A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project

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A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#1 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Mon Jan 1, 2024 11:36 pm

So this is meant primarily for participants in the Top 100 project(I have quotebombed many project regulars at the bottom of the post), but anyone can chime in.

I compiled this list a while ago of every player who DID NOT make the 2020 list but DID make at least one prior list.

They are divided into two categories - those who made the NBA's top 50 at 50 or 75 at 75 lists, and the rest. I thought this was a worthwhile distinction to make, given those lists - particulary the 50 at 50 - elevated a lot of those guys in "the story of the NBA", especially for those of us who weren't around when they played.

Within each category, the players are listed in ascending order of their most recent placement, and all of their placements are listed in parenthesis.

NBA 50 at 50/75 at 75 Guys
Nate "Tiny" Archibald(74/2014, 75/2011, 69/2008, 61/2006)
Earl "The Pearl" Monroe(74/2008, 88/2006)
Dave Bing(79/2008, 77/2006)
"Pistol" Pete Maravich(81/2008, 62/2006)
Dave DeBusschere(93/2014, 97/2011, 70/2008, 74/2006)
Jerry Lucas(95/2011, 48/2008, 54/2006)
Lenny Wilkins(96/2008, 84/2006)
Bill Sharman(97/2014, 87/2011, 80/2008, 93/2006)

The Rest
Arvydas Sabonis(43/2006)
Dennis Johnson(63/2008, 58/2006)
Anfernee "Penny" Hardaway(65/2011, 90/2008, 90/2006)
Bernard King(70/2014, 63/2011, 72/2008, 65/2006)
David Thompson(74/2011, 95/2008, 75/2006)
George McGinnis(75/2008, 68/2006)
Mark Price(79/2011)
Chris Webber(83/2017, 86/2014, 76/2011, 68/2008, 60/2006)
Drazen Petrovic(85/2006)
Deron Williams(85/2011)
Elton Brand(87/2017, 79/2014, 86/2011)
Mitch Richmond(88/2014, 89/2006)
Maurice Cheeks(89/2017, 83/2014, 100/2006)
Tim Hardaway(91/2017, 94/2011, 100/2008)
Spencer Haywood(91/2008, 78/2006)
Fat Lever(92/2006)
Chris Mullin(94/2014, 96/2011, 85/2008, 80/2006)
Mookie Blaylock(94/2017)
Chet "The Jet" Walker(95/2017)
Shawn Kemp(95/2014, 82/2011, 91/2006)
Neil Johnston(96/2014, 89/2008)
Vlade Divac(97/2017)
Mark Aguirre(97/2008)
Brad Daugherty(98/2011)
Joe Dumars(98/2014, 91/2011, 45/2008, 57/2006)
Connie Hawkins(99/2017, 80/2011, 77/2008, 71/2006)
Bob Dandridge(99/2011, 99/2008)
Mel Daniels(100/2017, 91/2014, 89/2011, 71/2008, 79/2006)
Marques Johnson(100/2014, 61/2011, 98/2006)
Bill Laimbeer(100/2011)

The purpose of this thread is simply to see if any of these guys who have made lists before still have any champions around here. It's probably not time yet for any of these guys to be discussed in the actual project threads, but seeing as we're about to cross #60 and that if any of these guys were to make it, it would be in the 75+ range, we're not all that far away, so I thought this could be a place to start advocating if anyone wants to.

Some of the guys on this list look like one-time flukes, others may have had an argument in the past but maybe don't anymore with the arrival of more recent players, but I like to think a lot of them are still worth discussing. I'll get it started with some players I felt compelled to write about, if not outright champion.

Keep in mind, championing at this point just means advocating for inclusion in the Top 100, not necessarily for any particular numerical placement.

Bill Sharman
Maybe the guy on the above list I see the least argument against.

To start with, he was one of the most efficient perimeter scorers of his era. In his eleven years in the league, he had an average rTS of +4.2 - including four 5+ and six 4+ seasons - and seven 100+ TS Add seasons. There pretty much wasn't a guard that efficient until West and Oscar came along(unless you count Arizin, who according to bbref was a SF). His season-by-season rTS:

+1.3
+2.7
+7.6
+8.9
+5.3
+5.0
+4.6
+3.6
+1.9
+4.3
+1.5

His efficiency was reasonably resilient in the postseason - as you can see below, his playoff TS only trailed his regular season TS by more than three points twice, and topped his regular season TS five times.

46.5/60.3
52.1/47.2
53.1/54.9
50.8/57.2
50.8/48.6
49.5/46.9
48.5/47.2
47.6/50.5
50.6/47.1
48.4/56.4

There is little data available with regards to it, but Sharman's peers - including his teammate Bob Cousy - considered him to be one of the best guard defenders of the era as well.

I'd also like to briefly point out that Sharman's 3.9rpg in the RS and 3.7rpg in the playoffs for his career, topping out at 4.7rpg in the 1958 RS and 5,4rpg in the 1955 playoffs. Those wouldn't normally be impressive rebounding numbers, but Sharman is listed at 6'1'! For him to even grab that many boards given his size is surely indicative of some combination of tenacity and athleticism.

We obviously don't have much to go by for overall impact in those days, but what we can see is that he posted strong WS/48 consistently in both RS and PO:

.148/.262
.201/.071
.202/.208
.150/.170
.157/.142
.207/.164
.189/.175
.154/,194
.198/.150
.169/.257

In 1953 and 1954, on the pre-Russell Celtics, Sharman was #2 on the team in WS/48 both seasons behind Ed Macauley(and ahead of Bob Cousy). Those teams posted 1.94 SRS/+2.5 Net Rtg(53 wins if we pro-rate to an 82-game season) and 1.97 SRS/+2.5 Net Rtg(47 wins if we pro-rate to an 82 game season). So before Russell even got there, Sharman was one of the most important parts of a decent playoff team.

And here is where his WS/48 ranked within the team for the four championship seasons he was a part of:

1957 - #1 RS, #1 PO
1959 - #4 RS, #2 PO
1960 - #2 RS, #4 PO
1961 - #3 RS, #1 PO

Now I probably shouldn't draw any specific conclusions from that, but broadly speaking it indicates that he was one of the most important players on four championship teams.

To sum up, based on the limited data we have, he was consistently one of the most efficient perimeter scorers in the game in his era, by reputation amongst his peers was a high-level perimeter defender, was a decent-to-good rebounder for his size, was one of the main guys on playoff teams before Russell arrived, played important roles on four championship teams(and another that made the Finals), he had decent longevity(especially for the era, eleven seasons without experiencing any significant decline), and was very durable to boot(in his ten years with the Celtics, he played in 680 out of a possible 723 reguar season games, which is 94%, and after missing two playoff games in his first year in Boston, he never missed any again).

Unless you just don't think guys from the 50s should make the Top 100, I really think he ought to make the list, and am not sure what the case against him is.

Chet Walker
If you asked me who the most underappreciated player of the 60s and 70s was, I'd say it was Walker. He was consistently one of the league's best forwards for 13 years and he just never gets his due. He finally made the Top 100 for the first time in 2017 only to fall out again in 2020.

On the 1967 Sixers - often touted as one of the greatest single-season teams ever - he was the second-highest WS/48 on the team after Wilt in both RS and PO - .181 and .201, respectively - and the second-highest TS Add after Wilt - 180.1 - ahead of Hal Greer and Billy Cunningham, both of whom usually get more credit than Walker.

1966-67: 19.3ppg/8.1rpg/2.3apg, 55.7% TS(+6.4 rTS, 180.1 TS Add), .181 WS/48 RS -> 21.7ppg/7.6rpg/2.1apg, 54.6% TS, .201 WS/48 in 15 playoff games

On the 1969 Sixers, after Wilt was gone, Walker was #1 on the team in WS/48 and TS/Add in the regular season on a team that won 55 games and recorded a 4.79 SRS and +4.2 Net Rtg. That team was upset by the Celtics in the first round of the playoffs, but there's no shame in losing to Russell in one of the great last-gasp runs in the history of sports. Walker's individual playoff performance was still solid...he scored fewer points because he got off fewer FGAs, but his efficiency was still where it normally was.

1968-69: 18.0ppg/7.8rpg/1.8apg, 54.8% TS(+5.7 rTS, 155.0 TS Add), .170 WS/48 RS -> 13.5ppg/5.8rpg/2.0apg, 55.9% TS, .132 WS/48 in 4 playoff games

And then he went to Chicago, in Dick Motta's second year there, and was there for six seasons.

No one remembers those Bulls teams because they had the misfortune of playing in the Western Conference in those years and constantly had the Wilt/West Lakers and Kareem/Oscar Bucks in their way.

But Walker was the best player on those teams.

They made the playoffs for six consecutive seasons, going to the WCF in the last two, and getting within a game of the Finals in the last season.

For all six seasons, Walker was #1 on the team in TS Add by a significant margin. In those six seasons, his TS Add was Top 5 in the league twice and Top 10 in the league five times.

69-70 - 143.2(next on team - Bob Love, 82.8), #9 in league
70-71 - 135.7(next on team - Bob Love, 60.3), #11 in league
71-72 - 231.1(next on team - Jim King, 3.7), #3 in league
72-73 - 128.6(next on team - Clifford Ray, 28.1), #7 in league
73-74 - 174.8(next on team - Clifford Ray, 42.8), #5 in league
74-75 - 168.5(next on team - Matt Guokas, 40.4), #7 in league

For five out of six seasons, Walker was #1 on the team in WS/48(the one season he wasn't, he was .004 below #1). In those six seasons, his WS/48 was Top 3 in the league three times, Top 5 4 times, and Top 10 5 times.

69-70 - .172(#10)
70-71 - .178(#11)
71-72 - .268(#2)
72-73 - .213(#3)
73-74 - .191(#5)
74-75 - .205(#3)

I suppose the knock against Walker is that he looked like a playoff faller a bit too often. I concede that his playoff numbers don't look too good from 70-73, but I also caution that those are smaller sample sizes because (for all but one of those years) the Bulls kept running into a Lakers team that just had their number.

And his playoff numbers do look good in 74 and 75 when they went on longer playoff runs. He was #1 on the team in TS/TS Add, WS/48, and BPM in the playoffs in both years, 74 being when they were swept by Kareem and Oscar in the WCF, and 75 being when they lost to the Warriors in 7 in the WCF:

1973-74: 19.3/5.0/2.4, 56.6% TS(+6.3 rTS, 174.8 TS Add), .191 WS/48, 2.6 BPM RS -> 20.9/5.5/1.6, 59.4% TS, .188 WS/48, 3.6 BPM in 11 playoff games
1974-75: 19.2/5.7/2.2, 56.8% TS(+6.6 rTS, 168.5 TS Add), .205 WS/48, 2.5 BPM RS -> 17.5/4.6/1.8, 57.9% TS, 205 WS/48, 3.4 BPM in 13 playoff games

Between those two years and Walker's performance in the 1967 Sixers run, I think he showed up in the playoffs just enough on top of his regular season excellence to warrant a late spot on the list.

One final note - after Walker retired in 1975, the Bulls' 2.88 SRS/+3.1 Net Rtg from 1974-75 - #3/18 in the league on both counts - cratered to -2.89 SRS/-2.9 Net Rtg in 1975-76 - dead last, #18/18 in the league, on both counts. It's true that Jerry Sloan also suffered a knee injury that limited him to just 22 games that season and ended his career, and given that Sloan's WOWY record for that season looks like this:

With Sloan: 8-14(.364)
Without Sloan: 16-44(.266)

that was certainly probaby part of it, but I'm leaning toward the loss of Walker being the primary factor in the drop-off, and I think it's a notable impact signal.


Chris Mullin

I might be biased because he's a guy I grew up watching and I just love his game, but I think prime Mullin is one of the most underappreciated scorers of his era. He wasn't just a shooter, either - at 6'7'/215lbs, he had legit size, he could put the ball on the floor a little, and he was surprisingly crafty/adept at finishing around the rim. He made the Top 100 four times before missing the last two, so I don't think it's too out there to say that I think he deserves to make it back in.

I understand what the arguments against him could/will be - that he lacks longevity as an elite player, that he often didn't seem to lift his team's floor enough, that he didn't have enough playoff success, but I think the argument is there, and I may have gone overboard in articulating it here.

The Five-Year Prime
After having issues with alcohol early in his career, Mullin got sober in 1988, and from 1988-89 until a torn right thumb ligament in February 1993 kicked off a string of injuries and effectively ended his prime, Mullin had a five season run(he played over half the games in 92-93) in which he scored at least 25ppg on at least +4 rTS in each season(the exact rTS are +4.4, +10.6, +8.4, +5.5, and +4.2). I haven't been able to do a comprehensive search, but it seems that not that many players have accomplished that feat, and most of the ones that have have either already been inducted on the 2023 list or were inducted on prior lists.

In 1989, he led the Warriors in WS/48(.165), BPM(4.0), and TS Add(164.0, #12 in the league).
In 1990, he led the Warriors in WS/48(.174), BPM(5.0), and TS Add(322.7, #4 in the league).
In 1991, he led the Warriors in WS/48(.176), BPM(4.7), and TS Add(285.6, #4 in the league).
In 1992, he led the Warriors in WS/48(.155), BPM(3.7), and TS Add(194.2, #7 in the league)
In 1993, when he played 46 games, he slipped a bit - #3 in WS/48(among those who played significant minutes, .122), #2 in BPM(3.3), #1 in TS Add(86.8).

And remember he was playing with Tim Hardaway for four of those seasons and Mitch Richmond for three. It's a very, very good five-year peak. Run TMC is a team remembered for its novelty, and Mullin was their best player, imo(I think Mullin has a better case than Richmond for the Top 100 and probably an equal case with Hardaway, though I'm not as high on Hardaway as others might be).

