NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (continued)

[The-Power]

This whole argument started because someone said FG% shouldn’t be taken into consideration.

It shouldn't be used to measure efficiency because TS% does a much better job at it. Period. What you do with the efficiency information is up to you. Nobody here wrote that it's the be-all and end-all when it comes to determining who is the better or more dominant scorer. You made that up yourself. Those are entirely different concepts. There are many other factors that influence scoring goodness and dominance (although FG% really isn't anywhere near the top of that list).

And with that, I'm also happy to end the conversation from my side. It's beyond the topic of the thread, and at this point there's really nothing more that I can write that I haven't already.

[The-Power]

Hmm, Luka is starting to look really good.

Individual production has never been Luka's problem in MVP debates. It's the impact and lift that comes with these numbers, especially during the RS, that may be questioned compared to other MVP candidates.

Kyrie being mostly out, Luka's starters are Exum/DJJ/Grant/Lively or Powell. I doubt anyone would be starting in any other contender. If anything, Luka is doing miracles.

I'm not saying that this team is anything to write home about. But Luka's historical plus-minus pattern is something worth noting because it doesn't look anything like the patterns we are used to with other historically great players. And while there are relevant context factors to be taken into account that can explain some of it, I don't believe that at this point we can just waive it away as noise.

[Bob8]

Individual production has never been Luka's problem in MVP debates. It's the impact and lift that comes with these numbers, especially during the RS, that may be questioned compared to other MVP candidates.

Kyrie being mostly out, Luka's starters are Exum/DJJ/Grant/Lively or Powell. I doubt anyone would be starting in any other contender. If anything, Luka is doing miracles.

I'm not saying that this team is anything to write home about. But Luka's historical plus-minus pattern is something worth noting because it doesn't look anything like the patterns we are used to with other historically great players. And while there are relevant context factors to be taken into account that can explain some of it, I don't believe that at this point we can just waive it away as noise.

I believe it's really easy explanation, Mavs starters outside Luka is far worse than in other contenders, it's more or less impossible to have good +/- numbers against other far superior starters. Those players should really be on the bench and because of that players coming from bench are really not much worse, but they're playing against second units. Mavs are really Luka, Kyrie when available, and a lot of bench players. Just look at last night, Jokic didn't even need to try for being + 16. The real question is, do you really believe that Jokic/Embiid/Giannis/Shai/Tatum could have better results playing with Exum/ DJJ/ Grant/ Lively? I doubt that very much. Last year Exum was in Europe, DJJ buried far in the bench, Grant with 17 minutes in playoffs, and Lively is 19 years old rookie.

[LordCovington33]

If this year is Doncic’s year, good for him and the Mavs. I loved watching them play in the day with Dirk, so I have a soft spot.
The race at the end will be interesting. It’s pretty close at the moment, with SGA also making a strong case.

[Mavrelous]

If this year is Doncic’s year, good for him and the Mavs. I loved watching them play in the day with Dirk, so I have a soft spot.
The race at the end will be interesting. It’s pretty close at the moment, with SGA also making a strong case.

It'll come down to team record, and I don't DAL being top 5 team in the west, they'll be lucky if they get #6.

[Bob8]

If this year is Doncic’s year, good for him and the Mavs. I loved watching them play in the day with Dirk, so I have a soft spot.
The race at the end will be interesting. It’s pretty close at the moment, with SGA also making a strong case.

Luka and Mavs has 0 chances. You can't be totally dependant on rookie C and hoping that Kyrie plays games, while having few nonstarters in starting unit. They need a big upgrade on 4 and at least decent backup C, to even come in conversation.

[RB34]

Hmm, Luka is starting to look really good.

Individual production has never been Luka's problem in MVP debates. It's the impact and lift that comes with these numbers, especially during the RS, that may be questioned compared to other MVP candidates.

Which other candidates? If Luka is going to be looked at with this lens then so should others. There are a few gaudy stat lines floating around there that have zero impact on team play.

[dygaction]

Kyrie being mostly out, Luka's starters are Exum/DJJ/Grant/Lively or Powell. I doubt anyone would be starting in any other contender. If anything, Luka is doing miracles.

I'm not saying that this team is anything to write home about. But Luka's historical plus-minus pattern is something worth noting because it doesn't look anything like the patterns we are used to with other historically great players. And while there are relevant context factors to be taken into account that can explain some of it, I don't believe that at this point we can just waive it away as noise.

