The Washington Commanders Thread

Silvie Lysandra · Post #241 » by **Silvie Lysandra** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 12:37 am

gambitx777 wrote:It's not getting Howell help it's make the team better. Howell is a top 10-15 QB right now. It's crazy to move on from him like that. There are gonna be other QB prospects when the O line inst trash. It's asset management. Other teams do it well, taking a QB in the first or second round would be poor asset management.

Advanced stats have him in the 20s and trending downwards (and a lot of his sacks are credited to him playing poorly, missing open WRs). There was a point where he looked like a top half QB even with that, but the wheels have come off.

From 2009-2019 32 QBs were taken in the first round. Of those, 4 are currently starters for the teams that drafted them. Mahomes, Allen, Murray and lamar. 3 more are still starters on other teams. Stafford, Goff, Mayfield. 2 more are hurt but may not have starting jobs next year. Jones and desean Jackson. 3 more of those were Wentz, Cam and luck. That's 12 players out of 32. 37 percent. They numbers can get played with a bit by moving the years around but the numbers for first round QBs ultimatly being worth the picks are small and ever smaller for the team that took them. Infact the further you go the more you see that the Tony Brady, Brock purdy, Kirk cousins, Fitzpatrick, Dak, is more common than you think.

Survivorship bias. Yes, there are quite a few solid QBs that come out of the later rounds. But this ignores the sheer volume of QBs taken past the 1st round. In a 10 year span, you're looking at roughly 100 QBs taken past the first 16 picks. And yet we have less than half of the top 16 from that sample size. You think 35-40% hit rate is bad? Try 3-5%.

If you look at the top 16 QBs in PFF, you get this:

Of this year's top 16 QBs, Eight of them were taken within the top 16 picks.

The NFL isn't a star driven league at all. I don't know where you got that from. Marketing maybe but as far as a Superbowl and winning go. It's usually the best over all team in the end. Yes super stars can change the picture of a team and effect out comes but no star can win on a bad team. It just doesn't happen.

How's that different from the NBA? You still need a great team around a superstar. You still often need a *second* superstar. That doesn't make the superstar less necessary. Super Bowls are won by the team with elite QB play.

The mock draft I put together wasn't patching wholes it was fixing positions. Two top ten guards, two top ten tackles and a top 5 center isn't a patch it's solving a problem.

Basically "draft a bunch of OL because boomer football logic says BUILD THE TRENCHES" meanwhile the last few Super Bowls are basically all won by who has the better QB. Also even if all those OL hit, you have to pay them.

The Hogs are never coming back. You cannot build and sustain the Hogs in the salary cap era. You might get 3-4 years of elite play out of that group, then you have to start letting guys walk.

Also on Sam Howell. The kids lead the league in yards at points this season. Has decent TD numbers and looks good. It's not his fault he's running for his life behind a **** OL with one good player on it and a defence that can't hold a lead. A lot of his issues are fixed with a competent OL. Now does he have other issues yes and he needs to work on those but for **** sakes the dudes a first year starter in his second year in the league.

He leads the league in dropbacks as well. His yards per attempt, especially adjusting for the sacks, is really bad. Leads the league in INTs as well, and again, the QB is responsible for a lot of sacks. Taking sacks was a problem in college. It's good that the offense was looking decent on that level of volume, but the last 4 weeks have shown that maybe this is a mirage. Many, many late round QBs look like steals for a few games, then defenses get more tape on them and the things that made them drop so many rounds are exposed.

Also, if you dig deep into his stats, you can actually look at his sacks from a clean pocket - they're actually very mediocre. Good QBs should be racking up numbers when they're not being pressured, but Sam doesn't. He could definitely improve, but sack rate tends to be sticky, and he's not an elite prospect.

No reason to waste a high draft pick on a QB right now that is just gonna get destroyed on a bad team as a rookie. Let same develop as you fix the team. He either gets better and is the guy or you find the guy in a year or two that you can pull into a good team.

