Alperen Sengun is anchoring a top 5 defense. Is Jokic-like ceiling really out of the question?

[Frank Dux]

You don't realize the outlier Jokic is.

Seriously. I find it funny how people don’t seem to grasp how good Jokic has been over the last few years. We’re talking top five all time great level peak here.

Sengun is obviously really good, but he’s probably closer to a Pau Gasol type right now, than he is to an outlier like Jokic.

[Frank Dux]

You don't realize the outlier Jokic is.

I do. I stated it. That's why I said it's not fair to expect Sengun to 100% become Jokic.

You don't realize the outlier Sengun is. There can be two outliers.

Sengun isn’t an outlier. He’s a good big, but he’s still behind the top dawgs like Jokic, Embiid, Giannis.

[freestyler34]

I like how the ppl who thinks hes bad at defence refusing to trust his advanced stats but cant come up with a valid argument about why hes bad at defence

By the way saying " Rofl hes bad at defence" ,"Lol hes not anchoring anything " aint making your argument valid .

[scrabbarista]

You don't realize the outlier Jokic is.

Seriously. I find it funny how people don’t seem to grasp how good Jokic has been over the last few years. We’re talking top five all time great level peak here.

Sengun is obviously really good, but he’s probably closer to a Pau Gasol type right now, than he is to an outlier like Jokic.

Agree on Jokic.

If Sengun matches Gasol's career? Yeesh, that would be incredible. He's a borderline top fifty guy himself. (I think he's in my top fifty. Can't remember.)

[scrabbarista]

Can you make an argument that his defense is good? Not saying it's not but it doesn't seem like you can just skip to 'his team's defense is good and he plays a lot on the team, therefore he's a killer defender.' If the point of this thread is to say 'he's arrived as a legit defender' I think you have to make that case before skipping to the implications of it.

(Also small thing but 'comps' are always, always stupid. If you're paying any attention to them to evaluate a player you're already lost.)

And1 for the comps comment.

[Papi_swav]

he has to catch up to Sabonis first

[Sane]

You don't realize the outlier Jokic is.

Seriously. I find it funny how people don’t seem to grasp how good Jokic has been over the last few years. We’re talking top five all time great level peak here.

Sengun is obviously really good, but he’s probably closer to a Pau Gasol type right now, than he is to an outlier like Jokic.

Absolutely not. A 21 year old Sengun is closer to 21 year old Jokic than to 21 year old Gasol objectively speaking.

Also, please read the post. I literally said 90% of Jokic so that people wouldn't get their panties in a twist. 90% of Jokic is nowhere near an ATG but still a max player. That's what we're discussing here.

[Sane]

You don't realize the outlier Jokic is.

I do. I stated it. That's why I said it's not fair to expect Sengun to 100% become Jokic.

You don't realize the outlier Sengun is. There can be two outliers.

Sengun isn’t an outlier. He’s a good big, but he’s still behind the top dawgs like Jokic, Embiid, Giannis.

No, he is an outlier. He's a 21 year old foreigner putting up 20+ points, 9+ rebounds, 5+ assists while protecting the rim for a top 5 defense. You go do some research about how many 21 year olds have done that and that will be your homework on "What is an outlier?"

Of course he's behind those guys. The point is he's not behind those guys when they were the same age/experience. Why would he be better than those guys right now?

[Sane]

He’s even better than jokic was in his third season.

Hard disagree. Jokic was an elite player by Year 2 and was hamstrung by his coach (Malone). Jokic had superior WS/48, BPM, VORP, etc. This while enduring the disastrous season where Jokic recognized what Malone and the rest of the staff didn't - Nurkic and he couldn't coexist. So he asked to come off the bench to improve team chemistry.

Jokic in Year 2:
0.228 WS/48, 7.3 BPM, 4.8 VORP

Duncan in 2004-2005 (3rd title season):
0.245 WS/48, 7.6 BPM, 5.4 VORP

But beyond being an elite player for years 2-5, Jokic did something unthinkable - he took another leap and started one of the greatest peaks in NBA history (if not the greatest).

I love Sengun and think he's going to be a star and possibly superstar, but we're really minimizing the transcendent talent Jokic is by having every up-and-coming young big with some passing ability compared to him. There are night where Jokic has 5 assists and I'm more impressed with him than on nights he has 15+ assists because I watch him control the entire game, tell teammates where to go, make the hockey assists that only he's aware is even a scoring opportunity, etc.

Yes, I know Jokic is Sengun's favorite player and he plays similarly. But Kobe emulated Jordan and we saw he didn't really come close to matching the "magic" even though if you squinted he certainly looked the part.

Kobe and MJ are both top 10 all time lol.

So if you're out here saying Jokic can be #1 all time but Sengun can only reach #10 all time, fine lol. I wasn't even projecting him that high, but you seem pretty optimistic.

