The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[nate33]

I haven’t watched all of these yet, but this channel is my favorite for all of the little details/activity level with players. I’ve watched very little of Sarr, but I just see perimeter player that’s not naturally physical with questionable feel for the game.

For example: in his first year in the NBL, Xavier Cooks averaged 12 rebounds per36. 37 year old Aaron Baynes is averaging 12+ rebounds this year. Andrew Bogut put up 14.6 rebounds a couple of years ago. Why is a 7’1 center with a 7’5 wingspan putting up 8.9 rebounds? Ball and Giddey put up 9.0 and 8.3 rebounds respectively in the NBL while being a fair bit younger than Sarr. Isn't that strange?

Watch on YouTube

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These are some very interesting videos, thanks for posting.

I watched them and it has given me some reassurances about Sarr in some respects, but also some additional concerns. The good news is that Sarr isn't allergic to contact. He doesn't seem to have much problem at all boxing out and being physical, either with contesting shots or taking it hard to the rim. I'm no longer all that worried on that front. And he continues to have exceptional mobility, staying with guards on switches with ease. I also like his activity. He seems like he really cares about playing help defense. He has a good motor, which is often not the case with freakishly tall physical specimens.

The big concern is that he has bad hands. The reason why he doesn't rebound at an elite level is because he just can't catch and hold the ball. He gets his hands on a lot of rebounds but they just bounce off or get taken away by smaller players. He is also pretty bad at catching the ball as a rim runner. If the ball isn't placed well, he is going to fumble it. On the upside, Sarr might pan out to be a competent standstill shooter. I liked his free throw form and the fact that he usually made his 2nd free throw even if he often missed the first.

The hands issue makes me think of Haywood. Haywood was a great defender, but he was useless on offense because he couldn't catch the ball on the roll; and he was subpar rebounder for his size as well.

I have no idea to what degree bad hands can be improved.

[NatP4]

Credit to NatP4. I think Sheppard will be our pick. Nate's comps are spot on.

Edit - if we can sign Jones on a reasonable contract then I'd pass on Sheppard for someone else.

I seriously doubt the Wizards will take Sheppard with a top 5 pick. He doesn't fit their stated prototype of a guy who is long and athletic at his position.

I think the only way we get Sheppard is if Tyus is traded for a pretty decent FRP in the 2024 draft and Sheppard slips.

I’m 100% certain that Topic is the guy they want. Who knows if we have the opportunity to draft him, but that’s the Dawkins type player.

Dawkins/Presti NEVER take a bad player with bad production. They love international prospects, and love players that produce at a younger age vs rest of draft class.

[Hibachi_0]

Read on Twitter

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Topic back to Red Star. We'll see him in Euroleague

[doclinkin]

The hands issue makes me think of Haywood. Haywood was a great defender, but he was useless on offense because he couldn't catch the ball on the roll; and he was subpar rebounder for his size as well.

I have no idea to what degree bad hands can be improved.

To be fair to Haywood we also never had a good PG to set him up for success. Yes his rebounding was subpar, but Brendan's offensive efficiency was solid despite hands of stone. As for poor rebounding, if you have players with good hands playing on the front line a poor rebounder can improve their board work by volleyball tapping the bounce to their teammate. But that is part of why playing center is one of the tougher positions to learn. You need to be captain of the defense and know where your teammates are, know your schematic for force rules etc.

Personally I don't really care so much if the Center siphons all the rebounds so long as they force misses and deter interior attacks. If everyone around them is a proficient rebounder then we are good, since many of the shots they chase off will turn into long rebounds and fast breaks.

That said, while i like Sarr I do wonder if someone else would be willing to pay a premium in future picks to jump up and claim him. I still want Zach Edey in the middle, his standstill deterrent ability is significant. That's a player who does have good hands, finishing in traffic, rebounding everything in his area, and his area is larger than most. But he looks to be available lower down due to the bizarre familiarity prejudice. This year's Trayce Jackson Davis. Productive and ignored.

[nate33]

That said, while i like Sarr I do wonder if someone else would be willing to pay a premium in future picks to jump up and claim him. I still want Zach Edey in the middle, his standstill deterrent ability is significant. That's a player who does have good hands, finishing in traffic, rebounding everything in his area, and his area is larger than most. But he looks to be available lower down due to the bizarre familiarity prejudice. This year's Trayce Jackson Davis. Productive and ignored.

