A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project

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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#21 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Wed Jan 3, 2024 8:15 am

Doctor MJ wrote:Love the thread idea. I'm going to talk about some of the guys that I'd be most likely to consider "championing" based on my impression of where I stand compared to most.

Tiny & DJ - So, I feel like I'm higher on both these guys than most.

I mention Tiny because I think he was pretty legit. I mean, let the league in PPG & APG with the best ORtg in the league, and then played a supporting role on a champion? Why exactly would we put Iverson above him other than an assertion that Iverson's league was way stronger? If we're just talking about who was the more effective basketball player when they played, isn't Tiny the answer?


Like I said, the thing that gives me pause about Tiny is the absolute dearth of team success during his prime years, and the fact that there were so few prime years - even guys like Mullin and King had more prime/elite years.

As for him vs Iverson...do Archibald's two peak years look statistically better than any season in Iverson's career? Maybe. But Iverson's much-criticized efficiency is only -0.9 rTS for his career, so it's not terrible...league average range, and he did it for a lot longer, and he had a Finals run as the #1 guy, so...I can see the argument either way TBH.

And I mention DJ here because DJ was an upgrade over Tiny for the Celtics. Now, he was also 6 years younger, but given that DJ was arguably the greatest defensive guard in history, I don't think there's really much doubt that DJ is the guy you'd prefer if you aren't looking for someone to dominate the scoring. Then you recall that DJ's peak achievement came in Seattle as the Finals MVP - and arguably MVP - of the champs. Doesn't it seem like DJ has the more accomplished career?


I think you could easily argue that Gus Williams should've won that Finals MVP. But yeah, I mean, DJ played 5000+ more playoff minutes than Tiny did, so in terms of accomplishment, DJ has it. But I do think Tiny probably peaked higher. In general though, it's like you said, so much of DJ's impact comes from defense, and there's just not much data to go by for defensive impact before the 90s.

DeBusschere - I'm not sure if I'm actually higher on Dave than most, but I do respect him as someone who clearly played a bigger part in New York than Monroe or Lucas. All guys played on other teams ahead of time and I wouldn't feel strongly about DeBusschere over the other guys based on their pre-NY careers, but I also don't think these other two guys were doing anything pre-NY that really merits effusive praise up there with being one of the 3 main guys on a champion.


As do I(with regard to the underlined), but you could say the same thing about Bill Bradley.

WRT Pearl, he was a part of the 71 Bullets' Finals run(though his playoff numbers weren't great) before coming to New York, and he was a really important part of the Knicks' 73 title run(second highest WS/48 in the playoffs after Frazier).

Penny - I don't necessarily have a problem with him missing the Top 100 due to longevity, but I'll say I was pretty shocked to realize that Penny really seems like the best player on the Magic during Shaq's best years there based on the +/-. I was so used to Kobe looking far worse than Shaq I assumed all such guards would be so disappointing, but no, Penny was better than that.


I assume you're referring to the Pollack data(not sure where else +/- for those years exists)? Based on that what I see is

93-94 - Shaq +7.7 and Penny +5.2
94-95 - Shaq +12.0 and Penny +12.1
95-96 - Shaq +10.2 and Penny +17.1

So Shaq leads one year and is one tenth of a point behind Penny in another. Only in one year does Penny have a significant advantage.

That's to say I'm extremely skeptical of the notion that Penny was more important to those teams than Shaq. I find it nearly impossible to believe.

Mullin - yeah, I think we shouldn't dismiss him lightly. He was a sign of the league to come.


Glad to hear it, and I hope he'll have your support in the nomination process down the line.

Chet the Jet - very tempting guy given his place on the '67 76ers and his scoring volume & efficiency. I think a conversation involving him, Greer & Cunningham is warranted.


You might think it's a crude measure, but for their careers:

Walker - .168 WS/48 RS, .133 WS/48 PO
Greer - .124 WS/48 RS, .096 WS/48 PO
Cunningham - .141 WS/48 RS, .101 WS/48 PO

Walker not only topped both of them in WS/48 and TS Add on the 67 Sixers, but also on the 69 Sixers who were a top three team that season. And neither Greer nor Cunningham ever did what Walker did as the #1 on those Bulls teams.

I'm honestly asking, what's the case for Greer over Walker? Walker's got scoring over him pretty clearly when efficiency is considered(also probably a better rebounder on the whole), so was Greer an especially impactful playmaker or defender?

Divac - warrants serious discussion. I absolutely have him above Webber.


I have a tremendous amount of respect not just for Vlade, for that whole foursome from the Yugoslavian national team of that era that ended up coming to the NBA - I think they were really important, along with Detlef Schrempf(is he a guy we should be talking about?), in paving the way for other European guys like Dirk, Manu, Peja, all the way to Jokic and Doncic.

I think highly of Vlade, Toni Kukoc, Petrovic, and even poor Dino Radja who had the plain bad luck of landing on a terrible, dysfunctional post-Bird/McHale Celtics team while Vlade got Magic, Toni got MJ, and Petrovic got Drexler and then #1 pick Derrick Coleman.

Anyway, WRT Vlade, I feel like everyone associates him with the Kings, but I do hope people don't forget his early career with the Lakers, particularly how well he played in his two years with Magic - his advanced playoff numbers in 90 and 91 are good, though 90 looks like an outlier.

All that said, taking him over Webber is probably a controversial statement, but I can see the argument.

The Hawk - exceptional peak, hurt badly by longevity. Were I making a list that wasn't NBA-focused, given all the competitive basketball he played before the ABA, he'd be quite high on my list. Like, Top 25-ish, feel that strongly about it, but people have argued against his longevity in the past very effectively and I can't really say they're wrong. Unlike someone like Bill Walton, he wasn't someone who was valuable in all his situations health-permitting.


I think if you think Walton is Top 100, then I can see thinking the same of Hawkins, but the question is how legit was his competition in the ABA and before? I don't know enough about him to have an informed answer.

Dandridge - yeah, I think he's really, really solid. I'm almost ready to argue him against Unseld & Hayes...but not quite.


Nothing against Dandridge, and I'm sorry to keep coming back to him, but again, what is the case for Dandridge over Walker? They seem like similar-ish players to me, but Walker looks better, except that Dandridge got to play for two notable teams while Walker played for one and then had to go to a Bulls team that is, for most people, forgotten to history. I guess it's possible that Dandridge may have been an exceptional defender or something else that doesn't show up in the box.

Larry Nance - I'm not really skeptical of Price & Daugherty, but I think I'm pretty set on championing Nance before the other two.


I have no strong feelings either way about Nance, but I will say as a whole I respect those Cavs teams a lot, I think all three of those guys were really good, and as huge a fan as I am of Jordan and the 90s Bulls, it's a shame that the context most people remember those Cavs teams in is Jordan beating them over and over rather than the context of them being a tough, smart team in their own right that posted some pretty strong SRS numbers - 7.95(1989)/5.34(1992)/6.30(1993).

Bill Sharman: There's a part of me that wants to rank Sharman ahead of teammate Cousy and many others. We see the shooting efficiency as an off-guard and we know how valuable that can be, and how overrated a ball dominant point guard can be in comparison when he chucks badly.

But all of that is narrative. When it comes to what's objective Cousy played the bigger role, played for longer, and the WOWY sides with him too. I'm left feeling that Sharman may have been able to be more valuable than Cousy if used in a particular way, but that as used, Cousy had the greater career.

Now, Sharman being below Cousy doesn't mean he absolutely should not be Top 100...but I am more impressed with Cliff Hagan, Bob Davies & Al Cervi than Cousy, and I'm not sure I'm going to try to champion Davies or Cousy in this project.