[VanWest82]

The guy who's impressed me the most defensively on Houston is probable Tari Eason. Rockets entire bench is solid there.

[Nuntius]

I made this thread because I think the guy REALLY deserves his flowers for the defense he's playing. His #1 player comp was Enes Kanter who didn't play a lick of defense or have any playmaking ability. That was insulting and slightly racist.

Whoever made that comp needs to stop watching basketball and find a new hobby, obviously cant comprehend this sport outside of ethnic and racial lines.

Yep. That was always an extremely lazy player (and as the OP said, slightly racist) player comp that deserved to be called out.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

Fred's going to get maxed.

[Nuntius]

Sengun is very flashy so his offense will always steal the spotlight but the reason he has elevated so much is that in the other 50% of the game, he is playing very good defense. This is a shocking development, most people thought he wouldn't be able to do that in his entire career.

It shouldn't be that shocking of a development, to be honest. Sengun has always been a really solid defender. Even before being drafted in the NBA, he had very good stock (steals+blocks) numbers in his native Turkey. Anyone who thought that Sengun would struggle defensively wasn't really paying attention.

[holdenwait]

Don't care much about the comparison obsession, therefore all the baby Jokic narrative, but have to say I am so impressed with his defensive improvement. Much tougher, focused, stays with the attacker the whole way thru a move usually and doesn't get into much foul trouble like in his first two years. becoming a solid two way player, and again only 21 years old. Sky's the limit for my man ❤️

[HotelVitale]

Sengun is very flashy so his offense will always steal the spotlight but the reason he has elevated so much is that in the other 50% of the game, he is playing very good defense. This is a shocking development, most people thought he wouldn't be able to do that in his entire career.

It shouldn't be that shocking of a development, to be honest. Sengun has always been a really solid defender. Even before being drafted in the NBA, he had very good stock (steals+blocks) numbers in his native Turkey. Anyone who thought that Sengun would struggle defensively wasn't really paying attention.

Steals don't necessarily make a good defender, especially not for a center or rim defender type. (He's also one of the lowest centers in the league in blocks per minute, the numbers aren't horrendous but they're not going to make an argument for him as a good defender.)

People at draft time thought he might struggle defensively because of a lot of the usual things: not very tall or long (also can't really jump to make up for it), doesn't have quick lateral feet, pretty hopeless on the perimeter. Even his strongest supporters thought he'd be at best underwhelming on the defensive end of the court.

If he's actually good now on defense, I'm guessing it'd be because he's been great at positioning and anticipation, and uses his strength and quick hands well.

[ThatBoyNick]

Fred's going to get maxed.

He already was lol

This is also an interesting subject, a lot of people clowned Houston HARD for paying Fred and Dillon, including me (I was more upset about Dillon, after learning Fred's 3rd year was a team option). But both players have until this point have completely lived up to their contracts.

Fred is looking like CP3 lite in Houston and I'm loving it.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

Fred's going to get maxed.

He already was lol

This is also an interesting subject, a lot of people clowned Houston HARD for paying Fred and Dillon, including me (I was more upset about Dillon, after learning Fred's 3rd year was a team option). But both players have until this point have completely lived up to their contracts.

Fred is looking like CP3 lite in Houston and I'm loving it.

He's still angling for another longer contract after this one. Sengun's prosperity is tied to Fred, just the way he likes it.

[ThatBoyNick]

He's still angling for another longer contract after this one. Sengun's prosperity is tied to Fred, just the way he likes it.

Not only does Fred have a career high assist rate, but the lowest USG rate since he was 24 (when he came off the bench). Siakam, Barrett, Quickley, Barnes, and Achiuwa all have higher USG rates than Fred right now.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

He's still angling for another longer contract after this one. Sengun's prosperity is tied to Fred, just the way he likes it.

Not only does Fred have a career high assist rate, but the lowest USG rate since he was 24 (when he came off the bench). Siakam, Barrett, Quickley, Barnes, and Achiuwa all have higher USG rates than Fred right now.

Sure, and Green's taken a step backwards. Fred's picking the winners.

[ThatBoyNick]

Sure, and Green's taken a step backwards. Fred's picking the winners.

I wish it were that simple for Jalen, but the reality is Jalen only takes 0.4 fewer FGAs per 36 than Sengun (3.5 FGAs greater than Fred). Greens USG rate is only 0.9% lower than Senguns, and 6.6% higher then Freds.

Jalen's performance has been pretty similar to last season per minute, the biggest difference for Jalen has been the coaching change. Ime has been benching Jalen in competitive 4th Q's whenever he's having bad games (quite often), Silas never did this (probably a order from the FO) Jalen as a result is averaging 4 fewer mpg this season.

Only person hurting Jalen has been Jalen, he's gotten tons of opportunities but has continued to be violently inconsistent, and on average just not good enough.