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2023 Season

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CrimsonCrew
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#421 » by CrimsonCrew » Thu Jan 4, 2024 6:14 pm

thesack12 wrote:
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So there are 21, 49ers that are in the pro bowl equation. That's an astounding 39%

Also worth noting that there are only 22 starters for a team, well plus the 3 specialists so 25.

The roster is incredible. Hopefully that leads to no 49ers playing in the probowl as they prepare to bring home the Lombardi the following week.


There are 22 starters technically, but more guys on every team who are effectively starters. The nickel corner and the (usually) SLB basically split one position on defense. DTs often only play 60% of snaps or so. Some teams start three WRs, others start two TEs. It's pretty silly to have a FB make the roster at this point as only a handful of teams even use them at all. Still, having 21 guys recognized is pretty incredible. And you could argue that guys like Aiyuk, Greenlaw, and Wishnowsky were snubs.

WR is crowded, and Aiyuk's total numbers and especially TDs lag behind the others, but given his targets, he's had an incredible year. I addressed Greenlaw getting bumped by edge players above. And Wishnowsky's pure numbers aren't as good as Anger's, but he's put 25/49 punts inside the 20 (an amazing 51%) vs 17/44 for Anger (39%), strongly suggesting he wasn't in position for the big, booming kicks that can really bump average and net as often. Not to mention only two touchbacks despite putting over half his punts in the opponent's red zone.
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#422 » by CrimsonCrew » Thu Jan 4, 2024 6:27 pm

thesack12 wrote:
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Dang, besides Logan Ryan are the 9ers going to have any natural safeties available for this Sunday?

So glad, everything got locked up last week

On the + side its looking like Jennings and Ray Ray will return this week. Getting those guys some live action to help them get back into form before it counts will be good.


Rough for this week, but a good time to get these injuries dealt with and cleared up. I would expect Tayler Hawkins will be elevated from the PS for the week. Should be a good chance for him to show that he deserves more of a role. We need more of a true FS type, and possibly Hawkins could be that guy. And if not, we need to know that before the offseason. Seems likely Gipson does not return next season.
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#423 » by CrimsonCrew » Thu Jan 4, 2024 6:29 pm

thesack12 wrote:
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Dude was a rock solid pickup, that was pretty unheralded and basically unnoticed at the time.


Yeah, I absolutely want him starting at one of our OG positions through the playoffs. He's been playing better than either Banks or Burford (especially Burford, who is still really struggling at times in pass pro).
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#424 » by CrimsonCrew » Fri Jan 5, 2024 5:36 pm

Ravens signed Dalvin Cook. That's too bad. Not sure how much he really adds at this point, but with Mitchell's injury, they aren't particularly strong at RB with a couple JAGs. Cook could be an upgrade.

Speaking of somewhat high-profile cuts, Zach Ertz never signed anywhere, did he? Weird.
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#425 » by arich35 » Fri Jan 5, 2024 9:50 pm

Can't make this **** up. Verrett hurt his shoulder in practice and needs rotator cuff surgery. Never seen a player so cursed in my life
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#426 » by CrimsonCrew » Fri Jan 5, 2024 10:00 pm

Unbelievable. Better hope Luter can play....
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#427 » by RIPskaterdude » Sat Jan 6, 2024 6:30 pm

Jason just needs to retire and get a coaching job. It's just not meant to be
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#428 » by thesack12 » Sun Jan 7, 2024 3:27 pm

Wow, absolutely heartbreaking for Verrett. Dude is just straight up snakebitten. His body just refuses to stop failing him. I read that this is the 8th time he will undergo season ending surgery.... EIGHTH. He's been in the league for 10 seasons, so for 80% of his career he's suffered a serious, season ending injury.

Apparently he continued to practice after getting hurt, and initially refused an MRI. He likely knew the MRI results weren't going to be good and tried to battle through it. So sad, feel extremely bad for the guy.

Dude is a warrior and fought to come back and live his dream so many times. His story is both sad and incredibly inspiring at the same time.

