The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[NatP4]

Buzelis is in a tier by himself

[pcbothwel]

Buzelis is in a tier by himself

Agreed. I had him at 1 before the injury, but his production and IQ at this age are clear.
The Topic/Sarr/Castle/Holland grouping behind him will be interesting to watch.

[NatP4]

So 5 games back in action with the Ignite:

20.4 points 7.2 rebounds 1.6 assists 1.5 steals 1.9 blocks 64.8% TS

Tankathon has Buzelis falling below our pick to #4. Ridiculous.

[NatP4]

Picking up another 1st should be priority #1 at the deadline.

Reed Sheppard is an outstanding role player, future impact NBA player.

Ryan Dunn is a lock to be a solid NBA player

Kylan Boswell from Arizona is a future quality NBA guard. He’s been elite at 18 years old this year. Elite A/TO ratio, elite defense, elite 3pt shooting.

Guys like Walter and Castle will be great pickups in the 6-12 range.

[NatP4]

I’m pretty set on Reed Sheppard being one of the best players in the class. I get that he’s built like Grayson Allen, but his numbers are flat out ridiculous:

17.6 points 6.2 rebounds 5.1 assists 1.2 blocks 4.1 steals only 1.8 turnovers 1.8 fouls 61/59/92 shooting splits, good for a ridiculous 80% TS and he’s probably the best defensive guard in college basketball.

I can’t think of a comparable. He’s an even better shooting prospect than Klay Thompson, plays Jalen Suggs level guard defense, and has 99 percentile basketball IQ/intangibles. There’s legit lead guard instincts. He’s like if Delon Wright had Klay Thompson shooting ability.

Right now, I love Buzelis and Topic, Castle is a bit of an afterthought due to injuries, but after that, it might be Reed Sheppard for me.

Freshman college players don’t put 25-9-6-2 on 17 shots or 25-5-4-3-1 on 13 shots in only 30 minutes against a good Miami team.

[doclinkin]

I’m pretty set on Reed Sheppard being one of the best players in the class. I get that he’s built like Grayson Allen, but his numbers are flat out ridiculous:

17.6 points 6.2 rebounds 5.1 assists 1.2 blocks 4.1 steals only 1.8 turnovers 1.8 fouls 61/59/92 shooting splits, good for a ridiculous 80% TS and he’s probably the best defensive guard in college basketball.

How much of Reed Sheppard's efficiency is due to Rob Dillingham drawing all the attention. Sheppard hits open shots and makes smart passes, doesn't turn the ball over because he'd rather pass quick than overhandle. Good player. Right place right time all the time, which is a talent all its own. He has the luxury of being overlooked is all. Compare Reed's 17% usage to Dills' 28%. Sheppard doesn't have to break down a defense singlehandedly since Dillingham is doing the work for him.

To that point Dills hitting 50% from 3 on 5 shots a game is a nice look considering everyone knows he's taking the shot. And at that usage to carry an assist/turnover rate of 5:1.8 is pretty eyepopping. He's small but If he were coming out in the small ball/combo guard era he'd be higher up everyone's list. Interesting that tankathon has Sheppard one pick ahead of him. Curious what scouts think.

PG wise I'd take R Dill over Isaiah Collier for instance. Collier is aggressive and big but turns the ball over too much and Rob Dill's got that razzle to his dazzle.

Watch on YouTube

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[nate33]

I’m pretty set on Reed Sheppard being one of the best players in the class. I get that he’s built like Grayson Allen, but his numbers are flat out ridiculous:

17.6 points 6.2 rebounds 5.1 assists 1.2 blocks 4.1 steals only 1.8 turnovers 1.8 fouls 61/59/92 shooting splits, good for a ridiculous 80% TS and he’s probably the best defensive guard in college basketball.

I can’t think of a comparable. He’s an even better shooting prospect than Klay Thompson, plays Jalen Suggs level guard defense, and has 99 percentile basketball IQ/intangibles. There’s legit lead guard instincts. He’s like if Delon Wright had Klay Thompson shooting ability.

Right now, I love Buzelis and Topic, Castle is a bit of an afterthought due to injuries, but after that, it might be Reed Sheppard for me.

Freshman college players don’t put 25-9-6-2 on 17 shots or 25-5-4-3-1 on 13 shots in only 30 minutes against a good Miami team.

I watched some video on Sheppard. The way he moves and shoots reminds me a lot of Mark Price. His shooting is impressive, but what's more impressive is his ability to get balanced and square instantly and get the ball off with a quick, high release, either off the bounce on on the catch-and-shoot. And as you pointed out, the defense is really impressive too.

I think the make or break skill with him will be if he can play point guard at the NBA level and really run an offense with the ball in his hands. If he is limited to being an off-ball player it's going to be a problem because teams just can't afford to have two short guys on the floor these days (I'm assuming he would be alongside another short guard who is playing point). Basically, he would be another Donte Divincenzo. But if he can run an offense, then he could be extremely valuable - Mark Price with D.

