Jabari Smith Jr. - Auburn

EvanZ · Post #801 » by **EvanZ** » Wed Nov 8, 2023 6:08 pm

Steph was not considered the best player in the 2009 draft until maybe 2015? 2016? Jrue is probably now considered the third best player in that class. It took a decade or more for him to surpass Blake.

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JMAC3 · Post #802 » by **JMAC3** » Wed Nov 8, 2023 11:10 pm

EvanZ wrote:Steph was not considered the best player in the 2009 draft until maybe 2015? 2016? Jrue is probably now considered the third best player in that class. It took a decade or more for him to surpass Blake.

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Steph had shown significantly more in his rookie year than Jabari. I just don't even see how Jabari becomes a star, he just has so little on the ball skills and Rockets already have 3-4 guys that will be ahead of him in the pecking order to take on a larger role.

Colbinii · Post #803 » by **Colbinii** » Thu Nov 9, 2023 4:23 pm

EvanZ wrote:Steph was not considered the best player in the 2009 draft until maybe 2015? 2016? Jrue is probably now considered the third best player in that class. It took a decade or more for him to surpass Blake.

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Nah.

I think Curry was pretty clearly better than Blake as early as 2013. The reason it wasn't widely acknowledge is because the majority of people were stuck in the "Hur, shooting can't win championships" and we were just starting the 3P revolution.

Looking back, Curry seems better in 2013 and 2014 and it isn't really close.

But yeah, hindsight is 20-20 and you did say "not considered".

What's interesting is Griffin still crushes Jrue in WS and VORP [BPM/Time] yet has 18% less minutes.

EvanZ · Post #804 » by **EvanZ** » Thu Nov 9, 2023 5:10 pm

Colbinii wrote:
EvanZ wrote:Steph was not considered the best player in the 2009 draft until maybe 2015? 2016? Jrue is probably now considered the third best player in that class. It took a decade or more for him to surpass Blake.

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Nah.

I think Curry was pretty clearly better than Blake as early as 2013. The reason it wasn't widely acknowledge is because the majority of people were stuck in the "Hur, shooting can't win championships" and we were just starting the 3P revolution.

Looking back, Curry seems better in 2013 and 2014 and it isn't really close.

But yeah, hindsight is 20-20 and you did say "not considered".

What's interesting is Griffin still crushes Jrue in WS and VORP [BPM/Time] yet has 18% less minutes.

You can go in any draft class and almost all of them take years and years to truly solidify. I'd say it's really not until near the end of those second contracts that you really can rank classes accurately from 1-10 or so.

Colbinii · Post #805 » by **Colbinii** » Thu Nov 9, 2023 5:12 pm

EvanZ wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
EvanZ wrote:Steph was not considered the best player in the 2009 draft until maybe 2015? 2016? Jrue is probably now considered the third best player in that class. It took a decade or more for him to surpass Blake.

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Nah.

I think Curry was pretty clearly better than Blake as early as 2013. The reason it wasn't widely acknowledge is because the majority of people were stuck in the "Hur, shooting can't win championships" and we were just starting the 3P revolution.

Looking back, Curry seems better in 2013 and 2014 and it isn't really close.

But yeah, hindsight is 20-20 and you did say "not considered".

What's interesting is Griffin still crushes Jrue in WS and VORP [BPM/Time] yet has 18% less minutes.

You can go in any draft class and almost all of them take years and years to truly solidify. I'd say it's really not until near the end of those second contracts that you really can rank classes accurately from 1-10 or so.

I agree. I commented in either the 2021 or 2022 WInners/Losers class after this last draft about how dumb it is.

Look at Giddey--he looks like he has regressed and his lack of defense/shooting will prevent him from ever being a high-end starter. Yet, if you posted after last season, his trajectory looked great.

Same for Mobley. Mobley's best-case-outcome is looking like Bam Adebayo now when his rookie year there were glimpses of KG/Duncan in terms of potential ceiling.

EvanZ · Post #806 » by **EvanZ** » Thu Nov 9, 2023 5:24 pm

Colbinii wrote:
EvanZ wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
Nah.

I think Curry was pretty clearly better than Blake as early as 2013. The reason it wasn't widely acknowledge is because the majority of people were stuck in the "Hur, shooting can't win championships" and we were just starting the 3P revolution.

Looking back, Curry seems better in 2013 and 2014 and it isn't really close.

But yeah, hindsight is 20-20 and you did say "not considered".

What's interesting is Griffin still crushes Jrue in WS and VORP [BPM/Time] yet has 18% less minutes.

You can go in any draft class and almost all of them take years and years to truly solidify. I'd say it's really not until near the end of those second contracts that you really can rank classes accurately from 1-10 or so.

I agree. I commented in either the 2021 or 2022 WInners/Losers class after this last draft about how dumb it is.

Look at Giddey--he looks like he has regressed and his lack of defense/shooting will prevent him from ever being a high-end starter. Yet, if you posted after last season, his trajectory looked great.

Same for Mobley. Mobley's best-case-outcome is looking like Bam Adebayo now when his rookie year there were glimpses of KG/Duncan in terms of potential ceiling.