I would just say that Sharman often - not always, but often - had higher WS/48 than Cousy, both in RS and PO. And Cousy only played two more years than Sharman. Not that I think it's an either/or thing. I'd let them both in the Top 100.

I expected you to be in Sharman's corner, because the other day people were posting depth charts of the best players not yet inducted at each position, and I'm pretty sure you had Sharman on yours at SG.

Also...not sure what makes Davies or Cervi better than Cousy.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#22 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Wed Jan 3, 2024 8:20 am

LA Bird wrote:
SNPA wrote:Good write up. This contains all the classic arguments as well as mistakes of the anti Webber crowd.

One of the criticisms often leveled about Webber is that he is overrated as a volume scorer because his efficiency leaves something to be desired. I don't dispute this, but I will say that while his efficiency leaves something to be desired, it's not terrible. In his prime years, it was usually hovering at either just above or just below league average. Webber played at the elbow to facilitate the Princeton. He was fitting into the offense, it wasn’t an offense specific to him like many first options. He was playing for team success in Sac during his prime and it worked.

So while the Kings were better with him in both 02 and 03, they were still plenty good without him, and the without sample in 2002 isn't insignificant either.
Yes, it was a stacked team with a legendary offense. Of course the team was still good without him.

Anyone who is down on Webber would pose the question - if he can apparently be so easily replaced with Brad Miller, is he really a Top 100 guy? You mean multi time all-star Brad Miller? This is a flawed analogy but it’s like replacing Durant with McGrady and be down on Durant because the team didn’t fall apart.

The counter might be - because they were a stacked and unselfish team with a deep bench(i.e. pieces they could move for another starter) and a HOF coach, they were uniquely set up to absorb the loss of a star player. But that's admittedly the view of someone who wants to see it in the best light. What other light is there? It was a stacked team.

Add the fact that in the five years they played together before Webber's injury, Vlade Divac had a higher RAPM four times(5.83 vs 3.38 1999, 5.85 vs 1.85 2000, 3.49 vs 2.83 2002, 3.49 vs 2.63 2003), and that Doug Christie and Scot Pollard both had higher RAPMs than Webber in 2002-03(3.79 and 3.26 vs 2.63), it doesn't paint the most flattering impact portrait in the world. Radom advance stat against a few random players.

Conclusion: a first option on the best offense who rebounds, runs, passes and plays decent defense. A guy who lead a team that took Shaq/Kobe/Phil/3 Zebras to defeat.

The usual path of every Webber discussion:
1. Webber led title contending teams while averaging 25 ppg
-> Volume scoring by itself without efficiency doesn't mean much
2. The Kings needed Webber to play that role to be successful
-> 04 Kings had their best offense ever without Webber
3. WOWY doesn't work when Webber's replacement was an All Star with similar skills
-> 01-03 Kings were 6+ SRS in 50 games without Webber
4. All else fails, champion PPG and blame the refs.

The Brad Miller point in particular is the biggest own goal someone could use to justify Webber's lack of impact:
• Miller literally proves you don't need a 20 FGA chucker in the Princeton offense for it be successful. His very existence undermines the idea that Webber was sacrificing his FG% and playing the way he did for the greater good of the team (never mind that Webber was inefficiently chucking on other teams too).
• Miller being a 2x All Star is nice but is that the bar we are setting for Webber here? Webber fans like to talk about how he would be in the same tier as Duncan/Garnett/Dirk if he wasn't robbed of a ring but he couldn't be more impactful than a mere All Star?
If Miller was so great, why is no Webber fan ever pushing Miller as a top 100 player too?


I just want to point out that in my writeup about Webber in the OP, I specifically based my case mostly on all the stuff he did besides scoring. Maybe some people base their case fully on PPG, but not all of us.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#23 » by AEnigma » Wed Jan 3, 2024 9:16 am

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:I'm extremely skeptical of the notion that Penny was more important to those teams than Shaq. I find it nearly impossible to believe.

It probably depends on the perception of rookie Shaq and “peak Shaq”. If Shaq meaningfully improved from his rookie form or did not meaningfully improve that much under Phil Jackson, then I agree it is near impossible. If Shaq was basically the same player as either, then it is at least conceivable.

I am really only willing to entertain the argument in 1996 specifically, when Penny’s production peaked while Shaq’s dipped — and unfortunately for Penny, that stretch of MVP-level play was disrupted in the postseason.

I'm honestly asking, what's the case for Greer over Walker? Walker's got scoring over him pretty clearly(also probably a better rebounder on the whole), so was Greer an especially impactful playmaker or defender?

Decent defender for a guard. Definitely a better playmaker, but not at the level of a real point guard.

Greer’s legacy is built on being the de facto third best guard in the league for several years, while Chet never had close to that reputation at the forward spot. Now, much of that is because efficiency was not particularly valued in that era, but I would not dismiss the possibility that Chet may have been a little more akin to a Cedric Maxwell type than to a true star.

Detlef Schrempf(is he a guy we should be talking about?)

Like the idea and sentiment but again too rich for my tastes.

Nothing against Dandridge, and I'm sorry to keep coming back to him, but again, what is the case for Dandridge over Walker? They seem like similar-ish players to me, but Walker looks better, except that Dandridge got to play for two notable teams while Walker played for one and then had to go to a Bulls team that is, for most people, forgotten to history. I guess it's possible that Dandridge may have been an exceptional defender or something else that doesn't show up in the box.

Dandridge was a great wing defender on the Bullets and pretty fine to good before then. Famously outplayed Erving on both ends in 1978. Compared to Chet, Dandridge was a better passer and was better in transition. Could almost characterise him as a proto-Pippen, while Chet was more of a… hm… “consistent all-star version of Calvin Natt”?
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#24 » by LA Bird » Wed Jan 3, 2024 7:57 pm

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
LA Bird wrote:.


I just want to point out that in my writeup about Webber in the OP, I specifically based my case mostly on all the stuff he did besides scoring. Maybe some people base their case fully on PPG, but not all of us.

You did a better job in presenting both sides but the arguments for Webber were still not convincing IMO.

Elite passer
Solid defender
Good rebounder

Agree with all these points - Webber certainly provided some non scoring value. But so does every other great player in NBA history. If we really ignore scoring, is Webber better than Horford or Marc Gasol? How about even guys like Sam Lacey or Brad Miller? Webber was a versatile player but ultimately what puts him multiple tiers above all those names (at least in general public opinion) is the fact that he was a far greater volume scorer and 25 ppg > 15 ppg. You may not have focused on Webber's scoring in your writeup but there is a reason you included Webber but not Horford in this thread and it's not because Webber does the non scoring stuff better. He is higher due to his scoring but the issue with rewarding Webber's volume scoring is that we've seen how little impact it had on the Kings offense when he was replaced by a 14 ppg Brad Miller in 2004, or even worse, just his bench in 2001-03.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#25 » by SNPA » Thu Jan 4, 2024 2:41 am

LA Bird wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
LA Bird wrote:.


I just want to point out that in my writeup about Webber in the OP, I specifically based my case mostly on all the stuff he did besides scoring. Maybe some people base their case fully on PPG, but not all of us.

You did a better job in presenting both sides but the arguments for Webber were still not convincing IMO.

Elite passer
Solid defender
Good rebounder

Agree with all these points - Webber certainly provided some non scoring value. But so does every other great player in NBA history. If we really ignore scoring, is Webber better than Horford or Marc Gasol? How about even guys like Sam Lacey or Brad Miller? Webber was a versatile player but ultimately what puts him multiple tiers above all those names (at least in general public opinion) is the fact that he was a far greater volume scorer and 25 ppg > 15 ppg. You may not have focused on Webber's scoring in your writeup but there is a reason you included Webber but not Horford in this thread and it's not because Webber does the non scoring stuff better. He is higher due to his scoring but the issue with rewarding Webber's volume scoring is that we've seen how little impact it had on the Kings offense when he was replaced by a 14 ppg Brad Miller in 2004, or even worse, just his bench in 2001-03.

