Post#39 » by 3pt_chucker » Wed Jan 31, 2024 3:47 am
To me, there is a greater than 50% chance Lauri gets traded/asks out in the offseason. Here's why:
In the offseason, Lauri will have 1yr left on his deal and is entering into his prime contract years (27 in May). He's going to want a max contract (5 years) and near max money(>35M per). It will also be the first time he can truly choose where he plays next, since Chicago basically gave up on him and Cleveland got him on, at the time, a cheap contract for a player with upside.
Now that Lauri has established himself as a borderline all-star and max type player, he can either a) want to be in a situation where he's on a really good team and has a real chance to win or b) be the 1A/1B on a decent young team but ultimately no real chance to win, at least in the short term (next 2-3 years).
I say this because Utah does not seem serious about winning. Hell, there have already been reports Lauri might even be available but only for a crazy over pay. Nothing about adding a star next to Lauri for the future. Compare this to how the Nets are treating Bridges. Nets are constantly saying they want to build around Bridges (don't own their own picks unlike Utah) and aren't even interested in offers. Also, keep in mind Utah didn't trade for Lauri. He was a throw in on a Mitchell trade as a good young player with upside but not a right now all-star. The intention was to reset from Mitchell and Gobert and gradually build up the team into a contender eventually (5yrs if lucky). This is not similar as Shai on OKC since Shai broke out in his age 23 season, which allows Thunder to be patient and not make major moves until time is right. This is closer to a Pascal Siakam situation.
So it basically all boils down to this: Next season Lauri will enter his age 28 season and then will be free agent and will command max contract, entering his age 28-29 season. Does Utah feel pressure to capitalize on an all-star in his prime? Will they trade assets to get a another star/high quality player(s) next to Lauri or do they want to stay patient and wait for the right move in FA or tank by trading vets to get another lottery pick?
Obviously Lauri will be attached to Utah for obvious reasons and will want to stay with the Jazz. However if he wants to win, I'm sure he will be asking Ainge and co, if the plan going forward is to upgrade the roster for win now talent. If the answer is yes and Jazz make concrete moves, then I'm sure he'll be happy. If not, then why would he want to stay with the Jazz when he can get the same money elsewhere and compete for real. No way the Jazz will want to lose him for nothing or even leave it till the deadline and sell low on Lauri, similar to what happened with Siakam. Jazz can sell him to highest bidder and have a treasure trove of assets to fully rebuild.
If the latter happens, then teams like GSW, Sixers, Nets, Lakers, Knicks, Miami, Kings, OKC, Mavericks, Pelicans would all be interested at the very least. If Lauri works with Ainge like Mitchell did, then Utah could easily get a really good young player(s) and/or multiple unprotected FRPs. I can't see Ainge turning down the chance to fleece somebody. Ironically, Mitchell might complicate things a little, as some of those teams rather use all their assets on him than Lauri and may wait for a clear picture on that first.
Tldr: Lauri is entering his prime (27 at the end of this season) and if he wants to be in a win now-ish situation, then Utah will well sell high in the summer when more teams will have enough assets to make it a bidding war for Lauri.