The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley)

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The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#1 » by Doctor MJ » Sat Dec 30, 2023 10:18 pm

So, it's just been announced that the Raptors finally traded OG Anunoby. While it's certainly expected to be seen as the Anunoby trade now and in the future, included in the trade on the other side is Immanuel Quickley, who is someone who's +/- stats I've been watching since he entered the league.

Quickley led the Knicks in +/- in his first 3 years, and at the time of the trade, he was leading the Knicks again. The trade now complicates such a simple stat, but just to give an idea how unusual it would be to lead his team 4 years in a row, here's the list of guys I have on record:

Baron Davis (across Cha/NO/Clip))
Chris Paul (two separate times, in NO, then Clippers)
Shaquille O'Neal (Lakers)
Steve Nash (Phx)
Dirk Nowitzki (Dal, longest streak at 8)
Tim Duncan (SA)
Nikola Jokic (Den)
Russell Westbrook (OKC)
Jayson Tatum (Bos)
Jason Kidd (NJ)
Patrick Ewing (NY)
LeBron James (two separate times, in Cle, then combined Mia/Cle)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Mil)
Mookie Blaylock (Atl)
Kyle Korver (Atl, and continued in Cle)
Lou Williams (across Tor/LA/LA)

Now, not all of these players superstar players obviously. What I'd say is that each of these guys tells a story.

Clearly the obvious link here is between Quickley and Lou, because both did this off the bench. I don't think any of us is that excited about a Lou-level player, but at least it gives us a sense of a baseline. While wasn't the best 6th man in history, he might be the archetype for what a "6th man type" player is. and we can see that what he was doing was more than just do pretty good off the bench. His teams tended to do better with their bench lineups than their starters, and that's an accomplishment for the bench lineup.

Of course, Lou being great as the first option against lesser competition didn't translate to being close-to-great against better competition, so 6th man really seemed like the right role for Lou.

Now we look forward to Quickley on a new team and we'll see what happens. I'm not looking to make predictions, but I'm very curious to see if his impact holds up in a new context, particularly if he's allowed to have a starter's role.

I will point out a couple things that make Quickley's situation different from Lou's:

1. Quickley's doing it primarily with defensive impact, which is arguably unique among guards on this list, and I don't think there's serious doubt that his defensive ability scales relative to typical starting defensive guards.

2. Quickley's numbers to this point in his career have been way more impressive than Lou's ever were.

Lou has a career On of +0.2 and On/Off of +0.3.
Interestingly, those were also exactly his numbers in Philly for his first 7 years.
To give a sense of his On/Off at its best, he broke +5.0 in 3 seasons.

Quickley has a career On of +7.3 and On/Off of +10.1.
And he's been north of +5.0 in On/Off every season, as well as in On.

And again focusing on the fact that this is the start of Quickley's career, who in that list above do you think did this in his first 4 years in the league?

Answer in Spoilers:

Spoiler:
Image


So yeah, pretty select company.

It will be interesting to see what happens next. I think Quickley clearly believes he's a starter-level guard and then some so things will likely come to a head, well, quickly one way or the other.

If Quickley falls on his face, it will make Thibs look like a miracle worker.
If Quickley again is only a bench guy, it will still make Thibs look pretty wise.

But what if Quickley ends up being a breakout guy continuing to put up big +/- numbers but in a starters' role, I think there will be a lot of questions asked about why Thibs didn't look to do more with him.

On the other side of things of course is what happens in New York. There things are complicated because Anunoby is a great player. Still, since Quickley came off the bench and Anunoby will surely be a starter, it's worth paying attention to how the Knick bench minutes look now. If they still look great, that will be interesting and a feather in Thibs cap to be sure.
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Re: The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#2 » by One_and_Done » Sat Dec 30, 2023 10:23 pm

I'll be using the trade as an IQ test for sure, since it'll let me know how seriously to take those who praise Masai for it. No matter how this pans out for NY, Toronto has already lost by Masai overplaying his hand yet again. He'd have gotten much more trading OG a year ago.
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Re: The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#3 » by Colbinii » Sat Dec 30, 2023 10:31 pm

One_and_Done wrote:I'll be using the trade as an IQ test for sure, since it'll let me know how seriously to take those who praise Masai for it. No matter how this pans out for NY, Toronto has already lost by Masai overplaying his hand yet again. He'd have gotten much more trading OG a year ago.