Lots of teams take their QB then fix the team. Worked for Buffalo, worked for Cincy. Worked for Jacksonville. Is working for Houston. QBs that get "shellshocked" generally wouldn't have worked out anyway. Hell, RGIII carried a 4-12 team to 10-6 with a **** roster and a #2 WR pretending to be a #1.

Also, we have 90m in cap space - we can throw that at FA OL so we can draft for impact talent on draft day. And trading down is how you get a lot of mid talent to Fill Holes while not having any difference makers. Or in other words, the Ron Rivera/Tommy Sheppard approach.

pancakes3 · Post #242 » by **pancakes3** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 3:49 am

building the line isn't boomer football. drafting linemen doesn't mean going back to 3 yards in a cloud of dust (although tush push makes a very sharp argument for the value of guaranteed 3 yard plays); you need blockers even if you throw it every down. moreover, those lineman not only play every down, they're part of the play every down. it just doesn't show up in the highlights. with pass rushers getting paid out the butt, O-line is more important than ever. those guys aren't just out there for show, or as a vestige of a bygone era.

blocking schemes have only gotten more complex, and you need smart, athletic players on the line. multiple skillsets, on top of them being able to communicate and work together. it's incredibly difficult to build a good offensive line. i guess the counterargument for drafting linemen, if there is one, is that linemen are difficult to evaluate, so with more risk, you shouldn't waste first rounders on them, as opposed to qb's and other positions where the tape and the measurables are more apparent and easier to gauge.

boomer football means a 50/50 passing/rushing split, and overpaying running backs. boomer football means that passes need to go for 10+ yards. boomer football means not going for it on 4th down ever. drafting linemen is not an antiquated tradition.

Silvie Lysandra · Post #243 » by **Silvie Lysandra** » Sat Dec 23, 2023 4:15 am

drafting 5 OL in the first 3 rounds, and ignoring QB is absolutely boomer football. Especially when you're trading down instead of passing up premium tackles in Alt and Fashanu (well, I think Alt doesn't have elite upside, but he's almost guaranteed to give you an Okung type career). The idea that you can throw a mediocre QB behind an elite line and have an elite passing attack just doesn't work, and hasn't been true for years. An elite OL didn't make Joe Flacco into an elite QB. It didn't make Desmond Riddler into an elite QB. It didn't make Gardner Minshew into an elite QB. It likely won't make Sam Howell into an elite QB - what would make Sam Howell an elite QB is if he cleaned up his propensity to take bad sacks and hold the ball instead of trusting his WRs. And if you aren't sure you have QB, you generally don't. Especially when we're in position to take a top QB prospect. If we were sitting at 6 wins and considering Nix or McCarthy, I'd understand rolling with Sam again, but the reality is that your top flight starters are clustered at the top of the draft.

Also in terms of analytics, the OL is "not that bad". Leno is ok, Cosmi is borderline elite, Wylie is average (but when he gets beat he gets beat embarrassingly bad). The real problem spots for us are LG and C. Paul, Charles, Gates and Larsen are the worst IOL in the NFL. But you can actually fill those holes in FA. There are usually solid FA guards. A good FA tackle would potentially free up Wylie to move back to LG where he was solid.

gambitx777 · Post #244 » by **gambitx777** » Sun Dec 24, 2023 4:32 am

So I'll address a few of these.

#1. Sam Howell.
He has a terrific arm. He's smart. He has play making ability. Yes he has some issues. He needs to ball manage better. most of his issues are fixable and he has put up decent number and deserves to be in conversation for a starting job.

#2. The boomer football mind set comment.
So in my mock I drafted 5 OL man. That isn't boomer football. That's just foot ball. Menshew and Joe flaco were mentioned well they have pretty good ols and they are about to both be in the play offs. Boomer football has nothing to do with being good in the trenches because that is still super valuable to this day.