In addition to the scoring, he also recorded 5+ RPG and 3+ APG in those seasons, and seems to have a reputation as having been a solid man defender, and at the very least box stuff(steals/blocks) supports that.

Playoffs During Prime
Now, the question is the playoffs for those five seasons. I do think the extent to which Mullin might be a playoff faller is overstated. He delivered some great playoff performances during his prime.

1989
WCQF vs Jazz: 32.7ppg/5rpg/5apg/2.0spg on 62.6% TS
Leads the #7 seeded Warriors to an upset 3-0 sweep of the #2 seed, 4.01 SRS/+5.1 Net Rtg Malone/Stockton Jazz

WCSF vs Suns: 27.4ppg/6.4rpg/4.2apg/1.6spg on 60.0% TS
Warriors fall in 5, no shame in losing to that 6.84 SRS 55-win Suns team

1990
The Warriors missed the playoffs by four games, despite it being the first year of Run TMC. Everyone was healthy, so I'm not entirely sure what happened here, besides a glaring lack of rebounding. It seems difficult to blame Mullin for it though, when he put up 25.1ppg/5.9rpg/4.1apg/1.6spg on +10.6 rTS and, as I said before, leading the team in WS/48, BPM, and TS Add.

1991
WCQF vs Spurs: 25.3ppg/7.3rpg/3.5apg/1.8spg/1.3bpg on 62.6% TS
Leads the #7 seeded Warriors to a 3-1 upset over the #2 seed, 4.30 SRS/+4.5 Net Rtg D-Rob Spurs

WCSF vs Lakers: 22.3ppg/7.3rpg/2.3apg/2.0spg/1.8bpg on 61.5% TS
Warriors fall in 5 to Magic and the Finals-bound Lakers, even less shame in losing to them than the 1989 Suns.

(A side note: The Warriors were so deficient on the boards that Mullin's 7.3rpg led the team in the playoffs.)

1992
WCQF vs Sonics: 17.8ppg/3.0rpg/3.0apg/1.3spg on 51.3% TS
A poorer showing vs the Sonics, to be sure, in a 3-1 defeat.

1993
The Warriors missed the playoffs after Mullin only played 46 games.

1994
WCQF vs Suns: 25.3ppg/4.7rpg/3.7apg/1.7bpg on 68.1% TS
After missing the end of 92-93 and the beginning 93-94, Mullin helps Sprewell and Webber to 50 wins and, in his last playoff hurrah as a star, has a big series vs the #3 seeded Barkley Suns that were coming off a Finals appearance. His stellar performance wasn't enough to prevent a sweep.

So Mullin played in 24 playoff games between 1989 and 1994 and, while the team had limited success, he was putting up superstar box statlines for the bulk of it, and in fact led them to two playoff upsets vs fellow Dream Teamers Malone/Stockton and Robinson and also put up a monster statline against fellow dream teamer Barkley in a series loss. It's not as much as you might like to see, but it is something.

There is the question of why the Warriors were always playing from a lower seed, why wasn't their floor being raised higher, but as I alluded to before, I don't think it's fair to pin it on Mullin when the roster the front office constructed had such glaring rebounding and defensive deficiencies and also when they're making questionable trades like Richmond for Owens after the 91 playoffs.

Injury Plagued Years
So anyway, 1993-1996 was an injury-plagued time for Mullin, and the team missed the playoffs three out of four of those seasons, but here are the WOWY breakdowns for those seasons:

92-93(torn right thumb ligament)
20-26(.435) with
14-22(.389) without

93-94(torn ligament in fifth finger on right hand)

39-23(.629) with
11-9(.550) without

Also worth noting that Mullin had a +2.1 on/off in 93-94(via Pollack), which took a dive in 95 and 96(due to his further injuries and the fact that the team just got bad after Webber was traded).

94-95(chip fracture/sprained ligament left knee/sprained left hamstring, and then bruised left ankle)
8-17(.320) with
18-39(.316) without

95-96
24-31(.436) with
12-15(.444) without

I haven't done a deep dive into who else might've been in/out at various times that could've effected the outcomes(other than knowing Hardaway missed all of 93-94), but on the surface it looks like they were marginally better with him as he declined, with that margin shrinking as time went on and his injuries took their toll(also as the team around him got worse).

Last Year With The Warriors

Mullins last season with the Warriors - 1996-97 - was his healthiest season since 1991-92, and signaled the beginning of a late stretch of his career in which he'd re-invent himself as a role player.

He recorded 14.5ppg/4.0rpg/4.1apg/1.6spg, but even though Sprewell and Joe Smith scored on more volume, Mullin was much more efficient and ended up leading the team in TS Add(194.2), WS/48(.124), and BPM(2.8), and shot 41.1% 3P. This may not be saying much, because that Warriors team simply wasn't good, but it does show that Mullin was still a positive contributor at the point despite the diminished role.

Pacers Years
Mullin was dealt to the Pacers in the summer of 1997.

In his first season there - 1997-98 - he played and started all 82 games. Because he was in a smaller role, playing only 26.5mpg, and taking far fewer FGAs than in his prime, his counting stats took a hit - 11.3ppg/3.0rpg/2.3apg/1.2spg - but he shot 44% from 3 and was still #2 on the team - behind Reggie Miller - in TS Add(126.8), WS/48(.168), and BPM(4.3), and #4 on the team in points per 100 possessions(23.3) with a +7.8 on/off on a 6.25 SRS 58-win team.

In the playoffs, he looked like an elite role player for the first two rounds before having a poor shooting series vs the Bulls.

ECQF vs Cavs: 10.5ppg/4.0rpg/1.0apg/1.0spg/1.8bpg on 76.9% TS in 3-1 win
ECSF vs Knicks: 11.0ppg/3.4rpg/2.4apg/1.8spg on 56.7% TS in 4-1 win
ECF vs Bulls: 6.4ppg/3.4rpg/1.0apg on 48.5% TS in 3-4 loss

He had a 3.3 BPM and a -3.3 on/off(looks like that Bulls series really hurt him on that front - credit to Scottie I guess) for the playoffs.

In the lockout-shortened 1999 season, Mullin played and started all 50 games. He put up 10.1ppg/3.2rpg/1.6apg and shot 46.5% from 3 while leading the team in BPM(4.5), and being #2 behind Reggie in TS Add(86.1) and WS/48(.167) with a +5.6 on/off on a 3.86 SRS team that was in a three-way tie for the league's fourth best record.

Similar to 1998, he looked like a very good player in the 1999 playoffs.

ECQF vs Bucks: 11.3ppg/1.3rpg on 63.2% TS in 3-0 sweep
ECSF vs 7ers: 10.0ppg/1.3rpg/1.3apg/1.3spg on 54.8% TS in 4-0 sweep
ECF vs Knicks: 8.3ppg/1.8rpg/1.3apg on 53.5% TS in 2-4 loss

He had a 1.6 BPM and a +2.5 on/off for the playoffs.

He was replaced in the starting lineup with Jalen Rose for 1999-00 and played much less, and hardly at all in their run to the finals(10mpg), and his counting stats are pretty small, but his advanced box stats and on/off speak well of his impact in limited minutes.

.142 WS/48, 3.4 BPM, 59% TS(+6.7 rTS and 40.9% 3P), +2.6 on/off in 12.4mpg in 47 games
.148 WS/48, 3.6 BPM, 60% TS, +5.6 on/off in 10.0mpg in 9 playoff games

He played one more best-forgotten year with the Warriors after that, and that was it.

Conclusion
Mullin had a five-year prime where he was one of the league's elite scorers(again - five consecutive seasons of 25+ppg and 4+ rTS) and solid rebounder to boot, and he put up some superstar playoff performances upsetting higher-seeded teams, even if his own team never got past the second round.

After a string of injury-plagued seasons, he became a high-level role player for the late 90s Pacers. I do think this adds real value to his career, especially in light of certain other players who maybe don't accept a lesser role as gracefully in their later years.

There are reasons to argue against him, but there are players that made the last Top 100 that, like Mullin, are primarily known as volume scorers, but did so much less efficiently while not having much more in the way of playoff success - I'm thinking of Carmelo Anthony here, as well as Dominique. Those two had one 100+ TS Add season each, while Mullin has six(and it would've been seven if he hadn't gotten hurt in 92-93). Like Mullin, Dominique never got past the second round as an alpha, and Melo only did it once in a season where Chauncey Billups was arguably the better player. Melo and Dominique have alpha longevity over Mullin, but the efficiency gap is pretty big.

As a final note - Mullin was on The Dream Team, and there have always been people that say it should've been Dominique(even though he wouldn't have been able to play anyway due to his achilles injury), but I firmly believe it was the right choice, both because of the fit(Mullin could play off-ball and the team needed that release valve guy) and because Mullin was dramatically more efficient in 1990-91 when the selections were being made.

I really think Mullin deserves a spot, and if he doesn't get in, he'd be the only Dream Teamer other than Laettner to miss the cut.

Chris Webber
I'm thinking C-Webb, if and when he gets into the nomination discussion, could be one of the more polarizing and contentious figures in the project. The 2020 Top 100 was the first Top 100 on this board that Webber didn't make, so there has been enough support for him in the past. On the other hand, I know from experience that some of the people who wouldn't support him for the list really don't care for him.

I was pretty bullish for him when I started looking, and I still think there's an argument, but by the end of my research, I was less bullish. I'll just lay out both sides.

The argument FOR:

One of the criticisms often leveled about Webber is that he is overrated as a volume scorer because his efficiency leaves something to be desired. I don't dispute this, but I will say that while his efficiency leaves something to be desired, it's not terrible. In his prime years, it was usually hovering at either just above or just below league average. But the crux of my argument is that he did a bunch of other things besides scoring.

He always had the reputation of being one of the best passing big men in the game, and the numbers bare that out. These are his league ranks in assists per 100 possessions among PFs and Cs:

1994 - #7
1995 - #1
1996 - #2
1997 - #4
1998 - #6(4-way tie)
1999 - #8
2000 - #2
2001 - #4
2002 - #2
2003 - #3
2004 - #6 in 23 games
2005 - #3
2006 - #11(tie)
2007 - #4
2008 - #1 in 9 games

I would also posit that, while he was never an elite defender or anything, he was a solid, underrated defender pre-knee-injury based on D-RAPM(that wasn't the case after the injury except for the small sample size of 03-04):

97: 1.62
98: 2.04
99: 2.00
00: 0.23
01: 2.40
02: 1.66
03: 1.60
04: 1.36

He was also a consistently good, though not necessarily great, rebounder, posting 11+ RPG twice, 10+ RPG six times, and 9+ RPG twelve times in his career.

So he was scoring at high volume on what would charitably be described as league average-ish efficiency, while also providing good production as a playmaker, defender, and rebounder. He was a very, very good all around basketball player, and there are lot of people that fully believe he would've been the #1 on a championship team were it not for some shady officiating in 2002.

The argument AGAINST

So it isn't hard to predict the arguments against, and the thing that tempered my enthusiasm wasn't his (lack of) efficiency, or his anti-clutch reputation. It was the following.

2001-02(Webber played 54 games)
43-11(.796) with
18-10 (.643) without

2002-03(Webber played 67 games)
49-18(.731) with
10-5(.667) without

2003-04(Webber played 23 games)
11-12(.478) with
44-15(.746) without

So while the Kings were better with him in both 02 and 03, they were still plenty good without him, and the without sample in 2002 isn't insignificant either.

Further, when Webber missed most of 03-04, they didn't seem to miss a beat. They did go from 6.68 SRS/+6.8 Net Rtg to 5.41 SRS/+5.4 Net Rtg, but you would've expected Webber's absence to hurt more.

And who did they replace his production with? They traded bench depth in Hedo Turkoglu and Scot Pollard for Brad Miller, who in 2003-04, recorded the following: 14.1ppg/10.3rpg/4.3apg on +6.3 rTS, 2.48 RAPM.

Anyone who is down on Webber would pose the question - if he can apparently be so easily replaced with Brad Miller, is he really a Top 100 guy?

The counter might be - because they were a stacked and unselfish team with a deep bench(i.e. pieces they could move for another starter) and a HOF coach, they were uniquely set up to absorb the loss of a star player. But that's admittedly the view of someone who wants to see it in the best light.

Add the fact that in the five years they played together before Webber's injury, Vlade Divac had a higher RAPM four times(5.83 vs 3.38 1999, 5.85 vs 1.85 2000, 3.49 vs 2.83 2002, 3.49 vs 2.63 2003), and that Doug Christie and Scot Pollard both had higher RAPMs than Webber in 2002-03(3.79 and 3.26 vs 2.63), it doesn't paint the most flattering impact portrait in the world.

(Though to be fair, as a counter, his on/off is solid if a bit inconsistant in the playoffs. From 1996-97 until 2002-03(the year he was injured), he had a positive on/off every regular season but one. In the playoffs, he had crazy highs - +31.6 in 2001, +23.3 in 1997 with the Bullets - and crazy lows - -22.6 in 1999. Less extremely, he had a +10.9 in 2003 and +0.1 in 2000, as well as a -1.9 in 2002.)

Still, I think you can argue for Webber over some of the guys that made the back end of the 2020 list.

Connie Hawkins
So, I don't feel too strongly about Connie Hawkins either way, but I know there are some here that do, and I do feel like he should be discussed at least. His is one of the more unfair stories in the league's history, having been blackballed from the NBA for something he didn't do and thus not getting to play for what would've been a number of his prime years. And then on the other end, injuries cut his prime short.

