RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Isiah Thomas)

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RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Isiah Thomas) 

Post#1 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Dec 28, 2023 5:56 pm

Our system is now as follows:

1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.

2. Nomination vote now works the same way.

3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.

4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):

Spoiler:
AEnigma
Ambrose
ceilng raiser
ceoofkobefans
Clyde Frazier
Colbinii
cupcakesnake
Doctor MJ
Dooley
DQuinn1575
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Dutchball97
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LA Bird
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Joao Saraiva
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Lou Fan
Moonbeam
Narigo
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Rishkar
rk2023
Samurai
ShaqAttac
Taj FTW
Tim Lehrbach
trelos6
trex_8063
ty 4191
WintaSoldier1
ZeppelinPage


Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):

Pau Gasol
Image

George Gervin
Image

Alonzo Mourning
Image

Willis Reed
Image

Isiah Thomas
Image

Nate Thurmond
Image

As requested, here's the current list so far along with the historical spreadsheet of previous projects:

Current List
Historical Spreadsheet
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/31/2023) 

Post#2 » by Clyde Frazier » Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:30 pm

Vote 1 - George Gervin
Vote 2 - Willis Reed

The Iceman
Even though Gervin's playoff success leaves something to be desired, he was still an impressive playoff performer, putting up the following from '75-'83 (65 games):

28.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 3 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 56% TS, 113 ORtg 

In '79, the spurs faced the defending champion bullets in the ECF, with a heartbreaking 2 pt game 7 loss. Gervin scored 42 pts in the game, including 24 in the 2nd half. The spurs and bullets ranked 1st and 2nd in SRS respectively that season.

In '82, the spurs made a mid season trade for talented scorer Mike Mitchell. He would only appear in 57 games for the spurs, and gervin still led the spurs to the 7th best SRS in the league. For context as owly mentioned, Ron brewer was pretty productive that season before being traded for Mitchell: https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/1982.html. They would fall to the eventual NBA champion lakers (4th in SRS) in the WCF.

In '83, the spurs (6th in SRS) would again fall to the lakers (3rd in SRS) in the WCF. Gervin and Mitchell both had solid performances in the post season that year, but simply weren't enough for a deep lakers roster that featured magic, kareem, nixon, wilkes, mcadoo and cooper.

Had gervin and gilmore had more time together during each other's primes, i'm sure both would have helped each other to further playoff success.

The Captain
On their way to the championship in 1970, Wllis helped the Knicks knock off two of the most dominant centers of all time in Wilt and Kareem. Undersized for a center at 6’9”, his brute strength and good defensive instincts were still able to deter them. He also had a great outside shot for a big man, which was very effective against Wilt in his later years. He would again get the best of Wilt in '73 when the Knicks took down the Lakers in the finals.

I don’t have a problem with questioning his 2 finals MVPs relative to Clyde’s level of play in those series. However, I don’t doubt that Reed was a player whose impact went beyond the box score, and I’d say that’s what voters were recognizing when selecting him as finals MVP in both seasons. This was best exemplified in the famous moment when reed came through the tunnel in game 7 of the '70 finals:



As the Lakers were warming up, they froze as they saw Willis coming onto the court (he had previously missed game 6 with a torn muscle in his thigh, and no one expected him to play). He hit his first 2 jumpers, and the rest was history. Dramatic narrative? Of course, but Clyde himself said they wouldn’t have had the confidence to go out there and perform like they did without their captain leading the way. When you have the talent to back it up as willis did, that makes a difference.

He was certainly deserving of winning regular season MVP in 1970, leading the Knicks to a 60-22 record and the #1 ranked SRS in the league. He put together season averages of 21.7 PPG, 13.9 RPG, 2 APG, 50.7 FG, 75.6% FT, 55.2% TS, +4.1 rTS.

From '69-'73, reed would anchor a Knicks defense that ranked in the top 3rd of the league for 4 seasons:

'69 - 4th
'70 - 1st
'71 - 2nd
'73 - 4th

The season after reed retired, the Knicks dropped to 11th (of 18) in DRtg. Yes, I'm aware there are other factors in the high DRtgs given the overall strength of the rosters, and this drop off the season he retired included other roster subtractions. Even still, his impact on that end of the floor was clear, as was the ability to lead a group of players to what’s often considered one of the best stretches of “team play” in NBA history.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/31/2023) 

Post#3 » by penbeast0 » Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:32 pm

Vote: George Gervin Mr. One Dimensional scorer but he was very good at that role.

Alt Vote: Nate Thurmond Far from sure of this one. Cowens had more team success but probably less individual impact. Same for Gasol; those 2 rings with Kobe made me struggle to reevaluate that whole team and I came out stronger on both Kobe and Gasol.