#3 on comments on my mock draft.
Yeah I used a bunch of high picks on 4 really good prospects. 2 top ten guards 2 top ten tackles and arguably the 2ed best center in the draft. How on earth is that a bad thing? Yes we have one really solid OL guy in cosmi everyone else is avargenor below we need an infusion of talent and the position and competition. As for the comment about let's get online on the open market online men good ones don't often make it to the open market. Also I didn't neglect the other positions I drafted some defensive help. A huge TE, an underrated WR form a very good team and a huge athletic QB with a cannon for an arm.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

Silvie Lysandra · Post #245 » by **Silvie Lysandra** » Sun Dec 24, 2023 5:40 am

gambitx777 wrote:So I'll address a few of these.

#1. Sam Howell.
He has a terrific arm. He's smart. He has play making ability. Yes he has some issues. He needs to ball manage better. most of his issues are fixable and he has put up decent number and deserves to be in conversation for a starting job.

He's put up good volume numbers on terrible efficiency. Can his issues improve? Yes. But again, the statistical reality is that 5th round QBs generally *don't* pan out as top 10 starters. Why? Because the NFL *generally* identifies flaws that drastically lower their ceiling. For every Tom Brady, there are 30 John Becks. For every Brock Purdy, there are 30 Nate Stanleys. Now, with that said, he's shown enough that it'd be worth giving him another shot *if* we weren't in position to draft a high end talent at QB.

#2. The boomer football mind set comment.
So in my mock I drafted 5 OL man. That isn't boomer football. That's just foot ball. Menshew and Joe flaco were mentioned well they have pretty good ols and they are about to both be in the play offs. Boomer football has nothing to do with being good in the trenches because that is still super valuable to this day.

Boomer football isn't wanting to build up the OL. Boomer football is throwing all your resources at the OL thinking you're going to recreate the Hogs, and every other position will take care of itself.

Yeah, Minshew and Flacco are going to sneak into the playoffs and be first round exits in all likelihood after they lose to the franchise QBs. Meanwhile Stafford might carry a gutted Rams team back to the playoffs.

Now, take a look at where those OLs were drafted. Lots of 3rd and 4th rounders. That's another thing I don't get - the idea that you can't build the OL while investing draft capital on a QB. Teams do it all the time. Apparently we can't. You mention Minshew, but ignore they *also* took a QB top 4.

You know what teams don't do? Draft 5 OL in a single draft. Name *one* team that did that, let alone a team that did that and succeeded.

Yeah I used a bunch of high picks on 4 really good prospects. 2 top ten guards 2 top ten tackles and arguably the 2ed best center in the draft. How on earth is that a bad thing? Yes we have one really solid OL guy in cosmi everyone else is avargenor below we need an infusion of talent and the position and competition. As for the comment about let's get online on the open market online men good ones don't often make it to the open market. Also I didn't neglect the other positions I drafted some defensive help. A huge TE, an underrated WR form a very good team and a huge athletic QB with a cannon for an arm.

You acknowledge that we have a strong starting OL in Cosmi, but draft 2 guards? We also had the 2nd best center from last draft, are we just ignoring him? Leno isn't amazing but he's serviceable. And while tackles don't make it to the open market, we need G more than T anyway.

You don't even look at non OL until round 4? And then you go linebacker? And the vast majority of late round QBs fail. The vast majority of late round players in general fail. You are not addressing a position group if you're not touching it until the late rounds.

gambitx777 · Post #246 » by **gambitx777** » Sun Dec 24, 2023 8:46 am

Silvie Lysandra wrote:
gambitx777 wrote:So I'll address a few of these.

#1. Sam Howell.
He has a terrific arm. He's smart. He has play making ability. Yes he has some issues. He needs to ball manage better. most of his issues are fixable and he has put up decent number and deserves to be in conversation for a starting job.