You can’t just ignore the context. Miller comes later. Peja is better. The team is better. The system is better. We’re talking about taking a handful of shots from Webber and dispersing them to other guys.

Webber is getting discounted because Petrie and Rick were really great at their jobs. Peja’s backup at one point was Hedo. Does that make Peja worse?

Your argument is against guys who put up big scoring on average efficiency on blah to bad teams. That argument doesn’t work for the leading scorer on the best team in the league. No coach is going to ask the leading scorer on the best team to do anything different.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#26 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jan 4, 2024 6:06 am

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Love the thread idea. I'm going to talk about some of the guys that I'd be most likely to consider "championing" based on my impression of where I stand compared to most.

Tiny & DJ - So, I feel like I'm higher on both these guys than most.

I mention Tiny because I think he was pretty legit. I mean, let the league in PPG & APG with the best ORtg in the league, and then played a supporting role on a champion? Why exactly would we put Iverson above him other than an assertion that Iverson's league was way stronger? If we're just talking about who was the more effective basketball player when they played, isn't Tiny the answer?


Like I said, the thing that gives me pause about Tiny is the absolute dearth of team success during his prime years, and the fact that there were so few prime years - even guys like Mullin and King had more prime/elite years.

As for him vs Iverson...do Archibald's two peak years look statistically better than any season in Iverson's career? Maybe. But Iverson's much-criticized efficiency is only -0.9 rTS for his career, so it's not terrible...league average range, and he did it for a lot longer, and he had a Finals run as the #1 guy, so...I can see the argument either way TBH.


I do understand the pause.

Re: AI rTS not terrible. Right but Tiny was up there with Kareem and way ahead of the other guard's of his time.

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
And I mention DJ here because DJ was an upgrade over Tiny for the Celtics. Now, he was also 6 years younger, but given that DJ was arguably the greatest defensive guard in history, I don't think there's really much doubt that DJ is the guy you'd prefer if you aren't looking for someone to dominate the scoring. Then you recall that DJ's peak achievement came in Seattle as the Finals MVP - and arguably MVP - of the champs. Doesn't it seem like DJ has the more accomplished career?


I think you could easily argue that Gus Williams should've won that Finals MVP. But yeah, I mean, DJ played 5000+ more playoff minutes than Tiny did, so in terms of accomplishment, DJ has it. But I do think Tiny probably peaked higher. In general though, it's like you said, so much of DJ's impact comes from defense, and there's just not much data to go by for defensive impact before the 90s.


I think many on here would agree on Gus.

I agree that Tiny peaked higher, but career-wise, I think it's DJ.

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
DeBusschere - I'm not sure if I'm actually higher on Dave than most, but I do respect him as someone who clearly played a bigger part in New York than Monroe or Lucas. All guys played on other teams ahead of time and I wouldn't feel strongly about DeBusschere over the other guys based on their pre-NY careers, but I also don't think these other two guys were doing anything pre-NY that really merits effusive praise up there with being one of the 3 main guys on a champion.


As do I(with regard to the underlined), but you could say the same thing about Bill Bradley.

WRT Pearl, he was a part of the 71 Bullets' Finals run(though his playoff numbers weren't great) before coming to New York, and he was a really important part of the Knicks' 73 title run(second highest WS/48 in the playoffs after Frazier).


Re: could say the same thing with Bradley. Absolutely, as well as Dick Barnett. It's clear who the 5 most import Knicks of the Golden Age were imho, and neither Monroe nor Lucas make the cut.

Re: Monroe important in '73 run with 2nd highest WS/48. He was important in that run, but when you bring up WS/48, I can't help but not that DeBusschere was playing considerably more minutes despite being 4 years older. That alone doesn't put Dave ahead, but the fact that Dave was critical to the first Knick chip too while Monroe wasn't around does place the Knick pecking order here pretty clearly. I think if you're impressed enough by his Bullet years I could see favoring Monroe, but I tend to think that his impact was outpaced by his style.

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
Penny - I don't necessarily have a problem with him missing the Top 100 due to longevity, but I'll say I was pretty shocked to realize that Penny really seems like the best player on the Magic during Shaq's best years there based on the +/-. I was so used to Kobe looking far worse than Shaq I assumed all such guards would be so disappointing, but no, Penny was better than that.


I assume you're referring to the Pollack data(not sure where else +/- for those years exists)? Based on that what I see is

93-94 - Shaq +7.7 and Penny +5.2
94-95 - Shaq +12.0 and Penny +12.1
95-96 - Shaq +10.2 and Penny +17.1

So Shaq leads one year and is one tenth of a point behind Penny in another. Only in one year does Penny have a significant advantage.

That's to say I'm extremely skeptical of the notion that Penny was more important to those teams than Shaq. I find it nearly impossible to believe.


I'd note that the Magic only really became significant as a contender in '94-95, so you're really just talking about '94-95 & '95-96 as the core Magic contending years, and in those years Penny had a slight edge one year and a major edge the second. Perfectly fine not to be convinced that Penny was the more valuable player on that alone, but if the question is who had the better impact profile in contending years based on the data you present, it's indisputably Penny.

I think it's also worth noting that Penny was a rookie in '93-94. So yeah, Shaq was absolutely the MVP of the team that year on there way to getting swept out of the 1st round, and it was the emergence of Penny as a superstar-level player in his 2nd year that lifted the team to contention. (Shout out to the arrival of Horace Grant and to the recognition that Dennis Scott could shoot 3's as well, but those guys were tertiary to the Big 2.)

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
Chet the Jet - very tempting guy given his place on the '67 76ers and his scoring volume & efficiency. I think a conversation involving him, Greer & Cunningham is warranted.


You might think it's a crude measure, but for their careers:

Walker - .168 WS/48 RS, .133 WS/48 PO
Greer - .124 WS/48 RS, .096 WS/48 PO
Cunningham - .141 WS/48 RS, .101 WS/48 PO

Walker not only topped both of them in WS/48 and TS Add on the 67 Sixers, but also on the 69 Sixers who were a top three team that season. And neither Greer nor Cunningham ever did what Walker did as the #1 on those Bulls teams.

I'm honestly asking, what's the case for Greer over Walker? Walker's got scoring over him pretty clearly when efficiency is considered(also probably a better rebounder on the whole), so was Greer an especially impactful playmaker or defender?


Oh, the box score really makes Walker look like the best of the 3, and I'm not really looking to push back against that on principle.

In terms of the case for Greer, well, what's objectively clear is that Greer had the higher primacy role and played a lot more. Given that Greer was the more respected player at the time in general, and that this is taking place in the context of arguably the biggest strategic coaching improvement of all-time relating to Wilt, I'm cautious about drawing a conclusion that implies "Hannum was wrong here."

But I do think it's possible that Walker could have been used extremely effectively in a considerably higher primacy role at higher minutes, and if we think that is indeed the case, well, then it becomes hard not to choose Walker over Greer.

The Cunningham comparison is a bit different because Cunningham peaked later. But similarly there's a situation where Cunningham got a higher primacy role, was trusted for playmaking, and allowed to do his thing with meh efficiency.

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
Divac - warrants serious discussion. I absolutely have him above Webber.


I have a tremendous amount of respect not just for Vlade, for that whole foursome from the Yugoslavian national team of that era that ended up coming to the NBA - I think they were really important, along with Detlef Schrempf(is he a guy we should be talking about?), in paving the way for other European guys like Dirk, Manu, Peja, all the way to Jokic and Doncic.