This isn't true at all. It is quite possible IQ becomes a Derrick White-level Point Guard in a more expanded role and IQ wasn't available last season due to the ability to still re-sign for cheap.
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Re: The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#4 » by eminence » Sat Dec 30, 2023 10:43 pm

I'm a Quickley believer, so I'm happy he should get a real chance to shine in Toronto (though a bit bummed it could lower Utah's chances of stealing him away as a FA). I generally don't see the other pieces involved as real needle movers. Barrett is fine and could maybe get there, but also a chance he's just overpaid. OG's a great 3rd/4th guy

Trade makes sense to me for both squads, if New York didn't see a way forward with Brunson/Quickley as a duo (and it didn't seem they did - their 18th most used duo this season), use him to upgrade the RJ wing slot now before he's also on a big money deal and it all gets more difficult to swing (or losing him for nothing). With the Agent to President connection I imagine they can feel reasonably confident signing OG.

For Toronto losing OG hurts, but it was clear the current setup wasn't working, and Quickley could be a real partner for Barnes going forward. I'm expecting a Siakam move to come.
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Re: The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#5 » by XTC » Sat Dec 30, 2023 11:36 pm

Quickley PER36 stats with no Brunson on the court in 22/23

PPG: 21.3
APG: 5.8
TS: 56.3%

Quickley PER36 stats with no Brunson on the court in 23/24

PPG: 25.7
APG: 5.1
TS: 61.0%

Quickley has been a fantasy darling for awhile now. His biggest supporters have been advocating for him to get a bigger role because they believe him to be a star. He's going to get all the opportunity in the world in Toronto, let's see what he has going for him. Massive gamble for Toronto, but if it pays off then they struck gold.
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Re: The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#6 » by tsherkin » Sun Dec 31, 2023 12:21 am

Can definitely shoot. Good defender. Will be very interested to see how Toronto chooses to deploy him. Do they test his ability to support higher usage and really lean on that 3, or do they keep him shooting a similar amount and see what he can do let loose as more of a playmaking guard? We've lost a corner 3pt shooter and a very important help defender, but they seem to have gained some potential in terms of north-south pressure from point of attack.

Barrett is not exciting at all, but IQ has a lot of interesting potential and it will be fun to see what he can and cannot do. Much more fun than watching Flynn, anyway.
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Re: The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#7 » by durantbird » Sun Dec 31, 2023 9:59 am

You meant Baron Davis in GSW? His Clippers tenure wasn't subsquent to his Charlotte/New Orleans years
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Re: The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#8 » by durantbird » Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:04 am

durantbird wrote:You meant Baron Davis in GSW? His Clippers tenure wasn't subsquent to his Charlotte/New Orleans years

This subsequent Davis season is also a split season.

Also Luo Williams had a split Lakers/Houston season between Lakers and Clippers.
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Re: The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#9 » by MMyhre » Sun Dec 31, 2023 3:13 pm

I watched some highlights of him, he was a bit worse than I thought he would be, felt like his game was a little bit too horizontal in the same direction (always goes right, not comfortable going to his left. When people rush out to him on the 3pt line he can get by them to his left, but its much slower than his right and he usually goes to a right hand floater instead of attacking), very reliant on getting hot from three, slow/heavy/very set 3pt launch if that makes sense, not really a quick Curry release of the ball, which could be a concern against better defenders in starting lineups.

Obviously quick, fast and strong, not really a playmaker, had some tendencies where he took tougher layups/paths towards the basket than he could if he was more determined to go harder/not fear some big rotating that wasnt really there, like he had the finish wide open on a layup, and went for a reverse layup for no reason, which I found a bit odd.

OFC, I only watch highlights of elite players, so these second unit players look worse in comparison. I think there is a learning curve for him, I expect some ups and downs, but if he can release the 3pt shot a bit faster, add some playmaking, more variety to his driving (being able to go left, and actually going left and finishing on the left side), a bit more verticality when finishing and less fear when driving to the rim he could be an All Star for sure. Its not the next James Harden though. I'm going to watch some more videos, its always fun to see if someone can take a leap as a player when given more responsibility.