He's put up good volume numbers on terrible efficiency. Can his issues improve? Yes. But again, the statistical reality is that 5th round QBs generally *don't* pan out as top 10 starters. Why? Because the NFL *generally* identifies flaws that drastically lower their ceiling. For every Tom Brady, there are 30 John Becks. For every Brock Purdy, there are 30 Nate Stanleys. Now, with that said, he's shown enough that it'd be worth giving him another shot *if* we weren't in position to draft a high end talent at QB.

#2. The boomer football mind set comment.
So in my mock I drafted 5 OL man. That isn't boomer football. That's just foot ball. Menshew and Joe flaco were mentioned well they have pretty good ols and they are about to both be in the play offs. Boomer football has nothing to do with being good in the trenches because that is still super valuable to this day.

Boomer football isn't wanting to build up the OL. Boomer football is throwing all your resources at the OL thinking you're going to recreate the Hogs, and every other position will take care of itself.

Yeah, Minshew and Flacco are going to sneak into the playoffs and be first round exits in all likelihood after they lose to the franchise QBs. Meanwhile Stafford might carry a gutted Rams team back to the playoffs.

Now, take a look at where those OLs were drafted. Lots of 3rd and 4th rounders. That's another thing I don't get - the idea that you can't build the OL while investing draft capital on a QB. Teams do it all the time. Apparently we can't. You mention Minshew, but ignore they *also* took a QB top 4.

You know what teams don't do? Draft 5 OL in a single draft. Name *one* team that did that, let alone a team that did that and succeeded.

Yeah I used a bunch of high picks on 4 really good prospects. 2 top ten guards 2 top ten tackles and arguably the 2ed best center in the draft. How on earth is that a bad thing? Yes we have one really solid OL guy in cosmi everyone else is avargenor below we need an infusion of talent and the position and competition. As for the comment about let's get online on the open market online men good ones don't often make it to the open market. Also I didn't neglect the other positions I drafted some defensive help. A huge TE, an underrated WR form a very good team and a huge athletic QB with a cannon for an arm.

You acknowledge that we have a strong starting OL in Cosmi, but draft 2 guards? We also had the 2nd best center from last draft, are we just ignoring him? Leno isn't amazing but he's serviceable. And while tackles don't make it to the open market, we need G more than T anyway.

You don't even look at non OL until round 4? And then you go linebacker? And the vast majority of late round QBs fail. The vast majority of late round players in general fail. You are not addressing a position group if you're not touching it until the late rounds.

Sam Howell has probably in a lot of ways out played his draft position by a mile. He deserves some time to develop you're under no pressure to win now. Sam Howell is a contraction to your argument. Sam Howell has a really good case to being called the best QB taken that year. He's better than everyone else, and there is a strong argument that he's better than purdey. Some would argue brocks winning would negate that but if you switch Brock and Sam those teams are probably in the same spots. So this slander against Howell this elitest view that high pick QBs are the way to go are equally silly. How can you hold that view and just act like it's a sure think a high pick will be better when Sam's better than every pick taken before him.

I'm not saying QB isn't an important position and that you should always not matter what draft that over a QB. I'm saying this year right now. Don't do it. I don't like Williams at all he has bust all over him Maye and Daniels els are sus to me too. I like Daniels but not at 4. Maybe I could talk my self into Maye eventually but I'd have to see him at the combine. Nixx and Penix are ok but I don't like them as early second last firsts I like them in the 3ed somewhere. Jordan Travis I like at the 5th. Milton, gunner Watson and emory Jones I like as 7th rounder and un drafted dudes. All but the 7th rounders will definitely go before where I would take them.

Next year has some interesting guys in it too. Maybe more than this draft.

I watch film, I study stats. I don't just go ooooooo 5 line man. I really like these guys. I like the athletic ability I like the size, I like the hands, the agility. Same with each guy I looked at. Rice is extremely underrated! And like I said with Milton. Dudes athletic as hell and has a **** cannon for an arm.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

Silvie Lysandra · Post #247 » by **Silvie Lysandra** » Sun Dec 24, 2023 3:20 pm

gambitx777 wrote:Sam Howell has probably in a lot of ways out played his draft position by a mile. He deserves some time to develop you're under no pressure to win now. Sam Howell is a contraction to your argument. Sam Howell has a really good case to being called the best QB taken that year. He's better than everyone else, and there is a strong argument that he's better than purdy.

