The Washington Commanders Thread

[gambitx777]

If Daniels is on the board when we pick, do we draft him?

Goes back to the Sam Howell debate...it's up to the new GM.

In my opinion, they should take BPA every pick. Don't worry about position. If the new GM grades Daniels as the best player at their pick, then take him. I'm desperately hoping they can get to 3rd and have a shot at Harrison Jr, but a lot of things would have to work out for that to happen.

I've made my opinion very clear on this so I won't be at a dead horse on that account but I will say I don't see a reason to take Daniels in the first when you can get a very similar build and skill set QB in someone like Jordan Travis in the 4th or 5th round. The only thing that stands out about Daniels is the TD numbers and that's an outlier for him. So no I wouldn't take him in the first round nor even high in the second although I don't think that's too high for him. I think that's just too high for us to take him.

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[Zonkerbl]

wow go Bengals

[gambitx777]

When thinking we could get Caleb Williams everyone should go watch the movie draft day!

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[LyricalRico]

Started a thread about Frank Wycheck on the official football team board: viewtopic.php?f=182&t=2339251

[W. Unseld]

Right now we are at 4th, assuming there is a top tier QB still available I say trade down b/c we need a lot and Howell has earned the opportunity to play behind a better O-line and play when the defense has to half way worry about the run (not a BRob criticism). I think they should draft left tackle, as good left tackles seldom make it to free agency, obtain right tackle in free agency. Everything else will depend on scheme and the GM's evaluation but I can't imagine a GM looking at this team and not thinking they need O-line help immediately.

Defense needs help too but I gotta believe if Darrell Green is willing to speak up and say something new coaches could go along way here.

[Dark Faze]

Definitely agree with the trade down route. We need as many picks as we can get.

McLaurin needs to be traded yesterday while he can still net a 1st/2nd rounder.

[TGW]

If the new GM comes in and drafts a quarterback with their pick, and the QB is BPA, I'm on board with that. He doesn't have allegiances to anyone on this team. Get the best franchise-changing player available. Howell is not a franchise QB and it would be foolish to pass on one to "get Howell more help."

[gambitx777]

If the new GM comes in and drafts a quarterback with their pick, and the QB is BPA, I'm on board with that. He doesn't have allegiances to anyone on this team. Get the best franchise-changing player available. Howell is not a franchise QB and it would be foolish to pass on one to "get Howell more help."

It's not getting Howell help it's make the team better. Howell is a top 10-15 QB right now. It's crazy to move on from him like that. There are gonna be other QB prospects when the O line inst trash. It's asset management. Other teams do it well, taking a QB in the first or second round would be poor asset management.

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[pancakes3]

everyone preaches the importance of o-line until it comes draft time smh

[Dark Faze]

Looking at draft rankings, I'd say there's a good chance we go O-Line. There's a few in the top 10 range from a few ratings lists I've seen.

I would not be against nabbing tight end Brock Bowers. An elite tight end can be a better security blanket for a QB than an elite WR most of the time--big targets that are hard to miss and are generally safer to throw to given being covered by linebackers who are generally poorer in coverage. A perpetually healthy Jordan Reed might have made the Cousins/Gruden era successful.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Looking at draft rankings, I'd say there's a good chance we go O-Line. There's a few in the top 10 range from a few ratings lists I've seen.

I would not be against nabbing tight end Brock Bowers. An elite tight end can be a better security blanket for a QB than an elite WR most of the time--big targets that are hard to miss and are generally safer to throw to given being covered by linebackers who are generally poorer in coverage. A perpetually healthy Jordan Reed might have made the Cousins/Gruden era successful.

Agreed, but I think we can grab the Texas TE in the second round. If Caleb Williams falls to us, we should grab him. If Harrison does, ditto. If not, there are two stud OTs at the top of the draft.

[TGW]

Looking at draft rankings, I'd say there's a good chance we go O-Line. There's a few in the top 10 range from a few ratings lists I've seen.

I would not be against nabbing tight end Brock Bowers. An elite tight end can be a better security blanket for a QB than an elite WR most of the time--big targets that are hard to miss and are generally safer to throw to given being covered by linebackers who are generally poorer in coverage. A perpetually healthy Jordan Reed might have made the Cousins/Gruden era successful.

Agreed, but I think we can grab the Texas TE in the second round. If Caleb Williams falls to us, we should grab him. If Harrison does, ditto. If not, there are two stud OTs at the top of the draft.

Jatavion Sanders is nowhere close to Bowers and would be a terrible pick in the second round IMO. He's a 3rd rounder at best.

Bowers is Gronk Jr. He's arguably the second best offensive player in the draft.

[gambitx777]

Imm gonna channel my inner pif.
https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb

Really study this chart. And you'll understand why I feel the way I do at the QB position.

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[gambitx777]

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[Benjammin]

Albert Breer floated the idea of Mike Tomlin either to the Commanders or Panthers because their owners were both minority owners of the Steelers previously and know Tomlin well fwiw.

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[Silvie Lysandra]

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Using the draft to "fill holes" works about as well in the NFL as it did for Tommy Sheppard. The NFL is a superstar league, and we have no superstars. It's also a QB league, and Howell is not a good QB, and historically, good QBs cluster near the top of the 1st round. Yes, it's very weird that the the GOAT was a 6th rounder, and that another all time great QB was a 3rd, but it's also survivorship bias - most late round QBs *do not* make it. Yes you can get a Brock Purdy every few years, or a Kirk Cousins, but you can't plan around that because you simply can't compete without a QB or being amazing at drafting around the QB (not just good, amazing)

It's not getting Howell help it's make the team better. Howell is a top 10-15 QB right now. It's crazy to move on from him like that. There are gonna be other QB prospects when the O line inst trash. It's asset management. Other teams do it well, taking a QB in the first or second round would be poor asset management.

