2024 - The Magic Plan

[Bergmaniac]

The plan should start with recognizing that if Paolo sprains an ankle, we will be putting up 85 ppg in a league that routinely sees 110 each.

No way, even hilariously bad and/or intentionally tanking teams put up over 100+ ppg in today's NBA. Detroit is currently at 110.4 ppg and they had a record losing run.

And we actually have a 115.4 ORTG in the minutes Paolo has been on the bench this year, which is the highest on the team. Obviously it will drop if we have to play without him for whole games and not just against bench units but I don't think we will be a historically bad offensive team without him.

Anyway, I think this trade deadline or in the summer it's time for a significant move, we have assets, it's time to make a deal while we still have cap flexibility.

[JoshuaPotter]

I am definitely ok with shopping our core assets of expiring and extra picks in favor of landing a nice veteran who can play 3&d within our system.

It really just boils down to we need people who can actually shoot the 3-ball. I haven't been as vocal about its importance this season because when I saw Suggs + Black role out, I saw the vision of "evaluation and player development" over the 3-ball and just winning (G. Harris and Fultz.)

If Fultz were playing any consistent amount of minutes, I would be extremely vocal about our 3pt disparity. But because Black + Suggs backcourt should get the lump of considering the future with the salt and seeing that beautiful defense. I am hanging back and watching.

If Suggs + Black become league average in 3-ball which is still possible to do this problem melts away and we just need to get Chet + Cole + Mo + Ingles healthy and playing pedestrian "D" off the bench at the same time.

[eyriq]

The ones I have:

1. Is Paolo a franchise player?
2. Is Franz a franchise player?
3. Is Franchero worth building around?
4. Are any of Suggs, Black, or Jett rising stars?
5. Is there a quality starter among Fultz, Goga, Harris, or WCJ?
6. Is there a quality role player among JI, Caleb, and Okeke?
7. Given Franchero, what are the best role players to surround them with?
8. Given Franchero, do we de-prioritize answers to other questions and aggressively pursue players that fit?

1. yes
2. yes
3. yes
4. no to all 4
5. maybe, maybe, no, maybe
6. maybe (health), no, no
7. shooting and low-TO defensive players
8. 100% yes - time to go all-in

Given this evaluation they should have no qualms at all about buying at the deadline.

[The-Stallion70]

The ones I have:

1. Is Paolo a franchise player?
2. Is Franz a franchise player?
3. Is Franchero worth building around?
4. Are any of Suggs, Black, or Jett rising stars?
5. Is there a quality starter among Fultz, Goga, Harris, or WCJ?
6. Is there a quality role player among JI, Caleb, and Okeke?
7. Given Franchero, what are the best role players to surround them with?
8. Given Franchero, do we de-prioritize answers to other questions and aggressively pursue players that fit?

1. yes
2. yes
3. yes
4. no to all 4
5. maybe, maybe, no, maybe
6. maybe (health), no, no
7. shooting and low-TO defensive players
8. 100% yes - time to go all-in

Agree with almost everything you said except regarding Houstan. I do believe he is a rotation-role player in the NBA when he shoots at an almost 59% ts%.

[JoshuaPotter]

The ones I have:

1. Is Paolo a franchise player?
2. Is Franz a franchise player?
3. Is Franchero worth building around?
4. Are any of Suggs, Black, or Jett rising stars?
5. Is there a quality starter among Fultz, Goga, Harris, or WCJ?
6. Is there a quality role player among JI, Caleb, and Okeke?
7. Given Franchero, what are the best role players to surround them with?
8. Given Franchero, do we de-prioritize answers to other questions and aggressively pursue players that fit?

1. yes
2. yes
3. yes
4. no to all 4
5. maybe, maybe, no, maybe
6. maybe (health), no, no
7. shooting and low-TO defensive players
8. 100% yes - time to go all-in

Given this evaluation they should have no qualms at all about buying at the deadline.