I agree that Howell has significantly outplayed his draft position, and was definitely QB1 in that class. the problem is that class was awful. One of the worst in recent memory.

You know who Howell reminds me a lot of? Rex Grossman. I think Howell was underrated because he got caught in the weakness of the overall class, but Rex Grossman was a low 1st and he ended up being a journeyman who got carried to a Super Bowl appearance. A lot of the same traits, though Howell has a bigger arm - but Grossman was kind of a guy who struggled to see the field, didnt process amazing, often just chucked it deep.

Some would argue brocks winning would negate that but if you switch Brock and Sam those teams are probably in the same spots. So this slander against Howell this elitest view that high pick QBs are the way to go are equally silly. How can you hold that view and just act like it's a sure think a high pick will be better when Sam's better than every pick taken before him.

It's not elitism. It's just statistics. Statistically, the high pick QBs are better when you account for sample size.

I'm not saying QB isn't an important position and that you should always not matter what draft that over a QB. I'm saying this year right now. Don't do it. I don't like Williams at all he has bust all over him Maye and Daniels els are sus to me too.

You can talk yourself out of any and every top QB prospect not named Luck or Lawrence in the last 10 years. But eventually you have to swing on elite QB talent. It may not pan out! You might draft a bust with a top 5 pick! And the bust rate for QB is somewhat higher than at other positions (because the position is so important that people take swings on guys that have elite traits even if they have big negatives). But the position is too important, and its a better bet than hoping your scratchoff ticket wins.

I like Daniels but not at 4. Maybe I could talk my self into Maye eventually but I'd have to see him at the combine. Nixx and Penix are ok but I don't like them as early second last firsts I like them in the 3ed somewhere. Jordan Travis I like at the 5th. Milton, gunner Watson and emory Jones I like as 7th rounder and un drafted dudes. All but the 7th rounders will definitely go before where I would take them.

The thing is that the NFL has the opposite view. Maye and Williams are going 1 and 2, because they're elite prospects at the most important position, with consistent production against elite FCS competition. It's not like Zach Wilson where he was going against mid major and below schools in a Covid altered year.

And again, if we were picking at 9 and we were having to choose between Nix and McCarthy, I'd definitely accept that we're not getting a QB this year, pick Bowers, go OL with our 2nds, and hope Sam fixes his issues. But you rarely get a chance to get a top QB talent at 4 and you have to make the most of it.

Next year has some interesting guys in it too. Maybe more than this draft.

The consensus is that next year's draft is going to be absolutely terrible at QB, unless some of the 2nd round guys go back to school.

I watch film, I study stats. I don't just go ooooooo 5 line man. I really like these guys. I like the athletic ability I like the size, I like the hands, the agility. Same with each guy I looked at. Rice is extremely underrated! And like I said with Milton. Dudes athletic as hell and has a **** cannon for an arm.

Yes, but we have to consider positional value. In the modern NFL, it's QB >> WR => LT > CB >= EDGE. Taking Fashanu or Alt is justifiable if you really, really believe in Sam - LT has the positional value to justify a top 5 draft pick. Taking 5 OL, 3 of them being interior? And not even planning to spend a single FA dollar? Are we sure Mims is a legit starting LT prospect? He seems more like a RT to me.

Post #248 » by **LyricalRico** » Sun Dec 24, 2023 5:58 pm

Silvie Lysandra wrote:He leads the league in dropbacks as well. His yards per attempt, especially adjusting for the sacks, is really bad. Leads the league in INTs as well, and again, the QB is responsible for a lot of sacks. Taking sacks was a problem in college. It's good that the offense was looking decent on that level of volume, but the last 4 weeks have shown that maybe this is a mirage. Many, many late round QBs look like steals for a few games, then defenses get more tape on them and the things that made them drop so many rounds are exposed.

