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Celts Get Caught in a Thunderstorm! Loss vs OKC 1/2/24

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Re: Celts Get Caught in a Thunderstorm! Loss vs OKC 1/2/24 

Post#241 » by fallguy » Fri Jan 5, 2024 12:19 am

tfmiii wrote:
fallguy wrote:
BK_2020 wrote:Jokic, Embiid, Giannis, Curry, KD, AD, Luka clearly ahead of him. There's no way Tatum is in the convo for top 5. It's arguable SGA and Haliburton are ahead though they don't have Tatum's defense or the track record. Butler doesn't have Tatum's numbers but we know that he's in the same tier. I think Tatum belongs in the cluster of late top 10.
Meanwhile the Big Three Celtics had KG who was a top 3 player at worst, Pierce who was clearly top 10, and Ray Allen clearly top 15.
Also we are supposed to have won 70% of the games last year on talent alone despite Joe's bad coaching yet all the former Celtics are stinking it up.


Agree with most of your list. But would excise Haliburton and I expect AD will eventually fall off when he gets hurt. But your point stands. Tatum, however great he has been, isn't top-5 this season.

I think (?) most of the angst on the board with respect to Tatum speaks to a lack of confidence that he can elevate to be a top-5 player for three rounds of the playoffs (we won't need it in round one). Even with our talent advantage, we'll need Tatum to be That Guy™ for the final three rounds. It's fair to wonder if he will be, given that he hasn't done it yet. But it's also fair to believe this is his year given what we've seen from him so far.

My major concern with Tatum is that he's miscast as a "closer" - the guy who can initiate the offense and make the key shot or pass when it's absolutely needed.

I can see why he's been put in that role in the past given the team construction, but I think placing him in that role now is a disservice to him and the team.

He can make the last shot, he's proven that, but I've a problem with him being forced to initiate in those situations, like forcing a square peg in round hole. The end of quarter shots are an exaggerated microcosm of the issue. We shouldn't put him in a position he struggles in.

He's elite at everything else, and that's fine! Lots of all-time greats depended in part on PGs setting the table, it's a team sport after all.

Our recent past playoff struggles have been due to TOs and stagnant offense. Putting JT or alternating with JB at the point of initiative is a large part of the reason why. We have better alternatives now - let's use them.


I mostly agree with this. I think Tatum *can* initiate but please god not at the top of the arc while everyone stands around. Put him in the low post. Put him at the elbow. Get him in motion (not a thing we like to do).
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Re: Celts Get Caught in a Thunderstorm! Loss vs OKC 1/2/24 

Post#242 » by ConstableGeneva » Fri Jan 5, 2024 12:55 am

fallguy wrote:
tfmiii wrote:
fallguy wrote:
Agree with most of your list. But would excise Haliburton and I expect AD will eventually fall off when he gets hurt. But your point stands. Tatum, however great he has been, isn't top-5 this season.

I think (?) most of the angst on the board with respect to Tatum speaks to a lack of confidence that he can elevate to be a top-5 player for three rounds of the playoffs (we won't need it in round one). Even with our talent advantage, we'll need Tatum to be That Guy™ for the final three rounds. It's fair to wonder if he will be, given that he hasn't done it yet. But it's also fair to believe this is his year given what we've seen from him so far.

My major concern with Tatum is that he's miscast as a "closer" - the guy who can initiate the offense and make the key shot or pass when it's absolutely needed.

I can see why he's been put in that role in the past given the team construction, but I think placing him in that role now is a disservice to him and the team.

He can make the last shot, he's proven that, but I've a problem with him being forced to initiate in those situations, like forcing a square peg in round hole. The end of quarter shots are an exaggerated microcosm of the issue. We shouldn't put him in a position he struggles in.

He's elite at everything else, and that's fine! Lots of all-time greats depended in part on PGs setting the table, it's a team sport after all.

Our recent past playoff struggles have been due to TOs and stagnant offense. Putting JT or alternating with JB at the point of initiative is a large part of the reason why. We have better alternatives now - let's use them.