Nominate: Bobby Jones. More than a decade of straight 1st team All-Defense votes combined with high efficiency, though not high volume scoring, and good playmaking. Not a great rebounder for his position but could play 2-5 at either end. Probably the greatest glue guy in NBA history and in his time where he was the best player on his team (75 and 76 for example), his team was the best in the league both years though they came up short in the playoffs. The most 1st team All-Defense awards, best player on two Nugget teams that had the best record in the NBA (though both came up short in the playoffs), great efficiency without being just an inside scorer, excellent passer, decent offensive rebounder, defensively good at blocking out rather than getting the board, good shot blocker for a forward, good steals, could play up to the 5 or down to the 2, limited minutes because of a physical condition but probably the greatest glue guy in the history of the NBA.

Want to question if anyone is thinking of Rodman yet also? I prefer Bobby Jones (obviously), but with Draymond in, Rodman is probably better than Artest or the pure defensive guards like KC Jones in terms of guys to be thinking of who aren't rim protectors or scorers.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/31/2023) 

Post#4 » by penbeast0 » Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:37 pm

I think describing Willis Reed as "anchoring" the 73 Knicks defense that was 4th in the league might be a bit iffy. He was 6th on the team in both total minutes and minutes per game with Jerry Lucas getting more of both as the center. Even with that limitation, many of the minutes he played were at less than full effectiveness.

The rest of the starters were familiar, Frazier, Monroe, Bradley, DeBusschere. Reed was seen as the starter when healthy and did start most of the playoffs but that high regular season ranking is mainly due to Frazier and DeBusschere.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/31/2023) 

Post#5 » by Clyde Frazier » Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:12 pm

penbeast0 wrote:I think describing Willis Reed as "anchoring" the 73 Knicks defense that was 4th in the league might be a bit iffy. He was 6th on the team in both total minutes and minutes per game with Jerry Lucas getting more of both as the center. Even with that limitation, many of the minutes he played were at less than full effectiveness.

The rest of the starters were familiar, Frazier, Monroe, Bradley, DeBusschere. Reed was seen as the starter when healthy and did start most of the playoffs but that high regular season ranking is mainly due to Frazier and DeBusschere.


That's fine and I did mention the overall strength of the roster contributed to those high ratings. Availability is obviously an issue with Willis, otherwise he more than likely would've been voted in already.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/31/2023) 

Post#6 » by AEnigma » Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:46 pm

VOTE: Isiah Thomas
Alternate: George Gervin


Finally, the Cowens copy/paste is over. :lol:

This round for me is between Gervin and Isiah in some order. I have been repeating this for a while…
AEnigma wrote:Isiah’s passing gets overshadowed by Magic, but I think he has a strong argument as a top three on-ball creator of the 20th century. Captained consistently potent postseason offences, with something like an average +5 relative mark throughout his entire postseason prime.
… but while all that is true, I am not sure whether it a) gives Isiah a true peak advantage, or b) makes up for Isiah’s comparably short period of value (contrast with Cowens, where I very much felt his in-era peak and prime made up for the lesser longevity).

General sentiment here is Isiah has something of an achievement tiebreaker relative to Gervin, who never brought his team to the Finals and never even had a year where I could confidently call the Spurs top three in the league, without having a notable individual peak or prime in my estimate (contrast with Bob Lanier). That hurts Gervin here because I do not feel he was held back much by some woeful team (contrast again with Bob Lanier). I am not saying he was some individual disappointment — in his peak years he was providing 28 points per 75 possessions on ~+7 rTS — but I do think his archetype limited the heights to which he alone could elevate a team. He did not create much offence for others (contrast with Drexler or Pierce), nor was he some maestro of off-ball movement (contrast with Reggie or Ray). He was just a very good scorer.

If people want to sway my vote between those two, have at it.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/31/2023) 

Post#7 » by AEnigma » Thu Dec 28, 2023 7:47 pm

Top players on the board for me are Elvin Hayes, Dikembe Mutombo, Robert Parish, and Paul George. Looking past them, my next names are Unseld, Carter, and Billups.

Bobby Jones does not make my top hundred. I agree with Doc that he was never a true superstar the way we could at least argue was true of Manu, and after 1977 I think he stops being a true all-league player. Now, he could make up for that by just accruing sub-all-star value like Parish did… but he played far too few minutes to qualify in my eyes. I have him more on par with Dave DeBusschere — who is also probably not in my top hundred.

Rodman by contrast is in my top hundred. Playing a key role on five title teams, plus what I see as a reasonably impressive peak in 1992, gives him a safer floor there. However, I still tend to mark him below forwards like Rasheed, Marion, Nance, Cunninghan, Worthy, Wilkins, English… by this point Tatum…
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/31/2023) 

Post#8 » by LA Bird » Thu Dec 28, 2023 10:24 pm

Gervin over Thurmond seems like plain scoring bias to me. 4 scoring titles is great but if there was an annual title awarded for best man defender in the league, Thurmond would have won a lot more than 4. So why is Gervin's one dimensional scoring held in much higher regard than Thurmond's man defense? And if your answer is that offense is more important than defense in basketball, be my guest and look at any measure of overall two-way impact for these two players.