Advanced stats have him in the 20s and trending downwards (and a lot of his sacks are credited to him playing poorly, missing open WRs). There was a point where he looked like a top half QB even with that, but the wheels have come off.

QB has a level of impact that's close to that of a superstar in the NBA - yes the QB doesn't play defense, but he also has a 70-80% usage rate on offense, assuming you don't factor in handoffs at all (keep in mind the RPO exists, and play action is heavily influenced by the QB selling it)

[gambitx777]

Read on Twitter

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Using the draft to "fill holes" works about as well in the NFL as it did for Tommy Sheppard. The NFL is a superstar league, and we have no superstars. It's also a QB league, and Howell is not a good QB, and historically, good QBs cluster near the top of the 1st round. Yes, it's very weird that the the GOAT was a 6th rounder, and that another all time great QB was a 3rd, but it's also survivorship bias - most late round QBs *do not* make it. Yes you can get a Brock Purdy every few years, or a Kirk Cousins, but you can't plan around that because you simply can't compete without a QB or being amazing at drafting around the QB (not just good, amazing)

It's not getting Howell help it's make the team better. Howell is a top 10-15 QB right now. It's crazy to move on from him like that. There are gonna be other QB prospects when the O line inst trash. It's asset management. Other teams do it well, taking a QB in the first or second round would be poor asset management.

Advanced stats have him in the 20s and trending downwards (and a lot of his sacks are credited to him playing poorly, missing open WRs). There was a point where he looked like a top half QB even with that, but the wheels have come off.

QB has a level of impact that's close to that of a superstar in the NBA - yes the QB doesn't play defense, but he also has a 70-80% usage rate on offense, assuming you don't factor in handoffs at all (keep in mind the RPO exists, and play action is heavily influenced by the QB selling it)

From 2009-2019 32 QBs were taken in the first round. Of those, 4 are currently starters for the teams that drafted them. Mahomes, Allen, Murray and lamar. 3 more are still starters on other teams. Stafford, Goff, Mayfield. 2 more are hurt but may not have starting jobs next year. Jones and desean Jackson. 3 more of those were Wentz, Cam and luck. That's 12 players out of 32. 37 percent. They numbers can get played with a bit by moving the years around but the numbers for first round QBs ultimatly being worth the picks are small and ever smaller for the team that took them. Infact the further you go the more you see that the Tony Brady, Brock purdy, Kirk cousins, Fitzpatrick, Dak, is more common than you think.

The NFL isn't a star driven league at all. I don't know where you got that from. Marketing maybe but as far as a Superbowl and winning go. It's usually the best over all team in the end. Yes super stars can change the picture of a team and effect out comes but no star can win on a bad team. It just doesn't happen.

The mock draft I put together wasn't patching wholes it was fixing positions. Two top ten guards, two top ten tackles and a top 5 center isn't a patch it's solving a problem.

Also on Sam Howell. The kids lead the league in yards at points this season. Has decent TD numbers and looks good. It's not his fault he's running for his life behind a **** OL with one good player on it and a defence that can't hold a lead. A lot of his issues are fixed with a competent OL. Now does he have other issues yes and he needs to work on those but for **** sakes the dudes a first year starter in his second year in the league.

No reason to waste a high draft pick on a QB right now that is just gonna get destroyed on a bad team as a rookie. Let same develop as you fix the team. He either gets better and is the guy or you find the guy in a year or two that you can pull into a good team.

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[TGW]

Yea I don’t know what the new GM will do…I imagine that he is isn’t passing up what he perceives as a franchise qb (or a franchise player in general) for a poopoo platter of players.

If Williams, Maye, or Daniels is there, I’m sure the new FO will be doing their due diligence for sure. Personally I believe QB will be the pick there unless Harrison is available, but that’s just my guess. A new GM is going to want to make an immediate splash and you don’t get any splashier than a new quarterback.

[gambitx777]

Yea I don’t know what the new GM will do…I imagine that he is isn’t passing up what he perceives as a franchise qb (or a franchise player in general) for a poopoo platter of players.

If Williams, Maye, or Daniels is there, I’m sure the new FO will be doing their due diligence for sure. Personally I believe QB will be the pick there unless Harrison is available, but that’s just my guess. A new GM is going to want to make an immediate splash and you don’t get any splashier than a new quarterback.

I've had this argument for weeks now with people and it's so frustrating. Like that's just not how to build a football team. QB are such a. Weird position to scout. They have money to burn i think the splash will be in free agency. But to call fixing the most important position in football a poopoo player is just silly. No QB can win with out an good O line. People forget that Sam was a 5 th rounder getting a starting level QB in the 5th round is really good value, looking back at that draft Brock and Sam are with out a doubt the two best QBs from that draft hands down. They aren't gonna hire some dip **** who wants to make a splash they should and hopefully are gonna hire good solid minded football guys who knows what they are doing. No real solid foot ball mind is gonna look at what Sam did with a terrible O line, no defence and maybe the worst staff in the league behind them and just toss the kid aside. How embarrassing would it be for a new GM to draft Daniels or Williams and have Sam beat him out next year or Trade Sam to a better situation and have Sam ball out better than the rookie. Fix the team let Sam develop while you rebuild the team then reassess. We say this all the time about the wizards you can't have quick fixes you need to build a team.

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[tontoz]

Howell is on a cheap contract through 2025 so I am pretty sure he will be here for awhile regardless of what they do in the draft.

If we draft a QB there is nothing wrong with having two young QBs.