I never got the hype for Giddey. If you go find my comments on him I pointed out the shooting numerous times. I don't believe in it. And he's overrated.

clyde21 · Post #807 » by **clyde21** » Mon Dec 25, 2023 6:03 am

last 3 games averaging 28/11 with 2 blks per

shooting almost 50/40/80 on the year so far, with a +12 Net Rating. He and Alpy are developing beautifully for the Rockets...Jalen Green not so much

that said, in a 2022 redraft its getting really hard to imagine Chet isn't the walkaway #1 pick at this point. just a complete freak defensively.

Colbinii · Post #808 » by **Colbinii** » Mon Dec 25, 2023 3:14 pm

clyde21 wrote:last 3 games averaging 28/11 with 2 blks per

shooting almost 50/40/80 on the year so far, with a +12 Net Rating. He and Alpy are developing beautifully for the Rockets...Jalen Green not so much

that said, in a 2022 redraft its getting really hard to imagine Chet isn't the walkaway #1 pick at this point. just a complete freak defensively.

Yeah 2022 looks nice. Both Jabari and Murray look like high-end starters to all-star.

Colbinii · Post #809 » by **Colbinii** » Mon Dec 25, 2023 3:14 pm

EvanZ wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
EvanZ wrote:
You can go in any draft class and almost all of them take years and years to truly solidify. I'd say it's really not until near the end of those second contracts that you really can rank classes accurately from 1-10 or so.

I agree. I commented in either the 2021 or 2022 WInners/Losers class after this last draft about how dumb it is.

Look at Giddey--he looks like he has regressed and his lack of defense/shooting will prevent him from ever being a high-end starter. Yet, if you posted after last season, his trajectory looked great.

Same for Mobley. Mobley's best-case-outcome is looking like Bam Adebayo now when his rookie year there were glimpses of KG/Duncan in terms of potential ceiling.

I never got the hype for Giddey. If you go find my comments on him I pointed out the shooting numerous times. I don't believe in it. And he's overrated.

Just saw this. I wasn't directing the comment at you.

I also saw a less athletic Rubio without the defense. Which is a very mediocre player.

clyde21 · Post #810 » by **clyde21** » Mon Dec 25, 2023 9:29 pm

Colbinii wrote:
clyde21 wrote:last 3 games averaging 28/11 with 2 blks per

shooting almost 50/40/80 on the year so far, with a +12 Net Rating. He and Alpy are developing beautifully for the Rockets...Jalen Green not so much

that said, in a 2022 redraft its getting really hard to imagine Chet isn't the walkaway #1 pick at this point. just a complete freak defensively.

Yeah 2022 looks nice. Both Jabari and Murray look like high-end starters to all-star.

it still looks very week to me after the big 3, which was the consensus view pre draft as well. the 4th best player Jalen Williams at this point.

Colbinii · Post #811 » by **Colbinii** » Mon Dec 25, 2023 10:18 pm

clyde21 wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
clyde21 wrote:last 3 games averaging 28/11 with 2 blks per

shooting almost 50/40/80 on the year so far, with a +12 Net Rating. He and Alpy are developing beautifully for the Rockets...Jalen Green not so much

that said, in a 2022 redraft its getting really hard to imagine Chet isn't the walkaway #1 pick at this point. just a complete freak defensively.

Yeah 2022 looks nice. Both Jabari and Murray look like high-end starters to all-star.

it still looks very week to me after the big 3, which was the consensus view pre draft as well. the 4th best player Jalen Williams at this point.

Huh...I think I have seen enough from some guys to move them up a bit.

I have about 5 guys who I could see as Top 50-ish players, another 5-6 as Top 100-ish and then ~7-8 who should be making above the minimum on their next contract [NBA Rotation Players].

Is that actually bad for a draft?

clyde21 · Post #812 » by **clyde21** » Mon Dec 25, 2023 10:34 pm

Colbinii wrote:
clyde21 wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
Yeah 2022 looks nice. Both Jabari and Murray look like high-end starters to all-star.

it still looks very week to me after the big 3, which was the consensus view pre draft as well. the 4th best player Jalen Williams at this point.

Huh...I think I have seen enough from some guys to move them up a bit.

I have about 5 guys who I could see as Top 50-ish players, another 5-6 as Top 100-ish and then ~7-8 who should be making above the minimum on their next contract [NBA Rotation Players].

Is that actually bad for a draft?

i think it's no different than what we thought so far - a Big 3 (Chet, Bari, Paolo) and whole lot of nothing. I don't think Keeg or Jalen Williams are that special and they are your #4 and #5 guys.

Keeg is like already 25 yrs old lol.

GreatWhiteStiff · Post #813 » by **GreatWhiteStiff** » Tue Dec 26, 2023 2:33 am

You really loved your Bari, if I recall clyde. Are you feeling any heat about him not being up to the Chet/Paolo tier? Is this Bol Bol all over again? Stay tuned folks...same bat time, same bat channel...

BTW 23 and 128 days lol.