I have no qualms about buy in so long as the fit is there.

To me, the obvious pieces that are not worth retaining long term are Caleb, and Okeke right now. I do not see any other team offering them a contract.

Contrast this to WCJ + Goga and I think if they were free agents tomorrow they would be signed by the end of the week.

[Knightro]

The one question I keep asking myself...

Who is the starting point guard/lead guard for this team next season?

-Fultz is an unrestricted free agent and isn't a very good fit with Banchero and Wagner.
-Cole is not a starting NBA point guard and seems unlikely to become one.
-Suggs is not a starting NBA point guard and seems unlikely to become one.

Black has a lot of very good qualities and I definitely could see a scenario where he develops in to a really valuable year 3-5 Lonzo Ball type of player, but you're lying to yourself if you sit there and pretend he's shown *anything* off the dribble so far this season that would you to believe he's ready to step in and be an on-ball lead guard.

So what's the solution? How are they going to figure out the guard play on this team long-term?

[p0peye]

The one question I keep asking myself...

Who is the starting point guard/lead guard for this team next season?

-Fultz is an unrestricted free agent and isn't a very good fit with Banchero and Wagner.
-Cole is not a starting NBA point guard and seems unlikely to become one.
-Suggs is not a starting NBA point guard and seems unlikely to become one.

Black has a lot of very good qualities and I definitely could see a scenario where he develops in to a really valuable year 3-5 Lonzo Ball type of player, but you're lying to yourself if you sit there and pretend he's shown *anything* off the dribble so far this season that would you to believe he's ready to step in and be an on-ball lead guard.

So what's the solution? How are they going to figure out the guard play on this team long-term?

I think it is either a) someone not on the roster yet, or b) Suggs posing as PG with new sharpshooting and playmaking SG, or c) we continue evaluating yet again.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

The one question I keep asking myself...

Who is the starting point guard/lead guard for this team next season?

-Fultz is an unrestricted free agent and isn't a very good fit with Banchero and Wagner.
-Cole is not a starting NBA point guard and seems unlikely to become one.
-Suggs is not a starting NBA point guard and seems unlikely to become one.

Black has a lot of very good qualities and I definitely could see a scenario where he develops in to a really valuable year 3-5 Lonzo Ball type of player, but you're lying to yourself if you sit there and pretend he's shown *anything* off the dribble so far this season that would you to believe he's ready to step in and be an on-ball lead guard.

So what's the solution? How are they going to figure out the guard play on this team long-term?

This is the BIGGEST question and the ANSWER to this will determine where this magic team goes. They can't continue to ignore what is right in front of them and all signs point to it being someone not on the roster.

FA PG's are very limited so hopefully they trade for one come deadline

[The-Stallion70]

If we can't find a true pg then we could run two sgs just to have two guys who can shoot and then Paolo and Franz handle it alot.

[Knightro]

If we can't find a true pg then we could run two sgs just to have two guys who can shoot and then Paolo and Franz handle it alot.

That's pretty much what they're doing now and it isn't really working that well.

[Skybox]

If we can't find a true pg then we could run two sgs just to have two guys who can shoot and then Paolo and Franz handle it alot.

We don't have any true shooting guards who can shoot either. Harris hasn't been good, but he''s the closest thing...He's always (in ORL at least) been a really picky shooter. We need someone who hunts shots (like Suggs, but with current, not future, ability to shoot).

If FO doesn't have the balls to go for a real shooter/scorer like Simons, or even Brogdon...could they AT LEAST find a "castoff for a srp" with an expiring salary guy like McBuckets just as an experiment for 15mpg, next to Black? IF we see some hope, we could invest on a larger longer-term scale....after all this is an "Evaluation Year" (again).

Personally, I'd go hard at Simons...If not, fall back to Brogdon-level (he's a much more dynamic scorer & defender than Tyus), or drop down to Tyus (who is a fantastic game manager with a good percentage from 3 on relatively low volume-maybe he'd be excited to see more open shots and take them?). If they can't or won't do that...drop another level and there's always the specialists like Kennard, McBuckets, or Hield...who are all expiring and Hield, at least, will expect some $$$.