Thurmond wins in a clean sweep across all of ElGee's WOWY variations:
Prime WOWYR: 5.0 vs 2.1
Career WOWYR: 5.1 vs 3.3
Scaled WOWYR: 4.6 vs 1.9
Alt Scaled WOWYR: 4.5 vs 2.9
10year Scaled GPM: 4.7 vs 0.0

Thurmond is near MVP-level in Moonbeam's RWOWY whereas Gervin hovers around 60-70th percentile, one of the lowest marks of any all timer:

Image

Gervin was undeniably an incredible scorer but his impact on team success, at least from available data, is lacking. And that is concerning for a player who only won 3 playoff series their entire career. I know team success is dependent on teammate quality so if you aren't winning a lot, it's fine if there is some evidence of impact. But with Gervin we get neither the success nor the lift.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/31/2023) 

Post#9 » by AEnigma » Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:43 pm

Is getting Gervin for say ten prime postseasons better than getting Thurmond for say seven? Reasonable people can answer yes to that, but based on how I assess them respectively, my stance is generally going to be no. Maybe it would be different if the gap were two, but it is very much three prime postseasons here, and I just see that as a massive value cap.

I do appreciate the input though, because it made me do a quick mental figure in my head, and Gervin does have one of the lower marks for those with 10+ years of ~all-star value. I definitely could move him lower on that basis, although then the comparison would probably change to one with Mourning rather than to one with Thurmond.
Spoiler:
[Spoilering this because it is a tangential commentary to the rest of the post.]

One could argue that Mourning cost his team a postseason appearance in 1994, but what really sunk them was missing Mourning and LJ. Charlotte was 15-11 when Johnson went down. They went 7-8 over the next fifteen games, which is not great but is still manageable. However, Mourning went down early in that fifteenth game. Over the following fifteen games without either of their two stars, the Hornets went 1-14. Mourning returned, as did Johnson shortly after, and they closed out the season on an 18-8 run — finishing one game behind the Heat, who had beaten them by six points in the middle of their season-killing 1-14 starless stretch. Yeah, his injury hurt the team, but there was a lot of other bad luck accompanying it, and he would have been there and playing for the postseason if one game had gone differently (or perhaps just occurred at a different time).
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/31/2023) 

Post#10 » by trelos6 » Fri Dec 29, 2023 1:23 am

Vote: Isiah Thomas

Image

Solid offensive production as a chief playmaker for 8 seasons, and he was passable as a PG defensively.

Alt vote: Alonzo Mourning

Image

10 years of superb defensive play, coupled with a few seasons of ~ 23 pp75 +5% rTS. 3 yr PS of 23, +6. Always an efficient big man, sans that one season in 04-05. Jumps ahead of Pau, Thurmond. Reed has a good peak, but not much longevity.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/31/2023) 

Post#11 » by Samurai » Fri Dec 29, 2023 3:37 am

Vote for #58: George Gervin. Outstanding scorer who led the league in scoring 4 times (only Jordan, Wilt and KD have more scoring titles and tied with Kobe and Harden). Named All NBA/ABA nine times (5 of them to the First Team), played in 12 straight All Star games, and scored double figures in 407 consecutive games. Not a very good defender although he was a very good defensive rebounder and shot blocker for a guard. And the eye test tells me that he had the best floating finger roll off a drive that I've ever seen (Wilt's was off a post-up, not a drive!).

Alternate vote: Alonzo Mourning. Elite defender (two-time Defensive Player of the Year) to go with solid scoring skills (five seasons in the top 20 in points/game and four top 20 seasons in TS%). Good but not elite rebounder and not a particularly good passer. But eight seasons in the top 20 for PER still indicates that he was a star in his era.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/31/2023) 

Post#12 » by HeartBreakKid » Fri Dec 29, 2023 3:12 pm

LA Bird wrote:Gervin over Thurmond seems like plain scoring bias to me. 4 scoring titles is great but if there was an annual title awarded for best man defender in the league, Thurmond would have won a lot more than 4. So why is Gervin's one dimensional scoring held in much higher regard than Thurmond's man defense? And if your answer is that offense is more important than defense in basketball, be my guest and look at any measure of overall two-way impact for these two players.

Thurmond wins in a clean sweep across all of ElGee's WOWY variations:
Prime WOWYR: 5.0 vs 2.1
Career WOWYR: 5.1 vs 3.3
Scaled WOWYR: 4.6 vs 1.9
Alt Scaled WOWYR: 4.5 vs 2.9
10year Scaled GPM: 4.7 vs 0.0

Thurmond is near MVP-level in Moonbeam's RWOWY whereas Gervin hovers around 60-70th percentile, one of the lowest marks of any all timer:

Image

Gervin was undeniably an incredible scorer but his impact on team success, at least from available data, is lacking. And that is concerning for a player who only won 3 playoff series their entire career. I know team success is dependent on teammate quality so if you aren't winning a lot, it's fine if there is some evidence of impact. But with Gervin we get neither the success nor the lift.


What is Alt Scaled?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/31/2023) 

Post#13 » by HeartBreakKid » Fri Dec 29, 2023 3:22 pm

My vote is for Willis Reed – It’s between him and Alonzo for some of the last elite two way, 1st option type of bigs. I’m not actually sure if he’s better than Alonzo, but I felt like I’ve underrated him in the past and I may be overcompensating for it.

