jvsimonetti0514 wrote:Interesting. So if the inside the arc shot was worth 3, with the much higher percentage most players shoot from there would make it more valuable than an outside the arc shot that’s 4? Has someone done an article about this or did you figure this out on your own? I’d like to read more about it. things would have really have to get out of hand for the nba to change up the scoring like that.
I read it somewhere several years ago
But the gist of it is, imagine 2 people take 100 shots, one from exclusively inside the arc, the other from exclusively outside the arc
If it's 2s and 3s, then 34 3s gets you to 102 points, where 50 2s gets you to 100 points. Meaning in NBA terms, a guy who shoots 34% from 3 is slightly better than shooting 50% from 2, and all sorts of guys are able to shoot 34% from 3. You bump that number up to 40%, that gets you 40 out of 100 shots, or 120 points, the equivalent of 60 out of 100 shots, or 60% from 2. A 40% 3pt shooter is worth the same as a 60% 2pt shooter
For reference, among guys who qualify for rate stats this year, there are 49 players shooting 40% or better from 3. Only 19 who shoot 60% or better from 2, because it's easier to find a guy who can shoot 40% from 3 than it is to find a guy who can shoot 60% from 2. Shaq, arguably the most dominant paint scorer ever, only averaged 60% or more from 2 four times, all of which came after he turned 32 and started to take fewer shots
Now we apply that to 3s and 4s, say you have a 40% 4pt shooter, how valuable is that? Well, he'd score 40 out of 100 shots, so that's 160 points, divided by 3 you get 53.3%. So now a 40% shooter behind the arc is as valuable as a 53.3% shooter inside the arc. Going back to this year, remember there are 49 guys who shoot 40% from beyond the arc amongst qualified players and 19 who shoot 60% inside it, if we drop the inside the arc number down to 53.3%, that gets us to 72 players. Meaning at that point, it's easier to find a 53.3% inside scorer than a 40% outside scorer
So if you want things to go back to more inside scoring focused, that's how you do it. Granted, it's not so simple as it would fundamentally change the way the game is played, but that would solve the problem people seem to have. Also granted, it would inflate scoring numbers, but for all intents and purposes, they would be the type of basketball people say they want.