I hope he sticks around the team at some capacity next season. He has a lot to offer.
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#429 » by thesack12 » Sun Jan 7, 2024 3:43 pm

CrimsonCrew wrote:
thesack12 wrote:
CrimsonCrew wrote:
My understanding is that that bonus counts against the cap already because it's considered a likely-to-be-earned bonus based on Darnold's last season. So it would come off the cap. We have a lot of cap to roll over, but we also have a lot of dead money stacking up in the years ahead thanks to several restructures.

Obviously if Purdy gets hurt it's a disaster, but taking three weeks off seems somewhat excessive. If it was my call, I'd give him some plays to stay sharp. Though not having Trent would be a consideration.


https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/sam-darnold-25098/

Again, I don't know if that is the accurate language or the correct figures but its the only place I've seen a breakdown of the specifics of Darnold's incentives.

It shows only $1.2 mil in total counts against the cap due to being likely to be earned. With only $300k per regular season win where he plays 25% of the snaps, I really don't see an issue here. If anything his cap hit is going to be lowered because he's going to trigger less than the $1.2 mil in total incentives.

I get we always need to be mindful of the cap, but in this particular situation I don't think the juice is worth the squeeze. As I mentioned in the previous post if it becomes absolutely critical to create that small of a number of cap space it would be quite easy to do so.


Yeah, I can't find the term that I thought was in there, so I could very well be wrong. If it's $300K for 25% of snaps and a win, it's not really worth the risk. I thought we were looking at more like $1.5 million, and that starts making a difference.

Assuming that lower figure, ultimately I think you make the best decision for your team on this one. I'm still not entirely sold on that being sitting Purdy, but it would be a nightmare if he got hurt in a meaningless game, so I can understand it. And we've seen this OL really struggle without Trent. Not to mention it's a pretty beaten-up unit in general.


Yeah the rest vs rust debate is always a compelling one. In my opinion, it should be evaluated on an individual by individual basis. All these guys are currently at varying levels of health, shape, development, importance to the team, situational status of their overall position group, need for live reps, etc.

For example Trent Williams will play today, who is of course a Critically important piece of the team who also plays a premium position and there is basically no viable depth behind him. Still, he himself said that he prefers to play and his body actually feels worse when he has extended time off. He said he felt terrible coming back from couple game injury layoff earlier in the season.

As for Purdy specifically, I can see some value in giving him a couple of drives to get the live reps. Afterall, he is still a very young player. Still, IMO the injury risk is just far too much. If Purdy goes down with a serious injury, the season would basically be over. Also, I don't know how much Purdy would actually gain facing what is looking to be a watered down Rams defense that will probably be running a lot of vanilla schemes.

If something doesn't go as planned in the rest vs rust equation, the coaching staff is going to get criticized either way. If a guy gets hurt, coach will get ragged on for not sitting that guy. If a guy comes out of the gate flat in the divisional round, coach will get ragged on for not playing a guy to keep him sharp.

For me, I'll risk the rust over potentially injury every time. In a rust type situation, the possibility exists to weather the storm early and hope guys find their groove as the game progresses. Where as if a guy gets hurt, there is no hope of having him round into form because he won't even be in uniform. In other words, rust is a short term thing that can be worked through, whereas injuries are completely non-workable.
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#430 » by thesack12 » Sun Jan 7, 2024 8:30 pm

Read on Twitter


Apparently spotrac has the correct details of Darnold's contractual language.

Considering what he's looking to have on the field with, it might be tough for Sam to attain that incentive.
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#431 » by arich35 » Mon Jan 8, 2024 3:03 am

I am torn between wanting the Packers or Bucs
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#432 » by Jikkle » Mon Jan 8, 2024 10:01 am

arich35 wrote:I am torn between wanting the Packers or Bucs


The way I see it is if we can't beat either of those teams we have no business advancing anyways.

There really is no reason for this team to not be in the Super Bowl. Yes any given Sunday so it doesn't mean we will make the Super Bowl but this team is clearly the best team in the NFC at least and anything short of making a Super Bowl is a failure for this team.
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#433 » by CrimsonCrew » Mon Jan 8, 2024 5:27 pm

Jikkle wrote:
arich35 wrote:I am torn between wanting the Packers or Bucs


The way I see it is if we can't beat either of those teams we have no business advancing anyways.