My alternate vote is for Alonzo Mourning – He’s been overrated a lot as an offensive player as his high scoring comes with a lot of warts and limitations, but compared to Thurmond it’s clear that Alonzo would still be a very effective 2nd option. He is not as good of an offensive player as Pau Gasol who has more utility and is less wasteful of possessions, but the defensive gap is quite large. I don’t put him on the same tier as Thurmond, but Alonzo is still a DPOY caliber center, which is quite game changing.




The others

Nate Thurmond – I think his defense is more than enough to carry him over some real great two way and offensive players, but going up against C’s like Mourning and Reed prices him out.

Isiah Thomas - Great offensive player who helped anchor elite offenses before the Pistons became contenders. I trust him to run a team more than Pau and Gervin, but I'd take some big boy defensive C's over him.

Pau Gasol – Pau is incredibly well rounded and has heroics, but I think he gets a bit too much credit for being a “2nd guy”. I think there are a lot of 1st guys who are stereotyped of not being able to play well with other stars, and I don’t really buy it. I don’t care much for longevity either, and we can’t take into account international play, so Gasol doesn’t rank that high compared to the players available. I think Thurmond's defense might be enough of an outlier for me to take them over Pau for example. Isiah was able to anchor elite offenses due to his ability to facilitate and score at a high level. I think DPOY caliber defense is really hard to beat, and an offensive oriented center going up against an all time great PG is equally hard.

Gervin - I've never been convinced that Gervin was a great player, so hopefully this time around is when it happens. Just seems like such a one dimensional player, and I don't know if his scoring is enough to overcome all those negatives AND be placed above the top 60 best players. I'm incline to think that he likely gave up a lot on defense - I know someone is gonna be like "ACTUALLY HE WASNT THAT BAD and it's like come on...he literally said he doesn't play defense lol.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/31/2023) 

Post#14 » by homecourtloss » Fri Dec 29, 2023 5:27 pm

Vote: Nate Thurmond
Alt vote:Alonzo Mourning (open to arguments for others here)

Nate Thurmond

When you watch Thurmond play, you can see his seemingly innate ability to read the game and anticipate opponents' moves/movement. The offensive schemes at the time that he played called for a certain type of defense, but I think that he would’ve also been great defensively in an open space and pace game because of his high basketball, IQ and understanding of opponents’ strategies that allow him to disrupt offensive actions opponent offensive actions. His strength and agility allowed him to guard players across multiple positions, making him a versatile defensive force. Then there was his relentless motor and as has been discussed before, any player with the motor like that combined with talent is a massive plus player, which the data that we have seems to bear out:

Image

Alonzo Mourning:

High-motor defensive monster who could provide efficacious scoring (oddly stopped shooting FTs well after he left Charlotte). Shows up well in Moonbeam’s RWoWY set and Englemann’s PI RAPM, 1997-2022


LA Bird wrote:Gervin over Thurmond seems like plain scoring bias to me. 4 scoring titles is great but if there was an annual title awarded for best man defender in the league, Thurmond would have won a lot more than 4. So why is Gervin's one dimensional scoring held in much higher regard than Thurmond's man defense? And if your answer is that offense is more important than defense in basketball, be my guest and look at any measure of overall two-way impact for these two players.

Thurmond wins in a clean sweep across all of ElGee's WOWY variations:
Prime WOWYR: 5.0 vs 2.1
Career WOWYR: 5.1 vs 3.3
Scaled WOWYR: 4.6 vs 1.9
Alt Scaled WOWYR: 4.5 vs 2.9
10year Scaled GPM: 4.7 vs 0.0

Thurmond is near MVP-level in Moonbeam's RWOWY whereas Gervin hovers around 60-70th percentile, one of the lowest marks of any all timer:

Image

Gervin was undeniably an incredible scorer but his impact on team success, at least from available data, is lacking. And that is concerning for a player who only won 3 playoff series their entire career. I know team success is dependent on teammate quality so if you aren't winning a lot, it's fine if there is some evidence of impact. But with Gervin we get neither the success nor the lift.


I’m wary of the Ice an’s defense bringing down his overall impact, but in the WoWY sets, it’s hard to tell since this guy never seemed to miss games, so the “without” samples seem insignificant. I tend to prefer high motor defensive bigs over just about everybody since I think that type of impact has the most type of portability.
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/31/2023) 

Post#15 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Dec 29, 2023 10:56 pm

AEnigma wrote:Top players on the board for me are Elvin Hayes, Dikembe Mutombo, Robert Parish, and Paul George. Looking past them, my next names are Unseld, Carter, and Billups.

Bobby Jones does not make my top hundred. I agree with Doc that he was never a true superstar the way we could at least argue was true of Manu, and after 1977 I think he stops being a true all-league player. Now, he could make up for that by just accruing sub-all-star value like Parish did… but he played far too few minutes to qualify in my eyes. I have him more on par with Dave DeBusschere — who is also probably not in my top hundred.