Great points here, especially the part about what happens when the tape library gets big enough for other teams to see everything. Sam's a "gamer", no doubt, and the big early numbers were fun. But I can't argue with low overall efficiency for an entire season, especially if you take away the two big games against a known-to-be-bad Eagles secondary. It's like a volume scorer in the NBA - great PPG but they never go anywhere. I'm not exactly saying he's the Corey Maggette/Ricky Davis of QBs lol, but when I look at him I don't see a guy you pass on an elite QB prospect for.

TGW · Post #249 » by **TGW** » Sun Dec 24, 2023 9:47 pm

Yea Howell definitely isn't the guy unfortunately. I'm not opposed to him starting next season while a rook develops, but he's not the answer at the position. Team looked miles better with Brissett in there.

Ron almost messed up the tank today.

Silvie Lysandra · Post #250 » by **Silvie Lysandra** » Sun Dec 24, 2023 9:57 pm

TGW wrote:Yea Howell definitely isn't the guy unfortunately. I'm not opposed to him starting next season while a rook develops, but he's not the answer at the position. Team looked miles better with Brissett in there.

Ron almost messed up the tank today.

Nah I think he's done contending for any type of starting role for the forseeable future. If you want a bridge starter to your rookie QB, why not just keep Brissett?

I'd try to trade him to a sucker who thinks he's fixable, resign Brissett, and draft the best QB on the board call it a day.

TGW · Post #251 » by **TGW** » Sun Dec 24, 2023 10:01 pm

Silvie Lysandra wrote:
TGW wrote:Yea Howell definitely isn't the guy unfortunately. I'm not opposed to him starting next season while a rook develops, but he's not the answer at the position. Team looked miles better with Brissett in there.

Ron almost messed up the tank today.

Nah I think he's done contending for any type of starting role for the forseeable future. If you want a bridge starter to your rookie QB, why not just keep Brissett?

I'd try to trade him to a sucker who thinks he's fixable, resign Brissett, and draft the best QB on the board call it a day.

My thinking is that no one is going to give anything of value for Howell now after the past few weeks. Maybe under a new coach, he looks halfway decent and regains some trade value. Best case scenario, you have Howell playing well and raising his trade value while your franchise QB sits, worst case is what you have now.

Post #252 » by **LyricalRico** » Sun Dec 24, 2023 11:51 pm

TGW wrote:
Silvie Lysandra wrote:
TGW wrote:Yea Howell definitely isn't the guy unfortunately. I'm not opposed to him starting next season while a rook develops, but he's not the answer at the position. Team looked miles better with Brissett in there.

Ron almost messed up the tank today.

Nah I think he's done contending for any type of starting role for the forseeable future. If you want a bridge starter to your rookie QB, why not just keep Brissett?

I'd try to trade him to a sucker who thinks he's fixable, resign Brissett, and draft the best QB on the board call it a day.

My thinking is that no one is going to give anything of value for Howell now after the past few weeks. Maybe under a new coach, he looks halfway decent and regains some trade value. Best case scenario, you have Howell playing well and raising his trade value while your franchise QB sits, worst case is what you have now.

Given how important backup QBs have been for teams currently in the playoff hunt this year, I'd be confident in mid-round pick level interest. Maybe the bidding goes even higher if QB-hungry teams picking later get desperate (maybe Raiders, Steelers, or Falcons).

Successfully tanking for a top prospect, keeping Brissett as a mentor, and getting something like a 4th for Howell are things a competent organization should be able to pull off. I know it'll be the new group's first offseason, but let's see.

gambitx777 · Post #253 » by **gambitx777** » Mon Dec 25, 2023 1:42 am

I feel for same Howell. I really do, half the fans turned on him, river boat Ron killed his confidence, EB isn't doing him any favors. The kids snow balling. I still believe he has talent enough to be a winning starter on a good team. Look at baker Mayfield right now, people gave up on him. People forget Kurt Warner played his way out of the league and to Canada before be came back and became an all time great. The kid deserves another opportunity. But, he needs to stow up and prove it. He's gonna have to work hard this off-season.