I mostly agree with this. I think Tatum *can* initiate but please god not at the top of the arc while everyone stands around. Put him in the low post. Put him at the elbow. Get him in motion (not a thing we like to do).

This is so known by now that Iggy even mentioned it in his podcast. It's on everyone's late-game scouting report by now. Can we be more creative than that? We had one of the best closers in IT years ago and Brad still called actual plays that got other players great looks for gamewinners.
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Re: Celts Get Caught in a Thunderstorm! Loss vs OKC 1/2/24 

Post#243 » by Jaqua92 » Fri Jan 5, 2024 1:00 am

Shak_Celts wrote:
Jaqua92 wrote:
Shak_Celts wrote:He defended him just fine last night.


No. He didn't. Lol.

Shai was torching everyone all game until Tatum picked him up.

show me. he didn't guard him much but he didn't get torched. i only remember 1 bucket but there must be a lot more i missed.


He got to the rim at will, and no one could keep him out of the paint except for Tatum.

It's not about preventing him from scoring, it's about preventing paint penetration and what that does to the the team defense.
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Re: Celts Get Caught in a Thunderstorm! Loss vs OKC 1/2/24 

Post#244 » by KillahGhostface » Fri Jan 5, 2024 1:06 am

ConstableGeneva wrote:
fallguy wrote:
tfmiii wrote:My major concern with Tatum is that he's miscast as a "closer" - the guy who can initiate the offense and make the key shot or pass when it's absolutely needed.

I can see why he's been put in that role in the past given the team construction, but I think placing him in that role now is a disservice to him and the team.

He can make the last shot, he's proven that, but I've a problem with him being forced to initiate in those situations, like forcing a square peg in round hole. The end of quarter shots are an exaggerated microcosm of the issue. We shouldn't put him in a position he struggles in.

He's elite at everything else, and that's fine! Lots of all-time greats depended in part on PGs setting the table, it's a team sport after all.

Our recent past playoff struggles have been due to TOs and stagnant offense. Putting JT or alternating with JB at the point of initiative is a large part of the reason why. We have better alternatives now - let's use them.


I mostly agree with this. I think Tatum *can* initiate but please god not at the top of the arc while everyone stands around. Put him in the low post. Put him at the elbow. Get him in motion (not a thing we like to do).

This is so known by now that Iggy even mentioned it in his podcast. It's on everyone's late-game scouting report by now. Can we be more creative than that? We had one of the best closers in IT years ago and Brad still called actual plays that got other players great looks for gamewinners.


They’ve changed it up quite a bit this year in the clutch. Tatum, Jaylen, White, and KP all have taken between 17-26 shots in crunch time, which is about as even a spread as you’ll see. Tatum’s usage is the highest at 28%, which is a really low number for a top guy in crunch time.

Probably tied into the +18 crunch time net rating lol.
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Re: Celts Get Caught in a Thunderstorm! Loss vs OKC 1/2/24 

Post#245 » by ConstableGeneva » Fri Jan 5, 2024 1:09 am

KillahGhostface wrote:
ConstableGeneva wrote:
fallguy wrote:
I mostly agree with this. I think Tatum *can* initiate but please god not at the top of the arc while everyone stands around. Put him in the low post. Put him at the elbow. Get him in motion (not a thing we like to do).

This is so known by now that Iggy even mentioned it in his podcast. It's on everyone's late-game scouting report by now. Can we be more creative than that? We had one of the best closers in IT years ago and Brad still called actual plays that got other players great looks for gamewinners.


They’ve changed it up quite a bit this year in the clutch. Tatum, Jaylen, White, and KP all have taken between 17-26 shots in crunch time, which is about as even a spread as you’ll see. Tatum’s usage is the highest at 28%, which is a really low number for a top guy in crunch time.

Probably tied into the +18 crunch time net rating lol.