I think highly of Vlade, Toni Kukoc, Petrovic, and even poor Dino Radja who had the plain bad luck of landing on a terrible, dysfunctional post-Bird/McHale Celtics team while Vlade got Magic, Toni got MJ, and Petrovic got Drexler and then #1 pick Derrick Coleman.

Anyway, WRT Vlade, I feel like everyone associates him with the Kings, but I do hope people don't forget his early career with the Lakers, particularly how well he played in his two years with Magic - his advanced playoff numbers in 90 and 91 are good, though 90 looks like an outlier.

All that said, taking him over Webber is probably a controversial statement, but I can see the argument.


I definitely respect all those Euro pioneers, but that's not why I have Divac as a candidate here.

What about Schrempf? I don't think we ever have seriously considered him, but he's reasonable to bring up. Back in the day it was pretty clear that Payton & Kemp were considered the two main stars, and they were the two guys making the 100 here until Kemp fell off.

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
The Hawk - exceptional peak, hurt badly by longevity. Were I making a list that wasn't NBA-focused, given all the competitive basketball he played before the ABA, he'd be quite high on my list. Like, Top 25-ish, feel that strongly about it, but people have argued against his longevity in the past very effectively and I can't really say they're wrong. Unlike someone like Bill Walton, he wasn't someone who was valuable in all his situations health-permitting.


I think if you think Walton is Top 100, then I can see thinking the same of Hawkins, but the question is how legit was his competition in the ABA and before? I don't know enough about him to have an informed answer.


I think both guys are debatable.

Re: how legit was competition ABA & before? Well, that's a complicated thing to answer, but let's start from his first year in the NBA and work backwards.

Consider that when Hawk arrives in Phoenix, they have existed for only one year and were god awful. The team sees a nearly 7 point SRS jump in Hawk's first year in the league including moving the ORtg from 11th to 3rd in the league. Hawk would get named All-NBA 1st team, and would have a TS Add among the league leaders. This happened despite the fact that there were struggles with coaching and the previously established alpha Gail Goodrich. Eventually Jerry Colangelo would fire the coach (Red Kerr), take his job, and specifically make clear that the offense would run through Hawkins.

I feel like this sets a baseline for understanding how good Hawk must have been based on what we could see most clearly in the NBA. He was without question a Top 10 player, and I'd argue for him as a Top 5 player.

With this in mind, regardless of the level of the ABA, what is pretty universally agreed upon is that he was at his best before his big injury the previous year in the ABA. As in, while he was still great in the NBA, he would never be the same player again after that injury, and the big thing here is that prime Hawk was an incredible physical outlier in terms agility/hops/etc. Was he more of an outlier than, say, Elgin Baylor? It's at least debatable, and that's what he lost before he got to the NBA. The Hawk who played in the NBA was not the Hawk that flew, and yet was still at the very least a Top 10 player.

On to the ABA details. Let's start by noting that it was pretty clear cut that Hawk was the best player the ABA saw until the Erving era in their estimation, and that included Rick Barry and Zelmo Beaty, so that once again puts a baseline on how low Hawk could be.

That said there's no real doubt that the early ABA was weak and I'm not sure if there's much else to say there. Had Hawk not impressed as much as he did upon his arrival in the NBA, I think there'd be more of a question of whether he could do his thing against NBA competition, but as is, I'd say his technique worked quite well.

What really made my eyes bug out when I started analyzing Hawk's ABA performance was the fact that he was actually playing something of a pass-first role from the center position, and yet still leading the league in scoring by virtue of his extreme efficiency. He led his team in APG but not FGA/g despite playing way more minutes than anyone else. This blew my mind because I was under the impression that Hawk was a link in the chain from Baylor to Erving, but neither of those guys showed the kind of tendency toward great playmaking and great shooting efficiency, so what was up?

This is where we get into the phenomenon I call "Big Hand Basketball" that was a part of Harlem Globetrotter culture. Big hands allow you to do all sorts of fake and trick passes that drove audiences around the world wild, and that's where Hawk learned the techniques, with Sweetwater Clifton as the specific mentor he credits, and with Meadowlark Lemon looming large in the background. Connie had a contentious relationship with Meadowlark and what he represented. Connie did not like using moves in Globetrotter games that wouldn't work in a real competitive game, and he felt Meadowlark represented a loss of actual competitive basketball ability.

Hawkins solution for this was to continue to play in the schoolyards of NYC whenever he had the opportunity, because that's where he cut his teeth as a player, and it was arguably the most competitive basketball played in the world at that time outside of the NBA due to it being the go-to place for NBA stars to play when they weren't playing Association basketball.

It has to be noted that playing in those schoolyards against NBA players was something Hawkins was doing in high school, and that from Hawkins' perspective, the reason why white players mostly couldn't compete, was that kids like him were basically playing ball in that competitive space constantly. When the school day ended, that's where you'd fine them into the night every night.

And in this time period where NYC was the absolutely epicenter of top prospect development, I would say that Hawk was the most celebrated young star the City produced until he got supplanted by Lew Alcindor who has held that title belt ever since.

Let's fast forward a bit to the brief run of the ABL, the first pro league to try to compete with the NBA, and also the first to have the 3. The ABL stole some impressive talent from the NBA, but I think the bigger thing to understand is that the NBA through most of the '60s was not expanding the size of their league to scale with the growing talent pool, and disproportionately the talent they were missing out on was Black. For the most part the NBA got the superstar talents, but they kept their role players mostly white for a time out of fear of alienating their fanbase. That meant that a league looking to take the basketball talent the NBA left had plenty of talent to pick from, and that talent was more likely to be Black than what you might guess looking at the NBA at the time.

Hawk of course would come right in as a rookie - just a year out of high school, having not been able to play college ball the prior year - and win the MVP, and from there his absence in the NBA made him not just an NYC legend, but something bigger.

Alright, I think that's enough rambling, and I'll cut myself off.

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
Dandridge - yeah, I think he's really, really solid. I'm almost ready to argue him against Unseld & Hayes...but not quite.


Nothing against Dandridge, and I'm sorry to keep coming back to him, but again, what is the case for Dandridge over Walker? They seem like similar-ish players to me, but Walker looks better, except that Dandridge got to play for two notable teams while Walker played for one and then had to go to a Bulls team that is, for most people, forgotten to history. I guess it's possible that Dandridge may have been an exceptional defender or something else that doesn't show up in the box.


I don't really have a problem with Walker over Dandridge, but Dandridge had a monstrous defensive reputation I wouldn't brush past lightly.

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
Bill Sharman: There's a part of me that wants to rank Sharman ahead of teammate Cousy and many others. We see the shooting efficiency as an off-guard and we know how valuable that can be, and how overrated a ball dominant point guard can be in comparison when he chucks badly.

But all of that is narrative. When it comes to what's objective Cousy played the bigger role, played for longer, and the WOWY sides with him too. I'm left feeling that Sharman may have been able to be more valuable than Cousy if used in a particular way, but that as used, Cousy had the greater career.

Now, Sharman being below Cousy doesn't mean he absolutely should not be Top 100...but I am more impressed with Cliff Hagan, Bob Davies & Al Cervi than Cousy, and I'm not sure I'm going to try to champion Davies or Cousy in this project.


I would just say that Sharman often - not always, but often - had higher WS/48 than Cousy, both in RS and PO. And Cousy only played two more years than Sharman. Not that I think it's an either/or thing. I'd let them both in the Top 100.

I expected you to be in Sharman's corner, because the other day people were posting depth charts of the best players not yet inducted at each position, and I'm pretty sure you had Sharman on yours at SG.

Also...not sure what makes Davies or Cervi better than Cousy.


Yeah this is what I mean when I say that the narrative of Sharman being more valuable than Cousy makes sense to me, but I'm not seeing what I need to see to actually say I think it was so. Having a higher WS/48 is nice, but Cousy played the higher primacy role. Wouldn't matter to me if I saw Sharman having the clearly better WOWY with better longevity, but that's not what we see.