Rodman by contrast is in my top hundred. Playing a key role on five title teams, plus what I see as a reasonably impressive peak in 1992, gives him a safer floor there. However, I still tend to mark him below forwards like Rasheed, Marion, Nance, Cunninghan, Worthy, Wilkins, English… by this point Tatum…


So just chiming in with some thoughts on the guys mentioned and other who they make me think of.

- Hayes vs Unseld is always an interesting one to ponder. My instinct is to favor Unseld, but many have presented good arguments for Hayes, with beast's always sticking in my mind because of his Bullet perspective. I am inclined to turn my nose up at Hayes scoring due to the inefficiency, but someone needed to shoot on that team, and that team had quality, sustained success. Add in that Hayes had the length to be a defensive anchor and Unseld did not, it's very possible that Hayes not only was more valuable in some years, but might have been more valuable over the entirety of his time on the Bullets than Unseld was.

- But with that said, I don't think there's any doubt who Mr. Bullet is - it's Wes who was the foundation on which they built, it's Wes who had legendary leadership stature, and it's Wes who approached the game in a way that seemed sure to add positive value filling in the gaps others didn't focus on.

- Mutombo & Parish are two guys I'm thinking about alongside Ben Wallace. In both cases I see an argument for 2-way impact, and in Mutombo's case there's the argument he was better on defense too. Ben became a more singular icon leading the Pistons to the title, but how much of that is just luck? Certainly some. I think there's a question of whether there was something about Ben's less stretched out frame that was enough of an advantage to leave him better suited against more modern play.

- Paul George - so I'm low on George's career, and to be honest maybe unreasonably so. Both he and Shawn Marion have this situation where they pushed their way out of their best basketball situation acting as if they were aggrieved by organizations I think did everything you could reasonably ask of them, and this sort of thing lingers with me. Now, George is in better shape than Marion with this because with George we can continue to see the talent instead of seeming to leave what was truly special behind him, but I still have this sense of George's career that it hasn't amounted to much. He was certainly on his way to a career with a legacy in Indiana, but then he blew that up, jerked his next team around, and has been a part of Clipper superteam now for many years without them actually leaving much of a mark.

- Carter as I've noted recently is a guy who I'm increasingly feeling like I've underrated. Still don't feel like it's necessarily a dramatic peak underrating, but the rest of his career was more solid than it tends to get credit for.

- Billups is interesting. His rise to his 2020 rank definitely felt like a situation where my position was overtaken by events - from a proponent to a skeptic. As we near the 60s, siding with Billups doesn't seem strange. My pre-list had Lillard ahead of him, but I could see that being reversed. I will say I go back & forth on Billups vs Ben. Certainly perception shifted from Ben as the team MVP to Billups as the team MVP over their time together, and I think that was correct. Had it been, say, 2006 where the Pistons broke through and won the title selecting Billups over Ben would likely be an easy call. But it was 2004 when it happened, and of course 2004 was coached by one guy (Larry Brown) and 2006 by another (Flip Saunders), with changes to philosophy along the way as well as player aging. This then to say that if I'm talking simply about Hall-worthiness, Ben > Billups pretty easily, but from there it's a question of criteria.

- Bobby Jones & DeBusschere. 2 things here: 1) Bobby was a big time shot-blocker, and that's no small thing when comparing defenders, and 2) Bobby was hyper efficient, and DeBusschere really wasn't. I can definitely see arguments for DeBusschere based on minutes, but I don't really see them as having a similar statistical silhouette.

- Bobby Jones & Rodman. Same things as in the DeBusschere comparison for the most part. Big difference with Rodman is the way he absolutely fixated on rebounding. If you believe that's valuable enough then I'd expect you to favor Rodman here. I'll say though that before we got +/- data, there were arguments that essentially theorized that Rodman was a massive +/- guy, and that's not really what the data has told us. By contrast, there were similar arguments for Jones and those arguments arguably underestimated Jones even though they were praising him. And then beyond that, there's the destructive part of his behavior to consider. I don't want to overstate that significance of that, but Jones was definitely better as a culture guy.

- Sheed. Speaking of not-so-culture guys. I can definitely see the argument for Sheed over, say, Jones, but much of what Sheed brought that Jones didn't, Sheed didn't seem to enjoy using. Sheed seemed happiest being a role player for Detroit and while he was a hell of a role player, I can't say I think he was better at it than Jones except possibly by minutes.

- Nance. I'm on Team Larry too. The more I learn about him, the more he steps forward as a guy who was better than people realized. I could see going for Nance before any of the other guys mentioned so far honestly, though I'm not at this time planning to champion him.

- Cunningham. Definitely a guy to consider. Had the rep as a high BBIQ guy and Moonbeam's RWOWY liked him quite a bit iirc. But if I'm bringing up Cunningham, it makes me want to talk about other ABA guys. Yes Cunningham came right in and won the MVP, but the team didn't keep it up in the playoffs. By contrast a guy like Zelmo Beaty did. We then also have guys like Connie Hawkins & Mel Daniels to consider. After having championed Hawk through projects end to no avail last time, I'm going to be cautious about putting his name forward at all despite the fact I think he was better at basketball than any of these guys...but I am feeling a pull toward Zelmo.