And so it's the Bill Walton question - are one or two transcendent years enough on their own to earn a spot?

The question is even tougher here than with Walton because Walton's incredible and brief peak came in the NBA, whereas Hawkins' came not just in the ABA, but the early ABA - in fact, the first two years of the ABA.

Is

26.8ppg/13.5rpg/4.6apg, 59.7% TS(+11.4 rTS), .273 WS/48 in 44.9mpg RS

and

29.9ppg/12.3rpg/4.6apg, 65.1% TS, .310 WS/48 in 44mpg in the playoffs vs the Pacers(Roger Brown/Freddie Lewis/Bob Netolicky), Minnesota Muskies(Mel Daniels/Les Hunter), and New Orleans Buccaneers(Doug Moe/Jimmy Jones/Red Robbins)

enough?

I don't have an answer, but it's worth discussing.

Tiny Archibald
Tiny is a tough question for me. There's no question he had 2-3 impressive statistical seasons with the Royals/Kings. But in six years, they made the playoffs once, lost their lone playoff series, and Tiny shot poorly in that series - 20.2ppg/5.3apg on 44.2% TS, over ten percent lower than his RS TS of 54.4%.

I do understand that his rosters were fairly lousy, so perhaps this is just a case of Tiny being of one of the league's first cases of 'great player stuck on a bad team'.

TBH though, I'm not sure that I'd see any argument at all if it weren't for the added value of his Boston years, 1980 and 1981 in particular, and his contributions to that 1981 championship - he was a full-time starter playing 35+mpg, and he put up 13.8ppg/7.7apg on +4.8 rTS in the regular season(and similar numbers in the playoffs, though less efficiently).

Jerry Lucas
I don't anticipate Lucas having much Top 100 support here. He was never an alpha, but he was an efficient scorer and an elite rebounder, with good durability, reasonable longevity, and high intelligence. He just never had much in the way of playoff success until he won a ring with the Knicks as a role player near the end of his career, and 1960s pace inflation might make his box numbers look bigger than they were. I don't know that I feel too strongly about him, but I can see the argument.

Shawn Kemp
I'm honestly pretty high on Kemp's prime - say 1992-1997 - relatively speaking. He was a legit two-way force, an efficient scorer, explosive finisher, good defender, good rebounder, freak athlete. The 1994 and 1995 playoff collapses hurt, but his individual numbers in the 1995 playoffs - 24.8ppg/12.0rpg/2.8apg/2.0spg/1.8bpg on 66.7% TS, .260 WS/48, 7.4 BPM over four games - look very good(not so much in 1994). The knock on Kemp has always been the way he declined, the perception that he just stopped giving a crap, even if there may have been a legitimate drug addiction involved.

I could be swayed either way, but I do think highly of prime Kemp as a guy who who was a 1A or 1B(depending on your view) on a Finals team and had seven consecutive years of positive TS Add, four consecutive years of 100+ TS Add, and was at least one of the defensive anchors during a five-year run from 92-93 to 96-97 in which the Sonics had rel DRtgs of -3.1, -4.8, -2.0, -5.5, and -4.0 before dropping to -1.4 their first year without Kemp(97-98) and then not having an above league-average defense for the remainder of their time in Seattle. In five seasons from 92-93 to 96-97, he averaged 18.6ppg/10.8rpg/2.1apg/1.4spg/1.6bpg on +5.6 rTS while being imo a big factor in the aforementioned team defenses. If that prime had lasted ten seasons instead of five, I don't think it would even be a discussion whether or not he should be in the Top 100.

Bernard King
Sort of similar to to Mullin in that both had five-year primes in which they were elite volume scorers. Some are very high on King, and I can see the argument, but for me, Mullin's post-prime holds more value than King's, having contributed so positively for those Pacers teams. King made a remarkable comeback from his ACL injury at a time when that didn't happen, and scored on high volume again with the Bullets, but his efficiency was way down and those Bullets teams didn't make the playoffs for three out of the four years he was there.

Who wouldn't make the list, then?
If I'm going to argue for players who didn't make the list last time, then I feel it's only fair to think about who would have to get the boot to make room. I won't go into too much detail yet, or make any definitive "he shouldn't get in" statements, but some broad thoughts...

I mentioned Melo and Dominique before as volume scorers who aren't especially efficient and who don't have a lot of team success in the playoffs. It's hard to imagine Dominique not getting in(he's never not made it), but I do think at the very least Sharman impacted winning basketball more(just one stat, but Sharman has a career .178 WS/48 RS and .174 WS/48 PO, as compared to .148 and .079 for Dominique and .120 and .089 for Melo), and the numbers show Mullin as a much more efficient scorer too.

Horace Grant certainly has his merits, but I have to squint to see the argument for him over Sharman and even Walker did more as a #1 on those 70s Bulls teams than Horace ever did(obviously, he was never asked to be a #1 or even #2), and that pains me to say because as a lifelong Bulls fan, Horace is one of my guys, man, I love him. I'm not even sure he should go over Webber, and while longevity is an issue, peak Kemp over peak Grant seems pretty easy.

Guys like Jeff Hornacek and Terry Porter have good numbers and longevity, but in their time they were seen as supporting players, and it's worth questioning if they should get in over alphas(in their prime) like Kemp or Mullin or a guy like Sharman who objectively won more.

Dame got in last time - keeping with my caution with regards to inducting active players, has he done enough to go over some of these guys?

Just a few examples of guys you could argue against, but I'll stop now, because this post is already too long.

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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#2 » by AEnigma » Tue Jan 2, 2024 12:15 am

Good idea for a discussion, and I like your more thorough write-ups.

Nate "Tiny" Archibald(74/2014, 75/2011, 69/2008, 61/2006)
Not for me.

Earl "The Pearl" Monroe(74/2008, 88/2006)
I want to, but the career length is probably a hurdle I could not look past.

Dave Bing(79/2008, 77/2006)
No.

"Pistol" Pete Maravich(81/2008, 62/2006)
No.

Dave DeBusschere(93/2014, 97/2011, 70/2008, 74/2006)
Not impressed enough by what he did outside the Knicks, but could be swayed to list him on the fringes.

Jerry Lucas(95/2011, 48/2008, 54/2006)
Nah.

Lenny Wilkins(96/2008, 84/2006)
Fringe-y but probably been passed by.

Bill Sharman(97/2014, 87/2011, 80/2008, 93/2006)
You make a fair case. I have him on the fringe. Good shooter, mixed on everything else.

Arvydas Sabonis(43/2006)
No.

Dennis Johnson(63/2008, 58/2006)
Has it been that long? I might make a push, always majorly impressed by his defence, and he was a strong presence on a lot of elite teams.

Anfernee "Penny" Hardaway(65/2011, 90/2008, 90/2006)
Major what-if; declined too rapidly after his fourth year.

Bernard King(70/2014, 63/2011, 72/2008, 65/2006)
No, another peak case rather than career case.

David Thompson(74/2011, 95/2008, 75/2006)
Probably too short a prime for me.

George McGinnis(75/2008, 68/2006)
Fun peak but no.

Mark Price(79/2011)
Too injured.

Chris Webber(83/2017, 86/2014, 76/2011, 68/2008, 60/2006)
I am disinclined, although you make a decent enough case, and I can see him as a fringe option.

Drazen Petrovic(85/2006)
No.

Deron Williams(85/2011)
Respect his peak, but we are really talking maybe six years of true relevance.

Elton Brand(87/2017, 79/2014, 86/2011)
An interesting player, but another guy I like more for his peak.

Mitch Richmond(88/2014, 89/2006)
Never accomplished much, and many players have passed him by.

Maurice Cheeks(89/2017, 83/2014, 100/2006)
No, also never really a star.

Tim Hardaway(91/2017, 94/2011, 100/2008)
Looks less special as time goes by, and I think a lot of Miami’s postseason failings are attributable to him.

Spencer Haywood(91/2008, 78/2006)
Compelling story, but too many other power forwards and centres l.

Fat Lever(92/2006)
Love him but no.

Chris Mullin(94/2014, 96/2011, 85/2008, 80/2006)
Yeah, think he deserves it.

Mookie Blaylock(94/2017)
In 2017 I think this was fair, but too many have passed him by.

Chet "The Jet" Walker(95/2017)
Absolutely.

Shawn Kemp(95/2014, 82/2011, 91/2006)
Too short a prime, not overly impressed by his peak.

Neil Johnston(96/2014, 89/2008)
No strong opinions but always a matter of weighing sense of quality against league relative status.

Vlade Divac(97/2017)
Fringe top 100. Consistently strong impact, although very low peak.

Mark Aguirre(97/2008)
No, not relevant for long enough.

Brad Daugherty(98/2011)
No, too short a career.

Joe Dumars(98/2014, 91/2011, 45/2008, 57/2006)
Maybe? Solid career, but never much of a star. Makes for an interesting comparison with Klay and Hornacek.

Connie Hawkins(99/2017, 80/2011, 77/2008, 71/2006)
Much too short a prime for me.

Bob Dandridge(99/2011, 99/2008)
Okay with him as a fringe candidate. Decent prime length, was a key contributor on two separate champions and something of a co-lead on the Bullets…

Mel Daniels(100/2017, 91/2014, 89/2011, 71/2008, 79/2006)
Always okay with him as a fringe candidate, kind-of in the Bill Walton sense. However, I do not think he was much of a standout outside of the context of the early ABA.

Marques Johnson(100/2014, 61/2011, 98/2006)
Like him, but longevity is lacking.

Bill Laimbeer(100/2011)
In the Vlade/Sikma range. Similarly capped by an underwhelming peak.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#3 » by penbeast0 » Tue Jan 2, 2024 1:16 am

I think the inclusion of new stars has pushed a lot of the fringe guys out. Of those mentioned, there has been more focus on defensive impact this time, that would be good for DeBusschere who might fall in the Nate Thurmond type category albeit a level down. Sharman probably should be the 1st guy in of all those mentioned. Marginal guys: Chet Walker, Marques Johnson, Chris Mullin, Chris Webber, don't see any of the others making it though I've been one pushing Mel Daniels in the past but I just think he's slid down into the 101-125 range.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#4 » by trelos6 » Tue Jan 2, 2024 4:02 am

First of all, great post OldSchoolNoBull.

I'll quickly say where I have each player in my rankings.

Bill Sharman - just outside the top 100
Chet walker - around 110
Chris Mullin - one spot ahead of Chet
Chris Webber - 90th
Connie Hawkins - 85th
Tiny Archibald - 125th
Jerry Lucas - 74th
Shawn Kemp - 80th
Bernard King - 126th

Other guys I have outside top 100

Earl Monroe
Dave Bing
Pete Maravich
Dave DeBusschere (101, one ahead of Sharman)
Lenny Wilkens
Dennis Johnson
Arvydas Sabonis
Elton Brand
Joe Dumars
Mel Daniels
Penny Hardaway
David Thompson
George McGinnis
Mark Price
Drazen Petrovic
Deron Williams
Mitch Richmond
Spencer Haywood
Fat Lever
Mark Aguirre
Brad Daugherty
Bob Dandridge
Bill Laimbeer
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#5 » by homecourtloss » Tue Jan 2, 2024 2:32 pm

penbeast0 wrote:I think the inclusion of new stars has pushed a lot of the fringe guys out. Of those mentioned, there has been more focus on defensive impact this time, that would be good for DeBusschere who might fall in the Nate Thurmond type category albeit a level down. Sharman probably should be the 1st guy in of all those mentioned. Marginal guys: Chet Walker, Marques Johnson, Chris Mullin, Chris Webber, don't see any of the others making it though I've been one pushing Mel Daniels in the past but I just think he's slid down into the 101-125 range.


By my count, there are already 19 players on this year’s list that weren’t on the 2006 list, and then there were 12 others who were on the 2020 list that weren’t on the 2006 list.

By the time we get around do doing this again in 2026, getting into the top 75 will be like getting into the top 50 in 2006.

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
Spoiler:
So this is meant primarily for participants in the Top 100 project(I have quotebombed many project regulars at the bottom of the post), but anyone can chime in.

I compiled this list a while ago of every player who DID NOT make the 2020 list but DID make at least one prior list.

They are divided into two categories - those who made the NBA's top 50 at 50 or 75 at 75 lists, and the rest. I thought this was a worthwhile distinction to make, given those lists - particulary the 50 at 50 - elevated a lot of those guys in "the story of the NBA", especially for those of us who weren't around when they played.

Within each category, the players are listed in ascending order of their most recent placement, and all of their placements are listed in parenthesis.