*Observations - he uses his left hand on a pretty slow fastbreak, the speed is so slow compared to his right, tries to step back, almost loses the dribble, yet is able to get by due to his quickness after he regathers, the finish is very weak and non-vertical because he has poor technique with his left side, jumps off his left leg, less balance, less power than a right side foot jump into his left hand, causing him to barely finish a weak layup on the left side. I would literally sit on that fking right hand side, make everything he does go left. Makes him easier to block if he pulls up since his shooting hand is closer to you as well, I cant imagine better NBA defenders and coaches not seeing this, so its going to be interesting if his "speedy bench guy going right, finishing right and going hot from 3, pretty average leaper, bad/cant setup layups dunks with balance and power on the left, so if he goes for a layup he needs that left foot plant into a right hand finish, which means its going to make his finishing angles tougher/easier to block for the opponents, with a non-elite release speed gimmick" is going to translate as well. People say he is a good defender, I dont have any insight so just gonna go with that, which adds value obviously.

He is good at getting separation for his 3pt setup though, which is huge. Also made some shots against Tatum and White, although White was damned close to block him lol. His wingspan allows him to get off shots with a high release even though the setup is a bit on the slow side in my observation. I think he is really poor at generating/using the force he is creating with his speed going to the rim, when he attacks the rim, he is like the anti-Ja Morant where he just stops all his momentum and loves to stop on a dime and go for a floater ish finish near the rim. Kinda weird. What I am talking about is going from horizontal so running and taking that power/force and translating it into jumping force. He is just not a vertical athlete in any way, which combined with his lack of an ability to finish with better angles on his left hand makes him a lot easier to predict on drives. I guess I am spoiled watching Wade dance in 20 different directions going to the rim, its just so one dimensional, but his speed/quickness allows him to get to spots, but the lack of verticality as a driver in the NBA obviously isnt a plus.

I found a video where you can see what im talking about, idk who this fat guy defender is, Williams it seems, terrible defense, but Quickley manages to go left, but because he is slower going left than to his right, it gives time for the help defender to rotate over, and because he cant jump off his right foot into a left foot layup for the easier angle and finish using the rim as a protection, he jumps off his left foot into a right hand finish literally jumping towards the defender creating a much tougher finish than was available on the left side and, and almost gets blocked instead. This worked here, but like thats the biggest limitation he has.

TLDR SUMMARY

Strengths - Elite speed/horizontal athlete, first step, quickness, very hard to stay in front of going to his right, usually just gets into the paint at will, also just so quick that he can get by people going left as well, even though its not as good, great 3pt shooter and is comfortable pulling up both going left and right, good at stepbacks in different directions, and good at creating separation with a fast and long setup step into his shot, when he is flowing he likes to do a through the legs from left to right into a stepback three which looks nice. Good floater, good finisher on his right side, good defender ? according to what I read, no idea myself, long wingspan which also allows him to get off his shots with a higher release, sturdy and very consistent set jump shot. Very good at setting up others on a fastbreak where he is most efficient at being the first guy pushing the pace blowing by people and then setting up the vertical guys like Toppin for the finish. Microwave ability, he goes on hot streaks. Good lobber?

Weaknesses - Almost non existent finishing on his left side, he just doesnt have the mechanics to jump off his right foot getting into a left handed finish, which makes him predictable/makes his layups tougher/easier to defend because he always has to leap off his left foot and go to his right, so he will sometimes have to go for tougher reverse finishes because he needs to jump a certain way to generate force/get balance. So this really hurts his ability to generate easier looks/angles and finishes to complement his ability to get into the rim. Slower going left than right, so quicker defenders seem to be able to keep up more often. Bad vertical athlete, doesnt have the ability to transition horizontal force (sprinting) into vertical force (jumping) efficently, so he just isnt able to get easier looks/finishes at the rim. Not much of a playmaker/not much vision or ability to set up 3pt shooters, usually looks for his own shot or a big near the rim. Predictable patterns. Wants to look for a pullup or go right and finish jumping off his left foot into a right foot finish primarily. A bit too reliant on his 3 ball for scoring, especially efficency wise.

What will he be for the Raptors? Idk honestly, I think a decent scoring option/rim pressurer/floor spacer/fastbreak player/defender?, but I think I wont say All Star after looking more, thats probably a reach with so many guys that can score just as good or better than him, but primarily playmake much better than him at the guard position.
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Re: The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#10 » by Clyde Frazier » Sun Dec 31, 2023 7:10 pm

My post on the Knicks board regarding the trade:

To be clear, OG is definitely a great fit at SF with this starting 5. think he'll do well here. RJ masquerading as an undersized wing didn't exactly help him.

