AEnigma wrote:Would be interested in some debate/discussion for Pau versus Parish. I feel like the other three have relatively clear cases of their own (starting to lean more toward Thurmond), but for these two, prime to prime and career to career is a tough point of separation for me.
Felt compelled to respond to your post.
Pau/Parish is a tough question. I'd say:
Defensively - clearly Parish
Playmaking - clearly Gasol(look at A:T ratio)
Scoring - fairly even, very comparable in both volume and efficiency, though longevity may give Parish an edge in that he has 10 100+ TS Add seasons while Gasol has 7.
Rebounding - fairly even, though Parish might have a very slight edge
What may give Gasol an additional edge is a question of primacy, in that Gasol was a #1 in Memphis(not that they accomplished much) and a #2 in LA, and Parish was only ever - at least in perception - a #3 in Boston.
Can't say I have a definitive position yet.
For nominations, I continue to see Hayes as the easiest case on the board by career longevity + accomplishment, by which I mean, I think he comfortably exceeds Unseld and Cousy in career length and also exceeds everyone else in NBA accomplishments. I also think the data suggests that Hayes was on average more significant to his teams than Unseld was to his, although I acknowledge neither’s impact profile impresses much, especially in contrast with someone’s like Thurmond’s.
I find myself a Hayes skeptic. You cite longevity and accomplishment, and I get that, but here's what I get from his box numbers:
1. He looks like Webber in that he consistently scores a lot of points on questionable efficiency at PF. In fact, his relative efficiency over his career is even marginally worse than Webber.
2. Unlike Webber, who was an elite playmaker from the PF position, Hayes's turnovers consistently outpaced his assists(albeit turnovers weren't tracked until 1977-78, but that still includes the Bullets' title run in 78 and Finals run in 79).
3. He does look like a good rebounder, but the inefficiency+poor turnover economy/assist-turnover ratio rise doubt in me.
So I'm left thinking, in order for Hayes to warrant a placement this high(and he was #59 last time), he most provide some exceptional non-box - probably defensive - impact. Unfortunately we don't have RAPM or on/off or anything like that for Hayes, and I admittedly haven't watched much of him.
So, if some kind of evidence can be presented proving that non-box impact, I could be swayed to revise my opinion, but based on what I'm seeing in the box, there's nothing to separate him from Webber(someone who there doesn't seem to be much excitement for) other than longevity and the fact that he won it all.
For my alternate nomination (/ strategic primary), I am principally inclined toward Paul George
Hmm. I am by nature very hesitant about active players getting in, especially at this point in the contest, and if I were going to champion an active player, there's probably 2-3 that might have a stronger case(thinking Dame, Tatum, some are arguing Gobert), and I probably won't be championing them either. By my count, there were twelve then-active players on the 2020 list, and we've already got thirteen active players in this time and we're only at #60. Seems to me George's case would be built primarily on his admittedly strong on/off numbers(both RS and PO), but I don't see anything else that jumps out at me.
but will likely join in on one of the 2004 Pistons. There too, I would be interested in seeing some points of comparison, because I have always perhaps lazily placed them all in a similar tier.
[n.b. As a mild tiebreaker, I appreciate that Billups and Rasheed have kept pace with league evolution much better than Ben has.]
Well, at the least I'd say Rip and Tayshaun are clearly below the other three.
The question with Big Ben is how much him being a zero offensively hurts him. No question he anchored those defenses and was deserving of those DPOYs, but when you look at his D-RAPM in his peak years, it's >4 and <5, which is great, no doubt, sort of on par with Zo's prime DRPAMs but less than Mutombo's prime DRAPMs. And he gives you nothing offensively. I'd be weary about the project overrating him a bit.
Billups has a reputation as a two-way player, but his DRAPMs don't really reflect a big defensive impact(his career-high DRAPM is 0.45 in 08-09, which was mostly with the Nuggets). I do think he was a solid enough man defender though, and he was a good, efficient scorer and
great playmaker in his prime, and he seemed to have the clutch gene.
Both Ben and Billups have longevity issues though - not in terms of how long they played, but how long they were really impactful.
Billups took five years to get going, and then had injuries late in his career, so he had maybe eight really good years.
Ben likewise was undrafted in 1996 and nobody really took notice of him until he got to Detroit in 2000, and by the time he got to Chicago in 2006, he was already perceived as being in decline(which is reflected in his RAPM taking a dive after leaving Detroit, though primarily on the offensive side, where he went from a zero to a negative).
In contrast, Rasheed had, I would argue, as many as twelve high-quality years and was perhaps the best two-way player of the three. His RAPM throughout his prime is somewhat surprisingly strong, and it's built on both sides of the ball per ORAPM and DRAPM.
98: 4.61
99: 6.90
00: 6:18
01: 3.10
02: 4.57
03: 4.58
04: 6.55
05: 4.88
06: 4.74
07: 2.55
08: 2.80
09: 2.65
Not really as efficient a scorer as I'd expect given he had range out to the three-point line, but still in the positive for his career by a slim margin.
He positively impacted the game on both ends and had, IMO, a sky-high basketball IQ that he was not always given credit for due to his goofball personality and his hotheadedness in his younger days.
It's also worth noting that Rasheed, for his career, has the highest RS on/off at +7.0(Ben is +4.8, Billups +2.5). Though to be fair, it's reversed in the postseason, where Billups leads at +9.3, Ben at +8.0, and Rasheed at +2.2.
For reference, last time, Billups was #46, Rasheed #72, and Ben #81. Maybe too high for Billups, but reasonable for the others.