Tyus/Kispert might be a nice re-balance, but it wouldn't be as cheap as people think. I don't think WAS is looking at moving Kispert and every playoff team in the league might be bidding for Tyus to retain his title of "Best backup PG in the league" for them. A starting opportunity with us might sway him in UFA, but WAS will want highest bid this season. IF we could pull them AND Gafford for WCJ, Fultz and 2 FRPs...I'd be ecstatic...Simons is my ideal target, but that'd be a really nice move overall.

[JoshuaPotter]

If we can't find a true pg then we could run two sgs just to have two guys who can shoot and then Paolo and Franz handle it alot.

We don't have any true shooting guards who can shoot either. Harris hasn't been good, but he''s the closest thing...He's always (in ORL at least) been a really picky shooter. We need someone who hunts shots (like Suggs, but with current, not future, ability to shoot).

If FO doesn't have the balls to go for a real shooter/scorer like Simons, or even Brogdon...could they AT LEAST find a "castoff for a srp" with an expiring salary guy like McBuckets just as an experiment for 15mpg, next to Black? IF we see some hope, we could invest on a larger longer-term scale....after all this is an "Evaluation Year" (again).

Personally, I'd go hard at Simons...If not, fall back to Brogdon-level (he's a much more dynamic scorer & defender than Tyus), or drop down to Tyus (who is a fantastic game manager with a good percentage from 3 on relatively low volume-maybe he'd be excited to see more open shots and take them?). If they can't or won't do that...drop another level and there's always the specialists like Kennard, McBuckets, or Hield...who are all expiring and Hield, at least, will expect some $$$.

Tyus/Kispert might be a nice re-balance, but it wouldn't be as cheap as people think. I don't think WAS is looking at moving Kispert and every playoff team in the league might be bidding for Tyus to retain his title of "Best backup PG in the league" for them. A starting opportunity with us might sway him in UFA, but WAS will want highest bid this season. IF we could pull them AND Gafford for WCJ, Fultz and 2 FRPs...I'd be ecstatic...Simons is my ideal target, but that'd be a really nice move overall.

Yeah but...check notes....

Did any of these players play for Michigan?

[JF5]

There are reports Magic might offer a trade for Detroit's Cade Cunningham. But nay, I am not a big fan of Cade. What kind of game does he have? Does it complement what Magic is trying to do, especially 3pt shooting?

Detroit is not trading Cade.

His team is 3-30... it's not like Cade is some untouchable star player. Granted they've built poorly around him. He's essentially a good 3rd option with alllstar potential. Given how many guards they have with similar potential. It's easier to cut him loose.

It's very possible the Pistons would not commit a crap ton of money to him given how bad the team is now.

[The-Stallion70]

If we can't find a true pg then we could run two sgs just to have two guys who can shoot and then Paolo and Franz handle it alot.

That's pretty much what they're doing now and it isn't really working that well.

True but I mean we go find a legitimate good sg like Kennard or someone like that, someone who's a real sharpshooter

[The-Stallion70]

If we can't find a true pg then we could run two sgs just to have two guys who can shoot and then Paolo and Franz handle it alot.

We don't have any true shooting guards who can shoot either. Harris hasn't been good, but he''s the closest thing...He's always (in ORL at least) been a really picky shooter. We need someone who hunts shots (like Suggs, but with current, not future, ability to shoot).

If FO doesn't have the balls to go for a real shooter/scorer like Simons, or even Brogdon...could they AT LEAST find a "castoff for a srp" with an expiring salary guy like McBuckets just as an experiment for 15mpg, next to Black? IF we see some hope, we could invest on a larger longer-term scale....after all this is an "Evaluation Year" (again).