I'm thinking that the dynamics of the situation might actually work the other way. Most of the really bad teams already have a young prospect at center in place (Wemby, Duren, Ayton, JJJ, Kessler), which might motivate them into selecting another guy with their top pick. So Sarr might slip to 3, 4 or 5 even if many would consider him a top 1 or 2 prospect. So if we end up in the 4-5 range, drafting Sarr might be the best way to maximize the value of the pick.

If nothing else, if we end up at #1, and a team like Detroit or San Antonio is sitting at #4, they probably won't be all that motivated to sacrifice assets to move up and draft Sarr. If we engineer a trade-down, it'll have to be for a lower lotto pick.

[dobrojim]

I have never -- absolutely NEVER! -- seen a college guard with numbers like Reed Sheppard. Period.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/reed-sheppard

to your point - check out the green circles relative to the red circles.
It's clear Sheppard does a lot of things very well.

[gesa2]

That said, while i like Sarr I do wonder if someone else would be willing to pay a premium in future picks to jump up and claim him. I still want Zach Edey in the middle, his standstill deterrent ability is significant. That's a player who does have good hands, finishing in traffic, rebounding everything in his area, and his area is larger than most. But he looks to be available lower down due to the bizarre familiarity prejudice. This year's Trayce Jackson Davis. Productive and ignored.

I'm thinking that the dynamics of the situation might actually work the other way. Most of the really bad teams already have a young prospect at center in place (Wemby, Duren, Ayton, JJJ, Kessler), which might motivate them into selecting another guy with their top pick. So Sarr might slip to 3, 4 or 5 even if many would consider him a top 1 or 2 prospect. So if we end up in the 4-5 range, drafting Sarr might be the best way to maximize the value of the pick.

If nothing else, if we end up at #1, and a team like Detroit or San Antonio is sitting at #4, they probably won't be all that motivated to sacrifice assets to move up and draft Sarr. If we engineer a trade-down, it'll have to be for a lower lotto pick.

If they are #4 and don’t want to be “stuck” with Sarr, can’t we leverage that for some asset and then draft Sarr at 4-5?

[nate33]

That said, while i like Sarr I do wonder if someone else would be willing to pay a premium in future picks to jump up and claim him. I still want Zach Edey in the middle, his standstill deterrent ability is significant. That's a player who does have good hands, finishing in traffic, rebounding everything in his area, and his area is larger than most. But he looks to be available lower down due to the bizarre familiarity prejudice. This year's Trayce Jackson Davis. Productive and ignored.

I'm thinking that the dynamics of the situation might actually work the other way. Most of the really bad teams already have a young prospect at center in place (Wemby, Duren, Ayton, JJJ, Kessler), which might motivate them into selecting another guy with their top pick. So Sarr might slip to 3, 4 or 5 even if many would consider him a top 1 or 2 prospect. So if we end up in the 4-5 range, drafting Sarr might be the best way to maximize the value of the pick.

If nothing else, if we end up at #1, and a team like Detroit or San Antonio is sitting at #4, they probably won't be all that motivated to sacrifice assets to move up and draft Sarr. If we engineer a trade-down, it'll have to be for a lower lotto pick.

If they are #4 and don’t want to be “stuck” with Sarr, can’t we leverage that for some asset and then draft Sarr at 4-5?

If we have the #1 pick and they know we want Sarr at #1, and they don't want Sarr, why would they give up anything to move up to #1?

[penbeast0]

To get the guy they want without someone stepping in and stealing him . . . like the Fultz/Tatum trade. (hopefully in this scenario we are Boston)

[doclinkin]

You don't really hear his name much but a player I think will rise during workouts is G League Ignite forward Tyler Smith. Still growing, but currently 6'11" 226lbs now, with a 7'1" wingspan. Smooth athletic face-up forward (albeit with the suppressed rebounding numbers that carries). IS he the next Zay Todd? Maybe, hopefully he begins to exert his strength as he grows. Looks like he has the frame to build serious muscle if he puts in the work. Physically he looks like one of the more talented players in the draft. Curious why the buzz is subdued.