Re: Cousy vs Davies vs Cervi. So first off let me reiterate, I'm very leery of championing Davies or Cervi here. I expect Cousy will be on the list, and the other two won't be, and I'm really fine with that. I mean, Davies & Cervi had their peaks in the 1940s, and had their careers severely disrupted by the War.

But I do think it's worth understanding what I like about them in comparison to Cousy.

Cousy vs Davies is the most apples-to-apples comparison. Cousy really was "the next Davies". All of that floor generalship and flamboyance, those were the two guys in the NBA who did that. Cousy would have a tendency to call his own number more, and I think this along with him being "the next" let folks to think of him as an improved version of Davies in those early years.

But Cousy's efficiency really went to hell beyond a certain point (past age 28), while Davies was always efficient with his shooting his entire career (through age 35). To me this speaks to Davies having a better intuition for what the right play was than Cousy, including a more realistic sense of his own diminishing capacity.

Cousy does deserve it mentioned that the Celtics adopted a defensive style along with Russell that probably hurt ever Celtics' efficiency, but Cousy was considerably less efficient than teammates Ed Macauley and Bill Sharman even in the best of times, while calling his number quite a lot. I can forgive some of the poor efficiency for any of Red's guys, but I do think a point guard could have played in a way where Macauley & Sharman shot more and the point guard shot less, and if the point guard shot like Cousy, that probably would have been for the best.

Al Cervi is a bit of a different animal because there you're talking about a guy who at his best was a great scorer, a good playmaker, and a best-in-world defender. From what I can tell, the story of the first NBL season after WWII was Al Cervi of the Rochester Royals completely messing up the gameplan of the player who had been the dominant pro player of the 1940s prior to that point, Bobby McDermott of the Zollner Pistons. Cervi was just an absolute lock down defender who never let the best shooter in the world (McDermott) get the space he needed to get comfortable.

But Cervi was also the oldest of the bunch - making his pro debut in the 1930s, so we're talking about a guy who was already nearing 30 by the time he joined the Royals, and thus major longevity issues in terms of number of pro seasons.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#27 » by eminence » Thu Jan 4, 2024 1:51 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Re: Cousy vs Davies vs Cervi. So first off let me reiterate, I'm very leery of championing Davies or Cervi here. I expect Cousy will be on the list, and the other two won't be, and I'm really fine with that. I mean, Davies & Cervi had their peaks in the 1940s, and had their careers severely disrupted by the War.

But I do think it's worth understanding what I like about them in comparison to Cousy.

Cousy vs Davies is the most apples-to-apples comparison. Cousy really was "the next Davies". All of that floor generalship and flamboyance, those were the two guys in the NBA who did that. Cousy would have a tendency to call his own number more, and I think this along with him being "the next" let folks to think of him as an improved version of Davies in those early years.

But Cousy's efficiency really went to hell beyond a certain point (past age 28), while Davies was always efficient with his shooting his entire career (through age 35). To me this speaks to Davies having a better intuition for what the right play was than Cousy, including a more realistic sense of his own diminishing capacity.

Cousy does deserve it mentioned that the Celtics adopted a defensive style along with Russell that probably hurt ever Celtics' efficiency, but Cousy was considerably less efficient than teammates Ed Macauley and Bill Sharman even in the best of times, while calling his number quite a lot. I can forgive some of the poor efficiency for any of Red's guys, but I do think a point guard could have played in a way where Macauley & Sharman shot more and the point guard shot less, and if the point guard shot like Cousy, that probably would have been for the best.


There's not enough full games to really say, but I feel the Davies to Cousy similarities are overstated in contemporary sources.

The Royals pace from '51-'55 (BBref #s):
92.3 (11th of 11, #1 offense)
92.7 (8th of 10, #1 offense)
94.1 (4th of 10, #5 offense)
90.9 (5th of 9, #7 offense)
99.5 (8th of 8, #3 offense)

Celtics over the same period:
95.9 (8th of 11, #3 offense)
100.0 (1st of 10, #2 offense)
94.7 (3rd of 10, #1 offense)
93.0 (3rd of 9, #1 offense)
108.6 (1st of 8, #1 offense)

The great offense Royals of the late 40s early 50s (before starting to fade in '53) played at a slow methodical pace overall, while the Celtics really blitzed it out after Cousy's rookie year.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#28 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jan 4, 2024 6:45 pm

eminence wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Re: Cousy vs Davies vs Cervi. So first off let me reiterate, I'm very leery of championing Davies or Cervi here. I expect Cousy will be on the list, and the other two won't be, and I'm really fine with that. I mean, Davies & Cervi had their peaks in the 1940s, and had their careers severely disrupted by the War.

But I do think it's worth understanding what I like about them in comparison to Cousy.

Cousy vs Davies is the most apples-to-apples comparison. Cousy really was "the next Davies". All of that floor generalship and flamboyance, those were the two guys in the NBA who did that. Cousy would have a tendency to call his own number more, and I think this along with him being "the next" let folks to think of him as an improved version of Davies in those early years.

But Cousy's efficiency really went to hell beyond a certain point (past age 28), while Davies was always efficient with his shooting his entire career (through age 35). To me this speaks to Davies having a better intuition for what the right play was than Cousy, including a more realistic sense of his own diminishing capacity.

Cousy does deserve it mentioned that the Celtics adopted a defensive style along with Russell that probably hurt ever Celtics' efficiency, but Cousy was considerably less efficient than teammates Ed Macauley and Bill Sharman even in the best of times, while calling his number quite a lot. I can forgive some of the poor efficiency for any of Red's guys, but I do think a point guard could have played in a way where Macauley & Sharman shot more and the point guard shot less, and if the point guard shot like Cousy, that probably would have been for the best.


There's not enough full games to really say, but I feel the Davies to Cousy similarities are overstated in contemporary sources.

The Royals pace from '51-'55 (BBref #s):
92.3 (11th of 11, #1 offense)
92.7 (8th of 10, #1 offense)
94.1 (4th of 10, #5 offense)
90.9 (5th of 9, #7 offense)
99.5 (8th of 8, #3 offense)

Celtics over the same period:
95.9 (8th of 11, #3 offense)
100.0 (1st of 10, #2 offense)
94.7 (3rd of 10, #1 offense)
93.0 (3rd of 9, #1 offense)
108.6 (1st of 8, #1 offense)

The great offense Royals of the late 40s early 50s (before starting to fade in '53) played at a slow methodical pace overall, while the Celtics really blitzed it out after Cousy's rookie year.


Fascinating. I have to acknowledge I've never looked at bkref's pace numbers for the Royals because they literally aren't given for most years. I'm not saying they're wrong but:

Playing faster than everyone else was Davies' thing, to the point where his Royals teammates took some time to keep up with him. So style-wise, I'd still say he and Cousy were too peas in a pod.

What explains the Royals pace numbers then? Well some things to consider:

1. We didn't have the full box score back then, so we don't know how many of the rebounds were offensive and how many were defenses, and we also don't know the turnovers. It's thus possible that the team's pace was actually faster than estimated...though that would mean a lower ORtg and thus isn't necessarily an argument for Davies.

2. By the time we have bkref Pace numbers, Davies is in his 30s and is taking on less of a starring role in terms of scoring. It's possible that as he aged, he stopped pushing the pace as much.

3. By the time we have bkref Pace numbers, the lead scorer on the Royals is Arnie Risen, who is a big. This is a stark contrast to their 1945-46 championship year where the 3 most valuable players by the end of the season were all guys I would consider to be guards (Davies, Cervi, Red Holzman). It's possible that with the arrival of Mikan in the league and the Royals response of acquiring Risen, the offense began to play at a more plodding pace.