That being said, I'm still not gonna flip flop on my stance. I still don't believe this is the year to just take a QB top 3-4. I still think the right call is to trade back and get a kings ransom for MHJ. To me drake Maye is probably the one who's gonna be the guy out of all the QB that's gonna make it. He's big he's got a good arm. Williams has bust all over him. Daniels is good but size is a big issue I don't like him at 4 he's 6'4 but like 205. If you trade back get a boat load of picks not and the next couple of years and you shoot at a QB mid round either Daniels falls or you take a shot at Nixx or Penix. I can live with that even if I'm not a huge fan of it.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

Benjammin · Post #254 » by **Benjammin** » Mon Dec 25, 2023 4:34 am

If the Cardinals can win one more and the Commanders lose their last two they could make it up to the #2 pick.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Silvie Lysandra · Post #255 » by **Silvie Lysandra** » Mon Dec 25, 2023 4:52 am

gambitx777 wrote:I feel for same Howell. I really do, half the fans turned on him, river boat Ron killed his confidence, EB isn't doing him any favors. The kids snow balling. I still believe he has talent enough to be a winning starter on a good team. Look at baker Mayfield right now, people gave up on him. People forget Kurt Warner played his way out of the league and to Canada before be came back and became an all time great. The kid deserves another opportunity. But, he needs to stow up and prove it. He's gonna have to work hard this off-season.

Baker Mayfield was 1.01. Huge difference. The Browns definitely gave up on him too early, but Sam hasn't shown a fraction of what Baker Mayfield showed. How many Kurt Warners are there? Your problem is that you refuse to look at it from a statistical perspective, and are invested in the *story* of how this 5th round castoff can turn it around and become a star QB if someone just gives him help. The reality is that in most cases, the 5th round guy becomes a backup. Sometimes the NFL misses evals, and sometimes guys become entirely different players in the NFL. But you can't bank on that. You might lose money investing in a blue chip stock, but you will almost certainly lose money investing in a penny stock.

I still don't believe this is the year to just take a QB top 3-4.

It's just stubbornness at this point.

I still think the right call is to trade back and get a kings ransom for MHJ.

Trading back is a good call if you don't need a quarterback. Again, the stats show that while the bust rate is relatively high for QB, the upside is much greater. QB is such an overwhelmingly impactful position that it warps normal risk assessment, because you need a QB to compete. Imagine if the NBA forced you to pick a player on your team that you had to make as heliocentric as Luka or prime LeBron? That's QB.

There's a subset of fans that hate drafting QB if there's someone on the roster who's young and has even a few decent reps, because the downside risk is so high, but:

QB is too important:
Elite QBs cluster at the top of the draft:
Not having an elite QB is a massive opportunity cost.

And there are *just* enough late round QBs that hit that fans can talk themselves into accepting years of mediocrity until you *finally* win the scratcher. Never mind that we've had good OLs for decades, and had Pro Bowl to HoF LT play in particular. But we never solved QB, outside of the 1 RGIII year and the 3 Kirk Cousins years and like 1 Mark Brunell year, so we've sucked.

This is exactly how Tommy Sheppard drafted for the Wizards. Safe, low upside picks that were likely to be contributors, but unlikely to be stars.

long suffrin' boulez fan · Post #256 » by **long suffrin' boulez fan** » Mon Dec 25, 2023 5:57 am

Loving your posts Sylvie.

Which QB would you pick?