But giving up on IQ is a flat out failure by thibs and his stubbornness. With the knicks winning you tend to let it slide/not harp on it as much, but he was underutilized (especially this season!) and therefore undervalued by the front office.

The game has changed. He didn't have to start but he didn't get nearly enough minutes alongside brunson. His impact was clear as day even without looking at the numbers. And yeah, the numbers were damn good:

Read on Twitter


It's just gonna hurt seeing IQ thrive somewhere else when it could've been here. As others have said, I hope the knicks aren't done. I don't see how mitchell makes sense next to brunson tho when he's a legitimately bad defender.
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Re: The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#11 » by MMyhre » Sun Dec 31, 2023 10:39 pm

Adding some extra notes "a bit too reliant on his 3 ball to make a big impact. And indeed, when I check his game log, when he only makes 1 or fewer threes = he only has 1 game out of 14 above 15 pts, and he had to take 16 shots in 28 mins for 18 pts with a -1 +/-. He also only shot 50 % from the field or above 3 times, and 2 of those were on just 5 and 6 attempts, so not too impressive. He didnt get to the line more when his 3 wasnt falling 42 times vs 49 in the 15 3+ 3pts or more games. Also shot below 40 % from the field in 9 out of those 14 games with 2 others at 44 %.

Makes sense when his limitations makes him not that good at scoring at the rim."
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Re: The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#12 » by Colbinii » Thu Jan 4, 2024 3:46 pm

2 games in and he was the leader in +/- for the starters in both game.

Seems like the trend continues!

It's interesting how the most basic statistic and ultimate goal of the game, outscoring your opponent, is always explained away, dismissed or neglected due to a myriad of reasons, including small sample, teammates, line-ups, ect, yet a player scoring 50 points in a game isn't considered a small sample for scoring while it is for +/-.
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Re: The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#13 » by AEnigma » Thu Jan 4, 2024 4:22 pm

Colbinii wrote:2 games in and he was the leader in +/- for the starters in both game.

Seems like the trend continues!

It's interesting how the most basic statistic and ultimate goal of the game, outscoring your opponent, is always explained away, dismissed or neglected due to a myriad of reasons, including small sample, teammates, line-ups, ect, yet a player scoring 50 points in a game isn't considered a small sample for scoring while it is for +/-.

Anunoby is +54 through two games with the Knicks, with one of those games being against your 1-seed Wolves.
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Re: The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#14 » by Colbinii » Thu Jan 4, 2024 4:32 pm

AEnigma wrote:
Colbinii wrote:2 games in and he was the leader in +/- for the starters in both game.

Seems like the trend continues!

It's interesting how the most basic statistic and ultimate goal of the game, outscoring your opponent, is always explained away, dismissed or neglected due to a myriad of reasons, including small sample, teammates, line-ups, ect, yet a player scoring 50 points in a game isn't considered a small sample for scoring while it is for +/-.

Anunoby is +54 through two games with the Knicks, with one of those games being against your 1-seed Wolves.


Yeah he has fit like a glove in New York. I am really excited to see how they do in the post-season, and how far Brunson/Randle Iso-Ball can take them.
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Re: The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#15 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jan 4, 2024 6:19 pm

AEnigma wrote:
Colbinii wrote:2 games in and he was the leader in +/- for the starters in both game.

Seems like the trend continues!

It's interesting how the most basic statistic and ultimate goal of the game, outscoring your opponent, is always explained away, dismissed or neglected due to a myriad of reasons, including small sample, teammates, line-ups, ect, yet a player scoring 50 points in a game isn't considered a small sample for scoring while it is for +/-.

Anunoby is +54 through two games with the Knicks, with one of those games being against your 1-seed Wolves.


So something I just wanted to emphasize:

I'm not in any way an OG skeptic. I think Anunoby is great and it was good for the Knicks to acquire him. I'm just not really focused on him here because I think it's generally agreed that Anunoby was at least a starter-level player and possibly an all-star talent in the right situation.

My focus on Quickley has a lot to do with the fact that he's been a career back-up with indicators he should have a considerably bigger role.
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Re: The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#16 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jan 4, 2024 6:22 pm

durantbird wrote:
durantbird wrote:You meant Baron Davis in GSW? His Clippers tenure wasn't subsquent to his Charlotte/New Orleans years

This subsequent Davis season is also a split season.

Also Luo Williams had a split Lakers/Houston season between Lakers and Clippers.