4. It's also possible that the Royals were simply overtaken by events driven by their success. Maybe their fast-pace play inspired other teams to play faster until eventually most were playing faster than the aging Royal core.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#29 » by eminence » Thu Jan 4, 2024 7:59 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Fascinating. I have to acknowledge I've never looked at bkref's pace numbers for the Royals because they literally aren't given for most years. I'm not saying they're wrong but:

Playing faster than everyone else was Davies' thing, to the point where his Royals teammates took some time to keep up with him. So style-wise, I'd still say he and Cousy were too peas in a pod.

What explains the Royals pace numbers then? Well some things to consider:

1. We didn't have the full box score back then, so we don't know how many of the rebounds were offensive and how many were defenses, and we also don't know the turnovers. It's thus possible that the team's pace was actually faster than estimated...though that would mean a lower ORtg and thus isn't necessarily an argument for Davies.

2. By the time we have bkref Pace numbers, Davies is in his 30s and is taking on less of a starring role in terms of scoring. It's possible that as he aged, he stopped pushing the pace as much.

3. By the time we have bkref Pace numbers, the lead scorer on the Royals is Arnie Risen, who is a big. This is a stark contrast to their 1945-46 championship year where the 3 most valuable players by the end of the season were all guys I would consider to be guards (Davies, Cervi, Red Holzman). It's possible that with the arrival of Mikan in the league and the Royals response of acquiring Risen, the offense began to play at a more plodding pace.

4. It's also possible that the Royals were simply overtaken by events driven by their success. Maybe their fast-pace play inspired other teams to play faster until eventually most were playing faster than the aging Royal core.


https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2013/12/estimating-pace-and-per-possession-ratings-1951-1973/

1. They are an estimate, but I'm fairly confident the Royals really were a slow paced team, they weren't just 11/11 in '51, they were last by some margin at 92.3 with 10th being the Knicks at 94.8, league average at 97.4 (Hawks leading at 103.9). Rebounding I don't see an indication for one way or the other, but the Royals would've been significantly below the rest of the league in ORB to TRB ratio to get up above average pace (ie not hitting the offensive glass at all, to a historic level relative to the league). On turnovers, teams with great ball-handlers rarely seem to turn it over more than the league average, and Davies at least has that rep. If accurate that would push the Royals even slower in pace (this could also suggest the Celtics pace is overestimated with Cousy generally acknowledged as a strong ballhandler).

2-4. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they'd slowed down from earlier by '51. The original BAA played at a significantly faster pace than the NBL by most accounts (and stats), so it's possible the Royals were on the high end in the NBL, and that flipped when they switched leagues. Aging/Risen's addition make logical sense as well.

*3 - meaningless to the point caveat on #3, but I would classify Davies as slightly their lead scorer overall in the pace era ('51-'54).
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#30 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Thu Jan 4, 2024 11:34 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Love the thread idea. I'm going to talk about some of the guys that I'd be most likely to consider "championing" based on my impression of where I stand compared to most.

Tiny & DJ - So, I feel like I'm higher on both these guys than most.

I mention Tiny because I think he was pretty legit. I mean, let the league in PPG & APG with the best ORtg in the league, and then played a supporting role on a champion? Why exactly would we put Iverson above him other than an assertion that Iverson's league was way stronger? If we're just talking about who was the more effective basketball player when they played, isn't Tiny the answer?


Like I said, the thing that gives me pause about Tiny is the absolute dearth of team success during his prime years, and the fact that there were so few prime years - even guys like Mullin and King had more prime/elite years.

As for him vs Iverson...do Archibald's two peak years look statistically better than any season in Iverson's career? Maybe. But Iverson's much-criticized efficiency is only -0.9 rTS for his career, so it's not terrible...league average range, and he did it for a lot longer, and he had a Finals run as the #1 guy, so...I can see the argument either way TBH.


I do understand the pause.

Re: AI rTS not terrible. Right but Tiny was up there with Kareem and way ahead of the other guard's of his time.


Fair. AI is really one of the most difficult players to evaluate. Tiny's got a case, but I think there are others - like the ones I've been championing - that have a better one.

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
Penny - I don't necessarily have a problem with him missing the Top 100 due to longevity, but I'll say I was pretty shocked to realize that Penny really seems like the best player on the Magic during Shaq's best years there based on the +/-. I was so used to Kobe looking far worse than Shaq I assumed all such guards would be so disappointing, but no, Penny was better than that.


I assume you're referring to the Pollack data(not sure where else +/- for those years exists)? Based on that what I see is

93-94 - Shaq +7.7 and Penny +5.2
94-95 - Shaq +12.0 and Penny +12.1
95-96 - Shaq +10.2 and Penny +17.1

So Shaq leads one year and is one tenth of a point behind Penny in another. Only in one year does Penny have a significant advantage.

That's to say I'm extremely skeptical of the notion that Penny was more important to those teams than Shaq. I find it nearly impossible to believe.


I'd note that the Magic only really became significant as a contender in '94-95, so you're really just talking about '94-95 & '95-96 as the core Magic contending years, and in those years Penny had a slight edge one year and a major edge the second. Perfectly fine not to be convinced that Penny was the more valuable player on that alone, but if the question is who had the better impact profile in contending years based on the data you present, it's indisputably Penny.

I think it's also worth noting that Penny was a rookie in '93-94. So yeah, Shaq was absolutely the MVP of the team that year on there way to getting swept out of the 1st round, and it was the emergence of Penny as a superstar-level player in his 2nd year that lifted the team to contention. (Shout out to the arrival of Horace Grant and to the recognition that Dennis Scott could shoot 3's as well, but those guys were tertiary to the Big 2.)


Just as a counterpoint, we also have Squared's RAPM for 95-96. Now, I know that's to be taken with a grain of salt because of sample size, but for the record, the sample for the 96 Magic is 29 games - over which they went 24-5 - so a little over a third of the season.

Shaq's RAPM over that sample is 3.76, while Penny's is 2.29. Then again, Horace tops them both at 4.80. So make of it what you will. Just thought I'd throw it out there.

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
Chet the Jet - very tempting guy given his place on the '67 76ers and his scoring volume & efficiency. I think a conversation involving him, Greer & Cunningham is warranted.


You might think it's a crude measure, but for their careers:

Walker - .168 WS/48 RS, .133 WS/48 PO
Greer - .124 WS/48 RS, .096 WS/48 PO
Cunningham - .141 WS/48 RS, .101 WS/48 PO

Walker not only topped both of them in WS/48 and TS Add on the 67 Sixers, but also on the 69 Sixers who were a top three team that season. And neither Greer nor Cunningham ever did what Walker did as the #1 on those Bulls teams.

I'm honestly asking, what's the case for Greer over Walker? Walker's got scoring over him pretty clearly when efficiency is considered(also probably a better rebounder on the whole), so was Greer an especially impactful playmaker or defender?


Oh, the box score really makes Walker look like the best of the 3, and I'm not really looking to push back against that on principle.

In terms of the case for Greer, well, what's objectively clear is that Greer had the higher primacy role and played a lot more. Given that Greer was the more respected player at the time in general, and that this is taking place in the context of arguably the biggest strategic coaching improvement of all-time relating to Wilt, I'm cautious about drawing a conclusion that implies "Hannum was wrong here."

But I do think it's possible that Walker could have been used extremely effectively in a considerably higher primacy role at higher minutes, and if we think that is indeed the case, well, then it becomes hard not to choose Walker over Greer.

The Cunningham comparison is a bit different because Cunningham peaked later. But similarly there's a situation where Cunningham got a higher primacy role, was trusted for playmaking, and allowed to do his thing with meh efficiency.