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=NBAGLeague

I think the Ignite is not a great team to develop players. Crammed with highly hyped prospects who want to showcase their game. Team play and fundamentals are not able to be emphasized, as in NCAA ball. There's no senior starters who can mentor a young hypertalent. The pressure of an empty court in Fort Wayne is not the same as the roar of a game at a top college program. I guess it trains you for playing a random Tuesday night in February in Detroit. I also get the sense the G League is not a great spot for Bigs to grow, where pass dependent players are relying on getting spoonfed by 2nd tier ballhandlers who want to pad their stats. Still Smith stacks up pretty well in comparison to other top prospects at the 4.

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?preset=top-pf

Funny, I guess it is damning to say he is looking like an unpolished Kyle Kuzma. But still, the upside is there, athleticism and positional length.

Haven't found my guy yet this draft. I do like a bunch of the upperclassmen though. The sort of players who would swiftly fit in on the Heat.

[NatP4]

The Ignite are so tough to evaluate this year. Absolute dumpster fire. Horribly coached team that plays disorganized selfish basketball. They have one of the worst defensive/rebounding teams in basketball history and everyone plays lost.

Tyler Smith reminds me of Taylor Hendricks from last year. Smooth athlete, smooth shooting ability, can block some shots in a flashy way, but not actually great at anything, poor defensive impact and rebounding. Too slow/lack of perimeter game/ball handling to be a wing, too soft inside to be a true 4/5.

There’s definitely talent there, just hard to evaluate him and Almansa in that mess.

[doclinkin]

Haven't found my guy yet this draft.

Other than Zach Edey that is.

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=NBCSports

He's now added a baby hook and a shot off the glass so he is as deadly outside of 10 feet as he is under the rim. He usually sets up one long stride away from the paint but even with double and triple teams he powers through and drops it in. He's so smooth now at passing out of the trap, then reposting when the defense chases it out.

Much of what he does in college he will be able to do in the NBA, especially with the better space available. I'm curious to see what team takes advantage of his skill set and simply runs and old school post-entry attack from the PG to the Big Man. Okay so he might be slower guarding the pick and roll outside. Don't bother. There's only 1 Jokic in the league. I'm fine even letting Embiid shoot from range. Put 4 tall wing players next to Zach who can pass and hit an outside shot. Switch everything outside and let him do the 2.9 second 2-step in the paint. Simple.

[NatP4]

Numbers at 18 years old with KK Mega in the ABA league:

Jokic: 16.4 points 9.2 rebounds 2.9 assists 1.1 steals 1.3 blocks 2.2 turnovers 57% TS

Jovic: 15.1 points 5.7 rebounds 4.5 assists 0.8 steals 0.5 blocks 3.5 turnovers 55% TS

Topic: 20.0 points 4.2 rebounds 7.1 assists 1.1 steals 0.1 blocks 3.1 turnovers 62.4% TS

Topic has been ridiculous in his last stretch of games, was just way too good to be in the ABA. Gut feeling is he continues to light it up even on a really bad team in Euroleague and the hype train explodes. Buzelis has the talent to be great, but Topic is the clear #1 in this class.

[nate33]

Haven't found my guy yet this draft.

Other than Zach Edey that is.

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=NBCSports

He's now added a baby hook and a shot off the glass so he is as deadly outside of 10 feet as he is under the rim. He usually sets up one long stride away from the paint but even with double and triple teams he powers through and drops it in. He's so smooth now at passing out of the trap, then reposting when the defense chases it out.

Much of what he does in college he will be able to do in the NBA, especially with the better space available. I'm curious to see what team takes advantage of his skill set and simply runs and old school post-entry attack from the PG to the Big Man. Okay so he might be slower guarding the pick and roll outside. Don't bother. There's only 1 Jokic in the league. I'm fine even letting Embiid shoot from range. Put 4 tall wing players next to Zach who can pass and hit an outside shot. Switch everything outside and let him do the 2.9 second 2-step in the paint. Simple.

What concerns me about Zach is that I don't think he'll be much of a rim protector even if you scheme your way out of committing him to pick-and-roll defense on the perimeter. He doesn't jump at all so I don't think he'll be an impediment at the rim in drop coverage like Brook Lopez, for example. At best, you'll get a guy who defends like Jokic - he'll stick his arms up to provide token deterrence, and then turn and make sure he grabs the defensive rebound.