I believe it's really easy explanation, Mavs starters outside Luka is far worse than in other contenders, it's more or less impossible to have good +/- numbers against other far superior starters. Those players should really be on the bench and because of that players coming from bench are really not much worse, but they're playing against second units. Mavs are really Luka, Kyrie when available, and a lot of bench players. Just look at last night, Jokic didn't even need to try for being + 16. The real question is, do you really believe that Jokic/Embiid/Giannis/Shai/Tatum could have better results playing with Exum/ DJJ/ Grant/ Lively? I doubt that very much. Last year Exum was in Europe, DJJ buried far in the bench, Grant with 17 minutes in playoffs, and Lively is 19 years old rookie.

It is a bit technical, but here is an explanation called "Generalized Tian Ji’s Horse Racing Strategy"
https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1402/1402.5351.pdf

Luka has teamed up with lots starters who should not have been starters at that point, including DFS (not now but as 2nd round on rookie contract)/Powell (after injury several years ago)/Bullock...

On the bench, they could keep Jalen Brunson, Tim Hardaway Jr, Maxi Kleber..., Mavs' bench have been always quality bench but the problem is they usually have two starters of the bench caliber. The pattern has been Luka keeps the team float, and the bench can give any team a run.

[brettski]

Just for discussion's sake, because a lot has been said about the scoring prowess of Embiid, here are Giannis' and Embiid's numbers against teams with a winning record so far this season.

Embiid: 30.2/10.9/6.7 on 48fg%
Giannis: 35.3/11.4/4.5 on 61fg%

People should be banned from using FG% in 2023. Use TS% instead, and including turnovers wouldn't hurt either.

I disagree but to each his own.
Against teams with a winning record these are their statlines:

Embiid: 30.2/10.9/6.7 on 60.5 TS% with 1.8 blocks and 1 steal with 4.1 turnovers
Giannis: 35.3/11.4/4.5 on 65 TS% with 1 block and 1.6 steals with 4.4 turnovers

Do you have a sample size for each as well? We're about 30 games into the regular season but the draw could have an impact as well. I think the Bucks have had an easier draw so maybe haven't played too many teams with winning records while Embiid has missed a few games against good teams from memory.

[AussieBuck]

People should be banned from using FG% in 2023. Use TS% instead, and including turnovers wouldn't hurt either.

I disagree but to each his own.
Against teams with a winning record these are their statlines:

Embiid: 30.2/10.9/6.7 on 60.5 TS% with 1.8 blocks and 1 steal with 4.1 turnovers
Giannis: 35.3/11.4/4.5 on 65 TS% with 1 block and 1.6 steals with 4.4 turnovers

Do you have a sample size for each as well? We're about 30 games into the regular season but the draw could have an impact as well. I think the Bucks have had an easier draw so maybe haven't played too many teams with winning records while Embiid has missed a few games against good teams from memory.

Indiana have a winning record and he's at about 50 a game against them in 3 games. Guessing the numbers are closer to normal accounting for that.

[Hobo4President]

Yeh as of now for me its:
1. Embiid
2. SGA
3. Jokic

These are the clear top 3 to me

Feel like Luka has to be there. He has been impressive.

Yeah Luka is defs top 5 for me. If I had to say I'd probably lean Giannis at 4 and Luka at 5.

[One Last Shot]

If this year is Doncic’s year, good for him and the Mavs. I loved watching them play in the day with Dirk, so I have a soft spot.
The race at the end will be interesting. It’s pretty close at the moment, with SGA also making a strong case.

Luka and Mavs has 0 chances. You can't be totally dependant on rookie C and hoping that Kyrie plays games, while having few nonstarters in starting unit. They need a big upgrade on 4 and at least decent backup C, to even come in conversation.

Maybe he meant Luka winning the MVP, not the NBA title for the Mavs. There's always a chance for Doncic to win the trophy if Dallas end the season as Top 5 team in the West and Luka finish the season strong as narrative to sway the voters. I won't even count them out as darkhorse contender, Luka and healthy Kyrie are proven playoffs performers and you always have a chance if you have those 2 stars in your roster come playoffs time but they need another big to have a fighting chance, maybe someone like Capela or even Dwight Howard if they can't get anyone past trade deadline.