Understood on all points. What I'd say in response is the following.

Walker went to two conference Finals with the Bulls(and got within a game of the Finals one time) as, by most statistical measures, the best player on the team. You can't say that about Greer, and the one time Cunningham had any notable team success as a #1 was in his peak year in the ABA.

Cunningham also has a longevity issue in relation to both Greer and Walker.

I want to be clear though, I'm not really arguing against Greer and Cunningham. I don't have a big issue with them getting in. My issue is with the idea of them getting in and Chet not. I just don't think there is a big gap between them and I feel that Chet has long gotten short shrift among the 67 Sixers crew.

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
Divac - warrants serious discussion. I absolutely have him above Webber.


I have a tremendous amount of respect not just for Vlade, for that whole foursome from the Yugoslavian national team of that era that ended up coming to the NBA - I think they were really important, along with Detlef Schrempf(is he a guy we should be talking about?), in paving the way for other European guys like Dirk, Manu, Peja, all the way to Jokic and Doncic.

I think highly of Vlade, Toni Kukoc, Petrovic, and even poor Dino Radja who had the plain bad luck of landing on a terrible, dysfunctional post-Bird/McHale Celtics team while Vlade got Magic, Toni got MJ, and Petrovic got Drexler and then #1 pick Derrick Coleman.

Anyway, WRT Vlade, I feel like everyone associates him with the Kings, but I do hope people don't forget his early career with the Lakers, particularly how well he played in his two years with Magic - his advanced playoff numbers in 90 and 91 are good, though 90 looks like an outlier.

All that said, taking him over Webber is probably a controversial statement, but I can see the argument.


I definitely respect all those Euro pioneers, but that's not why I have Divac as a candidate here.

What about Schrempf? I don't think we ever have seriously considered him, but he's reasonable to bring up. Back in the day it was pretty clear that Payton & Kemp were considered the two main stars, and they were the two guys making the 100 here until Kemp fell off.


Yeah, I mean, I think it wouldn't be easy to make a real case for Schrempf being Top 100, but an interesting guy to talk about. It is worth mentioning - because you're talking about Payton and Kemp - that a number of his best statistical years came in Indiana before he got to Seattle.

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
The Hawk - exceptional peak, hurt badly by longevity. Were I making a list that wasn't NBA-focused, given all the competitive basketball he played before the ABA, he'd be quite high on my list. Like, Top 25-ish, feel that strongly about it, but people have argued against his longevity in the past very effectively and I can't really say they're wrong. Unlike someone like Bill Walton, he wasn't someone who was valuable in all his situations health-permitting.


I think if you think Walton is Top 100, then I can see thinking the same of Hawkins, but the question is how legit was his competition in the ABA and before? I don't know enough about him to have an informed answer.


I think both guys are debatable.

Re: how legit was competition ABA & before? Well, that's a complicated thing to answer, but let's start from his first year in the NBA and work backwards.

Consider that when Hawk arrives in Phoenix, they have existed for only one year and were god awful. The team sees a nearly 7 point SRS jump in Hawk's first year in the league including moving the ORtg from 11th to 3rd in the league. Hawk would get named All-NBA 1st team, and would have a TS Add among the league leaders. This happened despite the fact that there were struggles with coaching and the previously established alpha Gail Goodrich. Eventually Jerry Colangelo would fire the coach (Red Kerr), take his job, and specifically make clear that the offense would run through Hawkins.

I feel like this sets a baseline for understanding how good Hawk must have been based on what we could see most clearly in the NBA. He was without question a Top 10 player, and I'd argue for him as a Top 5 player.

With this in mind, regardless of the level of the ABA, what is pretty universally agreed upon is that he was at his best before his big injury the previous year in the ABA. As in, while he was still great in the NBA, he would never be the same player again after that injury, and the big thing here is that prime Hawk was an incredible physical outlier in terms agility/hops/etc. Was he more of an outlier than, say, Elgin Baylor? It's at least debatable, and that's what he lost before he got to the NBA. The Hawk who played in the NBA was not the Hawk that flew, and yet was still at the very least a Top 10 player.

On to the ABA details. Let's start by noting that it was pretty clear cut that Hawk was the best player the ABA saw until the Erving era in their estimation, and that included Rick Barry and Zelmo Beaty, so that once again puts a baseline on how low Hawk could be.

That said there's no real doubt that the early ABA was weak and I'm not sure if there's much else to say there. Had Hawk not impressed as much as he did upon his arrival in the NBA, I think there'd be more of a question of whether he could do his thing against NBA competition, but as is, I'd say his technique worked quite well.

What really made my eyes bug out when I started analyzing Hawk's ABA performance was the fact that he was actually playing something of a pass-first role from the center position, and yet still leading the league in scoring by virtue of his extreme efficiency. He led his team in APG but not FGA/g despite playing way more minutes than anyone else. This blew my mind because I was under the impression that Hawk was a link in the chain from Baylor to Erving, but neither of those guys showed the kind of tendency toward great playmaking and great shooting efficiency, so what was up?

This is where we get into the phenomenon I call "Big Hand Basketball" that was a part of Harlem Globetrotter culture. Big hands allow you to do all sorts of fake and trick passes that drove audiences around the world wild, and that's where Hawk learned the techniques, with Sweetwater Clifton as the specific mentor he credits, and with Meadowlark Lemon looming large in the background. Connie had a contentious relationship with Meadowlark and what he represented. Connie did not like using moves in Globetrotter games that wouldn't work in a real competitive game, and he felt Meadowlark represented a loss of actual competitive basketball ability.

Hawkins solution for this was to continue to play in the schoolyards of NYC whenever he had the opportunity, because that's where he cut his teeth as a player, and it was arguably the most competitive basketball played in the world at that time outside of the NBA due to it being the go-to place for NBA stars to play when they weren't playing Association basketball.

It has to be noted that playing in those schoolyards against NBA players was something Hawkins was doing in high school, and that from Hawkins' perspective, the reason why white players mostly couldn't compete, was that kids like him were basically playing ball in that competitive space constantly. When the school day ended, that's where you'd fine them into the night every night.

And in this time period where NYC was the absolutely epicenter of top prospect development, I would say that Hawk was the most celebrated young star the City produced until he got supplanted by Lew Alcindor who has held that title belt ever since.

Let's fast forward a bit to the brief run of the ABL, the first pro league to try to compete with the NBA, and also the first to have the 3. The ABL stole some impressive talent from the NBA, but I think the bigger thing to understand is that the NBA through most of the '60s was not expanding the size of their league to scale with the growing talent pool, and disproportionately the talent they were missing out on was Black. For the most part the NBA got the superstar talents, but they kept their role players mostly white for a time out of fear of alienating their fanbase. That meant that a league looking to take the basketball talent the NBA left had plenty of talent to pick from, and that talent was more likely to be Black than what you might guess looking at the NBA at the time.

Hawk of course would come right in as a rookie - just a year out of high school, having not been able to play college ball the prior year - and win the MVP, and from there his absence in the NBA made him not just an NYC legend, but something bigger.

Alright, I think that's enough rambling, and I'll cut myself off.


Well, it's enough to get me to set aside the questions about competition and just look at it as a longevity question in the context of NBA/ABA.

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
Dandridge - yeah, I think he's really, really solid. I'm almost ready to argue him against Unseld & Hayes...but not quite.


Nothing against Dandridge, and I'm sorry to keep coming back to him, but again, what is the case for Dandridge over Walker? They seem like similar-ish players to me, but Walker looks better, except that Dandridge got to play for two notable teams while Walker played for one and then had to go to a Bulls team that is, for most people, forgotten to history. I guess it's possible that Dandridge may have been an exceptional defender or something else that doesn't show up in the box.