It's the regular season which paraphrasing/misquoting you, doesn't matter much. I wanna see if they do apply this in the playoffs. But in previous postseasons dating back to Stevens in 2020, we've seen the same late-game offense.
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Re: Celts Get Caught in a Thunderstorm! Loss vs OKC 1/2/24 

Post#246 » by KillahGhostface » Fri Jan 5, 2024 1:23 am

ConstableGeneva wrote:
KillahGhostface wrote:
ConstableGeneva wrote:This is so known by now that Iggy even mentioned it in his podcast. It's on everyone's late-game scouting report by now. Can we be more creative than that? We had one of the best closers in IT years ago and Brad still called actual plays that got other players great looks for gamewinners.


They’ve changed it up quite a bit this year in the clutch. Tatum, Jaylen, White, and KP all have taken between 17-26 shots in crunch time, which is about as even a spread as you’ll see. Tatum’s usage is the highest at 28%, which is a really low number for a top guy in crunch time.

Probably tied into the +18 crunch time net rating lol.

It's the regular season which paraphrasing/misquoting you, doesn't matter much. I wanna see if they do apply this in the playoffs. But in previous postseasons dating back to Stevens in 2020, we've seen the same late-game offense.


Crunch time is one of the few things I am taking from the regular season. I think they’ve found their bread and butter play with Tatum/KP/White, and Jaylen and Holiday in the corners. That’s not something I think they’d move away from, but I love to be disappointed, so.
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Re: Celts Get Caught in a Thunderstorm! Loss vs OKC 1/2/24 

Post#247 » by tfmiii » Fri Jan 5, 2024 2:05 am

KillahGhostface wrote:
ConstableGeneva wrote:
KillahGhostface wrote:
They’ve changed it up quite a bit this year in the clutch. Tatum, Jaylen, White, and KP all have taken between 17-26 shots in crunch time, which is about as even a spread as you’ll see. Tatum’s usage is the highest at 28%, which is a really low number for a top guy in crunch time.

Probably tied into the +18 crunch time net rating lol.

It's the regular season which paraphrasing/misquoting you, doesn't matter much. I wanna see if they do apply this in the playoffs. But in previous postseasons dating back to Stevens in 2020, we've seen the same late-game offense.


Crunch time is one of the few things I am taking from the regular season. I think they’ve found their bread and butter play with Tatum/KP/White, and Jaylen and Holiday in the corners. That’s not something I think they’d move away from, but I love to be disappointed, so.

Curious, what counts as crunch time in the #s you cite?
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Re: Celts Get Caught in a Thunderstorm! Loss vs OKC 1/2/24 

Post#248 » by KillahGhostface » Fri Jan 5, 2024 2:08 am

tfmiii wrote:
KillahGhostface wrote:
ConstableGeneva wrote:It's the regular season which paraphrasing/misquoting you, doesn't matter much. I wanna see if they do apply this in the playoffs. But in previous postseasons dating back to Stevens in 2020, we've seen the same late-game offense.


Crunch time is one of the few things I am taking from the regular season. I think they’ve found their bread and butter play with Tatum/KP/White, and Jaylen and Holiday in the corners. That’s not something I think they’d move away from, but I love to be disappointed, so.

Curious, what counts as crunch time in the #s you cite?


Think it’s within 5 points either way, in the last five minutes. I think it should be 10 points now, personally. The way the three ball is shot now changes what constitutes a close game.
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Re: Celts Get Caught in a Thunderstorm! Loss vs OKC 1/2/24 

Post#249 » by tfmiii » Fri Jan 5, 2024 2:09 am

KillahGhostface wrote:
tfmiii wrote:
KillahGhostface wrote:
Crunch time is one of the few things I am taking from the regular season. I think they’ve found their bread and butter play with Tatum/KP/White, and Jaylen and Holiday in the corners. That’s not something I think they’d move away from, but I love to be disappointed, so.

Curious, what counts as crunch time in the #s you cite?


Think it’s within 5 points either way, in the last five minutes. I think it should be 10 points now, personally. The way the three ball is shot now changes what constitutes a close game.