[RB34]

Embiid is #1 of a lot of rankings out there but if it comes down to the wire will last seasons Jokic narrative be used against him?

Embiid is the only MVP to never make a conference finals. Can you be a two time MVP without a conference finals appearance? If it is close enough could Luka win because of this?

[Hussien Fatal]

Embiid is #1 of a lot of rankings out there but if it comes down to the wire will last seasons Jokic narrative be used against him?

Embiid is the only MVP to never make a conference finals. Can you be a two time MVP without a conference finals appearance? If it is close enough could Luka win because of this?

It’s a regular season award not a make it to the conference finals award. With that said Embiid is head and shoulders above the rest. The man has a PER of 34.4 you can’t really argue against that especially considering the Sixers are 18-5 when he plays.

[bigboi]

JaVP. And no, Fox was never better than Ja

[JWillTheFreak]

This another tier level is funny Embidd, Giannis, SGA, Joker and Luka are in the same tier so far, the season is still young anything can happen. Its gonna come down to the record of the team at the end of the year... Sure if the season ended today Embidd would probably win and I don't think anyone would have a problem with that.

[GeorgeSears]

Embiid is #1 of a lot of rankings out there but if it comes down to the wire will last seasons Jokic narrative be used against him?

Embiid is the only MVP to never make a conference finals. Can you be a two time MVP without a conference finals appearance? If it is close enough could Luka win because of this?

We'll find out how much Jokic wants to win the award in the next 13 games or so. The Nuggets have the 4th easiest remaining schedule in the NBA, their next 13 are all very winnable. We'll see how many shot attempts he's willing to put up.

[scrabbarista]

Embiid is #1 of a lot of rankings out there but if it comes down to the wire will last seasons Jokic narrative be used against him?

Embiid is the only MVP to never make a conference finals. Can you be a two time MVP without a conference finals appearance? If it is close enough could Luka win because of this?

We'll find out how much Jokic wants to win the award in the next 13 games or so. The Nuggets have the 4th easiest remaining schedule in the NBA, their next 13 are all very winnable. We'll see how many shot attempts he's willing to put up.

Pretty sure it's not a priority. But neither were the previous two that he won...

[RB34]

Embiid is #1 of a lot of rankings out there but if it comes down to the wire will last seasons Jokic narrative be used against him?

Embiid is the only MVP to never make a conference finals. Can you be a two time MVP without a conference finals appearance? If it is close enough could Luka win because of this?

It’s a regular season award not a make it to the conference finals award. With that said Embiid is head and shoulders above the rest. The man has a PER of 34.4 you can’t really argue against that especially considering the Sixers are 18-5 when he plays.

18-5 is slightly misleading considering he has sat games against contending teams.

[iggymcfrack]

Embiid is #1 of a lot of rankings out there but if it comes down to the wire will last seasons Jokic narrative be used against him?

Embiid is the only MVP to never make a conference finals. Can you be a two time MVP without a conference finals appearance? If it is close enough could Luka win because of this?

It’s a regular season award not a make it to the conference finals award. With that said Embiid is head and shoulders above the rest. The man has a PER of 34.4 you can’t really argue against that especially considering the Sixers are 18-5 when he plays.

18-5 is slightly misleading considering he has sat games against contending teams.

Seriously, here's the list in order of teams Philly's played by SRS adjusting for homecourt:

@ Boston 13.3 (sit out)
@ OKC 10.3
@ Minnesota 10.1 (sit out)
vs. Boston 7.3
vs. Boston 7.3
@ Milwaukee 6.7
@ New Orleans 5.0 (sit out)
@ Brooklyn 4.1
@ Atlanta 3.3
@ Toronto 1.5
vs. Cleveland -1.7
vs. Atlanta -2.7
vs. LA Lakers -2.9
vs. Indiana -3.1
vs. Indiana -3.1
vs. Phoenix -3.3
vs. Toronto -4.5
vs. Chicago -6.0
@ Washington -6.4
@ Detroit -8.1
@ Detroit -8.1
vs. Portland -10.4
vs. Washington -12.4
vs. Washington -12.4
vs. Detroit -14.1

Average SRS of teams sat out against: 9.5
Average SRS of teams played: -2.6