Sox won't offer Lowell more than 2 years

Boston's Future · Post #1 » by **Boston's Future** » Wed Oct 24, 2007 6:49 pm

The Boston Globe's Jackie MacMullan spoke to a Red Sox source who said the team would "balk at offering Mike Lowell anything more than a two-year deal." Lowell is expected to get $10-12MM annually.

Since Lowell might be able to get four years guaranteed on the open market, it would be a large sacrifice to accept just two. For what it's worth, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system expects Lowell to be worth $28.4MM over the next four years, $23MM over the next three, and $17.3MM over the 2008-09 period. However PECOTA did project Lowell to hit .273/.333/.441 this year while he actually hit .324/.378/.501.

Lowell's awful 2005 looks like an aberration, but it still seems to scare the Red Sox. I imagine they'd guarantee three years if Lowell had been decent in '05.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Well, Lowell is gonna be looking for 4 years, so i guess thats the end of his career in Bostn. :evil:

Post #2 » by **sunshinekids99** » Wed Oct 24, 2007 7:12 pm

I could see the Sox maybe over paying a bit for the first two year then having games played or production based kickers that will allow the deal to go to three or four years. So if Lowell produces he gets his contract, if not he's gone.

Boston's Future · Post #3 » by **Boston's Future** » Sat Oct 27, 2007 9:49 pm

There are no other options out there than A-Rod, and he hasn't even optioned out yet of his contract with NY. Imagine if we let Lowell go and A-Rod stays with the Yankees, do you know how stupid we would look?? There is no backup plan. Three years for Lowell is good, the guy will be 36 when the contract ends, not 40 for god sake's.... his production isn't gonnna drop off the face of the earth in three years. Youk has become a gold glove firstbaseman and he should stay there. Don't move him back to third

fdefore · Post #4 » by **fdefore** » Sun Oct 28, 2007 5:05 am

we could try to get blake from the indians. just think: you pair his stunning beard with youk's goatee... that is one tremendously groomed infield. and by then dustin might even be shaving!

Post #5 » by **canman1971** » Sun Oct 28, 2007 1:11 pm

I really hope they can keep Lowell. He just seems like your ultimate professional so you have to think he'll still produce for a few year. This isn't Damon, who they saw declining and was a self proclaimed "idiot." Maybe 3 years with a vesting option for a 4th? There is just not a lot out there. They have Pedroia, Ellsbury, Youk, Papelbon, Buchholtz, all making little money in baseball terms, give Lowell a fair deal and he stays. Don't try and nickel and dime him or he will go.

Post #6 » by **sunshinekids99** » Sun Oct 28, 2007 1:25 pm

I think a three year deal maybe possible. 4th has to be a performance or team option tho.

fdefore · Post #7 » by **fdefore** » Sun Oct 28, 2007 5:11 pm

i agree with the 3yr/4th option deal.

Boston's Future · Post #8 » by **Boston's Future** » Fri Nov 2, 2007 10:18 pm

I'm gonna try and make sense of this (or at least try to) based on money for production value in a head to head comparison of the to. I'm throwing out clubhouse prescence and playoff performance

Courtsey of baseball reference (which is a great tool, btw) I've looked at the two's career averages:

A-Rod's is .306 average, 44 home runs, and 128 RBI.
Mike Lowell's is .280, 23 home runs, 97 RBI.

ARod's salary of 30 million over the next how many years is rougly double of what Lowell is looking for (I round up to 15 mill per year)

Neither guy is assumed to break down over the next three years
So for one year at 30 mill your expecting A-Rod to put his career averages. Now take Mike Lowell's salary and double it... if he was getting paid 30 mill a year his averages would look like .280, 46 home runs, and 197 RBI.

If both were 30 million dollar superstars both would put up similar numbers. If both made 30 mill a year both would be right on the money, pretty much equal players.

One could even say Lowell drives in more runs per money than A-Rod

So as you see for 15 mill a year the Red Sox are getting production out of Mike Lowell than the 30 million a year they would be paying for A-Rod.

.280, 23 homers and 97 RBI is solid for 15 mill (not even) a year

Post #9 » by **Bleeding Green** » Fri Nov 2, 2007 10:31 pm

Sweet. Collect the picks and put Jed Lowrie at third. Or put Youkilis at third and get a masher at first. Put Ortiz at first, Manny at DH and unleash Brandon Moss.

Many possibilities, none of which include signing a free agent to a stupid deal.

I don't think Mike Lowell is going to be very good next year. His defense has already taken a step back, how much longer until his offense does? He is not a .324 hitter and when that batting average plummets to his career average of .280 he's just another 3B. Thanks for the World Series, Mike.

Boston's Future · Post #10 » by **Boston's Future** » Sat Nov 3, 2007 10:05 pm

Lowell's career averages are .280/23/97... not worth 15 mill per.. but there are no other options other than A-rod. The defense will be hurt b/c your taking a gold glove calibur first baseman and moving him to another postion. You can't have Ortiz play first for an entire season. Maybe he could play 1st when the Sox on the road, then Manny could DH b/c Manny sucks in big Outfields. You move Youk to third we have to trade for Adam Dunn or something... Lets not over complicate things and just keep Mike Lowell

Post #11 » by **Bleeding Green** » Sun Nov 4, 2007 3:58 am

It's not overly complicated at all. It's saving money to use elsewhere. Like in the draft.

I'd rather they drop 15 million on international free agents and the draft than on Mike Lowell.

HeelSox · Post #12 » by **HeelSox** » Mon Nov 5, 2007 5:08 am

Winning/establishing the future>keeping it simple and not complicating thigns

I don't give two **** if they use a different lineup every night...as long as the end result is the same....a W

bbills1999 · Post #13 » by **bbills1999** » Mon Nov 5, 2007 9:30 pm

Offer Lowell 3 yrs 42(plus incentives) with an option for 15 mill

Post #14 » by **sunshinekids99** » Fri Nov 9, 2007 1:19 pm

Well Lowell has been offered a 3 year contract by the Red Sox. I'm assuming it is a bit on the high side. I could see them adding a option year if Lowell was to keep his game played and production up for the the three years.

VinnyTheMick · Post #15 » by **canman1971** » Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:53 pm

Tonights the night. I think he at the very least goes into free agency. I still see this as a similar situation to the Damon one a few years ago. If he stays, it won't be because the Sox overpay. If he is set on that fourth year, I say he is gone.

And on a side note, I read an interesting article about affording Arod.

As for the money, let