NBA 50 at 50/75 at 75 Guys
Nate "Tiny" Archibald(74/2014, 75/2011, 69/2008, 61/2006)
Earl "The Pearl" Monroe(74/2008, 88/2006)
Dave Bing(79/2008, 77/2006)
"Pistol" Pete Maravich(81/2008, 62/2006)
Dave DeBusschere(93/2014, 97/2011, 70/2008, 74/2006)
Jerry Lucas(95/2011, 48/2008, 54/2006)
Lenny Wilkins(96/2008, 84/2006)
Bill Sharman(97/2014, 87/2011, 80/2008, 93/2006)

The Rest
Arvydas Sabonis(43/2006)
Dennis Johnson(63/2008, 58/2006)
Anfernee "Penny" Hardaway(65/2011, 90/2008, 90/2006)
Bernard King(70/2014, 63/2011, 72/2008, 65/2006)
David Thompson(74/2011, 95/2008, 75/2006)
George McGinnis(75/2008, 68/2006)
Mark Price(79/2011)
Chris Webber(83/2017, 86/2014, 76/2011, 68/2008, 60/2006)
Drazen Petrovic(85/2006)
Deron Williams(85/2011)
Elton Brand(87/2017, 79/2014, 86/2011)
Mitch Richmond(88/2014, 89/2006)
Maurice Cheeks(89/2017, 83/2014, 100/2006)
Tim Hardaway(91/2017, 94/2011, 100/2008)
Spencer Haywood(91/2008, 78/2006)
Fat Lever(92/2006)
Chris Mullin(94/2014, 96/2011, 85/2008, 80/2006)
Mookie Blaylock(94/2017)
Chet "The Jet" Walker(95/2017)
Shawn Kemp(95/2014, 82/2011, 91/2006)
Neil Johnston(96/2014, 89/2008)
Vlade Divac(97/2017)
Mark Aguirre(97/2008)
Brad Daugherty(98/2011)
Joe Dumars(98/2014, 91/2011, 45/2008, 57/2006)
Connie Hawkins(99/2017, 80/2011, 77/2008, 71/2006)
Bob Dandridge(99/2011, 99/2008)
Mel Daniels(100/2017, 91/2014, 89/2011, 71/2008, 79/2006)
Marques Johnson(100/2014, 61/2011, 98/2006)
Bill Laimbeer(100/2011)

The purpose of this thread is simply to see if any of these guys who have made lists before still have any champions around here. It's probably not time yet for any of these guys to be discussed in the actual project threads, but seeing as we're about to cross #60 and that if any of these guys were to make it, it would be in the 75+ range, we're not all that far away, so I thought this could be a place to start advocating if anyone wants to.

Some of the guys on this list look like one-time flukes, others may have had an argument in the past but maybe don't anymore with the arrival of more recent players, but I like to think a lot of them are still worth discussing. I'll get it started with some players I felt compelled to write about, if not outright champion.

Keep in mind, championing at this point just means advocating for inclusion in the Top 100, not necessarily for any particular numerical placement.

Bill Sharman
Maybe the guy on the above list I see the least argument against.

To start with, he was one of the most efficient perimeter scorers of his era. In his eleven years in the league, he had an average rTS of +4.2 - including four 5+ and six 4+ seasons - and seven 100+ TS Add seasons. There pretty much wasn't a guard that efficient until West and Oscar came along(unless you count Arizin, who according to bbref was a SF). His season-by-season rTS:

+1.3
+2.7
+7.6
+8.9
+5.3
+5.0
+4.6
+3.6
+1.9
+4.3
+1.5

His efficiency was reasonably resilient in the postseason - as you can see below, his playoff TS only trailed his regular season TS by more than three points twice, and topped his regular season TS five times.

46.5/60.3
52.1/47.2
53.1/54.9
50.8/57.2
50.8/48.6
49.5/46.9
48.5/47.2
47.6/50.5
50.6/47.1
48.4/56.4

There is little data available with regards to it, but Sharman's peers - including his teammate Bob Cousy - considered him to be one of the best guard defenders of the era as well.

I'd also like to briefly point out that Sharman's 3.9rpg in the RS and 3.7rpg in the playoffs for his career, topping out at 4.7rpg in the 1958 RS and 5,4rpg in the 1955 playoffs. Those wouldn't normally be impressive rebounding numbers, but Sharman is listed at 6'1'! For him to even grab that many boards given his size is surely indicative of some combination of tenacity and athleticism.

We obviously don't have much to go by for overall impact in those days, but what we can see is that he posted strong WS/48 consistently in both RS and PO:

.148/.262
.201/.071
.202/.208
.150/.170
.157/.142
.207/.164
.189/.175
.154/,194
.198/.150
.169/.257

In 1953 and 1954, on the pre-Russell Celtics, Sharman was #2 on the team in WS/48 both seasons behind Ed Macauley(and ahead of Bob Cousy). Those teams posted 1.94 SRS/+2.5 Net Rtg(53 wins if we pro-rate to an 82-game season) and 1.97 SRS/+2.5 Net Rtg(47 wins if we pro-rate to an 82 game season). So before Russell even got there, Sharman was one of the most important parts of a decent playoff team.

And here is where his WS/48 ranked within the team for the four championship seasons he was a part of:

1957 - #1 RS, #1 PO
1959 - #4 RS, #2 PO
1960 - #2 RS, #4 PO
1961 - #3 RS, #1 PO

Now I probably shouldn't draw any specific conclusions from that, but broadly speaking it indicates that he was one of the most important players on four championship teams.

To sum up, based on the limited data we have, he was consistently one of the most efficient perimeter scorers in the game in his era, by reputation amongst his peers was a high-level perimeter defender, was a decent-to-good rebounder for his size, was one of the main guys on playoff teams before Russell arrived, played important roles on four championship teams(and another that made the Finals), he had decent longevity(especially for the era, eleven seasons without experiencing any significant decline), and was very durable to boot(in his ten years with the Celtics, he played in 680 out of a possible 723 reguar season games, which is 94%, and after missing two playoff games in his first year in Boston, he never missed any again).

Unless you just don't think guys from the 50s should make the Top 100, I really think he ought to make the list, and am not sure what the case against him is.

Chet Walker
If you asked me who the most underappreciated player of the 60s and 70s was, I'd say it was Walker. He was consistently one of the league's best forwards for 13 years and he just never gets his due. He finally made the Top 100 for the first time in 2017 only to fall out again in 2020.

On the 1967 Sixers - often touted as one of the greatest single-season teams ever - he was the second-highest WS/48 on the team after Wilt in both RS and PO - .181 and .201, respectively - and the second-highest TS Add after Wilt - 180.1 - ahead of Hal Greer and Billy Cunningham, both of whom usually get more credit than Walker.

1966-67: 19.3ppg/8.1rpg/2.3apg, 55.7% TS(+6.4 rTS, 180.1 TS Add), .181 WS/48 RS -> 21.7ppg/7.6rpg/2.1apg, 54.6% TS, .201 WS/48 in 15 playoff games

On the 1969 Sixers, after Wilt was gone, Walker was #1 on the team in WS/48 and TS/Add in the regular season on a team that won 55 games and recorded a 4.79 SRS and +4.2 Net Rtg. That team was upset by the Celtics in the first round of the playoffs, but there's no shame in losing to Russell in one of the great last-gasp runs in the history of sports. Walker's individual playoff performance was still solid...he scored fewer points because he got off fewer FGAs, but his efficiency was still where it normally was.

1968-69: 18.0ppg/7.8rpg/1.8apg, 54.8% TS(+5.7 rTS, 155.0 TS Add), .170 WS/48 RS -> 13.5ppg/5.8rpg/2.0apg, 55.9% TS, .132 WS/48 in 4 playoff games

And then he went to Chicago, in Dick Motta's second year there, and was there for six seasons.

No one remembers those Bulls teams because they had the misfortune of playing in the Western Conference in those years and constantly had the Wilt/West Lakers and Kareem/Oscar Bucks in their way.

But Walker was the best player on those teams.

They made the playoffs for six consecutive seasons, going to the WCF in the last two, and getting within a game of the Finals in the last season.

For all six seasons, Walker was #1 on the team in TS Add by a significant margin. In those six seasons, his TS Add was Top 5 in the league twice and Top 10 in the league five times.

<a href="tel:69-70 - 143.2">69-70 - 143.2</a>(next on team - Bob Love, 82.8), #9 in league
<a href="tel:70-71 - 135.7">70-71 - 135.7</a>(next on team - Bob Love, 60.3), #11 in league
<a href="tel:71-72 - 231.1">71-72 - 231.1</a>(next on team - Jim King, 3.7), #3 in league
<a href="tel:72-73 - 128.6">72-73 - 128.6</a>(next on team - Clifford Ray, 28.1), #7 in league
<a href="tel:73-74 - 174.8">73-74 - 174.8</a>(next on team - Clifford Ray, 42.8), #5 in league
<a href="tel:74-75 - 168.5">74-75 - 168.5</a>(next on team - Matt Guokas, 40.4), #7 in league

For five out of six seasons, Walker was #1 on the team in WS/48(the one season he wasn't, he was .004 below #1). In those six seasons, his WS/48 was Top 3 in the league three times, Top 5 4 times, and Top 10 5 times.

69-70 - .172(#10)
70-71 - .178(#11)
71-72 - .268(#2)
72-73 - .213(#3)
73-74 - .191(#5)
74-75 - .205(#3)

I suppose the knock against Walker is that he looked like a playoff faller a bit too often. I concede that his playoff numbers don't look too good from 70-73, but I also caution that those are smaller sample sizes because (for all but one of those years) the Bulls kept running into a Lakers team that just had their number.

And his playoff numbers do look good in 74 and 75 when they went on longer playoff runs. He was #1 on the team in TS/TS Add, WS/48, and BPM in the playoffs in both years, 74 being when they were swept by Kareem and Oscar in the WCF, and 75 being when they lost to the Warriors in 7 in the WCF:

1973-74: 19.3/5.0/2.4, 56.6% TS(+6.3 rTS, 174.8 TS Add), .191 WS/48, 2.6 BPM RS -> 20.9/5.5/1.6, 59.4% TS, .188 WS/48, 3.6 BPM in 11 playoff games
1974-75: 19.2/5.7/2.2, 56.8% TS(+6.6 rTS, 168.5 TS Add), .205 WS/48, 2.5 BPM RS -> 17.5/4.6/1.8, 57.9% TS, 205 WS/48, 3.4 BPM in 13 playoff games

Between those two years and Walker's performance in the 1967 Sixers run, I think he showed up in the playoffs just enough on top of his regular season excellence to warrant a late spot on the list.

One final note - after Walker retired in 1975, the Bulls' 2.88 SRS/+3.1 Net Rtg from 1974-75 - #3/18 in the league on both counts - cratered to -2.89 SRS/-2.9 Net Rtg in 1975-76 - dead last, #18/18 in the league, on both counts. It's true that Jerry Sloan also suffered a knee injury that limited him to just 22 games that season and ended his career, and given that Sloan's WOWY record for that season looks like this:

With Sloan: 8-14(.364)
Without Sloan: 16-44(.266)

that was certainly probaby part of it, but I'm leaning toward the loss of Walker being the primary factor in the drop-off, and I think it's a notable impact signal.


Chris Mullin

I might be biased because he's a guy I grew up watching and I just love his game, but I think prime Mullin is one of the most underappreciated scorers of his era. He wasn't just a shooter, either - at 6'7'/215lbs, he had legit size, he could put the ball on the floor a little, and he was surprisingly crafty/adept at finishing around the rim. He made the Top 100 four times before missing the last two, so I don't think it's too out there to say that I think he deserves to make it back in.

I understand what the arguments against him could/will be - that he lacks longevity as an elite player, that he often didn't seem to lift his team's floor enough, that he didn't have enough playoff success, but I think the argument is there, and I may have gone overboard in articulating it here.

The Five-Year Prime
After having issues with alcohol early in his career, Mullin got sober in 1988, and from 1988-89 until a torn right thumb ligament in February 1993 kicked off a string of injuries and effectively ended his prime, Mullin had a five season run(he played over half the games in 92-93) in which he scored at least 25ppg on at least +4 rTS in each season(the exact rTS are +4.4, +10.6, +8.4, +5.5, and +4.2). I haven't been able to do a comprehensive search, but it seems that not that many players have accomplished that feat, and most of the ones that have have either already been inducted on the 2023 list or were inducted on prior lists.

In 1989, he led the Warriors in WS/48(.165), BPM(4.0), and TS Add(164.0, #12 in the league).
In 1990, he led the Warriors in WS/48(.174), BPM(5.0), and TS Add(322.7, #4 in the league).
In 1991, he led the Warriors in WS/48(.176), BPM(4.7), and TS Add(285.6, #4 in the league).
In 1992, he led the Warriors in WS/48(.155), BPM(3.7), and TS Add(194.2, #7 in the league)
In 1993, when he played 46 games, he slipped a bit - #3 in WS/48(among those who played significant minutes, .122), #2 in BPM(3.3), #1 in TS Add(86.8).

And remember he was playing with Tim Hardaway for four of those seasons and Mitch Richmond for three. It's a very, very good five-year peak. Run TMC is a team remembered for its novelty, and Mullin was their best player, imo(I think Mullin has a better case than Richmond for the Top 100 and probably an equal case with Hardaway, though I'm not as high on Hardaway as others might be).

In addition to the scoring, he also recorded 5+ RPG and 3+ APG in those seasons, and seems to have a reputation as having been a solid man defender, and at the very least box stuff(steals/blocks) supports that.

Playoffs During Prime
Now, the question is the playoffs for those five seasons. I do think the extent to which Mullin might be a playoff faller is overstated. He delivered some great playoff performances during his prime.

1989
WCQF vs Jazz: 32.7ppg/5rpg/5apg/2.0spg on 62.6% TS
Leads the #7 seeded Warriors to an upset 3-0 sweep of the #2 seed, 4.01 SRS/+5.1 Net Rtg Malone/Stockton Jazz

WCSF vs Suns: 27.4ppg/6.4rpg/4.2apg/1.6spg on 60.0% TS
Warriors fall in 5, no shame in losing to that 6.84 SRS 55-win Suns team

1990
The Warriors missed the playoffs by four games, despite it being the first year of Run TMC. Everyone was healthy, so I'm not entirely sure what happened here, besides a glaring lack of rebounding. It seems difficult to blame Mullin for it though, when he put up 25.1ppg/5.9rpg/4.1apg/1.6spg on +10.6 rTS and, as I said before, leading the team in WS/48, BPM, and TS Add.