Thank you for the corrections.

To be clear, I don't think I did any double counting here crediting a guy for the same season twice, so I believe these guys skill meet the standard I specified.
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Re: The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#17 » by AEnigma » Thu Jan 4, 2024 6:32 pm

I think Quickley is a good player with a promising future, but more in the Lowry/Conley vein than in any true superstar sense.

The Raptors, of course, should be very happy to have that type of player next to Barnes (and Siakam?).
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Re: The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#18 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jan 4, 2024 7:07 pm

AEnigma wrote:I think Quickley is a good player with a promising future, but more in the Lowry/Conley vein than in any true superstar sense.

The Raptors, of course, should be very happy to have that type of player next to Barnes (and Siakam?).


I don't disagree. I think it unlikely that Quickley will have a career that matches either Lowry or Conley, but of course those guys were definitely all-star level guys who were great for a long time, and if Quickley is anywhere near that range, I think the Knicks are going to be asking themselves why the hell they never used him as more than a back-up.

Trading him for OG isn't a crazy move at all, but I think we need to rewind and ask why the Knicks never really seemed to consider Quickley as a future starter. People are now are saying "Because they had Brunson!", but of course, before they had Brunson they had Quickley, and yet seemed to be going hard after not just Brunson but Donovan Mitchell.

The best justification I can think of is a philosophical belief that they needed a big-time scorer as their lead guard, and if that guy was on the short side, then they felt they needed their off-guard to be bigger.

Of course I would argue that if your currently playing with Elfrid Payton as your point guard, as the Knicks were in IQ's rookie year, maybe see what all you can get from Quickley before you decide you need to bank your future on players you might be able to get if you throw enough money and assets at it.
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Re: The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#19 » by Colbinii » Thu Jan 4, 2024 7:49 pm

AEnigma wrote:I think Quickley is a good player with a promising future, but more in the Lowry/Conley vein than in any true superstar sense.

The Raptors, of course, should be very happy to have that type of player next to Barnes (and Siakam?).


How do you view him compared to Maxey?

Quickley Career: 26.7 Points/100, 51% 3PaR, 28% FTR, 19% AST%/9% TOV%
Maxey Career: 27.9 Points/100, 35% 3PaR, 24% FTR, 20% AST%/7% TOV%

Lowry is a fun comparison, and I think where most people land on a realistic outcome for Quickley, which is why, to me, it was weird how under-valued he was in New York. I don't think Lowry is some 99%, High-End outcome for Quickley, which just baffles me how little he was regarded around the league.
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Re: The Upcoming IQ Test (on the trade of Immanuel Quickley) 

Post#20 » by AEnigma » Thu Jan 4, 2024 7:54 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Trading him for OG isn't a crazy move at all, but I think we need to rewind and ask why the Knicks never really seemed to consider Quickley as a future starter. People are now are saying "Because they had Brunson!", but of course, before they had Brunson they had Quickley, and yet seemed to be going hard after not just Brunson but Donovan Mitchell.

The best justification I can think of is a philosophical belief that they needed a big-time scorer as their lead guard, and if that guy was on the short side, then they felt they needed their off-guard to be bigger.

Of course I would argue that if your currently playing with Elfrid Payton as your point guard, as the Knicks were in IQ's rookie year, maybe see what all you can get from Quickley before you decide you need to bank your future on players you might be able to get if you throw enough money and assets at it.

Brunson was really the only 2022 all-star level free agent who changed teams. In 2023 it was VanVleet.

Teams like the Knicks are happy to have playoff relevance, and Brunson has at least provided them with a couple years of that. The league is very guard heavy right now, and stars at the other positions carry exorbitant asking prices. The ideal would have been to keep Quickley and pair him with a positionally complementary star (kind-of like the Raptors just did :lol:)… but who was available at a reasonable price?

This is not a proportionate analogy (barring a wholly unexpected elevation by Quickley), but the Kings come to mind. Trading Haliburton for Sabonis was awful at the time and looks more awful by the day. Yet from the Kings’ point of view, they had two all-star point guards, one of whom had no trade value, and the other of whom could be parlayed into an all-star at their weakest position. They then break the longest playoff drought in the five North American major leagues, with a 3-seed finish at that, and look primed to repeat the feat this year and perhaps more to come. Objectively bad trade, but they got what they wanted out of it.

And I reiterate that Quickley is almost certainly not Haliburton.

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