- Worthy, Nique, English. So a bunch of '80s scorers makes sense to discuss them together. I do feel compelled to pick up Worthy and say "No, he's different." The eternal question is how well each guys would do if Worthy changed places with Nique or another volume scorer in the time period. I don't know, but what I will say is that a) I think it matters a great deal whether a scorer could play as well as Worthy did in Magic's offense, and b) I think people back then very much overrated how impressive volume scoring at mediocre efficiency was. (Granted English was pretty efficiency.)

- Tatum. I've never really been a Tatum fan...but I think he's accomplished more to this point in his career than Embiid, so yeah, I think we need to talk about him. You brought up Paul George. Pretty sure we're going to need to discuss Rudy Gobert & Luka Doncic too. The thing about Tatum is that he's actually look remarkably consistent as an elite +/- guy for quite a while now but I think most of us tend to think he isn't quite as good as the numbers say, and so the question is: What's with the discrepancy?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/31/2023) 

Post#16 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Fri Dec 29, 2023 11:05 pm

AEnigma wrote:Finally, the Cowens copy/paste is over. :lol:

This round for me is between Gervin and Isiah in some order. I have been repeating this for a while…
AEnigma wrote:Isiah’s passing gets overshadowed by Magic, but I think he has a strong argument as a top three on-ball creator of the 20th century. Captained consistently potent postseason offences, with something like an average +5 relative mark throughout his entire postseason prime.
… but while all that is true, I am not sure whether it a) gives Isiah a true peak advantage, or b) makes up for Isiah’s comparably short period of value (contrast with Cowens, where I very much felt his in-era peak and prime made up for the lesser longevity).

General sentiment here is Isiah has something of an achievement tiebreaker relative to Gervin, who never brought his team to the Finals and never even had a year where I could confidently call the Spurs top three in the league, without having a notable individual peak or prime in my estimate (contrast with Bob Lanier). That hurts Gervin here because I do not feel he was held back much by some woeful team (contrast again with Bob Lanier). I am not saying he was some individual disappointment — in his peak years he was providing 28 points per 75 possessions on ~+7 rTS — but I do think his archetype limited the heights to which he alone could elevate a team. He did not create much offence for others (contrast with Drexler or Pierce), nor was he some maestro of off-ball movement (contrast with Reggie or Ray). He was just a very good scorer.

If people want to sway my vote between those two, have at it.


I feel like I'm leaning towards Isiah between those two. Might there be something to the notion that Isiah impacted the game positively on both sides of the court(playmaking/creation and defense), while Gervin was more of a one-way player?

I also feel like Isiah has an edge as a playoff performer/riser - 6.0 BPM in the playoffs for his career(up from 2.6 in the RS) vs Gervin's 3.4 BPM in the playoffs(up from 2.5 i the RS). And that BPM wouldn't really even fully take into consideration Isiah's defensive advantages.

One other thing - and it may not matter to everybody - but I do think Isiah was a better leader than Gervin - he's often thought of as one of the great leaders in the league's history - and I do think there's value in that.

It's also hard to overlook the aforementioned achievement factor.

I was the one complaining a while ago about how far Gervin was falling, but I don't know, between these two, I'm having a hard time taking him over Isiah.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/31/2023) 

Post#17 » by trex_8063 » Fri Dec 29, 2023 11:40 pm

Induction Vote: Pau Gasol

I find it hard to believe that a guy who:
*had a mostly-durable 18-year career (ALL 18 years at least fair/useful/playable), peaking as an All-NBA level player;
**was probably at least a borderline or fringe All-Star level player (like at least top 25-30 in the league) for literally 15 seasons;
***was Robin on 2 title teams (3-4 contenders);
****is 32nd all-time in career rs WS (tied for 43rd all-time in playoffs), and 30th since 1973 in rs VORP (38th in playoffs).....

.....took until the mid-50s to even get on the ballot.
The only guys ahead of him in rs WS are Dan Issel (weaker era [some in ABA], and notably weak defensive guy), and the guy I'm nominating [Robert Parish]. And there are only six guys not yet inducted ahead of him in playoff WS (one of them is Robert Horry, fwiw; another is Horace Grant, and another is Al Horford......three guys for whom I think most would agree have no case above Pau).
The ONLY guy ahead of him in VORP [since 1973]---barely, by just 0.4---is Vince Carter. There are only four guys not yet inducted ahead of him in career playoff VORP (and again, one of them is Robert Horry; another is Horford).

McHale's inducted at #48, iirc, though I have a hard time making the case [to myself] for McHale > Pau, given Pau's superior passing, turnover economy, rebounding, and meaningful longevity (all occurring in what is likely a marginally better league, too). Similar individual accolades and team accomplishments to McHale, as well.
I hope Pau doesn't have long to wait to be inducted.


Alternate vote: Isiah Thomas
The defacto agreed-upon leader of a multiple contender team, excellent playmaker, playoff riser, fair defender. Pretty good WOWY profile in his prime.


For purposes of any potential run-off, I rank them Gasol > Thomas > Gervin > (Mourning >/= Thurmond) > Reed.