1991
WCQF vs Spurs: 25.3ppg/7.3rpg/3.5apg/1.8spg/1.3bpg on 62.6% TS
Leads the #7 seeded Warriors to a 3-1 upset over the #2 seed, 4.30 SRS/+4.5 Net Rtg D-Rob Spurs

WCSF vs Lakers: 22.3ppg/7.3rpg/2.3apg/2.0spg/1.8bpg on 61.5% TS
Warriors fall in 5 to Magic and the Finals-bound Lakers, even less shame in losing to them than the 1989 Suns.

(A side note: The Warriors were so deficient on the boards that Mullin's 7.3rpg led the team in the playoffs.)

1992
WCQF vs Sonics: 17.8ppg/3.0rpg/3.0apg/1.3spg on 51.3% TS
A poorer showing vs the Sonics, to be sure, in a 3-1 defeat.

1993
The Warriors missed the playoffs after Mullin only played 46 games.

1994
WCQF vs Suns: 25.3ppg/4.7rpg/3.7apg/1.7bpg on 68.1% TS
After missing the end of 92-93 and the beginning 93-94, Mullin helps Sprewell and Webber to 50 wins and, in his last playoff hurrah as a star, has a big series vs the #3 seeded Barkley Suns that were coming off a Finals appearance. His stellar performance wasn't enough to prevent a sweep.

So Mullin played in 24 playoff games between 1989 and 1994 and, while the team had limited success, he was putting up superstar box statlines for the bulk of it, and in fact led them to two playoff upsets vs fellow Dream Teamers Malone/Stockton and Robinson and also put up a monster statline against fellow dream teamer Barkley in a series loss. It's not as much as you might like to see, but it is something.

There is the question of why the Warriors were always playing from a lower seed, why wasn't their floor being raised higher, but as I alluded to before, I don't think it's fair to pin it on Mullin when the roster the front office constructed had such glaring rebounding and defensive deficiencies and also when they're making questionable trades like Richmond for Owens after the 91 playoffs.

Injury Plagued Years
So anyway, 1993-1996 was an injury-plagued time for Mullin, and the team missed the playoffs three out of four of those seasons, but here are the WOWY breakdowns for those seasons:

92-93(torn right thumb ligament)
20-26(.435) with
14-22(.389) without

93-94(torn ligament in fifth finger on right hand)

39-23(.629) with
11-9(.550) without

Also worth noting that Mullin had a +2.1 on/off in 93-94(via Pollack), which took a dive in 95 and 96(due to his further injuries and the fact that the team just got bad after Webber was traded).

94-95(chip fracture/sprained ligament left knee/sprained left hamstring, and then bruised left ankle)
8-17(.320) with
18-39(.316) without

95-96
24-31(.436) with
12-15(.444) without

I haven't done a deep dive into who else might've been in/out at various times that could've effected the outcomes(other than knowing Hardaway missed all of 93-94), but on the surface it looks like they were marginally better with him as he declined, with that margin shrinking as time went on and his injuries took their toll(also as the team around him got worse).

Last Year With The Warriors

Mullins last season with the Warriors - 1996-97 - was his healthiest season since 1991-92, and signaled the beginning of a late stretch of his career in which he'd re-invent himself as a role player.

He recorded 14.5ppg/4.0rpg/4.1apg/1.6spg, but even though Sprewell and Joe Smith scored on more volume, Mullin was much more efficient and ended up leading the team in TS Add(194.2), WS/48(.124), and BPM(2.8), and shot 41.1% 3P. This may not be saying much, because that Warriors team simply wasn't good, but it does show that Mullin was still a positive contributor at the point despite the diminished role.

Pacers Years
Mullin was dealt to the Pacers in the summer of 1997.

In his first season there - 1997-98 - he played and started all 82 games. Because he was in a smaller role, playing only 26.5mpg, and taking far fewer FGAs than in his prime, his counting stats took a hit - 11.3ppg/3.0rpg/2.3apg/1.2spg - but he shot 44% from 3 and was still #2 on the team - behind Reggie Miller - in TS Add(126.8), WS/48(.168), and BPM(4.3), and #4 on the team in points per 100 possessions(23.3) with a +7.8 on/off on a 6.25 SRS 58-win team.

In the playoffs, he looked like an elite role player for the first two rounds before having a poor shooting series vs the Bulls.

ECQF vs Cavs: 10.5ppg/4.0rpg/1.0apg/1.0spg/1.8bpg on 76.9% TS in 3-1 win
ECSF vs Knicks: 11.0ppg/3.4rpg/2.4apg/1.8spg on 56.7% TS in 4-1 win
ECF vs Bulls: 6.4ppg/3.4rpg/1.0apg on 48.5% TS in 3-4 loss

He had a 3.3 BPM and a -3.3 on/off(looks like that Bulls series really hurt him on that front - credit to Scottie I guess) for the playoffs.

In the lockout-shortened 1999 season, Mullin played and started all 50 games. He put up 10.1ppg/3.2rpg/1.6apg and shot 46.5% from 3 while leading the team in BPM(4.5), and being #2 behind Reggie in TS Add(86.1) and WS/48(.167) with a +5.6 on/off on a 3.86 SRS team that was in a three-way tie for the league's fourth best record.

Similar to 1998, he looked like a very good player in the 1999 playoffs.

ECQF vs Bucks: 11.3ppg/1.3rpg on 63.2% TS in 3-0 sweep
ECSF vs 7ers: 10.0ppg/1.3rpg/1.3apg/1.3spg on 54.8% TS in 4-0 sweep
ECF vs Knicks: 8.3ppg/1.8rpg/1.3apg on 53.5% TS in 2-4 loss

He had a 1.6 BPM and a +2.5 on/off for the playoffs.

He was replaced in the starting lineup with Jalen Rose for 1999-00 and played much less, and hardly at all in their run to the finals(10mpg), and his counting stats are pretty small, but his advanced box stats and on/off speak well of his impact in limited minutes.

.142 WS/48, 3.4 BPM, 59% TS(+6.7 rTS and 40.9% 3P), +2.6 on/off in 12.4mpg in 47 games
.148 WS/48, 3.6 BPM, 60% TS, +5.6 on/off in 10.0mpg in 9 playoff games

He played one more best-forgotten year with the Warriors after that, and that was it.

Conclusion
Mullin had a five-year prime where he was one of the league's elite scorers(again - five consecutive seasons of 25+ppg and 4+ rTS) and solid rebounder to boot, and he put up some superstar playoff performances upsetting higher-seeded teams, even if his own team never got past the second round.

After a string of injury-plagued seasons, he became a high-level role player for the late 90s Pacers. I do think this adds real value to his career, especially in light of certain other players who maybe don't accept a lesser role as gracefully in their later years.

There are reasons to argue against him, but there are players that made the last Top 100 that, like Mullin, are primarily known as volume scorers, but did so much less efficiently while not having much more in the way of playoff success - I'm thinking of Carmelo Anthony here, as well as Dominique. Those two had one 100+ TS Add season each, while Mullin has six(and it would've been seven if he hadn't gotten hurt in 92-93). Like Mullin, Dominique never got past the second round as an alpha, and Melo only did it once in a season where Chauncey Billups was arguably the better player. Melo and Dominique have alpha longevity over Mullin, but the efficiency gap is pretty big.

As a final note - Mullin was on The Dream Team, and there have always been people that say it should've been Dominique(even though he wouldn't have been able to play anyway due to his achilles injury), but I firmly believe it was the right choice, both because of the fit(Mullin could play off-ball and the team needed that release valve guy) and because Mullin was dramatically more efficient in 1990-91 when the selections were being made.

I really think Mullin deserves a spot, and if he doesn't get in, he'd be the only Dream Teamer other than Laettner to miss the cut.

Chris Webber
I'm thinking C-Webb, if and when he gets into the nomination discussion, could be one of the more polarizing and contentious figures in the project. The 2020 Top 100 was the first Top 100 on this board that Webber didn't make, so there has been enough support for him in the past. On the other hand, I know from experience that some of the people who wouldn't support him for the list really don't care for him.

I was pretty bullish for him when I started looking, and I still think there's an argument, but by the end of my research, I was less bullish. I'll just lay out both sides.

The argument FOR:

One of the criticisms often leveled about Webber is that he is overrated as a volume scorer because his efficiency leaves something to be desired. I don't dispute this, but I will say that while his efficiency leaves something to be desired, it's not terrible. In his prime years, it was usually hovering at either just above or just below league average. But the crux of my argument is that he did a bunch of other things besides scoring.

He always had the reputation of being one of the best passing big men in the game, and the numbers bare that out. These are his league ranks in assists per 100 possessions among PFs and Cs:

1994 - #7
1995 - #1
1996 - #2
1997 - #4
1998 - #6(4-way tie)
1999 - #8
2000 - #2
2001 - #4
2002 - #2
2003 - #3
2004 - #6 in 23 games
2005 - #3
2006 - #11(tie)
2007 - #4
2008 - #1 in 9 games

I would also posit that, while he was never an elite defender or anything, he was a solid, underrated defender pre-knee-injury based on D-RAPM(that wasn't the case after the injury except for the small sample size of 03-04):

97: 1.62
98: 2.04
99: 2.00
00: 0.23
01: 2.40
02: 1.66
03: 1.60
04: 1.36

He was also a consistently good, though not necessarily great, rebounder, posting 11+ RPG twice, 10+ RPG six times, and 9+ RPG twelve times in his career.

So he was scoring at high volume on what would charitably be described as league average-ish efficiency, while also providing good production as a playmaker, defender, and rebounder. He was a very, very good all around basketball player, and there are lot of people that fully believe he would've been the #1 on a championship team were it not for some shady officiating in 2002.

The argument AGAINST

So it isn't hard to predict the arguments against, and the thing that tempered my enthusiasm wasn't his (lack of) efficiency, or his anti-clutch reputation. It was the following.

2001-02(Webber played 54 games)
43-11(.796) with
18-10 (.643) without

2002-03(Webber played 67 games)
49-18(.731) with
10-5(.667) without

2003-04(Webber played 23 games)
11-12(.478) with
44-15(.746) without

So while the Kings were better with him in both 02 and 03, they were still plenty good without him, and the without sample in 2002 isn't insignificant either.

Further, when Webber missed most of 03-04, they didn't seem to miss a beat. They did go from 6.68 SRS/+6.8 Net Rtg to 5.41 SRS/+5.4 Net Rtg, but you would've expected Webber's absence to hurt more.

And who did they replace his production with? They traded bench depth in Hedo Turkoglu and Scot Pollard for Brad Miller, who in 2003-04, recorded the following: 14.1ppg/10.3rpg/4.3apg on +6.3 rTS, 2.48 RAPM.

Anyone who is down on Webber would pose the question - if he can apparently be so easily replaced with Brad Miller, is he really a Top 100 guy?

The counter might be - because they were a stacked and unselfish team with a deep bench(i.e. pieces they could move for another starter) and a HOF coach, they were uniquely set up to absorb the loss of a star player. But that's admittedly the view of someone who wants to see it in the best light.

Add the fact that in the five years they played together before Webber's injury, Vlade Divac had a higher RAPM four times(5.83 vs 3.38 1999, 5.85 vs 1.85 2000, 3.49 vs 2.83 2002, 3.49 vs 2.63 2003), and that Doug Christie and Scot Pollard both had higher RAPMs than Webber in 2002-03(3.79 and 3.26 vs 2.63), it doesn't paint the most flattering impact portrait in the world.

(Though to be fair, as a counter, his on/off is solid if a bit inconsistant in the playoffs. From 1996-97 until 2002-03(the year he was injured), he had a positive on/off every regular season but one. In the playoffs, he had crazy highs - +31.6 in 2001, +23.3 in 1997 with the Bullets - and crazy lows - -22.6 in 1999. Less extremely, he had a +10.9 in 2003 and +0.1 in 2000, as well as a -1.9 in 2002.)

Still, I think you can argue for Webber over some of the guys that made the back end of the 2020 list.

Connie Hawkins
So, I don't feel too strongly about Connie Hawkins either way, but I know there are some here that do, and I do feel like he should be discussed at least. His is one of the more unfair stories in the league's history, having been blackballed from the NBA for something he didn't do and thus not getting to play for what would've been a number of his prime years. And then on the other end, injuries cut his prime short.

And so it's the Bill Walton question - are one or two transcendent years enough on their own to earn a spot?

The question is even tougher here than with Walton because Walton's incredible and brief peak came in the NBA, whereas Hawkins' came not just in the ABA, but the early ABA - in fact, the first two years of the ABA.

Is

26.8ppg/13.5rpg/4.6apg, 59.7% TS(+11.4 rTS), .273 WS/48 in 44.9mpg RS

and

29.9ppg/12.3rpg/4.6apg, 65.1% TS, .310 WS/48 in 44mpg in the playoffs vs the Pacers(Roger Brown/Freddie Lewis/Bob Netolicky), Minnesota Muskies(Mel Daniels/Les Hunter), and New Orleans Buccaneers(Doug Moe/Jimmy Jones/Red Robbins)

enough?

I don't have an answer, but it's worth discussing.

Tiny Archibald
Tiny is a tough question for me. There's no question he had 2-3 impressive statistical seasons with the Royals/Kings. But in six years, they made the playoffs once, lost their lone playoff series, and Tiny shot poorly in that series - 20.2ppg/5.3apg on 44.2% TS, over ten percent lower than his RS TS of 54.4%.

I do understand that his rosters were fairly lousy, so perhaps this is just a case of Tiny being of one of the league's first cases of 'great player stuck on a bad team'.

TBH though, I'm not sure that I'd see any argument at all if it weren't for the added value of his Boston years, 1980 and 1981 in particular, and his contributions to that 1981 championship - he was a full-time starter playing 35+mpg, and he put up 13.8ppg/7.7apg on +4.8 rTS in the regular season(and similar numbers in the playoffs, though less efficiently).

