other guard options

as crazy as it sounds, Carter would become the Wolves best perimeter defender, all due respect to NAW, Jaden. JC is absolute pitbull

[Klomp]

I wonder if Jevon Carter would be available if Bulls start changing the team

they just signed him during offseason to 2+1 deal so doesn't seem likely they would move him but he's only playing 14 mpg and they have other guard options

as crazy as it sounds, Carter would become the Wolves best perimeter defender, all due respect to NAW, Jaden. JC is absolute pitbull

He's very high on my list of what I'll call realistic targets

[BlacJacMac]

I wonder if Jevon Carter would be available if Bulls start changing the team

they just signed him during offseason to 2+1 deal so doesn't seem likely they would move him but he's only playing 14 mpg and they have other guard options

as crazy as it sounds, Carter would become the Wolves best perimeter defender, all due respect to NAW, Jaden. JC is absolute pitbull

He's very high on my list of what I'll call realistic targets

He's basically a younger PatBev without the crazy.

[shrink]

Question for capologists out there: Hypothetically, can we sign MC to a 3 year deal @ $45M total and then defer $30M, similar to the Ohteni or the Mets/Bobby Bonilla deal, so that his actual number is $5M/year?

Thanks, I'll hang up and listen

Bobby Bonilla! Good shout out! Good player, but he’s becoming more famous for his contract!

The NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement doesn’t have traditional deferred compensation, but it does leave several loopholes.

1. Likely and Unlikely Incentives. Players who reach specific performance goals can get a bonus at the end of the year for reaching it, of up to 15% of the contract. Bad news is, if they reach it, it counts toward your teams total payroll, and can push you over the cap or lux. Mike Conley is the only player on the team who has one, an extra $1.5 mil if he plays in 60% of our playoff games, and the team makes the finals, and it’s probably one reason why we haven’t filled our 15th roster spot.

2. Guaranteed, Partially Guaranteed, Unguaranteed, and Team Options. I’m lumping all this together but it’s another common way teams manipulate the cap. It’s especially useful for older players, like the deal Chris Paul signed, 1st year guaranteed, 2nd year half guaranteed, 3rd year unguaranteed. However, even if a team cuts a player, the dead money still counts against the cap.

3. Cutting or Waiving a Player and Buy Outs. For players that are unguaranteed contracts, a player can be waived and the cap hit is just for the days was on the team. Some players are so anxious to get off a team that they will agree to give up part of their guaranteed money, they will occasionally give back money that they can make up on their next deal on a team that signs them as a free agent.

3a. Stretch Provision. If a player is cut or waived, teams can use the stretch provision, to disperse their cap hold over future years. It’s (years left x2 +1), so a contract with 1 year can be split into three cap hits, a 2-year deal can be divided across 5 years. That of course leaves dead money on your books, just like anytime a team cuts a player with a guaranteed contract, but sometimes it is so critical to get back some cap space immediately that this can be a useful alternative.

For example, consider stretching Shake Milton. Yes, it would mean we’d save 2/3 of his cap hit this year ($3.4 mil!), but we’d have to replace him on the roster with another salary, plus have two years at $1.7 each when we were well in the lux where we’d really pay luxury taxes for zero production. But if an expiring player had a season ending injury, that’s an option.

To sum up, there’s no precise “deferred” option for the NBA, but there are ways to cut salary cap hits. For the Wolves, none of them are particularly appealing right now, but if we get desperate …?

[Klomp]

Question for capologists out there: Hypothetically, can we sign MC to a 3 year deal @ $45M total and then defer $30M, similar to the Ohteni or the Mets/Bobby Bonilla deal, so that his actual number is $5M/year?

Thanks, I'll hang up and listen

Bobby Bonilla! Good shout out! Good player, but he’s becoming more famous for his contract!

The NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement doesn’t have traditional deferred compensation, but it does leave several loopholes.

1. Likely and Unlikely Incentives. Players who reach specific performance goals can get a bonus at the end of the year for reaching it, of up to 15% of the contract. Bad news is, if they reach it, it counts toward your teams total payroll, and can push you over the cap or lux. Mike Conley is the only player on the team who has one, an extra $1.5 mil if he plays in 60% of our playoff games, and the team makes the finals, and it’s probably one reason why we haven’t filled our 15th roster spot.

2. Guaranteed, Partially Guaranteed, Unguaranteed, and Team Options. I’m lumping all this together but it’s another common way teams manipulate the cap. It’s especially useful for older players, like the deal Chris Paul signed, 1st year guaranteed, 2nd year half guaranteed, 3rd year unguaranteed. However, even if a team cuts a player, the dead money still counts against the cap.