NOMINATION: Robert Parish
A longevity giant who shows signs of significant defensive impact very early in his career (and perhaps underrated on that end through much of his early prime), even though he came to be known as more of a scorer later.
This was a guy who was very productive WELL into his mid [or even late] 30s. In '89, when Bird missed the whole year, it was Parish more so than McHale who stepped up his output, and with no relevant drop in his overall efficiency.

He played more rs games than anyone in this game's history, and did so with a career PER of 19.2, .154 WS/48, +1.5 BPM, and a +9 net rating.


Alternate nomination: Chauncey Billups
The other great Piston PG; excellent efficiency [far better than Isiah, fwiw] on moderate scoring volume, decent playmaking and turnover economy, and at least passable defender through much of his prime (2x All-Defensive Team, fwiw), decent longevity, title and FMVP, 5-time All-Star and 3 All-NBA teams [all of which probably UNDERrates him]........come on. If this isn't a resume worthy of at least being on the ballot nearly at #60.......:dontknow:
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/31/2023) 

Post#18 » by trex_8063 » Sat Dec 30, 2023 12:03 am

Bouncing this from prior thread.....

trex_8063 wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:Wouldn't mind seeing Nance and Marion start getting some mentions; both fine defenders with decent offensive games as finishers rather than playmakers. Don't have either as high as Bobby Jones though; he seemed more of a difference maker.


fwiw, I think both Marion and Nance have considerably more offensive ability than Jones. Not to mention they are not limited by minutes.
Jones played >29 mpg in the NBA precisely ONE season in his career (never played as many as 35 mpg even in the ABA). And this is before the era when load-management was a thing; it was primarily because Jones had asthma (is it conceivable that that in today's environment [where players have to cover SOOO much more ground defensively on an average possession] that Jones would be playing <24 mpg???).

As much as he was a "difference maker" while on the court, I'm wondering [doubtful] if it's enough to overcome the fact that some other players (including Marion and Nance) were "on the court" ~10 extra minutes night in, night out.
Not to mention BOTH had longer careers.

wrt his impressive on/off, I'm wondering if part of that is WHO he was replacing. Late 70s/80s it was one of Darryl Dawkins or Caldwell Jones (Caldwell an excellent defender, but an empty uniform on offense, Dawkins kinda so-so on both ends). By '83 he was primarily replacing Marc Iavaroni (probably the weakest starter in the line-up). These things aid his on/off.


penbeast0 wrote:Then he was replacing Charles Barkley after that. ;-)


True.......for all of 21 mpg.
Still don't know how much time he's spending on court with the likes of Cheeks and/or Moses (which helps). fwiw, his WOWYR is good, but not great (particularly considering the limited playing time).

You've categorized Jones as a "difference maker"......and I'll allow that may be so when he's on the court.

He averaged around 29 mpg in his prime (anywhere from ~24 to 34).
Take that vs Shawn Marion, whom we were discussing........Marion averaged nearly 39 mpg in his prime (approx 36-42, depending on the year).
Is Bobby Jones soooo much more impactful while on the court that he's making more "difference" on a per game basis, even while playing nearly a FULL QUARTER less of the game? Or the 6 or so additional minutes Larry Nance gives you?

Personally, I'm skeptical.


penbeast0 wrote:But I have Jones slightly better on offense. Marion had more range and quickness, Nance was the longest and best finisher of the 3, so each had their skills, but while Jones scored a bit less (20 pp 100 possessions v. 22 and 24 respectively), Jones had the best passing skills of the 3 (assist % 13 to 11 for Nance and 9 for Marion).


He also has comfortably the worst turnover economy of the three:

mTOV%
Marion: 7.42%
Nance: 8.16%
Jones (minus '77): 10.85%


I would categorize all three as at least marginal positives on offense (some more positive than others). But again: Nance and Marion are providing their offensive positive for 6-10 additional minutes per game.


penbeast0 wrote:And his defense, which was his calling card, was certainly more celebrated than either.


More celebrated, definitely. Is the degree to which he was "celebrated" (or the degree to which Marion, in particular, was not) just?

Personally, I would argue that Marion never once receiving All-D honours is arguably the biggest NBA award snub of all-time. And again: the minutes difference. Jones so much better that it offsets how much LESS he's actually on the court? Almost assuredly not, imo.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/31/2023) 

Post#19 » by LA Bird » Sat Dec 30, 2023 12:19 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:
LA Bird wrote:
Spoiler:
Gervin over Thurmond seems like plain scoring bias to me. 4 scoring titles is great but if there was an annual title awarded for best man defender in the league, Thurmond would have won a lot more than 4. So why is Gervin's one dimensional scoring held in much higher regard than Thurmond's man defense? And if your answer is that offense is more important than defense in basketball, be my guest and look at any measure of overall two-way impact for these two players.