Personally, I'd go hard at Simons...If not, fall back to Brogdon-level (he's a much more dynamic scorer & defender than Tyus), or drop down to Tyus (who is a fantastic game manager with a good percentage from 3 on relatively low volume-maybe he'd be excited to see more open shots and take them?). If they can't or won't do that...drop another level and there's always the specialists like Kennard, McBuckets, or Hield...who are all expiring and Hield, at least, will expect some $$$.

Tyus/Kispert might be a nice re-balance, but it wouldn't be as cheap as people think. I don't think WAS is looking at moving Kispert and every playoff team in the league might be bidding for Tyus to retain his title of "Best backup PG in the league" for them. A starting opportunity with us might sway him in UFA, but WAS will want highest bid this season. IF we could pull them AND Gafford for WCJ, Fultz and 2 FRPs...I'd be ecstatic...Simons is my ideal target, but that'd be a really nice move overall.

Simons is averaging 27 and 5 on nearly 60% true shooting percentage.

Newsflash, his value is closer to one of Paolo or Franz straight up than another package we can put together.

I agree Tyus is closer to a guy we should be going for.

[VFX]

If we can't find a true pg then we could run two sgs just to have two guys who can shoot and then Paolo and Franz handle it alot.

We don't have any true shooting guards who can shoot either. Harris hasn't been good, but he''s the closest thing...He's always (in ORL at least) been a really picky shooter. We need someone who hunts shots (like Suggs, but with current, not future, ability to shoot).

If FO doesn't have the balls to go for a real shooter/scorer like Simons, or even Brogdon...could they AT LEAST find a "castoff for a srp" with an expiring salary guy like McBuckets just as an experiment for 15mpg, next to Black? IF we see some hope, we could invest on a larger longer-term scale....after all this is an "Evaluation Year" (again).

Personally, I'd go hard at Simons...If not, fall back to Brogdon-level (he's a much more dynamic scorer & defender than Tyus), or drop down to Tyus (who is a fantastic game manager with a good percentage from 3 on relatively low volume-maybe he'd be excited to see more open shots and take them?). If they can't or won't do that...drop another level and there's always the specialists like Kennard, McBuckets, or Hield...who are all expiring and Hield, at least, will expect some $$$.

Tyus/Kispert might be a nice re-balance, but it wouldn't be as cheap as people think. I don't think WAS is looking at moving Kispert and every playoff team in the league might be bidding for Tyus to retain his title of "Best backup PG in the league" for them. A starting opportunity with us might sway him in UFA, but WAS will want highest bid this season. IF we could pull them AND Gafford for WCJ, Fultz and 2 FRPs...I'd be ecstatic...Simons is my ideal target, but that'd be a really nice move overall.

I think there is too much emphasis put on a guy that is a pure shooter at the SG spot. Yes, it opens the floor up. Gary Harris is and was who that player is supposed to be. Even when he’s not playing like absolute garbage, it only does so much in terms of playmaking as an outlet. That goes for just about any 3 & D shooter. If a good defender is on their hip it’s not changing as much as you think.

The alternative are maybe like 5-7 guys in the league that generate offense in other ways at that position and they are nowhere near available.. guys like Doncic, Harden, and Booker etc. Jett Howard might not be ready, but this is why they’ve spent a lottery pick on a large versatile shooter.

The bigger issue here is at point guard. Why? Because Franz and Paolo are not point forwards despite their best efforts. The amount of turnovers with them taking on this responsibility has been astonishing. There has to be a reason Mosely isn’t playing Black real minutes despite starting. That’s likely due to the fact that he’s limited offensively and duplicative with Suggs in most metrics. I still believe Mosely doesn’t draw up pick and roll plays whatsoever and therefore Black is just a glorified perimeter defender.