Colbinii · Post #814 » by **Colbinii** » Tue Dec 26, 2023 4:18 am

GreatWhiteStiff wrote:You really loved your Bari, if I recall clyde. Are you feeling any heat about him not being up to the Chet/Paolo tier? Is this Bol Bol all over again? Stay tuned folks...same bat time, same bat channel...

BTW 23 and 128 days lol.

Why would this be Bol Bol?

clyde21 · Post #815 » by **clyde21** » Tue Dec 26, 2023 7:10 am

GreatWhiteStiff wrote:You really loved your Bari, if I recall clyde. Are you feeling any heat about him not being up to the Chet/Paolo tier? Is this Bol Bol all over again? Stay tuned folks...same bat time, same bat channel...

BTW 23 and 128 days lol.

im confused at what the question here is or what this has to do with Bol.

right now Chet is separating himself from both Bari and Paolo defensively. he's a true game changer defensively.

as for Bari vs. Paolo, how is Paolo separating himself? Bari is shooting better across the board, better On/Off, better Net Rating, better BPM and better TS%. only edge Paolo has over Smith are the assist numbers.

as for "fealing the heat"...lol? I had Bari #1, Paolo #2 and Chet #3...if Chet proves to be the best of the 3 great, wouldn't be shocking to me and wouldn't have been shocking to me if you told me that before the draft. my prospect valuation principles are still intact regardless.

---

as for Bol, he was a miss but again draft principles are draft principles. I had Chet top 3 for a lot of the same reasons I had Bol top 3 in his class. Bol just doesn't have NBA level bball IQ and is not as smooth athletically as Chet. it was a shot I thought was worth taking, some work out others don't. but it's super easy to for people that never post opinions or draft boards to hindsight like little weasels.

JMAC3 · Post #816 » by **JMAC3** » Tue Dec 26, 2023 4:24 pm

Paolo leading scorer on the 4th seed in the East.
Jabari 4th leading scorer on 8th seed in West.

Cherry picking stats to make it seem like a conversation at this point is doing too much.
If Jabari made the jump to Paolo, he probably would win most improved player, that is how far the gap is right now.

CptCrunch · Post #817 » by **CptCrunch** » Tue Dec 26, 2023 4:27 pm

Looks like Bari is a hit assuming he continues this play or better for the rest of his career. If he continues this current strech, I would have to admit that I underestimated his development speed.

Top 7 of the last draft are all quality NBA players.

Colbinii · Post #818 » by **Colbinii** » Tue Dec 26, 2023 5:46 pm

JMAC3 wrote:Paolo leading scorer on the 4th seed in the East.
Jabari 4th leading scorer on 8th seed in West.

Cherry picking stats to make it seem like a conversation at this point is doing too much.
If Jabari made the jump to Paolo, he probably would win most improved player, that is how far the gap is right now.

But Orlando isn't a good offensive team.

That's like saying Anthony Edwards is better offensively than Tyrese Haliburton since the Wolves are #1 out West and the Pacers are #8 out East.

Fun Fact: The magic have a 112 Ortg with Paolo and a 118 Ortg without him

His net on/off is -11, which is like saying the Orlando Magic are as good as the Pacers WITHOUT Paolo and as bad as the Spurs WITH Paolo.

Another way to look at it:

Houston is a defensive-1st team and Jabari is one of their best defenders.

Orlando is a defensive-1st team and Paolo is not one of their best defenders.

clyde21 · Post #819 » by **clyde21** » Tue Dec 26, 2023 6:16 pm

JMAC3 wrote:Paolo leading scorer on the 4th seed in the East.
Jabari 4th leading scorer on 8th seed in West.

Cherry picking stats to make it seem like a conversation at this point is doing too much.
If Jabari made the jump to Paolo, he probably would win most improved player, that is how far the gap is right now.

*lists every single relevant metric*

CHeRrY PiCKInG STaTs :lol:

Paolo is scoring more because he's shooting more, 6 more shots per game than Bari, that's pretty much it, Bari is a more efficient scorer across the board.

and Paolo has a negative net rating (-4) compared to Baris +12, and Paolo has a -11.3 On/Off, literally the second worse on his entire team. :lol:

JMAC3 · Post #820 » by **JMAC3** » Tue Dec 26, 2023 6:44 pm

Colbinii wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:Paolo leading scorer on the 4th seed in the East.
Jabari 4th leading scorer on 8th seed in West.

Cherry picking stats to make it seem like a conversation at this point is doing too much.
If Jabari made the jump to Paolo, he probably would win most improved player, that is how far the gap is right now.

But Orlando isn't a good offensive team.

That's like saying Anthony Edwards is better offensively than Tyrese Haliburton since the Wolves are #1 out West and the Pacers are #8 out East.

Fun Fact: The magic have a 112 Ortg with Paolo and a 118 Ortg without him

His net on/off is -11, which is like saying the Orlando Magic are as good as the Pacers WITHOUT Paolo and as bad as the Spurs WITH Paolo.

Another way to look at it:

Houston is a defensive-1st team and Jabari is one of their best defenders.

Orlando is a defensive-1st team and Paolo is not one of their best defenders.

No it would be like saying Anthony Edwards is a better offensive player than Obi Toppin if we are being honest.