Thurmond wins in a clean sweep across all of ElGee's WOWY variations:
Prime WOWYR: 5.0 vs 2.1
Career WOWYR: 5.1 vs 3.3
Scaled WOWYR: 4.6 vs 1.9
Alt Scaled WOWYR: 4.5 vs 2.9
10year Scaled GPM: 4.7 vs 0.0

Thurmond is near MVP-level in Moonbeam's RWOWY whereas Gervin hovers around 60-70th percentile, one of the lowest marks of any all timer:

Image

Gervin was undeniably an incredible scorer but his impact on team success, at least from available data, is lacking. And that is concerning for a player who only won 3 playoff series their entire career. I know team success is dependent on teammate quality so if you aren't winning a lot, it's fine if there is some evidence of impact. But with Gervin we get neither the success nor the lift.


What is Alt Scaled?

https://backpicks.com/2017/11/17/part-iv-historical-impact-multiple-wowyr-studies/

Additionally, I’ve added an alternative version of WOWYR to the table below that uses 20 minutes per game as a cutoff for qualifying players — a version that was slightly worse at predicting lineup results than the prime WOWYR published in Part III, but contained enough variability to throw into the mix.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #58 (Deadline ~5am PST, 12/31/2023) 

Post#20 » by penbeast0 » Sat Dec 30, 2023 3:15 am

trex_8063 wrote:Bouncing this from prior thread.....

trex_8063 wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:Wouldn't mind seeing Nance and Marion start getting some mentions; both fine defenders with decent offensive games as finishers rather than playmakers. Don't have either as high as Bobby Jones though; he seemed more of a difference maker.


fwiw, I think both Marion and Nance have considerably more offensive ability than Jones. Not to mention they are not limited by minutes.
Jones played >29 mpg in the NBA precisely ONE season in his career (never played as many as 35 mpg even in the ABA). And this is before the era when load-management was a thing; it was primarily because Jones had asthma (is it conceivable that that in today's environment [where players have to cover SOOO much more ground defensively on an average possession] that Jones would be playing <24 mpg???).

As much as he was a "difference maker" while on the court, I'm wondering [doubtful] if it's enough to overcome the fact that some other players (including Marion and Nance) were "on the court" ~10 extra minutes night in, night out.
Not to mention BOTH had longer careers.

wrt his impressive on/off, I'm wondering if part of that is WHO he was replacing. Late 70s/80s it was one of Darryl Dawkins or Caldwell Jones (Caldwell an excellent defender, but an empty uniform on offense, Dawkins kinda so-so on both ends). By '83 he was primarily replacing Marc Iavaroni (probably the weakest starter in the line-up). These things aid his on/off.


penbeast0 wrote:Then he was replacing Charles Barkley after that. ;-)


True.......for all of 21 mpg.
Still don't know how much time he's spending on court with the likes of Cheeks and/or Moses (which helps). fwiw, his WOWYR is good, but not great (particularly considering the limited playing time).

You've categorized Jones as a "difference maker"......and I'll allow that may be so when he's on the court.

He averaged around 29 mpg in his prime (anywhere from ~24 to 34).
Take that vs Shawn Marion, whom we were discussing........Marion averaged nearly 39 mpg in his prime (approx 36-42, depending on the year).
Is Bobby Jones soooo much more impactful while on the court that he's making more "difference" on a per game basis, even while playing nearly a FULL QUARTER less of the game? Or the 6 or so additional minutes Larry Nance gives you?

Personally, I'm skeptical.


penbeast0 wrote:But I have Jones slightly better on offense. Marion had more range and quickness, Nance was the longest and best finisher of the 3, so each had their skills, but while Jones scored a bit less (20 pp 100 possessions v. 22 and 24 respectively), Jones had the best passing skills of the 3 (assist % 13 to 11 for Nance and 9 for Marion).


He also has comfortably the worst turnover economy of the three:

mTOV%
Marion: 7.42%
Nance: 8.16%
Jones (minus '77): 10.85%


I would categorize all three as at least marginal positives on offense (some more positive than others). But again: Nance and Marion are providing their offensive positive for 6-10 additional minutes per game.


penbeast0 wrote:And his defense, which was his calling card, was certainly more celebrated than either.


More celebrated, definitely. Is the degree to which he was "celebrated" (or the degree to which Marion, in particular, was not) just?

Personally, I would argue that Marion never once receiving All-D honours is arguably the biggest NBA award snub of all-time. And again: the minutes difference. Jones so much better that it offsets how much LESS he's actually on the court? Almost assuredly not, imo.


Is this a consistent argument you make? Giannis for example hasn't averaged 35 mpg since 2018, Embiid has never averaged that much, nor has Jokic. Jones's minutes were lower than theirs were, though, so my counter isn't that strong.

I do think Bobby Jones is enough better that I have him over Nance and Marion, both of whom I like very much. I think he became a 6th man because that was what the team needed, sacrificing individual numbers for team value. I don't think his years over 30 MPG (76, 77, 79) look any worse on a per minute or per possession analysis.

It's a valid issue and I figured that this would be one of those hills where I'd be alone for a while, like having Mikan top 10-20, but he just always seemed invigorate his teams whenever he played, whether he was subbing for or being subbed by a Byron Beck or Mark Iavaronni or whether he came in for Julius Erving or Charles Barkley.
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