Not sure Orlando can land Tyus Jones, but that’s the kind of player that would help right now more than just another outlet shooter that can’t set these guys up. The offense just doesn’t move correctly in the starting unit to close out games. Everyone stands around and watches Paolo attempt to draw fouls when Franz isn’t driving into a wall of bodies. This is also glaringly apparent in the second unit without Ingles facilitating. Cole is not a facilitator. He’s a shot creator for himself and both Moe and Cole have looked worse with Joe out.

[Knightro]

I think there is too much emphasis put on a guy that is a pure shooter at the SG spot. Yes, it opens the floor up. Gary Harris is and was who that player is supposed to be. Even when he’s not playing like absolute garbage, it only does so much in terms of playmaking as an outlet. That goes for just about any 3 & D shooter. If a good defender is on their hip it’s not changing as much as you think.

The alternative are maybe like 5-7 guys in the league that generate offense in other ways at that position and they are nowhere near available.. guys like Doncic, Harden, and Booker etc. Jett Howard might not be ready, but this is why they’ve spent a lottery pick on a large versatile shooter.

The bigger issue here is at point guard. Why? Because Franz and Paolo are not point forwards despite their best efforts. The amount of turnovers with them taking on this responsibility has been astonishing. There has to be a reason Mosely isn’t playing Black real minutes despite starting. That’s likely due to the fact that he’s limited offensively and duplicative with Suggs in most metrics.

Not sure Orlando can land Tyus Jones, but that’s the kind of player that would help right now more than just another outlet shooter that can’t set these guys up. The offense just doesn’t move correctly in the starting unit to close out games. Everyone stands around and watches Paolo attempt to draw fouls when Franz isn’t driving into a wall of bodies. This is also glaringly apparent in the second unit without Ingles facilitating. Cole is not a facilitator. He’s a shot creator for himself and both Moe and Cole have looked worse with Joe out.

As Skybox said, the Magic don't just need good shooters. They need good shooters who are also shot hunters.

Gary Harris is a good shooter, but he's not a shot hunter.

Jalen Suggs is a shot hunter, but he's not a good shooter.

Anthony Black is certainly not a shot hunter. Cole Anthony isn't really shot hunter from 3PT (he is from everywhere else though).

Caleb Houstan is probably the closest thing they have to a shot hunter who also projects to be a good shooter, but he's also 20 years old still and really weak defensively.

[VFX]

I think there is too much emphasis put on a guy that is a pure shooter at the SG spot. Yes, it opens the floor up. Gary Harris is and was who that player is supposed to be. Even when he’s not playing like absolute garbage, it only does so much in terms of playmaking as an outlet. That goes for just about any 3 & D shooter. If a good defender is on their hip it’s not changing as much as you think.

The alternative are maybe like 5-7 guys in the league that generate offense in other ways at that position and they are nowhere near available.. guys like Doncic, Harden, and Booker etc. Jett Howard might not be ready, but this is why they’ve spent a lottery pick on a large versatile shooter.

The bigger issue here is at point guard. Why? Because Franz and Paolo are not point forwards despite their best efforts. The amount of turnovers with them taking on this responsibility has been astonishing. There has to be a reason Mosely isn’t playing Black real minutes despite starting. That’s likely due to the fact that he’s limited offensively and duplicative with Suggs in most metrics.

Not sure Orlando can land Tyus Jones, but that’s the kind of player that would help right now more than just another outlet shooter that can’t set these guys up. The offense just doesn’t move correctly in the starting unit to close out games. Everyone stands around and watches Paolo attempt to draw fouls when Franz isn’t driving into a wall of bodies. This is also glaringly apparent in the second unit without Ingles facilitating. Cole is not a facilitator. He’s a shot creator for himself and both Moe and Cole have looked worse with Joe out.

As Skybox said, the Magic don't just need good shooters. They need good shooters who are also shot hunters.

Gary Harris is a good shooter, but he's not a shot hunter.

Jalen Suggs is a shot hunter, but he's not a good shooter.

Caleb Houstan is probably the closest thing they have to a shot hunter who also projects to be a good shooter, but he's also 20 years old still and really weak defensively.