The best NBA comp I can think of for Edey is Jonas Valanciunas. Like Zach, JV is a massive human being who is a total monster in the post but has poor mobility. Obviously, Zach is even bigger than JV, but also slower. JV is a guy who can dominate smaller centers who are basically just PF's masquerading as centers. But when JV has to go up against the 8 or so centers in this league who really matter, he gets destroyed.

Ultimately, I think Zach will be a guy who is useful in the regular season for his ability to overpower the second-rate centers on some teams, but he will be a liability in the playoffs when we face teams with real centers. Another possibility is that he'll be an interesting change-of-pace second unit offensive hub that could help win us some regular season games - a rich man's Boban (not an insult, Boban's per minute numbers are incredible). But I think he will be exploited once he goes up against a good team with a scouting report on him.

[doclinkin]

Watching Topić a little deeper.

Questions about his jumper and athleticism aside, there is no doubt he has the all-court awareness in his offensive game. Credit to the Serbian system that he is this good this early. The player he reminds me of is Jason Kidd. He's able to set up his teammates with delay and hesitation and misdirection, using his opponents reactions to screen for his own team. Sees the game in freezeframe. He'd be deadlier if he could finish on the interior or hit an open 3 with consistency but he does have the one thing that is really difficult to train, the intuitive understanding of the moment, and fractions of moments.

On offense. With the ball in his hands.

I don't see where that has translated to advanced defense yet, or his footspeed and reaction time is not quite next level enough to put it into effect. On offense he can be deliberate and slow and orchestrate the action, on defense its not up to you. I'm curious to see his progression, the BBIQ he shows is NBA calibre even as a teen. Does he have room to grow? If so its in outside shooting and defense.

[dobrojim]

[snip]

Haven't found my guy yet this draft. I do like a bunch of the upperclassmen though. The sort of players who would swiftly fit in on the Heat.

Bias against upperclassmen (or just older players) is a big reason TJD was the last pick in the draft as I saw it.
It certainly wasn't because his numbers didn't argue for a better draft position.

[nate33]

Watching Topić a little deeper.

Questions about his jumper and athleticism aside, there is no doubt he has the all-court awareness in his offensive game. Credit to the Serbian system that he is this good this early. The player he reminds me of is Jason Kidd. He's able to set up his teammates with delay and hesitation and misdirection, using his opponents reactions to screen for his own team. Sees the game in freezeframe. He'd be deadlier if he could finish on the interior or hit an open 3 with consistency but he does have the one thing that is really difficult to train, the intuitive understanding of the moment, and fractions of moments.

On offense. With the ball in his hands.

I don't see where that has translated to advanced defense yet, or his footspeed and reaction time is not quite next level enough to put it into effect. On offense he can be deliberate and slow and orchestrate the action, on defense its not up to you. I'm curious to see his progression, the BBIQ he shows is NBA calibre even as a teen. Does he have room to grow? If so its in outside shooting and defense.

Interesting comments about his defense. In a way, it reminds me of Luka. Luka is a poor defender with enough basketball IQ to make himself a serviceable defender and good defensive rebounder. Obviously, the big difference is size. Dallas has the luxury of putting Luka on the worst forward on the floor with no concerns that Luka will get physically overpowered. Topic isn't quite as big, but he might be big enough. At 6-6, he can guard the opposition's 3&D forward (the Caleb Martins, Grant Williams' and DeAndre Hunters of the league) where he shouldn't be too much of a liability. You wouldn't want him on a guy like Aaron Gordon or Rui Hachimura though.

[doclinkin]

What concerns me about Zach is that I don't think he'll be much of a rim protector even if you scheme your way out of committing him to pick-and-roll defense on the perimeter. He doesn't jump at all so I don't think he'll be an impediment at the rim in drop coverage like Brook Lopez, for example.

Hmm. You're watching a different Zach Edey than I am. To me one of the things that is notable about Edey is that while his wingspan is not jaw-droppingly impressive, most of his height is in his legs. Those legs though are naturally strong. He is not a mutant based on a pituitary tumor like so many of the super-bigs who make the league. He is a legit genetically tall athlete and has been his whole life.