I don't really have a problem with Walker over Dandridge, but Dandridge had a monstrous defensive reputation I wouldn't brush past lightly.


I don't know so much about Dandridge, but you and Enigma have said the same thing regarding his defense, so I will take it into consideration, and given that plus his box stuff plus his team success with the Bucks and Bullets, he's someone I'd have to consider.

But I will say again what I said before Chet - which is that Chet can claim some measure of success as a #1 option, while Dandridge was never really asked to be that.

I may be giving too much weight to what Chet and the Bulls did in 74 and 75 though.

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
Bill Sharman: There's a part of me that wants to rank Sharman ahead of teammate Cousy and many others. We see the shooting efficiency as an off-guard and we know how valuable that can be, and how overrated a ball dominant point guard can be in comparison when he chucks badly.

But all of that is narrative. When it comes to what's objective Cousy played the bigger role, played for longer, and the WOWY sides with him too. I'm left feeling that Sharman may have been able to be more valuable than Cousy if used in a particular way, but that as used, Cousy had the greater career.

Now, Sharman being below Cousy doesn't mean he absolutely should not be Top 100...but I am more impressed with Cliff Hagan, Bob Davies & Al Cervi than Cousy, and I'm not sure I'm going to try to champion Davies or Cousy in this project.


I would just say that Sharman often - not always, but often - had higher WS/48 than Cousy, both in RS and PO. And Cousy only played two more years than Sharman. Not that I think it's an either/or thing. I'd let them both in the Top 100.

I expected you to be in Sharman's corner, because the other day people were posting depth charts of the best players not yet inducted at each position, and I'm pretty sure you had Sharman on yours at SG.

Also...not sure what makes Davies or Cervi better than Cousy.


Yeah this is what I mean when I say that the narrative of Sharman being more valuable than Cousy makes sense to me, but I'm not seeing what I need to see to actually say I think it was so. Having a higher WS/48 is nice, but Cousy played the higher primacy role. Wouldn't matter to me if I saw Sharman having the clearly better WOWY with better longevity, but that's not what we see.

Re: Cousy vs Davies vs Cervi. So first off let me reiterate, I'm very leery of championing Davies or Cervi here. I expect Cousy will be on the list, and the other two won't be, and I'm really fine with that. I mean, Davies & Cervi had their peaks in the 1940s, and had their careers severely disrupted by the War.

But I do think it's worth understanding what I like about them in comparison to Cousy.

Cousy vs Davies is the most apples-to-apples comparison. Cousy really was "the next Davies". All of that floor generalship and flamboyance, those were the two guys in the NBA who did that. Cousy would have a tendency to call his own number more, and I think this along with him being "the next" let folks to think of him as an improved version of Davies in those early years.

But Cousy's efficiency really went to hell beyond a certain point (past age 28), while Davies was always efficient with his shooting his entire career (through age 35). To me this speaks to Davies having a better intuition for what the right play was than Cousy, including a more realistic sense of his own diminishing capacity.

Cousy does deserve it mentioned that the Celtics adopted a defensive style along with Russell that probably hurt ever Celtics' efficiency, but Cousy was considerably less efficient than teammates Ed Macauley and Bill Sharman even in the best of times, while calling his number quite a lot. I can forgive some of the poor efficiency for any of Red's guys, but I do think a point guard could have played in a way where Macauley & Sharman shot more and the point guard shot less, and if the point guard shot like Cousy, that probably would have been for the best.

Al Cervi is a bit of a different animal because there you're talking about a guy who at his best was a great scorer, a good playmaker, and a best-in-world defender. From what I can tell, the story of the first NBL season after WWII was Al Cervi of the Rochester Royals completely messing up the gameplan of the player who had been the dominant pro player of the 1940s prior to that point, Bobby McDermott of the Zollner Pistons. Cervi was just an absolute lock down defender who never let the best shooter in the world (McDermott) get the space he needed to get comfortable.

But Cervi was also the oldest of the bunch - making his pro debut in the 1930s, so we're talking about a guy who was already nearing 30 by the time he joined the Royals, and thus major longevity issues in terms of number of pro seasons.


Ok, I don't want to pit Cousy and Sharman against each other too much because, as I said before, I think they both should make it.

But just to your point about primacy, about Cousy being more important to those teams.

Just as an example, take Tony Parker. He was #71 last time. You can credibly argue that he was never one of the two most important players on any of the championship or Finals teams he was a part of, despite the Finals MVP. I mean, Duncan is Duncan, and you're the last guy I'd have to sell Manu to. And then Kawhi is there in 13 and 14. Heck, in 03 you can argue Robinson made more impact just on the defensive end. Yet he's #71. It's a precedent for the "third most important guy on a dynastic team" type getting in. Worthy is another example, though he probably was #2 from 87-91. Parish another.

Also take another member of the 60s Celtics - Sam Jones, who got in at #56 last time, which I think is decidedly too high. I do think Jones warrants inclusion in the list, but I don't think the gap between him and Sharman is huge, and you could probably argue that Havlicek was more important or at least equally important to those later Russell Celtics teams based on the stuff that doesn't show up in the box, i.e. defense.

Or, setting the primacy issue aside, what about a guy like Moncrief? I mean, I would agree that Moncrief's peak is probably higher than Sharman, but is the gap big enough to make up for the fact that Sharman has perhaps twice as many good/healthy seasons?

I just think you can make good arguments for Sharman over a number of other guys. He was, by the box, the best scorer on a team - a team that didn't have many consistently good scorers BTW - that went to the Finals five years in a row and won four titles. Most other guys you could say that about would merit serious consideration.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#31 » by OhayoKD » Fri Jan 5, 2024 11:45 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:I'd note that the Magic only really became significant as a contender in '94-95, so you're really just talking about '94-95 & '95-96 as the core Magic contending years, and in those years Penny had a slight edge one year and a major edge the second. Perfectly fine not to be convinced that Penny was the more valuable player on that alone, but if the question is who had the better impact profile in contending years based on the data you present, it's indisputably Penny.

I think it's also worth noting that Penny was a rookie in '93-94. So yeah, Shaq was absolutely the MVP of the team that year on there way to getting swept out of the 1st round, and it was the emergence of Penny as a superstar-level player in his 2nd year that lifted the team to contention. (Shout out to the arrival of Horace Grant and to the recognition that Dennis Scott could shoot 3's as well, but those guys were tertiary to the Big 2.)

Whether that impact data is more relevant to those years than the full-season sample without Shaq is at least worth debating I'd think.

I don't put too much stock in either considering what we got at other points in their careers, but it's not like there's no data case for shaq there. Shaq supposedly gets better from when he drops a signal magic has never matched in his career. Would be nice to have rotation sheets for those first years together.
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#32 » by OhayoKD » Thu Jan 25, 2024 1:36 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:.

Think this is relevant here(and really whenever russell's teammates come up):
For instance, when his teammates missed time, Boston rarely missed a beat. In 1958, Bob Cousy sat for seven games and the Celtics played far better without him. In ’59 and ’60, Sharman, Cousy and Tom Heinsohn missed a few games each, and the machine kept on ticking. In ’61, Sharman missed 18 games and the Celtics were (again) better without him. In ’62, Cousy missed five and, yes, the Celtics were better without him (portending his retirement years).

We can talk about their offensive skillset, approach, and boxscores but at the end of the day the Celtics won on defense and, even more importantly, they were winning just as well without them.

PS: This is a great thread idea and it might be worthwhile to pin
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Re: A Look At Borderline/Former Top 100 Players For The Top 100 Project 

Post#33 » by penbeast0 » Thu Jan 25, 2024 1:48 am

If either Cousy or Sharman get it, it shouldn't be for their Russell years, it should be for their 1950s years where they were the best backcourt in the league for 5+ years.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.

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