Who's your second and third choice?

gambitx777 · Post #257 » by **gambitx777** » Mon Dec 25, 2023 8:23 am

Silvie Lysandra wrote:
gambitx777 wrote:I feel for same Howell. I really do, half the fans turned on him, river boat Ron killed his confidence, EB isn't doing him any favors. The kids snow balling. I still believe he has talent enough to be a winning starter on a good team. Look at baker Mayfield right now, people gave up on him. People forget Kurt Warner played his way out of the league and to Canada before be came back and became an all time great. The kid deserves another opportunity. But, he needs to stow up and prove it. He's gonna have to work hard this off-season.

Baker Mayfield was 1.01. Huge difference. The Browns definitely gave up on him too early, but Sam hasn't shown a fraction of what Baker Mayfield showed. How many Kurt Warners are there? Your problem is that you refuse to look at it from a statistical perspective, and are invested in the *story* of how this 5th round castoff can turn it around and become a star QB if someone just gives him help. The reality is that in most cases, the 5th round guy becomes a backup. Sometimes the NFL misses evals, and sometimes guys become entirely different players in the NFL. But you can't bank on that. You might lose money investing in a blue chip stock, but you will almost certainly lose money investing in a penny stock.

I still don't believe this is the year to just take a QB top 3-4.

It's just stubbornness at this point.

I still think the right call is to trade back and get a kings ransom for MHJ.

Trading back is a good call if you don't need a quarterback. Again, the stats show that while the bust rate is relatively high for QB, the upside is much greater. QB is such an overwhelmingly impactful position that it warps normal risk assessment, because you need a QB to compete. Imagine if the NBA forced you to pick a player on your team that you had to make as heliocentric as Luka or prime LeBron? That's QB.

There's a subset of fans that hate drafting QB if there's someone on the roster who's young and has even a few decent reps, because the downside risk is so high, but:

QB is too important:
Elite QBs cluster at the top of the draft:
Not having an elite QB is a massive opportunity cost.

And there are *just* enough late round QBs that hit that fans can talk themselves into accepting years of mediocrity until you *finally* win the scratcher. Never mind that we've had good OLs for decades, and had Pro Bowl to HoF LT play in particular. But we never solved QB, outside of the 1 RGIII year and the 3 Kirk Cousins years and like 1 Mark Brunell year, so we've sucked.

This is exactly how Tommy Sheppard drafted for the Wizards. Safe, low upside picks that were likely to be contributors, but unlikely to be stars.

It's not stubborness is the football philosophy I was raised on. I'm not saying never take a guy there. But this year I'm sticking to much guns and saying naw. I also think people are really quick to ignore Sam for what he is. A 5th round pick that you hit on. He's out performing his draft position and is the best QB taken in that draft. Now again that's a really good value pick. I believe that seeing hf he could develop is a smart choice. I've watched Sam since college and I was right that he'd be the best QB in that draft.

So leaving the same Howell conversation behind for a sec id gladly talk about this years QB s with you .

I think drake maye will be decent. If we had the #1 pic he's be my bet if we didn't trade back.

Not Daniels I like just not as much we can trade back a bit and get him that be dope.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

gambitx777 · Post #258 » by **gambitx777** » Mon Dec 25, 2023 8:30 am

Second run at a mock draft.

Read on Twitter

?t=pOoQgQ8S1mpK_JZ0iosAWw&s=19

Tried to find a happy medium between the tead back crew and the we need a new QB now crew.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

PaulinVA · Post #259 » by **PaulinVA** » Mon Dec 25, 2023 9:19 pm

Not to talk counter the above excellent conversation, but the Chiefs just got embarrassed by the Raiders. Their mobile HoF QB was running for his life on EVERY pass play.

I agree you need an excellent QB, but he'll be neutralized by a terrible/hurt O-line.

I can't wait to see what our new GM does.

long suffrin' boulez fan · Post #260 » by **long suffrin' boulez fan** » Tue Dec 26, 2023 3:19 am

If things stay as they are, we’ll likely have a shot at one of Harrison, Maye, Fashanu or Daniels.

Who would you all grab?