Thanks! :D
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Re: Celts Get Caught in a Thunderstorm! Loss vs OKC 1/2/24 

Post#250 » by BK_2020 » Fri Jan 5, 2024 3:41 am

Crunch time is mostly luck anyway.
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Re: Celts Get Caught in a Thunderstorm! Loss vs OKC 1/2/24 

Post#251 » by Shak_Celts » Fri Jan 5, 2024 4:55 pm

Jaqua92 wrote:
Shak_Celts wrote:
Jaqua92 wrote:
No. He didn't. Lol.

Shai was torching everyone all game until Tatum picked him up.

show me. he didn't guard him much but he didn't get torched. i only remember 1 bucket but there must be a lot more i missed.


He got to the rim at will, and no one could keep him out of the paint except for Tatum.

It's not about preventing him from scoring, it's about preventing paint penetration and what that does to the the team defense.


Show me it was JB, defensively. He was horrible shooting/scoring but that isn’t what we’re discussing. I’ve seen it again and that was the worst defensive outing I have seen by both White and Jrue, they both got destroyed multiple times and it wasn’t just Shai.
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Re: Celts Get Caught in a Thunderstorm! Loss vs OKC 1/2/24 

Post#252 » by steefP2 » Fri Jan 5, 2024 5:17 pm

Shak_Celts wrote:
Jaqua92 wrote:
Shak_Celts wrote:show me. he didn't guard him much but he didn't get torched. i only remember 1 bucket but there must be a lot more i missed.


He got to the rim at will, and no one could keep him out of the paint except for Tatum.

It's not about preventing him from scoring, it's about preventing paint penetration and what that does to the the team defense.


Show me it was JB, defensively. He was horrible shooting/scoring but that isn’t what we’re discussing. I’ve seen it again and that was the worst defensive outing I have seen by both White and Jrue, they both got destroyed multiple times and it wasn’t just Shai.


You can look at all of Shai's field goal attempts, doesn't show when he got fouled but still smth.


https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&ContextMeasure=FGA&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0022300462&PlayerID=1628983&RangeType=0&Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612760&flag=3&sct=plot&section=game


Aside from that we have the nba matchup tracking data which isn't amazing but also not nothing.

Image


https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612738/matchups?CF=OFF_PLAYER_NAME*E*shai&dir=A&sort=OFF_PLAYER_NAME
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Re: Celts Get Caught in a Thunderstorm! Loss vs OKC 1/2/24 

Post#253 » by Shak_Celts » Fri Jan 5, 2024 6:06 pm

steefP2 wrote:
Shak_Celts wrote:
Jaqua92 wrote:
He got to the rim at will, and no one could keep him out of the paint except for Tatum.

It's not about preventing him from scoring, it's about preventing paint penetration and what that does to the the team defense.


Show me it was JB, defensively. He was horrible shooting/scoring but that isn’t what we’re discussing. I’ve seen it again and that was the worst defensive outing I have seen by both White and Jrue, they both got destroyed multiple times and it wasn’t just Shai.


You can look at all of Shai's field goal attempts, doesn't show when he got fouled but still smth.


https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&ContextMeasure=FGA&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0022300462&PlayerID=1628983&RangeType=0&Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612760&flag=3&sct=plot&section=game


Aside from that we have the nba matchup tracking data which isn't amazing but also not nothing.

Image


https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612738/matchups?CF=OFF_PLAYER_NAME*E*shai&dir=A&sort=OFF_PLAYER_NAME


Maybe I’m reading it wrong but it looks like it agrees with what i said.
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Re: Celts Get Caught in a Thunderstorm! Loss vs OKC 1/2/24 

Post#254 » by steefP2 » Fri Jan 5, 2024 6:37 pm

Shak_Celts wrote:
steefP2 wrote:
Shak_Celts wrote:
Show me it was JB, defensively. He was horrible shooting/scoring but that isn’t what we’re discussing. I’ve seen it again and that was the worst defensive outing I have seen by both White and Jrue, they both got destroyed multiple times and it wasn’t just Shai.


You can look at all of Shai's field goal attempts, doesn't show when he got fouled but still smth.


https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&ContextMeasure=FGA&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0022300462&PlayerID=1628983&RangeType=0&Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612760&flag=3&sct=plot&section=game


Aside from that we have the nba matchup tracking data which isn't amazing but also not nothing.