There really is no reason for this team to not be in the Super Bowl. Yes any given Sunday so it doesn't mean we will make the Super Bowl but this team is clearly the best team in the NFC at least and anything short of making a Super Bowl is a failure for this team.


Agreed. No team can combine offensive and defensive prowess the way the Niners can. The Cowboys are the probably most dangerous in terms of comparable talent - now that the Eagles are basically in free fall - and of course they could beat the Niners, but it's hard to see them doing so given the recent history.

Detroit worries me a bit as they have a great run D, explosive offense, and good run game, but it's hard to see them actually doing it with that back-end on D and Goff playing outdoors on the road. Goff's indoor/outdoor numbers are pretty stark, especially the TDs. He's thrown 23 in 377 attempts indoors (6%) compared to 7 in 228 attempts outdoors (3%). Rating of 104.0 vs. 87.9. And it's worse when you look at grass vs. turf. 105.5 rating vs. 82, with 2.5% TD rate on grass. His YPA drops by 1.6, and he's taken the same number of sacks (15) on each surface despite 205 more attempts on turf.

The Rams may be able to beat us if they play really well and we play poorly. They have the run game and receivers to give our D problems. But their defense isn't very good.

Really hard to get too scared of TB right now, or the Packers. But as said, any given Sunday. And I don't have a ton of faith in several elements of this team (Shanahan, Moody, even Purdy) in a close game.

Can't sleep on anyone, and we need to come out swinging.
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#434 » by CrimsonCrew » Mon Jan 8, 2024 5:49 pm

A little good news for us. Because the NFC teams play after the AFC teams, our most likely opponents (the two most likely WC teams to win in the Rams and Eagles, and the Bucs if all the division winners win) will be playing either Sunday or Monday night. Just a little more of a timing/rest edge, though I would expect we'll play on Sunday instead of Saturday of the following week in that case.
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#435 » by 49er4life1979 » Tue Jan 9, 2024 2:42 am

Jikkle wrote:
arich35 wrote:I am torn between wanting the Packers or Bucs


I just don't want to see Rams. Hopefully Lions take care of them and we get Bucs. That would be ideal. Then in the NFC Title game we get Lions. Jared Goff's record isn't great at all outdoors and especially on grass.
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#436 » by Samurai » Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:22 am

thesack12 wrote:
Read on Twitter


Apparently spotrac has the correct details of Darnold's contractual language.

Considering what he's looking to have on the field with, it might be tough for Sam to attain that incentive.

He still has a net worth of around $30M; pretty sure he's not relying on grocery discount coupons despite the loss to the Rams. :wink:
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#437 » by arich35 » Wed Jan 10, 2024 12:31 am

Ferrell will miss at least the first postseason game.
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#438 » by CrimsonCrew » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:00 am

arich35 wrote:Ferrell will miss at least the first postseason game.


Could be worse. We have tolerable depth at the position, and Ferrell is basically just a guy. Still, never want to see a starter out, especially when we could be facing a good running team in the Rams or Eagles. At least there's no way we can run into the Lions in our first game.
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#439 » by CrimsonCrew » Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:05 am

In positive injury news, Armstead, Gipson, Brown, and Jennings should all be back. CMC, too, of course (pretty sure he would have played this past week if it was an important game). George Odum may also come back. He's not a great safety, and would hopefully be 4th on the depth chart at this point, but he could contribute on STs. Looks like Hawkins may be done as he need surgery on his wrist.

Pretty solid to only be missing two regular starters (Hufanga and Ferrell), both with arguably comparable guys stepping in for them, going into the playoffs. Not many teams are in such good shape on the injury front.
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Re: 2023 Season 

Post#440 » by CharityStripe34 » Wed Jan 10, 2024 3:07 pm

Is there a tangible explanation as to why this team under Shanahan struggles in tight games or playing from behind? Legit question because with the talent at their disposal that shouldn't be such a weird black mark against his teams.
"Wes, Hill, Ibaka, Allen, Nwora, Brook, Pat, Ingles, Khris are all slow-mo, injury prone ... a sandcastle waiting for playoff wave to get wrecked. A castle with no long-range archers... is destined to fall. That is all I have to say."-- FOTIS

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