Certainly, that quick-release off the dribble 3-ball could serve as the foundation for elite PG play. It puts so much pressure on the defense to challenge the high screen that it opens everything else up as long as he has the ball handling to capitalize. If you think about it, that's all Damion Lillard really did. He is athletically an unremarkable player, but because he shoots so well off the dribble, he's an All-NBA talent.

[NatP4]

Steph Curry was the same kind of player in college. I think that’s the kind of situation we have here with Reed Sheppard: an extremely rare case of 99 percentile skills/feel for the game/intangibles.

Another mid major skill guy from last year: Brandin Podziemski has been very good as a rookie for GS. Looks like a steal.

I’d say Sheppard exists on a spectrum from Divincenzo to Klay Thompson, and he’s closer to the latter.

[NatP4]

Dillingham is solid, but I think Sheppard opens it up for him to have success. Dillingham is also still just 18 and stuffing that stat sheet. Great sign for the future

But make no mistake, Wagner and Edwards are flat out terrible. Dillingham and Sheppard are driving the bus for UK.

[doclinkin]

Steph Curry was the same kind of player in college.

Ha! Maybe. I don't see it yet. Stef was a one man teamkiller. A high usage high efficiency assassin. He played on Davidson, with zero talent around him. I forget the team that literally decided to quadruple-team Stef for an entire game. Full court press. Nobody is gearing up to meet Reed with that kind of pressure. Stef was taking 20 shots a game. (Though I see Sheppard took 17 in a loss against UNCW. Okay. Maybe he can take a heavier load).

I like the kid. I want to see more. His game awareness is definitely next level. He and Dillingham both benefit from each other, the one with the all-court awareness, the other with superior handle and wiggle.

[NatP4]

Tankathons top 10:

Holland-not a fan
Sarr-unsure-haven’t watched enough
Collier-awful
Buzelis-big fan
Topic-big fan
Risacher-unsure-very strange prospect
Walter-meh
Castle-love the potential, but unsure about ability to stay healthy.
Sheppard-big fan
Clingan-meh

Sheppard looks like the Franz Wagner type steal in that 8-12 range. There will absolutely be a total bust taken top 3. My money is on one of Holland/Collier/Sarr. Topic is the big wildcard. He could be the best player in the draft. Castle has SGA type upside but his frame looks so injury prone to me.

[doclinkin]

A few from the top of the list. Not in order. Just thoughts looking through the tankathon mock.

Sarr- huge and nimble. Unfinished but playing in a pro league that has shown some ability for their talent to translate. Without looking it up I get the impression NBL players have translated to NBA play quicker than G League Ignite talents.

Buzelis- Love his skillset, poise. Talented on offense and a willing defender. See 'G-League' reservations above, but I still like him. Chiefly because it'd be hilarious to corner the market on rangy 6'9" guys who play multiple positions. Just get us a center who can pass and we can play them all at once.

Topić- Hard to tell for me. Prodigy at the point, maybe, but the league has struggled to integrate the type of tall PG that doesn't shoot threes. Not crazy athletic either, most of his scoring is junkball lay-ups and midrange stuff. I wonder if half of those shots get erased vs NBA athletes. As guards only SGA and DeRozan consistently feed on points mid-range and in. He isn't at their speed.

Castle- smooth athlete. Plays like he is unhurried but is more athletic than you. In athletic smoothitude he reminds me of a Kelly Oubre, if KO were actually as good at the game as it looks like he should be. Castle took a knee injury so they are slow-playing it. But footage of him vs Isaiah Collier in multiple HS games show a real next-level talent. Willing rebounder. Willing passer. Maybe a little too cool?

Sheppard- a mind for the game, reads like the kind of player who is a lifer in the game, will coach after his career, then be a GM somewhere.

Clingan- he's aiight as a defensive deterrant, but there's a long list of playable Bigs coming out this year. I don't see him significantly better than the rest of the C's on the list. I'm good selecting from the long list of Centers, upperclassmen included. No point taking one high, some selected later will be way undervalued. The league is starting to get Big again.

Dillingham: imagine if Jordan Poole actually hit those wild shots he dribbles into. And didn't turn the ball over. Imagine being as good as Jordan Poole thinks he is? That's what RDills looks like to me. This kid is going to sell some tickets.

Kyle Filipowski. See 'long list of centers' that I'd be happy with. See also: centers that can pass. His steals numbers at 7' tall are really eye opening. Bigs who make assists and steals generally can defend at the next level. And tend to work well in switchy defenses. He'd fit well as a Tall Ball 4/5 who can play the high-post role that Porzingis played for us. Playable 2-way C. Highly skilled If not dominant.

Watch on YouTube

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Kel'El Ware. Another in that list. With more athletic upside. Dude floats up the floor with long strides. Developing outside shot, rangy and long. Room to build more strength on that frame. I think I have him neck and neck with Sarr actually. He shows both production and potential. Maybe needs more 'motor'. But maybe that comes with confidence and success.

Watch on YouTube

I like a few more lower down. Another one of those drafts I'd rather trade back than be in the 1-5 range.