Image


https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612738/matchups?CF=OFF_PLAYER_NAME*E*shai&dir=A&sort=OFF_PLAYER_NAME


Maybe I’m reading it wrong but it looks like it agrees with what i said.





Oh I wasnt taking a stance; just offering up resources so we can check stuff. Jb got cooked once or twice but everyone did at least a few times. I think Jb would do an ok but not amazing job over a series
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Re: Celts Get Caught in a Thunderstorm! Loss vs OKC 1/2/24 

Post#255 » by Shak_Celts » Fri Jan 5, 2024 11:07 pm

steefP2 wrote:
Shak_Celts wrote:


Maybe I’m reading it wrong but it looks like it agrees with what i said.





Oh I wasnt taking a stance; just offering up resources so we can check stuff. Jb got cooked once or twice but everyone did at least a few times. I think Jb would do an ok but not amazing job over a series

I didn’t think you were just thought it agreed with my stance. As I said, the people being cooked was jrue and white. Brown was terrible shooting he wasn’t getting destroyed by Shai. If he was destroyed then Tatum was, because he had a bucket and assist on brown and a bucket and 2 assist on Tatum.

It doesn’t really matter, just wanted to say if it happened, i missed it. Didn’t say it was impossible for it to be true, I just didnt remember it happening that way. I’m wrong a lot so i couldn’t say for sure, first watch while chatting lends to some of my bias. :lol:
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Re: Celts Get Caught in a Thunderstorm! Loss vs OKC 1/2/24 

Post#256 » by BK_2020 » Fri Jan 5, 2024 11:18 pm

Shak_Celts wrote:
steefP2 wrote:
Shak_Celts wrote:
Maybe I’m reading it wrong but it looks like it agrees with what i said.





Oh I wasnt taking a stance; just offering up resources so we can check stuff. Jb got cooked once or twice but everyone did at least a few times. I think Jb would do an ok but not amazing job over a series

I didn’t think you were just thought it agreed with my stance. As I said, the people being cooked was jrue and white. Brown was terrible shooting he wasn’t getting destroyed by Shai. If he was destroyed then Tatum was, because he had a bucket and assist on brown and a bucket and 2 assist on Tatum.

It doesn’t really matter, just wanted to say if it happened, i missed it. Didn’t say it was impossible for it to be true, I just didnt remember it happening that way. I’m wrong a lot so i couldn’t say for sure, first watch while chatting lends to some of my bias. :lol:

Shai had a bucket and an assist on both Tatum and Brown is one way to look at it. Another way is Shai shot 100% against Jaylen and 25% against Tatum.
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Re: Celts Get Caught in a Thunderstorm! Loss vs OKC 1/2/24 

Post#257 » by Shak_Celts » Fri Jan 5, 2024 11:30 pm

BK_2020 wrote:
Shak_Celts wrote:
steefP2 wrote:



Oh I wasnt taking a stance; just offering up resources so we can check stuff. Jb got cooked once or twice but everyone did at least a few times. I think Jb would do an ok but not amazing job over a series

I didn’t think you were just thought it agreed with my stance. As I said, the people being cooked was jrue and white. Brown was terrible shooting he wasn’t getting destroyed by Shai. If he was destroyed then Tatum was, because he had a bucket and assist on brown and a bucket and 2 assist on Tatum.

It doesn’t really matter, just wanted to say if it happened, i missed it. Didn’t say it was impossible for it to be true, I just didnt remember it happening that way. I’m wrong a lot so i couldn’t say for sure, first watch while chatting lends to some of my bias. :lol:

Shai had a bucket and an assist on both Tatum and Brown is one way to look at it. Another way is Shai shot 100% against Jaylen and 25% against Tatum.

another way to look at is he was allowed to get off ONLY one shot since we're throwing around irrelevant things. Furthermore, this isn't about Tatum, it's about the bias on what did or didn't happen. i get it, jb isn't who yall want, but at least don't add on wrong things... that and/or be okay with being wrong sometimes.

Edit: your comment just proves I'm not wrong fwiw.
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