This carries out in his relative mobility. He may look slow but he covers a ton of ground, fills up space. I think Brook is a good comparator in that both are tall players who use their size well and play the angles to take advantage of it. The fact that Edey is 80% calf and thigh means that when he sets a wide base he fills 2-3 driving lanes by himself. And yet, even when set in a stance he remains active. I see his hockey player training in that he is as comfortable moving backwards and laterally as he is moving forward. He often begins his defensive set just below the free throw line and floats easily in that space as the ball swings around the arc. When blown past though he tracks the ball and does in fact jump to block it. Most of his blocks are not from altitude and standing reach but from tracking down the ball and erasing it. He does so with a relative efficiency of effort though that looks like he is barely exerting himself. Check how much ground he covers though in doing so. It looks slow, but tell that to the wing whose feet are moving like jackrabbits while he methodically keeps pace. What I'm impressed with is that despite the fact that he does jump, he does not foul at all. Like at all. Less than 2 fouls a game while playing 30 minutes. Oh and the fact that he can play 30 minutes a game at that size is impressive as well. It bodes well for his health and stamina at the next level.

Watch on YouTube

I don't think his vulnerability will be against the other goliaths in the NBA. His strong base means that he won't be dislodged easily. They may neutralize his advantage on offense, but he will shave their %'s on the other side. I do think he will have some difficulty tracking ultraquick elite athletes who can finish through contact. Against Zion, Ant Edwards, LeBj, etc. he will foul out or struggle. But really, who doesn't?

[NatP4]

[snip]

Haven't found my guy yet this draft. I do like a bunch of the upperclassmen though. The sort of players who would swiftly fit in on the Heat.

Bias against upperclassmen (or just older players) is a big reason TJD was the last pick in the draft as I saw it.
It certainly wasn't because his numbers didn't argue for a better draft position.

Bias? Jackson-Davis turns 24 in a month. He’s a good pick for a team that needed a NBA-ready cheap role player for 4 years.

We are a rebuilding team and traded him for a lottery ticket prospect(who is absolutely terrible), but it sort of made sense for both teams.

In Podziemski, the warriors might’ve found a legit core piece for the future at 19th overall. Steal

[NatP4]

Watching Topić a little deeper.

Questions about his jumper and athleticism aside, there is no doubt he has the all-court awareness in his offensive game. Credit to the Serbian system that he is this good this early. The player he reminds me of is Jason Kidd. He's able to set up his teammates with delay and hesitation and misdirection, using his opponents reactions to screen for his own team. Sees the game in freezeframe. He'd be deadlier if he could finish on the interior or hit an open 3 with consistency but he does have the one thing that is really difficult to train, the intuitive understanding of the moment, and fractions of moments.

On offense. With the ball in his hands.

I don't see where that has translated to advanced defense yet, or his footspeed and reaction time is not quite next level enough to put it into effect. On offense he can be deliberate and slow and orchestrate the action, on defense its not up to you. I'm curious to see his progression, the BBIQ he shows is NBA calibre even as a teen. Does he have room to grow? If so its in outside shooting and defense.

Interesting comments about his defense. In a way, it reminds me of Luka. Luka is a poor defender with enough basketball IQ to make himself a serviceable defender and good defensive rebounder. Obviously, the big difference is size. Dallas has the luxury of putting Luka on the worst forward on the floor with no concerns that Luka will get physically overpowered. Topic isn't quite as big, but he might be big enough. At 6-6, he can guard the opposition's 3&D forward (the Caleb Martins, Grant Williams' and DeAndre Hunters of the league) where he shouldn't be too much of a liability. You wouldn't want him on a guy like Aaron Gordon or Rui Hachimura though.

Most of his games are on YouTube, including a few exhibition games against USC and some other stuff. I watched a fair amount of film, and he reminds me very much so of Luka on defense. He’s a solid athlete, very smart, conserves energy at times, plays hard at others. Very aware with his head on a swivel. He’s actually a very good athlete.

We’re talking about a dynamic offensive talent. This isn’t Josh Giddey who is more of a game managing PG. Topic is like a Jokic that actually plays PG. those guys conserve energy on D because you run the entire O through them on every possession.

Your assessment is exactly what I see in watching a few of the games.