Jerry Lucas
I don't anticipate Lucas having much Top 100 support here. He was never an alpha, but he was an efficient scorer and an elite rebounder, with good durability, reasonable longevity, and high intelligence. He just never had much in the way of playoff success until he won a ring with the Knicks as a role player near the end of his career, and 1960s pace inflation might make his box numbers look bigger than they were. I don't know that I feel too strongly about him, but I can see the argument.

Shawn Kemp
I'm honestly pretty high on Kemp's prime - say 1992-1997 - relatively speaking. He was a legit two-way force, an efficient scorer, explosive finisher, good defender, good rebounder, freak athlete. The 1994 and 1995 playoff collapses hurt, but his individual numbers in the 1995 playoffs - 24.8ppg/12.0rpg/2.8apg/2.0spg/1.8bpg on 66.7% TS, .260 WS/48, 7.4 BPM over four games - look very good(not so much in 1994). The knock on Kemp has always been the way he declined, the perception that he just stopped giving a crap, even if there may have been a legitimate drug addiction involved.

I could be swayed either way, but I do think highly of prime Kemp as a guy who who was a 1A or 1B(depending on your view) on a Finals team and had seven consecutive years of positive TS Add, four consecutive years of 100+ TS Add, and was at least one of the defensive anchors during a five-year run from 92-93 to 96-97 in which the Sonics had rel DRtgs of -3.1, -4.8, -2.0, -5.5, and -4.0 before dropping to -1.4 their first year without Kemp(97-98) and then not having an above league-average defense for the remainder of their time in Seattle. In five seasons from 92-93 to 96-97, he averaged 18.6ppg/10.8rpg/2.1apg/1.4spg/1.6bpg on +5.6 rTS while being imo a big factor in the aforementioned team defenses. If that prime had lasted ten seasons instead of five, I don't think it would even be a discussion whether or not he should be in the Top 100.

Bernard King
Sort of similar to to Mullin in that both had five-year primes in which they were elite volume scorers. Some are very high on King, and I can see the argument, but for me, Mullin's post-prime holds more value than King's, having contributed so positively for those Pacers teams. King made a remarkable comeback from his ACL injury at a time when that didn't happen, and scored on high volume again with the Bullets, but his efficiency was way down and those Bullets teams didn't make the playoffs for three out of the four years he was there.

Who wouldn't make the list, then?
If I'm going to argue for players who didn't make the list last time, then I feel it's only fair to think about who would have to get the boot to make room. I won't go into too much detail yet, or make any definitive "he shouldn't get in" statements, but some broad thoughts...

I mentioned Melo and Dominique before as volume scorers who aren't especially efficient and who don't have a lot of team success in the playoffs. It's hard to imagine Dominique not getting in(he's never not made it), but I do think at the very least Sharman impacted winning basketball more(just one stat, but Sharman has a career .178 WS/48 RS and .174 WS/48 PO, as compared to .148 and .079 for Dominique and .120 and .089 for Melo), and the numbers show Mullin as a much more efficient scorer too.

Horace Grant certainly has his merits, but I have to squint to see the argument for him over Sharman and even Walker did more as a #1 on those 70s Bulls teams than Horace ever did(obviously, he was never asked to be a #1 or even #2), and that pains me to say because as a lifelong Bulls fan, Horace is one of my guys, man, I love him. I'm not even sure he should go over Webber, and while longevity is an issue, peak Kemp over peak Grant seems pretty easy.

Guys like Jeff Hornacek and Terry Porter have good numbers and longevity, but in their time they were seen as supporting players, and it's worth questioning if they should get in over alphas(in their prime) like Kemp or Mullin or a guy like Sharman who objectively won more.

Dame got in last time - keeping with my caution with regards to inducting active players, has he done enough to go over some of these guys?

Just a few examples of guys you could argue against, but I'll stop now, because this post is already too long.

Great idea for a thread; when I have some more time, I’ll try to respond to some of these players’ respective cases. Players such as Grant, Hornacek, Porter, etc., who have very good impact signals might be able to hold their ground.
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#6 » by HeartBreakKid » Tue Jan 2, 2024 4:53 pm

I think since the 00s and perhaps 2011, there was a bigger shift toward quantity of seasons opposed to peak among the voters. A lot of these guys from the pre cable days were passed up due to lack of good longevity.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#7 » by SNPA » Tue Jan 2, 2024 6:22 pm

Good write up. This contains all the classic arguments as well as mistakes of the anti Webber crowd.

……..

Chris Webber
I'm thinking C-Webb, if and when he gets into the nomination discussion, could be one of the more polarizing and contentious figures in the project. The 2020 Top 100 was the first Top 100 on this board that Webber didn't make, so there has been enough support for him in the past. On the other hand, I know from experience that some of the people who wouldn't support him for the list really don't care for him.

I was pretty bullish for him when I started looking, and I still think there's an argument, but by the end of my research, I was less bullish. I'll just lay out both sides.

The argument FOR:

One of the criticisms often leveled about Webber is that he is overrated as a volume scorer because his efficiency leaves something to be desired. I don't dispute this, but I will say that while his efficiency leaves something to be desired, it's not terrible. In his prime years, it was usually hovering at either just above or just below league average. Webber played at the elbow to facilitate the Princeton. He was fitting into the offense, it wasn’t an offense specific to him like many first options. He was playing for team success in Sac during his prime and it worked. But the crux of my argument is that he did a bunch of other things besides scoring.

He always had the reputation of being one of the best passing big men in the game, and the numbers bare that out. These are his league ranks in assists per 100 possessions among PFs and Cs:

1994 - #7
1995 - #1
1996 - #2
1997 - #4
1998 - #6(4-way tie)
1999 - #8
2000 - #2
2001 - #4
2002 - #2
2003 - #3
2004 - #6 in 23 games
2005 - #3
2006 - #11(tie)
2007 - #4
2008 - #1 in 9 games

I would also posit that, while he was never an elite defender or anything, he was a solid, underrated defender pre-knee-injury based on D-RAPM(that wasn't the case after the injury except for the small sample size of 03-04):

97: 1.62
98: 2.04
99: 2.00
00: 0.23
01: 2.40
02: 1.66
03: 1.60
04: 1.36

He was also a consistently good, though not necessarily great, rebounder, posting 11+ RPG twice, 10+ RPG six times, and 9+ RPG twelve times in his career.

So he was scoring at high volume on what would charitably be described as league average-ish efficiency, while also providing good production as a playmaker, defender, and rebounder. He was a very, very good all around basketball player, and there are lot of people that fully believe he would've been the #1 on a championship team were it not for some shady officiating in 2002. This is only true of people with eyes who aren’t Lakers fans.

The argument AGAINST

So it isn't hard to predict the arguments against, and the thing that tempered my enthusiasm wasn't his (lack of) efficiency, or his anti-clutch reputation. It was the following.

2001-02(Webber played 54 games)
43-11(.796) with
18-10 (.643) without

2002-03(Webber played 67 games)
49-18(.731) with
10-5(.667) without

2003-04(Webber played 23 games)
11-12(.478) with
44-15(.746) without

So while the Kings were better with him in both 02 and 03, they were still plenty good without him, and the without sample in 2002 isn't insignificant either.
Yes, it was a stacked team with a legendary offense. Of course the team was still good without him.

Further, when Webber missed most of 03-04, they didn't seem to miss a beat. They did go from 6.68 SRS/+6.8 Net Rtg to 5.41 SRS/+5.4 Net Rtg, but you would've expected Webber's absence to hurt more.

And who did they replace his production with? They traded bench depth in Hedo Turkoglu and Scot Pollard for Brad Miller, who in 2003-04, recorded the following: 14.1ppg/10.3rpg/4.3apg on +6.3 rTS, 2.48 RAPM.

Anyone who is down on Webber would pose the question - if he can apparently be so easily replaced with Brad Miller, is he really a Top 100 guy? You mean multi time all-star Brad Miller? This is a flawed analogy but it’s like replacing Durant with McGrady and be down on Durant because the team didn’t fall apart.

The counter might be - because they were a stacked and unselfish team with a deep bench(i.e. pieces they could move for another starter) and a HOF coach, they were uniquely set up to absorb the loss of a star player. But that's admittedly the view of someone who wants to see it in the best light. What other light is there? It was a stacked team.

Add the fact that in the five years they played together before Webber's injury, Vlade Divac had a higher RAPM four times(5.83 vs 3.38 1999, 5.85 vs 1.85 2000, 3.49 vs 2.83 2002, 3.49 vs 2.63 2003), and that Doug Christie and Scot Pollard both had higher RAPMs than Webber in 2002-03(3.79 and 3.26 vs 2.63), it doesn't paint the most flattering impact portrait in the world. Radom advance stat against a few random players.

(Though to be fair, as a counter, his on/off is solid if a bit inconsistant in the playoffs. From 1996-97 until 2002-03(the year he was injured), he had a positive on/off every regular season but one. In the playoffs, he had crazy highs - +31.6 in 2001, +23.3 in 1997 with the Bullets - and crazy lows - -22.6 in 1999. Less extremely, he had a +10.9 in 2003 and +0.1 in 2000, as well as a -1.9 in 2002.) On/off over a handful of playoff games with no context provided…ehhh. This would need to be broken down by how many games did he play each year at least. Being - over one series is not equal balancing to being + over several series. This is the minimum needed IMO.

Still, I think you can argue for Webber over some of the guys that made the back end of the 2020 list.

…..

Conclusion: a first option on the best offense who rebounds, runs, passes and plays decent defense. A guy who lead a team that took Shaq/Kobe/Phil/3 Zebras to defeat.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#8 » by kcktiny » Tue Jan 2, 2024 7:02 pm

Maurice Cheeks(89/2017, 83/2014, 100/2006)
No, also never really a star.


A defensive star.

A vastly underrated PG. Excellent defender, efficient on offense. From 1978-79 to 1983-84 a key reason (along with Bobby Jones) why the 76ers were the league's top defensive team and averaged a league best W-L record of 57-25.

First 11 years in the league was 3rd in assists, 1st in steals (by a wide margin), just 17th in turnovers, all while being one of the best shooters among PGs.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#9 » by AEnigma » Tue Jan 2, 2024 7:34 pm

He was also pretty consistently the third best player on the team, and he was never a top five guard in any given year despite his prime occurring during a relatively weak era of guard play. So no, very much not a star, nor any kind-of franchise centrepiece. He is properly rated as an occasional all-star in a secondary/tertiary role on good teams.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#10 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Jan 2, 2024 9:02 pm

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:So this is meant primarily for participants in the Top 100 project(I have quotebombed many project regulars at the bottom of the post), but anyone can chime in.

I compiled this list a while ago of every player who DID NOT make the 2020 list but DID make at least one prior list.

They are divided into two categories - those who made the NBA's top 50 at 50 or 75 at 75 lists, and the rest. I thought this was a worthwhile distinction to make, given those lists - particulary the 50 at 50 - elevated a lot of those guys in "the story of the NBA", especially for those of us who weren't around when they played.

Within each category, the players are listed in ascending order of their most recent placement, and all of their placements are listed in parenthesis.

NBA 50 at 50/75 at 75 Guys
Nate "Tiny" Archibald(74/2014, 75/2011, 69/2008, 61/2006)
Earl "The Pearl" Monroe(74/2008, 88/2006)
Dave Bing(79/2008, 77/2006)
"Pistol" Pete Maravich(81/2008, 62/2006)
Dave DeBusschere(93/2014, 97/2011, 70/2008, 74/2006)
Jerry Lucas(95/2011, 48/2008, 54/2006)
Lenny Wilkins(96/2008, 84/2006)
Bill Sharman(97/2014, 87/2011, 80/2008, 93/2006)

The Rest
Arvydas Sabonis(43/2006)
Dennis Johnson(63/2008, 58/2006)
Anfernee "Penny" Hardaway(65/2011, 90/2008, 90/2006)
Bernard King(70/2014, 63/2011, 72/2008, 65/2006)
David Thompson(74/2011, 95/2008, 75/2006)
George McGinnis(75/2008, 68/2006)
Mark Price(79/2011)
Chris Webber(83/2017, 86/2014, 76/2011, 68/2008, 60/2006)
Drazen Petrovic(85/2006)
Deron Williams(85/2011)
Elton Brand(87/2017, 79/2014, 86/2011)
Mitch Richmond(88/2014, 89/2006)
Maurice Cheeks(89/2017, 83/2014, 100/2006)
Tim Hardaway(91/2017, 94/2011, 100/2008)
Spencer Haywood(91/2008, 78/2006)
Fat Lever(92/2006)
Chris Mullin(94/2014, 96/2011, 85/2008, 80/2006)
Mookie Blaylock(94/2017)
Chet "The Jet" Walker(95/2017)
Shawn Kemp(95/2014, 82/2011, 91/2006)
Neil Johnston(96/2014, 89/2008)
Vlade Divac(97/2017)
Mark Aguirre(97/2008)
Brad Daugherty(98/2011)
Joe Dumars(98/2014, 91/2011, 45/2008, 57/2006)
Connie Hawkins(99/2017, 80/2011, 77/2008, 71/2006)
Bob Dandridge(99/2011, 99/2008)
Mel Daniels(100/2017, 91/2014, 89/2011, 71/2008, 79/2006)
Marques Johnson(100/2014, 61/2011, 98/2006)
Bill Laimbeer(100/2011)

The purpose of this thread is simply to see if any of these guys who have made lists before still have any champions around here. It's probably not time yet for any of these guys to be discussed in the actual project threads, but seeing as we're about to cross #60 and that if any of these guys were to make it, it would be in the 75+ range, we're not all that far away, so I thought this could be a place to start advocating if anyone wants to.