3. Cutting or Waiving a Player and Buy Outs. For players that are unguaranteed contracts, a player can be waived and the cap hit is just for the days was on the team. Some players are so anxious to get off a team that they will agree to give up part of their guaranteed money, they will occasionally give back money that they can make up on their next deal on a team that signs them as a free agent.

3a. Stretch Provision. If a player is cut or waived, teams can use the stretch provision, to disperse their cap hold over future years. It’s (years left x2 +1), so a contract with 1 year can be split into three cap hits, a 2-year deal can be divided across 5 years. That of course leaves dead money on your books, just like anytime a team cuts a player with a guaranteed contract, but sometimes it is so critical to get back some cap space immediately that this can be a useful alternative.

For example, consider stretching Shake Milton. Yes, it would mean we’d save 2/3 of his cap hit this year ($3.4 mil!), but we’d have to replace him on the roster with another salary, plus have two years at $1.7 each when we were well in the lux where we’d really pay luxury taxes for zero production. But if an expiring player had a season ending injury, that’s an option.

To sum up, there’s no precise “deferred” option for the NBA, but there are ways to cut salary cap hits. For the Wolves, none of them are particularly appealing right now, but if we get desperate …?

Could the Over 38 Rule be of our benefit, you think?

[winforlose]

Question for capologists out there: Hypothetically, can we sign MC to a 3 year deal @ $45M total and then defer $30M, similar to the Ohteni or the Mets/Bobby Bonilla deal, so that his actual number is $5M/year?

Thanks, I'll hang up and listen

Bobby Bonilla! Good shout out! Good player, but he’s becoming more famous for his contract!

The NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement doesn’t have traditional deferred compensation, but it does leave several loopholes.

1. Likely and Unlikely Incentives. Players who reach specific performance goals can get a bonus at the end of the year for reaching it, of up to 15% of the contract. Bad news is, if they reach it, it counts toward your teams total payroll, and can push you over the cap or lux. Mike Conley is the only player on the team who has one, an extra $1.5 mil if he plays in 60% of our playoff games, and the team makes the finals, and it’s probably one reason why we haven’t filled our 15th roster spot.

2. Guaranteed, Partially Guaranteed, Unguaranteed, and Team Options. I’m lumping all this together but it’s another common way teams manipulate the cap. It’s especially useful for older players, like the deal Chris Paul signed, 1st year guaranteed, 2nd year half guaranteed, 3rd year unguaranteed. However, even if a team cuts a player, the dead money still counts against the cap.

3. Cutting or Waiving a Player and Buy Outs. For players that are unguaranteed contracts, a player can be waived and the cap hit is just for the days was on the team. Some players are so anxious to get off a team that they will agree to give up part of their guaranteed money, they will occasionally give back money that they can make up on their next deal on a team that signs them as a free agent.

3a. Stretch Provision. If a player is cut or waived, teams can use the stretch provision, to disperse their cap hold over future years. It’s (years left x2 +1), so a contract with 1 year can be split into three cap hits, a 2-year deal can be divided across 5 years. That of course leaves dead money on your books, just like anytime a team cuts a player with a guaranteed contract, but sometimes it is so critical to get back some cap space immediately that this can be a useful alternative.

For example, consider stretching Shake Milton. Yes, it would mean we’d save 2/3 of his cap hit this year ($3.4 mil!), but we’d have to replace him on the roster with another salary, plus have two years at $1.7 each when we were well in the lux where we’d really pay luxury taxes for zero production. But if an expiring player had a season ending injury, that’s an option.

To sum up, there’s no precise “deferred” option for the NBA, but there are ways to cut salary cap hits. For the Wolves, none of them are particularly appealing right now, but if we get desperate …?

Could the Over 38 Rule be of our benefit, you think?

No. If we sign him to 3 years at 7 million a year, then we pay him 10.5, 10.5 and 0. That is bad in every year we need him, and he is probably retired by the third year.

[TimberKat]

I think we could sign Conley to 2 years at 8m each and we will still be under 2nd Apron. I don't think Jones is better and we just need some reliable backup. After two years, Gobert's contract will drop off and we have more flexibility.

[winforlose]

I think we could sign Conley to 2 years at 8m each and we will still be under 2nd Apron. I don't think Jones is better and we just need some reliable backup. After two years, Gobert's contract will drop off and we have more flexibility.

This number is from spotrac is for 11 players and includes Shake, Troy, and Josh who are all unguaranteed. $185,361,322

That is before our draft picks are signed and without Kyle or Mike. The tax line is 172 million and the 2nd apron is 190 million.