Yes, and I don’t believe those players are available. Not only that, but the successful ones benefit from a well run offense.

Plugging OG Anunoby into this offense without a real facilitator gives you one more option and the offense is still stagnant standing around watching Paolo crash into bodies under the rim.

Guys like McCollum and Simons are not readily available if you are looking for a mid to upper tier playmaking shooter option. Orlando doesn’t have the assets. They might for a facilitator that can shoot like Jones.

[JoshuaPotter]

I think there is too much emphasis put on a guy that is a pure shooter at the SG spot. Yes, it opens the floor up. Gary Harris is and was who that player is supposed to be. Even when he’s not playing like absolute garbage, it only does so much in terms of playmaking as an outlet. That goes for just about any 3 & D shooter. If a good defender is on their hip it’s not changing as much as you think.

The alternative are maybe like 5-7 guys in the league that generate offense in other ways at that position and they are nowhere near available.. guys like Doncic, Harden, and Booker etc. Jett Howard might not be ready, but this is why they’ve spent a lottery pick on a large versatile shooter.

The bigger issue here is at point guard. Why? Because Franz and Paolo are not point forwards despite their best efforts. The amount of turnovers with them taking on this responsibility has been astonishing. There has to be a reason Mosely isn’t playing Black real minutes despite starting. That’s likely due to the fact that he’s limited offensively and duplicative with Suggs in most metrics.

Not sure Orlando can land Tyus Jones, but that’s the kind of player that would help right now more than just another outlet shooter that can’t set these guys up. The offense just doesn’t move correctly in the starting unit to close out games. Everyone stands around and watches Paolo attempt to draw fouls when Franz isn’t driving into a wall of bodies. This is also glaringly apparent in the second unit without Ingles facilitating. Cole is not a facilitator. He’s a shot creator for himself and both Moe and Cole have looked worse with Joe out.

As Skybox said, the Magic don't just need good shooters. They need good shooters who are also shot hunters.

Gary Harris is a good shooter, but he's not a shot hunter.

Jalen Suggs is a shot hunter, but he's not a good shooter.

Caleb Houstan is probably the closest thing they have to a shot hunter who also projects to be a good shooter, but he's also 20 years old still and really weak defensively.

Yes, and I don’t believe those players are available. Not only that, but the successful ones benefit from a well run offense.

Plugging OG Anunoby into this offense without a real facilitator gives you one more option and the offense is still stagnant standing around watching Paolo crash into bodies under the rim.

Guys like McCollum and Simons are not readily available if you are looking for a mid to upper tier playmaking shooter option. Orlando doesn’t have the assets. They might for a facilitator that can shoot like Jones.

At this point we are better off hiring a competent medical staff to recoup Ingles.

[Skybox]

I'm sorry if you've already read this from me 100x, but I think POR might consider trading Simons because...
-His insane offensive stats are empty calories, coming from playing on a bad team losing games
-Noone in POR should want to recreate "Dame & CJ", with the newer "Dame" not being a good shooter (Scoot is the future)
-Sharpe should be the starting SG of the future. Moving him to SF negates a lot of his freakish physical advantages vs guards
-They're paying Simons $25m per and he'll be ready for a stat-enhanced raise in 2 years..by then, Scoot has taken him out of the SL.
-Simons on POR scores 25+ and loses games...Simons, with Paolo & Franz, scores 25 3xmonthly (when teams dare him), but averages 18ppg and 5 assists (without even trying). IMO, 3rd chair, but way ahead of #4 (Cole?) is his perfect spot, especially with offensive priorities 1 & 2 being big, mobile frontcourt players who do their best work at the rim. All 3 should rack up more assists...but Paolo, at least, goes right to the All-Star Game, because his kick-outs become assists and his drives to the rim aren't 1 on 3 every time.

...Simons won't come cheap but, just like many here view WCJ - really good guy, really good player, not the best fit.