Some of the guys on this list look like one-time flukes, others may have had an argument in the past but maybe don't anymore with the arrival of more recent players, but I like to think a lot of them are still worth discussing. I'll get it started with some players I felt compelled to write about, if not outright champion.


Love the thread idea. I'm going to talk about some of the guys that I'd be most likely to consider "championing" based on my impression of where I stand compared to most.

Tiny & DJ - So, I feel like I'm higher on both these guys than most.

I mention Tiny because I think he was pretty legit. I mean, let the league in PPG & APG with the best ORtg in the league, and then played a supporting role on a champion? Why exactly would we put Iverson above him other than an assertion that Iverson's league was way stronger? If we're just talking about who was the more effective basketball player when they played, isn't Tiny the answer?

And I mention DJ here because DJ was an upgrade over Tiny for the Celtics. Now, he was also 6 years younger, but given that DJ was arguably the greatest defensive guard in history, I don't think there's really much doubt that DJ is the guy you'd prefer if you aren't looking for someone to dominate the scoring. Then you recall that DJ's peak achievement came in Seattle as the Finals MVP - and arguably MVP - of the champs. Doesn't it seem like DJ has the more accomplished career?

DeBusschere - I'm not sure if I'm actually higher on Dave than most, but I do respect him as someone who clearly played a bigger part in New York than Monroe or Lucas. All guys played on other teams ahead of time and I wouldn't feel strongly about DeBusschere over the other guys based on their pre-NY careers, but I also don't think these other two guys were doing anything pre-NY that really merits effusive praise up there with being one of the 3 main guys on a champion.

Sabonis - let's set context here. When he got voted in, we weren't limiting this to only NBA & related leagues. In a project like that, Sabonis absolutely should be on this list. Just the NBA? Probably not, though I think he is underrated by most.

Penny - I don't necessarily have a problem with him missing the Top 100 due to longevity, but I'll say I was pretty shocked to realize that Penny really seems like the best player on the Magic during Shaq's best years there based on the +/-. I was so used to Kobe looking far worse than Shaq I assumed all such guards would be so disappointing, but no, Penny was better than that.

King - maybe. I respect what he did a great deal, but longevity makes it tricky.

Mo - could be. I like his game.

Mullin - yeah, I think we shouldn't dismiss him lightly. He was a sign of the league to come.

Chet the Jet - very tempting guy given his place on the '67 76ers and his scoring volume & efficiency. I think a conversation involving him, Greer & Cunningham is warranted.

Divac - warrants serious discussion. I absolutely have him above Webber.

Dumars - he used to be someone this board really championed and he fell off. I've never been entirely comfortable with that.

The Hawk - exceptional peak, hurt badly by longevity. Were I making a list that wasn't NBA-focused, given all the competitive basketball he played before the ABA, he'd be quite high on my list. Like, Top 25-ish, feel that strongly about it, but people have argued against his longevity in the past very effectively and I can't really say they're wrong. Unlike someone like Bill Walton, he wasn't someone who was valuable in all his situations health-permitting.

Dandridge - yeah, I think he's really, really solid. I'm almost ready to argue him against Unseld & Hayes...but not quite.

Daniels - definitely someone I could see myself going for in the right circumstance, but I don't think he's been tremendously underrated by us in the past.

Marques - listing him here, but to be honest I don't really think it likely I'll have the ammunition to champion him. I just think he's someone not to be dismissed lightly.

Laimbeer - yup, another Piston we shouldn't dismiss lightly. I think conversations involving him, Dumars & Rodman make sense.

Other guys who came to mind with your list:

Larry Nance - I'm not really skeptical of Price & Daugherty, but I think I'm pretty set on championing Nance before the other two.

Jack Sikma - interesting to compare him Laimbeer & Nance. All seem like strong candidates, but I think I might go with Nance.

Zelmo Beaty - so I think it's important not to sleep on this guy. I definitely have him as the highest Hawk of the era after Pettit & Hagan, and I think he was just plain more impressive than Daniels, and just based on NBA & related career, over Hawk too. Probably over Nance as well come to think of.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#11 » by One_and_Done » Tue Jan 2, 2024 9:51 pm

I'm pretty sure you know my views. Most of the old timers you mentioned shouldn't be in the top 300, let alone 100. Guys like David Bing or Jerry Lucas wouldn't be good today.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#12 » by LA Bird » Tue Jan 2, 2024 11:21 pm

SNPA wrote:Good write up. This contains all the classic arguments as well as mistakes of the anti Webber crowd.

One of the criticisms often leveled about Webber is that he is overrated as a volume scorer because his efficiency leaves something to be desired. I don't dispute this, but I will say that while his efficiency leaves something to be desired, it's not terrible. In his prime years, it was usually hovering at either just above or just below league average. Webber played at the elbow to facilitate the Princeton. He was fitting into the offense, it wasn’t an offense specific to him like many first options. He was playing for team success in Sac during his prime and it worked.

So while the Kings were better with him in both 02 and 03, they were still plenty good without him, and the without sample in 2002 isn't insignificant either.
Yes, it was a stacked team with a legendary offense. Of course the team was still good without him.

Anyone who is down on Webber would pose the question - if he can apparently be so easily replaced with Brad Miller, is he really a Top 100 guy? You mean multi time all-star Brad Miller? This is a flawed analogy but it’s like replacing Durant with McGrady and be down on Durant because the team didn’t fall apart.

The counter might be - because they were a stacked and unselfish team with a deep bench(i.e. pieces they could move for another starter) and a HOF coach, they were uniquely set up to absorb the loss of a star player. But that's admittedly the view of someone who wants to see it in the best light. What other light is there? It was a stacked team.

Add the fact that in the five years they played together before Webber's injury, Vlade Divac had a higher RAPM four times(5.83 vs 3.38 1999, 5.85 vs 1.85 2000, 3.49 vs 2.83 2002, 3.49 vs 2.63 2003), and that Doug Christie and Scot Pollard both had higher RAPMs than Webber in 2002-03(3.79 and 3.26 vs 2.63), it doesn't paint the most flattering impact portrait in the world. Radom advance stat against a few random players.

Conclusion: a first option on the best offense who rebounds, runs, passes and plays decent defense. A guy who lead a team that took Shaq/Kobe/Phil/3 Zebras to defeat.

The usual path of every Webber discussion:
1. Webber led title contending teams while averaging 25 ppg
-> Volume scoring by itself without efficiency doesn't mean much
2. The Kings needed Webber to play that role to be successful
-> 04 Kings had their best offense ever without Webber
3. WOWY doesn't work when Webber's replacement was an All Star with similar skills
-> 01-03 Kings were 6+ SRS in 50 games without Webber
4. All else fails, champion PPG and blame the refs.

The Brad Miller point in particular is the biggest own goal someone could use to justify Webber's lack of impact:
• Miller literally proves you don't need a 20 FGA chucker in the Princeton offense for it be successful. His very existence undermines the idea that Webber was sacrificing his FG% and playing the way he did for the greater good of the team (never mind that Webber was inefficiently chucking on other teams too).
• Miller being a 2x All Star is nice but is that the bar we are setting for Webber here? Webber fans like to talk about how he would be in the same tier as Duncan/Garnett/Dirk if he wasn't robbed of a ring but he couldn't be more impactful than a mere All Star?
If Miller was so great, why is no Webber fan ever pushing Miller as a top 100 player too?
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#13 » by Owly » Tue Jan 2, 2024 11:36 pm

Very first glance thoughts firstly at those you raise and then maybe in general on others and or revise stuff in light of closer look at your points…
Gut level thoughts, very much my impression more than hard yes-no for top 100

Sharman
Generally a believer. Great shooter. Great work ethic. Great coach. Good defensive rep. I might take him over the other Boston guard.

Chet Walker
Again personally a believer. Very efficient. Pretty good defensive rep. Certainly a mainstream under-discussed guy.


Mullin
I like. Don’t know where I am on career value though. Injuries probably rob a fair chunk of potential career value.
Recollection is career playoff numbers aren’t that pretty, for those who tilt that way, though prime samples aren't going to be huge.

Webber
Cynical here, at least versus mainsteam (which is higher on him than it is on most others here). Oft injured, a lot of burnt bridges and clashes, weak playoff production for those tilting that way, impact picture not great from memory, certainly some of the unmissed absences in Sacramento hurt.
As his defensive RAPM has been raised 97-14 RAPM saw him as a mild positive on both ends. His RAPM was 185th in that era. Different longevity on all those players but not something that would commend him for top 100 all time. ’97-22 is higher on his D, but more so lower on his O putting him as very slightly below average overall.
But as before this is versus a high baseline, cynical would necessarily exclude him from the 100. He was the highest guy in ’17 to drop of ’20 (83). 2nd was semi-peer Brand. Brand gets more obviously taken out by injuries (Webber remained somewhat box productive if impact declined) but is more regarded in terms of professionalism I think, is a playoff production raiser (off small samples though arguably the samples skew against him in that he misses it in most of his more productive years) for those inclined towards that. 97-14 RAPM is very similar to, slightly worse than, Webber’s, ditto 97-22 though the number of people between them is greater and the gap slightly greater.

C Hawkins
A what if, ultimately.
A monster in the ABA. From memory very good in the ABL. Could well be above Baylor … if he’d a had a full career. He’s only dominant in second tier league and isn’t good enough for long enough in the NBA.

Tiny
Great peak. Bad health. Bad playoff numbers though the distribution of these versus RS minutes is part of it.

Jerry Lucas
Reputation as a stat chaser. Some very poor impact signals (esp in the 60s). Weaker playoff player in Cin iirc. Have to be all in on box-side to consider him I think.

Kemp
Maybe? High playoff box. His status within the Seattle teams maybe got revised down when Payton stayed and emerged more as a box-productive offensive star, perhaps unfairly. Then again probably up for grabs who/what to what degree was driving those Seattle teams (McMIllan? depth? Karl? Schrempf?)
Weak minutes due to foul trouble.
Intangible stuff regarding weight, substances, jealousy.

King
Great playoff productivity (maybe not huge sample otoh).
Bad longevity of real quality.
Burned bridges.
Some icky stuff off court that bleeds in to harming franchise he’s under contract to.

Mel and Dominique dropping.
Don’t know where they’re at but would imagine on average those here would be more accommodating to that than elsewhere.

Grant
I like more. Good impact side stuff. Good skillset for a third guy. Good production for a “non-star” at his apex.

Porter
Has some great playoffs for those that way inclined.
Porter and Hornacek
Generally like them.
“Alpha” Mullin is at 22.2 career usage, Kemp is higher but with mostly weak passing, versus high turnovers i.e. not necessarily a guy who should be a first option, making decisions.

Cheeks as someone that was the next highest after Webber and Brand to fall off … I think strong signal of impact(?). Defense, passing and shooting should help all teams but also scale well to good teams.

Blaylock is interesting. Some very positive impact data iirc, pbp era and 94-96. Later emerging alcoholism could be a confounding factor (didn’t stop him being impactful, wasn’t known to be an issue at the time [don’t know about internally]).

Dennis Johnson … I think got a bit of a “Maravich halo”, that he was dying young got people pushing for him for the hall. IDK. The numbers aren’t great. I think there’s guards I’d prefer who are first thought of in terms of defense and impact (Cheeks … maybe Blaylock?) and in terms of Seattle’s guards I think I’d go Williams first (and then perhaps I’d be looking at other raisers … not my bag per se, but otoh I think others are … Wanzer, Davis). The degree of negativity about him for intangibles is at a level where it’s concerning.

Dumars … a case would probably have to rely on him being significantly better than his box (perhaps a sort of SG Cheeks with less steals??). Which is plausible on D. On the other hand this effectiveness grew more inconsistent as he took on more primacy and some of that leaked into his D as well (from memory of the Barry books) though some suggestions of being very highly regarded around 89-91 (Barry, Cohn had him as the 2nd best shooting guard [after '90]; fwiw Jordan though he was someone that covered him well).
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#14 » by LA Bird » Tue Jan 2, 2024 11:43 pm

Not saying they should all be making top 100 but I want to give a shout out to a particular player archetype that seems to be underrated in general. There has been an all time level defensive point guard with inefficient scoring about every decade since the 80s (DJ/Mookie/Kidd/Jrue) and their impact seem to be much better than their mediocre box score composites would suggest every time. Kidd's impact is well known but Jrue and Mookie are regularly among league leaders in RAPM too. Jrue outperformed Davis/Giannis in on/off in 7 out of 9 seasons when they were teammates and Mookie is the only player besides Curry with six consecutive 10+ on/off seasons (he potentially has a longer streak because we don't have data in previous seasons).

Dennis Johnson is the only player here we don't have complete on/off numbers for. There are some mixed signals - squared2020's limited RAPM data later in his career has DJ only above average in 85 and average in 88 but he looks pretty impressive in Moonbeam's RWOWY (~95 percentile through most of 80s), and ElGee's WOWY variants (above Kidd in 4 out of 5 metrics). DJ played for three different franchises in his career and was on elite defensive teams everywhere he went (-3.7 average relative defense for a decade with the weakest being a -1.5). You could argue he was lucky to play in a period without GOAT level defensive bigs but DJ is the only point guard in history with actual arguments for DPOY and he did it several seasons. This is still one of the most underrated defensive performances ever in a Finals game:



Even if you take a more traditional approach and just look at accolades, 3 titles as a key starter including a FMVP, 1x All NBA 1st, 1x All NBA 2nd, 5x All Star, 9x All Defense is still strong for a back end top 100 candidate. For example, Tony Parker has been inducted around 75 the last 3 projects with a comparable resume.