[doclinkin]

Article in the athletic reminds me that what this FO looks for is: Length at the Position, BBIQ, and work ethic. The first category would tend to rule out players like Dillingham.

[dobrojim]

Have not been paying close attention but DET on a 23 game losing streak.

We got work to do.

[nate33]

Topić- Hard to tell for me. Prodigy at the point, maybe, but the league has struggled to integrate the type of tall PG that doesn't shoot threes. Not crazy athletic either, most of his scoring is junkball lay-ups and midrange stuff. I wonder if half of those shots get erased vs NBA athletes. As guards only SGA and DeRozan consistently feed on points mid-range and in. He isn't at their speed.

Agreed. He seems like a risk this high in the lottery. I can see him panning out, but I can also see him being a bust. I don't like gambling high picks on guys who are neither athletes nor shooters. All the bball IQ in the world doesn't help much if you can't do one of those two things at an extremely high level. I'd like him at #10 or so, but he scares me in the top 5 where we are likely to pick.

Kyle Filipowski. See 'long list of centers' that I'd be happy with. See also: centers that can pass. His steals numbers at 7' tall are really eye opening. Bigs who make assists and steals generally can defend at the next level. And tend to work well in switchy defenses. He'd fit well as a Tall Ball 4/5 who can play the high-post role that Porzingis played for us. Playable 2-way C. Highly skilled If not dominant.

Good point on the assists and steals for bigs. I'll also add that he has a low turnover rate leaving to a 2.4 A/TO ratio, which is incredible for a college center.

[pancakes3]

Article in the athletic reminds me that what this FO looks for is: Length at the Position, BBIQ, and work ethic. The first category would tend to rule out players like Dillingham.

ok but explain poole then (yeah i know, it was more to get rid of beal than to get poole)

[Frichuela]

We shall tank for 3 years…

Read on Twitter

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[doclinkin]

Article in the athletic reminds me that what this FO looks for is: Length at the Position, BBIQ, and work ethic. The first category would tend to rule out players like Dillingham.

ok but explain poole then (yeah i know, it was more to get rid of beal than to get poole)

Seems to me Poole would be the exception that proves the rule. If they were inclined to go small to see if it works, then this move would have shown the error of the move.

Still, we know the point was really: flexibility in future moves, and starting the tank. Poole has given both, even if the 2nd was unintended. Maybe. I think they were smart enough to know he was going to stink on defense. I think they hoped he'd be fun to watch on offense. And by the time his contract was up we'd have landed a few better prospects via smart drafting.

The question really is 'explain Tyus Jones then'. Since he has been good but can't help but be small. But that was simply a something-for-nothing trade since we were about to lose Zinger anyway. And again, we are losing. So maybe they were assembling a tank with known flaws. Aiming 2-3 years down the road.

[nate33]

We shall tank for 3 years…

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We may well be tanking for 3 years, but that tweet overstates the need to tank hard in 2026.

First of all, our pick is top 8 protected. The tweet is worried about dropping to #8, but the issue is falling all the way to #9, not #8. If we pick 8th, we still keep the pick.

The 4 worst teams are guaranteed to pick 8th or better.
The 5th worst team has a 0.6% chance of falling all the way to 9th - an extremely remote chance not worth worrying about.
The 6th worst team has a 3.8% chance of falling all the way to 9th - still a very, very unlikely scenario.

It's not until we get down to the 7th worst team that we really start having a serious risk of losing that pick. The 7th worst team has a 14.4% chance of falling to the #9 pick or lower.

So we need to finish in the bottom 6, but it's not that critical to finish in the bottom 3.

[pcbothwel]

We shall tank for 3 years…

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=GWeuz7j_sc5cBYZzdD92Tw

We may well be tanking for 3 years, but that tweet overstates the need to tank hard in 2026.

First of all, our pick is top 8 protected. The tweet is worried about dropping to #8, but the issue is falling all the way to #9, not #8. If we pick 8th, we still keep the pick.

The 4 worst teams are guaranteed to pick 8th or better.
The 5th worst team has a 0.6% chance of falling all the way to 9th - an extremely remote chance not worth worrying about.
The 6th worst team has a 3.8% chance of falling all the way to 9th - still a very, very unlikely scenario.

It's not until we get down to the 7th worst team that we really start having a serious risk of losing that pick. The 7th worst team has a 14.4% chance of falling to the #9 pick or lower.

So we need to finish in the bottom 6, but it's not that critical to finish in the bottom 3.

What in the hell are people talking about?!? If this FO is competent there is no way we have a top 8 pick in 2026.
Look at Houston, OKC, ORL, ATL, CLE etc... Picking top 8 Four Years in a row is almost unheard of and requires a high level of incompetence and bad luck.
The only teams I see in recent history would be "The Process", Detroit, and Post-LBJ Cavs. But they all missed terribly on multiple picks and/or had multiple injuries. Sure, if we draft Fultz, Okafor, Anthony Bennett, and Dion Waiters then we will probably by in top 8...
The goal is simple. Deni, Bilal, plus two top 6 picks should be enough of a core to get into the playoffs in 2026. Especially if we can flip our current vets for additional assets.