Spoiler:
Depending on how you view Draymond's role on offense, he is arguably the best in this category of inefficient defensive PGs because of his size. But I know he is quite polarizing as a player so I am hiding him in spoilers here. :lol:
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#15 » by AEnigma » Wed Jan 3, 2024 12:12 am

I agree Jrue makes for something of a good modern comparison with Dennis Johnson, especially if — as many may currently expect — Boston wins the title this year.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#16 » by SNPA » Wed Jan 3, 2024 1:08 am

LA Bird wrote:
SNPA wrote:Good write up. This contains all the classic arguments as well as mistakes of the anti Webber crowd.

One of the criticisms often leveled about Webber is that he is overrated as a volume scorer because his efficiency leaves something to be desired. I don't dispute this, but I will say that while his efficiency leaves something to be desired, it's not terrible. In his prime years, it was usually hovering at either just above or just below league average. Webber played at the elbow to facilitate the Princeton. He was fitting into the offense, it wasn’t an offense specific to him like many first options. He was playing for team success in Sac during his prime and it worked.

So while the Kings were better with him in both 02 and 03, they were still plenty good without him, and the without sample in 2002 isn't insignificant either.
Yes, it was a stacked team with a legendary offense. Of course the team was still good without him.

Anyone who is down on Webber would pose the question - if he can apparently be so easily replaced with Brad Miller, is he really a Top 100 guy? You mean multi time all-star Brad Miller? This is a flawed analogy but it’s like replacing Durant with McGrady and be down on Durant because the team didn’t fall apart.

The counter might be - because they were a stacked and unselfish team with a deep bench(i.e. pieces they could move for another starter) and a HOF coach, they were uniquely set up to absorb the loss of a star player. But that's admittedly the view of someone who wants to see it in the best light. What other light is there? It was a stacked team.

Add the fact that in the five years they played together before Webber's injury, Vlade Divac had a higher RAPM four times(5.83 vs 3.38 1999, 5.85 vs 1.85 2000, 3.49 vs 2.83 2002, 3.49 vs 2.63 2003), and that Doug Christie and Scot Pollard both had higher RAPMs than Webber in 2002-03(3.79 and 3.26 vs 2.63), it doesn't paint the most flattering impact portrait in the world. Radom advance stat against a few random players.

Conclusion: a first option on the best offense who rebounds, runs, passes and plays decent defense. A guy who lead a team that took Shaq/Kobe/Phil/3 Zebras to defeat.

The usual path of every Webber discussion:
1. Webber led title contending teams while averaging 25 ppg
-> Volume scoring by itself without efficiency doesn't mean much Works great if you are winning at a high level, are a title contender and playing arguably the most beautiful brand of basketball.
2. The Kings needed Webber to play that role to be successful
-> 04 Kings had their best offense ever without Webber You just jumped ahead five years. Look at the 1999 team, look at the 2004 team. Miller had more talent, a prime Peja and Adelman had numerous seasons to hone the offense to perfection. Miller isn’t just an all star either, he is an all star with massive skill overlap.
3. WOWY doesn't work when Webber's replacement was an All Star with similar skills
-> 01-03 Kings were 6+ SRS in 50 games without Webber Its a system offense. It’s designed to be next man up and work. Petrie was always looking for versatile players who could slide in…he was very successful at that. That’s not a knock on Webber. It’s a credit to Petrie and Rick.
4. All else fails, champion PPG and blame the refs.
People saw what happened. Webber can’t beat the business model.

The Brad Miller point in particular is the biggest own goal someone could use to justify Webber's lack of impact:
• Miller literally proves you don't need a 20 FGA chucker in the Princeton offense for it be successful. His very existence undermines the idea that Webber was sacrificing his FG% and playing the way he did for the greater good of the team (never mind that Webber was inefficiently chucking on other teams too). Webber was leading a team to winning pre-injury. On a team many thought was the best or damn close. I’m not clear how that can be used against him. The earlier version of Sac wouldn’t have worked as well with Miller, he came along at the right time…credit Petrie again.
• Miller being a 2x All Star is nice but is that the bar we are setting for Webber here? Webber fans like to talk about how he would be in the same tier as Duncan/Garnett/Dirk if he wasn't robbed of a ring but he couldn't be more impactful than a mere All Star?
If Miller was so great, why is no Webber fan ever pushing Miller as a top 100 player too?
Miller was a really good player. That’s not a knock on Webber.

Lastly, I’m going to go with the HOF coach. He put Webber back in the starting line post injury. Immediately if I recall correctly. Why? Why do that for a team that’s humming along? Because he didn’t want to just win more games…he wanted a title and knew without Webber he could not get one. Turns out he was right.

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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#17 » by LA Bird » Wed Jan 3, 2024 4:24 am

SNPA wrote:The usual path of every Webber discussion:
1. Webber led title contending teams while averaging 25 ppg
-> Volume scoring by itself without efficiency doesn't mean much Works great if you are winning at a high level, are a title contender and playing arguably the most beautiful brand of basketball.

The Kings also won at a high level and played a beautiful brand of basketball without Webber. What benefit is Webber bringing to his team by chucking 20 shots every game?

2. The Kings needed Webber to play that role to be successful
-> 04 Kings had their best offense ever without Webber You just jumped ahead five years. Look at the 1999 team, look at the 2004 team. Miller had more talent, a prime Peja and Adelman had numerous seasons to hone the offense to perfection. Miller isn’t just an all star either, he is an all star with massive skill overlap.

We are talking about the title contending teams, not an early Kings team with negative SRS that wasn't successful in the first place.
Miller is still a player who nobody has in the top 100. If Webber has so much overlap with him, why should he belong in the top 100?

3. WOWY doesn't work when Webber's replacement was an All Star with similar skills
-> 01-03 Kings were 6+ SRS in 50 games without Webber Its a system offense. It’s designed to be next man up and work. Petrie was always looking for versatile players who could slide in…he was very successful at that. That’s not a knock on Webber. It’s a credit to Petrie and Rick.

So we have gone from Webber being replaceable by an All Star with massive skill overlap to just generic versatile bench players? You do realize you are just digging a bigger hole for Webber, right?

4. All else fails, champion PPG and blame the refs.
People saw what happened. Webber can’t beat the business model.

Your mistake is assuming that winning the series would change how good Webber was as a basketball player. It doesn't. LeBron didn't magically turn into a better player because Allen made that 3 and he wouldn't have been a worse player if Allen had missed. All you have done is highlight the problem with ring counting and not evaluating players for how they actually played.

The Brad Miller point in particular is the biggest own goal someone could use to justify Webber's lack of impact:
• Miller literally proves you don't need a 20 FGA chucker in the Princeton offense for it be successful. His very existence undermines the idea that Webber was sacrificing his FG% and playing the way he did for the greater good of the team (never mind that Webber was inefficiently chucking on other teams too). Webber was leading a team to winning pre-injury. On a team many thought was the best or damn close. I’m not clear how that can be used against him. The earlier version of Sac wouldn’t have worked as well with Miller, he came along at the right time…credit Petrie again.

You credit Webber with leading the team to success but at the same time admit he is easily replaceable by bench players. I am not using team success against Webber - I am just not blindly rewarding him for playing on a 60 win team when the team does ust as well without him.

• Miller being a 2x All Star is nice but is that the bar we are setting for Webber here? Webber fans like to talk about how he would be in the same tier as Duncan/Garnett/Dirk if he wasn't robbed of a ring but he couldn't be more impactful than a mere All Star? If Miller was so great, why is no Webber fan ever pushing Miller as a top 100 player too?
Miller was a really good player. That’s not a knock on Webber.

It's absolutely a knock if you want to compare Webber to the likes of Duncan/Garnett/Dirk. There are many really good players in NBA history who won't make the top 100. Brad Miller was a really good player but is he top 100 in your list?

Lastly, I’m going to go with the HOF coach. He put Webber back in the starting line post injury. Immediately if I recall correctly. Why? Why do that for a team that’s humming along? Because he didn’t want to just win more games…he wanted a title and knew without Webber he could not get one. Turns out he was right.

Low hanging fruit but it turns out he couldn't get a title with Webber either.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#18 » by kcktiny » Wed Jan 3, 2024 4:50 am

Cheeks:

He was also pretty consistently the third best player on the team


Certainly no insult to Cheeks, being 3rd best to Julius Erving, Bobby Jones, and Moses Malone.

he was never a top five guard in any given year


He was a top PG.

despite his prime occurring during a relatively weak era of guard play


Whoa what?

In just the 6 year time span I referenced (1978-79 to 1983-84) there was:

Mo Cheeks
Magic Johnson
George Gervin
Dennis Johnson
Gus Williams
World B. Free
Michael Ray Richardson
Sidney Moncrief
Michael Cooper
David Thompson
Paul Westphal
Andrew Toney
Isiah Thomas
Walter Davis
Rolando Blackman

Weak era? Who you kidding? More like the golden age of basketball for guards.

nor any kind-of franchise centrepiece.


Cheeks' first decade in the league he played more minutes than any other sixers player, almost 3000 more minutes (like another full season). A standout defender that threw for the second most assists among all players in the league during that time while grabbing the - by far - most steals.

Sounds like a centerpiece or cornerstone of the 76ers franchise over a long time to me.

He is properly rated as an occasional all-star in a secondary/tertiary role on good teams.


Cheeks is the second or third best PG in the 80s after Magic Johnson. Much better shooter and far better defender than Isiah Thomas.

I agree Jrue makes for something of a good modern comparison with Dennis Johnson, especially if — as many may currently expect — Boston wins the title this year.


Jrue Holiday was the starting PG on the champion Milwaukee Bucks in 2020-21. All-defensive team five times, three times all-defensive 1st team.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#19 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Jan 3, 2024 5:31 am

Thoughts on more guys being discussed:

Bill Sharman: There's a part of me that wants to rank Sharman ahead of teammate Cousy and many others. We see the shooting efficiency as an off-guard and we know how valuable that can be, and how overrated a ball dominant point guard can be in comparison when he chucks badly.

But all of that is narrative. When it comes to what's objective Cousy played the bigger role, played for longer, and the WOWY sides with him too. I'm left feeling that Sharman may have been able to be more valuable than Cousy if used in a particular way, but that as used, Cousy had the greater career.

Now, Sharman being below Cousy doesn't mean he absolutely should not be Top 100...but I am more impressed with Cliff Hagan, Bob Davies & Al Cervi than Cousy, and I'm not sure I'm going to try to champion Davies or Cousy in this project.

DJ-type players. Enjoyed this, and yeah I think Jrue is a guy who warrants consideration. Quite frankly, had the Bucks lived up to their regular season last year with Jrue playing similar primacy, I thought Jrue probably would be a guy I'd champion. As is, I probably won't this time around, but depending on how things go, I may champion him in 2026. Crazy how well he's aged.

DJ himself of course didn't age quite as well - DJ peaked young, and Jrue has peaked old - but DJ continued to be a vital piece for a top tier contender for quite a while.

It's been interesting seeing DJ fall out of favor over the years on this project particularly compared to teammates Sikma & Gus. The arguments in that direction have honestly been pretty good, but I always feel like they stem from a skepticism that DJ could have really been "that good" on defense, and while DJ's no Bill Russell, being possibly the best defensive guard of all-time is no small thing.

Mookie Blaylock - is part of an intriguing context with those '90s Hawks. You've got a number of great players, but I think the 3 most relevant are Dikembe Mutombo, Mookie, and Steve Smith. The weird thing is that I think you can argue that they were all at their best while playing together, and in that time period Mookie seems to have been the most valuable of the 3...yet I think I'd take both Mutombo and Smith's careers over Blaylock. And while one might just shrug over longevity, there's a bigger concern for me about Blaylock pertaining to impact resiliency across context,

What do I mean by this? Well, consider that Mookie was a guy who tended to miss a lot of shots on offense, and gamble on defense. Surround him with bigs who can help with rebounding and second-line defense, and maybe these things don't hurt as bad when they go wrong. Maybe that makes Mookie the most plus-minus-impactful player of the bunch...but maybe it's actually harder and more costly to get such a supporting cast than it is to get a Mookie-or-better point guard. And that may have had something to do with Mookie's career falling off hard after Atlanta compared to Mutombo & Smith.

Anyway, I say all of this not really to bury Mookie as a candidate, though I know it's arguing against him, but in the opportunity the example avails us to consider:

In what situations is your most impactful player not your franchise player?

I think the two clearest situations are 1) age/health, and 2) interpersonal toxicity. And this is another one.

On Mo Cheeks only being the 3rd best guy on his team and thus not really a star. I find myself wanting to "Yes, but..." here, so I will a bit, but the point basically stands in premise: Cheeks clearly isn't an insane peak guy compared to the guys we've been talking about in general.

I do think it's important not to get too caught up in #1, #2, #3 enumeration. When Mo was out there, he wasn't standing around waiting for his better to do something harder which would allow him to be useful. Mo pops when you watch him because he's moving so fast and so quickly. He's not the 3rd best guy at the stuff he's doing out there, he's the best on his team at what he's doing, and having him do what he does as one of your 5 main guys works really well.

This also to say that I think it's hard not to compare these different players of a similar mold and ask how they'd do in each other's place. I don't think Mookie would fare as well as Mo on those 76er teams, and I think it entirely possible that Mo would make those Hawk teams better. So the fact that Mookie can be said to be a #1 while Cheeks is more of a #3 doesn't matter that much to me then.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#20 » by trelos6 » Wed Jan 3, 2024 6:02 am

A couple of guys I’m higher on than most.

Neil Johnston. Obv. Era plays a huge part here.
Larry Nance
Shawn Marion
Terry Porter

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